In this paper, we investigate the information content of the insider trading. We use book to market ratio to judge the stock price of the firms which tend to be overvalued or undervalued. We suppose that the higher the book to market ratio is, the more the insider buy; vice versa. According to the past papers, seasoning equity offering often happens when the stock price is overvalued. On the other hand, the stock repurchase often happens when the stock price is undervalued. As a result, we propose that if the seasoning equity offering happens, the insiders will sell more holding stocks. If the stock repurchase happens, the insiders will buy more holding stocks. Besides, we try to understand if we can use the insider trading and the book to market ratio to be the signal of seasoning equity offerings or stock repurchase. These empirical results are not the same as our hypotheses because of the specific reason¡Xmost of the corporations in the sample are operated by family. Therefore, they won¡¦t sell their stocks easily. We have to understand the real trading motivation in the subsequences study.

Whether the quality of a firm's reported earnings affects investors' ability to predict future earnings and stock returns is still a subject of much debate among accounting researchers. Lev (1989) suggests that low quality earnings may be causing the relatively low correlation between reported earnings and stock returns (or the market's evaluation of future earnings). This dissertation used the valuation model described in Ohlson (1995) and Feltham and Ohlson (1995) to explore the possible links between accounting method choices and the ability of investors to use reported earnings to predict future earnings. The results demonstrate that prior researchers' assumptions regarding which accounting methods are generally conservative or liberal are reasonably accurate over large numbers of firms. The results also show that one group of analysts (Value Line Investment Survey) is able to predict future earnings more accurately over medium-term and long-term forecast horizons for firms using generally conservative accounting methods than those firms employing generally liberal accounting methods. This research adds to the prior "quality of earnings" research by showing that analysts can predict earnings more accurately for certain classes of firms (i.e., firms using conservative accounting methods), thus increasing our knowledge of what constitutes high-quality earnings. The research also explores the effects of growth on the quality of earnings question, the effects of firm size, leverage, and industry membership on the relationship, and the robustness of the Feltham and Ohlson Model to alternative definitions of key components of the model. / Ph. D.

This thesis analyzes the relationship between stock returns and firm-specific characteristics including market beta, size, book-to-market ratio, leverage, earnings yield, net sales-to-price ratio and prior return performance in Istanbul Stock Exchange during the period 1993-2003. Moreover, the predictability of some macroeconomic variables based on the stock market return behavior is investigated.

企業對於日常發生之經濟事項，按照一般公認會計原則處理，依此原則而編製之財務報表，即為投資人評估及了解公司財務狀況之工具。而會計上所表達之公司價值（資產減負債之餘額）通常也稱為公司帳面價值(BOOK VALUE)。另一方面，公司之股票市價，代表市場上投資人對公司價值之評估，此價值通常被稱為公平市價(MARKET VALUE)。然而公司之帳面價值和公平市價往往不相等，兩者間之差異即為未實現損益。而差異產生的原因，即歸因於會計對於經濟事項處理之特殊規範。 　　由上述分析可知，未實現損益的多寡便會間接影響BV/MV ratio的大小，而未實現損益可能來自於資產，亦可能來自負債，而本論文僅討論資產面之未實現損益。以單一資產為例，從資產的購置使用至處置、廢棄為止，不論其未實現損益有多少，終因資產的報廢或處置而將未實現損益認列，因此公司之未實現損益便會受到資產狀況的影響。若將所有樣本按可折舊性資產多寡，以及資產平均耐用年限長短分類，然後進行相關之實證分析，其結果應會有顯著的差異。 　　本研究對象為台灣之上市公司，除此之外，研究之時間落差(Time Lag)從二期至七期。實證結果顯示，就以可折舊性資產多寡分類之樣本而言，可折舊性資產較多之樣本的模式解釋力確實比可折舊性資產較少之樣本高。其次，按資產平均耐用年限長短分類之實證結果而言，資產平均耐用年限較長之樣本，要將未實現損益認列所花費時間，明顯較資產平均耐用年限較短之樣本來得長。此外，針對部分和預期不符之實證結果，改採Fixed-Effect Model進行修正，結果顯示Fixed-Effect Model之修正效果相當良好。

Made available in DSpace on 2016-03-15T19:25:58Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Sergio de Bona.pdf: 464852 bytes, checksum: d485200ef19b70fdccd333d296f27448 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-08-13 / Fundo Mackenzie de Pesquisa / The Brazilian economy has experienced significant structural changes that have caused the Central Bank of Brazil to reduce interest rates. In addition to maintaining inflation rate close to target for the country it has contributed to the reduction of risks premiums. In this context of low interest rates and risks, evaluation and study of value (high book-to-market ratio) and growth (low book-to-market) type stock portfolios may represent a decisive factor in achieving superior financial returns. As discussed and researched in international markets, we analyzed in the Brazilian market if value stock portfolios have higher returns than growth type when maintained for long term, on a one-year basis. Faced with this prospect, this study analyzed and compared, based on the methodology proposed by Fama and French (1992, 1993), the performance of value and growth type portfolios built from the stocks that comprise the IBrX-50 of the São Paulo Stock Exchange, for the period from 2003 to 2011. For the statistical analysis of the portfolio s returns we used the three-factor pricing model: the market risk (beta), as defined by CAPM, the company size, measured by the market value of the stocks and the book-to-market index, represented by the ratio between the company s books and the market value of equity. The results demonstrated that investments in the value type portfolios in Brazil during this period have provided higher returns than investments in growth type, confirming also the perspective and results from Fama and French s (1992) analysis and published studies in international markets and Brazilian market. This confirmation may result in investment opportunities for investors and financial players on the market. / A economia brasileira tem apresentado mudanças estruturais significativas que tem determinado de parte do Banco Central do Brasil a redução das taxas de juros. Adicionalmente a manutenção da taxa de inflação próxima da meta estabelecida para o país tem contribuído para a redução dos prêmios de risco. Neste contexto de baixos juros e riscos, a avaliação e estudo das carteiras compostas por ações do tipo valor (alta relação livro-mercado) e crescimento (baixa relação livro-mercado) pode representar um fator decisivo para obtenção de retornos financeiros superiores. Assim como analisado e pesquisado em mercados internacionais, buscou-se analisar no mercado brasileiro se as carteiras compostas por ações do tipo valor apresentam retornos maiores do que as do tipo crescimento quando mantidas no longo prazo por períodos de um ano. Diante de tal perspectiva, este estudo analisou e comparou, com base na metodologia proposta por Fama e French (1992, 1993) o desempenho de carteiras do tipo valor e crescimento formadas a partir das ações que compõem o índice IBrX-50 da Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo, tomando como base o período de 2003 a 2011. Para a análise estatística dos retornos das carteiras utilizou-se o modelo de três fatores: o risco mercado (beta), conforme definido no CAPM; o tamanho da empresa, medido pelo valor de mercado das ações e o índice book-to-market, que representa a relação entre o valor contábil e o valor de mercado do patrimônio líquido. O resultado foi que os investimentos em carteiras do tipo valor no Brasil, durante este período, incorreram em retornos superiores aos investimentos em carteiras do tipo crescimento, confirmando assim a perspectiva e resultados de análise realizada por Fama e French (1992) e de outros estudos realizados tanto para os mercados internacionais quanto para o mercado brasileiro. Esta confirmação pode resultar em oportunidades de investimentos aos investidores e agentes financeiros do mercado.

1997年爆發亞洲金融風暴，隔年（1998年）起公司發生財務危機事件層出不窮，1998年至2005年間最為嚴重；2007年全球金融海嘯至今，投資人擔心買到地雷股，對於投資股票市場仍採觀望態度。在經過層層把關的財報背後究竟隱藏多少危機？這些危機難道是不可預測的嗎？其實，公司爆發財務危機並非一夕之間產生的問題，就如同人類的慢性病不是一天造成的，是長期忽略身體健康警訊造成的結果，事出必有因，因此許多學者便開始探究財務危機背後的成因，試圖找出一些指標供投資人作為投資前之考量因素。 本研究主要之目的在於探究財務危機之預測指標，分別探討Beta、公司規模、淨值市價比以及前一年平均報酬（負的動能效果）是否可作為財務危機之預測指標。本研究之樣本公司為1983年至2007年之台灣上市公司，利用Altman提出之Z-score模型將公司區分為危機公司以及正常公司，再將樣本公司依Beta、公司規模、淨值市價比以及前一年平均報酬分別分組，探討這些變數是否可作為財務危機之預測指標。實證結果指出Beta及淨值市價比無法作為財務危機之預測指標，但公司規模及前一年平均報酬（負的動能效果）可以作為財務危機之預測指標。 / With the Asian financial crisis breaking out in 1997, many companies began to suffer financial distress in the following year, and the situations were getting even worse during 1998 and 2005. Faced the new waves of financial tsunami across the world starting from 2007, the investor, therefore, have been adopting a wait-and-see attitudes towards the stock market, fearing of being hit by the “tank stocks”。How many financial problems hidden behind the carefully prepared financial statements? Are they unpredictable? As a matter of fact, just like the human chronic diseases which actually caused by long-term ignorance of health warning, corporate financial distress never happens suddenly. Thus a number of scholars are dedicated to study the reasons for financial problems, attempting to figure out certain indicators capable of being prior reference for investment decision-making. This paper aims to study the predictors of financial distress. Beta, firm size, book-to-market ratio and average monthly prior-year return (negative momentum effect) are to be considered respectively to determine their possibilities of being predictors. The sample companies discussed in this paper are chosen among the listed companies during 1983 and 2007 in Taiwan. They are grouped into two categories of crisis company and normal company by using the Z-score model developed by Altman. Then the sample companies are divided in terms of Beta, firm size, book-to-market ratio and average monthly prior-year return so as to trace these variables’ likelihood to predict bankruptcy. It eventually turns out that firm size and average monthly prior-year return could serve as predictors of financial distress, other than Beta and book-to-market ratio.

Made available in DSpace on 2015-04-16T14:48:45Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 arquivototal.pdf: 1589704 bytes, checksum: d5351b39767d1d7b0ce73bf049bbcfb5 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-12-09 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / This study aimed to analyze the influence of future expectations of book-to-market ratio (B/M) and Return on Equity (ROE) as additional variables to the current B/M ratio in explaining the returns of the Brazilian capital market. Primarily, we investigate the contribution of these three fundamentalist variables in explaining changes on stock returns. Comparatively, was also analyzed the explanatory power of traditional asset pricing models formed with proxies for risk factors: beta, size, B/M ratio, momentum and liquidity. Finally, we verified the consistency of the fundamental variables after combinations of these control variables. The population consisted of all non-financial companies with shares traded on the Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo - BOVESPA from January 1995 to December 2010. The forecast variables were estimated by a linear dynamic panel (ARELLANO, BOND, 1991) with a lag. To analyze the contribution of the variables in explaining the returns of the Brazilian market, we used panel data regressions between annual stock returns and the two groups of explanatory variables. Referring to the fundamentalist variables analyzed, we found that when they were used separately as a multifactor model, the future estimates of the B/M ratio and ROE were not statistically significant and had low explanatory power, suggesting that they have no relevance to the explanation of Brazilian stock returns. The expectations of B/M ratio and ROE were also combined with the current B/M ratio, forming an aggregate forecast variable. It was found that this variable was statistically significant and provided a considerable increase in the explanatory power of models that included it. Thus, Hypotheses 2 and 3 that the future expectations of B/M ratio and future expectations of ROE explain part of the variations on stock returns in Brazil cannot be rejected. The B/M ratio was tested as fundamentalist variable as proxy for risk factor, representing an overlapping variable between the two approaches. The results showed that the B/M ratio was positive and statistically significant in both the fundamental approach and the risk factors approach. Furthermore, when combined in the joint models, it contributed as a risk factor and as a component of the aggregate forecast variable. Thus, the Hypothesis 1 that B/M ratio explains part of changes in Brazilian stock returns cannot be rejected. With respect to the proxies of risk factors, we verified the existence of the B/M effect, a reversed momentum effect and a liquidity premium in the Brazilian capital market. In contrast, there was not found a size effect in the period analyzed. Moreover, the results obtained in this dissertation might contribute to the establishment of investment strategies in the stock market, since the B/M ratio plus the forecasts of the B/M ratio and ROE for the following year were able to explain some of the variations on stock returns for the same period. / Este trabalho teve como objetivo analisar a influência das expectativas futuras do índice book-to-market (B/M) e do Retorno sobre o Capital Próprio (ROE) como variáveis adicionais ao índice B/M atual, na explicação dos retornos do mercado de capitais brasileiro. Inicialmente, buscou-se investigar a contribuição dessas três variáveis fundamentalistas na explicação dos retornos das ações. Comparativamente, também foi analisado o poder explicativo de modelos de precificação tradicionais, formados por proxies para fatores de risco: beta, tamanho, índice B/M, momento e liquidez. Por fim, verificou-se a consistência das variáveis fundamentalistas, após combinações com essas variáveis de controle. A população foi composta por todas as empresas não-financeiras, com ações negociadas na Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo BM&FBOVESPA, no período de 1º de janeiro de 1995 a 31 de dezembro de 2010. As variáveis de previsão foram estimadas por meio de um painel linear dinâmico (ARELLANO; BOND, 1991), com uma defasagem. Para a análise da contribuição das variáveis na explicação dos retornos do mercado brasileiro, foram utilizadas regressões com dados em painel entre os retornos anuais das ações e os dois grupos de variáveis explicativas. Quanto às variáveis fundamentalistas analisadas, verificou-se que, quando utilizadas separadamente, na forma de modelo multifatorial, as estimativas futuras do índice B/M e do ROE foram estatisticamente não significativas e apresentaram baixo poder explicativo, não se mostrando relevantes para a explicação dos retornos das ações brasileiras. As expectativas do B/M e do ROE também foram combinadas com o índice B/M observado, formando uma variável de previsão agregada. Constatou-se que essa variável foi estatisticamente significativa e proporcionou um aumento considerável na capacidade explicativa dos modelos que a incluíram. Diante disso, as hipóteses 2 e 3 da dissertação, de que a expectativa futura do índice B/M e a expectativa futura do ROE explicam parte das variações dos retornos das ações brasileiras, não podem ser rejeitadas. O índice B/M foi testado como variável fundamentalista e como proxy para fator de risco, constituindo uma variável de sobreposição entre as duas abordagens. Os resultados evidenciaram que o índice B/M foi positivo e estatisticamente significativo, tanto nos modelos da abordagem fundamentalista, como nos modelos de fatores de risco. Além disso, quando inserido nos modelos conjuntos, verificou-se a sua contribuição como fator de risco, bem como componente da variável de previsão agregada. Dessa forma, a hipótese 1, de que o índice B/M explica parte das variações dos retornos das ações brasileiras, não pode ser rejeitada. Com relação às proxies de fatores de risco, verificou-se a existência do efeito B/M, de um efeito momento invertido e de um prêmio de liquidez no mercado de capitais brasileiro. Em contrapartida, não se observou a existência de um efeito tamanho, no período analisado. Ademais, ressalta-se que os resultados obtidos nesta dissertação podem contribuir para estabelecimento de estratégias de investimento no mercado de ações, uma vez que a combinação entre o índice B/M atual e as previsões do índice B/M e do ROE, para o ano seguinte, foram capazes de explicar parte das variações dos retornos das ações no mesmo período.

Syfte: Det huvudsakliga syftet är att testa om Piotroskis F_SCORE tillämpat på aktier med hög book-to-market kvot kan överavkasta marknadsportföljen samt, som en konsekvens av detta, undersöka vilken grad av marknadseffektivitet som föreligger. Det sekundära syftet är att tillföra ett kunskapsbidrag till företagsledare om relevansen i book-to-market kvoten. Metod: Detta är en kvantitativ studie som utgår från ett positivistiskt synsätt och en hypotetiskt-deduktiv ansats. Statistiska tester i form av regressionsanalyser har utformats för att bestämma resultatets signifikansnivå. Den empiriska datan har inhämtats från databasen Thomson Reuter Datastream och sammanställts i Excel för att sedan analyseras i statistikprogrammet Stata. Resultat & slutsats: Studiens resultat visar att värdeportföljen överavkastar marknadsindex samt att den gör det över en längre tidsperiod. Det går också att fastställa att den riskjusterade avkastningen för värdeportföljen är högre än för marknaden, vilket tyder på att överavkastningen inte beror på en högre risk. Det går dock inte att avgöra om den effektiva marknadshypotesen råder eller ej, däremot går det att utesluta att den starka och semi-starka formen av marknadseffektivitet gäller. Förslag till fortsatt forskning: För att studera vidare huruvida den svaga formen av marknadseffektivitet råder är ett förslag till vidare forskning att göra en studie utifrån Contrarian modellen för att använda teknisk analys som endast tar hänsyn till historiska kursrörelser för att förutspå framtida avkastning. Ett annat förslag till vidare forskning är att genomföra en liknande studie som denna men då bortse från book to market kvoten och istället köpa aktier med ett F_SCORE högre eller lika med 5 samt att blanka de aktier som har ett F_SCORE under 5. Det tredje förslaget är att studera vidare kring sambandet mellan avkastning och anomalier som småbolagseffekten, likviditet och beteendefinans för att få en tydligare förståelse för vad som orsakar överavkastningen. Uppsatsens bidrag: Det teoretiska bidraget är att den aktuella investeringsstrategin överavkastar marknadsindex för vald tidsperiod utan en nödvändigtvis högre risk. F_SCORE antar en normalfördelningskurva där de bolag som har F_SCORE över fem generellt presterar bättre. Resultatet visar även att book to market kvoten är ett användbart nyckeltal för bolagsvärdering. Det praktiska bidraget är att det kan vara av vikt för företagsledare att fokusera på book to market kvoten för att locka investerare. För investerare är bidraget att denna investeringsstrategi kan slå marknadsindex utan att risken i portföljen ökar. / Aim The main aim is to test if Piotroskis F_SCORE applied on stocks with high book-to- market ratio outperforms the market portfolio and therefore determine the level of market efficiency. The secondary aim is to provide knowledge to business executives about the relevance of a book-to-market policy. Method This study is a quantitative research which assumes a positivistic research philosophy with a deductive approach. Several regression analyses have been used to confirm the statistical significance of the different estimated parameters. The empirical results give answers to two hypotheses based on the aim of this research. The empirical data have been collected from Thomson Reuter Datastream, compiled in Excel and analyzed with the statistical software Stata. Result & Conclusions The empirical results of this study show that the value portfolio has a higher return than the market index. The risk-adjusted return for the value portfolio is higher compared to the market portfolio. This indicates that the higher return of the value portfolio is not due to a higher risk. By the results of this study there is not possible to determine whether the market is fully efficient or not. It is only possible to exclude the strong and semi-strong form of market efficiency. Suggestions for future research For future studies, we suggest further research about the weak form of market efficiency. Using historical data to determine future return, as Contrarian model, is one suggestion to reach further evidence of market (in)efficiency. Since F_SCORE assumes a normal distribution and because of the poor performance of the low F_SCORE firms another suggestion is short-sell these stocks to see if the return ca be increased. This empirical field needs further research about which factors that causes the higher return for these stocks. The small firm effect, liquidity and behavioral finance are just a few anomalies that may have a relationship with excess return. Contribution of the thesis The investment strategy in this research shows a higher excess return compared to the market index as well as a higher risk-adjusted return over the given period. This is not only a contribution to investors but also in a theoretical field due to the efficient market hypothesis. F_SCORE have a normal distribution curve where the stocks with F_SCORE of 5 or higher generally have a higher mean return. Another contribution is the relevance of book to market ratio as a useful strategy for valuating companies. The practical contribution gives business executives better understanding about the relevance of a book-to-market policy when attracting investors.

本論文採用Fama and French[1993]所提出之三因子模式為基礎，以公司規模[firm size]、帳面淨值市價比[book to market ratio]、及市場超額報酬[market excess return]為三因子，配合動能因子[momentum]及三種不同的流動性指標[成交量，成交值，成交量週轉率]來延伸探討五因子的時間序列資產定價模式。 本文的研究資料為西元1992年1月到西元2000年12月間的452家上市公司週資料，期望能解釋月資料所無法包含的資訊內涵。 結論： (1.)台灣股票市場確實有規模效果，淨值市價比效果，動能效果，及流動性效果。 (2.)市場因子具有解釋能力。 (3.)小公司投資組合解釋效果不佳，在台灣股票市場可能有其他因素未放入評價模式中驗證。 (4.)流動性指標在台灣股票市場上，確實和股票報酬有負向的關係存在，且建議以成交量週轉率作為流動性的代表指標。 (5.)台灣股票市場有顯著的動能存在，投資者可藉由動能策略獲得更高的超額報酬。 / This article provides evidence that stock returns listed in the Taiwan Stock Exchange do have shared variation due to the “market anomalies”, such as size, book-to-market ratio, momentum, and liquidity, which have been argued by scholars and investment professionals for many years. The evidence shows that small-cap effect plays an important role in explaining the violation in stock returns after controlling for other determinants of stock returns. Besides, value, momentum, and liquidity effect do exist in the Taiwan stock market. Moreover, we suggest that turnover rate is a better proxy for liquidity in terms of its stronger relations with the stylized portfolio returns. We empirically estimate the intercepts of our asset-market models using weekly time-series data for individual securities over the sample period from 1992 to 2000 and across 452 securities. To emphasize particularly, our result does not imply that the Taiwan stock market is not an efficient market.

本研究考慮市場、規模、淨值市價比及前期累積報酬，這四個影響股票報酬的因子，分別以個股特徵之持股比例變動法與四因子評估模型，對共同基金風險調整後的報酬作績效評比，不但可以評估基金的選股能力與擇時能力，並進一步瞭解報酬之風險來源。最後討論這兩種評比方式的適用性，並藉由基準投資組合將市場股票區分成不同的風險類別，根據基金在各類別股票的持有比例，引伸出對基金持股風格的另一種看法。現將本篇研究結果整理如下： 1. 四因子模型對於資產的解釋能力比資本資產評價模型（CAPM）好；並且透過規模、淨值市價比、前期累積報酬之風險溢酬因子，可以瞭解報酬之不同風險來源。 2. 依照個股特徵為基準之持股比例變動法，計算出實際績效、特徵擇時、特徵選股及平均持股型態的績效。結果顯示共同基金多具有正的選股能力，擇時能力，但經過檢定，並沒有顯著的超額報酬。 3. 以四因子評價模型對共同基金績效做評估。結果發現幾乎不具有顯著的超額報酬；兩種方法的評比結果相類似。但是部份基金在規模、與前期累積報酬項有顯著異於零的結果，顯示基金在規模、量能操作上有穩定的績效表現，因此使得檢定的結果顯著。 4. 而以持股類型風格上來看，顯示部份基金會高度持有大型股、以及過去表現良好的股票，持股風險類群明顯而集中，屬於穩健、偏重長期，並配合量能操作的投資策略。 最後根據本文的實證結果，分別對投資人與基金經理人提出建議。而從持股比例計算的過程，對持股風格分析提供一個更簡易明瞭的看法，並將研究中發現的問題，一併列在建議中，提供給後續研究者作為參考。 第一章 緒論…………………………………………1 第二章 文獻回顧……………………………………4 第一節 風險調整因素……………………………4 第二節 四因子評估模型…………………………7 第三節 依個股特徵之持股比例變動法…………9 第三章 研究設計……………………………………13 第一節 研究假說…………………………………13 第二節 研究架構…………………………………14 第三節 研究範圍與期間…………………………16 第四節 變數定義與資料處理……………………18 第四章 實證結果與分析……………………………22 第一節 四因子評估模型…………………………22 第二節 共同基金績效評估………………………27 第三節 基金之持股類型比例……………………36 第五章 結論與建議…………………………………40 第一節 結論………………………………………40 第二節 建議…………………………………………41 參考文獻……………………………………………45