Cette thèse s’intéresse aux forces sociales qui président à la structuration des systèmes monétaires nationaux. À travers l’exemple de l’histoire monétaire et financière coloniale canadienne (1654-1871) il s’agit de comprendre la mécanique et la logique de l’uniformisation des pratiques monétaires de compte et de paiement sur un territoire donné, en particulier suite à l’immixtion et à la circulation d’une monnaie allogène - dollarisation -. Durant cette période on assiste à un « basculement comptable » de la socio-économie coloniale au profit d’une unité de compte privée et d’origine allogène, le dollar. Cette victoire du « privé » contre le « public » procède de la formation d’un puissant consensus sur la monnaie, qui s’apparente à une énergie sociale endogène dont il s’agit de faire la sociologie historique dynamique. Bâtissant sur l’acquis institutionnaliste nous nous concentrons sur les processus d’adhésion et de luttes sociales. Avec les outils offerts par la sociologie interdépendantiste de Norbert Elias nous proposons de penser la genèse historique des monnaies à partir de « régimes d’interdépendances » interne et externe au système monétaire. Enfn nous nous intéressons à la dimension qualitative de ce processus en regardant le rôle des sphères d’échanges, des conversions et des interfaces dans la circulation des monnaies. / This work focuses on social forces that govern national monetary systems structuring process. Using the example of the Canadian monetary history (1654-1871) it is to understand the standardization of monetary practices of account and payment in a given area, especially following the penetration and circulation of a foreign currency - dollarization -. During this period an « accounting switch » occured which saw a private and foreign unit of account - the dollar - replacing the official sterling english system. This movement proceeds from the formation of a strong private consensus on money which we assimilate to an endogenous social energy. We then build on recent institutional approach of money to make a dynamic historical sociology analysis of Canadian monetary history, focusing on social conflicts and collective trust building. Using Norbert Elias genetic and dynamic sociology we think the national monetary system building in terms of internal and external interdependances. We finally point out the importance of conversions and interfaces behind monetary circulation.

Le premier chapitre de cette thèse étudie l’efficience d’accumulation des RI et de la stérilisation dans les pays dollarisés et endettés, en mesurant le coefficient de stérilisation, et le coefficient de retournement. Ce chapitre explore le lien existant entre les sources des réserves et les dettes externes. En appliquant le modèle de régression 2SLS, nous identifions les variables explicatives qui nous permettent d’estimer les coefficients cités. Les résultats obtenus indiquent que malgré l’application théorique et correcte de la politique de stérilisation, les contraintes économiques contribuent à réduire l’efficience attendue des politiques monétaires. Le deuxième chapitre consiste à envisager les probabilités des pays endettés de tomber en crises financières malgré le fait qu’ils accumulent les réserves internationales agissant en tant que choc modérateur et/ou auto-assurance. Nous utilisons l’Indicateur de Stress Financier ISF, proposé par Balakrishnan et al (2009) et le FMI qui couvre les divers aspects de crises financières. Nous appliquons le modèle Markov Switching à probabilité variée. Nous obtenons comme résultat que les dettes augmentent la probabilité qu’un pays souffre d’une crise financière, par contre, les RI ne procurent pas forcément les « paix » dans l’économie, à l’exception des quelques cas. Cependant, les effets négatif des dettes emportent sur les effets positifs des RI surtout dans les pays relativement plus dollarisés. Le troisième chapitre mesure tout d’abord le degré des indices du trilemme: Stabilité du taux de change, indépendance monétaire et ouverture du compte capital, tout en tenant compte de l’accumulation des ratios RI par rapport au PIB ou Dettes Externes ou Dettes Externes (DE) à court terme. L’évolution des indices du trilemme montre que les pays qui adoptent « de facto » un taux de change flexible, profitent des avantages des RI pour adopter un régime de taux de change administré, qui consiste à atteindre simultanément les trois objectifs du trilemme sans renoncer à un d’eux. Les interprétations peuvent changer si les RI sont prises en fonctions des dettes, autrement dit, l’utilisation des RI/Dettes devrait être envisagée dans de telles études. Ensuite, nous trouvons qu’en ce qui concerne les pays qui adoptent de facto un régime de taux de change fixe, les RI (différents ratios) ne jouent aucun rôle quant à l’évolution du triangle de Mundell et n’interviennent pas dans les décisions politiques monétaires des autorités monétaires. Enfin, ce chapitre traite l’aspect normatif du trilemme, reliant les choix politiques aux résultats macroéconomiques tels que la volatilité de la croissance de production. Nous remarquons que les résultats sont différents selon les pays, et dépendent des différents ratios de mesure du RI. Nous concluons que l’impact des RI sur la volatilité de la croissance de production peut changer selon le niveau des DE et selon le régime de taux de change adopté. / The first chapter of this thesis investigates the efficiency of Hoarding IR and Sterilization in dollarized and indebted countries by measuring the sterilization coefficient, and the offset coefficient. It also focuses on exploring the link between the sources of Reserves and the external debt. We applied a 2SLS regression models and we identified explanatory variables that enabled us to estimate the aforementioned coefficients. Our results show that despite their theoretical correct practice of sterilization policy, economic constrains contribute to weaken the efficiency expected from monetary policies. The second chapter consists of estimating the probability whether an indebted country is vulnerable to crises despite its accumulation of IR -acting as a buffer stock and self-insurance. We use the Financial Stress Indicator (FSI) proposed by Balakrishnan et al (2009) and IMF which covers several aspects of financial crisis- and apply the Markov switching model with time varying, We found that debt had increased the likelihood for a country to suffer from financial crisis, however IR did not necessarily provide “Peace” in the indebted countries except of some exceptions. Thus, consistent with, Calvo (2003, 2006), who found that a country that has an excessive external debt, hoarding reserves will not be sufficient to avoid a crisis, but may be useful during the "sudden stop" crises, we conclude that the deleterious effects of ED might outweigh in most cases the beneficial effects of IR especially in more dollarized countries The third chapter measures first, the degree of trilemma indexes: exchange rate stability, monetary independence and capital account openness while taking into account the increase of hording IR ratio over GDP, over External Debt and over Short Term External Debt. The evolution of the trilemma indexes shows that countries applying de facto flexible Exchange Rate Regime (ERR) take advantage of the IR and become able to adopt a managed ERR that consist of achieving the three trilemma indexes simultaneously without renouncing to anyone of them. We found that different IR ratio could have different interpretations and different directions of monetary policies, where external debt should be taken into consideration in such study while using the IR. As for the country that is applying a de facto fixed exchange rate regime, the IR (different ratio) do not play any role in changing the patter of the Mundell trilemma and do not intervene in monetary authority policies. This chapter treats as well the normative aspects of the trilemma, relating the policy choices to macroeconomic outcomes such as the volatility of output growth. We found different results from country to another, while taking different ratios of measuring IR, concluding that the impact of IR on the output volatility could change due to the level of external debt and adopted exchange rate regime.

In the thesis, we examine the bank lending channel and the effect of banking market structure on the transmission of monetary policy in Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. We employ bank-level data for the period of 2011-2017 to detect if banks with different characteristics react differently to monetary policy shocks. Banking market structure is proxied by three measures-CR5, HHI, and Lerner Index. We estimate two types of models: dynamic (with system GMM) and static (with FE) models. We also consider the effect of dollarization on bank loan supply as well as on monetary policy. We do not find consistent evidence that banks react differently to monetary policy shocks depending on bank characteristics (size, capitalization, and liquidity). Hence the existence of the lending channel is not conclusive. Nevertheless, the results show that monetary policy is less effective in more concentrated markets. This finding is robust in all specifications with both types of models. In this sense, competition is not significant. The results also suggest that dollarization weakens the effect of domestic monetary policy. Keywords bank lending channel, CR5, HHI, Lerner Index, system GMM, dollarization Author's e-mail t.jvarize@yahoo.com Supervisor's e-mail janxmares@gmail.com

The theory of optimum currency areas states that the more two countries trade with each other, the better candidates they are for a currency union. In terms of the endogeneity argument, convergence follows from joining a currency union and the integration process itself turns the countries into optimal currency areas. The potential increase in trade is regarded as one of the most important benefits of a currency union. Indirect evidence from studies on the effect of exchange rate volatility on trade does not support this claim. Rose argues that the common currency effect on trade is separate from the effect of the elimination of exchange rate variability and finds a large positive effect of a currency union on trade. Although his methodology has met with criticism, most studies find a positive estimate. A meta-analysis of the studies confirms that a common currency has a statistically and economically significant trade-creating effect. / Economics / M.Com. (Economics)

This paper highlights the amplifier mechanism that has the evolution of exchange rate on the credit cycle in an economy with high financial dollarization, one mechanism that has been called «the exchange rate accelerator». In this scenario, the natural procyclicality between the business cycle and credit cycle goes into the background, but perhaps not fade. The paper develops the theoretical framework underlying the transmission mechanism and shows some stylized facts of Peruvian credit system. The following presents an econometric model with panel data to estimate the effect of exchange rate accelerator on the evolution of credit default in the credit system institutions. From these empirical results, and under Basel II philosophy, the paper discusses how to implement, in banks and other credit institutions, prudential regulation that requires the allocation of provisions and capital for credit risk arising from exchange rate risk caused by foreign currency loans. The basic idea of these measures would help the system to internalize the externalities produced by this non-diversifiable risk factor. / En este trabajo se pone en evidencia el mecanismo amplificador que tiene la evolución del tipo de cambio sobre el ciclo crediticio en una economía con alta dolarización financiera, un mecanismo que se puede denominar «acelerador cambiario». En este contexto, la natural prociclicidad entre el ciclo económico y el ciclo crediticio pasa a un segundo plano, si es que no se desvanece. El documento desarrolla el marco teórico que sustenta el mecanismo de transmisión y muestra algunos hechos estilizados del sistema crediticio peruano. A continuación se plantea un modelo econométrico con datos de panel para estimar el efecto del acelerador cambiario sobre la evolución de la mora crediticia en las entidades del sistema. A partir de estos resultados empíricos, y bajo la filosofía de Basilea II, se discute la forma de implementar, en los bancos y demás entidades de crédito, una regulación prudencial que requiera la asignación de provisiones y de capital para el riesgo crediticio derivado del riesgo cambiario originado por los créditos en moneda extranjera. La idea básica es promover la internalización de las externalidades producidas por este factor de riesgo no diversificable.

The theory of optimum currency areas states that the more two countries trade with each other, the better candidates they are for a currency union. In terms of the endogeneity argument, convergence follows from joining a currency union and the integration process itself turns the countries into optimal currency areas. The potential increase in trade is regarded as one of the most important benefits of a currency union. Indirect evidence from studies on the effect of exchange rate volatility on trade does not support this claim. Rose argues that the common currency effect on trade is separate from the effect of the elimination of exchange rate variability and finds a large positive effect of a currency union on trade. Although his methodology has met with criticism, most studies find a positive estimate. A meta-analysis of the studies confirms that a common currency has a statistically and economically significant trade-creating effect. / Economics / M.Com. (Economics)

A partir de 1996 pour combattre une inflation galopante, Haïti a mis en place une politique de ciblage de la masse monétaire avec un objectif d’inflation. La forte inflation a pris naissance dans l’accumulation du déficit budgétaire et le financement monétaire de celui-ci par le seigneuriage. Cette pratique du financement par l’impôt inflationniste engendre donc un problème de crédibilité, en dépit de la double circulation monétaire caractérisée par un niveau élevé de dollarisation de l’économie qui a atteint 50% dès 2004. La politique monétaire mise en œuvre vise à éviter le biais inflationniste et différentes approches pour améliorer la crédibilité ont été considérées. La crise économique commencée en 2007 dans les pays développés, est née de l’instabilité des marchés financiers et a obligé la mise en place de politique monétaire non conventionnelle afin d’éviter la trappe de liquidité. Cette crise a donné lieu à une accumulation de réserves internationales et un faible taux d’intérêt dans les économies des pays émergents et les économies des pays sous-développés. Il devenait évident que le fondement théorique de la stratégie de politique monétaire demeure la recherche à la fois de la stabilité monétaire et la stabilité des marchés financiers afin de conserver la crédibilité et l’efficacité de la politique monétaire des banques centrales. L’utilisation abusive faite par la FED aux USA de l’assouplissement quantitatif, fait craindre une crise de la dette souveraine des Etats, la création de bulle spéculative, et un retour à la récession. Avec le cas d’Haïti, les anticipations ne sont pas rationnelles à cause des erreurs de prévisions. Une analyse jointe des taux des banques, en utilisant un modèle VECM, ne nous a pas permis de trouver un taux d’équilibre de long terme entre eux. Le test de Seo conclu que les chocs ont affecté la dynamique de ces taux. Les accords avec le FMI ont permis une très faible amélioration de l’efficacité de la politique monétaire avec l’accumulation de réserves dans la foulée de la crise qui a démarré en 2007. / Since 1996 in order to fight inflation, Haiti put in place a monetary policy targeting money supply with inflation target. Inflation high gets started from budget deficit accumulation and monetary financing by seigniorage. This practice of financing by inflationary taxes implies a problem of credibility of monetary policy even with a double monetary circulation and a dollarization of the economy reaching 50% since 2004. The monetary policy implementation aims to avoid inflation bias and different approaches for improving credibility has been considered. The economic crisis started in 2007 created by the instability of the financial markets, forced the establishment of non-conventional monetary policy to avoid the liquidity trap. This crisis has resulted in an accumulation of international reserves and low interest rate in emerging economies and the economies of underdeveloped countries. It became more and more evident that the theoretical basis of the monetary policy strategy remains looking for both, monetary stability and the stability of the financial markets, in order to maintain the credibility and efficiency of the monetary policy of central banks. The misuse made by the FED in the USA of quantitative easing, rise concerns about a crisis of sovereign debt of the Sates, the creation of speculative bubble, and a possible return to the recession. With the case of Haiti, the expectations are not rationales because of forecast errors. A joint analysis of banks interests’ rates using a VECM model has not enabled us to find a long run equilibrium rate between them. The Seo test concluded that chocks affect the dynamic of both rates. The agreements with the IMF allowed improving weakly the monetary policy efficiency with the accumulation of international reserves in the wake of the crisis which started in 2007.

La presente investigación analiza si la volatilidad del tipo de cambio, condicionada a la intervención cambiaria del Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, conlleva a generar un fallo en la disminución de la dolarización de los créditos en el Perú. Se desarrolla un modelo VAR bajo diferentes especificaciones que se diferencian por tipo de crédito y variable proxy de volatilidad cambiaria, realizando análisis de impulso-respuesta y descomposición de varianza. Los resultados confirman la hipótesis de que la limitada volatilidad del tipo de cambio, debido a la intervención cambiaria, genera un fallo en la disminución de la dolarización de los créditos hipotecarios y de consumo, ya que estas presentan una relación negativa. / This research analyzes whether the volatility of the exchange rate, conditioned to the exchange rate intervention of the Central Bank of Peru, leads to generating a failure in the de-dollarization of credits in Peru. A VAR model is developed under different specifications that differ by type of credit and exchange rate volatility proxy variable, performing impulse-response analysis and variance decomposition. The results confirm the hypothesis that the limited volatility of the exchange rate, due to the exchange rate intervention, generates a failure in the de-dollarization process of mortgage and consumer loans, since these present a negative relationship. / Trabajo de investigación

Este trabajo de investigación se enfoca en encontrar la relación existente entre la acción de política de desdolarización del Banco Central de Reserva del Perú y el ratio de dolarización de los créditos hipotecarios en el mercado financiero peruano como mecanismo de Política Monetaria. Para ello, se estima mediante metodologías de cointegración empíricas como regresiones lineales y modelos de corrección de errores, con la finalidad de demostrar la existencia de una relación entre la política implementada por el BCRP y el ratio de dolarización de créditos hipotecarios. Los resultados encontrados para el período entre Julio del 2010 a Diciembre del 2019 demuestran que existe una relación negativa de la política frente al ratio de dolarización de los créditos hipotecarios; es decir, el programa de desdolarización del BCRP si tuvo un efecto significativo sobre la dolarización de los créditos hipotecarios en el periodo asignado. Además se evidencia que existe una relación sostenida de equilibrio de largo plazo entre las variables de estudio. / This research focuses on finding the relationship between the de-dollarization policy action of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru and the dollarization of mortgage loans in the Peruvian financial market like mechanism of Monetary politics. For this, it is estimated using empirical cointegration methodologies such as linear regressions and error correction models, in order to demonstrate the existence of a relationship between the policy implemented by the BCRP and the ratio of dollarization of mortgage loans. The results found for the period between July 2010 to December 2019 show that there is a negative relationship between the policy and the dollarization ratio of the mortgage loans; in other words, the BCRP's de-dollarization program did have a significant effect on the dollarization of mortgage loans in the assigned period. Also, it is evident that there is a sustained long-term equilibrium relationship between the used variables. / Trabajo de investigación

Framed within a discussion of populism, this thesis provides a critical analysis of the campaign and short tenure in office of Ecuadorian President Lucio Gutiérrez Borbúa. It outlines a multi-dimensional approach to populism that is characterized by five components: (1) personalistic leadership, (2) a heterogeneous coalition of support, (3) top-down political mobilization, (4) an ambiguous ideological discourse, and (5) a redistributive and clientelistic economic approach. Applied to the Gutiérrez case, the multi-dimensional approach highlights the viability and volatility of populism.<p> This thesis argues that Gutiérrez ascended to the presidency through the successful application of a populist strategy, which generated significant expectations among the public and his political allies. Yet, once in office, Gutiérrez populist strategy was unable to sustain the support he enjoyed during the campaign. The expectations he generated went unmet as he engaged in clear reversals of the populist imaginary created by his candidacy. His twenty-eight months in office were characterized by neoliberalism, corruption, and status quo political machinations that had sunk his predecessors. Tracking Gutiérrez transition from populist champion to political pariah using the multi-dimensional approach indicates that although populism can be an effective electoral strategy, it can also impose significant limitations on a government. Ultimately, the Gutiérrez case reinforces the important role played by the populist imaginary in determining the success or failure of populist leaders.