The aim of diploma thesis is the analysis of economic cycle in the car sector in the Czech Republic and the government's approach on this issue. I desribe the global economic and financial crisis in the years 2007 - 2010, which had impact on automotive industry, For comparison, I add approach by government abroad and development of automotive industry, mainly in Germany and the Slovak Republic. The first part consists of theoretical approaches of important economists of the economic cycle, the company in recession and the different approaches to structural policy. Individual approaches are different and unfortunately there is no uniform approach to effective solution of the crisis. The analytical part deals with the beginning of economic and financial crisis along with the impact on the production and sale of three automotive producers in the Czech Republic - Škoda auto a.s., TPCA, Hyundai Motor Czech s.r.o. This impact is compared with the consequences of the crisis at car manufacturers in Germany and the Slovak Republic. Finally comes the assessment of mainly interventionist approaches by governments in the Czech Republic and abroad. Through the efforts to alleviate the ongoing recession in the sector was being set up so-called scrap subsidy that had an impact on the industry in the Czech Republic, even though in our country was his introduction denied.

Submitted by Ricardo Cedraz Duque Moliterno (ricardo.moliterno@uefs.br) on 2016-09-27T00:02:12Z No. of bitstreams: 1 AnaLigia_Disserta??o_completa.pdf: 3275012 bytes, checksum: 3fbf17a121f3ccc63ae9e4e137889710 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-09-27T00:02:12Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 AnaLigia_Disserta??o_completa.pdf: 3275012 bytes, checksum: 3fbf17a121f3ccc63ae9e4e137889710 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-02-25 / This dissertation deals an analysis of the cyclical changes of the design of industrial products, its relations with long cycles of economy and technology and its implications for local material culture. This research was conducted based on the model used by Langrish, work published in England in 1982. In his work, examine published magazines advertisements, with an emphasis on motivational spirit of society. We questioned if the Brazil, as a semi-peripheral country, has optimism cycles in design as it appears in England. The main objective is the analysis of how behaves the motivation of products design in the country, between the cyclical fluctuations of economy and technology. To achieve our goals was carried out an analysis of selected periods announcements in accordance with the variation of the national political-economic framework of the VEJA Magazine, between 1968 to 2015 years. After evaluating the results, this research reveals the perception of cyclical changes the products design in function of changes techno-economics paradigms and a heavy reliance of the design produced in the leading countries economically. In chapter one, the introduction to the survey is presented. The chapter two provides a brief historical and theoretical overview of the design, the economic cycles and technological changes. In the third chapter, we discuss the design changes opportunities and the economic situation of the peripheral countries. Analyzes and contributions is in the fourth chapter. In the fifth chapter are cited some final considerations of the research. / sta disserta??o faz uma an?lise sobre as mudan?as c?clicas do Desenho de produtos industrializados, suas rela??es com os ciclos longos de economia e tecnologia e o que isto implica como cultura material local. A pesquisa foi realizada com base no modelo utilizado por Langrish, em 1982, em seu artigo publicado na Inglaterra, que consiste em analisar imagens dos an?ncios de revistas ou peri?dicos publicados, com ?nfase no esp?rito motivacional da sociedade. Questionamos se o Brasil, como um pa?s semiperif?rico, possui Ciclos de otimismo em Desenho tal qual apresentado na Inglaterra. O objetivo principal ? a an?lise de como se comporta a motiva??o do desenho de produtos, no Pa?s, entre as oscila??es c?clicas de economia e tecnologia. Para atingir nossos objetivos foi realizada uma an?lise dos an?ncios de per?odos selecionados em conformidade com a varia??o do quadro pol?ticoecon?mico nacional, da Revista VEJA, entre os anos de 1968 a 2015. Ap?s os resultados auferidos, a pesquisa revela a percep??o das mudan?as c?clicas do desenho de produtos em fun??o das mudan?as dos paradigmas tecnoecon?micos no Pa?s e uma forte depend?ncia de desenhos produzidos em pa?ses l?deres economicamente. No cap?tulo um, encontra-se a parte introdut?ria da pesquisa. O cap?tulo dois traz um breve panorama hist?rico e te?rico sobre o Desenho, os Ciclos Econ?micos e as mudan?as tecnol?gicas. No terceiro cap?tulo, abordamos as oportunidades de mudan?as do Desenho e da situa??o econ?mica dos pa?ses perif?ricos. As an?lises e contribui??es, fruto da pesquisa, encontra-se no quarto cap?tulo. No quinto cap?tulo as considera??es finais da pesquisa.

This diploma thesis deal with evaluation price development of prefabricated reinforced concrete structures in concrete company based on economic cycle of Czech Republic. The theoretical part deal with definition economic cycle, description of pricing in construction and analysis of price development. The practical part describes price development of prefabricated construction and specific example shows compilation total price of skeletal structures with reference to observed development in 2014-2019. Conclusion compares economy cycle with building industry and specific example.

En la presente investigación se estudia los determinantes de la morosidad de los créditos de consumo poniendo énfasis en el efecto del ciclo económico condicionado al tipo de institución financiera durante el periodo comprendido entre los años 2011 al 2019. En tal sentido, los tipos de institución financiera propuestos son: i) Bancos grandes, ii) Bancos medianos, iii) Entidades especializadas y iv) Entidades bancarias. Los criterios con los que se segmentaron las instituciones se basó en el nivel total de activos, participación del crédito de consumo sobre el total de créditos emitidos por cada institución, así como fortaleza retail y tienda por departamento. La investigación encontró evidencia empírica de positividad entre el ciclo económico y el ratio de morosidad de los créditos de consumo. Además, esta relación es más fuerte en las empresas especializadas y no bancarias, siendo no significativo en las grandes y medianas. Estos resultados fueron estimados a través de paneles dinámicos bajo la metodología de Arellano y Bond, así como cinco metodologías para la obtención de la variable ciclo económico, desarrolladas a más detalle en la sección 4 del presente documento. / In this research, the determinants of consumer credit delinquency are studied, emphasizing the effect of the economic cycle conditioned to the type of financial institution during the period 2011 to 2019. In this sense, the types of financial institution proposed are: i) Large Banks, ii) Medium-sized banks, iii) Specialized entities and iv) Banking entities. The criteria with which the institutions were segmented were based on the total level of assets, the share of consumer credit over the total credits issued by each institution, as well as the strength of retail trade and department stores. The research found empirical evidence of positivity between the business cycle and the delinquency rate of consumer loans. In addition, this relationship is stronger in specialized and non-bank companies, not being significant in large and medium-sized companies. These results were estimated through dynamic panels under the Arellano and Bond methodology, as well as five methodologies for obtaining the economic cycle variable, developed in greater detail in section 4 of this document. / Trabajo de investigación

Syfte: Studien syftar till att visa hur och varför volymen börsnoteringar av fastighetsbolag varierat över tid och hur denna volym har påverkats av det ekonomiska klimatet. Metod: Studien baseras på en kvantitativ metod. Multipel regressionsanalys tillämpas där makroekonomiska faktorers förklaringsvärde för volymen börsintroduktioner av fastighetsbolag undersöks. Teoretisk referensram: Det teoretiska ramverk som används i denna studie har sin primära utgångspunkt i tidigare forskning gjorda på börsnoteringar. Vidare har The Fisher Di Pasquale Wheaton model använts för att få en djupare förståelse för fastighetsbranschens mekanismer. Kopplingen till aktiemarknaden har sitt ursprung i Den effektiva marknadshypotesen tillsammans med The capital demand hypothesis. Resultat: Denna studie finner ett negativt samband mellan antalet introduktioner av fastighetsbolag samt det aktuella ränte- och konjunkturläget. Aktieprisutvecklingen bland fastighetsbolag och volatilitet på fastighetsaktiemarknaden har båda ett positivt samband med antalet introduktioner av fastighetsbolag. Denna studie finner inget samband mellan antalet introduktioner av fastighetsbolag och inflationsnivå. / Objective: This thesis aims to gain a deeper understanding of IPO activity by real estate firms, and why its volume varies over time. The objective is also to obtain the impacts of macroeconomic factors on the volumes of initial public offerings. Method: This study uses a quantitative method were macroeconomic factors will be used as predictors in a multiple regression analysis. Further, IPO volumes of real estate firms will be considered as the constant. Theorethical references: The basic theories that are used in this thesis are Efficient Market Hypothesis, the FDW-model, and The Capital Demand Hypothesis. Previous thesis that covers IPOs are considered as the fundmental basis of this study. Results: The results shows a negative correlation between the IPO volumes of real estate firms, and the interest rate, as well as the economic cycle. Hence, this study finds a positive correlation between stock prices and the volatility at the stock market. The results don’t find any significant correlation between IPO volumes and the inflation rate.

Questo lavoro contribuisce al dibattito sul “decoupling delle Economie emergenti (EE) rispetto alle Economie Avanzate (EA)” rispondendo principalmente alle seguenti domande: “La vulnerabilità delle EE a schock esterni (siano essi reali o del credito) provenienti dalle EA è cambiata nel tempo? E’ cresciuta o si è ridotta, come implica l’ipotesi del decoupling?” Al fine di misurare l’impatto che un eventuale schock esterno avrebbe esercitato sulle EE in diversi periodi degli ultimi decenni, sono stati eseguiti esperimenti di analisi controfattuale utilizzando un modello econometrico Time Varying Panel VAR con coefficienti fattorizzati. Le analisi mostrano che negli ultimi trenta anni le EE sono diventate meno vulnerabili a shock provenienti dalle EA, siano essi di natura reale o shock del credito. Sebbene questo risultato supporti l’idea del decoupling, è importante notare che la resilienza delle EE a shock esterni è evoluta nel tempo in maniera non progressiva ma piuttosto evidenziando fasi di più forte resilienza seguite da fasi di minore resilienza e vice versa; un “sentiero a onde” non ancora pienamente considerato nella letteratura economica. Le EE sono inoltre risultate più vulnerabili a shock del credito rispetto a shock reali; questa maggiore vulnerabilità relativa ha raggiunto il suo picco negli anni più recenti. / This work aims to contribute towards the debate on “decoupling of Emerging Economies (EEs) from the Advanced Economies (AEs)” by addressing the following main questions: “Has the EEs’ vulnerability to external shocks (both real and credit shocks) coming from AEs changed over time? If so, has it grown or decreased, as the decoupling hypothesis claims?” In order to measure the impact that external shocks would have on the EEs’ GDP growth in different periods of last decades, counterfactual experiments were performed using an econometric Time Varying Panel VAR model with factorized coefficients. The analyses show that over the last thirty years EEs have become less vulnerable to shocks spreading from the AEs. Despite this represents evidence in favour of the decoupling hypothesis, it is important to note that EEs’ resilience to external shocks has changed in a non-progressive manner over time, with phases of greater resilience followed by others of lower resilience, and vice versa; this outlines a “wave-like” path whose evidence has yet been fully analyzed in the economic literature. Moreover, the EEs have shown to be more vulnerable to credit shocks than to real ones; this greater relative vulnerability has reached its peak in the most recent years.

Submitted by André Fava Pestana (afpestana@gmail.com) on 2014-12-23T22:09:45Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_AFP_MPFE_VersãoFinal.pdf: 441121 bytes, checksum: d3fd4490be660a716f9368bbf366064e (MD5) / Rejected by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br), reason: Prezado André, Não deve constar números de página nas páginas de 1 á 8. Peço a gentileza de excluir estes números e postar novamente. Lembrando que o Sumário está correto, seu trabalho se inicia na página 9. À disposição para qualquer esclarecimento. Att. Renata Souza Cursos de Pós-Graduação (55 11) 3799-7764 SRA - Secretaria de Registros Acadêmicos on 2014-12-29T11:26:26Z (GMT) / Submitted by André Fava Pestana (afpestana@gmail.com) on 2014-12-29T13:32:24Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_AFP_MPFE_VersãoFinal.pdf: 442163 bytes, checksum: c1d9e18d4959a2ad10458a4c85047465 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br) on 2014-12-29T13:37:54Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_AFP_MPFE_VersãoFinal.pdf: 442163 bytes, checksum: c1d9e18d4959a2ad10458a4c85047465 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-01-05T11:30:06Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_AFP_MPFE_VersãoFinal.pdf: 442163 bytes, checksum: c1d9e18d4959a2ad10458a4c85047465 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-12-19 / Banks, as diligent agents, actively monitor their debtors in order to obtain a precise assessment of their financial position. This monitoring stance usually allows them to access non-public information regarding a firm and its business, and acquire hold up power in the credit granting activity. This hold up power is believed to allow banks to charge the firm higher interest rates than otherwise would be justified by the company’s credit risk profile through the economic cycle, mainly during recessions. The presence of hold up power is tested on this paper in businesses more or less dependent on bank credit. By comparing the evolution of bank spreads paid by Brazilian public companies with and without access to the corporate bond market and through the economic cycle comprising the 2009 crisis, some insight is gained on the impact of an economic downturn and of holding corporate bonds in reducing the bank’s hold up power and hence the spreads paid by the company. Data from 50 firms for the years 2007 to 2013 were organized in a panel and modeled using the Estimated Generalized Least Squares (EGLS) technique, as an alternative to the classic Least Squares (LS) technique. The dummies, i) access to corporate bond credit, ii) economic recession and iii) interaction of the 2 previous variables were created and tested after controlling for firm specific factors such as credit restriction, firm size, leverage, etc and statistical evidence was found supporting the intuition that having access to the bond market can reduce the bank spreads during recessions. / A concessão de crédito bancário demanda esforço do agente credor que se dedica de forma ativa na obtenção de informações relativas à firma, até então não disponíveis ao público. Dado o hold up power do banco detentor de informações não públicas, este deveria poder cobrar spreads mais altos do que seria justificado unicamente pelo risco de crédito do tomador ao longo dos ciclos econômicos, sendo tal dinâmica mais acentuada em cenários de crise. Testa-se aqui esta hipótese e para isso são comparadas as variações do spread bancário médio da dívida de empresas brasileiras com diferentes composições de endividamento, levando-se em conta sua dependência do crédito bancário. Foram criadas: i) uma variável dummy identificando o acesso ao crédito direto para que se pudesse avaliar o seu efeito nos spreads; ii) outra dummy identificando cenários de recessão que permite avaliar o impacto do ciclo econômico nos spreads e iii) dummy interação que viabilizou o estudo do efeito combinado das duas variáveis anteriores. Fatores de risco individuais da firma, tais como tamanho, nível de alavancagem e sua natureza em termos de restrição a crédito foram controlados na análise. Os dados foram organizados em painel com os quais foi montada regressão linear valendo-se da técnica Estimated Generalized Least Squares (EGLS), alternativa ao Least Squares (LS) clássico. Encontrou-se evidência estatística de que em cenários de recessão econômica o acesso ao mercado direto de crédito traz efeito benéfico sobre os spreads bancários pagos pelas firmas.

The master thesis considers the problem of the effect of market potential solution to reduce dependence on the metallurgical industry crisis in the economy. The thesis has the experience of domestic and foreign researchers in determining the characteristics of the market potential, identified factors affecting the state of the market potential for the crisis, the theory of crises and economic cycles. To identify ways to accelerate out of the crisis, analyzes the steel industry in the world and our country in the last ten years. Based on the theoretical analysis and analysis of the metallurgical industry of Russia, recommendations for the growth of the market potential in today’s crisis were proposed. / В работе рассмотрено решение проблемы влияния рыночного потенциала на снижение зависимости металлургической отрасли от кризисных явлений в экономике. В диссертации изучен опыт отечественных и зарубежных исследователей в определении особенностей рыночного потенциала, выявлены факторы, влияющие на состояние рыночного потенциала в условиях кризисных явлений, теория кризисов и экономических циклов. Для определения путей ускорения выхода из кризиса проанализировано состояние черной металлургии в мире и нашей стране за последние десять лет. На основе проведенного теоретического анализа и анализа металлургического комплекса России были предложены рекомендации для роста рыночного потенциала в условиях современного кризиса.

本文探討景氣因素、研發外溢效果及技術知識特質對IC設計業研發支出遞延效應之影響。本研究主要採用Lev and Sougiannis (1996)所發展之研發支出遞延效應實證模型，以國內IC設計業上市櫃公司為對象，透過分析產業特性，區分為多應用性IC設計群組及單應用性IC之資訊、通訊及消費性群組，並探討其研發支出遞延效應。研究發現如下： 一、在研發支出遞延效應中，IC設計業受景氣之影響僅限於當期之研發支出；就研發支出效益受影響程度上，IC設計業亦低於其他IC產業。此結果顯示，IC設計業由於具備產品多元化和應用多元等利基市場特性，且在國內是屬於成長型產業，故景氣影響程度不如其他下游產業來的大。 二、多應用性IC設計公司之研發支出所創造之未來效益，比單應用性IC設計公司高。多應用性IC設計公司因為受到研發外溢效果之影響，其當期及遞延一期之研發支出，會比單應用性IC設計公司創造更高之效益。此結果顯示，多應用性IC設計公司投入於不同領域產品之研發支出，存在類似產業內外溢效果，因此亦加強研發支出對未來效益貢獻之程度。 三、資訊類單應用性IC設計公司之研發支出，對未來所創造之效益金額及持續年限，均未優於通訊類及消費類單應用性IC公司。本研究發現，技術路徑相依度及技術變動程度兩種技術知識特質，並不能完全解釋單應用性不同群組之研發支出所創造未來效益的程度，而必須同時考量下游應用市場之目前狀況及未來潛力，才能對其研發支出遞延效應做出更正確之推論。 / This thesis analyzes three R&D performance issues of the IC design firms in Taiwan. First, it addresses the effect of the fluctuating economic cycle in the semiconductor sector on the R&D performance of design and non-design firms in the IC industry. Secondly, this study examines the R&D spillover effect on the R&D performance of the multifunctional and single-functional groups of IC design firms. Finally, this study discusses how technological knowledge (path independence and complexity) influences the R&D performance of the three subgroups (computer, communication, and consumer) of single-functional IC design firms. Three major findings of the study are as follows: 1.The fluctuating economic cycle in the semiconductor sector has less influence on the R&D performance of the IC design firms than that of the IC non-design firms. The fluctuation affects the R&D expenditure of IC design firms only in the current year, but that effect on the IC non-design firms exist in the current year and also the following year. The R&D performance of IC design firms is also less influenced. 2.The multifunctional IC design firms generate more benefit from R&D expenditure than single-functional ones, suggesting that the former group has a stronger R&D spillover effect. 3.Although the computer subgroup of IC design firms possesses high technological path dependence and low technological complexity, its R&D performance is not better than the other subgroups. This finding suggests that technological path dependence and complexity do not fully explain the difference in R&D performance among the three subgroups of single-functional IC design firms.

In accordance with its main goal, the main thesis shows which published data and indicators contemporary financial markets use to assess the state of major economies and forecast their short-term future development. Using Bloomberg as the primary source, the thesis provides a detailed analysis of the indicators and surveys sought by finance professionals when assessing the performance of the economy in the United States, the euro-zone (with emphasis on Germany) and, in the context of the impact on the global economy and markets, in China and Japan. A preliminary hypothesis about the similarity or closeness between the theoretical view and the practical approach of financial markets has been refuted. Instead, after close scrutiny and detailed analysis, we have established that financial markets put great emphasis on forward-looking indicators and monetary policy. This emphasis was confirmed by a survey of local investors. Using expert opinion and analysis, the thesis charts an overview of select economic indicators and their over- (payrolls, consumer sentiment) or undervaluation (regional Fed activity indexes, CFNAI).