本文以2003至2009年的資料為研究區間，採用基本面分析指標、技術面分析指標及基因規畫法對倫敦黃金午後定盤價每季帄均塑造金價預測模型，同時歸納以基因規畫法塑造金價預測模型時，應使用何種投入指標與相關基因規畫法參數設定，較有機會獲得較佳預測力的金價預測模型。 最後發現對於黃金價格而言，各國股市大盤及黃金供需相關因素為使用基因規畫法塑造金價預測模型時較重要的指標種類，而於經濟狀況有劇烈變動時，加入技術分析指標將會改善模型的表現。而比較指標與基因規畫設定參數(如挑選函式、運算子集合、演化代數、染色體群大小)對模型預測力之影響，發現指標對模型預測力的影響遠大於基因規畫設定參數。 / The research uses the data between 2003 to 2009 to discuss the gold price forecastting model. Using fundamental analysis indices, technical analysis indices and Genetic Programming(GP) to modeling the gold price forecastting model. This paper also summarized that what kind of indexes and GP parameters should be set for getting better performance? Finally found that ,using the stock indices of important market and gold supply/demand factors to modeling usually get better performance. If there are drastic changes in economic conditions, using the technical analysis indices can improve the performance of model. The comparison of influence on model performance between indexes and GP parameters(ex. selecetio function, operator set, reproducting times, population size) show that, the indices have more influence to model performance than GP parameters.

躉繳遞延年金在美國已成最受歡迎的壽險商品，究其原因，實是該商品具 備庇護的茲息收益、特惠的稅賦措施、投資的安全性及多樣化的提款選擇 權等特色。在美國常見的年金商品選擇權，如：豁免條款、免費部份提款 、無部份提款之加給、市場價值調整、兩層利率年金、提前年金化、年金 化前之死亡給付等等，其用意是在保單累積期中給予保戶較自由資金運用 的權利，藉此吸引顧客並與銀行之儲蓄商品來競爭。在準備金提存方面， 其現金價值累積是與市場利率有密切關係，性質迴異於以往的壽險型年金 商品，一般壽險準備金方法無法運用於該類商品，故美國ＮＡＩＣ於１９ ７６年提出監理官制年金準備金評價方法（ＣＡＲＶＭ），以作為該類商 品責任準備金之最低提存標準。未來國內年金發展方向應會朝向美國模式 ，以及早規劃適當的年金準備金方法。 Discussing the liability reserveof annuity from American Single Premium deferred Annuity(SPDA)

本文改良了Shafiee-Topal(2010)所提出之跳躍模型之波動率，並歸納成三種模型:改良跳躍模型、改良平滑跳躍模型以及最佳化跳躍模型，並運用時間序列模型探討樣本期間內黃金價格。第一部份比較三種跳躍模型與Shafiee-Topal模型在訓練集及測試集的預測結果，並預測2012年至2018年之黃金價格走勢。第二部份探討黃金價格、原油價格以及美元加權指數之間的互動關係，建立多變數模型以預測黃金價格之長期趨勢。 首先，本文檢驗黃金價格、原油價格及美元加權指數樣本之恆定性，經由ADF 單根檢定法發現序列具有單根，進而使用TSP(Trend Stationary Process)估計模型參數。其次，黃金價格、原油價格及美元加權指數經共整合檢定發現，各模型變數間均具有共整合關係，即變數間具有長期均衡關係。黃金價格與原油價格呈正向反應，而黃金價格和原油價格與美元加權指數呈負向反應，除了受自身的預測解釋能力外，亦可以做為觀察其他變數的未來走勢方向及影響大小預估。最後，探討黃金價格受波動率的影響情形，本文改良Shafiee-Topal模型之波動率，並比較四種模型對黃金價格趨勢預測之結果，發現改良平滑跳躍模型在實際黃金價格波動率大時，其趨勢預測結果會優於Shafiee-Topal模型。 / This research advanced the volatility component (λ) of the jump and dip model (Shafiee and Topal,2010) on gold prices from 1968 to 2012 and estimated the gold price for the next 6 years. Based on the trend stationary process, we defined the three components and derived three new models: Adjusted Jump and Dip Model, Adjusted Smooth Jump and Dip Model and Optimized Jump and Dip Model. First part of the thesis compared the performance in prediction of the training data and the testing data for three different models and the jump and dip model. Second part of the thesis investigated the relationship among the gold price, crude oil price, and trade weighted U.S. dollar index of the concepts The result illustrated the long term trend of gold price described by a multivariate predictive model. We found evidence that different levels of volatility affect the prediction of gold price, and the adjusted jump and dip Model performs best when the true volatility is relatively high.

本研究旨在探討家族企業接班與接班人類型對於公司現金來源及現金價值的影響。本研究使用於1992年至2015年被列於S&P 1500指數的公司為樣本進行實證研究。實證結果顯示家族企業接班後將減少使用發行股票為公司現金的來源。此外，當接班人為家族成員時，企業接班後的邊際現金價值會較低；然而於財務限制的家族企業，企業接班將使當年度的邊際現金價值提高。本研究結果顯示資本市場對於家族企業接班投以較高的關注，尤其當接班人為家族成員時程度更為顯著。 / This study examines the effect of succession on the cash saving behavior and the value of cash holdings for family firms. By examining the Standard and Poor 1500 indexed firms from 1992 to 2015, we find that cash savings from equity issuance decrease around successions, and the decreasing effect lasts longer with family related successors. In addition, the marginal value of cash holdings will be lower after succession if the successor is associated with the family. But if family firms are financial constrained, the marginal value of cash holdings will be higher with family firms with succession at the year of succession but not after. These findings indicate that the capital markets are concerned with the succession implication for family firms more than non-family firms, especially when the successors are family members.

本研究主係探討以投資者持有本國股票作為基礎投資組合，利用台灣五十成份股投資組合及金融期貨指數之月報酬率資料形成效率前緣，然後將本研究所選取之黃金產業GOX指數或以黃金現貨價格兩種黃金商品投資組合分別加入基礎投資組合中，觀察每個投資組合標的加入前後之投資機會集合之變化，是否基礎投資組合之效率前緣進一步向左偏移，並比較其優劣。此外進一步探討在兩種黃金投資組合加入基礎投資組合，分別在股市多頭及空頭市場時會不會產生相同的效果；並且藉由中央大學台灣經濟發展研究中心所調查訂定的消費者信心指數，以中位數區分為信心指數高或信心指數低兩組情境，並將兩種黃金商品投資組合在不同的情境依序分別加入基礎投資組合中，其基礎投資組合之效率前緣是否皆仍進一步向左偏移。實證結果發現，黃金現貨帶給基礎資產投資機會集合的貢獻，明顯優於黃金產業GOX指數，當檢定資產為黃金產業GOX指數時，「切點投資組合」差異W_1統計值上皆不具統計顯著性，整體而言當黃金產業GOX指數在加入投資組合之後，我們認為大部份的效果是來自分散原有的投資組合風險；然而黃金現貨在改善投資機會集合的貢獻上，來自「最小變異數投資組合」及「切點投資組合」的改善皆有顯著的效果。

2015年下半年開始，許多有關市場黑天鵝的新聞佈滿各大媒體版面，其中不乏「某恐慌指標創歷史新高」此類令投資人恐懼的標題。然事實上卻未見到各國股價指數有大幅修正的現象，以MSCI全球指數而言，下半年總計僅修正6.49%。為了探討這些不同於傳統VIX指數的恐慌指標是否會顯著影響股價指數的表現。本論文透過VAR、VECM以及ARDL模型，探討金價油價比、CBOE偏態指數、瑞士信貸CSFB指數以及泰德價差這四種恐慌指標對於當前全球前四大經濟體股價指數的關聯性。 美國是全世界經濟的領頭羊，其經濟情勢與全球每一個國家的榮景息息相關，美國股價指數的表現亦是相當受到全球投資人所關注的。故本論文首先透過探討這四種恐慌指標對於S&P 500指數的影響，再利用S&P 500指數領先各國股價指數的特性進一步得出結論。實證結果發現，S&P 500指數對於其他三個股價指數確實具有短期同向的影響，長期而言亦具有穩定的線性關係。另外，金價油價比無論在短期及長期下皆無法有效代理市場的恐慌程度而影響S&P 500指數；CBOE偏態指數與瑞士信貸CSFB指數在長期下得以領先S&P 500指數的變化，當該二指數走高，代表 S&P 500指數在近期的波段高點可能即將來臨，亦即隱含該二指數對於S&P 500指數具有領先同向變化的現象；泰德價差為市場用以衡量信用風險的指標之一，當泰德價差擴大，隱含市場風險貼水增加，不利股市發展，其與S&P 500指數則具有長期穩定的負向關係。本論文最後也針對這四種恐慌指標的預測能力進行探討，發現瑞士信貸CSFB指數在預測S&P 500指數的能力上，相對其他三種恐慌指標優異。 / There were so many hearsays about the potential black swan events dominating the news in the second half of 2015. Headlines were about some fear indicators hit historic high but, in realistic, world stock market did not be significantly influenced under this panic atmosphere. Take MSCI World Index for instance, the index dropped only 6.49% in the second half of 2015, which was relatively unreasonable under this condition. In order to find out whether or not the fluctuations of these fear indicators can significantly affect stock indexes, VAR, VAEM and ARDL model to discuss the relationships between 4 fear indicators and 4 stock indexes─gold to oil ratio, CBOE Skew Index, Credit Suisse Fear Barometer Index, TED spread, S&P 500 Index, MSCI Europe Index, SSE A Share Index and Nikkei 225 Index are adopted in this study. Global investors pay close attention to the performance of the U.S. Stock indexes as U.S. economy condition can affect the economies of the rest of the world. Consequently, we investigated the effects of 4 fear indicators to the S&P 500 Index then employed relationships between S&P 500 Index and other 3 stock indexes to do further discussion. The results show S&P 500 positively affects the performances of other 3 stock indexes in short term and has a steady relationship with each of them respectively in the long term. The changes of gold to oil ratio could not significantly influence the performance of S&P 500 Index no matter in the short term or the long term. CBOE Skew Index and CSFB Index have significant positive influences on S&P 500 and are leading indicators to S&P 500 Index. Lastly, TED spread has a steady negative relationship with S&P 500 in long term, and CSFB Index has the highest predictive power among the 4 fear indicators.

本文有兩個研究目標，第一個是比較政大用電量與氣溫之間的相關性，第二則是分析影響黃金價格波動的因素。本文使用到的研究方法有希爾柏特黃轉換（HHT）與一些統計值。 　　本研究使用的分析數據如下：政大逐時用電量、台北逐時氣溫以及倫敦金屬交易所（London Metal Exchange）的月平均黃金價格。透過經驗模態分解法（EMD），我們可以將分析數據拆解成數個互相獨立的分量，再藉由統計值選出較重要的分量並分析其意義。逐時用電量的重要分量為日分量、週分量與趨勢；逐時氣溫的重要分量為日分量與趨勢；月平均黃金價格的重要分量則是低頻分量與趨勢。 藉由這些重要分量，我們可以更加了解原始數據震盪的特性，並且選出合理的平均週期將所有的分量分組，做更進一步的分析。逐時用電量與逐時氣溫分成高頻、中頻、低頻與趨勢四組，其中低頻與趨勢相加的組合具有最高的相關性。月平均黃金價格則是分為高頻、低頻與趨勢三組，其中高頻表現出供需以及突發事件等短週期因素，低頻與歷史上對經濟有重大影響的事件相對應，趨勢則是反應出通貨膨脹的現象。 / There are two main separated researched purposes in this thesis. First one is comparing the correlation between electricity consumption and temperature in NCCU. Another one is analyzing the properties of gold price volatility. The methods used in the study are Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT) and some statistical measures. 　　The following original data: hourly electricity consumption in NCCU, hourly temperature in Taipei, and the LME monthly gold prices are decomposed into several components by empirical mode decomposition (EMD). We can ascertain the significant components and analyze their meanings or properties by statistical measures. The significant components of each data are shown as follows: daily component, weekly component and residue for hourly electricity consumption; daily component and residue for hourly temperature; low frequency components and residue for the LME monthly gold prices. 　　We can understand more properties about these data according to the significant components, and dividing the components into several terms based on reasonable mean period. The components of hourly electricity consumption and hourly temperature are divided into high, mid, low frequency terms and trends, and the composition of low frequency terms and trends have the highest correlation between them. The components of LME monthly gold prices are divided into high, low frequency term and trend. High frequency term reveals the supply-demand and abrupt events. The low frequency term represents the significant events affecting economy seriously, and trend shows the inflation in the long run.

財產稅素來為政府重要財政收入，有關財產稅稅基計算為政府與民眾關心之重要議題。國際上財產稅稅基評估方式，依收益來源之不同，可分為由「租金收入」所得之年租金價值，或由「交易」所得之市場價值。我國財產稅稅基為土地申報地價與房屋評定現值，屬於以成本法評估之市場價值。 本研究經由稅基理論之文獻回顧，並針對臺北市觀光旅館與辦公大樓進行模擬分析與迴歸分析，研究結果發現，國際上財產稅稅基評估方式為市場價值或租金價值，應用於臺灣其實屬於「成本價值」與「收益價值」之爭。本研究認為，基於商業不動產經營獲利特性、交易型態與行政便利，並且符合量能課稅原則，商業不動產宜採用收益面之租金價值作為財產稅稅基；然而，現行制度僅反映不動產成本面，未反映不動產收益面。另外，若以租金價值作為稅基，需扣除無形資產之價值。 最後，若財產稅稅制轉變為以租金價值作為稅基，就旅館而言，於政策上可以鼓勵廠商興建大規模觀光旅館，並對經營初期業者有利，對於旅館產業發展有助益。就辦公大樓而言，於政策上可以鼓勵廠商興建大規模辦公大樓，可以促進開發者整合較大面積土地進行開發。 / Property tax is one of the important tax revenues of the government. People care about how to calculate property tax base. There are two values-based approaches that depends on different revenue sources one is “Annual Rental Value” which is based on rents, the other is “Market Value” which is based on sales. The Taiwanese property tax is based on market value and on cost approach. The study explores the tax base theories and use differential tax incidence and regression model to test the property tax bases of hotels and offices. According to the literature, there are two main ways to assess the property tax bases: Market Value Basis and Annual Rental Value Basis. However, it turns out to be the difference of Cost Value and Income Value in Taiwan. Due to the revenue-generating feature and transaction style of commercial properties, administrative convenience and the ability-to-pay principle, the study suggests that we should use annual rental value as the property tax base of commercial properties. Nevertheless, the Taiwanese property tax base only reflects the cost of properties, not the revenue-generating capacities of properties. On the other hand, the rent value includes the intangible assets such as famous brand names, the additional value which is not from the property should be excluded from the tax base. Nevertheless, if the rental value is substituted for the cost value as a tax base, there will be some possible situations as a reference for policy makers. For hotels, it will encourage firms to construct big scale hotels, and it will be beneficial for the initial operation of hotels. For offices, it will encourage firms to construct big scale offices and it will promote the developers to create more land area as well. Keywords: commercial property, property tax, house tax, cost value, rental value

在現今關於公司現金決策的文獻中，多數文獻以預防性動機 (precautionary motive) 或是代理問題動機 (agency motive) 來解釋公司為何要存錢，但至今對於公司存錢的動機仍未有一致的定論。在本篇文章中，我們用籌資不易公司 (financially constrained firm) 在2000年網路泡沫以及2008年金融海嘯的表現來證明現金的預防性價值。我們發現事先有存錢的公司在上述事件期間仍能維持其原有的投資支出，反之事先沒存錢的公司在上述期間會擁有較低的股票報酬以及較高的違約風險。此外，本研究也發現曾在2000年網路泡沫期間遭遇資金問題的公司比較容易在2000年後開始存錢，這些預先存錢的公司在2008年金融海嘯來臨時也有相對較小的違約風險，顯示了公司在現金管理方面的學習行為及其好處。綜上所述，本文以外生事件突顯了現金的預防性價值，證明公司的未雨綢繆確實有用。 / This article examines the role of pre-saved cash in helping financially constrained firms during the 2000 dot-com crash and the 2008 financial crisis, both of which were exogenous shocks to industrial firms. The results show that constrained firms tended to increase capital investments during these severe economic downturns if they had pre-saved more cash. Constrained firms instead exhibited lower excess returns and incurred higher likelihoods of financial distress during the severe downturns if they had saved less cash prior to the events. Firms that experienced the 2000 dot-com crash and saved cash thereafter were less likely to default during the 2008 financial crisis, indicating the existence and benefit of learning effects. This study supports a precautionary motive for cash savings, showing that pre-saved cash helps financially constrained firms fund investment and reduces the likelihood of financial distress during severe market downturns. It demonstrates that saving for a rainy day really is valuable.

本論文的研究目的是在於分析在現階段的大環境下，即在利率低迷且經濟不景氣中，發行銀行如何針對投資者的需求，設計出可以吸引投資者前來投資的結構性新金融商品並從中獲取合理利潤。 本文以避險及保本兩大方向為出發點，選取了三個個案分析，分別是荷蘭銀行推出的『荷銀110%保證回報金價連動債券』、中國信託商業銀行推出的『中國信託商業銀行三個月期美元理財專案』、以及中國信託商業銀行推出的『中國信託商業銀行六個月期歐元理財專案』。 個案分析方式著重於在不同的利率下，計算出發行銀行發行商品之利潤、投資者之投資收益率、以及商品之避險部位分析，並針對商品之設計提出建議。