This paper analyzes the effect of political and economic factors on the risk of regime change in countries between 1975 and 2010, using survival analysis with time-dependent covariates. The findings show that negative economic growth increases the risk of regime change in the following year, and that a higher level of GDP per Capita, as well as international trade, has an inhibiting effect on the risk of regime change in democracies. The results also show that countries with young regimes are more likely to experience a regime change, and that countries with a long tradition of democratic governance suffer virtually no risk of experiencing a regime failure. These findings lend heavy support to the democratic consolidation theory, while giving mixed support to other theories of economic and political causes of regime change. The more generalized approach to regime change used in this paper provides a stepping stone for opening up a greater understanding of the mechanisms which cause regime change in all types of governments, and regardless of the direction of the change in relation to democracy.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Wisconsin--Madison, 1971. / Typescript. Vita. eContent provider-neutral record in process. Description based on print version record. Includes bibliographical references.

Depuis le 20 janvier 2002, la République du Congo s'est dotée d'une nouvelle Constitution. Ce quatrième texte fondamental depuis l'avènement de la démocratie en 1990 avait un double objectif : rompre avec le modèle constitutionnel français consacré par la Constitution de mars 1992 qui instaurait un régime semi-présidentiel et restaurer l'autorité de l'Etat affaiblie par les années de guerre civile. C’est donc finalement un régime de type présidentiel qui est mis en place. À cet égard, l'article 114 de la Constitution de 2002 déclare : « le Président de la République ne peut dissoudre l'Assemblée nationale. L’Assemblée nationale ne peut démettre le Président de la République ». Mais la comparaison avec le régime américain s'arrête là. Car le Président, au Congo, dispose d'une suprématie non conforme au principe d'équilibre des pouvoirs connu aux Etats-Unis et, surtout, n'encourt aucun risque de destitution. En définitive, le dispositif mis en place est plus proche d'une architecture des pouvoirs issue de la Constitution russe de 1993 et au présidentialisme latino-américain. Trois facteurs expliquent cette convergence : d'abord, l’objectif du texte fondamental adopté en 2002 était bien la consécration constitutionnelle de la victoire militaire de 1997. Cette réalité rapproche la Constitution congolaise de la Constitution russe adoptée à la suite de la « décommunisation » lors de la chute du Mur de Berlin. Ensuite, les constituants entendaient reproduire la culture bantoue dans le marbre juridique, en consacrant la suprématie du chef. Une telle approche est similaire à l’influence culturelle bolivar dans le présidentialisme latino-américain. Enfin, la nécessité de contenter la communauté internationale a conduit à l’adoption d’un texte fondamentalement libéral avec une pratique foncièrement autoritaire. Finalement, seule une instrumentalisation de la Communauté internationale peut expliquer le paradoxe du régime constitutionnel congolais. / Since the 20th of January 2002, the Republic of Congo has adopted a new constitution. This fourth fundamental text since the advent of democracy in 1990 has two objectives : to depart from the French constitutional model enshrined in the constitution of March 1992 which established a semi- presidential system and to restore the authority of the state that had be shaken and weakened by years of civil war. The new constitution opted for a presidential system. In this regard , Article 114 of the 2002 constitution states that " the President of the Republic may dissolve the National Assembly. The National Assembly cannot impeach the President of the Republic. " This is the only commun feature the system has with that of the United States. In the Republic of Congo, the President is not subject to the principle of checks and balances as in the case of United States and, especially, runs no risk of impeachment. In the end, the system in place is closer to the Russian architecture of powers and the Latin American presidentialism. Three factors explain this convergence : firstly, the fundamental objective of the text adopted in 2002 was indeed the constitutional enshrinement of the military victory of 1997. This reality takes the Congolese Constitution a step towards the Russian Constitution adopted after the " decommunisation " following the fall of the Berlin Wall. Then, the constituent Assembly had the intention to reproduce the Bantu culture in the legal marble, establishing the supremacy of the leader. Such an approach is similar to the bolivian cultural influence in the Latin American presidentialism. Secondly, the need to satisfy the international community led to the adoption of a fundamentally liberal text with inherent authoritarian practice. Finally, manipulation by the international community is the only plausible explanation to the paradox of the Congolese constitutional regime.

The primary focus of this study is the analysis of constitutional amendment-making processes following transitions from authoritarian regimes. Based on an extended longitudinal comparative case study of Chile and Turkey, the body of the work focuses on the experience of constitution-making during military rule and amendment-making following the transition to elected civilian governments. While both countries suffered a breakdown of democracy and ensuing new military-imposed constitutions, their amendment-making processes after the restoration of democracy were quite different. Chile developed a largely consensual approach while Turkey moved increasingly toward dissonance and confrontation. Extensive field research and personal interviews in both countries found that the procedural rigidity of amendment-making processes is insufficient to explain the extent and direction of constitutional change adopted under elected civilians after the transition from military rule (Chile in 2005, Turkey in 2010). Therefore a central feature of this study is the development of an analytical framework to explore both demand and supply side factors. This framework deconstructs the amendment making mechanism by examining such demand-side factors as shifts in the balance of power; societal forces and external actors; political, social and cultural context; characteristics of the constitution; and constitutional tradition. Supply-side factors addressed are the procedural and informal institutional elements, including the role of veto powers; informational constraints; and the content of the proposed amendments themselves. This dissertation contributes to the expanding literature on authoritarian constitutions and amendment-making processes and breaks new ground by systematically comparing the experience of Chile and Turkey, as key actors attempted to gradually amend their military-imposed constitutions. The different outcomes in these two cases, this study argues, were shaped by variations in historical context, the balance of power, the number of veto players, and different incentives for reform, i.e., the reassertion of democratic practices in Chile and a reactive response to political and constitutional crises in Turkey.

This article provides an overview of Internet shutdowns in Pakistan, which have become an increasingly common phenomenon, with 41 occurring between 2012 and 2017. It argues that to understand how shutdowns became normalized in Pakistan, it is necessary to look at the specific dynamics of how the shutdowns take place. In doing so, the concept of communicative ruptures develops to better understand intentional government shutdowns of communications. The article argues that strategic prevention of mobilization is key for short-term shutdowns, whereas long-term shutdowns can be better explained by looking at disciplinary mechanisms and denying the existence of "others". The article then discusses Internet shutdowns in the wider context of authoritarian practices before concluding with the urgent need for further research on this topic, both in Pakistan and beyond.

This thesis studies the authoritarian dominant party system in Uganda during the 2016 general election. It focuses on how subnational competition within the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) prolongs the tenure of its leader, 30-year incumbent President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni. In three districts where the NRM has been historically strong - Kyenjojo, Kayunga, and Bugiri - the thesis traces three processes to this end: the decentralisation and localisation of accountability politics away from the regime and toward expendable local politicians (H₁); the relationship between local elite rivalry and the NRM's collective mobilisation for Museveni's simultaneous re-election (H₂); and how competitive electoral pressures on NRM MPs alter the national elite bargain in the president's favour (H₃). It concludes that in strong NRM areas, the fractious divisions that characterise intra-party competition are not a by-product of its near monopolistic domination of politics, but the very basis of that dominance. This emphasis on subnational intra-party competition brings a new variable into a literature on non-democratic survival that tends to focus on more narrowly coercive and clientelist regime strategies. The thesis presents this argument in a qualitative single case study driven by an open and inductive fieldwork component throughout the 2016 election period. Its three hypotheses are built on data from interviews (with voters and elites), ethnographic observations, official data, and secondary sources. This data is used in a process-tracing design before its conclusions are fortified by a subnational comparative analysis of the election results in the three case districts.

Esta tese refere-se à problemática das transições políticas de regimes militares para democracias articulada com a cultura política. Busca-se, com isso, verificar nos contextos de Brasil e Argentina, as diferenças nas percepções dos cidadãos em termos de confiança nos militares, avaliação da situação dos seus governos, interesse por política, preferência pelo regime democrático, satisfação com a democracia, opinião sobre o voto e capital social, plasmado pela confiança interpessoal e institucional. Estas diferenças poderiam ser provenientes de dois o poder de mobilização que os indivíduos possuem em relação a um grupo. É um eguido individualmente porgentina o processo foi mais abrupto, com um fracasso mais evidente dos militares, que saíram de cena completamente derrotados (O’DONNELL e SCHMITTER, 1988). Busca-se examinar, assim, se uma transição gradual e negociada, como a brasileira, gera vínculos e predisposições mais fracos dos cidadãos em relação à democracia, ou seja, uma menor qualidade democrática de um ponto de vista maximalista (DIAMOND e MORLINO, 2004), além de menores índices de capital social, em contraponto com o caso argentino, em que o apelo democrático tenderia a ser maior pelo fato de a ditadura ter saído de cena com uma imagem mais clara de fracasso político. Para verificar tais impactos na prática, serão utilizados dados do Latinobarómetro de 1995, 2000, 2005 e 2010- eventualmente complementados por dados do World Values Survey de 1990- analisando as diferenças em termos de cultura política e capital social nos dois países, levando em consideração a diferença entre os seus legados. / This thesis refers to the matter of political transition of military regimes to democracy combined with political culture. Thus it aims to verify, both in Brazil and in Argentina, the differences in perception of citizens in terms of trust in militaries, evaluation of their governments' situation, interest in politics, preference for democratic regime, satisfaction with democracy, opinion about vote and social capital, represented by interpersonal and institutional trust. These differences could be derived form two distinct models of transition: while in Brazil the transition happened in a slow, gradual and negotiated way, in Argentina the process was more abrupt, presenting a more evident failure of militaries, who left the scene completely defeated (O'DONNELL and SCHIMITTER, 1988). Therefore, the thesis aims to examinate if a negotiated and gradual transition, like the Brazilian, generates weaker ties and predispositions of citizens in relation to democracy, which means a lower democratic quality from a maximalist point of view (DIAMOND and MORLINO, 2004), in addition to lower levels of social capital, in contrast to the Argentinean case, in which the democratic appeal would tend to be enhanced due to the fact that the dictatorship ended with a clearer image of failure. In order to verify these impacts in practice, data from Latinobarómetro for 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010 will be used- complemented by data from the World Values Survey for 1990 when necessary- analyzing the differences in terms of political culture and social capital in the two countries, taking into account the differences between their legacies.

As climate change continues to permeate the current political discourse and its effects becomes increasingly visible, the way countries respond to the situation is crucial for determining the extent of future environmental degradation. The Paris Agreement is an attempt to mitigate and adapt to the situation, however the western values tied to it have been criticised. The effectiveness of democracy in environmental protection has been questioned, especially its ties to capitalism and individualism. This thesis uses the theory of authoritarian environmentalism to investigate this debate and see whether the claims have any legitimacy in the context of the Paris Agreement and the promises made in relation to it.     This thesis is a structured focused comparison which compares the policies and projects in three democratic and three autocratic African countries in close geographical proximity and similar environmental situations, to investigate if and in what way the type of government affects the promises made, and whether they are kept, to the Paris Agreement and its signatories. The indicators used for the thesis include policies and internationally funded projects, due to their accessibility, however it is worth noting that they only give a crude approximation of the activities and ambition in the countries, with several others having important roles.    The quality of the six countries’ Intended Nationally Determined Contributions is investigated and followed up with an evaluation of some of the projects active to examine if the countries are implementing their promised efforts, already in these early, yet important, stages of the Agreement. In addition, the theory is applied to the countries’ efforts and some conclusions are reached, including the overall good quality of the countries’ environmental work and confirming that authoritarian countries can produce quality policies, while still having lacking areas, similar to their democratic counterparts, pointing to the complexity of the topic.

Esta tese refere-se à problemática das transições políticas de regimes militares para democracias articulada com a cultura política. Busca-se, com isso, verificar nos contextos de Brasil e Argentina, as diferenças nas percepções dos cidadãos em termos de confiança nos militares, avaliação da situação dos seus governos, interesse por política, preferência pelo regime democrático, satisfação com a democracia, opinião sobre o voto e capital social, plasmado pela confiança interpessoal e institucional. Estas diferenças poderiam ser provenientes de dois o poder de mobilização que os indivíduos possuem em relação a um grupo. É um eguido individualmente porgentina o processo foi mais abrupto, com um fracasso mais evidente dos militares, que saíram de cena completamente derrotados (O’DONNELL e SCHMITTER, 1988). Busca-se examinar, assim, se uma transição gradual e negociada, como a brasileira, gera vínculos e predisposições mais fracos dos cidadãos em relação à democracia, ou seja, uma menor qualidade democrática de um ponto de vista maximalista (DIAMOND e MORLINO, 2004), além de menores índices de capital social, em contraponto com o caso argentino, em que o apelo democrático tenderia a ser maior pelo fato de a ditadura ter saído de cena com uma imagem mais clara de fracasso político. Para verificar tais impactos na prática, serão utilizados dados do Latinobarómetro de 1995, 2000, 2005 e 2010- eventualmente complementados por dados do World Values Survey de 1990- analisando as diferenças em termos de cultura política e capital social nos dois países, levando em consideração a diferença entre os seus legados. / This thesis refers to the matter of political transition of military regimes to democracy combined with political culture. Thus it aims to verify, both in Brazil and in Argentina, the differences in perception of citizens in terms of trust in militaries, evaluation of their governments' situation, interest in politics, preference for democratic regime, satisfaction with democracy, opinion about vote and social capital, represented by interpersonal and institutional trust. These differences could be derived form two distinct models of transition: while in Brazil the transition happened in a slow, gradual and negotiated way, in Argentina the process was more abrupt, presenting a more evident failure of militaries, who left the scene completely defeated (O'DONNELL and SCHIMITTER, 1988). Therefore, the thesis aims to examinate if a negotiated and gradual transition, like the Brazilian, generates weaker ties and predispositions of citizens in relation to democracy, which means a lower democratic quality from a maximalist point of view (DIAMOND and MORLINO, 2004), in addition to lower levels of social capital, in contrast to the Argentinean case, in which the democratic appeal would tend to be enhanced due to the fact that the dictatorship ended with a clearer image of failure. In order to verify these impacts in practice, data from Latinobarómetro for 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010 will be used- complemented by data from the World Values Survey for 1990 when necessary- analyzing the differences in terms of political culture and social capital in the two countries, taking into account the differences between their legacies.

O presente trabalho é um estudo dos editoriais dos jornais Cruzeiro do Sul e Diário de Sorocaba entre os anos de 1964 e 1974, no contexto do Estado Autoritário, sob o governo militar, com o objetivo de compreender o papel dos dois principais jornais da cidade de Sorocaba, com influencias em outras cidades da região, durante esses dez anos de construção e consolidação da ordem autoritária. A investigação dos editoriais permitiu observar e reconstituir as trajetórias destes jornais demonstrando aspectos importantes tanto para a história social e política do período, quanto para a história da cidade de Sorocaba e de sua imprensa diária local. / This Paperwork is a study of the editorials from Cruzeiro do Suland Diário de Sorocaba newspapers between the years of 1964 and 1974, in the context of the Authoritarian State Regime, under the Military Government Rule, in order to understand the role of the major newspapers from Sorocaba city, which also had influence in the other cities in the region, during these period of ten years of construction and consolidation of the authoritarian order. This Editorials Research allowed observation and recognition these newspapers trajectories demonstrating important aspects for both the social and the political history of the period, as for the history of the city of Sorocaba and its local daily press.