我國65歲以上的老年人口，於民國82年底達總人口比率7.1％，正式邁入聯合國世界衛生組織所稱之高齡化社會（7％以上）。根據行政院經濟建設委員會之推估，65歲以上的老年人口比例於97年將達總人口數之10.15％，而於116年達總人口數之20.04％，人口老化速度明顯高於歐美國家，未來人口年齡結構將更趨於高齡化。隨著我國老年人口成長，社會安全制度日益受到重視，提供老人經濟安全之適度保障將成為我國未來福利發展之新方向。 本研究根據世界銀行提出的「三層保障」之老年經濟安全保障制度架構為基礎，說明我國公務人員退休制度在老年經濟安全保障方案之定位，闡述有關第二層保障之職業退休金制度理論演變，以釐清公務人員退休金之屬性及正當性，以助於退休制度及其財務規劃的擬定，期使整套制度循著適當的理論脈絡而發展。基於對退休金重要性的認知，先進國家早已發展成熟的職業退休金制度，而我國公務人員退休制度係建制於民國32年，實施50餘年，雖歷經4次修正，由於退休金給付方式仍屬於恩給制，除造成財政上重大負擔外，也產生退休給與偏低等嚴重問題，相關機關自62年開始研究改革，經過22年研議規劃完成，自84年7月1日實施退休新制，其與舊制最大的差異，是將退休經費籌措方式，由政府編列預算支付之恩給制，改由政府與公務人員共同撥繳費用成立退撫基金之共同提撥制，其餘退休對象、退休年資、退休條件、核給退休金原則大致維持不變，而退休金給付方式，也維持著確定給付制。經分析新退休制度之主要內容，實施迄今8年餘，有關改進退撫經費籌措方式，減輕政府財政負擔；及提高退撫所得，加強安老卹孤之改革目標，均已獲致初步成效。然而現階段面臨之問題，是退休經費導致各級政府財政負擔增加，且依公務人員退休撫卹基金管理委員會委託基金精算結果也顯示基金將面臨財務危機。 本研究係分析新制退休金給付方式，全面採行確定提撥制，對解決基金現存財務危機之可行性，為便於瞭解，爰敘明確定提撥制與確定給付制之意涵與優、缺點，及我國採用此兩種制度之適例。茲因退休金給付方式之政策變革方案，影響層面甚廣，方案之可行性如何，必須審慎探討與分析，爰就制度變革方案可行性列舉幾項評估面向進行分析。 例如為解決基金財務問題，除必須從經濟上分析外，茲因制度變革方案，必須符合現時的政治生態，始能確保政策推行之成果，方案的周詳與否，關係到該方案能否被接受及未來能否順利執行。由於退休舊制恩給制時期，因退休經費籌措方式不當，同樣存在著財政負擔之問題及缺失，其能於84年7月改革成功推動新退休制度，在政治方面包括政黨、民意機關、相關主管機關、公務人員，甚至學者等等支持的因素，在現今新制推行後，為解決財政問題，而將退休金給付方式，全面改採確定提撥制，是否同樣具有政治上支持的可能性，自須審慎分析；此外，退休金政策之改變，直接受影響的便是公務人員之退休所得，在退休金採行確定提撥制後，是否仍能達成新制推行時所設定之提高退撫所得、加強安老卹孤改革目標，應為關鍵之所在，由於職業退休金理論中之維持適當生活，係本研究在規劃退休金制度時所考量的重點，因退休後的生活水準應能與退休前相當，乃是探討退休金制度的核心，爰列為評估面向。又世界各國實施公務員退休金制度之經驗，包括採行確定給付制與確定提撥制例證，及面臨困境或改革之趨勢，均能在我國制訂退休金政策時有所啟示，故亦列為評估面向。本研究依據上述重要項目進行整體性評估，針對現存政經環境及職業特性，歸納我國新制退休金採行確定給付制或確定提撥制之個別效益，深入檢討何種給付方式較能維持公務人員權益？及退休前之生活水準？藉以說明並支持可行方案，以作為方案選擇之參據。最後提出本研究之結論與研究發現，進而本於基金能否永續經營，將是制度得否存續的關鍵，減少財務潛在危機，應具有合理的制度設計與有效的經營管理之基本條件，爰研擬若干建議措施，以降低財政問題的嚴重性，俾確保基金日後退休給付之能力，保障參加基金人員之權益。 / Taiwan has officially joined the “aging society” as defined by the WHO (up to 7% of the senior citizen ratio) because senior citizens aged over 65 accounted for 7.1% as of December 31, 1993. The official forecast by the Council of Economic Planning & Development of the Executive Yuan (the Cabinet) indicates that the senior population age over 65 will hit 10.15% of the total population by 2008 and even up to 20.04％ by the year 2027. Taiwan significantly outpaces their European and American counterparts in terms of the ratio of aging citizens. The aging society problems will likely turn from bad to worse in the future. In turn, the social security system is receiving mounting awareness and attention. The efforts to provide sound financial standing, secured social systems and protection to senior citizens will represent the new orientation of future welfare development in Taiwan. The present study takes the “Three-Level Assurance” oriented senior citizen financial security system proposed by the World Bank as the very grounds to elucidate the positioning of the Public Servant System in the senior citizen financial security system, annotate the evolution pension system of the Second-level Assurance to clarify the attribute and justification of the pension granted to civil servants. The present study is intended to help draw up a retirement system and financial planning so that the entire system will develop toward appropriate and justified orientation. With awareness of the importance of pension, those advanced countries have developed sound and mature professional pension systems for quite some time already. In the Republic of China, the retirement system for civil servants was initiated in 1943 and has been updated four times during the subsequent half century. The pension has been granted as a sort of benefit, or a government favor. As a result, pension to civil servants has become a heavy financial burden to the government and has been illogically insufficient. In response, the competent authorities concerned began initiating research for a reform of the pension system in 1973 and completed the research program 22 years later. The new retirement system was officially put into place on July 1, 1995. Between the old and new retirement system, the greatest difference is that the pension fund is jointly contributed by both the government and civil servants themselves in the new system instead of being solely budgeted by the government as a sort of government favor in the old system. Except for this, the aspects of the target retirees, seniority requirements, prerequisites for retirement and the principles to grant pension largely remain unchanged. Pension is paid in an unchanged “Defined Benefit Plan”. Now, with the new system in enforcement for over eight years, the new system proves to have primarily attained the goals in improving the method of pension fund raising, easing up the government’s financial burden, providing added pension to retirees and better safeguarding the senior civil servants. The problems currently confronting the pension practice are largely the mounting financial burden to the government as incurred by the retirement expenses. Meanwhile, the actual calculation outcome consigned by the Pension Management Committee indicates that the Pension Fund is on the verge of financial difficulties. The present study is to analyze the terms of pension payment to determine the feasibility there-of and to solve the present financial problem by means of the “Defined Contribution Plan”. For better a understanding into the issues, the present study elucidates the connotation, strengths and weaknesses of the “Defined Contribution Plan” and “Defined Benefit Plan”, as well as the precedents in Taiwan in adopting such two systems. Where a reform in the policy of pension payments will create quite an extensive impact, the feasibility of the policies calls for prudent analysis to enumerate a few feasible alternatives before further analyses into a few aspects of the assessment. To solve the financial difficulties in the Pension Fund, for instance, other than the economic analyses, the reform of the system must live up to the current political ecology before it can ensure the effects expected through the enforcement. Whether or not the policies are detailed and comprehensive enough will determine whether or not the policies are acceptable and whether or not they can be put into successful enforcement without a ensuing problems. During the extended practice under the old system while pension was budgeted as a sort of government favor, the pension system led to a heavy financial burden and shortcomings on the government. The new pension system was successfully put into enforcement in July 1995, thanks to the unanimous support from the political parties, congress, competent authorities concerned, civil servants as well as scholars. Now, in an effort to solve the current financial problems under the new system, the pension will be paid under the “Defined Contribution Plan”. Will the present reform receive equal political support? It calls for well-advised analyses. Besides, in a change in the pension system, the top impact will be upon the pension income to civil servants. After the pension is under the “Defined Contribution Plan”, will civil servants receive added pension income and receive better security in their retired life? These will be the key issues under the present study. The core consideration should aim at the retired lifestyle, which should be equivalent to the pre-retirement one. The hands-on experiences in enforcing civil servant pension systems accumulated in other countries the world over, including precedents of their practices in adopting the “Defined Benefit Plan” and “Defined Contribution Plan” will function as the constructive examples in Taiwan’s policymaking process regarding pension systems, and will be, therefore, be covered in the assessment in the present study as well. The present study will launch an overall assessment on the aforementioned key issues. Aiming at the existent political and economic climate as well as the professional characteristics, the present study will generalize the individual effects and benefits under “Defined Benefit Plan” or “Defined Contribution Plan” under the new retirement system to find out the optimal terms of payment to assure maximum possible benefits to civil servants, safeguard the quality of their retired lifestyle to be equivalent to the pre-retirement lifestyle. The findings and conclusions yielded through the present study will function as handy reference materials for policymaking. By submitting the findings and conclusions so yielded, the study will help the policymakers draw up sound enforcement rules to ensure the sustained existence of the Pension Fund, alleviate the potential financial crises through reasonable design of systems and effective management as the very fundamentals. Further by offering constructive proposals, the study will help the competent authorities of the government solve the financial difficulties to ensure sustained sound competence of pension payments and to, in turn, safeguard the Pension Fund and the Fund’s beneficiaries.

退休制度與社會安全體系之良窳息息相關，在現今政府財政愈見困窘之情況下，世界各國對於退休制度均進行相關之改革，尤其在老年化與少子化衝擊之下，如何建構適當與合理的退休制度，實是政府不得不正視的課題。 我國公務人員退休制度行之已久，最廣為人知的變革即為1995年的退撫新制，近期則為2011年1月1日實施之改革，但是上述兩次修正，均屬對退休法制整體之改革，而國內對於退休法制中的重要制度卻付之闕如；尤其在現行社會環境快速變遷之下，有關退休法制中的傷殘命令退休制度是否應隨之有所修正，值得加以思考探究。 本研究藉由次級資料分析法與歷史文獻回顧法了解傷殘命令退休之立法意旨與制度設計理念，並藉由對政策主管機關人員、各機關承辦退撫業務人事人員以及適用傷殘命令退休制度之公務人員共計9名，從事深度訪談，並以Dunn W. N. (1994)及Poister T. H. (1978)所提政策評估6個一般標準，探討傷殘命令退休制度政策之實際執行情形是否有需要再次修正之必要。研究結果顯示傷殘命令退休之立法意旨為淘汰機關不適任人力，並提升政府施政效能；惟其實施迄今卻開始與實際執行結果產生落差，並據此提出研究建議如下，冀能對退休法制提供若干參考： 一、傷殘命令退休制度之成就要件部分，應適時因應修正公教人員保險殘廢給付標準表；並可設多元評估機制以資認定。 二、服務機關應秉持客觀、中立之立場，審慎評估其工作能力之有無。 三、因公傷殘命令退休之給與標準，可設置分類標準，而非一致擬制為相同年資。 四、因公傷殘命令退休之因果關係認定，可設置客觀專業之審查機制。 五、相關制度變革時，應舉辦座談會，加強人事人員素質，以維護權益。

針對各國普遍面臨人口結構逐漸老化、退休人口增加問題，世界銀行曾提出應建立至少三層保障的養老制度之呼籲；而我國迄今尚未建構出一套全面性之老年經濟生活安全保障制度，現有退休制度係依國民職業身分作為區分基礎。近幾年政府財政日趨惡化，加以國內經濟景氣不佳，失業率節節升高，公務人員由於工作與薪資相對較為穩定，其退休給付亦較完備；因此，遂引起各界對公務人員退休給付及其條件之合理及公平性的諸多討論。而公務人員退撫基金管理良窳，除攸關公務人員退休權益，亦牽涉政府最後給付責任，在政府可用資源相對減少下，如何防範政治力介入，暨因應現有制度與管理上的若干缺失，避免未來發生嚴重財務危機，均為本研究之重點。 本研究採取文獻探討、比較研究法，並輔以德菲爾法（Delphi Method）、問卷調查等方法，就公平及管理角度檢視現行公務人員退休制度所存在之缺失及具體改進之道。研究結果發現大多數受訪者認為我國對老年經濟生活安全之保障，與個人從事職業別有很大關聯；除軍公教人員以外之其他職域與非工資勞動者的老年經濟生活保障普遍不足，故在制度比較上常衍生出差別性待遇公平性問題；而退撫基金經營決策又常有政治力介入，特別是政經情勢不穩定時，除非逐漸民營化，政府僅擔任監督者角色，否則既使修法明定政府干預、挪用基金等限制條文，只要仍維持現行制度精神，由政府管理，便很難防範政治力介入該基金之實際運作。 基此，本研究提出下述幾點建議：1.政府應致力提升其他職域（身分）人員之老年經濟生活安全保障；2.公務人員請領月退休金年齡條件應予以延後，並適度降低現行給付水準；3.研議增訂彈性退休規定，並研酌展期年金及減額年金之可行性；4.宜朝向「確定給付制」兼採「確定提撥制」混合制方向發展，並逐步提高「確定提撥制」比例及採個人退休金帳戶制；5.修法明確規範退撫基金提撥率之調整機制，以健全基金財務結構；6.宜逐步增加退撫基金國外投資配置比例；7.應研酌未達法定最低收益由國庫補足差額之規定，以免否對資產長期配置造成扭曲；8.對於有價證券之投資應改採市價法評價，以反映基金資產真實價值；9.加強退撫基金財務資訊公開，以利全體投保人之監督；10.現行基金管理與監理組織，可研酌精簡合併為一獨立專業監理機關。11.修法使退撫基金經營管理趨向私有化與自由化。 / To confront the ever growing ageing trend and consequent retirement tide, the World Bank has contended three pillars of old age security over the past few years. The ROC government, however, has not yet launched a national pension scheme to ensure the elderly economic security so far although the Plan has been worked out for some time. The country is currently adopting a retirement system based on people’s occupation. Civil servants all along enjoy relatively sound and stabilized retirement benefits even under the aggravating financial difficulties and the economy recession. Together with the increasing unemployment rate, this phenomenon has augmented a great deal of discussion with regard to its fairness. In addition, since the government has played significant role in terms of Pension Fund Management, how to prevent political intervention and avoid mismanagement particularly during economic crisis certainly deserve close scrutiny. In light of the aforementioned, this study, based on literature review, survey, and Delphi, focuses on the fairness and management perspectives of the existing pension system for civil servants. It is found that most interviewees agree that civil servants comparatively enjoy better retirement benefits than the rest of the population since the current pension system has been designed on occupational basis. It is further observed by the interviewees that political intervention does exist in terms of Pension Fund Management especially during economic recession. It is thus harbored that perhaps only through “privatization”, such intervention can come to its stop. The study, among other things, suggests the followings: 1.A national pension scheme covering all people is required. 2.Postponing the age of receiving annuity from the current 50 to a later age and reasonably cutting off some civil servants’ pension benefits need to be addressed. 3.Adding flexibility to current civil servants’ retirement system is worth pondering. 4.Working out a system blending together “defined benefit” and “defined contribution” in which the proportion of “defined contribution” should be gradually enlarged. Thoughts with regard to “individual account” should also be studied. 5.Adjusting the insurance fee for pension fund is necessary in order to ensure financial viability. 6.Bigger proportion of pension funds’ overseas investment should be allowed. 7.Investment in securities should be evaluated with market price to reflect the actual value of fund assets. 8.Pension funds management report should be released to the general public for supervision. 9.Professional pension fund supervision mechanism has to be established. 10.Law provisions as to privatize and liberalize the pension fund need to be worked out.

本文乃企圖建立一種具有層次性的觀察方法，來瞭解公務人員老年經濟安全保障制度的歷史源由與價值。先由宏觀面著手，對西方老年經濟安全保障制度的之歷史源流及其基本理念解釋理論進行文獻探討；再將討論範圍限縮於世界銀行對於當今世界各國年金制度所提出問題與建議的理想模型；最後再將研究聚焦於我國公務人員老年經濟安全保障制度的歷史沿革、制度內涵、遭遇困境與改革策略的價值取捨，並經由對制度情境的模擬，將現制的問題與對備選方案的疑慮具體呈現出來。 在公務人員老年經濟安全保障制度財務制度分類當中，最為關鍵者即為給付類型之分類。在確定給付制下，公務人員與政府共同負擔財源責任，但財務風險全由政府承擔，其基本價值為對公務人員的承諾，其施行原則乃建立在政府之公共政策目的(包括人事與社會)；至於在確定提撥制下，提撥財源之責任可能由公務人員個人或可與政府共同負擔，但財務風險則全由公務人員個人承擔，是以，其基本價值在於財務資源的運作效率，其運作原則即建立在市場經濟原則上。 我國公務人員退休制度及公保制度所面臨的問題，就是在給付確定的情形下，現行公務人員退撫基金與公保提撥費率的精算假設獲利率分別為10%及6%，就目前之經濟情勢而言，應為高估，相對地，現行費率則為低估。為探求現行公務人員老年經濟安全保障制度對於公務人員之權利義務關係與保障程度之實況，爰採用情境模擬法，模擬其退休經濟保障及提撥累計之間的關係，及其制度安排之特點與正負功能。 由本文之研究結論分析，並參照世界銀行之年金三柱模式，在我國國民年金制度尚未實施之前，公保養老給付則負有給與退休公務人員最基本經濟所需之責任，應定位為第一柱基礎年金，其給付應維持確定給付制，以社會保險方式辦理尚屬適當。至於公務人員退休制度部分，則屬於第二柱職業年金，而應採確定提撥制。 就制度之改革方式，則建議下列兩種不同之改革途徑 一、修正途徑。在維持確定給付制之前題下，採取開源及結流兩方面之手段： (一)在開源方面，應提高基金或準備金投資效率外，並對現行法定提撥費率上限應予修正提高。 (二)在節流方面，則應配合檢討現行退休金給付之適當性，修正退休要件與給與方式，即從其月退休金給付額度標準及其年齡條件兩方面著手。 (三)一次退休金之所得替代率偏低，宜將之適用對象予以限縮，作為針對彈性提前退休人員之退休金給付方式。 (四)至於公保養老給付，則應予年金化，並至少應提供所得替代率10%之養老給付。 二、改制途徑。若將公務人員老年經濟安全保障制度必須改採行確定提撥制，本文仍建議不宜將投資風險全部轉移給公務人員個人承擔，而仍應搭配確定給付制以保障基本之退休生活水準。

確定給付制的退休金計畫，退休金成本提存的適當與否，關係到基金長期的財務健全及未來員工權益的保障，而我國公務人員退撫基金關係到廣大公務人員的權益，也影響到政府的財政支出，所以對公務人員退撫基金更有精算的必要，以確保提撥率之適當而不至於對政府財政增加額外負擔。 本論文從人口面的角度出發，以我國公務人員退休撫卹基金為實證分析之研究對象，探討人口面的假設對於公務人員退撫基金提撥率，未來各項給付支出的影響，包括從經驗資料中取樣，探討大小不同的樣本建立之服職表，於計算提撥率的差異，並利用混成模型建立新進成員假設，以開放團體模擬基金成員結構，在某些固定假設之下，模擬未來五十年的基金資產與現金流量情況。 根據本研究結果指出，利用不同取樣所建構的服職表，計算出之提撥率差異甚大，顯示小型的退休金計畫並不適宜以自身的經驗資料作為精算評價的基礎。另外，以常態分佈的混成模型建立公務人員新進假設，在人數設限成員群體的假設下作開放團體模擬的結果，顯示公務人員年齡結構在未來有逐漸老化的趨勢，在本文所採的假設下，基金資產將先增後減而於民國121年破產。在現行的公務人員退休撫卹制度下，要避免基金破產之情況發生，唯有提高提撥率、提高基金資產報酬率、或壓低薪資成長率。 第一章 緒論 第一節 研究動機與目的 第二節 研究範圍與限制 第三節 研究架構與內容 第二章 退休金精算考慮之因素 第一節 退休基金精算系統的概念及文獻回顧 第二節 精算假設 第三節 精算成本法 第三章 基金成員結構分析的理論基礎 第一節 服職表的編製 壹、 模型建立 貳、 修勻方法 參、 程式演算過程 第二節 混成參數模型的建構 第三節 基金成員新進參數模型的建立 第四節 基金成員新進、脫退隨機過程 第四章 公務人員退撫基金精算模擬 第一節 公務人員退撫基金給付規定 第二節 公務人員退撫基金精算評價系統簡介 第三節 公務人員退撫基金精算評價之實證 壹、 取樣差異對於提撥率的影響 貳、 開放團體模擬基金成員結構和財務預估 第五章 結論與建議 第一節 結論 第二節 對後續研究的建議 附錄A：估計粗脫率之程式 附錄B：修勻程式(Whittaker法) 附錄C：估計常態混成模型參數之程式 附錄D：公務人員新進成員年齡、職等分佈模擬之程式 附錄E-1：服職表1 附錄E-2：服職表2 附錄E-3：服職表3 附錄E-4：服職表4 附錄E-5：服職表5 附錄E-6：服職表6 附錄E-7：服職表7 / The adequacy of the plan contribution for a defined benefit pension scheme is directly related to its financial soundness and the plan member’s benefits. Due to uncertainty of the plan’s turnover, the service table plays an important role in actuarial valuation and cash flow projection. In this study, Taiwan public employees retirement system is studied to monitor the solvency issue due to bias in selecting the service tables. Tai-PERS is designed to provide retirement and ancillary benefits to 271,215 government employees. Its financial soundness is especially vital to the government annual balance. The plan contribution and projected cash flows of Tai-PERS are investigated using various sampling results. The distribution of the new entrants is assumed to follow the mixture model to describe the recruiting results. Then dynamic simulations under the open group assumption are performed to predict the future fund assets and cash flows. The results show significant differences in employing various service tables. Hence selecting proper demographic assumptions is particular important in pension valuation. Under our approach, the workforce of Tai-PERS is aging given the current plan population. Based on the given scenario, the projected plan assets increase and then decrease to be insolvent in 2032. Some interesting results are also discussed.