Denna uppsats försöker identifiera faktorer som förklarar varför cykelpendlingen till och från Stockholms innerstad har ökat mellan 1980 och 2020. Vi bildar och väljer ut tre linjära regressionsmodellerna vilka vi anser vara de bästa modellerna utifrån ett flertal urvalskriterier. Resultaten visar att alla inkluderade variabler är signifikanta i respektive modell. Våra resultat, vilka är i linje med tidigare forskning, visar vidare följande: (a) antalet cykelpendlingsresor har ett positivt samband med cykelinfrastrukturkostnader, vilket tyder på att bättre cykelinfrastruktur gör att fler väljer cykeln till jobbet; (b) antalet cykelpendlingsresor har ett positivt samband med befolkningsstorleken; (c) antalet cykelpendlingsresor har ett positivt samband med trängselskatten, vilket tyder på att en överföring sker där en del bilister byter till cykelpendling p.g.a. trängselskatt; (d) antalet cykelpendlingsresor har ett negativt samband med BNP per capita. Sammanfattningsvis indikerar resultaten att ett flertal faktorer har påverkat antalet cykelpendlingsresor till och från Stockholms innerstad mellan 1980 och 2020. / This thesis attempts to identify factors that explain why bicycle commuting in and out of Stockholm City Centre has increased between the years 1980 and 2020. We create and select three linear regression models, which we consider to be the best models based on several selection criteria. Our results show that the included variables in each respective model are significant. Our results, which are in line with previous findings in the literature, moreover, show the following: (a) the number of bicycle commuting trips is positively associated with bicycle infrastructure costs, which indicates that better bicycle infrastructure leads to more people bicycling to work; (b) the number of bicycle commuting trips is positively associated with population size; (c) the number of bicycle commuting trips is positively associated with the congestion tax, which indicates that a modal shift takes place where some motorists switch to bicycle commuting because of the congestion tax; (d) the number of bicycle commuting trips is negatively associated with GDP per capita. In summary, the results indicate that several factors have affected the number of commuting trips by bicycle in and out of Stockholm City Centre between 1980 and 2020.

The following doctoral thesis, sponsored by Autostrada del Brennero S.p.A. (an Italian highway concession company in charge of managing toll roads) consists on empirical essays at the crossroad between transport and regional economics. They focus on different aspects that directly involve motorways (i.e, safety, intermodality, and commuting dynamics) and they are aimed at providing further evidences that transport institutions and policy makers could take into account throughout their decision-making processes. The first chapter presents a research article that seeks to determine the impact of an average speed enforcement system in reducing highway accidents. Indeed, at the end of 2005, Autostrade per l'Italia (ASPI) and the Italian traffic police progressively deployed along the Italian tolled motorway network an average speed enforcement system, named Safety Tutor, able to determine the average speed of vehicles over a long section to encourage drivers to comply with speed limits and improve safety. To empirically test the extent to which Safety Tutor led to a reduction in both total and fatal accidents on Italian highways during the period of 2001-2017, we carried out a generalized difference-in-differences estimation using a unique panel dataset that exploits the heterogeneous accident data within all tolled motorway sectors in a quasi-experimental setting. To deal with the potential endogeneity of the non-random placement of Safety Tutor sites, we utilized an instrumental variable strategy by using the network of motorway sectors managed by ASPI and its controlled concessionaires from 2005 onwards (i.e., when the technology was available) as an instrument to predict Safety Tutor adoption. We found that a 10% increase in Safety Tutor coverage led to an average reduction in total accidents of 3.9%, whereas there is no evidence of a significant causal effect of Safety Tutor in reducing fatal accidents. The second chapter presents a research article that seeks to investigate the inter-modal competition between motorway and high-speed rail (HSR) services, as the extent to which HSR demand could be the result of a modal shift from motorways is a relevant issue in any cost-benefit analysis of HSR investments. Indeed, the development of HSR has had a notable impact on modal market shares on the routes on which its services have been implemented. To analyse whether the HSR expansion in Italy has led to a modal shift from motorway to HSR, we empirically test i) whether HSR openings adjacent to motorway sectors have reduced the total km travelled by light vehicles on these sectors during the period 2001-2017; and ii) whether this reduction has been persistent or even more evident after the opening of on-track competition between two HSR operators. To do so, we carried out a generalized difference-in-differences estimation, using a unique panel dataset that exploits the heterogeneous traffic data within all tolled motorway sectors in a quasi-experimental setting. Our findings reveal that neither HSR openings nor the opening of on-track competition led to a modal shift from motorway to HSR services, as the two transport modes are non-competing. Conversely, HSR expansion had a slightly positive impact on motorway traffic. The third chapter presents a data article in a “data in brief” format that describes a dataset on municipality-to-municipality commuting patterns in Italy over the 1991, 2001, and 2011 censuses aimed at investigating the role of transport infrastructures and the structural transformation of the economy on worker mobility. At this purpose, a core origin-destination dataset on the number of workers moving between municipalities, or within the same municipality, has been linked with further municipality covariates on jobs location, population, and the distances in meters and journey times in minutes between all municipalities. Even though these data are freely available online, they require some tedious work to organize. Therefore, this data article brings the necessary information together and makes the dataset available on request. The dataset offers applied researchers an alternative source of information to shed new lights on the changing shape of urban systems by analysing i) the impact of infrastructural endowment in providing better job accessibility, or ii) the connection between increasing commuting patterns and the structural transformation of the economy due to the tertiarization process from 1991 to 2011.

In the first chapter of this dissertation, I exploit the Covid-19 pandemic and associated government restrictions as a natural experiment in order to study the resilience of businesses in the United States. I use a border-county identification strategy with data on government restrictions, employment and open small businesses, in order to assess the resilience of small businesses in the United States. In my main results, I find negative impacts of stay-at-home orders on the number of open small merchants. In particular, shutdowns of businesses accelerated 8 weeks after imposition of a stay-at-home order, suggesting that many businesses were only resilient enough to handle adverse conditions for 8 weeks. On average, a county with a stay-at-home order experienced an additional 1.51 percentage points loss in the number of open small businesses, relative to January 2020, 8 weeks later compared to a neighboring county that did not have a stay-at-home order. Firms were quicker to resort to layoffs. On average a county with an active stay at home order in a month experienced an additional 1.19 percentage point loss in employment, relative to January 2020, the following month compared to a neighbor that did not have a stay-at-home order the previous month. My results suggest that in future scenarios where governments consider enacting similar restrictions further aid is needed for businesses in order to help them stay afloat. In particular, more assistance should be delivered to businesses within two months from the enacting of the order. In the second chapter of this dissertation, I study economic spillovers in the context of theCovid-19 associated government restrictions. I use a detailed geolocation dataset to construct data on the number of visitors per-capita between neighboring counties in the early stages of the pandemic, which I use as a proxy for economic spillovers. I employ a similar border-county identification strategy as in the first chapter to identify the causal effect of stay-at-home orders on inter-county movement. Additionally, I provide evidence for an assumption used in chapter one by examining if there are reduced spillovers in county-pairs that lie in the different commute zones. I find that stay-at-home orders caused reductions in inter-county visits in both directions in a county-pair. That is, I find a decrease in travel from the county without a stay-at-home order to the county with one, as well as a decrease in the opposite direction. On average, a county that does not have stay-at-home order will receive 408 fewer weekly visitors from their neighboring county that has a stay-at-home order. I also examine the effect of stay-at-home orders on the ratio of travel between the two directions in order to find evidence of a net spillover effect between the two counties and fail to find evidence of a net spillover effect. I also find that spillover effects are indeed reduced in neighbor county-pairs where the two counties are in different commute zones. The results of this paper imply that residents in counties with stay-at-home orders decreased travel to their neighboring counties even when those counties did not issue their own orders. In future situations where policy makers need to consider similar restrictions, they should focus on acting more quickly and not be concerned if neighboring counties are not cooperative. In the third chapter of this dissertation, I test the predictions of career concerns models by studying Major League Baseball umpires. Major League Baseball games can be dramatically shaped by minor lapses in judgement from the umpires officiating the game. Due to the indefinite length a game may have, this can include having the game shaped in a way that ends it faster. I study whether evidence for the career concerns model can be found in baseball umpires. A career concerns model would suggest that older umpires, whose careers and reputations are much more established than younger ones, would be more inclined to improperly make judgements that favor the end of the game in extra innings. I use data on MLB umpires and extra-innings games from the 2010-2018 seasons to conduct my empirical analysis and use a linear probability model to isolate the impact of the umpires’ tenure on the probability they make a “bad call.” I find evidence supporting the career concerns hypothesis and that the probability that an umpire makes a bad call that shortens the length of the game and allows them to go home increases with their tenure. I show that these results are likely driven by career concerns, rather than carelessness, by showing their error rate does not increase with tenure in situations where it would not reduce their workload.

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No description available.

Encouraging a more sustainable commuter mode shift and improving urban transportation systems have the potential to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs), a major contributor to climate change. Replacing some single-occupancy vehicle (SOV) trips with alternative modes of transportation, such as public transit, walking, or bicycling, represents one approach to begin reducing transportation-related emissions. Collectively, these shifts in transportation patterns would help to reduce the negative social, economic, and environmental costs associated with high rates of personal vehicle use. Employer-provided benefits programs have the potential to influence commuter behavior by making sustainable, alternative commuting choices a more convenient and economically feasible option. In addition, the implementation of these programs can have broader benefits such as helping to achieve municipal and regional sustainability goals and improving community members’ physical health and quality of life. This study applies qualitative and quantitative analysis to investigate employee commuting behavior in response to employer-provided benefits in Kendall Square, a neighborhood in Cambridge, Massachusetts. The employee and employer survey data analyzed in this research was originally collected by TransAction, a transportation consulting firm in the Greater Boston region. To comply with Cambridge’s Parking and Transportation Demand Management (PTDM) Ordinance, TransAction works closely with companies to coordinate and manage onsite commuter services programs and prepare PTDM Annual Reports. The primary objectives of this research are: 1) to introduce the multi-dimensional benefits of re-envisioning the existing transportation networks; 2) to determine the influence of employer-provided commuting benefits on employee commute mode choice; 2) to provide guidance for employers interested in promoting a more sustainable employee commute mode split; and 3) to present the broader implications and applications of this research for employers, municipalities, and coordinating agencies interested in reducing SOV commuting trips and promoting the use of more sustainable, alternative modes of transportation. Overall, the findings from this research illustrate that while employers have the ability to promote more sustainable transportation choices among their employees, the complexity of the transportation network (and its interdependencies) requires collaboration among all stakeholders to initiate widespread, comprehensive changes.

Le but de cette thèse est de développer des outils statistiques permettant d'initialiser et de calibrer les modèles de microsimulation dynamique stochastique, en partant de l'exemple du modèle SimVillages (développé dans le cadre du projet Européen PRIMA). Ce modèle couple des dynamiques démographiques et économiques appliquées à une population de municipalités rurales. Chaque individu de la population, représenté explicitement dans un ménage au sein d'une commune, travaille éventuellement dans une autre, et possède sa propre trajectoire de vie. Ainsi, le modèle inclut-il des dynamiques de choix de vie, d'étude, de carrière, d'union, de naissance, de divorce, de migration et de décès. Nous avons développé, implémenté et testé les modèles et méthodes suivants: * un modèle permettant de générer une population synthétique à partir de données agrégées, où chaque individu est membre d'un ménage, vit dans une commune et possède un statut au regard de l'emploi. Cette population synthétique est l'état initial du modèle. * un modèle permettant de simuler une table d'origine-destination des déplacements domicile-travail à partir de données agrégées. * un modèle permettant d'estimer le nombre d'emplois dans les services de proximité dans une commune donnée en fonction de son nombre d'habitants et de son voisinage en termes de service. * une méthode de calibration des paramètres inconnus du modèle SimVillages de manière à satisfaire un ensemble de critères d'erreurs définis sur des sources de données hétérogènes. Cette méthode est fondée sur un nouvel algorithme d'échantillonnage séquentiel de type Approximate Bayesian Computation.

The Western Australian (WA) mining industry directly employs approximately 56,000 people. Almost half work Fly-in/Fly-out commute arrangements (FIFO, e.g. employees living in a city are flown to a remote worksite where they live and work during their work roster) and approximately half work more than 50 hours per week, on average. There are many anecdotal claims that FIFO has negative impacts on WA mining employees, leading to an elevated risk of high stress levels, depression, binge drinking, recreational drug use and relationship break-ups. Previous studies found FIFO can be stressful, and have negative impacts on WA employees 'and partners' lifestyles and relationships. This project investigated the long-term (Study One) and short-term (Study Two) impacts of FIFO and extended working hours on a representative sample of WA FIFO mining employees and partners. In Study One, a total of 222 FIFO and Daily Commute (DC) mining employees and partners completed an anonymous questionnaire investigating long-term impacts on work satisfaction, lifestyle, relationships and health. A subgroup of 32 Study One FIFO employees and partners also participated in Study Two; a detailed study of the short-term impacts of FIFO and extended working hours and how these impacts fluctuate in intensity during the mining roster. Study Two participants completed a diary and provided saliva samples each day throughout a complete mining roster. The main findings of the study were that FIFO and extended working hours had negative impacts on employees work satisfaction and FIFO was frequently reported to be disruptive to employees 'and partners' lifestyle, in the long-term. However, FIFO and extended working hours did not lead to poor quality relationships, high stress levels or poor health, on average in the long-term; there were generally no significant differences in these characteristics between FIFO and DC employees, or between the FIFO sample and the wider community. There were minor differences between FIFO and DC employees in long-term health characteristics, and Study One employees had similar, or in some cases poorer health outcomes than other community samples.

The Umnini Tribal Authority is a poor, semi-rural area in KwaZulu-Natal, governed by a local chief. This study set out to determine school commuting patterns in relation to school choice and socio-economic status (SES) in the area. Mixed methods were used, involving a parental questionnaire survey, interviews, focus groups and a field audit with photographs. Overall, almost all learners enrolled in the seven 'no-fee' state primary (four) and high schools (three) under study were found to be Black African, IsiZulu speakers, and generally ‘extremely poor’ to ‘very poor’. Most households are headed by single mothers who have completed high school but are unemployed. Most households rely on government social grants to some extent. Most fathers were either absent, poorly educated to uneducated, and far less likely to be employed than the mothers. Children living with both parents, especially where the father was tertiary educated, and the mother employed, fell into the ‘less poor’ and ‘better off than most’ categories. In terms of school choice affordability, good teachers, good school management and proximity to home were the main drivers of enrolment. SES seems to have an impact on the amount of money spent on school lunches and school expenses, although there were some concerning exceptions. Primary school learners walked to school, but many parents pay for monthly transport. Some use the government-subsidised bus. High school learners tended to have longer and less safe journeys to school and back than primary school learners. This is especially true for boy learners, who are targets for criminals, drug addicts and, even worse, school bus drivers. Several challenges face all these learners en route to school every day: crime, unsafe and poor road conditions, roadworthy vehicles, long journeys and rough terrain. Primary school learners often get lost or left behind by their transport drivers. Fortunately, their teachers are actively involved in ensuring their safety and well-being – far more so than their parents, who seldom even know the name of the transport driver, let alone whether the vehicle is appropriate, roadworthy or licenced. High school learners were more likely to live in ‘extremely poor’ to ‘very poor’ households, a possible indicator that financially better-off parents are sending their high school children to schools outside of the area. It is recommended that the local tribal authority, the provincial government, the schools, parents and drivers need to work in unison to make the school commute simpler and safer. / Environmental Sciences / M. Sc. (Environmental Management)

Les temps changent, et de nouvelles temporalités sont venues modifier l’organisation du temps des individus. Les nouvelles technologies de l’information combinées à l’usage grandissant du véhicule en mode solo ont contribué à l’étalement urbain et à l’accroissement des distances qu’ont à franchir les migrants pendulaires. Les déplacements quotidiens de milliers de personnes sur un territoire urbain à des fins de travail, d’étude et de loisir ne se font pas sans heurts. Il va sans dire qu’un usage accru des moyens de transport collectif réduirait considérablement les méfaits occasionnés par les migrations pendulaires. Encore faut-il que l’offre de transport en commun réponde à la demande des migrants pendulaires. Puisqu’il y a différents types de migrants pendulaires, l’offre de transport doit s’adapter à tous si l’on veut rejoindre une masse importante d’utilisateurs. Les nouvelles temporalités ont redéfini l’usage du temps pour une majorité d’individus. Cette recherche vise donc à vérifier si l’offre de transport en commun, faite par la Société de Transport de Montréal et la Ville de Montréal, répond adéquatement aux besoins des navetteurs d’aujourd’hui. / Times change and the New Temporalities have modified the individual’s organization of time. The new information technologies combined with high car dependence contribute to urban sprawl and to the increase in distance for commuters. Thousands of daily moves made by commuters, moving in an urban territory, are not without consequences. A massive use of public transportation would lead to a decrease of inconveniences associated with daily commuting. Public transit companies have to provide commuters with excellent service. The offer has to be adapted to people’s needs, in order to reach a mass of users. The New Temporalities have modified the way most people use their time. The goal of this research is, then, to verify if the public transit supply of « La Société de Transport de Montréal et la Ville de Montréal» is adapted to today’s commuters’ needs.