Purpose                               The main purpose of this study is to test in which part of the economic cycle that generates the best results on corporate acquisitions for the acquirer in the short-term. The study examines the Swedish market and has the aim to study both domestic and foreign acquisitions made by Swedish acquirers. The study also has a purpose of examining if there is a difference in results with domestic acquisitions and foreign acquisitions.   Theory The theoretical perspective will include previous research, concepts and theories. The theoretical framework includes Efficient market hypothesis, The random walk theory and the Non-random walk theory.  Method This study undertakes a quantitative approach with a deductive reasoning. The event study includes a 10 day event window (t-4, t+5). It is an event study that examines 100 acquisitions listed on the Nasdaq OMX Stockholm during the time period 2008- 2018.  Results Data has been collected from the databases Zephyr, Orbis and Nasdaq OMX Nordic. In the empirical foundation AAR and CAR is presented. The results show that it is better to make acquisitions during a upturn in the short-term perspective. The results also show a very slim difference between domestic and foreign acquisitions. / Syfte Syftet med denna studie är att undersöka i vilket konjunkturläge företagsförvärv genererar högst abnormal avkastning på det förvärvande företagets aktie på kort sikt. Studien mäter förvärv på den svenska marknaden och avser att analysera om förvärv utförda mellan svenska företag kontra svenska förvärv på utländska företag påverkar den abnormala avkastningen på. Teori Studien utgår från två stycken teorier och innefattar en referensram med utvalda tidigare forskningar inom området. Teorierna som ingår i studien är Effektiva marknadshypotesen och The Random walk som även inkluderar non-random walk. Metod Denna studie har en kvantitativ forskningsdesign med deduktiv ansats som bygger på ett metodval i form av eventstudie. Eventstudien består av ett eventfönster på 10 dagar (t-4 till t+5)och undersöker reaktionen på marknaden vid 100 stycken förvärv där det förvärvande företaget är börsnoterat på OMX Stockholm nasdaq. Resultat Datan är insamlad via databaserna Zephyr, Orbis och Nasdaq OMX Nordic. I empirinpresenteras AAR och CAR där resultaten visar på att det är bättre att genomföra förvärv i högkonjunktur i ett kortsiktigt perspektiv. Resultaten för inhemska kontra utländska marknadenvisar på väldigt små skillnader.

[pt] A evidência empírica demonstra que termos de troca e produtividade flutuam juntos para economias grandes exportadoras de commodities. O modelo semi estrutural estimado nesta dissertação visa representar uma pequena economia aberta, na qual as flutuações dos termos de troca impactam de forma direta a produtividade da economia. A partir de métodos Bayesianos, o modelo testa se existe correlação positiva entre períodos de expansão dos termos de troca e períodos de expansão da produtividade, com o objetivo de analisar a influência dos termos de troca na dinâmica da economia brasileira de 2000 a 2019. Os resultados obtidos corroboram a correlação positiva prevista nos dados. / [en] The empirical evidence shows that terms of trade and productivity move in the same direction for commodity exporting economies. The semi structural model estimated in this paper of an small open economy introduces a direct impact of fluctuations in terms of trade on the productivity. Using Bayesian methods of estimation, we analyze whether there is a positive correlation between periods of terms of trade booms and periods of productivity growth in Brazilian economy fluctuations from 2000 to 2019. The results show that a positive shock in the terms of trade leads to an increase in productivity, proving the positive correlation predicted in the data.

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This thesis deals with the topic of migration. In the theoretical level the work defines the term migration, further it discusses its reasons, forms, types and consequences. In the practical level the work examines the impact of migration on the socio-economic indicators. It is focused to characteristics of the migration impacts on social and economic indicators of the Czech Republic. The aim of the work is to assess the situation, which could arise in the future as a direct consequence of migration. The work further also brings information about the current situation and migration development in the Czech Republic, it also informs what kind of migration policy was chosen by the Czech Government and discusses the topic of national minorities living in our country. Selected goal of the work is processed in a third part, which discuss economic, social and demographic aspect of migration.

Viešojo sektoriaus ekonomikos magistro darbo tema yra ypatingai aktuali tiek valstybei, tiek šalies gyventojams. Kiekvienoje valstybėje yra labai svarbu garantuoti socialinę apsaugą kiekvienam jos piliečiui, todėl socialinio draudimo fondo biudžetas turi būti planuojamas itin atidžiai. Įvairiais ekonomikos vystymosi etapais atsiranda socialinio draudimo fondo biudžeto sudarymo problemų, kurios ypatingai aktualios esant ekonominiam nuosmukiui, nes susidaro didžiausia problema – Valstybinio socialinio draudimo deficitas. Socialinės išmokos ir užtikrintas jų gavimas, kai netenkama pajamų yra labai svarbus, tačiau esant dideliam biudžetui deficitui atsiranda pavojus, kad išmokų mokėjimas gali sutrikti arba išmokos mažėti. 2008 m. atsiradęs didžiulis biudžeto deficitas kelia nerimą net tik socialinio draudimo valdybai, kuri atsakinga yra už jo vykdymą, bet ir gyventojams, nes tai gali paliesti kiekvieną iš jų. Dėl šios priežastys svarbu tirti Valstybinio socialinio draudimo biudžetą ir pateikti rekomendacijas, kaip jį subalansuoti. Pagrindinė tyrime analizuojama problema – VSDF biudžeto deficitas, kuris susidaro ekonomikai vystantis cikliškai. Tyrimo objektas – Valstybinio socialinio draudimo fondo biudžetas. Tyrimo tikslas – atkleisti Valstybinio socialinio draudimo fondo priklausomybę nuo ekonominių ciklų ir pateikti siūlymus kaip sumažinti jų neigiamą poveikį socialinio draudimo biudžetui. Šiame moksliniame darbe iškeltam tikslui pasiekti yra nustatomi šie uždaviniai:... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / This master's thesis in Public Sector Economics is particularly relevant to both the state and the country's residents. Ensuring social protection is very important for each citizen so the Social Insurance Fund budget must be planned very carefully. During the economic development various problems of the social insurance fund budget appear which are particularly relevant during economic downturn. In this period the main problem is the state social security fund budget deficit. To ensure benefits when there is the loss of income is very important, but when the budget has deficit the social payments can be irregular, o social benefits may go down. The budget deficit in 2008 is a matter of concern not only for State social Insurance Fund border but also for every citizen, because reduction of benefits can affect everyone. For this reasons it is important to investigate the state social insurance fund budget and set recommendations on how to balance it. Deficit in State social Security Fund budget resulting from the cyclical economy is the main problem analyzed in the study. The object of investigation - the State Social Insurance Fund budget. The goal of this research – to discover State Social Insurance Fund's dependence on economic cycles and provide advice to minimize negative impact due to cyclical fluctuations on the social security budget. The objectives of the research: to describe the concept of social security its history, social policy Lithuania, to describe and... [to full text]

[pt] Eu calculo uma proxy da propensão à tomada de risco dos jogadores de cassino através dos dados de receita de cassinos. Usando regressões insample e out-of-sample, eu então analiso o quão bem essa proxy prevê o prêmio de risco do mercado de ações. / [en] I estimate a proxy for the risk taking behavior of Casino gamblers through a measure of total Casino gambling revenue. Using in-sample and out-of-sample regressions, I then analyze how suited this proxy is in predicting market risk premium.

Background: Previous studies on the subject, contrary to corresponding studies on mergers and acquisitions, have shown significant positive market reactions from all over the world on the announcements of divestitures. However, similar studies have not been done on the Swedish market. There are split opinions on the origin of the abnormal returns from the announcements of divestitures, but the economic cycle, choice of payment method and industry affiliation are recurring explaining variables in event studies. Aim: The aim of the study is to investigate the effect on shareholder wealth from the announcements of a divestiture on the Swedish market during the period from 1997-2017, as well as investigating how the abnormal returns are affected by the economic cycle, choice of payment method and industry affiliation. Completion: The study is conducted using the event study methodology and a deductive approach. Historical time series from divesting companies share prices are used to estimate expected returns which are then compared to actual returns to decide whether the announcement of a divestiture has an impact on shareholder wealth. Results: The study finds significant results that divesting companies’ shareholder wealth are positively affected by the announcement of a divestiture for both event windows (-3, +3) and (-1, +1). For each separate day within the event window the authors find statistically significant returns for day T-2 and T0. The authors find no statistically significant differences between the returns regarding the economic cycle. Regarding the choice of method of payment, it is concluded that payment through stock generates excess returns when compared to other financing alternatives. No differences could be found between different industry affiliations. / Bakgrund: Tidigare studier inom ämnet har, till skillnad från motsvarande forskning om företagsförvärv, påvisat signifikanta positiva reaktioner från marknader över hela världen vid tillkännagivandet av en avyttring. Däremot saknas studier om avyttringars effekt på den svenska marknaden. Det råder delade meningar om varför abnormal avkastning uppstår vid tillkännagivandet, där konjunkturläge, finansieringsalternativ och branschtillhörighet är vanligt förekommande förklarande variabler i eventstudier. Syfte: Studiens syfte är att undersöka hur tillkännagivandet av en avyttring påverkar säljande bolags aktiekurs på den svenska marknaden under tidsperioden 1997–2017, samt att undersöka hur rådande konjunkturläge, valt finansieringsalternativ och branschtillhörighet påverkar avkastningen Genomförande: Studien genomförs genom eventstudiemetodologin med en deduktiv ansats. Empirin utgår från historisk tidsseriedata från avyttrande bolags aktiekurser för att bestämma förväntad avkastning som sedan jämförs med faktiskt avkastning för att urskilja om tillkännagivandet påverkar kursutvecklingen. Resultat: Studien visar statistiskt signifikanta resultat för att avyttrande bolags aktiekurs påverkas positivt av tillkännagivandet av en avyttring både för eventfönstret (-3, +3) och (-1, +1). För de enskilda dagarna i eventfönstret finner författarna statistiskt signifikanta avkastningar för dag T-2 och T0. Författarna finner inga statistiskt säkerställda skillnader i avkastning beroende på rådande konjunkturläge. Gällande val av finansieringsalternativ visas att betalning genom aktier genererar signifikant högre avkastning än övriga alternativ. Inga samband kunde säkerställas beroende på företagens branschtillhörighet.

The aim of this thesis was to evaluate the contributions of the sections (NACE-CZ) to the creation of gross value added. The first part of this thesis described the theoretical concepts relating to national economic gross value added. Analytical processes were used for the calculations, which may be used only if we are dealing with an additive link between individual factors. The sections' contributions to the creation of national eco-nomic gross value added were evaluated in the practical part, on the basis of the proc-esses set forth in the methodology. In the given time horizon, contributions by institu-tional sectors and groups of sections classified according to the level of technology showed a certain dependency on the actual economic cycle. Although the strongest in-stitutional sector is non-financial enterprises, they were the ones most affected during the crisis period, together with government institutions. On the contrary, the financial institution sector showed a strong position during the crisis period. In terms of the grouping of the sections according to the level of technology, the greatest contribution to national economic gross value added is by groups B1 and B2. The influence of the economic cycle was noted in all the groups but, according to the results, group C did not react quite as sensitively as the other groups.

Submitted by José Eduardo Nalini (nalini@br.ibm.com) on 2015-03-05T20:44:27Z No. of bitstreams: 1 MPFE 2013 Projeto_Jose E Nalini_04.03.2015_Final V5.pdf: 810030 bytes, checksum: 167c69c2eb5d9dc0b4a74870cdedaee9 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br) on 2015-03-05T21:25:57Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 MPFE 2013 Projeto_Jose E Nalini_04.03.2015_Final V5.pdf: 810030 bytes, checksum: 167c69c2eb5d9dc0b4a74870cdedaee9 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-06T12:24:17Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 MPFE 2013 Projeto_Jose E Nalini_04.03.2015_Final V5.pdf: 810030 bytes, checksum: 167c69c2eb5d9dc0b4a74870cdedaee9 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-02-12 / The effectiveness of fiscal stimulus or an expansionary fiscal policy has been the subject of analysis and debate in recent decades, been studied using different methods, historical periods and groups of countries. The work aims to study the impact of fiscal policy in other relevant macroeconomic variables, such as: taxes, inflation, unemployment, savings and investment rate, the last 20 years, for developed and developing countries, and in particular the case Brazil in the last 60 years. Some important work, show that fiscal shocks depend primarily on some main characteristics of countries, such as level of development, exchange rate regime, opening of the economy and public debt, among others. In addition, the response to the stimulus will depend on the stage of the economic cycle that particular economy is, recession or expansion. The results based on structural autoregressive (SVAR), through the impulse response function shows that for both groups of countries, developed and developing, and also to Brazil, the output response to a fiscal stimulus is negative, ie, there is a fall in output due to the fiscal stimulus. / A eficácia do estímulo fiscal ou uma política fiscal expansionista, tem sido alvo de análise e debate durante as últimas décadas, sendo estudada através de diferentes metodologias, períodos históricos e grupos de países. O trabalho tem como objetivo estudar o impacto da política fiscal em outras variáveis macroeconômicas relevantes, dentre elas: carga tributária, inflação, desemprego, poupança e taxa de investimento, nos últimos 20 anos, para países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento, e em especial o caso Brasileiro nos últimos 60 anos. Alguns trabalhos importantes, evidenciam que os choques fiscais dependem basicamente de algumas características principais dos países, como nível de desenvolvimento, regime cambial, abertura da economia e dívida pública, entre outras. Além disso, a resposta ao estímulo irá depender do estágio do ciclo econômico que determinada economia se encontra, recessão ou expansão. Os resultados encontrados com base no modelo autoregressivo estrutural (SVAR), através das função impulso resposta, demonstra que para ambos os grupos de países, desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento, e também para o Brasil, à resposta do produto a um estímulo fiscal é negativo, ou seja, há uma queda do produto em função do estímulo fiscal.

This thesis deals with the analysis of state budget in 1993 to 2014. Firstly the state budget and public expenditures are theoretically defined. Secondly the analysis of state budget expenditures of the Czech Republic at the level of budget chapters, current and capital expenditures is elaborated in the practical part. The comparison of state budget expenditures follows based on the classification COFOG with selected EU members. In the last part of the thesis the political-economic cycle is defined and the analysis in a form of testing hypotheses of basis of literature related to the political-economic cycle is performed. The testing was carried out in Eviews using the autoregressive process. The analysis follows the partial theory of political-economic cycles in the Czech Republic, positive results of the comparison and the growing trend of state budget expenditures of the Czech Republic.