L’apprentissage d’une langue étrangère nécessite une quantité considérable de temps et d’efforts. Les apprenants doivent faire face à de nombreux défis dans cet apprentissage, dont le traitement des sons qui n'existent pas dans leur langue maternelle. La différence entre les propriétés de la langue maternelle et de la langue étrangère entraîne des distorsions dans la perception et un accent dans la production des sons non-natifs. De plus, ces difficultés persistent à tous les niveaux de traitement, car les problèmes de perception et de production d’un son influencent le traitement des mots contenant ces sons. Heureusement, la capacité à percevoir et à produire les sons de la L2 (langue seconde) s’améliore progressivement. Cette thèse porte sur le traitement phonologique de la L2 et son développement à travers les modalités (perception vs. production) et les niveaux de traitement (niveau prélexical vs. lexical). Dans la première partie de la thèse, nous étudions la relation entre la perception et la production en L2. Les résultats des études précédentes ont souvent été contradictoires et nous suggérons que plusieurs limitations méthodologiques aient pu y créer des confusions. Nous avons donc pris en compte ces limitations méthodologiques et nous avons développé un paradigme expérimental afin de tester la perception et la production du contraste français /u/-/y/ par des apprenants anglophones. Nous avons utilisé des tâches qui visent le traitement prélexical et lexical afin d'examiner si le lien entre les deux modalités, s’il en existe un, est maintenu à travers les niveaux de traitement. Les résultats ont montré que la perception et la production sont corrélées, mais uniquement au niveau prélexical. De plus, nous avons trouvé que le développement de la perception précède celui de la production car il faut d’abord bien percevoir un son non-natif afin de le produire correctement. Dans la deuxième partie, nous avons poursuivi l’étude du traitement phonologique à travers les niveaux de traitement en nous concentrant sur la perception du son anglais /h/ par des apprenants francophones. Nous avons d’abord examiné si les difficultés à percevoir ce son précédemment signalées au niveau prélexical posaient également problème au niveau lexical. De plus, nous avons examiné si l’asymétrie observée dans la production (les francophones omettent le /h/ plus souvent qu’il ne l’insèrent) était présente dans la perception. Les résultats ont révélé que les apprenants francophones ont du mal à percevoir des mots et des non-mots contenant le /h/. De plus, une performance asymétrique a été observée. Nous avons interprété ceci comme une indication que les représentations phonologiques des mots anglais contenant le /h/ sont imprécises chez les apprenants francophones. Dans un second temps, nous avons examiné si un entraînement phonétique pouvait améliorer la perception du /h/ non seulement au niveau prélexical, mais également au niveau lexical. Nous avons démontré que l’entraînement phonétique améliorait la perception du /h/ dans les deux niveaux de traitement. De plus, cet effet positif a été maintenu quatre mois après l’entraînement. Enfin, nous avons examiné si les asymétries dans la perception du /h/ au niveau lexical pouvaient s'expliquer par des asymétries au niveau prélexical. Un tel lien n’a cependant pas été observé dans les résultats. Dans l’ensemble, cette thèse démontre que les mécanismes sous-jacents au traitement de la parole en L2 sont complexes et dynamiques, et influencent ainsi la perception et la production tant à travers les modalités qu’à travers les niveaux de traitement. Enfin, des pistes pour les recherches futures, qui permettraient d’explorer davantage les liens entre ces éléments du traitement phonologique, sont proposées. Cela mènerait à une compréhension plus approfondie des processus impliqués dans l’acquisition de la L2. / Learning a foreign language (L2) is a difficult task, requiring considerable amounts of time and effort. One of the challenges learners must face is the processing of sounds that do not exist or are not used contrastively in their native language. The mismatch between the properties of the native language and the foreign one leads to distortions in the perception of non-native sounds and to foreign accent in their production. Moreover, these difficulties persist across levels of processing as problems in prelexical L2 sound perception and production influence the processing of words containing these sounds. Fortunately, with growing proficiency the abilities to perceive and produce L2 sounds gradually improve, although they might never attain native-like levels. This thesis focuses on L2 phonological processing and its development across modalities (perception vs. production) and across levels of processing (prelexical vs. lexical). In the first part of the thesis, we investigate the relationship between perception and production in L2. Previous literature has provided contradictory evidence as to whether perception and production develop in parallel. We hypothesized that several methodological limitations could have brought confounds in some of these previous studies. We therefore designed an experiment that addressed these methodological issues and tested proficient English learners of French on their perception and production of the French contrast /u/-/y/ that does not exist in English. We included tasks that tap into both prelexical and lexical levels of processing in order to examine whether the link between the two modalities, if any, holds across levels of processing. Results showed that perception and production were correlated, but only when tested with tasks that tap into the same level of processing. We next explored if the developments in one modality precede developments in the other and found that good perception is indeed a prerequisite for good production. In the second part of the thesis, we continue to investigate the phonological processing of L2 across levels by focusing on the perception of the English sound /h/ by intermediate to proficient French learners of English. We first studied if the poor perception of this sound previously reported at the prelexical level also causes problems at the lexical level. We also looked at whether asymmetries found in production (i.e. more deletions than insertions) are reflected in perception. The results revealed that French learners of English have difficulty in perceiving /h/-initial words and non-words at the lexical level. Moreover, an asymmetry was indeed observed in their performance, which was interpreted as an indication that French learners of English have imprecise phonological representations of /h/-initial but not of vowel-initial words. Second, we carried out a training study to test if phonetic training could improve the perception of /h/ not only at the prelexical, but at the lexical level as well. We found that the High Phonetic Variability training did improve the perception of /h/ both at the prelexical and lexical levels, and that this positive effect was retained four months after training. Finally, we examined if asymmetries in the perception of /h/ at the lexical level could be explained by asymmetries at the prelexical level. The results revealed no such relationship. Overall, this thesis demonstrates the complex and dynamic nature of the mechanisms underlying non-native speech processing and its development during learning both across modalities and across levels of processing. We discuss how future research could further explore the links between these elements of the phonological processing apparatus to get a better understanding of L2 acquisition.

<p>This dissertation explains why behavioral genetic research can be better informed by using characteristics in the human iris as biomarkers for personality, and is divided into five parts. Part I gives an introduction to the classical twin method and an overview of the findings that have led most developmental researchers to recognize that the normal variation of personality depends on a complex interplay between genetic and environmental factors. Part II highlights empirical findings that during the last twenty years have gradually moved genetic and environmental theory and research to evolve toward one another, and also presents the theory of genetics and experience that currently is used to explain how the interplay between genes and the environment works. Part III explains why, from a developmental perspective, it is of interest to identify candidate genes for personality, and gives a brief overview of genes that have been associated with personality. Problems associated with genetic research on the molecular level and how these apply to personality are also highlighted. Part IV examines molecular research on the iris and the brain, which suggests that genes expressed in the iris could be associated with personality, and explains how the use of iris characteristics can increase power to test candidate genes for personality by taking advantage of the self-organizing properties of the nervous system. The empirical foundation for the questions posed in this dissertation and also the empirical results are presented here. Part V discusses the associations found between iris characteristics and personality, and exemplifies how iris characteristics can be used within the theoretical frameworks presented in parts I, II, III and IV. In other words, Part V explains how iris characteristics – in addition to identify as well as test candidate genes for personality – can be used to investigate how people’s experiences in themselves are influenced by genetic factors.</p>

Thèse numérisée par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal

This dissertation explains why behavioral genetic research can be better informed by using characteristics in the human iris as biomarkers for personality, and is divided into five parts. Part I gives an introduction to the classical twin method and an overview of the findings that have led most developmental researchers to recognize that the normal variation of personality depends on a complex interplay between genetic and environmental factors. Part II highlights empirical findings that during the last twenty years have gradually moved genetic and environmental theory and research to evolve toward one another, and also presents the theory of genetics and experience that currently is used to explain how the interplay between genes and the environment works. Part III explains why, from a developmental perspective, it is of interest to identify candidate genes for personality, and gives a brief overview of genes that have been associated with personality. Problems associated with genetic research on the molecular level and how these apply to personality are also highlighted. Part IV examines molecular research on the iris and the brain, which suggests that genes expressed in the iris could be associated with personality, and explains how the use of iris characteristics can increase power to test candidate genes for personality by taking advantage of the self-organizing properties of the nervous system. The empirical foundation for the questions posed in this dissertation and also the empirical results are presented here. Part V discusses the associations found between iris characteristics and personality, and exemplifies how iris characteristics can be used within the theoretical frameworks presented in parts I, II, III and IV. In other words, Part V explains how iris characteristics – in addition to identify as well as test candidate genes for personality – can be used to investigate how people’s experiences in themselves are influenced by genetic factors.

Σκοπός της διατριβής είναι να εξετάσει θέματα που άπτονται της Οικονομικής και Νομισματικής Ένωσης (ΟΝΕ). Στο πρώτο κεφάλαιο, αρχικά, παρουσιάζουμε την θεωρητική και εμπειρική βιβλιογραφία που έχει αναπτυχθεί πάνω στο θέμα της ανεξαρτησίας των Κεντρικών Τραπεζών και ποιοι παράγοντες επηρεάζουν τη σχέση της με το πραγματικό προϊόν, την απασχόληση και τον πληθωρισμό και γίνεται αναφορά των επιχειρημάτων που απορρέουν μέσα από αυτές. Στο δεύτερο κεφάλαιο, αρχικά επιχειρούμε να μελετήσουμε τις στρατηγικές αλληλεξαρτήσεις μεταξύ των φορέων άσκησης νομισματικής και δημοσιονομικής πολιτικής μέσα σε μια νομισματική ένωση κάτω από διαφορετικά θεσμικά καθεστώτα, και στη συνέχεια εξετάζουμε το ρόλο των ασυμμετριών στις διαταραχές καθώς η νομισματική πολιτική μέσα σε μια νομισματική ένωση έχει σταθεροποιητικές επιδράσεις μόνο σε αθροιστικές μεταβλητές. Το τρίτο κεφάλαιο εστιάζεται στην διευρυμένη Ευρωπαϊκή Ένωση (ΕΕ) και ειδικότερα επιχειρούμε να μελετήσουμε το βαθμό ετερογένειας ανάμεσα στις οικονομίες των 27 χωρών-μελών. Επίσης εξετάζουμε τον βαθμό συγχρονισμού των οικονομικών τους κύκλων και τη συμμετρία των διαταραχών. Ο βαθμός ετερογένειας μετριέται με βάση συντελεστές Theil, ενώ χρησιμοποιούμε στοιχεία τόσο για το συνολικό χρονικό διάστημα 1995.1-2005.4 όσο και για δύο επιμέρους περιόδους, 1995.1-2000.4 και 2000.1-2005.4 (προ και μετά την υιοθέτηση του ενιαίου νομίσματος). Για τη μέτρηση του βαθμού συμμετρίας των μακροοικονομικών διαταραχών μεταξύ των χωρών-μελών στην ΕΕ-27 χρησιμοποιούμε μεθοδολογία SVAR διαχωρίζοντας τις διαταραχές σε διαταραχές ζήτησης και διαταραχές προσφοράς.Στο τέταρτο κεφάλαιο εξετάζουμε τη σχέση μεταξύ συμμετρίας των μακροοικονομικών διαταραχών και ενοποίησης του εμπορίου, είτε όταν αυτή αφορά το συνολικό εμπόριο είτε όταν αφορά το ενδοκλαδικό εμπόριο χρησιμοποιώντας στοιχεία για την περίοδο 1995q1-2005q4. Η ένταση του συνολικού εμπορίου μεταξύ δύο χωρών μετριέται ως ο λόγος του αθροίσματος των διμερών εξαγωγών και εισαγωγών προς το άθροισμα των συνολικών εισαγωγών και εξαγωγών των εν λόγω χωρών, ενώ για το ενδοκλαδικό εμπόριο υπολογίζουμε δείκτες Grubel-Lloyd. / The purpose of the thesis is to examine issues related to European Monetary Union (EMU). Firstly, in Chapter one we present the analytical and empirical literature which has been developed on Central Bank Independence issue and the factors that affect its relationship with real output, employment and inflation. In Chapter two, we study the structural interdependencies between the monetary and fiscal authorities in a monetary union under different regimes, and also we examine the role of shock asymmetries as monetary policy in a monetary union has stabilized effects only on aggregated variables. The third Chapter focuses on the enlarged European Union (E.U.) and specifically we study the degree of heterogeneity among the 27 member-countries. Also, we examine the degree of business cycle synchronization and the shock symmetry. The degree of heterogeneity is measured by Theil coefficients, and we use data not only for the period 1995.1-2005.4 but also for the two sub-periods 1995.1-2000.4 και 2000.1-2005.4 (pre and post the circulation of single currency). We use the SVAR methodology in order to measure the degree of macroeconomic shocks among the EU-27 member-states by separating shocks in demand and supply shocks. In Chapter four we examine the relationship between shock symmetry and trade integration, either it is related to total trade either to intra-industry trade by using data for the period 1995q1-2005q4. The trade intensity between two countries is measured as the ratio of the sum of imports and exports to the sum of total exports and imports of two countries, while we take the Grubel-Lloyd indexes to measure the intra-industry trade.

Submitted by Erika Demachki (erikademachki@gmail.com) on 2018-06-05T17:34:34Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Tese - Renata Ramos da Silva Carvalho - 2018.pdf: 4606190 bytes, checksum: be46a59437a9a4c7611096ff9e27e4fa (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Luciana Ferreira (lucgeral@gmail.com) on 2018-06-06T11:03:34Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 Tese - Renata Ramos da Silva Carvalho - 2018.pdf: 4606190 bytes, checksum: be46a59437a9a4c7611096ff9e27e4fa (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-06-06T11:03:34Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Tese - Renata Ramos da Silva Carvalho - 2018.pdf: 4606190 bytes, checksum: be46a59437a9a4c7611096ff9e27e4fa (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-04-10 / Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Goiás - FAPEG / The main goal of this study is to investigate and to present what would be the necessary enlargement of undergraduate and strictu sensu graduate enrollments, and of the expansion funds, so that the SUs, by the state of the federation, could contribute to the success of the NEP goals (2014-2024) for higher education. Furthermore, this study also aims to evaluate the first two years of the implementation of the targets 12, 13 and 14, and to carry out the projection of its challenges for the country by the year 2024; to comprehend how the SUs are inserted in the context of higher education in Brazil; to identify the main institutional and academic characteristics and the main asymmetries in the set of Brazilian State Universities; to detect the main existing asymmetries in the group of Brazilian SUs; to analyze the content of the goals for higher education of the State Education Plans (SEPs), to investigate the average cost and expense per student of the SUs; to estimate what would be the necessary increase of resources, as a percentage of national and state GDP, so that the states, through their SUs, can contribute to the achievement of these goals. From the methodological point of view, the first step of this research has shown to be an exploratory study which later developed into a descriptive, critical interpretative study that has been subsidized by documental and bibliographic research, collection and analysis of statistical data for the accomplishment of projection estimation presented here. This study is composed of four main categories of analysis: the expansion of Brazilian higher education, the education plans (national and state), the institutional and academic profile of the UEs, and, finally, the funding of the SUs. These categories are theoretically supported by the studies of Aguiar (2010), Amaral e Pinto (2005), Amaral (2016), Dourado (2010, 2011, 2016, 2017), Fialho (2011, 2012), Martins (2000), Oliveira and Dourado (2016), Oliveira (2011), Ranieri (2000), Sguissardi (2000, 2014), among others. The data collected by this study reveal that the challenges of expansion and funding are audacious for the states to contribute to the PNE (2014-2024) goals for higher education. Therefore, it is defended as a thesis that although the SUs integrate the same administrative category as "state public universities", they are constituted by a set of HEIs marked by institutional asymmetries in several aspects: as to its architecture of spatial organization; to the characteristics of offer of their undergraduate enrollments, as to the qualification of its academic staff; as regarding the offer and performance in the stricto sensu post-graduate course ; its statutory regulations; in terms of their funding; and regarding its challenges of expansion towards the goals of the PNE (2014-2024) for higher education. This study understands that the asymmetries identified in the set of the SUs are mainly due to the fact that they have very different contexts regarding their creation, structuring, and functioning, and because they are subordinated to different maintainers (states of the federation) and to distinct academic, institutional regulations and financial capacity. Moreover, it is argued that the challenges of the SUs in front of the PNE (2014-2024) goals for higher education explicit the present contradictions in terms of the higher education offer promoted by these institutions, in terms of its funding, and in terms of the regional inequalities of this group of HEIs. These contradictions and the imperative challenges of enrollment expansion and the increase in the funding, necessary for the SUs to contribute to the success of these goals, allows us to affirm that there are objective limits which compromise the effective participation of the states in reaching these goals for higher education in brazil, through their SUs. Moreover, it is possible to affirm that the effectiveness of the content proposed by the PNE strategy 12.18 (2014-2024) is of fundamental importance for the states of the federation to contribute to the achievement of these goals for higher education, through their SUs. / Este estudo possui como principal objetivo investigar e apresentar qual seria a expansão necessária de matrículas de graduação e pós-graduação stricto sensu e a ampliação no financiamento para que as UEs, por estado da federação, possam contribuir com o êxito das metas do PNE (2014-2024) para a educação superior. Para além deste, objetiva-se também: avaliar os dois primeiros anos de vigência das metas 12, 13 e 14 e realizar a projeção de seus desafios para o país e até o ano de 2024; compreender como as UEs estão inseridas no contexto da educação superior do país; identificar as principais características institucionais e acadêmicas e as principais assimetrias no conjunto das UEs brasileiras; analisar o conteúdo das metas para a educação superior dos Planos Estaduais de Educação (PEEs); apurar o custo e o gasto médio do aluno das UEs por estado da federação; estimar qual seria a ampliação necessária de recursos, como percentual do PIB nacional e estadual, para que os estados, por meio de suas UEs, contribuíssem para o alcance dessas metas. Do ponto de vista metodológico, a primeira etapa desta pesquisa mostrou-se como um estudo exploratório, que depois evoluiu para um estudo descritivo de caráter crítico e interpretativo, sendo subsidiado por pesquisa documental, bibliográfica, levantamento e tratamento de dados estatísticos para a realização dos cálculos das projeções apresentadas. Este estudo é composto por quatro principais categorias de análise: a expansão da educação superior no Brasil, os planos de educação (o nacional e os estaduais), o perfil institucional e acadêmico das UEs e, por fim, o financiamento das UEs. Essas categorias apoiam-se teoricamente nos estudos de Aguiar (2010), Amaral e Pinto (2005), Amaral (2016), Dourado (2010, 2011, 2016, 2017), Fialho (2011, 2012), Martins (2000), Oliveira e Dourado (2016), Oliveira (2011), Ranieri (2000), Sguissardi (2000, 2014), entre outros. Os dados levantados por este estudo revelam que são audaciosos os desafios de expansão e financiamento para que os estados possam contribuir com as metas do PNE (2014-2024) para a educação superior. Portanto, defende-se como tese que, embora as UEs integrem a mesma categoria administrativa sendo “universidades públicas estaduais”, elas se constituem por um conjunto de IES marcado por assimetrias institucionais em diversos aspectos: quanto à sua arquitetura de organização espacial; quanto às características de oferta das suas matrículas de graduação; quanto à titulação de seu corpo docente; quanto à oferta e atuação na pós-graduação stricto sensu; quanto às suas regulamentações normativas; quanto ao seu financiamento; quanto aos seus desafios de expansão perante as metas do PNE (2014-2024) para a educação superior. Este estudo compreende que essas assimetrias idenficadas no conjunto das UEs são decorrentes, principalmente, do fato de elas possuírem contextos muito distintos quanto à sua criação, estruturação e funcionamento e por estarem subordinadas a mantenedores (estados da federação) e regulamentações acadêmicas, institucionais e capacidade financeira distintos. Defende-se ainda que os desafios das UEs perante as metas do PNE (2014-2024) para a educação superior explicitam as contradições presentes quanto à oferta de educação superior promovida por essas instituições, quanto ao seu financiamento e quanto às desigualdades regionais desse conjunto de IES. Essas contradições e os imperativos desafios de expansão de matrículas e ampliação no financiamento necessário para que as UEs possam contribuir com o êxito dessas metas permitem-nos afirmar que existem limites de caráter objetivo que comprometem a efetiva participação dos estados, por meio de suas UEs, no alcance dessas metas para a educação superior no Brasil. É possível afirmar ainda que a efetivação do conteúdo proposto pela estratégia 12.18 do PNE (2014-2024) é de fundamental importância para que os estados da federação, por meio de suas UEs, contribuam para o alcance dessas metas.

The purpose of this thesis is to present a postcolonial critique that may empower non-Western music industries globally. As per Nigerian music executive Tunde Ogundipe’s reasoning, its analysis isn’t prescriptive – it presents a critical analysis of IFPI’s organisation and ideology, which non-Western stakeholders may use as free strategic business intelligence if/as they please. Using a sociological methodology, IFPI’s organisational structure and operations are analysed with reference to three postcolonial axes: ideology, history and political geography. The analysis uncovers colonial path dependencies and present-day policies that reproduce the ‘civilising mission’. / Syftet med detta examensarbete är att presentera en postkolonial kritik som kan stärka icke-västerländska musikindustrier globalt. Enligt den nigerianska musikföretagsledaren Tunde Ogundipes resonemang är analysen inte föreskriftsmässig – den presenterar en kritisk analys av IFPIs organisation och ideologi, vilken icke-västerländska intressenter kan använda som gratis strategisk affärsintelligens om/som de vill. Med hjälp av en sociologisk metodik analyseras IFPI:s organisationsstruktur och verksamhet med hänvisning till tre postkoloniala axlar: ideologi, historia och politisk geografi. Analysen påvisar kolonialt stigberoende och samtida policys som reproducerar den “civiliserande missionen”.

It has been 15 years since the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples recognized the Free, Prior and Informed consent Principle, yet it has not been able to function to its fullest potential. This Thesis aims to carry out a Qualitative Comparative Analysis of the following three countries of Australia, Canada, and the United States. With the hypothesis, that the underlying factors behind this failure can be attributed to Settler-Colonialism and Global Capitalism. To carry out this study Theoretical Frameworks based on Settler-Colonial studies and a critique of the Stakeholder theory named Critical Stakeholder Analysis (CSA) will be employed. Using the existing body of research in this area of inquiry as a point of departure, this thesis attributes the failure to implement the Free, Prior, and Informed Consent principle to its fullest potential on asymmetrical power dynamics, settler-colonial structures, and profitability.

This dissertation collects three essays which deal with financial development in emerging markets. Owing to the appliance of different econometric methods on several data sets, insights in the behavior of and the impacts from financial markets are generated. Usually, the financial markets in emerging countries are characterized by the presence of credit constraints. In the first chapter it is shown that the financial development in 19th century Germany generally affected the economy in a positive way. Additionally, when different economic sectors are under investigation, it is revealed that the reaction due to financial development is not homogeneously across the sectors. A structural vector autoregression (VAR) framework is applied to a new annual data set from 1870 to 1912 that was initially compiled by Walther Hoffmann (1965). With respect to the literature, the most important difference of this analysis is the focus on different sectors in the economy and the interpretation of the results in the context of a two-sector growth model. It is revealed that all sectors were affected significantly by shocks from the banking system. Interestingly, this link is the strongest in sectors with small or non-tradable-goods-producing firms, such as construction, services, transportation and agriculture. In this regard, the growth patterns in 19th century Germany are reminiscent to those in today's emerging markets. The second chapter deals with the integration of the stock markets of mainland China with those of the United States and Hong Kong. Market integration and the resulting welfare gains as risk sharing, increasing investment and growth benefits has become a central topic in international finance research. This chapter investigates stock market integration after stock market liberalization which is assessed by spillover effects from Hong Kong and the United States to Chinese stock market indices. Dividing the sample in pre- and post-liberalization phases, causality in variance procedure is applied using four mainland China stock market indices, two indices of the stock exchange in Hong Kong and the Dow Jones Industrials index in the main part. Evidence of global and regional integration is found, but no evidence for increasing integration after the partial opening of the Chinese stock markets, neither with Hong Kong nor with the United States. Based on the idea presented in the first chapter, the third chapter examines one of today's emerging markets. As China is experiencing remarkable economic growth in the recent decades, it is analyzed if and to what extent the ongoing deregulations in the financial system contribute to this development. Structural VARs for gross domestic product as well as for sectoral output data in conjunction with two different bank lending variables are applied. It is indicated that China is positive affected by financial development and that all sectors benefit from domestic bank lending enlargements but to different degrees. Especially in the sectors where mainly state-owned enterprises are represented - such as construction, trade and transportation - shocks in bank lending have a strong positive influence while sectors where private enterprises are prevalent, seem to be more credit constrained.

The conduct of effective economic policy faces a multiplicity of macroeconomic challenges, which requires a wide scope of theoretical and empirical analyses. With a focus on the European Union, this doctoral dissertation consists of two parts which make empirical and methodological contributions to the literature on forecasting real economic activity and on the analysis of business cycles in a boom-bust framework in the light of the EMU enlargement. In the first part, we tackle the problem of publication lags and analyse the role of the information flow in computing short-term forecasts up to one quarter ahead for the euro area GDP and its main components. A huge dataset of monthly indicators is used to estimate simple bridge equations. The individual forecasts are then pooled, using different weighting schemes. To take into consideration the release calendar of each indicator, six forecasts are compiled successively during the quarter. We find that the sequencing of information determines the weight allocated to each block of indicators, especially when the first month of hard data becomes available. This conclusion extends the findings of the recent literature. Moreover, when combining forecasts, two weighting schemes are found to outperform the equal weighting scheme in almost all cases. In the second part, we focus on the potential accession of the new EU Member States in Central and Eastern Europe to the euro area. In contrast to the discussion of Optimum Currency Areas, we follow a non-standard approach for the discussion on abandonment of national currencies the boom-bust theory. We analyse whether evidence for boom-bust cycles is given and draw conclusions whether these countries should join the EMU in the near future. Using a broad range of data sets and empirical methods we document credit market imperfections, comprising asymmetric financing opportunities across sectors, excess foreign currency liabilities and contract enforceability problems both at macro and micro level. Furthermore, we depart from the standard analysis of comovements of business cycles among countries and rather consider long-run and short-run comovements across sectors. While the results differ across countries, we find evidence for credit market imperfections in Central and Eastern Europe and different sectoral reactions to shocks. This gives favour for the assessment of the potential euro accession using this supplementary, non-standard approach.