Luxembourg is one of the most successful financial centers in the world. Initially associated with international syndicated loans, euro-bonds and euro-currency markets, Luxembourg has developed as a center for private banking and is currently the second largest center for the domiciliation of investment funds in the world after the US - with a portfolio equivalent to about sixty times the country’s GDP -, and the first captive reinsurance market in the European Union. As in many other financial centers, the interbank market plays an important role. This partly reflects intra-group operations of foreign banks using their Luxembourg branches and subsidiaries to adjust their liquidity position. More generally, Luxembourg has attracted foreign banks seeking to benefit from its favorable regulatory framework, political stability, language skills of the local workforce and the agglomeration of specialized skills in accounting and legal services.<p><p>The importance of the financial sector in Luxembourg implies that a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with explicit modeling of the financial sector is indispensable in order to properly take into account the interaction between the financial and the real sector in the economy and the interconnectedness between different financial institutional sectors (e.g. commercial banks and investment funds). Explicit modeling of the financial sector also allows for an analysis of how the economy might respond to financial shocks.<p><p>This dissertation contributes to the literature by developing two analytical tools:<p><p>1.\ / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Sous l’angle des controverses économiques et environnementales autour des hydrocarbures non conventionnels, cette thèse contribue au développement des outils de la modélisation intégrée sous deux aspects : leur capacité à représenter la dynamique de long terme des marchés de l’énergie ; la prise en compte des liens entre l’économie et la dynamique des différents gaz à effet de serre.Dans le premier cas, un jeu de simulations avec le modèle Imaclim-R met en évidence les impacts économiques du gaz et pétrole de schiste à travers (i) les liens entre trajectoires de crois-sance et inerties techniques ; (ii) la conditionnalité des gains de compétitivité des États-Unis aux stratégies implicites ou explicites de ce pays en matière de spécialisation internationale et de régime de change. Au détour de ces simulations nous étudions (α) les processus d’ajustement vers l’équilibre de long terme, en regardant les conditions d’obtention et de convergence des équilibres temporaires du modèle ; (β) les limites de tractabilitéd’une maquette stylisée du modèle reproduisant les mécanismes centraux.Dans le deuxième cas est traitée la question du rôle du méthane à court et long terme dans les stratégies climatiques. L’intégration du modèle réduit du système terrestre Oscar2.2 aumodèle Imaclim-R permet d’apprécier le rôle du méthane dans les coûts de l’atténuation et d’évaluer le risque d’émissions fugitives en tête de puits de gaz de schiste. Les simulations montrent que d’une part, l’avantage économique de la disponibilité en gaz de schiste peut être nuancé au regard du coût induit par ces émissions fugitives. D’autre part, les stratégies climatiques ambitieuses visant à limiter les augmentations de température bien en deçà de 2° voir 1.5°C nécessitent un contrôle plus immédiat des émissions de méthane. / From the perspective of economic and environmental controversies over unconventional oil and gas resources, this thesis contributes to the development of integrated modelling tools intwo aspects : their ability to reflect the long-term dynamics of energy markets ; and the consideration of the links between the economy and the dynamics of the various greenhouse gases.In the first case, a set of simulations with the Imaclim-R model highlights the economic impacts of shale gas and light tight oil through (i) the links between growth paths and technicalinertia ; (ii) the conditionality of US competitiveness gains on implicit or explained strategies ; and (iii) the conditionality of US competitiveness gains on this country implicit or explicit strategies in terms of international specialization and exchange rate regime. In the course of these simulations, we study (α) the adjustment processes towards the long-term equilibrium, looking at the conditions of existence and convergence of the model temporary equilibria ; (β) the tractability limits of a stylized model of Imaclim-R reproducing the main mechanisms.In the second case, the question of the role of methane in short and long term climate strategies is addressed. The integration of the Oscar2.2 Earth System model into the Imaclim-Rmodel is used to assess the role of methane in terms of mitigation costs and to assess the risk of emissions leakage at shale gas wellheads. The simulations show that, on the one hand, theeconomic advantage of shale gas availability can be balanced against the costs induced by these emissions leakage. On the other hand, the ambitous climate strategies aiming at limitingtemperature increases well below 2° or 1.5°C require a more instant control of methane.

<h2><br></h2> <p>This dissertation consists of distinct but related essays that delve into the impacts of changing economic conditions and climate mitigation policies on household consumption, health, and welfare outcomes. The first essay examines the effect of variations in economic factors, such as home values, on unhealthy consumption behaviors in the U.S. The second essay examines the distributional effects and possible health advantages of climate mitigation policies in India. The findings in this dissertation have significant implications for preventive health and environmental justice policies, particularly concerning vulnerable populations. </p> <p>The first essay of this dissertation investigates the impact of home value fluctuations on household tobacco and alcohol consumption in the U.S., specifically focusing on consumption based on homeownership status. First, we utilize high-frequency household transaction panel data and ZIP code-level home values to estimate the causal effect of home value fluctuations (or the housing wealth effect) on household tobacco and alcohol consumption for all U.S. households. Second, we predict household homeownership status by supplementing our primary household panel transaction data with a secondary household survey dataset; this allowed us to estimate the housing wealth effect separately for homeowners and renters. Home values are a leading economic indicator and effectively represent variation in housing wealth, whereas prior literature mainly focuses on lagging economic indicators, such as the unemployment rate. Housing wealth is a significant component of household net worth in the U.S. We leverage temporal and geographic fluctuations in household transactions and local home values to show that changes in housing wealth have a causal effect on household tobacco and alcohol consumption. Our findings show that declining home values increase tobacco and alcohol consumption among homeowners, with no effect on renters. Beer and cigarettes mainly drive this effect. Declining home values substantially increase annual consumption of nicotine, tar, carbon monoxide, and alcohol by volume, exacerbating public health concerns. In contrast, unemployment shocks increase tobacco and alcohol consumption among homeowners and decrease it among renters. The housing wealth effect is most pronounced among bubble states households, heavy-use consumers, low-income, and white households. The study emphasizes the importance of targeted policy interventions to mitigate the negative effects of fluctuations in housing wealth on unhealthy consumption, especially amid the current unpredictable economic environment and volatile real estate market. </p> <p>The second essay of this dissertation analyzes the distributional impacts of climate mitigation policies consistent with India’s 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution and 2070 net-zero target, using a dynamic global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with heterogeneous Indian households. Specifically, we expand the CGE model to incorporate ten rural and ten urban household income deciles. Additionally, we link the CGE model with a global atmospheric source-receptor model to derive health co-benefits from reduced premature mortality due to lower air pollution. Several policy levers are considered in this study, including carbon pricing, enhanced coal consumption tax (or coal cess), and fossil subsidies phaseout. These are further combined with five alternative revenue recycling options. Our results suggest the potential welfare costs of such mitigation policies are rather moderate and do not exceed 0.5% over 2023-2050, not accounting for health and environmental co-benefits and damages avoided by successfully limiting global temperature rise to well below 2°C. However, health co-benefits from lower air pollution can potentially outweigh the mitigation costs. Combining carbon pricing and fossil subsidy removal is more efficient than carbon pricing alone, generating progressive medium-term welfare gains due to reduced market distortions. Raising coal cess rates is the least efficient policy. Inequality and distributional impacts vary significantly based on the chosen revenue recycling approach. Equal transfer of tax revenue across households proves to be the most efficient and equitable, followed by labor tax subsidies, leading to a Gini index and S20/S80 ratio reduction of 0.01%-1.7% and 0.1%-7%, respectively. Recycling revenues to stimulate green energy investments yields the least favorable distributional impacts and worsens inequality. Trade-offs exist between reducing inequality and fostering investment-driven economic growth when choosing revenue recycling options. Policymakers should prioritize policy mixes and revenue-recycling methods based on their objectives to effectively combat climate change while promoting sustainable growth and reducing income inequality in India. </p>

Thesis Abstract: Chapter I: Regional burden sharing of GHG mitigation policies – A Canadian perspective. The distribution of the burden of cost arising from the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is a contentious issue in policy discussions; more so among regional jurisdictions in the federalist countries with decentralized authorities over environmental regulations. In this setting, often the policy discussions are focused on the distribution of regional emission reduction targets that, in turn, entails negotiations over the distribution of the scarcity rents and the regional transfers of wealth. The allocation of regional emission entitlements is thus a key factor that could hinder the political feasibility of a national GHG mitigation policy. In this paper, we build a multi-region computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Canadian economy to assess the implications of different burden sharing rules governing the national GHG abatement policy with a cap-and-trade system of emission permits. In addition to assessing the impacts of traditional regional emissions allocation rules that involve intra-regional transfers of wealth, we consider a particular emission allocation that avoids such transfers, which may be a more palatable option given the context of likely fierce negotiations over the issue. Our results indicate to differing outcomes depending on the allocation policy in use. The CGE framework is also able to shed light on the transmission mechanisms that drive the results underlying the policy options. Chapter II: Endogenous technological change and emission allowances. Given the imminent threat of global warming due to GHG emissions, a number of emission mitigation policies have been proposed in the literature. However, they generally suffer from the classical equity-efficiency trade-off. High costs from equity concerns often render environmental policies politically unattractive and thus hard to implement. Recent advancement in the climate policy modeling literature that incorporates endogenous technological change (ETC) into the framework can potentially bring new insights into this debate. Using an inter-temporal, multi-sector CGE approach with ETC incorporated into the framework, this paper builds a model that focuses on the equity-efficiency debate for the policymakers. Canada is chosen as the country of investigation for this purpose. The paper provides a new welfare ranking of four permit allocation policies that address the equity-efficiency trade-off. In a second-best setting with pre-existing distortions, output-based allocation (OBA) of emission permits is compared to three other policy options: (i) an emissions trading system with grandfathered allocation (GFA), (ii) an auction permit trading system where permit revenue is recycled to lower payroll taxes (RPT), and (iii) a hybrid of OBA and R&D subsidy (O-R&D). We find that adapting OBA, as well as O-R&D, is welfare improving over GFA. The implicit output subsidy, entailed in the OBA policy, mitigates against the rising cost effect in the GFA policy. This is reinforced through added investment incentive in R&D when ETC in incorporated into the framework. With O-R&D, since the R&D subsidy corrects for market imperfections in the knowledge accumulation process, the effect is further bolstered, culminating into mitigation of uneven distributional outcome for energy-intensive industries as a whole. Contrary to previous results, we also find that, in terms of the welfare metric, OBA unequivocally improves the distributional outcome across sectors as compared to the RPT policy. Inclusion of ETC also unequivocally generates a higher welfare ranking for all permit policy schemes. Chapter III: Emission permit banking and induced technological change. This paper attempts to undertake an exploratory research by integrating two themes in the emission mitigation policy literature, which include: the inter-temporal emission permit banking and borrowing and the role of induced technological change in emission mitigation. Using a simple optimal control approach, we construct a unified framework that evaluates the optimal path of emissions and the optimal trajectory of permit price when both inter-temporal banking and borrowing of permits and the effects of induced technological change (ITC) are present. We find that ITC leads to a declining emission trajectory over time. The effect of ITC on the optimal permit price path, however, is ambiguous and critically depends on the extent of marginal cost saving that emanates from emission-saving technological innovation.

Thesis Abstract: Chapter I: Regional burden sharing of GHG mitigation policies – A Canadian perspective. The distribution of the burden of cost arising from the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is a contentious issue in policy discussions; more so among regional jurisdictions in the federalist countries with decentralized authorities over environmental regulations. In this setting, often the policy discussions are focused on the distribution of regional emission reduction targets that, in turn, entails negotiations over the distribution of the scarcity rents and the regional transfers of wealth. The allocation of regional emission entitlements is thus a key factor that could hinder the political feasibility of a national GHG mitigation policy. In this paper, we build a multi-region computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Canadian economy to assess the implications of different burden sharing rules governing the national GHG abatement policy with a cap-and-trade system of emission permits. In addition to assessing the impacts of traditional regional emissions allocation rules that involve intra-regional transfers of wealth, we consider a particular emission allocation that avoids such transfers, which may be a more palatable option given the context of likely fierce negotiations over the issue. Our results indicate to differing outcomes depending on the allocation policy in use. The CGE framework is also able to shed light on the transmission mechanisms that drive the results underlying the policy options. Chapter II: Endogenous technological change and emission allowances. Given the imminent threat of global warming due to GHG emissions, a number of emission mitigation policies have been proposed in the literature. However, they generally suffer from the classical equity-efficiency trade-off. High costs from equity concerns often render environmental policies politically unattractive and thus hard to implement. Recent advancement in the climate policy modeling literature that incorporates endogenous technological change (ETC) into the framework can potentially bring new insights into this debate. Using an inter-temporal, multi-sector CGE approach with ETC incorporated into the framework, this paper builds a model that focuses on the equity-efficiency debate for the policymakers. Canada is chosen as the country of investigation for this purpose. The paper provides a new welfare ranking of four permit allocation policies that address the equity-efficiency trade-off. In a second-best setting with pre-existing distortions, output-based allocation (OBA) of emission permits is compared to three other policy options: (i) an emissions trading system with grandfathered allocation (GFA), (ii) an auction permit trading system where permit revenue is recycled to lower payroll taxes (RPT), and (iii) a hybrid of OBA and R&D subsidy (O-R&D). We find that adapting OBA, as well as O-R&D, is welfare improving over GFA. The implicit output subsidy, entailed in the OBA policy, mitigates against the rising cost effect in the GFA policy. This is reinforced through added investment incentive in R&D when ETC in incorporated into the framework. With O-R&D, since the R&D subsidy corrects for market imperfections in the knowledge accumulation process, the effect is further bolstered, culminating into mitigation of uneven distributional outcome for energy-intensive industries as a whole. Contrary to previous results, we also find that, in terms of the welfare metric, OBA unequivocally improves the distributional outcome across sectors as compared to the RPT policy. Inclusion of ETC also unequivocally generates a higher welfare ranking for all permit policy schemes. Chapter III: Emission permit banking and induced technological change. This paper attempts to undertake an exploratory research by integrating two themes in the emission mitigation policy literature, which include: the inter-temporal emission permit banking and borrowing and the role of induced technological change in emission mitigation. Using a simple optimal control approach, we construct a unified framework that evaluates the optimal path of emissions and the optimal trajectory of permit price when both inter-temporal banking and borrowing of permits and the effects of induced technological change (ITC) are present. We find that ITC leads to a declining emission trajectory over time. The effect of ITC on the optimal permit price path, however, is ambiguous and critically depends on the extent of marginal cost saving that emanates from emission-saving technological innovation.

Questa tesi, strutturata in tre documenti autonomi ma logicamente connessi, si propone di analizzare alcuni problemi, idee e prospettive relativi allo sviluppo. In particolare, il primo documento “Sviluppo e paradigmi di sviluppo: un’analisi delle visioni prevalenti” fornisce un quadro comparativo dei principali modelli di sviluppo adottati da diversi paesi (visione, azioni specifiche e processi di attuazione) e ne evidenzia specificità, analogie e differenze. Il secondo documento: “Analisi d’impatto delle politiche de degli shocks dei prezzi internazionali: Modelli CGE per un paese non industrializzato importatore netto di petrolio e dipendente dagli aiuti esterni”, mette in luce come le informazioni utilizzabili nei processi di formulazione delle politiche che si ottengono da un modello CGE dipendano sia dalle assunzioni relative alla struttura del modello che dalla struttura del sistema economico oggetto dell’indagine. In particolare, le variazioni del tasso di cambio reale si ripercuotono sul resto del sistema tanto più, quanto più il paese riceve finanziamenti ed aiuti dall’estero. Il terzo documento “Shocks dei prezzi internazionali in Burkina Faso: valutazione degli impatti socio-economici con modelli CGE” si propone di valutare l’impatto degli shocks dei prezzi internazionali di prodotti alimentari, petrolio, fertilizzanti e cotone, avvenuti nella prima decade degli anni 2000, sul sistema socio-economico del Burkina Faso, esempio di paese non industrializzato importatore netto di petrolio e dipendente dagli aiuti esteri. Da una lettura complessiva dei tre documenti emerge che, per assicurare uno sviluppo globale sostenibile nel lungo periodo, alla luce dei problemi di sviluppo emergenti e dei vincoli globali quali il vincolo energetico, i cambiamenti climatici, le disuguaglianze, i conflitti e le migrazioni è necessario rivedere la maggior parte dei paradigmi di sviluppo adottati finora. / This thesis, structured in three individual but logically interlinked papers aims at addressing select development issues, ideas and perspectives. More specifically, the first paper “Development and development paradigms: a (reasoned) review of prevailing visions” provides a comparative analysis of the prevailing development models adopted by different countries (visions, specific actions and implementation processes) and highlights their analogies, differences and specificities. The second paper “Analyzing policy impacts and international price shocks: Alternative Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models for an aid-dependent less-industrialized country”, highlights how relevant information for policy making obtained by CGE models depend both on the assumptions regarding the structure of the model and on the structure of the socio-economic system under investigation. More specifically, the more the country receives foreign grants and loans, the more the variations of the real exchange rate due to price shocks affect the country’s socio-economic system. The third document “International price shocks in Burkina Faso: assessing development impacts with a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) approach” assesses the impact of the international price shocks of food, oil, fertilizers and cotton, occurred in the first decade of the new millennium, on Burkina Faso, a less-industrialized oil-dependent and foreign aid-dependent country. Reading across the three papers of this work, it emerges that, to achieve globally equitable and sustainable development objectives, in the light of the emerging issues and global constraints such as exhaustible fossil energy, climate changes, inequalities conflicts and migrations, it is necessary revising most of the development paradigms adopted so far.

Thesis Abstract: Chapter I: Regional burden sharing of GHG mitigation policies – A Canadian perspective. The distribution of the burden of cost arising from the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is a contentious issue in policy discussions; more so among regional jurisdictions in the federalist countries with decentralized authorities over environmental regulations. In this setting, often the policy discussions are focused on the distribution of regional emission reduction targets that, in turn, entails negotiations over the distribution of the scarcity rents and the regional transfers of wealth. The allocation of regional emission entitlements is thus a key factor that could hinder the political feasibility of a national GHG mitigation policy. In this paper, we build a multi-region computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Canadian economy to assess the implications of different burden sharing rules governing the national GHG abatement policy with a cap-and-trade system of emission permits. In addition to assessing the impacts of traditional regional emissions allocation rules that involve intra-regional transfers of wealth, we consider a particular emission allocation that avoids such transfers, which may be a more palatable option given the context of likely fierce negotiations over the issue. Our results indicate to differing outcomes depending on the allocation policy in use. The CGE framework is also able to shed light on the transmission mechanisms that drive the results underlying the policy options. Chapter II: Endogenous technological change and emission allowances. Given the imminent threat of global warming due to GHG emissions, a number of emission mitigation policies have been proposed in the literature. However, they generally suffer from the classical equity-efficiency trade-off. High costs from equity concerns often render environmental policies politically unattractive and thus hard to implement. Recent advancement in the climate policy modeling literature that incorporates endogenous technological change (ETC) into the framework can potentially bring new insights into this debate. Using an inter-temporal, multi-sector CGE approach with ETC incorporated into the framework, this paper builds a model that focuses on the equity-efficiency debate for the policymakers. Canada is chosen as the country of investigation for this purpose. The paper provides a new welfare ranking of four permit allocation policies that address the equity-efficiency trade-off. In a second-best setting with pre-existing distortions, output-based allocation (OBA) of emission permits is compared to three other policy options: (i) an emissions trading system with grandfathered allocation (GFA), (ii) an auction permit trading system where permit revenue is recycled to lower payroll taxes (RPT), and (iii) a hybrid of OBA and R&D subsidy (O-R&D). We find that adapting OBA, as well as O-R&D, is welfare improving over GFA. The implicit output subsidy, entailed in the OBA policy, mitigates against the rising cost effect in the GFA policy. This is reinforced through added investment incentive in R&D when ETC in incorporated into the framework. With O-R&D, since the R&D subsidy corrects for market imperfections in the knowledge accumulation process, the effect is further bolstered, culminating into mitigation of uneven distributional outcome for energy-intensive industries as a whole. Contrary to previous results, we also find that, in terms of the welfare metric, OBA unequivocally improves the distributional outcome across sectors as compared to the RPT policy. Inclusion of ETC also unequivocally generates a higher welfare ranking for all permit policy schemes. Chapter III: Emission permit banking and induced technological change. This paper attempts to undertake an exploratory research by integrating two themes in the emission mitigation policy literature, which include: the inter-temporal emission permit banking and borrowing and the role of induced technological change in emission mitigation. Using a simple optimal control approach, we construct a unified framework that evaluates the optimal path of emissions and the optimal trajectory of permit price when both inter-temporal banking and borrowing of permits and the effects of induced technological change (ITC) are present. We find that ITC leads to a declining emission trajectory over time. The effect of ITC on the optimal permit price path, however, is ambiguous and critically depends on the extent of marginal cost saving that emanates from emission-saving technological innovation.

Thesis Abstract: Chapter I: Regional burden sharing of GHG mitigation policies – A Canadian perspective. The distribution of the burden of cost arising from the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is a contentious issue in policy discussions; more so among regional jurisdictions in the federalist countries with decentralized authorities over environmental regulations. In this setting, often the policy discussions are focused on the distribution of regional emission reduction targets that, in turn, entails negotiations over the distribution of the scarcity rents and the regional transfers of wealth. The allocation of regional emission entitlements is thus a key factor that could hinder the political feasibility of a national GHG mitigation policy. In this paper, we build a multi-region computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Canadian economy to assess the implications of different burden sharing rules governing the national GHG abatement policy with a cap-and-trade system of emission permits. In addition to assessing the impacts of traditional regional emissions allocation rules that involve intra-regional transfers of wealth, we consider a particular emission allocation that avoids such transfers, which may be a more palatable option given the context of likely fierce negotiations over the issue. Our results indicate to differing outcomes depending on the allocation policy in use. The CGE framework is also able to shed light on the transmission mechanisms that drive the results underlying the policy options. Chapter II: Endogenous technological change and emission allowances. Given the imminent threat of global warming due to GHG emissions, a number of emission mitigation policies have been proposed in the literature. However, they generally suffer from the classical equity-efficiency trade-off. High costs from equity concerns often render environmental policies politically unattractive and thus hard to implement. Recent advancement in the climate policy modeling literature that incorporates endogenous technological change (ETC) into the framework can potentially bring new insights into this debate. Using an inter-temporal, multi-sector CGE approach with ETC incorporated into the framework, this paper builds a model that focuses on the equity-efficiency debate for the policymakers. Canada is chosen as the country of investigation for this purpose. The paper provides a new welfare ranking of four permit allocation policies that address the equity-efficiency trade-off. In a second-best setting with pre-existing distortions, output-based allocation (OBA) of emission permits is compared to three other policy options: (i) an emissions trading system with grandfathered allocation (GFA), (ii) an auction permit trading system where permit revenue is recycled to lower payroll taxes (RPT), and (iii) a hybrid of OBA and R&D subsidy (O-R&D). We find that adapting OBA, as well as O-R&D, is welfare improving over GFA. The implicit output subsidy, entailed in the OBA policy, mitigates against the rising cost effect in the GFA policy. This is reinforced through added investment incentive in R&D when ETC in incorporated into the framework. With O-R&D, since the R&D subsidy corrects for market imperfections in the knowledge accumulation process, the effect is further bolstered, culminating into mitigation of uneven distributional outcome for energy-intensive industries as a whole. Contrary to previous results, we also find that, in terms of the welfare metric, OBA unequivocally improves the distributional outcome across sectors as compared to the RPT policy. Inclusion of ETC also unequivocally generates a higher welfare ranking for all permit policy schemes. Chapter III: Emission permit banking and induced technological change. This paper attempts to undertake an exploratory research by integrating two themes in the emission mitigation policy literature, which include: the inter-temporal emission permit banking and borrowing and the role of induced technological change in emission mitigation. Using a simple optimal control approach, we construct a unified framework that evaluates the optimal path of emissions and the optimal trajectory of permit price when both inter-temporal banking and borrowing of permits and the effects of induced technological change (ITC) are present. We find that ITC leads to a declining emission trajectory over time. The effect of ITC on the optimal permit price path, however, is ambiguous and critically depends on the extent of marginal cost saving that emanates from emission-saving technological innovation.

La contribution des changements d’usage des sols aux émissions de gaz à effet de serre d’origine anthropique est estimée à 17% pour la décennie 2000, en grande partie liée à la déforestation. L’un des facteurs principaux de ces changements est l’expansion des terres agricoles pour les besoins locaux de développement, mais également sous l’effet des exportations stimulées par la mondialisation. Pour cette raison, des préoccupations nouvelles surgissent quant aux effets des politiques sur l’usage des sols par le biais des marchés internationaux. Ce travail présente trois illustrations concrètes où ces effets peuvent être d’ampleur conséquente : i) l’intensification de l’agriculture dans les pays en voie de développement, ii) les accords commerciaux, et iii) les politiques d’agrocarburants. Les résultats montrent que pour chacune de ces politiques, les réponses des marchés sont susceptibles de jouer un rôle déterminant dans le bilan des gaz à effet de serre. L’atténuation du changement climatique par l’intensification des cultures conduit à des réductions d’émissions, mais l’effet rebond de la demande pourrait annuler une part substantielle des bénéfices attendus sur les surfaces de terres cultivées. L’exemple d’un possible accord entre l’Union européenne et le Mercosur montre les effets négatifs que peut induire la libéralisation de certains produits agricoles, si des mesures d’accompagnement adéquates ne sont pas mises en place. Enfin, l’effet des changements indirects d’affectation des sols est susceptible d’effacer une part substantielle des réductions d’émissions alléguées aux agrocarburants. Les réponses de l’affectation des sols aux différentes politiques dépendent néanmoins de nombreux paramètres comportementaux, et il est difficile d’en fournir une estimation chiffrée précise. Plusieurs approches de modélisation sont utilisées ici pour quantifier ces effets et explorer les intervalles de confiance découlant des estimations actuelles de la littérature économétrique. La prise en compte de cette externalité dans l’évaluation des politiques publiques nécessite des approches nouvelles intégrant mieux les différents niveaux d’incertitude sur ces effets. / Land use change is estimated to have generated 17% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in the 2000s, a large part coming from deforestation. The main driver of these emissions is expansion of agricultural activities, for the need of local development in tropical regions. However, they have also been caused by the dynamics of globalisation which has stimulated agricultural trade flows. Thus, today, there are new concerns with respect to how agricultural policies are influencing land use changes in other parts of the world through international market responses. In this work I consider three concrete illustrations of where these effects can be of significant magnitude: i) agriculture intensification in developing countries, ii) trade agreements, and iii) biofuel policies. I find that for each of these policies, market responses are likely to play a significant role in the final greenhouse gas emission balance. Mitigation of emissions through agricultural intensification could have quite beneficial outcomes, but the rebound effect on the demand side would offset a large part of greenhouse gas emission savings attributable to the land sparing effect. With the example of a possible EU-MERCOSUR trade agreement, I also show the adverse effect of liberalising certain specific agricultural products closely connected to land use change dynamics without adequate accompanying measures. Last, the indirect land use change effect of biofuels is likely to offset a large part of their alleged GHG emission savings. Land use change responses depend on many behavioural parameters, however, and providing precise estimates constitutes a challenge. I use different modelling approaches to quantify their magnitude and extensively explore the level of confidence on the basis of current state of econometric findings.New approaches should be elaborated to take account of this externality in public policy assessments, together with an appropriate consideration of the uncertainty ranges associated with these effects.

中國大陸自「改革開放」以來，在經濟體制和結構上有著急遽的轉變，同時，海峽兩岸的經貿互動與依存程度也愈來愈高。因此，能有效分析中國大陸經濟情勢的政策模型，對於台灣與中國大陸的政策制定者與政策研究分析者而言皆十分重要。可計算一般均衡（Computable General Equilibrium，CGE）模型由於在數據需求的較大彈性及模型結構上的特性，成為中國大陸現今重要的經濟政策模型之一，本研究的目的在於考察、分析中國大陸可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型的研發背景、發展歷程、建模過程、主要政策應用方向及研究結果。 　　本研究的內容及流程如后：（1）依「歷史研究」、「調查研究」來歸納、分析中國大陸經濟學研究的發展歷程，以及中國大陸可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型的發展歷程；（2）接著依「文獻研究」來分析、分類本研究所蒐集的中國大陸可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型實證文獻（1978年－1998年）；（3）接著依「理論研究」來歸納、分析出可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型的發展、基本結構、數據基礎與建模（Modeling）；（4）以「可計算一般均衡」（CGE）方法，先依據最新的「1995年度中國投入產出表」，編制出兩張：「中國大陸1995年社會會計矩陣」、「中國大陸1995年金融社會會計矩陣」為模型數據基礎，然後應用中國大陸所研發的兩個可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型（「中國大陸經濟-環境可計算一般均衡模型」、「中國大陸金融可計算一般均衡模型」）的主要結構和方程式，以說明中國大陸可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型的建模過程和政策應用方向及模擬結果。 　　本研究的研究結果如后：（1）中國大陸經濟學研究的發展、實際經濟情況變化和政策制定需要，導致中國大陸可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型在「改革開放」後的發展可分為「啟蒙研發」和「政策應用」兩個階段；（2）將中國大陸可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型實證文獻（1978年－1998年）有系統地分類出「貿易政策問題」、「能源和環境政策問題」、「財政和稅收問題」、「經濟改革和發展策略問題」、「外來衝擊問題」、「貨幣金融問題」、「社會保險問題」等七類實證文獻；（3）應用兩個中國大陸研發的可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型，來說明建模（Modeling）與數據編制的過程，並延續、拓展相關的政策模擬研究，分析了環境政策（「綠色導向能源政策」，Green-Oriented Energy Policy：2000年－2015年）與匯率政策（「管理浮動匯率政策」，Managed Floating Exchange Rate Policy：1998年）對中國大陸經濟體的影響。 謝 詞 ii 中文提要 iv 英文提要 vi 中文目次 viii 英文目次 ix 表 次 x 圖 次 xi 1. 緒 論 1 1.1 研究動機 1 1.2 研究目的 3 1.3 研究流程與內容 4 2. 文獻探討 5 2.1 中國大陸經濟學研究的發展歷程 5 2.2 中國大陸可計算一般均衡模型的發展 11 2.3 中國大陸可計算一般均衡模型實證文獻回顧 20 3. 可計算一般均衡模型的發展、基本結構、數據基礎與建模 32 3.1 可計算一般均衡模型的概念與發展 32 3.2 可計算一般均衡模型的一般性基本結構 36 3.3 可計算一般均衡模型的數據基礎與校準 40 3.4 可計算一般均衡模型的計算機求解與建模過程 42 4. 中國大陸可計算一般模型之應用（1）─中國大陸經濟-環境可計算一般均衡模型 45 4.1 模型的基本結構 45 4.2 模型方程式 49 4.3 模型的數據基礎與校準 57 4.4 政策應用-中國大陸宏觀調控下環境政策之一般均衡分析 61 5. 中國大陸可計算一般模型之應用（II）─中國大陸金融可計算一般均衡模型 69 5.1 模型的基本結構 69 5.2 模型方程式 71 5.3 模型的數據基礎與校準 73 5.4 政策應用-中國大陸匯率政策之一般均衡分析 78 6. 結 論 83 6.1 本研究主要貢獻 83 6.2 研究限制與建議 84 6.3 後續研究建議 85 參考文獻 86 附錄1. 94 附錄2. 103 / Both the system and structure of Chinese economy have been changed rapidly since the launch of "economic reform and opening to the outside" in Mainland China, and the economic interaction and trade interdependence between Taiwan and Mainland China are intenser and closer. Effective policy analysis models for Chinese economy is very important to the policy makers and policy analysis researcher both in Taiwan and Mainland China. The Computable General Equilibrium （CGE） model has become one of the most important economic policy analysis model because of its characteristic of higher flexibility on benchmark data and structure. The purpose of this study is to review, investigate and analyze the developmental background, developmental progress, modeling procedure, policy simulations and research results. 　　The brief contents and procedure of this study consist of （1） reviewing on the development of economic research in mainland China and CGE modeling for Chinese economy, （2） reviewing on the literature of CGE models for Chinese economy used on Policy Analysis（1978－1998）, （3） reviewing on the development, basic structure, benchmark data and modeling of CGE model, （4） constructing two Chinese Social Accounting Matrix （SAM） tables developed from the most recent 1995 Chinese Input-Output table to be the benchmark data of two CGE models, the "Chinese Economic-Environmental CGE model" and the "Chinese Financial CGE model", which are developed from Chinese government and researchers, and we revise them in this study,（5） applying those two models to show and illustrate the modeling procedure and results of policy simulations of CGE models for Chinese economy. 　　In conclusion and contribution, it is composed of three parts. （1） The development of CGE model in Mainland China can be divided into two ages, "The Beginning"（1978－1991） and "The Take-off"（1992－）, which results from the development of economic research in Mainland China, the rapidly changed economic system and structure of Chinese economy, and government's urgent demands for policy-analysis tools. （2） The literature of CGE models for Chinese economy used on policy analysis from 1978 to 1998 can be classified into seven groups－ trade policy, energy and environmental policies, public finance and tax reform policies, economic reform and development strategy, external shocks, monetary and financial policies, and social insurance policy. （3） We apply those two CGE models for Chinese economy to analyze the economic and environmental impacts of environmental policy－ " Green-Oriented Energy Policy"（2000－2015） and the economic impacts of the " Managed Floating Exchange Rate Policy"（1998）.