Orientador: Rachel Meneguello / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Filosofia e Ciências Humanas / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-26T05:44:13Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 FortiNeto_Octavio_M.pdf: 2173532 bytes, checksum: 963976fc6f40603ae3158ade312723cd (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014 / Resumo: Este trabalho tem como objetivo demonstrar os posicionamentos partidários das duas maiores agremiações e grupos transnacionais do Parlamento Europeu em relação à crise europeia, que se refletiu na área econômica, financeira, social e de emprego, no período entre 2009 e 2011. Para isto, esta dissertação analisou os programas partidários do S&D e do PPE-DC e seus documentos produzidos em quatro comissões do Parlamento Europeu. A principal conclusão dessa dissertação é que a ideologia foi importante para definir posicionamentos observados no âmbito das agremiações transnacionais. A partir desta descoberta, identificou-se também que a agremiação transnacional de esquerda e seu respectivo grupo no Parlamento Europeu produziram respostas políticas relacionadas a elementos da Terceira Via. Com referência à direita, descobriu-se que ainda persiste a defesa de políticas neoliberais. Outro achado importante foi que embora ambos os grupos apresentassem respostas e soluções diferenciadas para a crise, votaram em conjunto em muitos relatórios finais, mostrando que em âmbito transnacional os grupos tendem a cooperar mais do que competir / Abstract: This research aims to demonstrate the party positions of the two major parties and transnational groups in the European Parliament in relation to the European crisis, which was reflected in the economic, financial, social and employment areas in the period between 2009 and 2011. To this end, this dissertation analyzed the party programs of the S&D and EPP-CD and their documents produced in four Parliamentary Committees of the European Parliament. The main conclusion is that the ideology was important to define positions observed in the context of transnational parties. From this finding, we also identified that the transnational leftist party and its respective group party in the EP produced political responses related to elements of the Third Way. In regards the right wing, it still defends neoliberal responses to the crisis. Another important finding was that although both groups presented different answers and solutions to the crisis, they voted together on many final reports, showing that at transnational dimension they tend to cooperate more than compete / Mestrado / Ciencia Politica / Mestre em Ciência Política

The paper provides an explanation of the mechanisms underlying trade roots of the contagion effects emanating from the recent turmoils. It is argued that under demand uncertainty risk averse behavior of firms provides a basis for international trade. The paper shows by means of a simple two-country model that risk averse firms operating in perfectly competitive markets with uncertainty of demand tend to diversify markets what gives a basis for international trade in identical commodities even between identical countries. It is shown that such trade may be welfare improving despite efficiency losses due to cross-hauling and transportation costs. The analysis reveals that change of the expectations concerning market conditions caused by the turmoil in the neighbor country (i.e., shift in the perception of market conditions) may lead to macroeconomic destabilization (increase in price level and unemployment, worsening of terms of trade, and deterioration of trade balance). / Series: Discussion Papers of the Institute for Economic Geography and GIScience

Les travaux menés dans le cadre de cette thèse consistent à développer un modèle permettant d'évaluer et d'améliorer la résilience d'un système de transport ferroviaire de masse. L'état de l'art des approches de quantification de la résilience a montré leurs limites quant à leur adéquation au système de transport ferroviaire de masse. Le système modélisé dans le cadre de cette étude se compose des quatre sous-systèmes respectivement de transport, d'énergie, de télécommunication et d'organisation. La caractérisation et la modélisation des interdépendances intra et inter sous-systèmes conduisent à mieux comprendre et étudier ce type de système. Des indicateurs de performance adaptés à ce système (le nombre de passagers arrivés à destination, le retard cumulé et la charge des passagers) permettent de quantifier la performance puis la résilience du système. Une application de ce modèle est proposée sur le réseau de transport ferroviaire de Paris. Par la suite, la modélisation des perturbations et des plans de gestion de crise ont permis d'évaluer l'impact/l'efficacité de ces plans de gestion pour les améliorer. A partir de ce modèle, un simulateur a été développé, et une procédure de mise en place d’une démarche de résilience de bout en bout dans un système de transport ferroviaire de masse est proposée. Les conditions d'exploitation sont intégrées dans les indicateurs topologiques des systèmes de transport que l'on trouve dans la littérature via le modèle. Les indicateurs de résilience ainsi obtenus se montrent plus pertinents que ces indicateurs topologiques usuels / This thesis aims to develop a model that assesses and improves the resilience of mass railway transportation system. A state of the art on resilience quantification approaches in sociotechnical systems reveals some limitations relative to their adequacy to the mass railway transportation systems. The model developed in this work is helping to give some answers to these limitations. We identify and develop four interrelated subsystems: transportation, power, telecommunication and organization subsystems. We also characterized and modeled these subsystems' interdependencies. This allows us to get insight into the system holistically. We also propose and quantify some performance indicators of this system. These performance indicators are used afterwards to quantify the resilience of the system. The number of passengers that reach their destination station, passenger delay and passenger load are performance indicators used in this work. The model is applied to the Paris mass railway transportation system. After modeling perturbations, we also assess the extent to which some crisis management plans are taken into account in the model. Then, a simulator has been developed, and an approach that aims to implement an end-to-end resilient system is proposed. Operating conditions of railway transportation system are incorporated into topological indicators of transportation systems found in the literature through the model. This allows us to show the relevance of these operating-conditions dependent indicators relative to the usual topological indicators of the studied network

This thesis investigates the impact of applying different covariance modelling techniques on the efficiency of asset portfolio performance. The scope of this thesis is limited to the exploration of theoretical aspects of portfolio optimisation rather than developing a useful tool for portfolio managers. Future work may entail taking the results from this work further and producing a more practical tool from a fund management perspective. The contributions made by this thesis to the knowledge of the subject are that it extends literature by applying a number of different covariance models to a unique dataset that focuses on the 2007 global financial crisis. The thesis also contributes to the literature as the methodology applied also enables a distinction to be made in respect to developed and emerging/frontier regional markets. This has resulted in the following findings: First, it identifies the impact of the 2007–2009 financial crisis on time-varying correlations and volatilities as measured by the dynamic conditional correlation model (Engle 2002). This is examined from the perspective of a United States (US) investor given that the crisis had its origin in the US market. Prima facie evidence is found that economic structural adjustment has resulted in long-term increases in the correlation between the US and other markets. In addition, the magnitude of the increase in correlation is found to be greater in respect to emerging/frontier markets than in respect to developed markets. Second, the long-term impact of the 2007–2009 financial crisis on time-varying correlations and volatilities is further examined by comparing estimates produced by different covariance models. The selected time-varying models (DCC, copula DCC, GO-GARCH: MM, ICA, NLS, ML; EWMA and SMA) produce statistically significantly different correlation and volatility estimates. This finding has potential implication for the estimation of efficient portfolios. Third, the different estimates derived using the selected covariance models are found to have a significant impact on the calculated weights and turnovers of efficient portfolios. Interestingly, however, there was no significant difference between their respective returns. This is the main finding of the thesis, which has potentially very important implications for portfolio management.

Fluctuations in the stock market through economic crises, risks of deflation and liquidity traps are critical in the analysis of risk, which cause discrepancies in the execution of a particular scope in the equities market. The crisis in subprime insolvency in 2007/2008 which had a major impact on financial markets founded further discussions in relation to risk control in the decision making of investors. In the stock market risk analysis seeks to assist the investor in making decisions, for it makes use of statistical methods and tools to try to predict market movements. Based on these and previous statements in order to assist investors in making decisions through an economic crisis, this is an exploratory study aimed to develop and train two neural networks with differentiated learning without the problem of "black box" methods to compare which of the two has better forecast in periods of economic crisis. As input variables for the neural networks used the return of the volume of weekly Ibovespa in the period 12/08/2002 to 30/05/2011 and a setup developed from the Elliott Wave Theory. That is, these two neural networks were developed, trained and validated to predict market movements when it presents oscillations from an economic crisis. As mentioned earlier to validate the study compared the power of explanation of two methods before a point of probable attack. We conclude, therefore, that the analogy made for the creation of the theory of Elliott wave theory of psychological behavior of the masses and the Fibonacci sequence proved unable to provide for oscillations of the market in a series corresponding to an economic crisis. It was concluded, too, that neural networks with unsupervised learning using temporal variables as input variables has a higher prediction in training, but lower than most crucial step in the validation of systems. / As oscilações no mercado acionário por meio de crises econômicas, riscos de deflação e armadilhas de liquidez são pontos críticos na análise de risco, que ocasionam discrepâncias na execução de um determinado escopo no mercado de renda variável. A crise da inadimplência do subprime em 2007/2008 que obteve uma das maiores repercussões nos mercados financeiros fundou novas discussões em relação ao controle de risco na tomada de decisão do investidor. No mercado acionário, a análise de risco busca auxiliar o investidor na tomada de decisões, para isso utiliza-se de ferramentas e métodos estatísticos para tentar predizer os movimentos do mercado. Com base nestas afirmações anteriores e com o intuito de auxiliar o investidor na tomada de decisão mediante a uma crise econômica, este trabalho, do tipo exploratório, objetivou-se desenvolver e treinar duas redes neurais com aprendizados diferenciados sem o problema da caixa preta dos métodos a fim de comparar quais das duas tem melhor previsão em períodos de crises econômicas. Como variáveis de entrada para as redes neurais utilizou-se o retorno do volume semanais do Ibovespa no período de 12/08/2002 até 30/05/2011 e um setup desenvolvido a partir da Teoria das Ondas de Elliott. Ou seja, estas duas redes neurais foram desenvolvidas, treinadas e validadas para antever os movimentos do mercado quando este apresentar oscilações provenientes de uma crise econômica. Como mencionado anteriormente para validar o estudo, foi comparado o poder de explicação dos dois métodos, antes de um ponto de uma provável crise. Conclui-se, portanto, que a analogia feita para a criação da teoria das ondas de Elliott entre a teoria do comportamento psicológico das massas e a seqüência de Fibonacci se mostrou incapaz de prever oscilações do mercado em uma série correspondente a uma crise econômica. Conclui-se, também, que redes neurais com aprendizados não supervisionados que utilizam variáveis temporais como variáveis de entrada tem a previsão superior no treinamento, mas inferiores na etapa mais determinante a validação das redes.

This thesis used the events of the 2007 financial crisis as a means of being able to add to the research already done on South African unit trusts. The objective was to study the risk-adjusted performance of South African general equity unit trusts against the market during the period between 2005 and 2014. This period took into account the bull market preceding the financial crisis, the market crash of 2007 and the subsequent market recovery that followed. Data was obtained online through the I-Net BFA data base and included 161 general equity unit trusts that contained a full data set. In addition to the general equity unit trusts, the Satrix40 was studied to compare a passive unit trust against those that are actively managed. The 10 year Government bond was also used as a risk-free rate to add to the comparisons of performance results. The Sharpe, Treynor and Jensen measures were applied to the data with the results adding more support to the opinions that markets are fairly efficient and active investment strategies are being challenged by consistently well performing passive investments. Throughout the duration of the study, taking into account the varying economic cycles, the Satrix40 passive investment showed the best average overall return on simple return calculations as well as during the risk-adjusted measurements. In support of active investment management, unit trusts showed their best relative performance figures during the period of the financial crisis. This suggested that active financial managers were able to make the active calls necessary to weather the storm of the financial crisis. While the study did have its limitations, the results it produced are intended to offer investors further knowledge in enabling them to make more educated investment decisions in the future.

The violation of societal shared convictions is a phenomenon which can occur in different situations of daily living. Previous research investigated this phenomenon in various domains (e.g., morality and competence) separately while neglecting the similarities. This dissertation’s basic assumption is that violations of societal shared convictions in various domains lead to the same state, namely a legitimacy crisis, as the construct of legitimacy is closely related to social norms and values. A legitimacy crisis is an individual’s perception that his or her actions or characteristics are not or less appropriate as they are discrepant to the societal shared convictions in the given situation. Based on the general assumption that legitimacy crises go beyond existing theories on the violation of societal shared convictions, this work contributes to three general issues: First, it provides a theoretical integration into and continuation of overarching theoretical frameworks of legitimacy, discrepancy and threat. Second, it conducts an empirical examination of legitimacy crises throughout the two main domains of morality and competence, focusing especially on the mediating function of legitimacy crises between the discrepancy and subsequent consequences. Third, it contributes a theoretical development and empirical examination of emotional and behavioral consequences of legitimacy crises across the two main domains of morality and competence. To address these issues, this dissertation discusses the general meaning of legitimacy in the context of social and organizational psychology research and especially the different perspectives on legitimacy, thereby working out a deeper understanding of the self and legitimacy. Furthermore, this work demonstrates that experiencing legitimacy crises is threatening for one´s self as it followed by specific emotional and behavioral reactions. To empirically investigate the theoretical considerations, nine studies in various domains with different methods (scenarios, recall, face-to-face interactions and field studies) were conducted. The four studies in Chapter 4, four studies generally focus on the construct of legitimacy crises in the context of morality and competence, and examine the mediating function of a legitimacy crisis on the emotional and behavioral consequences. While participants in the first two studies worked on a scenario about a psychology intern in a hospital, participants in the last two studies dealt with unmoral behavior (in-basket exercise and a recall task about an unmoral behavior). Independent from the domain, all four studies of Chapter 4 provide evidence that legitimacy crises are judgments of a perceived violation of societal shared convictions. The results show the expected mediating function of legitimacy crises between the perception of the violation of societal shared convictions and moral emotions (guilt and shame). Whereas feelings of guilt led to an increase of moral behavior, feelings of shame decreased moral behavior. As an example for the moral domain, Chapter 5 takes a closer look on the role of bystanders in the context of social exclusion. Bystanders’ inactions violate the social norms of inclusion and equality. Until now, research on social exclusion has focused primarily on targets and perpetrators, demonstrating that both experience social exclusion situations as threatening. This chapter wants to expand this knowledge and improve the understanding of the psychological processes of bystanders to potentially facilitate interventions for social exclusion situations. The results of three studies with varying methods (recall and face-to-face interaction paradigm) strengthen the general findings of Chapter 4. Bystanders who evaluate their inaction as less appropriate report more feelings of shame and guilt which lead to more social defense reactions compared to targets. To extend the general findings on competence in Chapter 4, Chapter 6 exemplarily examines leaders who perceive that they are not able to meet the expectations of the leadership role in two field studies. The findings demonstrate that leaders, who perceived to be violating the societal expectations towards their role as leader, evaluated their actions as less appropriate thereby eliciting a higher extent of job insecurity that led to more silence behavior. Moreover, the results show that leader silence and follower silence are negatively related, especially when the leader is perceived as unjust. In line with the findings of Chapter 4 and 5, the construct of legitimacy crises is also a relevant mediator in the context of leadership. In general, the theoretical considerations and the empirical findings of this dissertation demonstrate the important role of the construct of legitimacy crises in various domains and emphasize its mediating function between the violation of societal shared convictions and the subsequent emotional and behavioral reactions. The findings provide theoretical and practical implications. To understand the underlying process of discrepancies with normative standards, the Self-Standards Model and the construct of legitimacy crises provide an important theoretical framework, which works independent from the specific domain. Understanding legitimacy crises provides starting points for the development of interventions for people experiencing legitimacy crises. / Die Verletzung von gesellschaftlich geteilten Überzeugungen ist ein Phänomen, welches in verschiedenen Situationen des täglichen Lebens auftreten kann. Die bisherige Forschung hat dieses Phänomen in unterschiedlichen Bereichen (bspw., Moral und Kompetenz) getrennt betrachtet und mögliche Gemeinsamkeiten vernachlässigt. Diese Dissertation geht davon aus, dass die Verletzung von gesellschaftlich geteilten Überzeugungen in unterschiedlichen Bereichen zu dem gleichen Zustand führt, einer Legitimitätskrise, da gerade das Konzept der Legitimität mit gesellschaftlichen Normen und Werten eng verknüpft ist. Eine Legitimitätskrise ist die Wahrnehmung eines Individuums, dass deren Handlungen oder Eigenschaften in Bezug zu gesellschaftlichen Überzeugungen in einer bestimmten Situation gar nicht oder wenig angemessen sind. Ausgehend von der generellen Annahme, dass Legitimitätskrisen über bestehende Theorien im Rahmen der Verletzung von gesellschaftlichen Überzeugungen hinausgehen, trägt diese Arbeit zu drei generellen Punkten bei: Erstens, eine theoretische Integration und Weiterführung von übergreifenden theoretischen Rahmenmodellen in Bereichen Legitimität, Diskrepanzen und Bedrohungen. Zweitens, eine empirische Untersuchung von Legitimitätskrisen in den beiden zentralen Bereichen Moral und Kompetenz. Drittens, theoretische Entwicklung und empirische Untersuchung von emotionalen und behavioralen Konsequenzen von Legitimitätskrisen in den beiden Bereichen Moral und Kompetenz. Zur Erreichung dieser Punkte wird im Rahmen der Dissertation zunächst die generelle Bedeutung von Legitimität im Kontext sozial und organisationspsychologischer Forschung diskutiert, besonders die verschiedenen Perspektiven von Legitimität. Dies dient vor allem der Herausarbeitung eines tieferen Verständnisses von Selbst und Legitimität. Des Weiteren geht diese Arbeit näher darauf ein, dass Legitimitätskrisen bedrohlich für das eigene Selbst sind und wie Menschen auf der emotionalen und behavioralen Ebene damit umgehen. Zur empirischen Untersuchung dieser theoretischen Überlegungen wurden neun Studien in unterschiedlichen Bereichen mit verschiedenen Methoden (Szenarien, Erinnerung, direkte Interaktionen und Feldstudien) durchgeführt. Kapitel 4 beschäftigt sich in vier Studien mit dem Konstrukt der Legitimitätskrise im Kontext von Moral und Kompetenz. Dabei wird auch die mediierende Funktion auf emotionale und behaviorale Konsequenzen näher untersucht. Während die Teilnehmer in den ersten beiden Studien an einem Szenario über ein Praktikum in einem Krankenhaus arbeiten, beschäftigen sich die Teilnehmer der letzten beiden Studien mit unmoralischen Verhaltensweisen (Postkorbübung und Erinnerungsaufgabe über unmoralisches Verhalten). Unabhängig vom Bereich legen alle vier Studien in Kapitel 4 nahe, dass Legitimitätskrisen Bewertungen einer wahrgenommenen Verletzung von gesellschaftlich geteilten Überzeugungen sind. Die Ergebnisse zeigen die mediierende Funktion von Legitimitätskrisen zwischen der wahrgenommenen Verletzung gesellschaftlich geteilter Überzeugungen und moralischen Emotionen (Schuld und Scham). Während Gefühle von Schuld zu einem Anstieg von moralischem Verhalten führen, reduzieren Gefühle von Scham moralisches Verhalten. Beispielhaft für den moralischen Bereich, beschäftigt sich Kapitel 5 näher mit der Rolle von Bystandern im Rahmen von Sozialem Ausschluss. Das Nichthandeln von Bystandern verletzt dabei soziale Normen von Inklusion und Gleichheit. Die bisherige Forschung hat sich hauptsächlich mit Opfern und Tätern auseinandergesetzt und zeigt, dass beide Situationen Sozialen Ausschlusses als bedrohlich empfinden. Dieses Kapitel möchte den bisherigen Wissensstand erweitern und die Erkenntnisse über die psychologischen Prozesse bei Bystandern verbessern um mögliche Interventionen daraus ableiten zu können. Die Ergebnisse von drei Studien mit ganz unterschiedlichen Methoden (Erinnerung und direkte Interkation) stärken die Befunde aus Kapitel 4. Im Vergleich zu Opfern bewerten Bystander ihr Nichthandeln als weniger angemessen, berichten mehr Scham und Schuld, was wiederum zu mehr sozialen Verteidigungsreaktionen führt. Kapitel 6 vertieft die generellen Erkenntnisse aus Kapitel 4 im Bereich Kompetenz, indem es sich im Rahmen von zwei Feldstudien exemplarisch mit Führungskräften beschäftigt, welche sich nicht in der Lage sehen, die an sie gestellten Anforderungen zu erfüllen. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass Führungskräfte, die eine Verletzung von gesellschaftlich geteilten Überzeugungen an sich wahrnehmen, ihre Handlungen als weniger angemessen bewerten, was zu einem höheren Ausmaß an Jobunsicherheit führt, dass wiederum Schweigeverhalten erhöht. Außerdem zeigt sich, dass Schweigeverhalten von Führungskräften und Mitarbeitern in einem negativen Zusammenhang steht, vor allem wenn die Führungskraft als ungerecht wahrgenommen wird. Wie in Kapitel 4 und 5 zeigt sich auch hier, dass das Konstrukt der Legitimitätskrisen als relevanter Mediator im Rahmen von Führung angesehen werden kann. Zusammenfassend lässt sich sagen, dass die theoretischen Überlegungen als auch empirischen Befunde dieser Dissertation zeigen, dass das Konstrukt der Legitimitätskrise in verschiedenen Bereichen eine wichtige Rolle spielt, vor allem die mediierende Funktion zwischen Verletzung gesellschaftlich geteilter Überzeugungen und dem unmittelbar nachfolgenden emotionalen und behavioralen Reaktionen. Aus den Ergebnissen lassen sich theoretische und praktische Implikationen ableiten. Um die zugrundeliegenden Prozesse von Diskrepanzen besser verstehen zu können, bietet das Self-Standards Model und das Konstrukt der Legitimitätskrise ein geeignetes Rahmenmodell, welches unabhängig von dem jeweiligen Bereich funktioniert. Des Weiteren liefern diese Erkenntnisse Ansatzpunkte um Interventionen für Menschen entwickeln zu können, deren Legitimitätswahrnehmung in eine Krise geraten ist.

Thesis is dealing with the development of the central banking on the basis of experience from the last decade. Hypothesis is the statement, whether the central banks of the developed economies are increasingly less capable of the effective reactions on the accelerating development of the global economy and their position in the money emission and regulation of the banking sector is and will be more and more weakened by the alternative banking and monetary systems. This hypothesis is successfully disproved because of the behavior of the four chosen central banks which are CNB, FED, ECB and BoJ. The main reason was an increase in their activities and interventions causing among others multiplication of their balance sheets. On the other hand the alternative in the free banking is further from the reality than before. Virtual currencies also did not show threatening growth of the national currencies substitution in the reference period. Thesis also provides insight into new and potentially new instruments of the central banks.

Le premier chapitre de cette thèse étudie l’efficience d’accumulation des RI et de la stérilisation dans les pays dollarisés et endettés, en mesurant le coefficient de stérilisation, et le coefficient de retournement. Ce chapitre explore le lien existant entre les sources des réserves et les dettes externes. En appliquant le modèle de régression 2SLS, nous identifions les variables explicatives qui nous permettent d’estimer les coefficients cités. Les résultats obtenus indiquent que malgré l’application théorique et correcte de la politique de stérilisation, les contraintes économiques contribuent à réduire l’efficience attendue des politiques monétaires. Le deuxième chapitre consiste à envisager les probabilités des pays endettés de tomber en crises financières malgré le fait qu’ils accumulent les réserves internationales agissant en tant que choc modérateur et/ou auto-assurance. Nous utilisons l’Indicateur de Stress Financier ISF, proposé par Balakrishnan et al (2009) et le FMI qui couvre les divers aspects de crises financières. Nous appliquons le modèle Markov Switching à probabilité variée. Nous obtenons comme résultat que les dettes augmentent la probabilité qu’un pays souffre d’une crise financière, par contre, les RI ne procurent pas forcément les « paix » dans l’économie, à l’exception des quelques cas. Cependant, les effets négatif des dettes emportent sur les effets positifs des RI surtout dans les pays relativement plus dollarisés. Le troisième chapitre mesure tout d’abord le degré des indices du trilemme: Stabilité du taux de change, indépendance monétaire et ouverture du compte capital, tout en tenant compte de l’accumulation des ratios RI par rapport au PIB ou Dettes Externes ou Dettes Externes (DE) à court terme. L’évolution des indices du trilemme montre que les pays qui adoptent « de facto » un taux de change flexible, profitent des avantages des RI pour adopter un régime de taux de change administré, qui consiste à atteindre simultanément les trois objectifs du trilemme sans renoncer à un d’eux. Les interprétations peuvent changer si les RI sont prises en fonctions des dettes, autrement dit, l’utilisation des RI/Dettes devrait être envisagée dans de telles études. Ensuite, nous trouvons qu’en ce qui concerne les pays qui adoptent de facto un régime de taux de change fixe, les RI (différents ratios) ne jouent aucun rôle quant à l’évolution du triangle de Mundell et n’interviennent pas dans les décisions politiques monétaires des autorités monétaires. Enfin, ce chapitre traite l’aspect normatif du trilemme, reliant les choix politiques aux résultats macroéconomiques tels que la volatilité de la croissance de production. Nous remarquons que les résultats sont différents selon les pays, et dépendent des différents ratios de mesure du RI. Nous concluons que l’impact des RI sur la volatilité de la croissance de production peut changer selon le niveau des DE et selon le régime de taux de change adopté. / The first chapter of this thesis investigates the efficiency of Hoarding IR and Sterilization in dollarized and indebted countries by measuring the sterilization coefficient, and the offset coefficient. It also focuses on exploring the link between the sources of Reserves and the external debt. We applied a 2SLS regression models and we identified explanatory variables that enabled us to estimate the aforementioned coefficients. Our results show that despite their theoretical correct practice of sterilization policy, economic constrains contribute to weaken the efficiency expected from monetary policies. The second chapter consists of estimating the probability whether an indebted country is vulnerable to crises despite its accumulation of IR -acting as a buffer stock and self-insurance. We use the Financial Stress Indicator (FSI) proposed by Balakrishnan et al (2009) and IMF which covers several aspects of financial crisis- and apply the Markov switching model with time varying, We found that debt had increased the likelihood for a country to suffer from financial crisis, however IR did not necessarily provide “Peace” in the indebted countries except of some exceptions. Thus, consistent with, Calvo (2003, 2006), who found that a country that has an excessive external debt, hoarding reserves will not be sufficient to avoid a crisis, but may be useful during the "sudden stop" crises, we conclude that the deleterious effects of ED might outweigh in most cases the beneficial effects of IR especially in more dollarized countries The third chapter measures first, the degree of trilemma indexes: exchange rate stability, monetary independence and capital account openness while taking into account the increase of hording IR ratio over GDP, over External Debt and over Short Term External Debt. The evolution of the trilemma indexes shows that countries applying de facto flexible Exchange Rate Regime (ERR) take advantage of the IR and become able to adopt a managed ERR that consist of achieving the three trilemma indexes simultaneously without renouncing to anyone of them. We found that different IR ratio could have different interpretations and different directions of monetary policies, where external debt should be taken into consideration in such study while using the IR. As for the country that is applying a de facto fixed exchange rate regime, the IR (different ratio) do not play any role in changing the patter of the Mundell trilemma and do not intervene in monetary authority policies. This chapter treats as well the normative aspects of the trilemma, relating the policy choices to macroeconomic outcomes such as the volatility of output growth. We found different results from country to another, while taking different ratios of measuring IR, concluding that the impact of IR on the output volatility could change due to the level of external debt and adopted exchange rate regime.

The object of this work is to define the role of the EU in the global economy and especialy to identify important features of the development of foreign trade of commodities of EU countries in the years 2008-2013 in the context of the global economic crisis and determine how it has changed commodity trade due to the global economic changes caused by the crisis. This thesis informs about the EU's position and changes in its trade both in terms of extra-trade and intra-trade.