Os Bancos Centrais executam a primordial função de buscar a estabilidade monetária em seus respectivos países. Além disto, são também responsáveis pela condução e gerenciamento do sistema de pagamentos e pela condição de prestamista de última instância. As atividades de fiscalização do sistema bancário, no entanto, podem ou não ser de incumbência das autoridades monetárias. Percebe-se, ao longo das décadas mais recentes, que alguns países vêm promovendo mudanças em suas estruturas de alocação das áreas de supervisão, tanto no sentido de delegar esta responsabilidade a uma agência quanto na possibilidade de integrar a supervisão bancária com outras áreas, tais como a de seguros e a do mercado de capitais e títulos. Estas questões, como a de deixar ou não a supervisão inserida dentro dos bancos centrais, e a da sua integração ou não com outras áreas, têm proporcionado diversos debates, tendo sido apontados tanto pontos favoráveis quanto desfavoráveis, em cada uma das situações propostas. No entanto, estes discursos são ainda incipientes, e tal análise ainda carece de novas reflexões. Foi a dificuldade teórica em se definir um modelo de maior eficiência institucional para os países que serviu como ponto de partida e incentivo para o presente estudo. Desta forma, o trabalho aqui apresentado teve como objetivo principal o de identificar características comuns entre alguns dos países que adotam modelos similares. Com base em testes econométricos, foram buscadas associações por meio de probabilidades. Os demais objetivos foram os de mostrar e discutir as experiências de alguns destes países, bem como evidências empíricas encontradas até o presente momento relacionadas ao tema principal deste trabalho. Além disto, a pesquisa descrita também procurou levantar as vantagens e as desvantagens de cada modelo. Os resultados encontrados mostraram haver relação entre os modelos adotados e os poderes do órgão supervisor, os poderes da auditoria externa, a localização geográfica, os índices de inflação, de renda, de nível de consolidação da supervisão financeira, de envolvimento do banco central no processo de supervisão e avaliação do sistema legal. Foi possível concluir que, seja qual for o modelo escolhido, a autoridade monetária deve continuar com alguma forma de participação no processo, seja de forma direta ou indireta, através de canais de comunicação abertos entre esta e os demais órgãos ou agências envolvidos. Isto se deve, principalmente, à ligação estreita que existe entre a solidez do sistema financeiro e a estabilidade monetária de um país, bem como pelo fato das funções de prestamista de última instância e de responsável pelos sistemas de pagamento permanecerem inseridas dentro dos bancos centrais. / Central Banks perform as their main function the search for monetary stability in their respective countries. Besides, they are also responsible for conducting and managing the national payments systems as well as for the condition of lender of last resort. The activities of banking supervision, however, may fall or not under the responsibility of Central Banks. One can realize, along the last decades, that some countries have been implementing some changes in their institutional allocation of banking supervision, either by delegating this responsibility to an agency (external to Central Bank) or by integrating banking supervision with different areas, such as supervision of insurance companies and capital/securities markets. Questions such as “to leave or not banking supervision under the responsibility of central banks?” or “to integrate or not banking supervision with different areas?” have generated several debates, and different aspects, favourable or not, have been pointed out, in each of the proposed situations. However, those discussions are still incipient, and this analysis is still lacking further reflection. It was exactly the theoretical challenge to define a model which should present a bigger institutional efficiency for different countries that has served both as a starting point and as a motivation for the present study. This way, the main goal of the present work was to identify some characteristics in common among some of the countries which have adopted similar models. Based in econometric tests, some associations between selected variables were searched, by means of probabilities estimation. The remainder objectives of the present research are described as follows: to present and to discuss the related experiences of a few selected countries which had adopted some of the analyzed models; to show some empirical evidences which are associated to the same analysis. Moreover, the here described research was also directed to collect the advantages and disadvantages that could be found out in each model. The achieved results pointed out to the existence of a relationship between the adopted model and the powers that the supervisory agency may possess; the powers of external auditing; geographical localization; income indexes; inflation indexes; indexes of level of consolidation of financial supervision; indexes to estimate the involvement of a central bank in the banking supervision process; and finally, an evaluation of the respective national legal system. It was also possible to conclude that, whatever is the selected model, the monetary authority should maintain some sort of participation in this process, either directly or indirectly; by means of communication channels that must be established between this authority and the remainder involved hierarchical structures or agencies. This conclusion is chiefly due to the close link that exists between the strength of a financial system and the monetary stability of a country, as well as to the fact that the functions of lender of last resort and the responsibility for the national payments system are still being under the responsibility of central banks.

Cette thèse en politique économique internationale analyse à travers 4 chapitres les facteurs influençant la prise de décision en se focalisant sur les trajectoires des décideurs. Le premier chapitre montre que les membres du Conseil d’Administration (CA) du Fonds Monétaire International (FMI) ont un avantage considérable en matière de prêt et de remboursement sur les autres membres du FMI à travers des réseaux informels développés par leur simple présence aux réunions de CA du FMI à Washington DC. Le second chapitre met l’accent sur les trajectoires de carrière des membres du CA du FMI avant et après leur poste au sein de cette institution et comment ces trajectoires influent les prêts et les modalités de remboursement des pays emprunteurs. Dans un troisième chapitre, nous cherchons à savoir si les années de récession connues par les Présidents des Banques Centrales des pays occidentaux sont en mesure d’influencer leur gestion de ces institutions. Enfin, le quatrième chapitre propose un modèle d’économie politique des réformes en montrant l’importance des syndicats des travailleurs ainsi que des transferts de richesse de la part des gouvernements vers les populations, sur la mise en œuvre des réformes au sein des pays de l’OCDE. Cette thèse montre qu’à l’instar des décideurs nationaux qui ont tendance à influencer directement la vie économique des pays, les décideurs internationaux de par leurs histoires, leurs identités et leurs expériences de vie, peuvent également influencer la sphère économique des pays. / This thesis in international political economy analyses factors influencing the decision-taking focusing on the trajectories of policy-makers across 4 chapters. The first chapter shows that the IMF’s Executive Board (EB) members have a considerable advantage on other IMF members in terms of loans and repayments through informal networks developed by their simple presence on the IMF’s EB at Washington DC. The second chapter focuses on the IMF’s EB career trajectories before and after their position, and how these trajectories influence loans and repayment modalities of borrowing countries. In a third chapter, we want to know in what extend central bankers’ recession experiences tend to lead them to decrease the interest rates of central banks. Finally, the fourth chapter proposes a model of political economy of reforms showing the importance of unions and transfers from governments to populations concerning the implementation of reforms in OECD countries. This thesis shows that, as national policy-makers which tend to directly influence the economic life, international policy-makers, through their stories, identities and life experiences, can also influence the economic sphere of countries.

The current monetary policy has been a widely discussed topic. The main focus has been given to the inflation targeting and whether it is suitable in situations with low inflation and low interests rates. The present study is addressing the monetary policy regimes and evolution of targeting aggregates under inflation targeting. The goal of my thesis is to verify whether the interests rates close to technical zero don t cause systematically larger deviations of forecasts of inflation from reality. Having compared most monetary regimes, their advantages and disadvantages in the current situation, I have come to the conclusion that although inflation targeting is not absolutely perfect, the shortcomings and the pitfalls of other regimes are considerably less favourable. Although the inflation deviation is increasing, this is most likely attributable to the error of model and the overtly optimistic forecast of the Czech National Bank than to the possibility that the errors directly relate to the level of interests rates.

Quantitative easing (QE) is an unconventional monetary policy tool used by central banks to stimulate the economy in times when conventional monetary policy is not sufficient. In the wake of covid-19, central banks around the world has announced significant increases in their QE-programs. This research paper aims to find out whether quantitative easing has any statistically significant effect on the stock prices of the Swedish real estate market. Moreover, it aims to produce an indication of the direction of the real estate stock prices over the year of 2020. To those ends, a combination of statistical analysis and economic theory is used. We estimate three Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models. For a chosen model, an out-of-sample prediction is carried out as a way to model future stock price movements. We conclude that quantitative easing indeed has a statistically significant effect on real estate stock prices in Sweden. Furthermore, we estimate that stock prices in the real estate sector will see negative movements during the second and third quarter of 2020, followed by a return to positives during the fourth quarter. / Kvantitativa lättnader (QE) är ett redskap inom okonventionell penningpolitik som används av centralbanker för att stimulera ekonomin när konventionella metoder inte är tillräckliga. I kölvattnet av covid-19 så har centralbanker runt om i världen meddelat kraftiga ökningar i deras program för kvantitativa lättnader. Den här uppsatsen syftar till att ta reda på om kvantitativa lättnader har någon statistiskt signifikant påverkan på priserna för fastighetsaktier som handlas på öppen marknad i Sverige. Därutöver syftar den till att ge en anvisning kring i vilken riktning priserna på dessa aktier kommer röra sig under 2020. För dessa ändamål används en kombination av statistisk analys och ekonomisk teori. Vi estimerar tre Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeller. För en av modellerna görs en out-of-sample prediktion för att modellera framtida prisrörelser på aktiemarknaden. Utifrån våra modeller och analys kan vi konstatera att kvantitativa lättnader har en effekt på priserna för fastighetsaktier. Vidare så estimerar vi att priserna på fastighetsaktier kommer röra sig i en negativ riktning under andra och tredje kvartalet 2020, för att sedan svänga tillbaka till positiva rörelser under fjärde kvartalet.

Dominant market theories analyze markets as ahistorical entities without the need for professional groups that manage crucial functions within them. This thesis, in contrast, approaches markets as historical systems that develop over time and that can be constituted in many different ways because of different historical trajectories. Different professional groups managing market routines, further, are seen as a crucial part of markets. Two concepts are introduced: “market architecture”, the specific way a market is constituted at a given time; and “market technocrats”, the seemingly disinterested third party functionaries that manage routines in markets and advocate changes in market architecture. The thesis argues that market technocrats exist because of uncertainty and lack of trust between market actors, and that they are an important part of how market architectures develop over time. It presents an analytical framework for understanding market technocrats and how they interact with and develop markets. Four different aspects of market technocrats are explored: the process of establishing market technocrats in market routines; the capture of the authority of market technocrats by other market actors; the expansionistic behavior of market technocrats; and the way changes in economic theory, as an important part of how economists with technocratic authority advocate market change, can help to explain changes in markets. These aspects are explored through four empirical papers: The Market Technocracy of Import Substitution: The Role of Asymmetric Information and The Swedish Seed Association 1880–1935; Limits of Market Technocracy: Swedish Fertilizer Research and the Crisis of Objectivity 1945–1960; Central Banks, and the Pursuit of Influence, Prestige, and Legitimacy: The Creation of the Nobel Memorial Prize; and From Market Engineering to Institutional Engineering: Reform Economics in Sweden 1950–2000. The results of the papers form the basis of a hypothetical narrative of how the role of market technocrats has changed during the 20th century. This provides a roadmap for further research in the development of markets and the role of market technocrats.

Hereby presented Master Thesis deals with an analysis of preparedness of the Russian monetary policy for adoption of inflation-targeting regime. We define the impact of different factors on the level of inflation and consequently their importance in the process of predicting inflation in the period from January 2006 to September 2012 in the Russian Federation. The selection of the factors is based on theory and on the examination of the Russian monetary policy environment, taking into account the credibility, transparency and accountability of the monetary institutions and the financial sector and real economy specifications. The analysis of interconnections among the factors is based on a vector autoregressive regression model VAR(4) as well as on Granger causality test and impulse-response analysis. Our results indicate that the major role in inflation formation among the chosen variables, the exchange rate prevailed in the observed period and the interest rate gained in importance to certain extent. Thus the Russian Central Bank has proceeded to prepare the monetary policy rule for the adoption of inflation-targeting regime. Nevertheless, building more sound monetary and financial institutions, successful implementation of flexible exchange rate and abandoning exchange rate targeting, as...

Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-05T18:57:21Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 30 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Este trabalho investiga a função de reação de política monetária, seguindo a abordagem da Regra de Taylor para avaliar o desempenho dessa política, conduzida pela Reserva Federal (FED), pelo Banco do Japão (BOJ) e pelo Banco Central Europeu (ECB), durante o período selecionado para a pesquisa. Considerou-se para a análise, tanto para o FED como para o BOJ, o período de janeiro de 1990 até junho de 2008; enquanto que para o ECB, em virtude da constituição da Área do euro, a análise abrange janeiro de 1998 a junho de 2008. Inicialmente, é realizada a revisão da literatura sobre discricionariedade versus regras de política monetária, em que são apresentados alguns resultados empíricos sobre o uso de regras na condução da política monetária. Num segundo momento, faz-se uma abordagem sobre como estão estruturados os bancos centrais e os sistemas de pagamentos dos países selecionados. Além disso, traçam-se considerações sobre o regime monetário e cambial de cada economia e faz-se também uma breve retrospectiva da c / This work investigates the function of reaction of monetary policy following the approach of the Taylor Rule to evaluate the performance of this policy, lead for the Federal Reserve (FED), for the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and for European Central Bank (ECB), during the period selected for the research. It was considered for the analysis, as much for the FED how much for the BOJ, the period of January 1990 until June 2008; whereas for the ECB, in virtue of the constitution of the Euro Area, the analysis encloses January 1998 until June 2008. Initially, the revision of literature on discretion versus rules of monetary policy is made, where some empirical results on the use of rules in the conduction of the monetary policy are presented. At as a moment, approach becomes on as the central banks and the systems of payments of the selected countries are structuralized. Moreover, considerations are traced on the monetary and exchange regimen of each economy and become one brief retrospective of the management of the mone

Submitted by Mariana Dornelles Vargas (marianadv) on 2015-06-15T14:27:47Z No. of bitstreams: 1 efeitos_mecanismos.pdf: 1238336 bytes, checksum: d005a9b54ec8b6cb1f09c6a122961c17 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-06-15T14:27:47Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 efeitos_mecanismos.pdf: 1238336 bytes, checksum: d005a9b54ec8b6cb1f09c6a122961c17 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-01-12 / CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / O objetivo desse estudo é investigar de que forma ocorrem os efeitos de transmissão de política monetária no Brasil e no Chile. Para esse fim, é utilizado um modelo econométrico VEC (vector error correction), no período do primeiro trimestre de 1995 até o último de 2010 para o modelo brasileiro de do primeiro trimestre de 2000 até o primeiro de 2011 no Chile. Inicialmente, a revisão teórica e empírica faz uma discussão acerca do tema. Subsequentemente, são analisados alguns fatos estilizados sobre as políticas monetárias do Brasil e do Chile e outras variáveis macroeconômicas. Os principais resultados encontrados por meio do modelo econométrico mostraram que a política monetária brasileira pode ser capaz de influenciar a produção industrial no longo prazo, e ocorre um trade-off entre elevação na atividade econômica e controle da inflação. Adicionalmente, a manutenção da taxa de juros num patamar alto pode implicar em queda da atividade econômica, elevação da dívida pública sobre o PIB e valorização cambial, que possui efeito de controlar a inflação, mas reduz a atividade industrial. Entretanto, a alta nos juros pode ser influenciada por aumentos da dívida pública e no risco. A taxa de câmbio mostrou-se como um canal relevante para a transmissão de política monetária, no entanto, sem efeitos no longo prazo. No Chile, a política monetária pareceu agir passivamente, com a produção industrial sendo o canal mais relevante para a desaceleração da inflação. A taxa de câmbio não demonstrou desempenhar um papel relevante na transmissão da política monetária. Por sua vez, um aumento na taxa de juros pareceu ter maior sensibilidade na queda na atividade industrial em relação à desaceleração da inflação, com efeito de longo prazo. A pouca influência dos riscos na taxa de juros pode indicar que o Banco Central chileno consegue manter essa variável num patamar baixo, otimizando sua atuação. / The aim of this study is to investigate how monetary policies are transmitted and their effects in Brazil and Chile. For this purpose, a VEC (vector error correction) model is applied to data running from the first quarter of 1995 to the fourth quarter of 2010 for Brazil and from the first quarter of 2000 to the first of 2011 in Chilean case. Initially, in the review, a theoretical and empirical discussion of the theme is performed. Subsequently, some stylized facts about the monetary policies of Brazil and Chile and other macroeconomic variables for these countries are analyzed. The main results found by the econometric model are that the Brazilian monetary policy may be able to influence economic activity in the long run, and that is a trade-off between increased industrial production and inflation control. Additionally, keeping interest rates at a high level can result in an economic activity downturn, a rising public debt to GDP ratio and an exchange rate appreciation, which has the effect of controlling inflation, but reduces industrial activity. However, the rise in interest rates may be influenced by increases in public debt and risk. The exchange rate showed up as a relevant channel for the transmission of monetary policy, although, not exhibiting long run effects. In Chile, monetary policy seemed to act passively, with industrial production being the most important channel for the deceleration of inflation. The exchange rate has not demonstrated an important role in monetary policy transmission. Furthermore, an increase in interest rates seemed to have greater sensitivity in the fall in industrial activity in relation to the deceleration of inflation, and a long run effect. The low influence of risks in the interest rate may indicate that the Chilean Central Bank can keep this variable in a low base, optimizing its performance.

Throughout history, at multiple times, countries have implemented central banking systems by monopolizing currencies. The following study looks at key indicators such as bond yields, central bank legislation and free banking era legislation to identify whether changes were due to economic necessity or political opportunism on the part of politicians. The study will analyze 5 countries, most notably Australia, Sweden, Switzerland, United States and Scotland, all of which have had a free banking period and can shed some light on the topic of transition from a free banking system to a centralized monopoly. The comparison draws light on the diverse problems and challenges that arose, most notably finding that in the majority of cases, government intervention caused the banking system to become unstable and help governments to engage in large debt financing under the central banking era. Keywords: Free Banking; Rent-Seeking; Comparative Banking Systems; Central Banks; Political Economy of Monetary Institutions JEL Classification: B53, E02, E42, E44, F59, N13, N14, N11, N12, N21, N22, N23, N24

Common monetary policy, according to its nature and established principles of formation and implementation, is unique policy of the Community. Its importance for the EU existence requires clearly divided competence in its sphere. Regardless exclusive monetary policy competence of the Community, euro-zone members obtained a wide range of opportunities for active participation in creation, formation and implementation of monetary policy, both through the institutional system and through the political interest influence.