由聯合國環境署和世界氣象組織在1988年成立之「跨政府氣候變遷小組」（Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change，IPCC）公佈之「2007氣候變遷報告」中指出，近五十年來觀察到之暖化現象極可能係由人類活動所導致。報告中引用最新科學研究資料指出，氣候變暖之趨勢正在加快，明顯可觀察到之現象包括：極端氣溫天氣之增多、全球海平面上升、一些地區乾旱加重、冰川融化、冰蓋萎縮等等。這種快速氣候變遷所帶來的衝擊，對於地球生態而言，是一種嚴峻的考驗。 台灣地處亞熱帶，且因所在地理位置，深受海洋與大氣交互作用之影響，再加上地形狹窄、河道短促等自然環境因素影響，使台灣成為颱風頻繁的地方；除了颱風本身外，颱風之累積雨量與單位時間內之降雨量又屢創新高，甚至出現了罕見之冬颱；其所附帶的豪雨，造成重大損失。 我國文獻對於颱風洪水險是否作為政策性保險之討論較少，故本論文希望能就颱風洪水險是否適合做為政策性保險加以探討。首先，從氣候風險管理之角度著手，收集現行國內外氣候變遷現況之資料，提出氣候巨災風險管理之方法。再介紹外國與我國現行之颱風洪水保險制度，並論述颱風洪水保險制度之設計原則與方式。接下來，介紹政策性保險，並針對颱風洪水保險可否為政策性保險為違憲審查。最後，針對颱風洪水險作為政策性保險之可行性進行研討，提出可行之方案，並與我國現行已存在之政策性保險相比較，討論我國現行颱風洪水保險之優缺點，再為制度之抉擇。之後，再討論相關問題，以作為我國以後是否發展強制或半強制颱風洪水險之參考。

災難管理已成為二十世紀台灣政府首長的首要課題。近年來台灣每年都有或大或小的災害事件發生，包括九二一地震、八掌溪事件、東方科學園區大火、桃芝颱風、納莉颱風等，造成了極大的生命與經濟損失，使得災難管理成為政府首長不得不正視的課題。 民國九十年九月十六日至十七日，納莉颱風橫掃台灣北部，在竹子湖站的連續最大24小時小時雨量高達862公厘，台北市市民27人遇難，3人失蹤，16人重傷，收容災民高達2,053人﹔高運量捷運系統被洪水灌入而完全停駛，到當年十月一日才逐步恢復營運，市政府各單位編列的復原經費高達97億元。這次的風災，使得首善之都台北陷入一片汪洋之中，災後數日，都市機能仍運作困難，民眾陷入前所未有的痛苦之中，媒體將此次的災變稱作為馬英九執政以來最大的挑戰，將直接影響市民支持率，甚至危及連任之路。然而，馬英九及市府團隊在這次的事件中整體形象並未受到影響，仍有高達60.5%的民眾滿意度，本文相信這樣的民調結果立基於台北市政府的災變公共關係管理的運作上。 以往有關危機管理相關研究大多以Nunamaker等人（1989）的危機管理動態模式為基礎，探討我國防災系統的建制與缺失，對於政府公共關係管理的範疇並沒有提及，而大眾傳播科系對於危機公關的相關研究則是著重於媒體策略與媒體效果的分析上。據此，本文試圖將危機管理與危機公關加以結合，透過納莉風災個案分析、深度訪談與內容分析的方式，進行政府災變公共關係研究；台北市政府主要的溝通對象為市民、媒體、中央政府及市議會，研究市民關係、媒體關係、中央與地方關係及府會關係，因而共同關係成為本文研究的重點，主要的研究問題為：（1）學術界危機公關理論的發展情形為何？理論模式中有何不足之處？（2）應用Nunamaker等人（1989）的危機管理動態模式，台北市實務上的做法為何？（3）台北市政府災前防災溝通主要以哪些方式進行？（4）台北市政府災前如何與溝通對象進行公共關係？關係結果為何？（5）在納莉風災時期，台北市政府採取何種公共關係策略？（6）前述台北市政府災前與主要溝通對象的關係結果，對於納莉風災時雙方的互動情形有何影響？ 經歷了長時間的研究，本文有幾項研究發現，期望能為我國政府組織未來應災提供建議，包括：（1）市府與民眾間災前之防災溝通仍待加強、（2）災前公共關係良好的政府組織，在災時會遭遇較少的形象損失、（3）納莉風災時期媒體公關實屬成功、（4）市府與中央長期溝通失靈成為救災阻力、（5）市府採取謙遜有禮的態度處理府會關係使得府會關係和諧、（6）災害是市府改善以往敵對關係的契機、（7）災後重建推動委員會具有公共關係作用、（8）唯有救災體制與救災政策完備，公共關係管理才具有意義、（9）危機管理動態模式需加入公共關係管理方屬完備。

本研究探討國內電視新聞攝影記者採訪報導颱風新聞的採訪應變與專業意理。研究採取質化的深度訪談法，訪談12名任職於台北有線、無線電視新聞頻道的男性攝影記者。研究結果發現，攝影記者在自然環境破壞與充斥新聞編輯室時效、災難影像競爭壓力的報導現場裡，克服環境、設備資源侷限發展應變之道，而能因地制宜、就地取材、或朝向預防準備方向。當自然環境衍伸出採訪安全風險時，攝影記者會權衡多重面向因素，如：編輯室內控壓力、自然環境、個人因素、與文字記者配合程度而決定是否涉險，過往受傷經歷也讓攝影記者累積採訪智識，判斷環境風險。但是，攝影記者為了應付編輯室壓力、採訪安全問題，常產生目的導向的「偏差介入式」報導手段。 　　攝影記者採訪報導颱風創傷新聞情境，面對死者遺體與受創傷者的情緒壓力會在現場或報導完後有所展現，他們會藉由採訪智識、前輩經驗傳承或自我創建降低心理創傷的採訪方式、調適辦法。且攝影記者對颱風創傷情景的記憶，會連帶觸動他們工作生涯裡初次與印象最深刻的創傷新聞情景，進行跨事件聯想。過往創傷新聞經驗會脈絡性地影響攝影記者採訪報導方式，有助於專業意理養成、但也可能助長偏差的報導手段。 　　專業意理於攝影記者採訪報導颱風新聞的實踐，傾向以新聞本質的記錄真實、快速傳遞訊息而自然而然地發揮媒介助人、批評譴責、動員、關懷、設定議題、解決問題等正向功能。但是，這些正向的媒介功能卻會被攝影記者作為合理化偏差報導手段的藉口，記者僅重視報導可能帶來的正向「結果」，忽視採訪報導方式的「程序正義」。在在反映攝影記者欠缺採訪報導創傷情境的認識、應變颱風報導環境限制的安全策略，與抵抗編輯室內控壓力的適切辦法。 / This study investigates television photojournalists’ adaptation strategies and professional ideology when covering typhoon news in Taiwan. 12 male photojournalists who work in cable and network television stations in Taipei are in-depth interviewed. The findings indicate that photojournalists seek resources from the news venue and adapt them to fit in the local circumstances, or prepare in advanced to deal with the possible restrictions from natural environment due to typhoon disasters. Simultaneously, photojournalists also weigh multiple factors to take risks for news or not, like competitive pressures, newsroom routines, natural environment, individual causes and the degree of cooperation with their counterpart. They evaluate risks of natural environment based upon their hands-on wisdom that is collected from past physical hurt experiences. However, photojournalists under the pressure of competition sometimes use inappropriate ways to shoot news footages and get involved in news events to make sensational typhoon news. 　　Interviewed photojournalists have emotional stresses when facing corpses and traumatized people at the news venue, even after work. Covering wisdom, senior photojournalists’ experiences and suggestions are good way to mitigate photojournalists’ emotional stresses and trauma. The interviewees’ answers to typhoon reporting are often associated with their first trauma news experiences and most impressive event. Those significant experiences in their career will influence photojournalists’ reporting methods towards nurturing beneficial professional ideology or increasing inappropriate covering measures. 　　Photojournalists tend to develop positive media functions, like helping, criticism, mobilization, care, agenda-setting and solutions-developing to accomplish their professional ideology by reporting truth and conveying disaster messages as soon as possible. Nevertheless, photojournalists only focus on “consequentialism” of effective media functions, but discard “procedural justice” of moral reasoning in typhoon reporting. The so-called professional ideology is only optimistic bias among photojournalists.

臺灣被國際視為「自然災害很多，極度高風險的地區」，其中的天然災害，包括颱風。由於臺灣位於颱風路徑要衝，每年飽受颱風的威脅，根據氣象局的統計，從西元1911年至2015年總計有360個颱風侵襲臺灣，平均每年有3到4個，颱風引進的西南氣流或是伴隨而來的強降雨，更經常造成許多脆危地區嚴重災損。 現今科技的進步，預報技術日新月異，讓民眾可提早得知颱風警報，尤其電視新聞中有氣象報告之後，氣象主播提供天氣、颱風動態和影響的解說，更成了民眾日常生活中獲得天氣資訊的主要管道，根據國外文獻調查，觀眾對電視新聞最感興趣就是收看氣象。 螢光幕前負責氣象報告的氣象主播可以說是氣象科學、電視傳播媒體和社會大眾之間的重要橋樑，面對全球極端氣候，災變性氣候頻率增加，有許多天氣的最新動態、科學方面的知識和氣象素養更需要詳盡的解說，氣象主播的重要職責就是做好氣象傳播，提供民眾預警訊息。 西元1978年開始，臺灣出現專業的氣象主播，電視產業從早年的三臺壟斷到現今有線電視蓬勃發展，競爭白熱化的電視新聞生態，氣象報告時間也成了新聞戰場，各臺氣象主播更是搶收視率的重，要利器。氣象新聞相互較勁，每一家電視臺氣象主播使出渾身解數並強調自己的解說最權威，最精準，但民眾怎麼看？氣象主播所播報的訊息對於民眾做好防颱準備真的有幫助嗎？為了收視率，播報颱風動態，氣象主播創造新用語或是誇大形容，強化預警效果，民眾認同度又是如何？面對災變性天氣，氣象主播在風險溝通過程中，怎麼看待自己的定位？ 當網路科技興起之後，電腦或行動裝置日益改變民眾接受訊息的習慣，收看氣象主播播報天氣資訊的觀眾，收視行為是否也會有所轉變？本文將以蘇迪勒颱風災害防救的個案分析角度，一來了解氣象主播在災害防救上發揮怎麼樣的關鍵影響力，同時也希望在氣象主播的主題上做先探性的研究。 / Taiwan has been regarded by international as a high-risk area where suffers a lot of natural disasters such as typhoons. According to the Bureau of Meteorology statistics, from 1911 to 2015, a total amount of 360 typhoons attacked Taiwan, with an average of three to four per year. The southwest air flow introduced by typhoons as well as accompanied heavy rains have contributed serious damage to many areas. Thanks to today’s technology and the rapid advance of forecasting technology, people can access the typhoon information in advance, especially from the TV weather forecast. The weather anchor provides information on weather, typhoon dynamics, and impact with the audience. Watching weather report has become part of many people’s daily routine. According to foreign literature survey, the audience is most interested in weather report when they watch TV news. The weather anchor can be viewed as a person who builds the bridge between meteorological science, broadcast media and the public. Due to extreme weather and climate change and the increased rates of catastrophic natural disasters, the audience gets an urge to learn more about the weather and knowledge related to meteorology. Thus, the major duty of a weather anchor is to provide accurate weather information to help prepare the audience for natural disasters. Since 1978, we have had professional weather anchor in the local broadcast industry. Taiwan’s TV industry has gone from the three television stations (TTV, CTV, and CTS), representing the central government’s monopoly on television broadcasting, to booming cable TV today. TV Weather forecasting has become a battlefield in today’s broadcast industry— every weather anchor is competing for the ratings. Every weather anchor claims that they deliver the most authoritative and accurate weather information. However, what does the audience think of it? Is the information provided by the weather anchor helpful for them when it comes to disaster prevention? For the ratings, most weather anchors create fancy words or rather prone to exaggeration, how does the public respond to it? Facing the extreme weather and climate change, how does a weather anchor identify themselves in the process of weather communication? Today the internet has changed the way people access information. Does it also affect people’s behavior when it comes to watching weather news on TV? In this paper, we aim to focus on what the role a weather anchor plays in disaster prevention using a case study approach. Also, we hope our explorations and insights will contribute to your understanding of the role of a weather anchor.

全球極端氣候、天災頻仍，氣象訊息與民眾生活息息相關，根據中央氣象局104年調查，民眾獲得氣象資訊的管道仍以「電視」占最多數，氣象傳播是科學傳播的一環，本研究以一個颱風從生到死為範圍，對四位電視氣象主播晚間新聞時段氣象預報，分訊息呈現、媒體設計、播報展演等三個層面進行內容分析，並輔之以四位主播的深度訪談，探討國內電視氣象主播在颱風警報發佈前、警報發佈期間與警報解除後，如何對閱聽大眾進行傳播。 近年來由於媒體競爭激烈，使得電視氣象預報從颱風還在一兩千公里外就開始眾聲喧嘩。本研究發現，氣象主播的科學背景會影響其颱風播報敘事結構，對於尚處遙遠的颱風，任立渝、林嘉愷用語比較保守，戴立綱語多暗示，王淑麗暗示性最強、使用篇幅也最多。在警報發佈期間，任立渝偏重颱風分析，林嘉愷擅長運用圖表解析即時風雨狀況，戴立綱敘事強調生活化提醒閱聽人防颱防淹水，王淑麗用語相對生動活潑、善用周遭事物比擬陳述颱風。在颱風警報解除後，任立渝、林嘉愷和戴立綱立即恢復平日氣象播報格式，惟王淑麗仍停留颱風訊息的陳述。在媒體設計上，林嘉愷使用的虛擬棚、鏡面和圖表，在視覺化的設計和呈現都較其他三人為佳。在播報展演上，四位主播各有風格，任立渝誠懇嚴肅、林嘉愷草根親和、戴立綱急切亢奮、王淑麗則走輕鬆活潑路線。手勢和觸控筆是氣象主播很重要的展演，手勢是一種肢體表演，觸控筆則是展現專業分析的工具，視覺性的動態展演是聚焦觀眾注意力的方式。 綜觀分析結果，本研究也提出颱風氣象播報準則，氣象主播的長期專業形象是其一，訊息呈現的敘事結構必須隨著颱風逼近而機動調整，當颱風地處遙遠時，對於颱風的敘事以「教育」觀眾大氣環境變化為主；當颱風逐漸靠近時，颱風動態路徑的解析說明展演能力，是氣象播報的決勝關鍵；當颱風警報發佈後，對台灣陸地影響的預估解釋能力則是觀眾收視關切的重點。至於搭配的氣象鏡面宜以視覺化為原則，追求圖表色調文字簡單明瞭且可視性高，並且讓觀眾熟悉且習慣這些圖表規格的呈現，惟須避免造成視覺疲勞。而展演方式則視個人風格特色而定，有些人適合沈穩嚴肅，有些人適合親切活潑，但考量電視是視覺展演的平台，動的畫面會比靜的畫面吸引觀眾，不論是眼神、表情、手勢、觸控筆、左右走動都是牽動觀眾視覺的重要元素，讓主播的講解、動作與鏡面三者在視聽感官上的互動，達到人機一體展演的效果。 氣象主播的個性發揮與風格確立，關係品牌形象與信賴感。專業氣象人有過實務或學術訓練，如果加上好的展演訓練及觀眾緣，或者是非氣象專業的新聞人，經由豐富的新聞訓練及額外自修，都能獲得觀眾的喜愛與信賴。本研究經由對四位氣象主播播報的分析與歸納，最後提出一套颱風氣象播報準則，俾以提供有志從事電視（影音）氣象播報工作者之參考。 / Since the world has experienced extreme weather and natural disasters constantly, weather information has been closely related to the lives of human being. According to the survey conducted by the Central Meteorological Bureau in 2015, TV is still the main channel for the public to access to meteorological information and meteorological communication is a part of science communication. Based on a typhoon from the birth to death, this study explores 4 weather presenters during prime time broadcasting by the use of content analysis which includes 3 aspects: message presentation, media design and performace. Also, by conducting in-depth interviews with the 4 presenters, this study examines how the domestic weather presenters communicates with the public before and during the authorities announces the typhoon alert, and after the alert is lifted. News media face fierce competition in recent years which leads to the rise of infotainment. For example, TV weather presenter starts to dramatize the strength of typhoon when it's just 1000km or 2000km away. This study found that presenter’s academic background in science does affect the structure of narration. When typhoon is still far away and the impact is variable, Ren Li-yu and Lin Jia-kai are more likely to present with a conservative tone while Dai Li-kang is more suggestive. Wang Shu-li has the strongest suggestive tone. During the alert, Ren Li-yu focuses on the typhoon analysis, Lin Jia-kai is fond of using charts and graphics to analyze the current wind speed and rainfall. Dai Li-gang puts more emphasis on reminding audience to be cautious and to do as much as one can to prevent the typhoon. Wang Shu-li’s style is relatively lively and she tends to make an analogy with surrounding things to describe the typhoon. After the typhoon alert is lifted, Ren Li-yu, Lin Jia-kai and Dai Li-gang resumes to the usual weather broadcasting style immediately. However, Wang Shu-li’s way of presenting stays the same. From the aspect of media design, Lin Jia-kai presents in a virtual studio with particular TV screen layout, charts and graphics which is clearer and better than the other three. When it comes to performace style, the 4 presenters have their own style, Ren Li-yu is sincere and serious. On the other hand, Lin Jia-kai is more approachable and affinitive. Dai Li-gang seemed to be more aggressive and provocative. Lastly, Wang Shu-li tends to present the program with a lively style. Gestures and stylus could be important tools while presenting. Gesture weighs during broadcasting while the stylus could be used to show their professionalism, attracting more viewers. From the results of the analysis, the study also proposed typhoon forecasting criteria, first of all, the weather presenter’s long-term professional image. The narrative structure of the message must be adjusted as the typhoon approaches. When the typhoon is far away, the narration should be focused on “educating” the audience the knowledge of the atmospheric environment. While the typhoon is gradually close, the capacity to analyze the typhoon is the key to prevail against others. When the typhoon alert is announced, the ability to explain how the typhoon would impact Taiwan is the concern of audience. The key principle for weather forecast's animated background is visualization. The graphics and texts should be simple and easily digestible. Also, the program should let viewers absorb and familiarize with these presented charts. One thing that needs be avoided is visual fatigue. In terms of performace, some presenters are calm and serious, some are cordial and lively. Since television relies heavily on visualization, moving pictures are more eye-catching than still images. Otherwise, both eye contact and facial expressions, gestures, the use of touch pen, or even the body movement all play a dispensable role. Combining weather presenter’s narrative, gesture and chart, can deliver the best weather forecasting performance. TV weather presenter’s personality and personal style establishment is helpful to build brand image and earn the trust of the audience. Professional weather presenter with practical and academic training, plus good performance training; or for journalist without meteorological background, through abundant professional news training and self-study, they can win audience’s heart and trust.