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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
41

台灣地區貨幣需求與股市成交量共積關係之研究 / The research of the cointegration relationship between money demand and stock trading volume - the case of Taiwan

李博遠, Li, Po-Yuan Unknown Date (has links)
傳統貨幣需求函數的估計,使用的影響因素包括物價、所得及利率。但是近年股市的蓬勃發展,對貨幣需求造成了一定程度的影響。 Friedman 就股市對貨幣需求的影響提出 4 大效果,分別是交易效果、資產組合調整效果、財富效果及替代效果。其中替代效果為負,其他的效果為正。然而並非只有股市會對貨幣需求造成影響,貨幣需求同樣會影響股市。本文採用 Johansen Procedure 估計法,首先建立一般的貨幣需求模型,使用的雙變數包括貨幣需求、物價、所得及利率,實證結果確定這些變數存在 2 條共積關係,一是貨幣需求共積方程式,一是物價共積方程式。然後我們將股市成交量放入,同樣確定這些變數間具有 2 條共積關係。 Johansen Procedure 有 5 種模型,分別適用於不同的情況,我們要事先由資料來判斷使用哪一個模型並不容易,因此本文採用了多項標準,包括共積係數符號及其大小、向量誤差修正模型誤差項常態性與序列相關檢定、重要統計值(RSS、AIC、SC)等,用來作為選擇最適模型的依據。經由實證結果我們發現,不論是否加入股市成交量,模型三都是最適當的模型,也就是資料有不為零的平均數與線性趨勢,但共積方程式只有截距項。 就貨幣需求共積方程式殘差對各變數的影響來看,M1A 與 M1B 的連續增加,都會使股市成交量擴大,而 M1B 的連續增加還會形成物價上漲的壓力。而就物價共積方程式殘差對各變數的影響來看,解釋上較不容易。這可能是因為台灣地區物價長期處於穩定,加上台灣股市受到心理及消息面的影響性很大,要用總體變數作一個完整的解釋並不十分容易。雖然如此,貨幣市場與股票市場間的互動仍然極具有研究價值。 / Traditionally, when estimating the money demand, we use price index, income, and interest rate as its influcing factors. But the stock market that is booming these years has made certain influence on money demand. Milton Friedman pointed out that there are 4 effects that stock market can influcnce money demand. They are trading effect, portfolio reconstruction effect, wealth effect, and subsitution effect. Among these effects, subsitution effect has negative influence on money demand and other 3 effects have positive influence on mondy demand. However, not only does the stock market has influence on mondy demand, money demand also has influence on stock market. In my thesis, I applied Johansen Procedure estimation method. First, I established a traditional model on money demand. The variables I used including money demand, price index, income, and interest rate. From the empirical outcome we are sure that there are 2 cointegration equations among these variables.One is the money demand cointegration equation and the other is the price cointegration equation. Next we add the stock trading volume to the model. We also make sure that there are 2 cointegration relationships among them. There are 5 models in Johansen Procedure estimation method, and they are applied in different situations. It is not easy to decide which model to apply in advance. So in the thesis, we used many criteria, including the value and the sign of the coefficients, the the serial correlation and the normality test of the residuals from the vector error correction model, and important statistics(RSS, AIC, SC) to decide which model to apply. According to the empirical outcome, whether stock trading volume is included, model 3, which is there are means and linear trend in data but the cointegration equation only has intercept is the proper model we selected. About the residuals from the money demand cointegration quation's influence on variables, we find that the continuous increase in M1A and M1B will make enlarge the stock trading volume. Besides, the coutinuous increase in M1B will cause the price to raise. And about the residuals from the price cointegration equation's influence on variables, it is a little bit difficult to interpret. Maybe it is because the price is very stable in Taiwan and the stock market in Taiwan is affected by psychology side and information side easily. So it is not easy to use the macro economic variables to interpret fully. Althought it is the case, the interaction between the money market and the stock market still worth researching.
42

國際公司治理之探討

何聖隆 Unknown Date (has links)
公司治理的研究,其主要的目的是了解董事會組成,董事會規模,外部董事, 董事及CEO薪酬誘因,CEO改組,外部大股東,外國股東,機構投資人,控制權和股權集中性,併購,法律制度及執行,法源…等變數對以ROA,ROE,會計盈餘,Tobin’s Q和股市報酬率所代表的公司績效之影響。與公司治理有關的重要指標包括股份控制權,現金流量權,董監事席次的控制權,控制權與股權的偏離,次大股東,金字塔結構,交叉持股,優先投票權,外部董事比例等。 本論文共計8章40節,引述國外文獻約500篇並由國際公司治理的實證結果來探討我國五家金控:開發金、台新金、復華金、富邦金、兆豐金的公司治理,最後提出九點結論和建議。
43

台灣股票市場的長期超額報酬與股票風險溢酬值 / The Equity Excess Return and Risk Premium of Taiwan Stock Market

簡瑞璞, Chien, Dennis Jui-Pu Unknown Date (has links)
已實現投資報酬率與無風險利率之差、被稱為超額報酬,而股票的預期報酬率超過無風險利率的部份則為股票風險溢酬,是許多資產評價模型的重要依據,例如資本資產定價模型。有不同的理論架構解釋說明風險溢酬值,例如;股票風險溢酬的迷思、短期損失的憎惡、生還存留因素和回歸與偏離平均值等等。 研究台灣股市的超額報酬與股票風險溢酬,有助投資大眾和企業理性面對股市的預期報酬和風險,對台股才有合理的期望報酬值。分析1967年迄2003年的台灣金融市場,計算過去37年長期的幾何平均年報酬率,以臺灣證券交易所發行量加權股價指數為台股市場報酬率,已實現台股實質年報酬率為6.71%。無風險報酬率使用第一銀行的一年期定期存款利率,實質台幣存款年利率為3.07%,消費者物價指數年增率則為4.80%。以年資料計算的台股實質超額報酬,算術和幾何值分別為12.48%和3.63%(年),計算月資料算術平均和幾何平均值分別為0.77%和0.25%(月)。過去37年長期的台股超額報酬現象未較歐美市場的情況更加明顯,也比一般市場的預期報酬率低。 因資料取得的限制、台股的理論超額報酬方面,1991年迄2003年的近十三年來,經固定股利成長模式和盈餘成長模式的兩種計算方式,台股的實質超額報酬分別為 0.6%和-4.3%,此時期台股的投資報酬率比起台幣存款並不突出、且是低超額報酬。同期的已實現的實質超額報酬值;算術平均1.69%和幾何平均-3.35%。評估目前台股風險溢酬,將十分接近過去37年長期歷史資料得到的超額報酬數值,算術年均值為12.48%(年)和0.77%(月),幾何平均分別為3.63%(年)和0.25%(月),低風險溢酬是當前台灣股票市場的一般現象。 / The difference between the observed historical investment return and the risk-free interest rate is the excess return. The equity risk premium, ERP is the expected rate of return on the aggregate stock market in excess of the rate of risk-free security. ERP is one of important factor of many asset-pricing models, including Capital Asset Pricing Model, CAPM. There were many theories and factors to explain the equity risk premium; equity premium puzzle, myopic loss aversion, survivorship bias, mean reversion & aversion and etc. Studying the value of Taiwan equity excess return and risk premium is fundamental for investors and institutions evaluating the expected market investment return and risk. Analyzing the data from year 1967 to 2003 for thirty-seven years long holding period, Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index as Taiwan stock market return, the realized real return was 6.71%. One-year bank time deposit rate as NT dollars risk-free asset rate and real interest rate was 3.07% and consumer price index, CPI annual growth rate was 4.80%. The historical real yearly excess return was 12.45% for arithmetic mean and 3.63% geometric mean; the historical real monthly excess return was 0.77% for arithmetic mean and 0.25% geometric mean. Taiwan realized equity excess returns were not higher than the returns in the developed countries and were also lower than the market's expectation. Due to the limits of available data, the theoretical equity excess returns that were calculated on two theoretical models; Constant Growth Dividend Discount Model (dividend yield model) and earnings yield model were 0.6% and -4.3% from year 1991 to year 2003. Comparing the same period of historical realized excess returns of 1.69% for arithmetic mean and -3.35% geometric mean, Taiwan stock market returns were not spectacular. The current equity risk premium of Taiwan stock market is low and should be near the level of the long historical realized equity excess return.

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