We examine net lending/net borrowing and the underlying debt dynamics at the sectoral level in the European Union. Saving and investment patterns indicate that there have been considerable deleveraging efforts since the start of the global financial crisis, particularly in the nonfinancial corporate and household sectors. In many EU countries, however, this decline in credit transactions has not yet led to a significant reduction of sectoral debt-to-GDP ratios. Subdued output growth and low or even negative inflation rates have undermined the deleveraging process and increased real debt burdens in a number of European economies. Since these are often the countries that had experienced strong credit booms prior to the crisis, rebalancing needs are likely to persist and may be a significant drag on the recovery in the near future. Furthermore, most of the ongoing rebalancing - both in terms of debt levels and current account deficits - is based on a sharp decline in investment rather than an increase in saving, which might lead to lower potential growth in the future. Recent developments may even jeopardize the catching-up process of peripheral euro area countries and non-euro area EU Member States in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe.

The purpose of my thesis is to explain step by step what caused the present Financial Crisis which the world is experiencing and its development. It is a preview to know how the crisis started rather than its affects. I will start my analysis with broad explanation and then narrow it down to concrete examples.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(経済学) / 甲第18638号 / 経博第500号 / 新制||経||271(附属図書館) / 31552 / 京都大学大学院経済学研究科経済学専攻 / (主査)教授 照山 博司, 教授 柴田 章久, 准教授 敦賀 貴之 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Economics / Kyoto University / DGAM

本篇論文使用2001年到2012年的美國公司作為研究樣本，探討借款公司在金融危機下的表現，是否與借款公司的融資方式有關。實證結果顯示在金融危機下確實僅能透過貸款融資的公司表現會較差，因為在金融危機時，會造成金融體系的信用緊縮，所以導致受金融危機影響的銀行會減少借出量並增加貸款利差。另外，融資彈性較佳的公司似乎表現沒有特別突出，可能隱含在金融危機時也無法在貸款市場上獲得一些好處。 / In this paper, we use U.S. company data from 2001 to 2012 as the research sample to examine the relationship between borrowers’ performance and borrowers’ financing methods in the financial crisis. Empirical results show that the performance of borrowers which can only use loan financing is the worst in the financial crisis. There is credit crunch in the financial system because of the financial crisis, and the banks which are affected by financial crisis will reduce the lending amount and increase loan spreads. In addition, the performance of borrowers with more financing methods did not seem particularly prominent, and we think it implies borrowers with more financing methods could not get benefits from the loan market in financial crisis.

La finance solidaire se caractérise par un système de relations de financement entre des agents économiques : une relation de confiance découlant d'espaces de socialisation, une relation d'accompagnement facilitant la construction d'anticipations convergentes, et une relation financière stricto sensu. Elle s'inscrit dans les mutations socioéconomiques institutionnelles qui affectent l'offre et la demande de financement. Elle construit de nouvelles réponses à destination des agents productifs exclus du fait des transformations de la régulation financière, prenant ainsi en charge des espaces de financement périphériques nécessaire à la durabilité du système financier dominant. La finance solidaire est mise en œuvre par des organisations diversifiées partageant des caractéristiques particulières. Elle est l'expression d'une convention de financement solidaire territorialisée qui repose sur des modalités d'acquisition de l'information à la fois personnalisées et normalisées, sur des garanties collectives et sur l'association de différentes parties prenantes (associations, banques coopératives et lucratives, entreprises, collectivités territoriales). La diversité et l'articulation de ressources de nature différente engagent la finance solidaire à ancrer son action dans un compromis entre plusieurs logiques d'actions, aux fondements plus ou moins stables. Du fait de cette nature partenariale, les organisations de finance solidaire évoluent dans un environnement non concurrentiel qui assure néanmoins des moyens de financement pour la re-dynamisation d'une partie des activités économiques de proximité. Elle contribue ainsi à l'adaptation du système financier tout en proposant de diffuser des règles de financement innovantes. / ‘Solidarity-based finance' is characterized by a system of funding partnerships between economical operators : a trust-based relation emerging from social interactions, a stewardship enabling convergent anticipations, and a financial partnership. It operates in socio-economic institutional mutations which affect the supply and demand of funding. It offers new opportunities to productive operators excluded by financial regulation transformations. Therefore, peripheral financial activities required to sustain the dominant financial system are taken into consideration. The ‘solidarity-based finance' is implemented by various organizations sharing specific characteristics. This unique concept is based upon territorialized solidarity-based funding agreements that are defined by information acquiring mechanisms (which are individualized but nonetheless normalized); collective commitments and association of various stakeholders (civil society, cooperative banks, local authorities, corporations). The diversity of resources and their interactions compel ‘solidarity-based finance' to anchor its role in a mediation between several policies, with more or less solid ground rules. Because of this collaborative nature, ‘solidarity-based finance' organizations operate in a non-competitive environment. However, they also offer means of funding for the reinstatement of part of local economy. It so contributes to the mutations of the wider financial system while promoting innovative means of funding.

This diploma work is about real estate market in the Czech Republic and Great Britain. For comparison of these two markets and understanding how the current economic crisis has influenced them, I tried to compare the following indicators: house prices, inflation, average earnings, balance of trade, interest rates, homeownership and mortgage approvals. Housing bubbles in the USA have deliberately created the damage inflicted by companies shifting production abroad in an attempt to boost profits. As these bubbles burst, economic growth in many developed countries will inevitably tumble. Interviews with real estate and development Company in the Czech Republic and Great Britain helped me find out trends affecting property investment and its potentials. The marked factors which, I believe, will affect property investment prices now and in the future, are socio-economic trends, demographics, infrastructure, jobs and regeneration of the area. The property market has been changed from the market of supplier to the market of demander. Real estate and development Companies have to change their way of selling and offer complex and professional services. It is expected the real estate market will recovery slowly.

Cette thèse commence, en théorie, avec le caractère informatif de signaux lorsque l'information est imparfaite, suivis par les applications sur les marchés du crédit et du travail. Dans le chapitre 2 nous montrons que le critère de Blackwell peut impliquer la dispersion des espérances conditionnelles -le critère de « supermodular dispersion » proposé par Ganuza et Penalva (2010), uniquement lorsque le signal est binaire. Les liens entre la dispersion des espérances conditionnelles et le critère de Persico peuvent être construits mais avec des restrictions fortes. Dans le chapitre 3, nous considérons une relation prêteur-emprunteur où les emprunteurs peuvent choisir de divulguer l'information en payant un coût non négligeable. La décision de la révélation d'informations est endogénisée. Nous montrons qu'il existe seulement équilibre opaque (transparent) lorsque le taux d'intérêt sans risque est assez faible (élevé); il y a des équilibres multiples lorsque le taux d'intérêt est intermédiaire et resserrement du crédit peut résulter. Le modèle est ensuite étendu à un contexte OLG et nous montrons que le marché peut converger soit à un état stationnaire opaque ou transparent, et peut avoir des oscillations permanentes entre les états différents pour certaines configurations de paramètres. Dans le chapitre 4, nous étudions l'impact de la discrimination à l'embauche sur les compétences de la décision d'investissement de travailleurs dans un modèle de recherche dirigée. Le groupe discriminé ou le groupe favorisé peut sous-investir dans les compétences à l'équilibre. Chaque fois qu'un groupe de travailleurs sous-investit, l'autre groupe reste hautement qualifié et le profit des entreprises est inférieur par rapport au niveau à l'économie où la discrimination est absente. / This thesis starts, theoretically, with the informativeness of signals when information is imperfect, followed by the applications on the credit and tabor markets. In chapter 2 we show that Blackwell's informativeness criterion can imply the dispersion of the conditional expectations - the supermodular dispersion criterion proposed by Ganuza and Penalva (2010), only when the signal is binary. Links between the dispersion of the conditional expectations and Persico's accuracy criterion can be built up but with strong restrictions. In chapter 3, we consider a lender-borrower relationship where borrowers can choose to disclose their private information by paying a non-negligible cost. The decision of information revelation is endogenized, and so is the market opacity. We show that there exists only opaque (transparent) equilibrium when the safe interest rate is low (high) enough; there are multiple equilibrium when interest rate is intermediate and credit crunch may happen. The model is then extended to an OLG context and we show that the market may converge either to an opaque or a transparent stationary state, or, for some configurations of parameters, have permanent oscillations between different states. In chapter 4 we study the impact of hiring discrimination on workers' skill investment decision in a directed search model. Both the discriminated and favored group can underinvest in skills in equilibrium. Whenever one group underinvest, the other remain high skilled and firms suffer from lower profit compared to the economy where discrimination is absent.

Credit risk measurement and management has great importance in credit market. Credit derivative products are the major hedging instruments in this market and credit default swap contracts (CDSs) are the most common type of these instruments. As observed in credit crunch (credit crisis) that has started from the United States and expanded all over the world, especially crisis of Iceland, CDS premiums (prices) are better indicative of credit risk than credit ratings. Therefore, CDSs are important indicators for credit risk of an obligor and thus these products should be understood by market participants well enough. In this thesis, initially, advanced credit risk models firsts, the structural (firm value) models, Merton Model and Black-Cox constant barrier model, and the intensity-based (reduced-form) models, Jarrow-Turnbull and Cox models, are studied. For each credit risk model studied, survival probabilities are calculated. After explaining the basic structure of a single name CDS contract, by the help of the general pricing formula of CDS that result from the equality of in and out cash flows of these contracts, CDS price for each structural models (Merton model and Black-Cox constant barrier model) and CDS price for general type of intensity based models are obtained. Before the conclusion, default intensities are obtained from the distribution functions of default under two basic structural models / Merton and Black-Cox constant barrier. Finally, we conclude our work with some inferences and proposals.

近年來由於國民所得的提升、外匯增加，消費貸款相關法令鬆綁及政府政策刺激消費下，臺灣信用卡市場在外商銀行、新銀行的強力業務主導下，從1991年到2005年歷經了蓬勃發展、同業之間的激烈競爭、現金卡的發行加入競爭行列、整合型小額信用貸款的竄出，讓金融業以市場行銷為業務主導下，逐漸放鬆銀行的授信政策。在市場競爭及飽和下，消費者過度地消費和整體經濟持續低迷，終於引爆了嚴重的信用卡、現金卡逾期無法繳款的雙卡卡債問題。本研究欲從信用卡的成長、輔助現金卡的加入競爭行列，由各代表性的銀行發展中，探討出發生嚴重逾期放款的原因，再使用各銀行提供給金融監督管理委員會的重大資訊逐一分析，作為佐證之依據。 研究結果如下: 1. 銀行業為了業務成長，並未正確及適時地看待相關風險的控管，不斷的簡化辦卡程序、提高信用額度、增加信貸總額，以期增加信貸客戶數及客戶忠誠度。 2. 銀行業在擴張業務的同時沒有充分考慮到客戶的真實收入與負債比例，進而在發生嚴重的信貸危機時，違約比率不斷增加，銀行業亦承受了相當大打銷呆帳的金額。 3. 政府主導的統一債務協商機制，各銀行已逐漸從混亂中，走上標準作業，協商成功比率陸續提升中。未來卡片市場可否走向更健全：金融業、全民、主管機關都應更謹慎地處理消費者信用貸款的問題。 / Credit card market, driven by foreign banks and local new banks, had been boosting from 1991 to 2005 derived from GDP growth, hike of foreign exchange reserves, laws ease up, and government policies creating friendlier environment to boost consumer spending. In the same time, banks’ credit policies were loosened due to fierce competition among credit card issuers, issuances of cash card and integrated unsecured loan led by sales and marketing. Given the situation of over-banking and competition in credit card market, consumers overspent under the consistent economy recession triggered credit crunch for credit card and cash card, so called “Credit card and cash card lending crash”. This research intends to search for the root of this credit crunch by investigating the history of the growth of credit card business and issuance of cash card of major players in the market. Furthermore, this research also evidences the concluded root reasons by analyzing the important information reported to FSC by all the banks. The conclusions of the investigation are as follows: 1. Banking industry overemphasized on business growth so the related risks were not properly and timely controlled by simplifying application procedures and increasing credit lines hoping to enhance number of customers and strengthen customers’ loyalty. 2. Banking industry ignored the percentage of customers’ real income and liability while expanding their business rapidly. It further deepened the delinquency ratio and card issuers wrote off enormous amount of bad debts when credit crunch happened. 3. Debt Negotiation Plan (DNP) led by government enabled banks to set up “Standard Operation Procedures” (SOP) which helped banks to resume their card business back to normal. The success ratio of DNP is increasing gradually. The future of credit card market all depends on how banking industry, consumers, and government deal with the issues on consumer unsecured loans.

The credit crunch that started the 9th of August 2007 is generally viewed as the most significant crisis to affect the financial markets and the global economy since the 1930s.The UK financial sector was heavily hit by the crisis which resulted in a dry up in lending and left a black hole in the British banks‟ finances. During the last quarter of 2010 the GDP shank unexpectedly with 0.5 percent from the third quarter which created concerns about going back into the recession. Contrarily, for Swedish economy 2010 was an impressing year with an unexpected GDP growth of 7, 3 percent in the last quarter.The purpose of this study is to analyse how the finance crisis has affected the leading banks‟ performance within the two countries and see whether the differences in values can explain the difference in GDP growth during the last quarter of 2010. The analyse is performed through a financial ratio analysis of the different banks.The final results of the research indicates to that the Swedish banks have been more profitable, have had a more secure and higher quality of lending and more capacity to lower cost related to income than the British banks. The more distinctive negative influence is mostly based on the larger amount of credit losses the British banks had to experience which contributed to their significant decrease in earnings per share which created scepticism on the credit market followed by a severe slowdown in consumption and in GDP growth. Since the credit losses never got to same levels in Sweden as in the UK the scepticism of the Swedish banking system did not affect the reduction in credit use and house prises to the same extent and GDP growth could recover back to normal levels sooner than in the UK.