Though heavily criticized, the Kyoto Protocol has stood out as the key political tool in addressing climate change. However the only of its instruments (IET, JI, CDM) that allows industrialized and developing countries to cooperate towards mitigation of GHGs is CDM. The underlying assumption of forestry CDM is that forest plantations (afforestation/ reforestation) might help to remove carbon dioxide (the most representative GHG) emissions. This assumption takes for granted that forest plantations might compensate for the loss of natural forests. Therefore this alleged trade-off constitutes the very focus of this study. Due to high monetary price instability in brand new markets, like the carbon offset one, the analysis abstracts out money variables. Additionally, this engine helps overcome the trap set up by monetary prices as scarcity indicators. Thus, to go along with the bioeconomic analysis, a Gordon-Schaefer fishery-like model is applied to carbon forest sequestration in Rio Grande do Sul. This state is thought of bringing an interesting picture to the analysis of the claimed trade-off between natural and planted forests. This owes both to Rio Grande do Sul s unworthy deforestation rates and to its high natural-to-planted forest ratio. This land use assortment is thought of as if there were two countries or regions: a forest-rich one, where natural forests still remain, and a forest-poor one, where afforestation and/or reforestation takes place. Only physical units (MtC) are used to calculate exchange and interest rates as well as non-monetary prices. Next, a function that assigns the land use to natural and planted forests is arrived at. As such, it works as the emission removal demand. On the other hand, the emission supply function depends on the economic growth rates. The results show that, eventually, the sustainability of economic growth hinges on a region s or country s ecological situation namely, equilibrium, credit or debt. The economic and environmental advantages of each mitigation strategy CDM and natural forest conservation are crosschecked. A nearly 40-year long overshoot rate is, after all, estimated for the forest sector in Rio Grande do Sul. The estimates suggest that CDM might help relieve environmental stress only where ecological credit is reported. Where ecological debt is already on, CDM was found unable to compensate for conservation disregard. / Apesar das críticas que tem sofrido, o Protocolo de Kyoto tem-se constituído na principal ferramenta política para enfrentar a mudança climática. No entanto o único de seus instrumentos (comércio internacional de emissões, implementação conjunta e MDL) que prevê a cooperação entre países industrializados e em desenvolvimento para mitigar as emissões de GEE é o MDL. A modalidade florestal do MDL pressupõe que as plantações florestais (florestamento/reflorestamento) podem ajudar na remoção das emissões de dióxido de carbono (o GEE mais representativo). Esse pressuposto aceita que as plantações florestais podem compensar a perda de florestas naturais. Por isso esse proclamado trade-off constitui o foco principal deste estudo. Devido à grande instabilidade dos preços monetários em mercados incipientes como o do carbono, a análise abstém-se de utilizar variáveis monetárias. De resto, esse artifício ajuda a contornar certas dificuldades decorrentes da utilização dos preços monetários como indicadores de escassez. Assim, a análise bioeconômica prossegue com a aplicação, ao seqüestro florestal de carbono no Rio Grande do Sul, de um modelo similar ao de Gordon-Schaefer, tradicionalmente empregado na gestão da pesca. Por duas razões principais, o caso do Rio Grande do Sul contribui para a análise do suposto trade-off entre florestas naturais e plantadas. Em primeiro lugar, por não se registrarem taxas de desmatamento pronunciadas no estado. Em segundo lugar, pela elevada proporção de florestas naturais em relação às florestas plantadas em seu território. A repartição do uso do solo entre as florestas é utilizada para estudá-las como se representassem nações ou regiões diferentes: uma, rica em florestas, onde as formações florestais nativas permanecem em pé; outra, pobre em florestas, onde as plantações florestais se estabelecem através de florestamento e/ou reflorestamento. Apenas unidades físicas (MtC) são utilizadas para calcular taxas de câmbio, taxas de juro e preços não-monetários. A seguir, deduz-se uma função que reparte o uso da terra entre florestas naturais e plantadas. Essa função equivale à demanda por remoção de emissões. Sua contraparte é a função oferta de emissões, que depende das taxas de crescimento econômico. Os resultados mostram como, em última análise, a sustentação do crescimento econômico está condicionada à situação ecológica (dívida, crédito ou equilíbrio) de um país ou região. Em cada cenário, confrontam-se as vantagens econômicas e ambientais das estratégias do MDL e da conservação de florestas naturais. Além disso, estima-se uma taxa de overshoot para a atividade florestal no Rio Grande do Sul ao longo dos últimos 40 anos aproximadamente. As estimativas sugerem que o MDL pode aliviar pressões ambientais somente onde se registre crédito ecológico. Onde o endividamento ecológico já esteja em curso, o MDL não substitui a conservação.

Communicating science in three-dimensional (3D) multimedia is an immersive and interactive way to explore scientific processes (Signals and Communication Technology, 2019). Geovisualization is an emerging 3D multimedia method for visual analysis, synthesis, and presentation of geospatial, geologic, and geophysical data (MacEachren & Kraak, 2001). There is an identified need to develop scientific communication tools to further understand boreal peatland evolution, hydrogeology, ecology, and geochemistry (Bubier et al., 2003) since the International Union of Conservation of Nature asserts that peatlands are among the most valuable ecosystems on Earth, critical for preserving global biodiversity, providing drinking water, minimising flood risk, preventing wildfire, and mitigating climate change (Hama et al., 2000). The intention of this thesis is to communicate a novel approach to geovisualize boreal peatland architecture using Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) and Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR). GPR and LiDAR have been used to create 3D subsurface geovisualizations for archaeology (Kenady et al., 2018; Schultz & Martin, 2011) and resource geology (Corradini et al., 2020; Koyan & Tronicke, 2020) although application to peatland hydrogeology is uncommon. Point-source hydrogeological and geochemical data were integrated with 3D geological models to estimate carbon and nitrogen storage in an archetypal boreal peatland near Mariana Lakes, Alberta. Peatland geometry resembled a shallow lake basin with depths greatest in fens (>10 m) and thinnest in bogs (<2 m). Hydraulic conductivity was only a few meters per year and vertical groundwater movement was limited. Sequestered carbon and nutrients increased with depth. The average concentration of dissolved ammonium was 3 grams per cubic metre of peat (g/m3), 5g/m3of Total Kjeldahl Nitrogen, 60g/m3 of dissolved organic carbon and 200g/m3 of dissolved inorganic carbon. Tritium detection from atmospheric atomic weapons radionuclide fallout revealed that in deeper anaerobic peat (catotelm), tritium was absent, signifying groundwater was older than 50 years and not mixed with meteoric waters. Fen catotelm channels are likely acting as gravity-driven hydraulic traps (Tóth, 1999). / Graduate

<p>Methane (CH₄) is the second most powerful greenhouse gas (GHG) behind carbon dioxide (CO₂), and is able to trap a large amount of long-wave radiation, leading to surface warming. Carbon monoxide (CO) plays an important role in controlling the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere by reacting with OH radicals that affect atmospheric CH₄ dynamics. Terrestrial ecosystems play an important role in determining the amount of these gases into the atmosphere. However, global quantifications of CH₄ emissions from wetlands and its sinks from uplands, and CO exchanges between land and the atmosphere are still fraught with large uncertainties, presenting a big challenge to interpret complex atmospheric CH₄ dynamics in recent decades. In this dissertation, I apply modeling approaches to estimate the global CH₄ and CO exchanges between land ecosystems and the atmosphere and analyze how they respond to contemporary and future climate change.</p> <p>Firstly, I develop a process-based biogeochemistry model embedded in Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) to quantify the CO exchange between soils and the atmosphere at the global scale (Chapter 2). Parameterizations were conducted by using the CO <i>in situ</i> data for eleven representative ecosystem types. The model is then extrapolated to global terrestrial ecosystems. Globally soils act as a sink of atmospheric CO. Areas near the equator, Eastern US, Europe and eastern Asia will be the largest sink regions due to their optimum soil moisture and high temperature. The annual global soil net flux of atmospheric CO is primarily controlled by air temperature, soil temperature, SOC and atmospheric CO concentrations, while its monthly variation is mainly determined by air temperature, precipitation, soil temperature and soil moisture. </p> <p>Secondly, to better quantify the global CH₄ emissions from wetlands and their uncertainties, I revise, parameterize and verify a process-based biogeochemical model for methane for various wetland ecosystems (Chapter 3). The model is then extrapolated to the global scale to quantify the uncertainty induced from four different types of uncertainty sources including parameterization, wetland type distribution, wetland area distribution and meteorological input. Spatially, the northeast US and Amazon are two hotspots of CH₄ emissions, while consumption hotspots are in the eastern US and eastern China. The relationships between both wetland emissions and upland consumption and El Niño and La Niña events are analyzed. This study highlights the need for more in situ methane flux data, more accurate wetland type and area distribution information to better constrain the model uncertainty.</p> <p>Thirdly, to further constrain the global wetland CH₄ emissions, I develop a predictive model of CH₄ emissions using an artificial neural network (ANN) approach and available field observations of CH₄ fluxes (Chapter 4). Eleven explanatory variables including three transient climate variables (precipitation, air temperature and solar radiation) and eight static soil property variables are considered in developing the ANN models. The models are then extrapolated to the global scale to estimate monthly CH₄ emissions from 1979 to 2099. Significant interannual and seasonal variations of wetland CH₄ emissions exist in the past four decades, and the emissions in this period are most sensitive to variations in solar radiation and air temperature. This study reduced the uncertainty in global CH₄ emissions from wetlands and called for better characterizing variations of wetland areas and water table position and more long-term observations of CH₄ fluxes in tropical regions.</p> <p>Finally, in order to study a new pathway of CH₄ emissions from palm tree stem, I develop a two-dimensional diffusion model. The model is optimized using field data of methane emissions from palm tree stems (Chapter 5). The model is then extrapolated to Pastaza-Marañón foreland basin (PMFB) in Peru by using a process-based biogeochemical model. To our knowledge, this is among the first efforts to quantify regional CH₄ emissions through this pathway. The estimates can be improved by considering the effects of changes in temperature, precipitation and radiation and using long-period continuous flux observations. Regional and global estimates of CH₄ emissions through this pathway can be further constrained using more accurate palm swamp classification and spatial distribution data of palm trees at the global scale.</p>

<p>This thesis is a collection of three research articles to quantify carbon fluxes and isotopic signature changes across global terrestrial ecosystems. Chapter 2, the first article of this thesis, focuses on the importance of an under-estimated methane soil sink for contemporary and future methane budgets in the pan-Arctic region. Methane emissions from organic-rich soils in the Arctic have been extensively studied due to their potential to increase the atmospheric methane burden as permafrost thaws. However, this methane source might have been overestimated without considering high affinity methanotrophs (HAM, methane oxidizing bacteria) recently identified in Arctic mineral soils. From this study, we find that HAM dynamics double the upland methane sink (~5.5 TgCH₄yr^-1) north of 50°N in simulations from 2000 to 2016 by integrating the dynamics of HAM and methanogens into a biogeochemistry model that includes permafrost soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics. The increase is equivalent to at least half of the difference in net methane emissions estimated between process-based models and observation-based inversions, and the revised estimates better match site-level and regional observations. The new model projects double wetland methane emissions between 2017-2100 due to more accessible permafrost carbon. However, most of the increase in wetland emissions is offset by a concordant increase in the upland sink, leading to only an 18% increase in net methane emission (from 29 to 35 TgCH₄yr^-1). The projected net methane emissions may decrease further due to different physiological responses between HAM and methanogens in response to increasing temperature. This article was published in <i>Nature Climate Change</i> in March 2020.</p> <p>In Chapter 3, the second article of this thesis, I develop and validate the first biogeochemistry model to simulate carbon isotopic signatures (δ¹³C) of methane emitted from global wetlands, and examined the importance of the wetland carbon isotope map for studying the global methane cycle. I incorporated a carbon isotope-enabled module into an extant biogeochemistry model to mechanistically simulate the spatial and temporal variability of global wetland δ¹³C-CH₄. The new model explicitly considers isotopic fractionation during methane production, oxidation, and transport processes. I estimate a mean global wetland δ¹³C-CH₄ of -60.78‰ with its seasonal and inter-annual variability. I find that the new model matches field chamber observations 35% better in terms of root mean square estimates compared to an empirical static wetland δ¹³C-CH₄ map. The model also reasonably reproduces the regional heterogeneity of wetland δ¹³C-CH₄ in Alaska, consistent with vertical profiles of δ¹³C-CH₄ from NOAA aircraft measurements. Furthermore, I show that the latitudinal gradient of atmospheric δ¹³C-CH₄ simulated by a chemical transport model using the new wetland δ¹³C-CH₄ map reproduces the observed latitudinal gradient based on NOAA/INSTAAR global flask-air measurements. I believe this study is the first process-based biogeochemistry model to map the global distribution of wetland δ¹³C-CH₄, which will significantly help atmospheric chemistry transport models partition global methane emissions. This article is in preparation for submission to <i>Nature Geoscience</i>.</p> <p>Chapter 4 of this thesis, the third article, investigates the importance of leaf carbon allocation for seasonal leaf carbon isotopic signature changes and water use efficiency in temperate forests. Temperate deciduous trees remobilize stored carbon early in the growing season to produce new leaves and xylem vessels. The use of remobilized carbon for building leaf tissue dampens the link between environmental stomatal response and inferred intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE) using leaf carbon isotopic signatures (δ¹³C). So far, few studies consider carbon allocation processes in interpreting leaf δ¹³C signals. To understand effects of carbon allocation on δ¹³C and iWUE estimates, we analyzed and modeled the seasonal leaf δ¹³C of four temperate deciduous species (<i>Acer saccharum, Liriodendron tulipifera, Sassafras albidum, </i>and <i>Quercus alba</i>) and compared the iWUE estimates from different methods, species, and drought conditions. At the start of the growing season, leaf δ¹³C values were more enriched, due to remobilized carbon during leaf-out. The bias towards enriched leaf δ¹³C values explains the higher iWUE from leaf isotopic methods compared with iWUE from leaf gas exchange measurements. I further showed that the discrepancy of iWUE estimates between methods may be species-specific and drought sensitive. The use of δ¹³C of plant tissues as a proxy for stomatal response to environmental processes, through iWUE, is complicated due to carbon allocation and care must be taken when interpreting estimates to avoid proxy bias. This article is in review for publication in <i>New Phytologist</i>.</p> <p> </p>

Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI) / Deep injection of waste CO2 and fluids from regional energy plants into the St. Peter Formation of the Illinois Basin, could effectively provide long term deep geologic storage. This research aims to explore the viability of this proposed injection. There are some basic criteria that must be met to effectively store waste in a geologic reservoir. First, the reservoir must have sufficient porosity and permeability for both injectivity and for migration of the injected fluid through the reservoir. Second, the reservoir must be overlain by some form of impermeable seal or cap layer(s). Third, the reservoir should be sufficiently isolated from interaction with surface and near surface water. Finally, the formation must contain enough storage volume to handle significant amounts of injected material. Massive sandstone formations that host large saline aquifers have the potential to serve as high capacity storage sites. Much of the research targeting the potential suitability and storage capacity attributes of these formations has been promising, but reproducibility of the results has been less than ideal. Some of this variability has been attributed to petrological differences in the sandstone reservoirs that are not readily evident when studying the target formation over a geographically significant area. Based on the criteria, a promising candidate for injection and storage is the St. Peter Sandstone of the Illinois Basin. This study investigates the viability of liquefied CO2 storage within the St. Peter Sandstone on a micro scale. Initial porosity and permeability of the formation plug samples ranged from 16% to 19% and 26 to 981 millidarcies (mD), respectively. The wide difference in permeability is attributed to variations in strength of the cement, in this case quartz overgrowth in the sandstone. This preliminary evidence indicates that the storage capacity of the formation will remain constant or increase depending on injection location, suggesting that the St. Peter Formation will lend itself well to future storage.

Under high irradiation, a fourth state of matter named plasma can be obtained. Plasmas emit electromagnetic radiation that can be recorded in the form of spectra for spectroscopic elemental analysis. With the advent of lasers in the 1960s, spectroscopists realized that lasers could be used simultaneously as a source of energy and excitation to create plasmas. The use of a laser to ignite a plasma subsequently led to laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS), an optical emission spectroscopy capable of analyzing samples in various states (solids, liquids, gases) with minimal sample preparation, rapid feedback, and endowed with in situ capability. In this dissertation, studies of LIBS for multi-elemental analysis and geological applications are reported. LIBS was applied to cosmetic powders for elemental analysis, screening and classification based on the raw material used. Principal component analysis (PCA) and internal standardization were used. The intensity ratios of Mg/Si and Fe/Si observed in talcum powder show that these two ratios could be used as indicators of the potential presence of asbestos. The feasibility of LIBS for the analysis of gasification slags was investigated and results compared with those of inductively-coupled plasma−optical emission spectrometry (ICP-OES). The limits of detection for Al, Ca, Fe, Si and V were determined. The matrix effect was studied using an internal standard and PLS-R. Apart from V, prediction results were closed to those of ICP-OES with accuracy within 10%. Elemental characterization of outcrop geological samples from the Marcellus Shale Formation was also carried out. The matrix effect was substantially reduced. The limits of detection obtained for Si, Al, Ti, Mg, Ca and C were determined. The relative errors of LIBS measurements are in the range of 1.7 to 12.6%. Gate delay and laser pulse energy, have been investigated in view of quantitative analysis of variation of trace elements in a high-pressure environment. Optimization of these parameters permits obtaining underwater plasma emission of calcium with quantitative results on the order of 30 ppm within a certain limit of increased pressure. Monitoring the variation of the trace elements can predict changes in the chemical composition in carbon sequestration reservoir.

The method framework for quantifying the carbon emissions and removals from land, plants and products for cotton is developed in this study, which is feasible for most cotton supply chains. Collected defaults and suggested sources for required data inputs are provided. Current data gaps are defined, including the knowledge gap found in the storage time of cotton in the product pool, which requires further investigation in the future. Based on the quantification results of IKEA's case in 2019, there is a net 2.9 kg carbon stock increase per kg purchased cotton on average, equivalently offsetting 10.2% of global warming potential caused by cotton lint production emissions. Analysis results indicate that land-based carbon removals can be a cost-effective approach to achieve climate mitigation for cotton corporations. The amount of removed carbon can be greatly improved by avoiding emissions from land use change, adopting a higher level of conservation tillage to improve mineral soil carbon sequestration, and increasing carbon storage time in products to enlarge the climate benefit of cotton products carbon removals. Based on case study results, the carbon removals potential of global cotton production is estimated to be 5.4 Mt CO2-eq in 2019 and projected to reach 6.2 Mt CO2-eq in2029, which can mitigate over 0.01% of the GWP caused by the total worldwide anthropogenic emissions. Though this climate mitigation is relatively small, it breaks out the general cognition of agriculture carbon removals and provides us preliminary insight into cotton carbon sequestration capability and its potential.

In Valencia region (SE Spain), many post-fire communities are dominated by non-resprouting (seeder) species, because of the long history of land exploitation and subsequent abandonment during the last half of 20th century. These communities accumulate fine dry biomass and, therefore, can burn again easily. In fact, Mediterranean forests are suffering from an increase in wildfire frequency since the early 1970s. Wildfires shape the composition and functioning of Mediterranean ecosystems, but we do not know how these ecosystems respond to both the higher fire recurrence and shorter recovery times expected for future climatic scenarios. In this sense, Aleppo pine forest (Pinus halepensis) is one of the most fire affected vegetation of this type in the Mediterranean Basin and to know how it respond to fire is fundamental to design management plans. After fire, regeneration of this forest can be highly variable, and it can go from extremely dense tree stands (overstocked pine) to treeless shrublands dominated by seeder species. All these regenerated stands are fire prone with limited ability to deliver multiple ecosystem services. Although several management techniques are applied to redirect these post-fire ecosystems towards less vulnerable and more functional communities, we do not know yet which amongst them could serve to foster more diverse and multifunctional landscapes. Therefore, the general objective of this thesis is to investigate the functioning of these Mediterranean ecosystems as consequence of shifts in fire regime and forest management application, using different techniques, in different post-fire regenerated ecosystems (overstocked pine forests and dense shrublands). To do so, we calculate, within Mediterranean Pinus halepensis forests affected by wildfires, the supply of multiple ecosystem services (biodiversity conservation, carbon sequestration, disturbance regulation, food production, supporting services, and multifunctionality), through up to 25 aboveground and belowground attributes. Our main findings are (1) High fire recurrence and time since last fire interacted to determine ecosystem services but did not affect their synergies and trade-offs between them. Their combined effects reduced carbon sequestration and multifunctionality. Disturbance regulation diminished drastically with the first fire, with no effect of further fires. However, their effects dampened, and even became positive, for biodiversity conservation and food production services if provided enough time to recover. (2) Thinning in overstocked pine stands enhances ecosystem attributes associated with biodiversity conservation without compromising the provision of carbon sequestration. After 10 years, two levels of thinning, (600 and 1200 trees·ha-1), similarly affected ecosystem attributes, which suggest that 1200 trees·ha-1 suffice to enhance individual ecosystem attributes. (3) Clearing within dense shrubland dominated by seeder species enhances ecosystem attributes associated with biodiversity conservation without compromising the capacity of ecosystem to sequester carbon. (4) Plantation of resprouting species combined with thinning and clearing, in overstocked pine forests and dense shrublands respectively, can enhance the provision of ecosystem services of disturbance regulation, food production and ecosystem multifunctionality. (5) Prescribed burning reduces the amount of dead fuel, increases biodiversity conservation, and improves food production. However, these effects become negative, in addition to the decline in disturbance regulation and multifunctionality, if prescribed burning is applied frequently. (6) Combining different management activities can enhance the supply of multiple ecosystem services simultaneously by reducing the trade-offs in between them and therefore, establish multifunctional Mediterranean landscapes.

The human influence of global climate is an issue currently assessed in various mitigation strategies. Stockholm County has committed to becoming carbon neutral by 2040 and negative by 2045 according to the Paris agreement. The strategy includes cutting of various sectors emissions as well as compensating for remaining emissions with carbon sequestration methods. Accounting for ecosystems ability to sequester carbon at local level in green urban areas is an important in carbon offset efforts. It has emerged from previous research that the sequestration rate may differ depending on vegetation age and thus time passing, which is not assessed on a regional level, which is important for carbon offset efforts to accurately account for the sequestration potential in long-term mitigation strategies. This study therefore aims to fill the knowledge gap of how the temporal aspect affects the current sequestration potential and future predictions, as well as assessing how it can aid in reaching carbon neutrality by 2040. The study are thus aiming to answer the research questions (1) how the carbon sequestration potential of the existing green areas change over time in Stockholm County, (2) if additional measures need to be taken to preserve or increase carbon sequestration to maintain carbon neutrality until 2040 and (3) how the knowledge of sequestration dynamics aid in reaching a carbon neutral city by 2040. A weighing of which Corine Land Cover categories was performed and concluded in the including; discontinuous structures, green urban areas, forests and wetlands, due to their contribution to sequestration potential, estimated change through time, and relevance for Stockholm County. The spatial analysis was made based on calculations with information obtained from processing of obtained data on land cover and species distribution as well as scientific literature on sequestration rates of each vegetation across all life stages, where Net Ecosystem Production was the main measurement used. The estimated results were computed in a Geographic Information System to simulate and visualize the sequestration rates of current and future predictions of 2040 sequestration potential as well as locating areas of interest. The findings show that by including temporal aspects to the assessment of carbon sequestration potential in Stockholm County, the current and future sequestration potential increased from previous research estimations. The total current sequestration potential was 2,8 MtCO2-eq annually and the predictions were estimated to 3,3 MtCO2-eq per year in 2040. As the current emissions in Stockholm County are currently 6 MtCO2-eq per year, the natural sequestration potential provided by the green areas is compensating for 46% of the current emissions. As the estimated future emissions are 0,95 MtCO2-eq annually, the natural sequestration potential more than compensates for the emissions in the county, if the predicted emission reductions are realized. Although further measurements are not seemingly required to achieve carbon neutrality in 2040, the findings further locate areas and species where management practices or protection is beneficial to further add to the sequestration potential of Stockholm County. / Den mänskliga påverkan på det globala klimatet är ett problem som för närvarande bedöms i olika klimatåtgärder. Stockholms län har förbundit sig till ett mål att bli koldioxidneutralt till 2040 och koldioxidnegativt till 2045 enligt Parisavtalets överenskommelser. Strategin innefattar att minska utsläppen från olika sektorer samt att kompensera de återstående utsläppen med olika metoder för koldioxidlagring. Ekosystemens förmåga att binda kol på lokal nivå i gröna stadsområden är en viktig del av ansträngningarna för att kompensera för utsläppen. Det har varit uppenbart från tidigare forskning att potentialen av koldioxidlagring kan skilja sig åt beroende på vegetationens ålder samt passerande tid, även om aktuell forskning inte omfattar frågan på regional nivå, vilket är viktigt för insatser som omfattar koldioxidkompensation så att lagringspotentialen kan redovisas korrekt i de långsiktiga klimatåtgärderna. Denna studie syftar därför till att fylla kunskapsluckan gällande hur den tidsmässiga aspekten påverkar den befintliga lagringspotentialen och framtida prognoser samt hur det kan bidra till att nå koldioxidneutralitet fram till 2040. Studien avser därmed till att svara på forskningsfrågorna (1) hur kolbindningspotentialen för de befintliga grönområdena förändras över tid i Stockholms län, (2) ifall ytterligare åtgärder behöver vidtas för att bevara eller öka koldioxidbindningen för att uppnå eller bibehålla koldioxidneutralitet fram till 2040 och (3) hur kunskapen om koldioxidlagringsdynamiken underlättar för att nå en koldioxidneutral region år 2040. En avvägning av vilka Corina marktäckeskategorier utfördes och resulterade i inkludering av; diskontinuerliga strukturer, gröna stadsområden, skogar och våtmarker, där koldynamiken och omfattningen av lagringspotentialen var relevant för Stockholmsregionen. Den rumsliga analysen gjordes baserad på beräkningar med information erhållen genom bearbetning av införskaffad data om marktäcke och artfördelning samt vetenskaplig litteratur om kolbindningshastighet för varje vegetation över alla livsstadier, där Net Ecosystem Production var det huvudsakliga måttet. De uppskattade resultaten beräknades i ett Geografiskt Informationssystem för att simulera och visualisera lagringshastigheten för nuvarande och framtida förutsägelser om sekvestreringspotentialen år 2040 samt att lokalisera intressanta. Resultaten visar att genom att inkludera tidsmässiga aspekter i bedömningen av kolbindningspotentialen i Stockholms län ökade den nuvarande och framtida bindningspotentialen från tidigare forsknings uppskattningar. Den totala nuvarande lagringspotentialen var 2,8 MtCO2-ekv årligen och de framtida prognoserna uppskattades till 3,3 MtCO2-ekv årligen år 2040. Eftersom de nuvarande utsläppen i Stockholms län för närvarande är 6 MtCO2-ekv årligen, kunde man se att den naturliga lagringspotentialen som grönområdena avsåg, kompenserar för 46 % av de nuvarande utsläppen. Eftersom de beräknade framtida utsläppen är 0,95 MtCO2-ekv per år, mer än kompenserar de gröna områdena för de utsläpp som sker i länet, om den förutsedda reduceringen av utsläppen sker. Även om ytterligare mätningar inte tycks behövas för att uppnå koldioxidneutralitet till 2040, lokaliseras ytterligare områden samt arter i resultatet där förvaltning eller skydd är fördelaktiga för att ytterligare förbättra lagringspotentialen i Stockholms län.

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