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Šiuolaikinė Centrinė Azija (CA / Kazachstanas, Uzbekistanas, Kyrgyzstanas, Tadžikistanas ir Turkmėnistanas) yra tarptautiniu mastu ekonomine ir saugumo prasme svarbus regionas. Jo didžiausia problema – ilgalaikio politinio stabilumo, kuris tapo disertacijos objektu, stoka. Atitinkamai, disertacijos tikslas buvo nustatyti pagrindines esamo ir potencialaus Centrinės Azijos valstybių nestabilumo priežastis, detaliai atskleisti jų esmę ir pasiūlyti efektyvią ilgalaikio stabilumo CA šalyse užtikrinimo koncepciją. Stabilumas studijoje apibrėžtas kaip revoliucijos bei objektyvios / subjektyvios (psichologinės) socio-politinės ir socio-ekonominės nepasitenkinimo valdžia bazės kaip revoliucijos prielaidos ir sąlygos atskiroje šalyje nebuvimas. Palankesnės sąlygos bet kokiai revoliucijai (klasikinei ar „spalvotai“), kaip teigiama disertacijoje, susidaro pereinamojo laikotarpio visuomenėse, neturinčiose gilių istorinių valstybingumo tradicijų, kaip tai yra CA valstybėse. Todėl buvo padaryta išvada, kad sėkmingas valstybės (kaip etninio-pilietinio ir institucinio darinio) „kūrimas“ yra fundamentali prevencinė revoliucijos (nestabilumo) ir jos prielaidų atsiradimo sąlyga, prezidentinių Centrinės Azijos šalių režimų valdymo sistemos organizavimo metu taikant socio-politinio korporatizmo principą. Jo esmė – konsensualinė valstybės valdančiojo elito politika, tenkinant ne vien savo, bet ir visuomeninius socio-ekonominius poreikius, kas turėtų užtikrinti ilgalaikį politinių CA šalių sistemų... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / Contemporary Central Asia (CA / Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan) is an internationally important region in economic and security sense. Its biggest problem is the lack of long-term political stability, which became the object of the thesis. Accordingly, the purpose of the thesis was to determine the basic reasons of instability in CA states, to disclose their detailed essence and offer an effective conception to maintain long-term stability in them. Stability was defined in dissertation as absence of revolution and objective/subjective socio-political and socio-economic base of discontent with the government of a single taken country, which is a premise and condition of the revolution in it. More favorable conditions for any revolution (classical or “colorful”), as it was stressed in the study, are supposed to form in the transitional societies with no deep historical tradition of statehood, as it is in case of CA states. Therefore, the conclusion was made that the successful state (as ethnic-civil entity and institutional system) “building” is a fundamental preventive condition of revolution (instability) and its premises there, applying principle of socio-political corporatism in organization of the system of governance in the framework of Central Asian presidential regimes. The core idea of the principle is a consensual politics of the ruling elite of the country, meeting not only individual needs, but also socio-economic needs of the... [to full text]

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Contemporary Central Asia (CA / Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan) is an internationally important region in economic and security sense. Its biggest problem is the lack of long-term political stability, which became the object of the thesis. Accordingly, the purpose of the thesis was to determine the basic reasons of instability in CA states, to disclose their detailed essence and offer an effective conception to maintain long-term stability in them. Stability was defined in dissertation as absence of revolution and objective/subjective socio-political and socio-economic base of discontent with the government of a single taken country, which is a premise and condition of the revolution in it. More favorable conditions for any revolution (classical or “colorful”), as it was stressed in the study, are supposed to form in the transitional societies with no deep historical tradition of statehood, as it is in case of CA states. Therefore, the conclusion was made that the successful state (as ethnic-civil entity and institutional system) “building” is a fundamental preventive condition of revolution (instability) and its premises there, applying principle of socio-political corporatism in organization of the system of governance in the framework of Central Asian presidential regimes. The core idea of the principle is a consensual politics of the ruling elite of the country, meeting not only individual needs, but also socio-economic needs of the... [to full text] / Šiuolaikinė Centrinė Azija (CA / Kazachstanas, Uzbekistanas, Kyrgyzstanas, Tadžikistanas ir Turkmėnistanas) yra tarptautiniu mastu ekonomine ir saugumo prasme svarbus regionas. Jo didžiausia problema – ilgalaikio politinio stabilumo, kuris tapo disertacijos objektu, stoka. Atitinkamai, disertacijos tikslas buvo nustatyti pagrindines esamo ir potencialaus Centrinės Azijos valstybių nestabilumo priežastis, detaliai atskleisti jų esmę ir pasiūlyti efektyvią ilgalaikio stabilumo CA šalyse užtikrinimo koncepciją. Stabilumas studijoje apibrėžtas kaip revoliucijos bei objektyvios / subjektyvios (psichologinės) socio-politinės ir socio-ekonominės nepasitenkinimo valdžia bazės kaip revoliucijos prielaidos ir sąlygos atskiroje šalyje nebuvimas. Palankesnės sąlygos bet kokiai revoliucijai (klasikinei ar „spalvotai“), kaip teigiama disertacijoje, susidaro pereinamojo laikotarpio visuomenėse, neturinčiose gilių istorinių valstybingumo tradicijų, kaip tai yra CA valstybėse. Todėl buvo padaryta išvada, kad sėkmingas valstybės (kaip etninio-pilietinio ir institucinio darinio) „kūrimas“ yra fundamentali prevencinė revoliucijos (nestabilumo) ir jos prielaidų atsiradimo sąlyga, prezidentinių Centrinės Azijos šalių režimų valdymo sistemos organizavimo metu taikant socio-politinio korporatizmo principą. Jo esmė – konsensualinė valstybės valdančiojo elito politika, tenkinant ne vien savo, bet ir visuomeninius socio-ekonominius poreikius, kas turėtų užtikrinti ilgalaikį politinių CA šalių sistemų... [toliau žr. visą tekstą]

The intracontinental endorheic Aral Sea, remote from oceanic influences, represents an excellent sedimentary archive in Central Asia that can be used for high-resolution palaeoclimate studies. We performed palynological, microfacies and geochemical analyses on sediment cores retrieved from Chernyshov Bay, in the NW part of the modern Large Aral Sea. The most complete sedimentary sequence, whose total length is 11 m, covers approximately the past 2000 years of the late Holocene. High-resolution palynological analyses, conducted on both dinoflagellate cysts assemblages and pollen grains, evidenced prominent environmental change in the Aral Sea and in the catchment area. The diversity and the distribution of dinoflagellate cysts within the assemblages characterized the sequence of salinity and lake-level changes during the past 2000 years. Due to the strong dependence of the Aral Sea hydrology to inputs from its tributaries, the lake levels are ultimately linked to fluctuations in meltwater discharges during spring. As the amplitude of glacial meltwater inputs is largely controlled by temperature variations in the Tien Shan and Pamir Mountains during the melting season, salinity and lake-level changes of the Aral Sea reflect temperature fluctuations in the high catchment area during the past 2000 years. Dinoflagellate cyst assemblages document lake lowstands and hypersaline conditions during ca. 0–425 AD, 920–1230 AD, 1500 AD, 1600–1650 AD, 1800 AD and since the 1960s, whereas oligosaline conditions and higher lake levels prevailed during the intervening periods. Besides, reworked dinoflagellate cysts from Palaeogene and Neogene deposits happened to be a valuable proxy for extreme sheet-wash events, when precipitation is enhanced over the Aral Sea Basin as during 1230–1450 AD. We propose that the recorded environmental changes are related primarily to climate, but may have been possibly amplified during extreme conditions by human-controlled irrigation activities or military conflicts. Additionally, salinity levels and variations in solar activity show striking similarities over the past millennium, as during 1000–1300 AD, 1450–1550 and 1600–1700 AD when low lake levels match well with an increase in solar activity thus suggesting that an increase in the net radiative forcing reinforced past Aral Sea’s regressions. On the other hand, we used pollen analyses to quantify changes in moisture conditions in the Aral Sea Basin. High-resolution reconstruction of precipitation (mean annual) and temperature (mean annual, coldest versus warmest month) parameters are performed using the “probability mutual climatic spheres” method, providing the sequence of climate change for the past 2000 years in western Central Asia. Cold and arid conditions prevailed during ca. 0–400 AD, 900–1150 AD and 1500–1650 AD with the extension of xeric vegetation dominated by steppe elements. Conversely, warmer and less arid conditions occurred during ca. 400–900 AD and 1150–1450 AD, where steppe vegetation was enriched in plants requiring moister conditions. Change in the precipitation pattern over the Aral Sea Basin is shown to be predominantly controlled by the Eastern Mediterranean (EM) cyclonic system, which provides humidity to the Middle East and western Central Asia during winter and early spring. As the EM is significantly regulated by pressure modulations of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) when the system is in a negative phase, a relationship between humidity over western Central Asia and the NAO is proposed. Besides, laminated sediments record shifts in sedimentary processes during the late Holocene that reflect pronounced changes in taphonomic dynamics. In Central Asia, the frequency of dust storms occurring during spring when the continent is heating up is mostly controlled by the intensity and the position of the Siberian High (SH) Pressure System. Using titanium (Ti) content in laminated sediments as a proxy for aeolian detrital inputs, changes in wind dynamics over Central Asia is documented for the past 1500 years, offering the longest reconstruction of SH variability to date. Based on high Ti content, stronger wind dynamics are reported from 450–700 AD, 1210–1265 AD, 1350–1750 AD and 1800–1975 AD, reporting a stronger SH during spring. In contrast, lower Ti content from 1750–1800 AD and 1980–1985 AD reflect a diminished influence of the SH and a reduced atmospheric circulation. During 1180–1210 AD and 1265–1310 AD, considerably weakened atmospheric circulation is evidenced. As a whole, though climate dynamics controlled environmental changes and ultimately modulated changes in the western Central Asia’s climate system, it is likely that changes in solar activity also had an impact by influencing to some extent the Aral Sea’s hydrology balance and also regional temperature patterns in the past. <hr> The appendix of the thesis is provided via the HTML document as ZIP download. / Der Aralsee ist ein intrakontinental gelegenes endorheisches Gewässer fernab von ozeanischen Einflüssen, welches ein exzellentes sedimentäres Archiv für hochauflösende Paläoklimastudien in Zentralasien darstellt. In der vorliegenden Studie wurden umfangreiche palynologische, mikrofazielle und geochemische Analysen anhand von mehreren Bohrkernen aus der Chernyshov-Bucht im NW des heutigen Großen Aralsees durchgeführt. Die vollständigste der erbohrten Sequenzen weist dabei eine Länge von 11 m auf und beinhaltet näherungsweise die letzten 2000 Jahre des Holozän. Die hochauflösenden palynologischen Analysen der Studie, welche sowohl die Untersuchung von Dinoflagellatenzysten als auch Pollen beinhaltet, zeugen von einschneidenden Umweltveränderungen im Aralsee und seinem Einzugsgebiet. Die Untersuchung von Diversität und räumlicher Verbreitung der fossilen Dinoflagellatenzysten vermittelt dabei ein genaues Bild von den Salinitäts- und Seespiegeländerungen der letzten 2000 Jahre. Aufgrund der weitgehenden Abhängigkeit der hydrologischen Verhältnisse des Aralsees von der Wasserführung seinen tributären Flüsse, hängt sein Seespiegel unmittelbar von den Schmelzwasserzuflüssen im Frühjahr ab. Da der Schmelzwasserzufluss seinerseits mit den Temperaturveränderungen im Tien Shan und Pamir während der Schneeschmelze in Verbindung steht, spiegeln die Paläo-Salinität und der Paläo-Seespiegel des Aralsees folglich die Temperaturveränderungen im hochgelegenen Einzugsgebiet des Aralsees wider. Die Untersuchung der fossilen Dinoflagellatenzysten belegt besonders niedrige Seestände und hypersaline Bedingungen während der Perioden 0–425 AD, 920–1230 AD, 1500 AD, 1600 AD, 1800 AD und seit 1960, wohingegen oligohaline Bedingungen und höhere Seestände zwischen diesen Phasen dokumentiert sind. Ferner stellen umgelagerte Dinoflagellatenzysten aus Paläogenen und Neogenen Ablagerungen wertvolle Proxies für den Beleg von extremen Flächenspülereignissen dar, wie sie beispielsweise 1230–1450 AD aufgetreten und durch sehr hohe Niederschläge dokumentiert sind. Anhand der in der Studie erarbeiteten Daten ist davon auszugehen, dass die am Aralsee nachgewiesenen Umweltveränderungen im Wesentlichen von klimatischen Änderungen induziert wurden, durch historischen Bewässerungsfeldbau oder militärischen Konflikten jedoch noch verstärkt werden konnten. Darüber hinaus zeigen die Seestandsveränderungen eine sehr hohe Korrelation mit der Sonnenaktivität im letzten Jahrtausend, wie etwa während den Perioden 1000–1300 AD, 1450–1550 und 1600–1700 AD. Komplementär zu der Untersuchung von Dinoflagellatenzysten liefert die Pollenanalyse wertvolle Klimadaten für das Becken des Aralsees. Verschiedene Temperatur- (Jahresmittel, kältester gegen wärmster Monat) und Niederschlagsparameter wurden mit Hilfe der Methode der „probability mutual climatic spheres“ quantitative ausgewertet, womit die Klimaentwicklung im westlichen Zentralasien der letzten 2000 Jahre nachvollzogen werden konnte. Kalte und aride Bedingungen wiesen demnach die durch trockenangepasste Vegetation und Steppenelementen geprägten Perioden 0–400 AD, 900–1150 AD und 1500–1650 AD auf. Andererseits traten warme und weniger aride Klimabedingungen in den durch niederschlagsbedürftigere Pflanzen gekennzeichneten Zeiträumen 400–900 AD and 1150–1450 AD in den Vordergrund. Die Studie zeigt für das Becken des Aralsees, dass die Veränderungen im Niederschlagsmuster hauptsächlich vom zyklonalen System des östlichen Mittelmeergebietes (EM) gesteuert werden, welches den nahen Osten und das westliche Zentralasien mit Feuchtigkeit im Winter und Frühjahr versorgt. Da seinerseits das EM maßgeblich von Luftdruckänderungen der Nordatlantischen Oszillation (NAO) während seiner negativen Phase reguliert wird, ist ein Zusammenhang zwischen der Feuchtigkeit im westlichen Zentralasien und dem NAO anzunehmen. Außerdem belegen die laminierten Sedimente Veränderungen in den Sedimentationsprozessen während des späten Holozän, sowie ausgeprägte Änderungen im taphonomischen Verhalten. In Zentralasien hängt die Häufigkeit der im Frühjahr auftretenden Staubstürme hauptsächlich von der Intensität und der Position des Sibirienhochs (SH) ab. Der Gehalt an Titanium (Ti) als Proxy für äolischen Eintrag in den laminierten Sedimenten erlaubt die Rekonstruktion von winddynamischen Veränderungen in Zentralasien in den letzten 1500 Jahren. Die Studie beinhaltet daher die bislang längste Analyse der Variabilität des SH. Hohe Titaniumwerte sprechen für eine stärkere Winddynamik während den Perioden 450–700 AD, 1210–1265 AD, 1350–1750 AD und 1800–1975 AD, und dokumentieren demzufolge eine stärker ausgeprägtes SH während des Frühjahrs. Umgekehrt belegen geringe Titaniumwerte für die Zeit von 1180–1210 AD, 1265–1310 AD, 1750–1800 AD und 1980–1985 AD einen reduzierten Einfluss des SH.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) first came into being as a result of border negotiations between Russia and China but evolved shortly thereafter into more than this. A regional organization comprised of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and China the SCO’s mandate now encompasses trade and security. Most secondary literature on this organization tends to detail the interests of its constituent members, while overlooking the historical relationships underlying the SCO’s growth and evolution. This thesis argues that Russia’s long-standing relationships with the states of Central Asia created the conditions making the SCO a necessary tool of Russian foreign policy, while Moscow’s relations with China and the US have driven the development of the group. It concludes that the SCO has become the most viable of Central Asia’s regional organizations because it has effectively resolved contradictions and conflicts in Russia’s relationships with the other SCO members.

This study seeks to analyze the process of transition and democratization in Kyrgyzstan from 1990 to 2000. The collapse of the Soviet Union opened new political perspectives for Kyrgyzstan and a chance to develop sovereign state based on democratic principles and values. Initially Kyrgyzstan attained some progress in building up a democratic state. However, in the second half of 1990s Kyrgyzstan shifted toward authoritarianism. Therefore, the full-scale transition to democracy has not been realized, and a well-functioning democracy has not been established. This study aims to focus on the impediments that led to the failure of establishing democracy in Kyrgyzstan. It analyzes the role of economy, political elites and political culture in the form of tribalism in Kyrgyzstan within the framework of the economic and political changes that have been undergoing since independence. The political and economic developments in Kyrgyzstan are discussed with specific reference to the hardships in economic transition, elite continuity and role of tribal and clan structures in present politics.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) first came into being as a result of border negotiations between Russia and China but evolved shortly thereafter into more than this. A regional organization comprised of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and China the SCO’s mandate now encompasses trade and security. Most secondary literature on this organization tends to detail the interests of its constituent members, while overlooking the historical relationships underlying the SCO’s growth and evolution. This thesis argues that Russia’s long-standing relationships with the states of Central Asia created the conditions making the SCO a necessary tool of Russian foreign policy, while Moscow’s relations with China and the US have driven the development of the group. It concludes that the SCO has become the most viable of Central Asia’s regional organizations because it has effectively resolved contradictions and conflicts in Russia’s relationships with the other SCO members.

Cette thèse explore les rôles rituels et sociaux des femmes au Tadjikistan et s’appuie sur seize mois d’enquête de terrain en zones urbaines et rurales. Deux fils conducteurs structurent l’analyse. Le premier porte sur la construction des féminités dans la société tadjike, tout particulièrement au regard du statut (acquis, perdu, reconquis) de femme mariée, extrêmement déterminant dans l’organisation des relations sociales. Le second interroge les rôles des femmes dans la reproduction familiale et sociale, tout particulièrement dans l’économie rituelle et matrimoniale. L’ensemble s’attache à montrer, au prisme des parcours matrimoniaux aujourd’hui extrêmement hachés des femmes, les négociations et adaptations de la société tadjike contemporaine aux bouleversements qu’elle a connus ces vingt dernières années : disparition de l’URSS, entrée dans l’économie de marché, la Guerre civile (1992-1997) et les migrations massives des hommes vers la Russie. Les enjeux ambivalents révélés par les mariages – étudiés comme performance, comme statut et comme relation – sont étudiés à deux niveaux : au niveau des femmes, pour qui le mariage constitue une ressource fondamentale autant qu’un carcan patriarcal ; et à celui des familles, pour qui le mariage est à la fois une obligation sociale et le lieu d’une contestation possible des hiérarchies en place. Située au croisement des études de genre, de parenté, d’économie rituelle et des recherches sur l’aire post-soviétique, cette thèse propose de saisir comment les transformations socioéconomiques récentes ont affecté les représentations et les relations de genre d’une part, et celles au sein de la famille, d’autre part. / This dissertation explores social and ritual roles of women in Tajikistan, based on a sixteen-month fieldwork conducted in both urban and rural areas. Two main threads structure the analysis. The first one addresses the construction of femininities in Tajik society, especially regarding their status (acquired, lost and conquered again) of “married woman” – which is extremely decisive for them to organize their social life. The second questions women’s roles in family and social reproduction, especially regarding ritual and matrimonial economy. Overall, this dissertation aims at showing that analyzing uneven and irregular women’s matrimonial itineraries reveals how negotiations and adaptations of Tajik society to ongoing transformations have been proceeding – following the upheavals this society has been going through: the breakdown of the USSR, the integration to market economy, the Civil war (1992-1997) and the wide migratory fluxes of men going to Russia. The ambiguous stakes contained in marriage – understood as a performance, a status and a relation – are analyzed at two levels: at the level of women, for whom marriage remains a crucial resource as much as a patriarchal constrain; and at the level of families, for whom marriage is both a social necessity and the opportunity to challenge former hierarchies. Located at the crossroad of gender studies, kinship, ritual economy and post-Soviet studies, this dissertation aims at understanding how recent socioeconomic transformations affect gender representations and relations, on the one hand, and those of family, on the other.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:27:59Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2008-11-25Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T18:56:59Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 nascimento_fal_me_mar.pdf: 1729879 bytes, checksum: 0c9764597bda9da0f73b88beca337bd8 (MD5) / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / A presente dissertação faz um estudo sobre as ações de Moscou em relação à Organização do Tratado do Atlântico Norte – OTAN – desde a concepção desta, em 1949, até o último governo de Vladimir Putin, findo em 2008. O trabalho pretende, além de identificar tais atitudes, apresentar as razões pelas quais a Rússia pode ser a favor ou contrária às ações da OTAN. Os materiais utilizados para a confecção desta dissertação compreendem livros e revistas especializados em Rússia, Eurásia, Geopolítica e Relações Internacionais, periódicos, documentos oficiais e não-oficiais e mapas, havendo, após sua coleta, uma análise histórica. / The current dissertation carries out a study on Moscow’s actions concerning the North Atlantic Treaty Organization – NATO – since its inception, in 1949, until Vladimir Putin’s last administration, which ended in 2008. Besides identifying such behavior, this work seeks to present the reasons why Russia can be in favor or against NATO’s actions. The making of this dissertation was based on books and journals specialized in Russia, Eurasia, Geopolitics and International Relations, periodicals, official and nonofficial documents and maps, all of these being followed by a historical analysis.