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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
71

Examining the unique security features of a credit card with the aim of identifying possible fraudulent use

Budhram, Trevor 09 1900 (has links)
The use of credit cards has become a way of life in many parts of the world. Credit cards have also created many new opportunities for criminal activity. It is in this light that organizations such as VISA International have explored a variety of security alternatives by constantly reviewing security measures that may be applied to cards and devote considerable resources to the maintenance of security systems and programmes. These programmes mandated by the association, include uniform card standards, security standards for manufactures, embossing and encoding of cards, standards for mailing the cards and credit background investigations of applicants. These standards assist investigators in examining counterfeit cards and distinguish a counterfeit card from a genuine card. The constant reviewing of security features and methods by the association is to create a card that is technically difficult to alter or counterfeit. / Criminology / M.Tech. (Forensic Investigation)
72

Examining the unique security features of a credit card with the aim of identifying possible fraudulent use

Budhram, Trevor 09 1900 (has links)
The use of credit cards has become a way of life in many parts of the world. Credit cards have also created many new opportunities for criminal activity. It is in this light that organizations such as VISA International have explored a variety of security alternatives by constantly reviewing security measures that may be applied to cards and devote considerable resources to the maintenance of security systems and programmes. These programmes mandated by the association, include uniform card standards, security standards for manufactures, embossing and encoding of cards, standards for mailing the cards and credit background investigations of applicants. These standards assist investigators in examining counterfeit cards and distinguish a counterfeit card from a genuine card. The constant reviewing of security features and methods by the association is to create a card that is technically difficult to alter or counterfeit. / Criminology and Security Science / M.Tech. (Forensic Investigation)
73

An investigation into financial fraud in online banking and card payment systems in the UK and China

Sun, Yan January 2011 (has links)
This doctoral thesis represents an investigation into financial fraud in online banking and card payment systems in the UK and China, involving network security, online financial transactions, internet fraud, card payment systems and individuals' perception of and behaviours towards electronic environments. In contrast to previous studies, the research questions were tackled by survey questionnaires both in the UK and China, with a particular interest in fraud and attempted fraud. The main findings from the UK respondents were that those with higher IT skill and younger respondents are more likely to be defrauded on the internet. Certain types of online activities are associated with higher risks of fraud, these being internet banking; online shopping and media downloading. Furthermore, four predictors (internet banking, online education services, downloading media and length of debit card usage) provided significant effects in the logistic regression model to explain fraud occurrence in the UK. Based on the data collected in China, younger respondents were more likely to have higher general IT skill and higher educational qualifications. However, online shopping was the only online activity which was significantly correlated to fraud occurrence. Finally, two predictors (frequency of usage of online shopping and number of debit cards) were selected in the logistic regression model to explain fraud occurrence in China.
74

Moderní technologie v životě seniora / Modern technology in the lives of seniors

Pfeilerová, Iveta January 2015 (has links)
Investigator: Bc. Iveta Pfeilerová Supervisor: prof. PhDr. Beáta Krahulcová CSc Modern technology in the lives of seniors The thesis titled "Modern technology in the lives of seniors" is focused on a target group of seniors living in a retirement home and their abilities and potential utilization of modern technologies such as cell phone, computer and credit card. The main objective of this thesis was to investigate the relationship that the seniors have to the modern technologies, such as cell phones, computers and credit cards. The thesis and the research was approached with the aspect that these are the seniors who live in a retirement home. In recent years the issue of quality of life of seniors is becoming increasingly hot topic and work with a cell phone, a computer and the Internet can very significantly affect the lives of seniors. The goal was to determine if these visions are reflected in the lives of seniors in housing facilities and if it is possible that the respondents are interested in these technologies. The research was conducted in both theoretical and practical framework. The theoretical part deals with the demographic changes in society, with the aging population and with the old age itself. Further described is the general information lireracy, information needs of seniors and...
75

Conception et optimisation de circuits électroniques communicants pour une intégration au format carte bancaire : application à une serrure de vélo à assistance électrique / Design and optimization of communicating electronic circuits for an integration in a credit card size

Lahmani, Fatine 12 February 2014 (has links)
Depuis son apparition dans les années 70, les cartes à puce ont envahi le marché mondial, leur utilisation n'a cessé d'augmenter et de se diversifier. Sans forcément nous en rendre compte, chacun de nous en a plusieurs dans son portefeuille, son sac, son attaché-case… Toutes ces cartes ont pour point commun le fait de contenir des informations sur son titulaire qui servent à son identification dans les différentes actions qu'il souhaite effectuer. Ces informations sont présentes sur la piste magnétique et/ou la puce embarquée dans la carte. Avec les progrès technologiques actuels et plus précisément la miniaturisation des composants électroniques, nous sommes de plus en plus amenés à voir des composants complexes embarqués dans des cartes à puce pour satisfaire des besoins en ressources plus grands pour des applications de plus en plus sophistiquées. L'utilisation croissante du nombre des systèmes embarqués sur une carte à puce amène à prendre en compte différentes contraintes lors de la conception. Tout d'abord, il y a celles liées aux systèmes embarqués standards, telles que la surface, la consommation et la rapidité d'exécution. Ensuite viennent celles liées à la carte à puce en elle-même, des spécificités liées à l'épaisseur et aux contraintes mécaniques. On retrouve également des contraintes de consommation et de surface. L'apparition du sans-contact a révolutionné le domaine de la carte à puce. Plus besoin d'introduire la carte dans un lecteur pour lire les informations. Les données ne transitent plus par la puce mais via l'air grâce à une antenne intégrée. Il suffit de se trouver à proximité du lecteur sans forcément sortir la carte de poche ou du sac. Elles sont connues sous le nom de cartes RFID pour Radio Frequency Identification ou identifiction par radio fréquence. D'autres contraintes de conception sont alors apparues : choix de la fréquence à laquelle va se faire la communication et l'échange des données, la géométrie de l'antenne, le choix du tag… Tous les composants ont besoin d'une source d'alimentation. Les circuits RFID basiques dits passifs puisent leur énergie dans le champ magnétique produit à proximité du lecteur mais la complexité de certains circuits nécessite la présence d'une source d'alimentation intégrée dans la carte, dans ce cas les circuits sont désignés par actifs. En général, ce sont des batteries fines et flexibles qui sont utilisées. Là aussi, la technologie a fait d'immenses progrès et des batteries plus fines et avec de plus grandes capacités voient le jour. Ce sont ces batteries qui viennent alimenter les composants de la carte. Tous ces éléments constituent un véritable circuit électronique.Cette thèse industrielle a pour but dans un premier temps de concevoir un circuit électronique embarqué dans une carte au format bancaire en répondant à un cahier des charges bien défini tout en prenant en compte les différentes contraintes imposées par ce format. Ce circuit se devra d'être flexible, autonome et consommant le moins d'énergie possible. Dans un deuxième temps, une fois le produit réalisé et validé le but est de l'optimiser en proposant des solutions afin de faire gagner du temps en amont de la conception par exemple ou en proposant des modèles simples mais qui prennent en compte toutes les contraintes liées à ce type d'applications. / Since its emergence in the 70s , smart cards have invaded the world market , their use has been steadily increasing and diversifying . Without necessarily realizing it , each of us has more than one in his wallet, bag, his briefcase ...All these cards have in common the fact of containing information about the holder, which can be used for identification in the different activities they want to perform . These information is present on the magnetic stripe and / or on the chip embedded in the card. With current technology and more specifically the miniaturization of electronic components , we are seeing complex components embedded in smart cards to meet greater needs for resources for applications increasingly sophisticated .The increasing use of on-board on a smart card systems leads to take into account various constraints in the design . Firstly, there are those related to embedded systems standards , such as the area, consumption and speed of execution. Followed by those related to the smart card itself , specificities related to the thickness and mechanical stress . There are also the constraints of consumption and surface.The appearance of non-contact has revolutionized the field of smart card. No more Need to insert the card into a reader to get the information . The data are not routed by the chip but via air through an integrated antenna. You have to be near the reader without necessarily take the card out of a pocket. They are known as RFID cards for Radio Frequency Identification.Other design constraints then appeared : the choice of the frequency communication for data exchange, the geometry of the antenna , the choice of the tag ...All components require a power source . The basic circuits called passive RFID draw their energy from the magnetic field near the reader but the complexity of certain circuits requires the presence of an integrated power supply into the card, in this case the circuits are called active tags. In general , thin and flexible batteries are used. Again , technology has made tremendous progress and finer batteries with larger capacities emerged. All these elements constitute a real electronic circuit.This industrial thesis aims firstly to design an electronic circuit embedded in a bank card format meets the specifications defined taking into account the various constraints imposed by this format.This circuit must be flexible , autonomous and consuming the least possible energy.In a second step , once the product is produced and validated the goal is to optimize it proposing solutions to save time upstream design example or offering simple models, but taking into account all the constraints associated with this type of applications.
76

Ensaios sobre plataformas, agentes heterogêneos e discriminação de preços / Essays on platforms, heterogeneous agents and price discrimination

Garber, Gabriel 02 December 2014 (has links)
Apresentamos três estudos sobre os assuntos mencionados no título. O primeiro, econométrico, avalia os impactos da quebra de exclusividade no lado credenciador da indústria de cartões de pagamentos no Brasil que ocorreu em 2010. Por um lado, tentamos a construção de um grupo de controle e, por outro, fazemos a decomposição dos preços em markup e custo marginal. As estimações, que empregam um banco de dados com informações individuais para os maiores lojistas de cada setor, apontam para o sucesso dessa intervenção na promoção da concorrência. No segundo artigo, propomos que cobranças indevidas feitas por instituições financeiras podem ser uma forma de discriminação de preços, já que sua devolução demanda esforço dos consumidores. Nesse caso, tendo em vista que as cobranças indevidas ótimas dependem do perfil do consumidor, construímos um teste baseado numa função de verossimilhança para mostrar como a informação de reclamações poderia ser utilizada para detectar esse tipo de comportamento, mesmo quando a autoridade interessada nesse monitoramento sabe menos sobre os clientes que a instituição financeira. O terceiro artigo, teórico aplicado, estuda o comportamento de plataformas comerciais em mercados de dois lados nos quais os papéis de compradores e vendedores são bem definidos e há heterogeneidade dentro de cada um desses grupos de agentes. Diferentemente do que ocorre no caso em que os interesses são simétricos, no lado vendedor não ocorre autosseleção dos participantes e a plataforma passa a ter um papel de certificação dos vendedores, criando ambientes de qualidade selecionada onde um preço maior pode ser cobrado dos compradores. / This thesis has three papers related to the subject in the title. The first one, an econometric paper, evaluates the impact of a break of exclusivity promoted by Brazilian authorities in the payment card acquiring industry in 2010. We use two frameworks: in one of them, we try to identify categories of merchants to use as control group, while in the other we decompose prices into markup and marginal cost elements. The estimations employ a dataset of individual merchants with information for the largest ones in each category. The results indicate success in promoting some competition. In the second paper, we argue that undue charges made by financial institutions may be a form of price discrimination, since their reversion requires effort from consumers. Given that in such case the optimal undue charges depend on consumers profiles, we build a likelihood function based test to show how information on complaints might be used to detect this sort of behavior, even when the relevant authority knows less about clients than the financial institution. The third one, an applied theoretical paper, analyses the behavior of commercial platforms in two-sided markets where the roles of buyers and sellers are well defined and there is heterogeneity within each of these groups of agents. Differently from what happens in a setting with symmetric interests, in the seller side no self-selection takes place and the platform gains an important quality certification role, creating spaces for trade where seller quality is higher and buyers are willing to pay more.
77

Aquisições estratégicas: um estudo sobre o mercado de cartões de crédito

Lorey, Vilma Ataíde 21 May 2008 (has links)
Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-25T16:45:06Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Vilma Ataide Lorey.pdf: 341742 bytes, checksum: e03c768ed0886fadb37dd0bd9915ceae (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-05-21 / The dynamics of the business world today have caused organizational strategies to adjust to a complex movement marked by globalization, competitiveness and uncertainties. In this context, organizations must seek sustainable alternatives to compete in the market. Among these alternatives, there is a much concern in the implementation of business models focused on strategic brand positioning, partnerships and strategic alliances, and mergers and acquisitions processes, which are used to strengthen the organization in a market in which it already acts or to help enter new markets. In examining the trends of the economy, the financial sector gained prominence due to the increase of credit, heating of the economy, opening of new markets, facilities for communication and information exchange globally. Within the credit card market, the trend of replacing checks with credit cards continues to grow and will remain in the coming years, as plastic money is increasingly more and more popular. Based on this scenario, the goal of this dissertation is to verify as the acquisition process influences the changes in the credit card market and strengthens the position of banks in this industry. To achieve this objective, the research methodology used was a case study of a merger and acquisition process which occurred between two banks that manage credit card issuing. We performed non-structured interviews with the key players who participated in all stages of the process of merger and acquisition. The main conclusion of this work is the confirmation that mergers and acquisitions strengthen the competitive positioning of the banks, which is of course, the primary objective. In the case study, the strategy of buying market share in the premium segment was achieved, in addition to having access to skilled resources and new technologies / A dinâmica do mundo dos negócios na atualidade fez com que as estratégias organizacionais se adaptassem a um movimento complexo marcado pela globalização, competitividade, dinamismo e incertezas. Neste contexto, as organizações precisam buscar alternativas sustentáveis para se manterem no mercado. Entre essas alternativas, há uma preocupação acentuada na implantação de modelos de administração estratégica voltados para o posicionamento de marca, formação de parcerias e alianças estratégicas, processos de fusões e aquisições para se fortalecer junto a um mercado onde já possui atividades ou iniciar atuações em mercados desconhecidos. Ao analisar as tendências da economia, o setor financeiro ganha destaque devido ao aumento do crédito, aquecimento da economia, abertura de novos mercados, facilidades de comunicação e trocas de informações globais. Considerando as transformações ocorridas no mercado de cartão de crédito, a substituição do cheque pelo cartão continua crescendo. A tendência de substituição do cheque pelo cartão vai se manter nos próximos anos, uma vez que o dinheiro de plástico está cada vez mais popular. Com base nesse cenário o objetivo dessa dissertação de mestrado foi verificar como o processo de aquisição influencia as transformações no mercado de cartão de crédito e fortalece o posicionamento dos bancos nesse setor. Para alcançar esse objetivo, a metodologia de pesquisa utilizada foi um estudo de caso de um processo de fusão e aquisição ocorrido entre dois bancos para gerenciamento de emissão de cartão de créditos. Foram realizadas entrevistas não-estruturadas junto a atores que participaram de todas as fases do processo de fusão e aquisição. Os principais resultados desse trabalho foram: a confirmação do objetivo geral de que as fusões e aquisições que ocorreram nos últimos anos fortaleceram o posicionamento dos bancos. No estudo de caso a estratégia de comprar market share no segmento premium foi alcançada além de ter acesso a recursos qualificados e a novas tecnologias
78

Atualização dinâmica de modelo de regressão logística binária para detecção de fraudes em transações eletrônicas com cartão de crédito / Dynamic update of binary logistic regression model for fraud detection in electronic credit card transactions

Beraldi, Fidel 01 December 2014 (has links)
Com o avanço tecnológico e econômico, que facilitaram o processo de comunicação e aumento do poder de compra, transações com cartão de crédito tornaram-se o principal meio de pagamento no varejo nacional e internacional (Bolton e Hand , 2002). Neste aspecto, o aumento do número de transações com cartão de crédito é crucial para a geração de mais oportunidades para fraudadores produzirem novas formas de fraudes, o que resulta em grandes perdas para o sistema financeiro (Chan et al. , 1999). Os índices de fraudes têm mostrado que transações no comércio eletrônico (e-commerce) são mais arriscadas do que transações presencias em terminais, pois aquelas não fazem uso de processos seguros e eficientes de autenticação do portador do cartão, como utilização de senha eletrônica. Como os fraudadores se adaptam rapidamente às medidas de prevenção, os modelos estatísticos para detecção de fraudes precisam ser adaptáveis e flexíveis para evoluir ao longo do tempo de maneira dinâmica. Raftery et al. (2010) desenvolveram um método chamado Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA), ou Ponderação Dinâmica de Modelos, que implementa um processo de atualização contínuo ao longo do tempo. Nesta dissertação, desenvolvemos modelos DMA no espaço de transações eletrônicas oriundas do comércio eletrônico que incorporem as tendências e características de fraudes em cada período de análise. Também desenvolvemos modelos de regressão logística clássica com o objetivo de comparar as performances no processo de detecção de fraude. Os dados utilizados para tal são provenientes de uma empresa de meios de pagamentos eletrônico. O experimento desenvolvido mostra que os modelos DMA apresentaram resultados melhores que os modelos de regressão logística clássica quando analisamos a medida F e a área sob a curva ROC (AUC). A medida F para o modelo DMA ficou em 58% ao passo que o modelo de regressão logística clássica ficou em 29%. Já para a AUC, o modelo DMA alcançou 93% e o modelo de regressão logística clássica 84%. Considerando os resultados encontrados para os modelos DMA, podemos concluir que sua característica de atualização ao longo do tempo se mostra um grande diferencial em dados como os de fraude, que sofrem mudanças de comportamento a todo momento. Deste modo, sua aplicação se mostra adequada no processo de detecção de transações fraudulentas no ambiente de comércio eletrônico. / Regarding technological and economic development, which made communication process easier and increased purchasing power, credit card transactions have become the primary payment method in national and international retailers (Bolton e Hand , 2002). In this scenario, as the number of transactions by credit card grows, more opportunities are created for fraudsters to produce new ways of fraud, resulting in large losses for the financial system (Chan et al. , 1999). Fraud indexes have shown which e-commerce transactions are riskier than card present transactions, since those do not use secure and efficient processes to authenticate the cardholder, such as using personal identification number (PIN). Due to fraudsters adapt quickly to fraud prevention measures, statistical models for fraud detection need to be adaptable and flexible to change over time in a dynamic way. Raftery et al. (2010) developed a method called Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA), which implements a process of continuous updating over time. In this thesis, we develop DMA models within electronic transactions coming from ecommerce environment, which incorporate the trends and characteristics of fraud in each period of analysis. We have also developed classic logistic regression models in order to compare their performances in the fraud detection processes. The database used for the experiment was provided by a electronic payment service company. The experiment shows that DMA models present better results than classic logistic regression models in respect to the analysis of the area under the ROC curve (AUC) and F measure. The F measure for the DMA was 58% while the classic logistic regression model was 29%. For the AUC, the DMA model reached 93% and the classical model reached 84%. Considering the results for DMA models, we can conclude that its update over time characteristic makes a large difference when it comes to the analysis of fraud data, which undergo behavioral changes continuously. Thus, its application has proved to be appropriate for the detection process of fraudulent transactions in the e-commerce environment.
79

Investigation into methods of predicting income from credit card holders using panel data

Osipenko, Denys January 2018 (has links)
A credit card as a banking product has a dual nature both as a convenient loan and a payment tool. Credit card profitability prediction is a complex problem because of the variety of the card holders' behaviour patterns, a fluctuating balance, and different sources of interest and transactional income. The state of a credit card account depends on the type of card usage and payments delinquency, and can be defined as inactive, transactor, revolver, delinquent, and default. The proposed credit cards profit prediction model consists of four stages: i) utilisation rate and interest rate income prediction, ii) non-interest rate income prediction, iii) account state prediction with conditional transition probabilities, and iv) the aggregation of the partial models into total income estimation. This thesis describes an approach to credit card account-level profitability prediction based on multistate and multistage conditional probabilities models with different types of income and compares methods for the most accurate predictions. We use application, behavioural, card state, and macroeconomic characteristics as predictors. This thesis contains nine chapters: Introduction, Literature Review, six chapters giving descriptions of the data, methodologies and discussions of the results of the empirical investigation, and Conclusion. Introduction gives the key points and main aims of the current research and describes the general schema of the total income prediction model. Literature Review proposes a systematic analysis of academic work on loan profit modelling and highlights the gaps in the application of profit scoring to credit cards income prediction. Chapter 3 describes the data sample and gives the overview of characteristics. Chapter 4 is dedicated to the prediction of the credit limit utilisation and contains the comparative analysis of the predictive accuracy of different regression models. We apply five methods such as i) linear regression, ii) fractional regression, iii) beta-regression, iv) beta-transformation, and v) weighted logistic regression with data binary transformation for utilisation rate prediction for one- and two-stage models. Chapters 5 and 6 are dedicated to modelling the transition probabilities between credit card states. Chapter 5 describes the general model setups, model building methodology such as transition probability prediction with conditional binary logistic, ordinal, and multinomial regressions, the data sample description, the univariate analysis of predictors. Chapter 6 discusses regression estimation results for all types of regression and a comparative analysis of the models. Chapter 7 describes an approach to the non-interest rate income prediction and contains a comparative analysis of panel data regression techniques such as pooled and four random effect methods. We consider two sources of non-interest income generation: i) interchange fees and foreign exchange fees from transactions via pointof- sales (POS) and ii) ATM fees from cash withdrawals. We compare the predictive accuracy of a one-stage approach, which means the usage of a single linear model for the income amount estimation, and a two-stage approach, which means that the income amount conditional on the probability of POS and ATM transaction. Chapter 8 aggregates the results from the partial models into a single model for total income estimation. We assume that a credit card account does not have a single particular state and a single behavioural type in the future, but has a chance to move to any of possible states. The income prediction model is selected according to these states, and the transition probabilities are used as weights for the particular interest rate and non-interest rate income prediction models. Conclusion highlights the contributions of this research. We propose an innovative methodological approach for credit card income prediction as a system of models, which considers the estimation of the income from different sources and then aggregates the income estimations weighted by the states transition probabilities. The results of comparative analysis of regression methods for: i) utilization rate of credit limit and ii) non-interest income prediction, iii) the use of panel data with pooled and random effect for profit scoring, and iv) account level non-binary target transition probabilities estimation for credit cards can be used as benchmarks for further research and fill the gaps of empirical investigations in the literature. The estimation of the transition probability between states at the account level helps to avoid the memorylessness property of the Markov Chains approach. We have investigated the significance of predictors for models of this type. The proposed modelling approach can be applied for the development of business strategies such as credit limit management, customer segmentation by the profitability and behavioural type.
80

Financial inclusion and electronic payments: explaining electronic payments in Brazil with principal components analysis and Sarimax models / A inclusão financeira e o setor de pagamentos eletrônicos: um estudo dos meios de pagamentos eletrônicos no Brasil através da análise de componentes principais e modelos Sarimax

Mariz, Frederic Auguste Arnaud Rozeira de Sampaio 27 October 2017 (has links)
Financial inclusion is a public policy objective that fosters development through access to financial services for all. Financial inclusion can be defined as access, usage and quality of financial services. Inclusion of individuals and small enterprises has made considerable progress but it has also reached excesses in some situations. Regulatory changes and technological innovation have helped the expansion of financial services. Our contribution to the literature is threefold. First, we expand the large body of research that focuses on financial inclusion based on access to credit, through our analysis of payments. We provide an unique analysis of the quality dimension of payments, which we define as a catalyst between the access and usage dimensions. Second, we provide a detailed analysis of the Brazilian payment market, which transacts close to $400bn per year, in the scarce literature on developing countries. Third, we isolate the determinants of electronic payments through statistical methods, including a principal component analysis and auto regressive models (SARIMA, SARIMAX), which have not yet been used by researchers. We find that four macro characteristicshave a strong explanatory power: bank credit card lending, active population, retail sales and cash-in-circulation. Suprisingly, we find that cash-in-circulation presents a positive relationship with electronic payments, suggesting a possible distrust of citizens towards the banking system, high levels of informality, and shedding a new light on the precautionary principle described by Keynes. Our analysis is based on monthly deflated card payment data for Brazil from January 2007 to March 2017. / A Inclusão financeira é um objetivo de política pública que procura desenvolvimento através do acesso de todos aos serviços financeiros. Esse conceito pode ser definido com as suas três dimensões de acesso, uso e qualidade dos serviços. A inclusão de indivíduos e empresas conheceu uma melhora significativa, e em algum casos, apresentou excessos. Adaptações regulatórias e inovação tecnológica serviram de pano de fundo para a inclusão. Apresentamos as três contribuições da nossa pesquisa. Primeiro, existe ampla literatura sobre inclusão financeira com foco em crédito, e apresentamos um estudo original sobre pagamentos e sua dimensão de qualidade, definida como o catalisador entre acesso e uso. Segundo: nossa pesquisa apresenta uma análise única do setor de pagamentos no Brasil, um setor com faturamento de mais de R$1.2 trilhões de reais anuais, no âmbito da escassa literatura sobre economias em desenvolvimento. A terceira contribuição apresenta os determinantes dos meios de pagamentos eletrônicos, usando modelos estatísticos originais, como componentes principais e modelos auto regressivos (SARIMA, SARIMAX), que não tinham sido usados na literatura de inclusão financeira. Identificamos quatro características com significância para explicar meios eletrônicos: crédito bancário, população ativa, vendas do varejo e dinheiro em posse das famílias. De maneira surpreendente, dinheiro em posse das famílias apresentou correlação positiva com meios eletrônicos, sinalizando uma desconfiança dos consumidores com o setor bancário ou um maior grau de informalidade da economia brasileira, e trazendo uma interpretação original ao princípio de precaução descrito por Keynes. Nossa pesquisa se baseou em dados agregados e deflacionados de pagamentos para o Brasil entre Janeiro de 2007 e Março de 2017.

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