本研究旨在說明資本適足率對於銀行業資訊傳遞效果之影響，利用Allen and Gale (2000)模型討論在不完整市場結構下，銀行間因為持有銀行同業存款而形成相連的傳染途徑，進而影響整個系統，本研究擴展Allen and Gale (2000)的模型，加入資本適足率的考量，從而進一步探討透過資本適足要求能否有效提高銀行整體穩定性。 模型假設因為不同區域對於早、晚期消費需求不同，可藉由區域間的資源移轉，來達到最適分配情況。隨著資本適足率的納入，將改變最適分配解，同時分析緩衝(buffer)、擴散效果(spillover effect)及傳染(contagion)的變化。文中傳染定義為擴散效果扣除緩衝力道的淨結果，並說明若有超額流動性消費需求衝擊時，一家銀行的倒閉將如何傳染至整個銀行體系。 此研究發現，在資本適足規定下，若長期資產報酬率越大，會更有機會取得較大的緩衝能力，但將面對較大的擴散效果。關於傳染現象，則是發覺當銀行同業存款越小，在資本適足規定下的傳染機會越低；若長期資產的早期報酬率越大，同樣可降低發生傳染現象機率，即驗證資本適足率對於銀行穩定性的貢獻。 / The objective of this study is to testify the effect of capital requirement with regard to information transmission among banks. We develop a model based on Allen and Gale (2000) to discuss that under incomplete market structure, contagion channel is built because of interbank deposits market. We also expand Allen and Gale’s model by putting new parameter, capital requirement, into this model to analyze the impact of capital requirement with respect to stability in banking system. Due to different liquidity demands at each date in different regions, banks can exchange resources in the system to reach the first-best allocation. With capital requirement, the first-best allocation varies and so does buffer, spillover effect and contagion. In this article, contagion is defined as the net result of spillover effect minus buffer. Besides, we explain how the bankruptcy in one region evolves into the bankruptcy in the whole system under excess demand for liquidity. We find out that with capital requirement, if return of long-term asset at final date is higher, there will be more chances to have more buffers but larger spillover effect. As for contagion, it shows that with lower interbank deposits or higher return of long-term asset at early date, the possibility of contagion will be reduced. As a result, we can conclude that capital requirement really improves the stability in banking system.

民國93年3月22日，我國期貨市場發生一開盤後隨即跌停，而後無量下跌，引發我國期貨市場產生流動性風險及系統性危機之事件，此事件本研究將之簡稱為「322事件」。本研究首先將透過時間的推進來說明引發322事件之原因、發生經過，以及在此次事件中，為何會引發我國期貨市場之流動性風險及系統性危機之主要原因。本研究發現主要是因為在3月20日總統大選前，大多數的期貨交易人均預期選後的股市會有一波漲幅，故過份建立期貨多頭部位，但是經過了3月19日的槍擊總統一案以及3月20日的選舉爭議，都讓民眾對未來充滿不確定性，以致在3月22日一開盤便委賣遠大於委買，期貨成交量萎縮，期貨交易人損失慘重，保證金嚴重不足，而引發流動性風險及系統性危機。 而後，期貨主管機關為因應金融自由化及國際化，目前正研擬開放多種店頭市場金融商品供期貨商自營操作，但開放後期貨商勢必將承擔更高之市場風險，主管機關應該如何因應成了開放前最重要之課題。資本適足率係主管機關在監理期貨商經營是否健全時的第一道防線，故本研究便建構一新模型，用以估算欲開放之新種金融商品的短期投資折扣率，本研究並以台指選擇權為例，透過本模型估算其最適之短期投資折扣率，結果與目前期貨交易所所規範之40％相去不遠。 最後，本研究提出數點建議，以期未來再度發生類似於322事件時，能夠降低我國期貨市場面臨之流動性風險及系統性危機。同時，也建議期貨主管機關未來在設算金融商品之短期投資折扣率時，能夠依循一具合理原則性之模型估算，避免未來當開放多種金融商品後，產生彼此間原則相抵觸之問題。 / In 2004, Taiwan’s future market suffered both serious liquidity risk and systematic risk. At March 22nd in 2004, the Taiwan Future Index fall down and touched the maximum limit－7% suddenly. The volume of future market was extremely low. This paper called this event as “322 event.” This paper has two parts. First the paper will illustrate the 322 event. What caused the 322 event? And how the 322 event happened? This paper will seek these answers. We found that the main reasons to cause the liquidity risk and systematic risk are too many investors bought futures. This was because they believed after the 2004 President election, the Taiwan’s stock market would rise to celebrate. At March 19th, the President Chen Shui-Bian encountered a shot murder. At March 20th, some serious dispute took place and made our society was full of insecurity. Investors began concern the stock market would be uncertain. They didn’t buy any futures like before, but in contrast they started to sell it. The another aspect in this paper is to construct a model. In order to follow up the liberalization and globalization, the government authority plans to open more derivatives for the futures corporations to invest. But how do the government authorities monitor these futures corporations becomes an important lesson. This paper will also seek the answers through constructing a model using VaR model to estimate the short-term investment discount ratio. Then this paper uses Taiwan Stock Option as an example examining whether the model is useful. The short-term investment discount ratio of the stock option by model is 40.89%. This outcome is much closed to 40%, the regulated discount ratio. Finally, this paper provides several advices in order to diminish the liquidity risk and systematic risk when futures market will suffer what similar to 322 event in the future. And this paper gives some information to supervisors about how to construct a model to estimate the short-term investment discount ratio so that the ratio is ensured following a logical principle.

保險法第146條之4規範國外投資總額最高不得超過各該保險業資金45%，而2014年修正增列保險業依保險法規定投資於國內證券市場上市或上櫃買賣之外幣計價股權或債券憑證之投資金額，可不計入其國外投資限額。且因我國市場長期處於低利環境，壽險業即大量以台幣作為融資貨幣買入國外高利率環境下之標的貨幣進行利差交易，本研究擬以經濟資產模型進行資產與負債之模擬，衡量壽險公司的經濟資本與清償風險。 依據現行壽險公司資金運用決定投資之標的，並以Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (1985)模型模擬國內外短期利率，在無拋補利率平價說下建立匯率模型，以Heston (1993)隨機過程描述資產的變化，並考量壽險公司投資策略決定投資比率，再加入資產之相關性進行模擬；以與壽險公司投資連結之利率變動型年金為商品，加入各項風險因子進行負債價值模擬，諸如死亡率、解約率等因子；資產與負債皆在風險中立測度下以蒙地卡羅法進行模擬10,000次，探討公允價值下壽險公司之清償能力。 而現行清償能力指標為資本適足比率，但此標準下尚無法完整考慮各風險之相關性，本研究除考量資本適足比率中風險資本總額，亦加入經濟資本進行分析，可得以下結果： I.現行RBC風險資本總額介於VaR 99.5%與95%所計算之經濟資本間。 II.當匯率波動度與國外投資比例增加時，經濟資本亦將顯著增加。 III.隨國外債券投資比例增加，風險資本總額增加之幅度亦會加速成長。 IV.利率變動型年金商品宣告利率之擬定將顯著影響公司面臨之違約風險。 / The amendment of Article 146-4 of Insurance Act extended the overseas investment ceiling in 2014 that the International Bond was not included to be counted in overseas investment. Since we have been suffering from the low interest rate for a long time, life insurance industry often uses carry trade to enlarge their earnings. In this paper, the investment targets are chosen on the basis of the current life insurance industry. We simulate the short-term interest rate based on Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (1985) model, establish the exchange rate model by Uncovered Interest Rate Parity, and use Heston (1993) model to simulate stochastic process of assets. Then we consider the life insurance industry’s investment strategy to determine the investment ratio and also import the asset correlation into our models. The interest sensitive annuity policies we used to evaluate the liabilities are linked with life insurance companies’ investment. Some risk factors are also been considered, such as mortality, surrender rate and other factors. Through Monte Carlo simulations by 10,000 times, we analysis the life insurance companies’ solvency under risk neutral measurement by using Risk-Based Capital and Economic Capital. The results show that： I.Risk-Based Capital is between Economic Capital calculated by VaR 99.5% and 95%. II.When the volatility of exchange rate and overseas investment ratio increase, the Economic Capital will also increase significantly. III.With the increase in the proportion of foreign bond investment, the increase in the Risk-Based Capital will accelerate the growth. IV.The declaring interest rate of interest sensitive annuity policy will significantly affect the default risk faced by the life insurance company.

我國證券市場自設立共同責任制交割結算基金以來，大型證券商迭有反應，其凍結大量資金於防範市場違約，影響其資金運用之靈活度，筆者除了解上開情事之真實現況外，擬參酌國外之相關作法, 就共責制基金設置之適法性及基金運用之靈活度、流動性等構面,加以研議分析共同責任制交割結算基金之一定金額以保險方式取代現行以現金繳納方式之相關可行性意見，俾供 主管機關卓參。 本研究透過整理國內歷年來證券商違背交割之案例模式，探討證券管理潛藏疏漏之處，用以提昇市場管理之層次，面對市場不斷的挑戰與變化，另從我國「共同責任制交割結算基金特別管理委員會」發展之沿革，分析其效益及其部分金額以替代方案加以取代之可行性。再者，藉由探討基金之運作，演化出新種商品開發之可行性，希冀為國內產險業者製造商機之餘，亦嘗試為國內證券業者製造更多創造財富之邊際效果。 本研究可歸納出下列四項結論: 一、大多數證券商業者對於市場潛在之風險意識，仍存有普遍認知之程度，亦即市場潛在之風險，仍需藉由現行「交割結算基金」之規模及運作機制，來捍衛現行證券市場交易交割之安全。 二、「共責制基金」之現金孳息仍歸屬證券商所有，乃是大多數證券商對於「共責制基金」繳存方式之最佳偏好，亦即證券商最終仍可保有原始所繳存交割結算基金「本金」及固定收取「利息」之雙贏優勢。 三、現階段以「保險」方式取代「現金」繳存方式，雖然仍屬未臻成熟，惟若在適法性、即時性等因素都能加以克服之情況下，未來「共責制基金」以「保險」方式替代，被認為是可以被考慮接受之選項之一。 四、以「共責制基金」運作現況觀察，在未尋找到或發展出更加且更具效率運作模式之前提下，現行「共責制基金」相關管理規範，包括「基金之計提規定」、「基金繳存方式之規定」、「基金管理運用之方式」等法制面規定，尚稱完備。惟不可忽視的是，未來發生證券商違約之機率、違約金額之規模，尚屬未知。故可未雨綢繆的將是，落實各證券商各項風險控管機制，諸如確實執行證券商之內部控制制度，並輔以自有資本適足率制度的有效掌握，配合公司治理制度具體而微的運作，以及證券商風險管理實務守則等基礎規範的扎實遵守，雖無法奢言絕無證券商違約發生之可能，惟藉由上述各項防範措施，應可將對證券市場之負面衝擊程度降至最低。 本研究另提出二項建議: 一、適法性建議:現行「共責制基金」以「現金」繳存之型態，如欲以其他方式譬如:「全部」保險、或「部分現金、部分保險」等方式加以取代，其先決條件應為修訂相關法規，例如:各證券商依據「證券交易法」第108、132條、「證券商管理規則」第10條之規定須向臺灣證券交易所繳交交割結算基金，另依據臺灣證券交易「營業細則」第118條之規定，各證券商向臺灣證券交易所繳存交割結算基金，以繳存「現金」為限，故若「共責制基金」之一定金額以保險方式或其他方式取代時，首先即應修改「營業細則」第118條中有關「以繳存『現金』為限」之規定，俾以達到適法性之要求。 二、研究潛在風險值之建議:現行「共責制基金」之規模大小，亦即彌補市場因證券商違約所造成資金缺口之能力大小，究係應較現行規模增加或減少，因該項議題牽涉的因素甚廣，例如:全體及個別證券商經營風險之涉險程度不同而產生差異;再者，個別證券商可以接受委託買賣之額度，因個別證券商之可動用資金淨額倍數不盡相同，亦即一般淨值達二億元之證券商每日得接受委託買賣之額度最多僅達四十億元(公司本身淨值之20 倍)，然而大型證券商淨值達一百億元之證券商每日得接受委託買賣之額度最多幾可達二千億元(公司本身淨值之20 倍)，故估算全體市場真實交易潛在之風險值，應有進一步研究的空間，用以重新衡估「共責制基金」之最適規模，俾有效率的運作「共責制基金」，發揮最大效能之餘，又能兼顧「共責制基金」安全性、流動性及變現性等之訴求，亦為本研究最終之期許與建議。

本研究探討台灣於2011年依據IAS 39進行34號公報之第三次修訂實施，採用已發生損失模型後的兩項議題：（1）放款壞帳費用之提列與盈餘波動性以及資本適足率波動性之關聯性，（2）以歷史成本評價之期末金額及以公允價值評價之期末金額，究竟何者對於未來之帳款沖銷與不良債權較具有關聯性。 實證結果顯示，自2011年採用已發生損失模型後盈餘波動性無顯著之變化，且壞帳費用對於盈餘波動性無解釋能力；而自2011年後資本適足率波動性亦無顯著變化，但壞帳費用對於資本適足率波動性有顯著的影響，顯示銀行明顯透過壞帳費用之提列進行資本管理而非盈餘管理。在未來信用損失預測之部分，以歷史成本評價之期末放款金額對於未來之帳款沖銷及不良債權有顯著的負相關，而以公允價值評價之期末放款金額對於未來之帳款沖銷及不良債權卻無解釋能力，可能係因未來帳款沖銷與未來不良債權之發生與放款之帳齡有顯著的關聯性，而與未來可收取之現金流量無顯著之相關。 / This study aims to investigate how Incurred Loss Model affects the recognition of loan loss provisions and the valuation of loans due to the third revision of SFAS No. 34 which was revised based on IAS 39 in 2011. For the recognition of loan loss provisions, it focuses on the relationship with earnings volatilities and capital adequacy volatilities, and for the valuation of loans, it specializes on whether credit loss predicting is related to historical cost accounting or fair value accounting. The result shows that, since the implementation of Incurred Loss Model in 2011, both the adoption of Incurred Loss Model and the loan loss provisions have no significant impact on earnings volatilities. For capital adequacy volatilities, implementing Incurred Loss Model has no effect on capital adequacy volatilities neither. However, the loan loss provisions since 2011 significantly enhance the volatilities of capital adequacy. It reveals that banks use loan loss provisions to manage capitals instead of earnings. For credit loss predicting, loans evaluated with historical cost accounting have significant negative relations with future charge-offs and non-performing loans while loans evaluated under fair value accounting do not have any explanation power. It may suggests that future charge-offs and non-performing loans are related to the aging of loans, but not the future payoffs of loans.

近年來，由於金融產業的進步與科技的日新月異，越來越多樣的衍生性金融商品被廣泛使用，此類具有高獲利高槓桿的金融商品固然有避險的功能，另一方面也提高了銀行業的經營風險。巴塞爾委員會有鑑於此，大幅更動了早期巴塞爾資本協定的內容，稱為Basel II。 Basel II 的資本適足管制雖能避免金融機構發生倒閉之危機，但卻也影響金融機構之產出結構及品質，改變了金融機構之效率表現，因此，瞭解 Basel II 對金融機構效率表現之影響程度是本文目的之ㄧ，此外，有鑑於衍生性金融商品的高風險特性，本研究也將此變數加入，探討此兩項變數對本國銀行經營效率的影響為何。 本研究以資本適足率與衍生性商品使用量作為外生變數，以國內32家銀行為樣本，利用民國九十七年底之資料，採取三階段資料包絡分析法探討此兩項變數對銀行經營績效的影響。首先求算第一階段效率值，接下來考量資料截斷的特性，採用 Tobit 迴歸模型，計算差額變數並做調整，在第三階段排除其影響力，使所有決策單位在同一起跑點上再進行效率評估。 實證結果發現，資本適足率對於銀行效率的影響是有利的，而衍生性金融商品使用量則為不利因素，第一階段與第三階段的效率值在利用Wilcoxon 符號等級檢定之後的結果顯示第一階段與第三階段的效率值分布在0.5%的顯著水準下是不相同的，可進一步推論資本適足率與衍生性金融商品的使用量對銀行經營效率的影響十分顯著。