O objetivo da tese foi analisar a influência do rating, provido por agências independentes na formação dos preços de emissão de debêntures. A base de dados contou com 354 séries de debêntures não conversíveis, emitidas por empresas não financeiras, entre janeiro de 2000 e junho de 2010, em mercado primário público. A metodologia baseia-se no modelo fatorial de precificação aplicado a uma estrutura de dados pooled cross-section. Os modelos desenvolvidos ao longo do trabalho apontaram a relevância do rating na explicação do spread de emissão primária de debêntures no Brasil. Isoladamente, no entanto, explica cerca de 10% da variabilidade do spread. O estudo demonstrou serem significativas variáveis de crédito, maturidade, relação entre o volume emitido e o estoque de debêntures do mercado, a evolução do PIB e a alteração futura de rating (direção e a magnitude). Constatou-se também que emissões em percentual do DI tendem a ter menor spread que aquelas remuneradas por inflação mais taxa. Não se pode afirmar que o mercado diferencie, por meio do preço, a origem das agências ou as emissões com mais de um rating. As variáveis idiossincráticas da firma, na forma de índices econômico-financeiros extraídos de demonstrações financeiras publicadas, explicam diferenças de rating. Finalmente, constatou-se a utilidade da variável de escala linear de rating nos modelos de regressão desenvolvidos. / The overall objective of this dissertation was to analyze the influence of the rating provided by independent agencies in the spread of corporate bonds. The database was comprised of 354 series of non-convertible debentures issued by non-financial companies between January 2000 and June 2010 in public primary market. The study approach is based on the pricing factor model applied to a pooled cross-section data structure. The developed models suggested that the rating is significant in explaining the spread of primary issuance of debentures in Brazil. However, the rating explains no more than 10% of the spread variability. The study revealed that other factors were also significant during the analyzed period along with the credit variables: maturity, the ratio between the volume issued and total market outstanding of debentures, GDP growth, and future rating changes. It was also noted that series linked daily floating rates tend to have lower spread than those linked to inflation. When price is taken into account, the market does not seem to differentiate local agencies from international ones, or series with two or more ratings. Financial ratios obtained from financial statements, do explain the differences in rating. Finally, other important findings indicate the usefulness of the rating variable based in linear scale in the regression models developed in this work

O objetivo geral do trabalho foi analisar a formação dos preços de emissão de debêntures a partir de fatores determinantes do preço, medido pelo spread em relação a títulos públicos federais. Buscou-se identificar fatores que, além do rating, influenciam os preços, diferenças de spreads em função de grupos e associações de atributos de variáveis. A amostra contou com 154 registros de debêntures não conversíveis, emitidas no período de 2000 a 2005, com emissão primária por meio de leilão público e que receberam pelo menos um rating. O estudo pode ser classificado como quantitativo e descritivo, uma pesquisa ex-post-facto, com estrutura de dados pooled cross-section e tem como base o modelo de fatores, em linha com o modelo APT. Foi utilizada a regressão múltipla para análise da relação entre as variáveis e seu peso na formação dos spreads; regressão logística, para a diferenciação de setor e indexador; e análise de correspondência, para se avaliar preferências em termos de atributos de qualidade de crédito, maturidade e indexador. Concluiu-se que as variáveis referentes a risco de crédito foram relevantes na determinação do spread. Destaque-se, também, a importância do indexador IGP-M, pois sua variável é positivamente correlacionada com o spread, indicando que papéis indexados ao IGP-M tendem a ter remuneração maior. A variável referente ao período de crise mostrou-se relevante na determinação do spread, enquanto a referente ao setor de energia e telecomunicações não. Finalmente, o investidor aceita alongar os prazos para as emissões de melhor qualidade de crédito. / The objective of this work was to analyze the determinant factors of corporate bonds? issuing prices, measured as spread over Treasury, and to identify factors that, along with the rating, influence the prices, and spread differences among groups and associations of variables attributes. The sample had 154 cases of non-convertible debentures, issued between January 2000 and December 2005, by means of public auction and that received at least one rating. The study can be classified as quantitative and descriptive, an ex-post-facto research, with pooled cross-section data structure and has its base in the factor model, in line with the APT. Multiple regression was used to analyze the relationship between the spread and the other variables; logistic regression, for discrimination regarding sector and index; and correspondence analysis, to evaluate the attributes related to the variables credit quality, maturity and index. The results indicate that pricing is influenced by the credit risk variables. Also important is the IGP-M index variable, positively correlated with spread, indicating that bonds inflation indexed tend to have higher returns. The crises period is relevant for spread determination, while the sector of energy and the telecommunications is not. Also, choices of long-term bonds are associated with better ratings.

Submitted by Luciana Souza (souza.luciana@gmail.com) on 2013-02-07T18:24:12Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação_Final_Luciana.pdf: 274100 bytes, checksum: fb79e489d38d3648dde8b34b71135274 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzinei Teles Garcia Garcia (suzinei.garcia@fgv.br) on 2013-02-07T19:18:57Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação_Final_Luciana.pdf: 274100 bytes, checksum: fb79e489d38d3648dde8b34b71135274 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-02-07T19:19:37Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação_Final_Luciana.pdf: 274100 bytes, checksum: fb79e489d38d3648dde8b34b71135274 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-01-29 / This study tries to find the key drivers and/or influences for the issuance of corporate bonds by Brazilian companies offshore. 1.298 fixed income issues were analyzed, from January 1995 to July 2012, in the domestic market and abroad. From a biprobit model, it was found that main determinants for issuing offshore were greater liquidity for large volumes of funding, longer terms for their debts (if compared to the domestic market), and a larger interest rate differential (if comparing the internal rate with the American Treasury Bill rate). What made a company attractive to foreign investors were factors such as getting a rating grade by an internationally recognized agency, the fixed exchange rate period (before 1999) and a growing interest from foreign capital to invest in Brazilian companies (foreign liquidity). The economic crisis that started in 2008 had a negative influence on this type of issue. / Esse trabalho tem como objetivo encontrar os principais motivadores e/ou influenciadores para a emissão de bonds corporativos de empresas brasileiras fora do País. Foram analisadas 1.298 lançamentos de títulos de renda fixa, de janeiro de 1995 a julho de 2012, no mercado nacional e no exterior. A partir de uma análise biprobit, verificou-se que os principais determinantes para a recorrência ao exterior foram: busca de maior liquidez para grandes volumes de captações, maiores prazos para suas dívidas (comparados aos obtidos no mercado interno) e maior diferencial da taxa de juros (comparando a taxa praticada internamente com o exterior). Ademais, os fatores que tornam uma empresa atraente aos olhos dos investidores estrangeiros são a obtenção de rating de uma agência internacionalmente reconhecida, o período de câmbio fixo (anterior a 1999) e maior interesse do mercado externo em realizar investimentos em empresas brasileiras (liquidez externa). A crise econômica iniciada em 2008 apresentou influência negativa para esse tipo de emissão.

A top-down analysis approach used for over 17 thousand of euro-denominated corporate bond issuances executed in the European primary bond market between 1999 and 2013. The main findings reveal not only the most active corporate issuers in Europe, but they also show the decomposition of issuance by coupon type, rated versus unrated issuance, debut and perpetual issuances, high grade as well as high yield new bond issues split by sector, rating and maturity. I used the opensource statistical package Gretl and applied the ordinary least square technique in order to quantify the association between euro-denominated corporate issuance and credit spreads.

In January 2018, the regulations Mifid 2 & Mifir were introduced, which affect the securities market and thus the corporate bond market. The purpose of the introduction of the rules was, among other things, to increase transparency in the market as it was considered lacking. Transparency affects liquidity in later turn, as lower transparency can result in reduced liquidity. The study aims to see if there has been any change in liquidity since the transparency rules were introduced. To study this, a combination of quantitative and qualitative data is used. The quantitative data consists of 141 observations and the qualitative data consists of three interviews, this to generate a deeper analysis. The results of the study suggest that liquidity is generally good in the market, however, the results also indicate a decrease in liquidity. The results of the study thus contribute to future research and discussions regarding the regulations and possible improvements to make the market more transparent and liquid. / I januari år 2018 infördes regelverken Mifid 2 & Mifir, vilka berör värdepappersmarknaden och därmed företagsobligationsmarknaden. Syftet med reglernas införande var bland annat att öka transparensen på marknaden då den ansågs bristande. Transparensen påverkar i sin tur likviditeten då en lägre transparens kan resultera i att likviditeten minskar. Studien syftar tillatt se om det förekommer någon förändring i likviditeten sedan transparensreglerna infördes. För att studera detta används en kombination av kvantitativ och kvalitativ data. Kvantitativadata består av 141 observationer och kvalitativa data består av tre intervjuer, detta för attgenerera en djupare analys. Studiens resultat antyder att likviditeten generellt sett är god påmarknaden, dock indikerar även resultaten på en minskad likviditet. Resultaten i studien bidrar således till framtida forskning och diskussioner gällande regelverken och eventuella förbättringar för att marknaden ska bli mer transparent och likvid.

The real estate industry is a sector where the companies generally have a capital structure which is high leveraged. The financing – with the related terms – is therefore specifically of high importance for the companies in the sector. Traditionally, the way of obtain financing is by borrowing from the bank. Lately, due to new bank regulations, the banks have become more restrictive in their lending which have lead to a growth of other financing alternatives. For instance, the corporate bond market has grown rapidly. The development has increased the number who acts as lenders. Institutional investors are for an example an actor which invests in corporate bonds. Furthermore, the credit rating agencies plays indirectly an important role in the financing process since their credit ratings are a part in the process of determining the terms. The terms (such as the interest rate) of the financing are mainly based on the credit risk of the company. Since the topic is of big importance and the financing for real estate companies is changing, the main focus is to create further knowledge and understanding regarding the assessments of the credit risk by each actor.  The present thesis shows the credit risk assessment process by each actor where the banks and the credit rating agencies have the most clear framework. The banks and the agencies do a deep assessment which then is discussed in "committees" internally to reach the final assessment.  The investor’s combines own analyses with evaluating earlier credit analysis done by a credit rating agency or a financial advisor in a corporate bond issue.

After the recent financial crisis real estate companies in Sweden experienced difficulties obtaining funding for both new projects as well as refinancing of current investments. The situation in the credit market has since then improved but the refinancing problems that real estate companies experienced during this time has made firms aware of this risk and many companies now seek to diversify their funding sources. This thesis discusses the usage of corporate bonds as an alternative funding source to bank loans, ways of structuring issuances of both unsecured and secured bonds and the effects this have on both the issuing company as well as investors. Several Swedish real estate companies have issued unsecured corporate bonds in the past few years and just recently, in 2011, the first secured corporate bond issuance was made. Issuing corporate bonds in a cost effective way with competitive rates have however proven difficult for many companies in the past and 90 % of the debt funding of real estate companies still come from banks. The research concludes that corporate bonds are a viable alternative to bank loans today, since interest rates have become more competitive for these instruments. Presumably, these rates will decrease even more as the issuing processes and bond structures become more standardized - thereby creating a downward pressure on corporate bank loan rates and margins. It is concluded that larger real estate companies could benefit from being more active in the bond market. Possible benefits are e.g. reduction of the refinancing risk, being able to borrow capital for longer periods of time, increased bargaining power when negotiating new bank loan terms, access to a new pool of capital and opportunities to increase leverage. This study has shown that many support functions for the corporate bond market are underdeveloped, such as rating and stock exchange listing. Several actors in the market are currently working on improving these support functions, which hopefully will lead to effective industry standards that will allow for an expansion of the market. Based on the conducted research it is likely that the market for corporate bonds will continue to expand and develop. / Efter den senaste finanskrisen upplevde fastighetsbolagen i Sverige svårigheter att erhålla finansiering för nya projekt samt refinansiering av befintliga investeringar. Läget på kreditmarknaden har sedan dess förbättrats men de refinansieringsproblem som bolagen upplevde under denna tid har gjort företagen mer riskmedvetna, vilket ökat efterfrågan på att diversifiera finansieringskällorna. Denna uppsats behandlar användningen av företagsobligationer som en alternativ finansieringskälla till banklån och även olika sätt att strukturera emissioner för både icke säkerställda- och säkerställda obligationer samt effekterna av detta för både utfärdande bolag och investerare. Flertalet svenska fastighetsbolag har ställt ut icke-säkerställda företagsobligationer de senaste åren och nyligen, under 2011 emitterades den första säkerställda företagsobligationen. Att emittera företagsobligationer på ett kostnadseffektivt sätt med konkurrenskraftiga räntenivåer i förhållande till banklån har dock visat sig svårt för många fastighetsföretag och 90 % av lånefinansiering av dessa bolag kommer fortfarande från banker. Utifrån studien går det att dra slutsatsen att fastighetsobligationer är ett konkurrenskraftigt alternativ till banklån eftersom att räntorna på dessa instrument har sjunkit. Det är troligt att dessa räntor kommer sjunka ytterligare allt eftersom emitteringsstrukturer och processer blir mer standardiserade – vilket skapar press på bankerna att minska sina marginaler. De flesta stora fastighetsbolag skulle gynnas av att bli mer aktiva i obligationsmarknaden. Möjliga fördelar är t.ex. reducerad refinansieringsrisk, möjligheter att låna upp kapital under längre tidsperioder, ökad förhandlingsstyrka vid förhandlingar om nya lånevillkor för banklån, tillgång till en ny kapitalpool samt möjlighet till att höja belåningsgrader. I rapporten har det visat sig att många stödfunktioner till företagsobligationsmarknaden är underutvecklade, såsom rating och börsnotering. Flera aktörer på marknaden arbetar för närvarande med att förbättra dessa stödfunktioner vilket förhoppningsvis kommer leda till effektiva branschstandarder vilket möjliggör för expansion av marknaden. Baserat på vad som har framkommit i studien antas marknaden för företagsobligationer för fastighetsbolag att vidare utvecklas och expandera.

This dissertation studies three topics in financial economics. In the first chapter, "ESG Investing in Emerging Markets: Betting on Firm Fundamentals or Riding Investor Preferences?", we examine the relation between firms' environmental, social, and governance (ESG) practices and the pricing of corporate bonds in emerging markets, which is an important yet understudied market for ESG-related issues. Firms with different ESG scores can have different costs of capital, either because ESG scores help forecast future cash flows -- the "fundamental" channel -- or because investors have non-pecuniary preferences for high-ESG-score assets -- the "preference" channel. We identify the existence of a preference channel with a natural experiment -- the historical opening of the Chinese onshore bond market -- that leads to an increase in the proportion of international investors, who are more ESG-conscious. Consistent with theory, we find that the bond yield of companies with high ESG scores decreases more than that of companies with low ESG scores. By focusing on firms that also have bonds traded in the offshore market, which, as opposed to the onshore market, does not experience any change in regulation, we can control for issuer-time fixed effects in a triple difference design, hence reducing considerably the influence of the fundamental channel. In the second chapter, "Watch what they do, not what they say: Estimating regulatory costs from revealed preferences", we show that distortion in the size distribution of banks around regulatory thresholds can be used to identify costs of bank regulation. We build a structural model in which banks can strategically bunch their assets below regulatory thresholds to avoid regulations. The resulting distortion in the size distribution of banks reveals the magnitude of regulatory costs. Using U.S. bank data, we estimate the regulatory costs imposed by the Dodd-Frank Act. Although the estimated regulatory costs are substantial, they are significantly lower than those in self-reported estimates by banks. In the third chapter, "Fuzzy Bunching", we introduce a new fuzzy bunching approach that is robust to noise. The existing bunching approach identifies the extent of bunching from a sharp spike in the probability density function. In many finance settings, however, the sharp spike could be diffused by data noise. The key idea behind our fuzzy bunching estimator is to identify bunching from the area of a bulge in the cumulative distribution function. The fuzzy bunching approach also avoids density estimation, which makes it easy to implement in sparse data. We provide the theoretical foundation of this approach and illustrate the advantages by using simulated and real data.

Since the last financial crisis banks have been more restrictive about lending to companies, leading to companies seeking alternative funding. In this thesis we evaluate the Swedish market for property-related lending focusing on corporate bonds. We investigate if the view on corporate bonds differ between real estate companies and banks and also the development of the Swedish market for property-related lending. The thesis is based on interviews with people in the real estate- and bank industry as well as previous research. The Swedish bond market is undeveloped but it is going through a growing stage. In Swedish history banks have played an important roll developing the Swedish economy thus the Swedish financial market is bank dominated. Because of new bank regulations after the financial crisis, the price on loans went up leading to companies seeking alternative financing. This has led to an increase in corporate bonds issued by real estate companies. There has been an increase in the number of real estate companies issuing bonds as more investors, such as funds, have entered the bond market leading to an opportunity for smaller real estate companies to successfully issue bonds. / Efter senaste finanskrisen har banker blivit mer restriktiva med utlåning till företag, vilket har lett till att företag söker alternativ finansiering. I den här uppsatsen granskar vi den svenska marknaden för fastighetsrelaterad utlåning med fokus på obligationslån. Vi undersöker om synen på obligationslån skiljer sig mellan banker och fastighetsbolag samt hur den svenska kreditmarknaden för fastighetsrelaterad utlåning utvecklas. Uppsatsen bygger på intervjuer med personer i fastighets- och bankbranschen samt tidigare forskning om ämnet. Den svenska obligationsmarknaden är outvecklad men på stark tillväxt. Bankerna har historiskt sett haft en central roll i svenska näringslivet vilket har lett till att den svenska finansiella marknaden är bankdominerad. Efter finanskrisen har dock företag sökt alternativa finansieringsmöjligheter på grund av skärpta krav på banker som lett till dyrare lån för företagen. Detta har lett till att antal emitterade obligationer för företag inom fastighetsbranschen ökat. Fler och fler emittenter tar sig in på obligationsmarknaden i samband med att nya investerare, exempelvis kreditfonder, äntrat marknaden vilket har skapat möjlighet för även mindre fastighetsbolag att framgångsrikt emittera obligationer.

The purpose of this thesis is to define which variables affect the average credit spread on the Swedish bond market. The study is conducted via the help of Enter Fonder, who contributes with data and insight into the Swedish corporate bond market. Earlier research has put a lot of weight on the connection between default risk and credit spread. The exact effect is however still debated and it is unclear which variables best describe the default risk. A multilinear regression analysis is conducted, studying the effect on the average credit spread in the NOMX-index (NOMXCRSP) with the following predictor variables: Treasury rate, Predicted EPS amongst OMXS30-companies, Change in net asset under management (AUM) of Swedish corporate bonds, The average credit spread on two European and two American counterparts to NOMX, D/E-ratio and EBITDA-margin amongst OMXS30-companies and finally PMI-index from both the industry and service sector. The regression analysis is based on 89 data points which were aggregated into an equivalent interval on a monthly basis. The final results presents a model of seven variables consisting of all the four international indexes, treasury rate, predicted EPS and change in net AUM, and was able to explain around 87% of the variance in the data. / Syftet med denna avhandling är att identifiera och analysera den genomsnittliga kreditspreadens underliggande variabler på den svenska företagsobligationsmarknaden. Arbetsprocessen utförs tillsammans med fondbolaget Enter Fonder vilka bidrar med stöd i samband med datainsamlingen samt insikt om den svenska företagsobligationsmarknaden. Tidigare forskning inom ämnet har påpekat ett tydligt samband mellan ett företags likviditetsrisk och kreditspreaden på dess emitterade företagsobligationer. Likviditetsriskens exakta effekt på kreditspreaden samt hur denna risk lämpligast mäts, råder det dock oenighet om. En multipel linjär regressionsanalys genomförs där effekten på den genomsnittliga kreditspreaden i NOMX-indexet (NOMXCRSP) analyseras utifrån de underliggande variablerna: Statslåneränta, Estimerade EPS bland OMXS30-bolag, Förändringar i fondflöden på svenska företagsobligationer, Genomsnittlig kreditspread på två europeiska respektive amerikanska motsvarigheter till NOMX, D/E-ratio samt EBITDAmarginal bland OMXS30-bolag och slutligen PMI-siffror från både industri- samt tjänstesektorn. Regressionsanalysen baseras på totalt 89 datapunkter som aggregerats till likvärdig och månatlig basis. Den slutliga modellen består av totalt sju förklarande variabler där de fyra internationella indexen, Estimerad EPS, Statslåneräntan samt Förändringar i fondflöden utgör dessa och tycks förklara cirka 87 % av variansen i datasetet.