This PhD thesis examines the status of ‘expert knowledge’ in the history of U.S. asymmetric, or ‘counterinsurgency’ (COIN), warfare during the last century. The historical rise of expert influence has so far been neglected in the study of wars within the field of International Relations and the thesis will give us an indication of the importance and utility of expert knowledge. With a specific focus on the campaigns in the Philippines (1899-1902), Vietnam (1954-75) and Iraq (2003-11), the central research question guiding the project is as follows: “What were the conditions for the evolution, the constitution and the use of ‘outside’ expert knowledge in U.S. counterinsurgency campaigns?” The thesis claims that military and academic ‘experts’ had a key role in framing and implementing the problem-sets and solutions to these conflicts. They have, in Iraq in particular, played an important part in developing the campaigns’ ex-post-facto justification of success. Within the framework of organisational knowledge production, this knowledge does not necessarily play an instrumental role for the military. Instead, it can also serve a merely symbolic function, demonstrating to the audience and stakeholders within the political environment that the organisation is willing to solve the problems the insurgents pose, but without any interest in long-term utilisation of the knowledge. This thesis argues that across time, from the beginning of the Philippine-American War in 1898 to the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq in 2011, ‘counterinsurgency’ has developed from a tactical and operational tool, used instrumentally to fight insurgencies, to a strategy or even ‘ideology’ in its own right. Whilst the methods or techniques of counterinsurgency remain basically the same, expert knowledge is increasingly used in modern – that is post-World War II – campaigns to support a politico-strategic narrative.

<p>Världen är i ständig förändring, så även de krig och konflikter som utkämpas. Aktörerna utgörs inte längre enbart av nationer utan innefattas även ickestatliga aktörer. År 2000 utsattes amerikanska fartyget USS Cole för en asymmetrisk attack, där en ickestatlig aktör, genom asymmetrisk krigföring, åsamkade stor skada med relativt ringa medel. Denna typ av krigföring och hot är någonting relativt nytt inom den marina arenan. Uppsatsen syftar till att undersöka om ubåt typ Gotland är en potent plattform att nyttja vid en internationell insats med asymmetrisk hotbild. Uppsatsen bygger på att ubåt typ Gotlands förmågor jämförs med krav på förmågor, för att möta asymmetriska hot i en marin miljö. Krav på förmågor och Gotlands förmågor kategoriseras enligt variabler som utgörs av de sex grundläggande förmågorna. Genom analys och diskussion erhålls ett resultat för vardera variabel. Materialet som används är, för Gotlands del, officiell information om teknisk utrustning och prestanda, utgivet av tillverkandeföretag. Resultatet pekar på att ubåt typ Gotland som autonom enhet ej möter de krav som ställs, avseende verkan. Bestyckningen är inte lämplig att nyttja mot asymmetriska hot, med hänsyn till aspekter om insatsregler och proportionalitetsprincipen. Förutsatt att Gotland opererar i undervattensläge är dess förmåga till skydd och rörlighet god. Ubåt typ Gotland genom dess, för ubåtar, unika förmåga till dold spaning är det en värdefull resurs som kan nyttjas vid internationella insatser med asymmetriska hot.</p> / <p>The world is in constant transformation, so even wars and conflicts being waged. Actors of war, nowadays, not only consist of nations, but also involve non-governmental actors. In the year 2000, the American warship USS Cole was exposed to an asymmetric attack, whereby a non-governmental actor caused large damage using relatively modest resources. This type of warfare and threats are, so far, relatively new and uncommon within the marine environment. The aim of this essay is to investigate whether the Gotland class submarine is a potent platform to be used within an international operation consisting of asymmetric threats. The essay is based upon a comparison between the abilities of the Gotland class submarine and abilities required to deal with asymmetric threats in a marine environment. The abilities required and the abilities inherent of the Gotland class submarine are categorized according to a set of variables, based upon the six fundamental abilities. Through analysis and discussion, results will be obtained for each variable. The material, used for description of the Gotland class submarine, is public information of technical equipment and its performance, published by the manufacturing companies. The results indicate that the Gotland class submarine, seen as an autonomous entity, do not meet the requirements, regarding the ability of effect. The armament is not suitable for use against asymmetric threats, taking rules of engagement and the principle of proportionality into consideration. Predicting that the Gotland class submarine operates submerged, their ability of protection and movement is satisfying. The Gotland class submarine, because of its unique ability to accomplish reconnaissance operations submerged, is a valuable resource to use in international operations consisting of asymmetric threats.</p>

Världen är i ständig förändring, så även de krig och konflikter som utkämpas. Aktörerna utgörs inte längre enbart av nationer utan innefattas även ickestatliga aktörer. År 2000 utsattes amerikanska fartyget USS Cole för en asymmetrisk attack, där en ickestatlig aktör, genom asymmetrisk krigföring, åsamkade stor skada med relativt ringa medel. Denna typ av krigföring och hot är någonting relativt nytt inom den marina arenan. Uppsatsen syftar till att undersöka om ubåt typ Gotland är en potent plattform att nyttja vid en internationell insats med asymmetrisk hotbild. Uppsatsen bygger på att ubåt typ Gotlands förmågor jämförs med krav på förmågor, för att möta asymmetriska hot i en marin miljö. Krav på förmågor och Gotlands förmågor kategoriseras enligt variabler som utgörs av de sex grundläggande förmågorna. Genom analys och diskussion erhålls ett resultat för vardera variabel. Materialet som används är, för Gotlands del, officiell information om teknisk utrustning och prestanda, utgivet av tillverkandeföretag. Resultatet pekar på att ubåt typ Gotland som autonom enhet ej möter de krav som ställs, avseende verkan. Bestyckningen är inte lämplig att nyttja mot asymmetriska hot, med hänsyn till aspekter om insatsregler och proportionalitetsprincipen. Förutsatt att Gotland opererar i undervattensläge är dess förmåga till skydd och rörlighet god. Ubåt typ Gotland genom dess, för ubåtar, unika förmåga till dold spaning är det en värdefull resurs som kan nyttjas vid internationella insatser med asymmetriska hot. / The world is in constant transformation, so even wars and conflicts being waged. Actors of war, nowadays, not only consist of nations, but also involve non-governmental actors. In the year 2000, the American warship USS Cole was exposed to an asymmetric attack, whereby a non-governmental actor caused large damage using relatively modest resources. This type of warfare and threats are, so far, relatively new and uncommon within the marine environment. The aim of this essay is to investigate whether the Gotland class submarine is a potent platform to be used within an international operation consisting of asymmetric threats. The essay is based upon a comparison between the abilities of the Gotland class submarine and abilities required to deal with asymmetric threats in a marine environment. The abilities required and the abilities inherent of the Gotland class submarine are categorized according to a set of variables, based upon the six fundamental abilities. Through analysis and discussion, results will be obtained for each variable. The material, used for description of the Gotland class submarine, is public information of technical equipment and its performance, published by the manufacturing companies. The results indicate that the Gotland class submarine, seen as an autonomous entity, do not meet the requirements, regarding the ability of effect. The armament is not suitable for use against asymmetric threats, taking rules of engagement and the principle of proportionality into consideration. Predicting that the Gotland class submarine operates submerged, their ability of protection and movement is satisfying. The Gotland class submarine, because of its unique ability to accomplish reconnaissance operations submerged, is a valuable resource to use in international operations consisting of asymmetric threats.

Med fokus på Sveriges insats i Afghanistan som är en asymmetrisk konflikt där konventionella stridskrafter möter en motståndare som består av talibaner och kriminella med medel och metoder som skiljer sig från en reguljär motståndare. Problemet som kan uppstå är att motståndaren gömmer sig bland civila och förmågan till precisionsbekämpning av mål samt informationsinhämtning för att identifiera motståndare från civila blir viktigt. Syftet med uppsatsen är att se hur funktionen nyttjas i Sverige av erfarna truppförare och trupputbildare som har stor erfarenhet av prickskyttefunktionen för att sedan jämföra med insatsen i Afghanistan, FS19, och försöka se möjligheter till utveckling av funktionen vid internationell insats. Metoden kommer vara en jämförande fallstudie av prickskyttefunktionen i Sverige och Afghanistan. Med inriktning mot fyra ämnesområden (psykologisk effekt, risker, funktion och organisation) kommer en enkät att besvaras av chefer från FS19 och Arméns Jägarbataljon. Resultatet från studien är att prickskyttefunktionen nyttjades väldigt sällan på FS19. Den främsta orsaken till att den inte nyttjades var de ökade riskerna detta medförde samt att cheferna på FS19 föredrog att nyttja dem som skarpskyttar. Slutsatserna efter genomförd undersökning är att för att prickskytten skall nyttjas enligt definitionen måste befattning utvecklas i utlandsstyrkan och befattning måste övas, både för att öva prickskytten själv men också för att chef ska få förtroende för skytten och vilken effekt denne kan uppnå. Vidare måste förmågan till Personnel Recovery öka vilket ger cheferna större möjlighet att nyttja funktionen, förutsatt att befattning är övad och anses duglig. / The essay was written by Claes Christensson, during his sixth and final semester atKarlbergMilitaryAcademy. The essay is an exam in the final course at theNationalDefenceCollege basic officers program. Before entering the program, Christensson served fifteen months conscription in Arvidsjaur at the Army Ranger Battalion (ARB). Christensson was a sniper squad leader and is himself also a trained sniper. Today the Swedish Armed Forces (SAF) takes part in different conflicts around the world. This essay focuses on the SAF contribution to the asymmetric conflict currently taking place inAfghanistan. In today’s conflicts where insurgents cannot fight using conventional warfare, other means and methods are instead used. A problem for COIN forces is the fact that insurgents hide among the civilian populace. A sniper can however, with high precision, both destroy enemy personnel or locate and distinguish insurgents from civilians. The purpose of this essay is to determine how snipers are being used by highly experienced officers when training at the ARB. These experiences will then be compared to how snipers are being utilised in the Swedish contribution to ISAF (called FS19) at the Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) in Mazar-i-Sharif in northernAfghanistanbetween April and October 2010. The method of this essay will be a comparison between the ARB and FS19. Commanders will be subjected to a questionnaire and answer a number of questions, based upon four subjects. The subjects are psychological effect, risks, function and organisation linked to the sniper concept. The result of this essay shows that snipers were not nearly as often being used during FS19 than during exercises at ARB. The apparent reason for this was the increased risk and that commanders from FS19 preferably used them as sharpshooters. Soldiers with sniper rifles were being used to destroy enemy personnel with high precision and to determine civilians from enemy personnel. The conclusions are that if snipers are to be used in the proper fashion, the dedicated posting needs to be implemented in the SAF contribution to ISAF. Moreover, both snipers and commanders need to train applicably to get the full understanding of the effects a sniper can have and to gain confidence in the sniper as a concept. Furthermore, the Personnel Recovery ability needs to improve so that commanders can utilise the sniper concept in high risk operations.

After surveying the state-of-the-art in evaluation of alternatives in the defense acquisition process, a methodology for the evaluation of the robustness of systems-of-systems alternatives was proposed. In the methodology, robustness is defined as the integral of the alternative s regret over the likelihood-weighted plausible scenario space. Surrogate modeling techniques were used to overcome shortcomings associated with conventional regret analysis, including the discrete nature of scenario cases and static results. The new methodology, called Global Regret Analysis, was tested using an example problem based on the air campaign over Iraq in Operation Desert Storm. The results of the testing indicate that the methodology can provide a measure of the robustness of different system-of-systems alternatives against a wide range of possible scenarios. The methodology was then demonstrated on the US Air Force s persistent, precision strike mission. The demonstration showed the ability of Global Regret Analysis to overcome issues associated with using a single or other small number of scenarios to evaluate systems-of-systems alternatives. The methodology was then compared to a variety of existing methods and found to have strength for a wide range of evaluation applications. The possibility of applying Global Regret Analysis for military mission planning and opportunities for future work were also discussed.

Thesis (M.S. in Defense Analysis)--Naval Postgraduate School, Dec. 2004. / Thesis Advisor(s): Kalev I. Sepp. Includes bibliographical references (p. 93-96). Also available online.

Ce travail de recherche vise à questionner le concept d’éthique militaire. Le travail s’appuie sur une grille analytique combinant trois théories venant de trois disciplines différentes : l’éthique du care, développée en philosophie morale, la théorie des parties prenantes, en éthique des affaires, les approches néo-institutionnelles, en sciences de gestion. Cette grille est ensuite appliquée à deux terrains différents : le premier terrain concerne l’étude de batailles aux enjeux moraux particulièrement exacerbés : la bataille d’Alger, la guerre en Irak, la bataille de Srebrenica. Le deuxième terrain consiste en des entretiens qualitatifs auprès d’officiers revenant du champs de bataille : 10 officiers américains ayant vécu le conflit irakien et 7 officiers français revenant d’Afghanistan. Ces deux terrains sont complétés par une analyse des programmes de formation initiale proposés aux Etats-Unis et en France pour les officiers. Les résultats de recherche montrent que les personnels militaires mettent au centre de leur action une sollicitude envers leur camarade de régiment. C’est une véritable éthique du care, bien plus que des vertus ou les respect de grands principes de droit, qui conduit l’action des soldats et officiers, sans pour autant que ce souci d’autrui s’applique à l’ensemble des parties prenantes au conflit. Les enseignements de ce travail peuvent permettre de futures recherches dans la formation des soldats et officiers, ainsi que dans les travaux sur les valeurs, l’éthique ou les cultures organisationnelles. L’originalité de la thèse tient également à l’application de l’éthique du care et de la théorie des parties prenantes aux organisations militaires. / This research questions the idea of military ethics. Our work uses an analytical framework combining three different disciplines: Ethics of care, developed in moral philosophy, Stakeholder theory, from business ethics, New institutionalism theory, from management science. This framework is then applied on two different research fields: the first one deals with the study of battles where ethical stakes were particularly high: the battle of Alger, the Iraqi war, the Srebrenica battle.The second one is qualitative interviews with officers coming back from the battlefield: 10 US officers from the Iraqi conflict and 7 French militaries from Afghanistan. These two research fields are completed by an analysis of initial trainings made in France and in the US for officers. Research results shows military men act upon a feeling of care, particularly strong towards their regimental comrade. This is a true ethics of care, more than virtues or an attachment to great principles that drives soldiers and officers’ action, even if this care to the other needs does not apply to all stakeholders, only to people from the same unit. Lessons of this work can lead to future researches not only for soldiers and officers trainings, but also in values, ethics and corporate culture.The research originality is also in the implementation of ethics of care and stakeholder theory upon military organisations.

Asymmetric Conflicts from 1989 - 2001 in quantitative analysis Abstract Following paper discuses two significant concepts in the area of asymmetric warfare. Both are dealing with the phenomenon of weak actors winning in armed conflicts. Ivan Arreguín-Toft is discussing the role of strategic asymmetry and concludes that the strategy actors choose is directly influencing the result of the conflict. Andrew Mack is dealing with the interest asymmetry, saying that strong actors tend to lose because their interest to win is usually weaker than that of their small opponents. In the same time strong actors are politically more vulnerable based on the level of democracy. Both theories are tested by quantitative analysis of all asymmetric conflicts that took place between 1989 and 2000. Values related to strategies, results, strength of the actors, interest and level of democracy are assigned to all conflicts based on information provided in conflict and other databases.

This dissertation presents the U.S. Army Asymmetric Warfare Group (AWG) as an example of that service implementing successful change in wartime. It argues that creating the AWG required senior leaders to adopt a vision differing from the Army’s self-conceptualization, change bureaucratic processes to permit that vision to produce an actual military unit, and then place the new unit in the hands of uniquely qualified leaders able to build and sustain it. In the process, the dissertation will consider forces that influence change within the Army, arguing that the two most significant are its self-conceptualization and institutional bureaucracy. Only determined senior leaders can overcome these barriers, and then only by deep personal engagement. Such engagement extends to manipulating the bureaucracy by placing like-minded subordinates in positions where they can sustain the tenets of change long after the visionaries retire. The dissertation also posits effective leadership as critical to building and sustaining organizations able to consistently meet their founders’ vision. To effectively tell the story, the dissertation explores three major subject areas that provide historical context. The first is the Army’s institutional history from the early 1950s through 2001. This period begins with the Army seeking to validate its place in America’s national security strategy and ends with the Army trying to chart a path into the post-Cold War future. That section includes the major bureaucratic changes brought about by Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara in the early 1960s as these changes created processes the service still uses. It also addresses the Army’s post-Vietnam War focus on re-establishing itself as a technologically sophisticated force optimized to defeat similar opponents. This dissertation also looks at several episodes further in the past. Prior to World War I, the Army’s history is largely one of asymmetric warfare. The dissertation thus examines several campaigns that offered lessons for subsequent wars. Some lessons the Army took to heart, others it ignored. Finally, the dissertation chronicles the AWG’s creation in 2006. The AWG was a direct outgrowth of the failures and frustrations that the Army experienced in Afghanistan and Iraq. The dissertation examines these campaigns and identifies the specific problems that led senior Army leaders to create the AWG. It also chronicles the organizations growth and re-assignment from the Army staff to a fully-fledged organization subordinate to the U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command in 2011. This reassignment placed a now mature AWG in the Army’s standard force structure, a place it held until its 2021 deactivation. This deactivation did not result not from the unit’s failure to adapt to a post-insurgency Army focusing on technical modernization. Rather, it resulted from the Army’s inability to realize that while the AWG originated as a response to counterinsurgency, it provided a capability to support the Army during a period of great strategic and institutional uncertainty. / History

Approved for public release; distribution in unlimited. / Since World War II, the Philippines has confronted threats from communist insurgents, Muslim secessionists, and a few other agitators. Recently, however, a new threat has emerged-- this time coming from a terrorist organization known as the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG). Although the ASG is a relatively small group, it has wrought great injury to the Philippine image as of late. Common among the groups presenting a threat to internal security are that their strategies and tactics tend to be unconventional and asymmetric. This thesis seeks to determine how special operations can improve the AFP's capability to address internal security threats. The study begins by examining the security environments in which the AFP currently operates, and then proceeds to study emerging security environments in which it will likely operate. The current special operations capability of the AFP is explored and assessed, while inquiring whether it needs enhancing. Case studies of past AFP special operations against groups which posed major internal threats are analyzed to determine whether or not the doctrine and strategy of the AFP was correct, especially regarding its use of Special Operations Forces (SOF). Furthermore, this study considers the United States (U.S.) model for special operations, namely the U.S. Special Operations Forces, in proposing a special operations strategy for the AFP that is feasible, suitable, and sustainable. It is suggested that such an examination will produce a strategy that is relevant, adaptable, and responsive to dealing with the internal security environments likely to be encountered by the Philippine government. / Major, Philippine Army