Tendo como pano de fundo o grande crescimento da pecuária de corte no Brasil e o substancial avanço observado nas exportações de carne bovina, este estudo teve como objetivo principal identificar os fatores responsáveis pelo excelente desempenho que vem tendo esse segmento do agronegócio. Para a condução deste trabalho, fez-se necessário a construção de um modelo teórico capaz de dar suporte à especificação do modelo econométrico usado para quantificar os impactos de variações nos determinantes da oferta e da demanda de carne bovina sobre a produção e exportação deste produto. Para fundamentar a construção do modelo teórico fez-se necessário um estudo analítico sobre diversos aspectos relacionados à produção, ao consumo e à comercialização de carne bovina nos mercados interno e internacional. Além disso, foi abordada, também, a influência do uso de instrumentos de gerenciamento de risco e de financiamento da produção (CPR, contratos futuros e mercado a termo) no aumento da oferta de carne bovina observado nos últimos anos. Os resultados mostram que a determinante do crescimento do produto pecuário e das exportações de carne bovina brasileira foi o estoque de animais. Um choque positivo de 1% nessa variável eleva o produto em 7,6% após 8 trimestres, e em cerca de 13% as exportações. Os resultados indicam, também, que o aumento do rebanho bovino reduz tanto os preços ao produtor como os no varejo. Outra variável importante foi a produtividade, que afetou positivamente e de forma expressiva a produção e as exportações. Os efeitos dos preços ao produtor e ao varejo sobre as exportações são expressivos, mas somente no curto prazo. Quanto aos resultados da decomposição histórica dos erros de previsão, pode-se inferir que o modelo apresentou boa performance em termos de ajustamento, para algumas variáveis, podendo-se citar: o estoque de animais e os preços ao produtor. Quanto aos resultados da decomposição da variância dos erros de previsão, conclui-se que muitos resultados encontrados corroboram os obtidos nas funções de impulso resposta. / This study aims to identify the factors which are responsible for the excellent performance of the beef cattle sector, taking its growth in Brazil and the increase of beef exports into account. The construction of a theoretical model which is capable to support the specification process of the econometric model used to quantify the impacts of the variations in the factors which are responsible for both supply and demand of beef in production and exports is necessary to conduct this study. An analytical study regarding several aspects of production, consumption and beef trading in both domestic and international markets is necessary to construct a theoretical model. Moreover, this study involves the influence of the use of risk management and financing of production tools (CPR, future contracts and term markets) in the increase in beef supply observed over the last years. Results show that the stock of animals influences the growth of the cattle product and Brazilian beef exports. A positive shock of 1% in this variable increases the product in 7.6% after eight trimesters, and, as for shipments, in roughly 13%. Results indicate also that the increase in the bovine livestock reduces prices paid to producers and values in the retail market. Yield is also an important variable, because it has affected positively and expressively production and shipments. The effects of prices paid to producers and in the retail market are expressive, but only in the short-terms. Concerning results of the historical decomposition of forecast mistakes, it can be inferred that the model has presented a good performance regarding adjustment for some variables, such as animal stocks and prices paid to producers. As for the results of the decomposition of oscillations of forecast mistakes, it can be said that several results found corroborate that obtained in the impulse response function.

農漁會組織長久以來於農業發展扮演重要角色，其促進農業生產，增進農民福祉與繁榮農村經濟，對台灣早期之經濟發展貢獻許多。隨著經濟結構的變動，農會信用部面對產業結構的轉變及其他金融機構的激烈競爭，致使其經營陷入困境，經過金融重建基金處理了36家經營不善信用部，宣佈分級管理措施，及12萬農民大遊行，政府為徹底解決信用部諸多問題，於93年1月實施農業金融法，建立由行政院農業委員會一元化管理之農業金融體系，經過一連串之改革，相關財務指標顯示信用部之經營已逐漸改善中。 本研究主要探討我國農業金融體制與信用部面臨的問題，並參考日本農業金融改革之經驗，提出健全我國農業金融體制與監理之建議。 研究發現，農業金融改革後信用部之經營確實在改善中。然而，在80年代農業金融危機下遺留的問題尚未完全克服。對於我國農業金融發展，本研究從組織面、業務面與監理面進行探討，提出改革建議包括：全面檢討修訂農會法與漁會法、儘速恢復股金制、建置合併法規鼓勵合併、儘速處理經營不善之信用部並建構多元退場機制、加強農業金融體系連結與加速資訊共用平台之整合、強化對全國農業金庫與信用部之監理、落實金融監理加強實地檢查與場外監控措施、導入差異化管理與立即糾正措施等，農業金融機構有必要繼續改革，以健全農業金融體系，保障存款人權益，促進農漁村經濟發展。 / The Farmers’ and Fishermen’s Associations played an important role in the field of agricultural production. They helped agriculture develop, increased farmers’ and fishermen’s welfare, flourished the countryside and contributed a lot to the early progress of Taiwan economy. With the transition of economic structure, the whole environment became quite disadvantageous to credit departments of farmers’ and fishermens’ associations, which face the changes of the industrial structure and fierce competition from other financial institutions. With the experiences of the settlement of 36 problem credit departments by the Financial Restructuring Fund, announcement of differential supervision scheme and demonstration of 120,000 agriculturists, the government implemented the Agricultural Finance Act on 30th January 2004 and built an integrated agricultural finance system governed by the Council of Agriculture (COA) to solve many problems of credit departments. Through those reformations, the financial index showed that the condition of these credit departments has improved gradually. This study aimed to discuss those difficulties that our agricultural finance system and credit departments encountered and bring up suggestions to complete this system and the government’s supervision referring to the reformation of agricultural finance system in Japan. What our study found is that the operation of credit departments has undoubtedly improved after taking reformations to agricultural finance system in Taiwan. However, problems that the agricultural finance crisis left behind in 1980s have not been completely conquered yet. As to the prospect of our agricultural finance system, from the aspects of organizational structures, business activities and government’s supervision, we suggest the reforms include to examine and amend both the Farmers’ Association Law and the Fishermen’s Association Law from stem to stern, re-enforce paid-in capital system with all speed, draw up laws to encourage mergers, deal with problem credit departments and build up plenty selections to help them exit as soon as possible, strengthen the connection of agricultural finance system and the integration of information sharing stations, intensify our supervision towards the Agricultural Bank of Taiwan and credit departments, reinforce on-the-spot examination and off-site monitoring, bring differential supervision scheme and prompt-corrective action into practice and so on. Hence, we may achieve the goal to complete the agricultural finance system, protect the rights of depositors and prosper the rural villages’ and fishing villages’ economy.

In 2008, New Zealand’s gross domestic product (GDP) was four times the size of Uruguay’s, and its export earnings were five times Uruguay’s. Nevertheless, agricultural products accounted for over 60% of export earnings for both economies. This highlighted the importance that the agricultural sectors of Uruguay and New Zealand had to their respective foreign trade sectors. The success with which both countries’ agricultural sectors solved their financial needs would be influential to their export sectors and overall economies. Through the use of expert interviews, a multiple-case study strategy was employed to carry out a comparative study of the agricultural financing systems of Uruguay and New Zealand. The findings revealed contrasting situations in both countries. Chief among them were the differences encountered in agricultural debt relative to agriculture’s contribution to total GDP in each country. In Uruguay this figure was 26% whereas in New Zealand it amounted to almost 400%. The differences found were largely attributable to the institutional frameworks in place in each country (i.e. the legal and cultural norms that structure political, social and economic interactions), as well as the historical contexts in which the institutions evolved. In Uruguay, the institutional framework limited producers’ possibilities of accessing bank credit due to restrictive central bank regulations. The lack of access to international credit markets by Uruguayan banks due to the country’s unfavourable credit risk rating was an additional factor which limited credit availability. These were largely a result of the financial crisis (and the subsequent recession) that had occurred in the region in 2002. Producers in Uruguay were able to access costlier seasonal capital and some medium-term capital from informal lenders such as cooperatives, processors and input suppliers. Nevertheless, if they required medium and long term credit, Uruguayan farmers needed to deal with the banking system. Furthermore, the high cost of registering mortgages, combined with long-term loan facilities that generally did not go for longer than ten years, resulted in a limited demand for high-volume, long-term credit on producers’ side. Almost the exact opposite situation was found in New Zealand. No great financial turmoil had affected New Zealand since the economic reforms of 1984, in which the economy in general was deregulated. An institutional framework which promoted access to credit, combined with a favourable country credit risk rating which promoted open access to overseas funding for banks, meant that the agricultural sector was able to expand its use of credit uninterruptedly since the early 1990s. Also, in contrast with the Uruguayan case, mortgaging of properties was relatively straightforward and inexpensive, and long term lending could be approved for terms of generally up to 20 years. These factors contributed to the expansion of rural credit in New Zealand. However, New Zealand’s agricultural debt was found to be greatly exposed to one subsector (the dairy farming sector). Moreover, the level of debt of New Zealand’s agricultural sector surpassed its contribution to GDP many times over, which raised doubts concerning the long-term sustainability of that level of debt.

L’agriculture et le secteur rural jouent un rôle primordial dans le processus de développement des pays à base agricole. Cett efonction ne peut être assurée qu’à l’aide de politiques publiques qui tiennent compte de la diversité et de la complexité desmilieux ruraux. Le préalable est donc d’avoir des connaissances approfondies de chaque contexte et des dynamiques qui ysont en cours. Ce travail propose alors d’analyser, dans une perspective microéconomique, les relations entre structurationsociale des milieux ruraux et transformation structurelle avec une application à Madagascar, dans la région d’Itasy. La class ede la Petite Prospérité, qui est une adaptation de la notion de classe moyenne en milieu rural pauvre, est alors utilisée commegrille d’analyse. A cette fin, la première étape de recherche consiste en une construction conceptuelle, théorique etméthodologique de la classe de la Petite Prospérité en mobilisant le cadre conceptuel des moyens d’existence ruraux afin deproduire un cadre d’analyse opérationnel. Dans un second temps, le cadre défini est mis en oeuvre dans la stratificationmultidimensionnelle de l’espace social en Itasy à l’aide d’une méthode de classification mixte sur des données quantitativesde 2008. Cette étape permet de mettre en évidence les différentes classes sociales et de Petites Prospérités en Itasy quireflètent l’hétérogénéité de la nature et de l’efficacité des moyens d’existence des ménages ruraux. Dans une troisième étape ,une analyse dynamique des groupes de Petites Prospérités est menée à l’aide de la combinaison de méthodes quantitatives etqualitatives sur une période d’observation longue. Plusieurs trajectoires associées aux différentes classes sont observées etpermettent de comprendre les processus de construction et de transformation des organisations productives familiales enItasy. La dernière étape du travail traite la problématique spécifique de la demande de crédit et de l’adéquation de l’offre surle marché financier en Itasy. Il apparait une forte segmentation de la demande de financement en fonction des groupessociaux et la difficulté de l’offre disponible à satisfaire leurs besoins, malgré l’existence de produits innovants. Des politiquesinclusives et adaptées à chaque classe de ménages s’avèrent donc nécessaires pour assurer un processus de transformationstructurelle rapide et harmonieux en Itasy. / Agriculture and rural sector play a key role in the development process of agriculture-based countries. This function can beensured only by public policy that takes into account the diversity and complexity of rural areas. It is therefore essential todeepen the knowledge of each context and the ongoing dynamics. This study introduces an analysis of the relationshipsbetween rural social structure and structural transformation through a microeconomic perspective, with an application inMadagascar, in the Itasy region. Specifically, the Moderate Prosperty class, which is an adaptation of the middle class notionto poor rural areas, is used as an analytical framework. To this end, the first step aims to conduct a conceptual, theoretical andmethodological construction of the Moderate Prosperity notion by using the rural livelihoods framework and provides anoperational conceptual framework. Second, the conceptual framework, thus defined, is used to implement a multidimensionalstratification of the social space in Itasy by conducting a classification method on quantitative data dating from 2008. Thisstep aims to define the various Moderate Prosperity and social classes that reflect the heterogeneity of the nature andprofitability of the rural households’ livelihoods. Third, a dynamic analysis of the Moderate Prosperity groups is conductedby combining quantitative with qualitative methods based on a longer observation period. Several trajectories linked to thevarious classes can be observed. They allow us to understand the construction and transformation process of the familyproductive organizations in Itasy. The last step uses the Moderate Prosperity framework to study the specific issue of thecredit demand and the supply adequacy on the financial market in Itasy. It appears that the financing demand is highlysegmented according to the social groups and the available supply cannot meet their financing needs, despite the existence ofinnovative products. Inclusive policies that are adapted to each household profile are therefore necessary to ensure a rapidand harmonious structural transformation in Itasy.

Face à l’instabilité des cours agricoles et à ses conséquences notamment pour les pays en développement, la première partie de cette thèse est consacrée à la présentation des déterminants des cours des matières premières alimentaires, incluant les évolutions récentes en matière d’offre, en tenant compte des conséquences du réchauffement climatique, et de demande, considérant notamment les biocarburants. Il est également question de présenter la financiarisation en cours des économies, et les doutes qui planent sur le rôle que peuvent avoir la spéculation sur les marchés à terme ou encore la mise en œuvre des politiques monétaires, sur les cours au comptant observés sur les marchés physiques des produits agricoles. Suite aux réflexions et éléments de littérature avancés, la seconde partie procède de deux études empiriques. La première est axée sur l’impact de la spéculation sur les marchés financiers à terme sur le cours des sous-jacents (agricoles), alors que la seconde questionne le rôle des marchés monétaires, abordé à travers la capacité du banquier central à stabiliser les taux d’intérêt à court terme. Sur cette base, des conclusions mais également des pistes de recherche sont établies, du fait du prolongement en cours du processus de financiarisation des économies. / Faced with instability of agricultural commodities’ prices and its consequences especially for developing countries, the first part of this thesis is devoted to the presentation of food commodities’ prices, including recent developments with respect to the offering, taking into account the consequences of global warming and demand, as well as the importance of biofuels. It is also question to present the financialization of economies, and the doubts that take over the role of speculation on the futures markets or the implementation of monetary policies, on the spot prices observed on physical agricultural commodities markets. Following the advanced literature reflections and elements, the second part proceeds of two empirical studies, the first one focused on the impact of speculation about the financial futures markets on the underlying asset’s price (agricultural), while the second one examines the role of money markets through the capacities of the central banker to stabilize short-term interest rates. On this basis, conclusions but also future research are established due to the continuation of the economies financialization process.

本研究分析我國49家本國銀行、55家信用合作社、287家農會信用部及27家漁會信用部等四類金融機構之經營現況，並參照各國金融預警制度運作方式，選取適合的財務比率，運用SAS統計軟體及Z-score、Logistic等模型，分別找出造成各類金融機構經營失敗之顯著相關財務比率，評估各類金融機構之經營效率、失敗機率與模型之正確區別率，以建立預測金融機構失敗機率之預警模型。研究之樣本資料分別為：本國銀行49家、2001年第2季~2003年底共計11季25項財務比率，信用合作社55家、1998年底~2003年底共計21季26項財務比率，農會信用部287家1998年底~2003年底共計21季25項財務比率，漁會信用部27家1998年底~2003年底共計21季25項財務比率。 本研究之結論為： 一、彙整Z-Score模型對各類金融機構具有顯著性之財務變數，本國銀行有6項、信用合作社有7項、農會信用部有6項，漁會信用部有4項。 二、彙整Logistic模型對各類金融機構具有顯著性之財務變數，本國銀行、信用合作社各有6項，農會信用部有5項，漁會信用部有4項。 三、金融預警模型中，Logistic模型較Z-Score模型有較高的正確區別率。 / This research analyzes 49 domestic banks, 55 credit cooperative unions, 287 credit department of farmer associations and 27 credit department of fisherman associations above four kind of financial institution´s management situation, and refers the operation ways of various countries financial early warning system, selects suitable financial ratios , utilizes SAS statistics software and Z-score, Logistic models, it identifies the root cause of bankruptcy thus reveals finance of ratio the correlation, appraises management efficiency, the defeat probability each kind of financial institution if the correct difference rate. It appraises each kind of financial institution´s management efficiency, defeats probability and correct difference rate. It establishes early warning model that forecasts financial institutions failure rate. The research model and period: used 49 domestic banks from 2001 in 2nd season to the end of 2003 total 11 seasons and 25 items of finance ratio、55 credit cooperative associations from the end of 1998 to the end of 2003 total 21 seasons and 26 items of finance ratio、287 credit department of farmer associations and 27 credit department of fisherman associations from the end of 1998 to the end of 2003 total 21 seasons which used respectively 25 items of finance ratio. The conclusion of this research are: Firstly, it collects the entire Z-Score model to have significant financial indicator to each kind of financial institution, the domestic banks have 6 items, the credit cooperative associations have 7 items, the credit department of farmer associations have 6 items, and the credit department of fisherman associations have 4 items. Secondly, it collects the entire Logistic model to have significant financial indicator to each kind of financial institution, the domestic banks and the credit cooperative associations have 6 items respectively, the credit department of farmer associations have 5 items, and the credit department of fisherman associations have 4 items. Thirdly, in the financial early warning model, when comparing Z-Score with Logistic model , the latter appears to have a higher correct difference rate.