Syftet är att evaluera Baselramverkets riskreglering i en konjunkturcykel med hänsyn till Östersjöregionens storbankers systemviktiga funktion. Studien antar främst en kvantitativ ansats i de två första delarna, nyckeltalsanalysen och buffertsimuleringen men även en kvalitativ ansats antas i den tredje delen, intervjuer.  Studien utgår från teorierna om Basel I och Basel II, nyckeltalsteori samt från tidigare forskning. Resultatet i studien består av nyckeltalanalys och simulering av åtta, i Östersjöregionen verksamma, bankers nyckeltal och buffert under 21 år samt sex djupintervjuer med representanter för såväl banker som regulatorer.  Slutsatser Att det inte finns något samband mellan Baselregleringens kapitaltäckning och bankernas risk eller konjunktur, att riskvägningen tenderar till att vara godtycklig och har större påverkan på buffert än Baselregleringens kapitaltäckning samt att mer transparens behövs i bankerna tyder på att Baselregleringens kapitaltäckningskrav i mycket liten utsträckning visar Östersjöregionens storbankers faktiska risk. / The purpose is to evaluate the Basel framework risk regulation in an economic cycle, in account to the systemic function of the large banks in the Baltic Sea region. The study mainly adopts a quantitative approach in the two first parts, the key ratio analysis and the buffer simulation. A qualitative element is also implemented in the third part, interviews. In a theoretical perspective the study is based on the Basel I and Basel II framework, key ratio theories and previously conducted research.  The result consists of key ratios analysis and buffer simulation for eight banks in the Baltic Sea region for a period of 21 years and interviews with six representatives of banks and regulatory institutions.  Conclusion                                   The absence of correlation between the Basel regulation capital adequacy and the bank risk nor economic cycle, that risk weighting tends to be arbitrary and have greater impact on bank buffer than capital adequacy regulation has, and that more transparency is needed in banking; suggests that the Basel capital adequacy to a small extent reflect actual risk.

We present a series of improvements to the Hybrid system, a formal theory implemented in Isabelle/HOL to support specifying and reasoning about formal systems using higher-order abstract syntax (HOAS). We modify Hybrid's type of terms, which is built definitionally in terms of de Bruijn indices, to exclude at the type level terms with `dangling' indices. We strengthen the injectivity property for Hybrid's variable-binding operator, and develop rules for compositional proof of its side condition, avoiding conversion from HOAS to de Bruijn indices. We prove representational adequacy of Hybrid (with these improvements) for a lambda-calculus-like subset of Isabelle/HOL syntax, at the level of set-theoretic semantics and without unfolding Hybrid's definition in terms of de Bruijn indices. In further work, we prove an induction principle that maintains some of the benefits of HOAS even for open terms. We also present a case study of the formalization in Hybrid of a small programming language, Mini-ML with mutable references, including its operational semantics and a type-safety property. This is the largest case study in Hybrid to date, and the first to formalize a language with mutable references. We compare four variants of this formalization based on the two-level approach adopted by Felty and Momigliano in other recent work on Hybrid, with various specification logics (SLs), including substructural logics, formalized in Isabelle/HOL and used in turn to encode judgments of the object language. We also compare these with a variant that does not use an intermediate SL layer. In the course of the case study, we explore and develop new proof techniques, particularly in connection with context invariants and induction on SL statements.

We present a series of improvements to the Hybrid system, a formal theory implemented in Isabelle/HOL to support specifying and reasoning about formal systems using higher-order abstract syntax (HOAS). We modify Hybrid's type of terms, which is built definitionally in terms of de Bruijn indices, to exclude at the type level terms with `dangling' indices. We strengthen the injectivity property for Hybrid's variable-binding operator, and develop rules for compositional proof of its side condition, avoiding conversion from HOAS to de Bruijn indices. We prove representational adequacy of Hybrid (with these improvements) for a lambda-calculus-like subset of Isabelle/HOL syntax, at the level of set-theoretic semantics and without unfolding Hybrid's definition in terms of de Bruijn indices. In further work, we prove an induction principle that maintains some of the benefits of HOAS even for open terms. We also present a case study of the formalization in Hybrid of a small programming language, Mini-ML with mutable references, including its operational semantics and a type-safety property. This is the largest case study in Hybrid to date, and the first to formalize a language with mutable references. We compare four variants of this formalization based on the two-level approach adopted by Felty and Momigliano in other recent work on Hybrid, with various specification logics (SLs), including substructural logics, formalized in Isabelle/HOL and used in turn to encode judgments of the object language. We also compare these with a variant that does not use an intermediate SL layer. In the course of the case study, we explore and develop new proof techniques, particularly in connection with context invariants and induction on SL statements.

Face au vieillissement démographique, l’adéquation de l’offre et de la demande de la prise en charge de la dépendance est au cœur des politiques de santé publique. L’objectif de ce travail est d’estimer la consommation d’hébergement des personnes âgées dépendantes pour un horizon de 5 à 10 ans en intégrant l’origine géographique des résidents. En effet, ces derniers ne cherchent pas nécessairement une réponse d’hébergement à proximité de leur lieu de résidence. On peut ainsi bâtir un « scénario moyen » pour mesurer la consommation d’hébergement actuelle, construire des bassins gérontologiques et envisager des projections d’hébergement les plus précises possibles, selon le postulat « toute chose égale par ailleurs ». Cette recherche menée en Poitou-Charentes en 2010 permet une analyse prospective qui annonce un déficit du nombre de places d’hébergement dès 2017 et qui devrait s’amplifier au cours des années suivantes. Ces résultats trouvent toute leur légitimité pour aider la planification gérontologique et adapter l’offre à la demande à différentes échelles. De plus, ils rendent possible l’appréhension du volume d’emplois non « délocalisables ». / In view of demographic ageing, the adequacy between supply and demand of older population needs is placed in the heart of the public health policy. The aim of this work is to estimate the housing consumption of dependent older people for the time horizon from 5 to 10 years by integrating the geographical origins of residents. In fact, these latter don't necessarily look for an accommodation close to their place of residence. Thus a 'medium scenario' can be proposed to measure the current consumption,build gerontological basins and plan the most accurate possible senior housing projections according to 'all else being equal' principle. This research conducted in Poitou-Charentes in 2010 allows to do a prospective analysis which reveals a deficit in the number of rousing places from 2017 and this deficit is expected to increase over the following years. These results have all legitimacy to help gerontological planning and adapt supply to demand at different scales. Moreover, they make possible the estimation of the volume of 'non relocatable' jobs.

Contexte: L'utilisation de suppléments alimentaires est répandue chez les populations américaines et canadiennes en général, mais on en sait peu sur la consommation de suppléments alimentaires dans la population autochtone canadienne. Objectif: L'objectif général de cette étude est de prendre en compte l'utilisation de suppléments alimentaires dans l'évaluation nutritionnelle des apports alimentaires des adultes des Premières nations vivant dans les réserves en Colombie-Britannique et Manitoba. Conception: Les données ont été recueillies par l’étude ‘First Nations Food, Nutrition, and Environment Study’ de 1103 (Colombie-Britannique) et 706 (Manitoba) adultes des Premières Nations âgés de 19 à 70 ans. L'étude a utilisé un rappel alimentaire des dernières 24 heures (avec un deuxième rappel pour un sous-échantillon) pour évaluer la diète alimentaire. L'utilisation de suppléments alimentaires et des antiacides ont été recueillis par un questionnaire de fréquence. En utilisant le logiciel SIDE pour tenir compte des variations intra-individuelles dans la prise alimentaire et la technique du bootstrap pour obtenir des estimations représentatives des différentes régions, l'utilisation de suppléments de la vitamine A, D, C et de calcium ont été intégrées aux estimations de la consommation alimentaire. Résultats: Environ 30% des adultes des Premières Nations de la Colombie-Britannique et seulement 13,2% des adultes des Premières Nations du Manitoba âgés entre 19-70 ans vivant dans les réserves ont déclaré utiliser au moins un supplément alimentaire durant les 30 jours précédents. Lors de l'examen des nutriments d'intérêt, un plus faible pourcentage de la population en a fait usage, de 14,8 à 18,5% en Colombie-Britannique et de 4,9 à 8% de la population du Manitoba. La prévalence de l'usage de tout supplément alimentaire était plus élevée chez les femmes que chez les hommes dans tous les groupes d'âge et augmente avec l'âge dans les deux sexes. La plus forte prévalence d'un apport insuffisant provenant de la nourriture a été observée pour la vitamine D et le calcium en Colombie-Britannique et Manitoba, variant de 75 à 100%, et de la vitamine A dans le Manitoba (73-96%). Après avoir examiné l'utilisation de suppléments alimentaires, plus des trois quarts des participants n’ont toujours pas réussi à répondre au besoin moyen estimatif pour ces nutriments. La vitamine C est l'oligo-élément avec le plus faible pourcentage sous le besoin moyen estimatif (avec au sans suppléments) pour la Colombie-Britannique et le Manitoba. Conclusion: La majorité des adultes des Premières nations de la Colombie-Britannique et du Manitoba, même après prise en compte de l'utilisation de suppléments alimentaires, avaient des apports en vitamines A, D et des apports de calcium sous les niveaux recommandés. L'utilisation de compléments alimentaires n'a pas contribué de façon significative à l'apport total en nutriments sélectionnés sauf pour la vitamine C dans certains groupes d'âge. / Background: The use of dietary supplements is prevalent among general US and Canadian populations; however, little is known about consumption of nutritional supplements among the Canadian Aboriginal population. Objective: The overall goal of this study was to integrate supplement use into dietary intake for the assessment of nutritional adequacy in British Columbia and Manitoba First Nation adults living on reserve. Design: Data were collected by the First Nations Food, Nutrition, and Environment Study from 1103 BC and 706 MA First Nation adults aged 19-70 years old. The study used 24-hour food recalls (with a second recall in a subsample) to assess diet. Dietary supplement and antacid use were collected by a frequency questionnaire. Using SIDE software to account for intra-individual variation in food intake and bootstrap weights to obtain regionally representative estimates, vitamin A, D, C, and calcium supplement use were incorporated to food intake estimates. Results: About 30% of British Columbia and only 13.2% of Manitoba First Nation people aged 19-70 y living on reserve reported use of at least one dietary supplement within the prior 30 days. When considering the nutrients of interest, a smaller percentage of the populations took them varying from nutrient to nutrient from 14.8 to 18.5% in British Columbia and from 4.9 to 8% in Manitoba population. The prevalence of use of any dietary supplement was higher among women than men in all age groups and increased with age in both genders. The highest prevalence of inadequate intakes from food alone was observed for vitamin D and calcium in both British Columbia and Manitoba varying from 75 to 100%, and for vitamin A in Manitoba (73-96%). After considering the use of dietary supplements, more than three fourth of participants still failed to meet the EAR for these nutrients. Vitamin C was the micronutrient with the lowest percentage of BC and Manitoba participants bellow the EAR with or without supplements consumption.

We present a series of improvements to the Hybrid system, a formal theory implemented in Isabelle/HOL to support specifying and reasoning about formal systems using higher-order abstract syntax (HOAS). We modify Hybrid's type of terms, which is built definitionally in terms of de Bruijn indices, to exclude at the type level terms with `dangling' indices. We strengthen the injectivity property for Hybrid's variable-binding operator, and develop rules for compositional proof of its side condition, avoiding conversion from HOAS to de Bruijn indices. We prove representational adequacy of Hybrid (with these improvements) for a lambda-calculus-like subset of Isabelle/HOL syntax, at the level of set-theoretic semantics and without unfolding Hybrid's definition in terms of de Bruijn indices. In further work, we prove an induction principle that maintains some of the benefits of HOAS even for open terms. We also present a case study of the formalization in Hybrid of a small programming language, Mini-ML with mutable references, including its operational semantics and a type-safety property. This is the largest case study in Hybrid to date, and the first to formalize a language with mutable references. We compare four variants of this formalization based on the two-level approach adopted by Felty and Momigliano in other recent work on Hybrid, with various specification logics (SLs), including substructural logics, formalized in Isabelle/HOL and used in turn to encode judgments of the object language. We also compare these with a variant that does not use an intermediate SL layer. In the course of the case study, we explore and develop new proof techniques, particularly in connection with context invariants and induction on SL statements.

資本適足率（capital adequacy ratio，即實業界所稱之BIS比率）為金融界評估商銀風險之重要指標，在反映資本結構以至於倒閉風險的意義上，相較於財務分析常用的權益值對總資產比率，BIS比率應是一個更精確的指標。本研究先藉資本市場銀行股長天期窗口超額報酬率反映投資人所要求報酬中之風險貼水，探討投資人是否可以引用資本適足率衡量國內商銀的倒閉風險與流動性風險。此外，本研究亦針對壞帳費用與票券買賣損益兩項富裁量空間之科目，分析國內商業銀行策略性操縱帳面盈餘與資本問題。最後，就現行我國資本適足率規定之缺失，作進一步之檢討，並檢測調整部份風險性資產之風險權數後，對資本適足率解釋投資人所要求必要報酬間關係之影響。 實證結果發現，不論是商銀呈報金融主管機關之資本適足率，或是就銀行所發布資料，儘可能比照公訂資本適足率核算辦法所自行設算、不含資產負債表外風險性資產所計算之比值，甚至自行設算、僅考慮自有資本中之第一類資本（Tier 1 Capital）估算值，均與商銀股市超額報酬有顯著之負血關係，顯示資本適足率對投資人而言，屬攸關資訊，能幫助評估銀行倒閉風險，進而決定其所要求之必要報酬率。又國內商銀中，民營銀行股超額報酬對資本適足率之迴歸係數，較公營銀行更具負向關係，而民國八十一年後新成立之銀行對資本適足率之迴歸係數，亦較八十一年前成立之舊銀行更具負向關係，而景氣較蕭條時，資本適足率與報酬間之關係並未較繁榮期敏感。 在盈餘與資本調控部份，或因使用不同調控工具之成本差異，致使商業銀行在帳面資本不足時，傾向于增加提列壞帳費用；另一方面，銀行似乎為了損益平穩化之目的，而以多實現或少實現票券買賣損益作為調控當期盈餘之工具，此兩項潛在之盈餘調控工具，彼此間有著相互替代代，惟因實現票券買賣損益之成本因時而異，國內商業銀行引用此兩項工具相互替補的程度實隨資本市場榮枯而改變。在估算國內商銀壞帳費用不可裁量部份時，本研究發現以上期壞帳、本期逾催收款、應收匯兌承兌款及無擔保放款餘額估計壞帳，比過動國外文獻所採變數組更恰當。 / This thesis empirically examines the explanatory power of capital adequacy ratio (BIS ratio) to Taiwan's commercial bank long-windowed returns minus risk-free rates (hereafter excess return), investigating whether the ratio serves to measure the level of risk of these banks equity securities. Findings indicate the followings: (1) ceteris paribus, long-windowed bank returns negatively correlate with each and every measure of BIS ratio in this study. These results are consistent with the notion that capital adequacy ratio conveys relevant information regarding the bank shareholders risk; (2) required rate of security returns appears to be more (less) sensitive to the BIS ratio for banks founded after (prior to) 1992 and for non-state-owned (state-owned) commercial banks; (3) there is not corroborative evidence that macro-economic variables have incremental explanatory power to the regression coefficient for the BIS ratio. Further, by identifying and examining the potential discretionary components of Taiwan's commercial bank loan loss provisions (LLPs) and securities gains and losses (RSGs), this study aims at exploring these banks' accruals management practices. Robust against various sensitivity tests, empirical findings support the notion that commercial banks strategically increase their LLPs to avoid unfavorable capital adequacy ratios. On the other hand, this study finds these banks smooth reported earnings via RSGs. Moreover, our evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that LLPs and RSGs serve as substitutes for each other in commercial bank accruals management. However, the extent these banks exercise discretion via either measure varies with domestic capital market performance. For tests in this study, the specification of simultaneous equations outperforms the competing ordinary least square regression models. This study also provides an innovative design for estimating bank loan loss provisions. As compared with competing designs, our model, which relates commercial bank LLPs to non-performing assets, unsecured loans, accrued acceptances and prior-period loan loss provisions, produce a more efficient predictor for Taiwan's commercial bank LLPs.

Face au vieillissement démographique, l’adéquation de l’offre et de la demande de la prise en charge de la dépendance est au cœur des politiques de santé publique. L’objectif de ce travail est d’estimer la consommation d’hébergement des personnes âgées dépendantes pour un horizon de 5 à 10 ans en intégrant l’origine géographique des résidents. En effet, ces derniers ne cherchent pas nécessairement une réponse d’hébergement à proximité de leur lieu de résidence. On peut ainsi bâtir un « scénario moyen » pour mesurer la consommation d’hébergement actuelle, construire des bassins gérontologiques et envisager des projections d’hébergement les plus précises possibles, selon le postulat « toute chose égale par ailleurs ». Cette recherche menée en Poitou-Charentes en 2010 permet une analyse prospective qui annonce un déficit du nombre de places d’hébergement dès 2017 et qui devrait s’amplifier au cours des années suivantes. Ces résultats trouvent toute leur légitimité pour aider la planification gérontologique et adapter l’offre à la demande à différentes échelles. De plus, ils rendent possible l’appréhension du volume d’emplois non « délocalisables ». / In view of demographic ageing, the adequacy between supply and demand of older population needs is placed in the heart of the public health policy. The aim of this work is to estimate the housing consumption of dependent older people for the time horizon from 5 to 10 years by integrating the geographical origins of residents. In fact, these latter don't necessarily look for an accommodation close to their place of residence. Thus a 'medium scenario' can be proposed to measure the current consumption,build gerontological basins and plan the most accurate possible senior housing projections according to 'all else being equal' principle. This research conducted in Poitou-Charentes in 2010 allows to do a prospective analysis which reveals a deficit in the number of rousing places from 2017 and this deficit is expected to increase over the following years. These results have all legitimacy to help gerontological planning and adapt supply to demand at different scales. Moreover, they make possible the estimation of the volume of 'non relocatable' jobs.

No description available.

O presente trabalho visa a analisar a preparação de alunos chineses para o exame Celpe-Bras, com o intuito de investigar se há efeito retroativo do exame nesse processo. Para tanto, foi desenvolvida uma pesquisa qualitativa da qual participaram três alunas chinesas e dois professores de um curso preparatório para o Celpe-Bras, no qual elas participaram. O estudo focaliza as atividades desenvolvidas no curso e as atividades extraclasse realizadas pelas alunas para preparar-se para o exame. Os dados para a pesquisa foram gerados pela observação de oito aulas do curso preparatório e pelo acompanhamento das alunas em atividades extraclasse. Além disso, foram feitas oito entrevistas com as alunas e duas com os professores, e os textos produzidos nas aulas foram analisados em relação ao feedback dos professores e à compreensão das alunas quanto às orientação recebidas. A análise dos resultados permite afirmar que as orientações do curso preparatório são coerentes com os pressupostos teóricos que subjazem ao exame e que focalizam principalmente o critério de correção adequação contextual, que operacionaliza a noção de proficiência do exame: uso da linguagem para agir no mundo. Essa orientação contribuiu especialmente para aprimorar a compreensão oral e a organização das produções escritas das alunas. A pesquisa também sugere que a percepção das alunas sobre a maneira de aprender uma língua modificou-se durante a preparação para o exame: sua compreensão da perspectiva de proficiência como uso da linguagem e sua busca por lidar com textos autênticos também na vida cotidiana, como preparação para o exame, sugerem um efeito retroativo positivo do Celpe-Bras na trajetória de aprendizagem de língua portuguesa dessas alunas. Os resultados desta pesquisa contribuem para o debate sobre o efeito retroativo de exames de desempenho, para a elaboração de cursos preparatórios para o exame Celpe-Bras e para a organização de currículos de ensino que tenham como objetivo o uso da linguagem. / The aim of this study is to analyze the preparation of Chinese students for the Celpe-Bras proficiency exam and discuss the washback effects of the exam on this process. A qualitative research was carried out with three Chinese students and two teachers of a cram course taken by these students. The study focuses on the activities developed by the prep course and the extra class activities carried out by the students to prepare for the exam. The data include the observation of eight classes of the cram course and of the students’ extra class activities, eight interviews with the students and two with the teachers, and the texts produced by the students, which were analyzed with respect to the teachers’ feedback and to the students’ understanding of the guidance they received during the prep course. The results suggest that the guidelines of the prep course are consistent with the construct of the exam and focus mainly on the correction criterion ‘adequacy to context’, which operationalizes the underlying concept of language proficiency of the exam: the adequate use of the language to perform actions in the world. The course guidelines contributed especially to improve the students’ listening and writing skills. In addition, the students’ perceptions of their language learning process changed during the preparation for the exam: their understanding of the language proficiency concept ‘use of language’ and their search for reading and listening to authentic texts, also in their daily lives, to prepare for the exam suggest a positive washback effect of the Celpe-Bras on these students’ Portuguese learning process. The results of this research contribute to the debate on the washback effects of performance tests, to the elaboration of cram courses for the Celpe-Bras exam, and to the organization of educational curricula that aim at developing the use of language.