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Three essays on properties, determinants and consequences of accounting standardsEisenschink, Timo 04 February 2014 (has links)
Diese kumulative Dissertation besteht aus drei eigenständigen Arbeiten aus dem Bereich der Rechnungslegungsforschung. Die erste Arbeit ist eine Befragungsstudie von 137 internationalen Rechnungslegungsforschern über die Fair-Value-Orientierung von 28 lokalen Rechnungslegungssystemen. Anhand der Umfrageergebnisse war es möglich, einen internationalen Fair-Value Score zu bilden. Dieser zeigt, dass das portugiesische, slowenische und das russische Rechnungslegungssystem am meisten und das österreichische, deutsche und italienische Rechnungslegungssystem am wenigsten Fair-Value orientiert ist. Die zweite Arbeit untersucht die Determinanten der Wahl von Rechnungslegungssystemen mittels eines Prinzipal-Agenten-Models. In dem Model kann ein risikoneutraler Entrepreneur (Prinzipal) mit einem Anreiz zur Konsumglättung zwischen zwei Rechnungslegungssystemen wählen. Das Rechnungslegungssystem wird genutzt, um eine effiziente vertragstheoretische Lösung mit dem Manager herbeizuführen und um Informationen über das Unternehmen für Kapitalmarktteilnehmer bereitzustellen. Die Modellergebnisse zeigen, dass der Entrepreneur eher gewillt ist das Fair-Value-orientierte Rechnungslegungssystem zu wählen, wenn die Bedeutung von Eigenkapitalmärkten steigt, die Opportunitätskosten des Managements steigen, die Produktivität des Managements sinkt und die Qualität des Enforcements von Rechnungslegungsregeln abnimmt. Die empirischen Ergebnisse bestätigen größtenteils die theoretischen Erwartungen. Die dritte Arbeit untersucht, ob die verpflichtende Einführung der IFRS bei gleichzeitiger Anpassung des Enforcements zu einer Verbesserung der Ergebnisqualität geführt hat. Die empirischen Ergebnisse sind uneinheitlich und können daher den vermuteten Effekt nicht bestätigen. / This cumulative PhD-thesis consists of three papers within the field of empirical accounting research. The first paper provides descriptive evidence on the fair value orientation of existing local GAAP systems by surveying the perception of 137 international accounting academics about the fair value orientation of 28 local GAAP systems. The survey results enable us to rank countries’ local GAAP systems by their fair value orientation. The score ranking shows that Portuguese, Slovenian and Russian GAAP are the top three and Austrian, German and Italian GAAP are the bottom three of the fair value orientation. Furthermore, we are able to show that the fair value orientation of IFRS is higher than any of the 28 local GAAP systems. The second paper investigates the determinants of financial accounting regime choice in a principal agent setting. The model considers a risk-neutral entrepreneur who needs financial accounting information for contracting with a managerial agent and for communicating the firm value to a risk-averse secondary capital market. The comparative static results indicate that the preference of the entrepreneur for a fair value accounting regime increases with the relative importance of the secondary capital market and the opportunity costs of the managerial agent, while it decreases with the overall quality of the accounting signal, the effectiveness of the enforcement process and managerial productivity. Empirical evidence, which is based on country-year and country-level and US time series analysis, provides support for most of the theoretical predictions. The third paper investigates whether earnings quality effects are more pronounced post mandatory IFRS adoption in countries that substantially changed their enforcement system of accounting standards in comparison to countries that already had a strict enforcement system in place. The empirical analysis gives inconclusive results for the earnings quality measures.
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動能策略與股票風格在台灣股市的實證研究鄭雅如, Cheng, Ya-Ju Unknown Date (has links)
本論文為驗證台灣股市是否存在價格持續性或盈餘持續性的現象;再驗證不同股票投資風格(如大型股與小型股、成長型股票與價值型股票),加上價格持續性組成投組後是否也存在動能持續現象;價格持續性和盈餘持續性是否相關;以及加入盈餘品質後,價格持續性及盈餘的持續的效果如何,並依此建構投資策略,測試是否可以在台灣股市獲取超額報酬。
本研究的實證結果可歸納為以下4點:
一、台灣股市存在股價動能效果及盈餘動能效果。
過去六個月表現好的投組,未來6個月及1年都有較佳的表現,投組形成後4年,即有明顯的回歸平均的現象。未預期盈餘高的投組在未來6個月到4年的報酬率都較高。不論是價格持續性或盈餘持續性,投組形成後6個月的動能持續現象較強,因此投組形成後1年的持續效果可能來自前6個月的貢獻。至於分析師盈餘預測修正幅度,投組形成後正向修正幅度大的投組,未來的股價表現反而不佳,統計檢定的效果也不顯著,顯示國內若要以分析師對盈餘預測的修正幅度來做為盈餘持續性的代理變數,盈餘預測的品質還尚待加強。
二、權益帳面價值對市值比及市值與價格持續性的關係。
權益價值對市值比較高的價值型股票及市值較小的小型股,未來報酬的表現情形都較成長股及大型股佳,且過去6個月表現好的投組,未來的表現也比較好。但在投資大型股時,過去6個月報酬影響未來報酬程度較大。
三、價格持續性與盈餘持續性的關係。
標準化後未預期盈餘高的投組表現通常會比較好,但未預期盈餘低且過去6個月報酬率高的投組,仍有可能會替投資人帶來極高的報酬。
四、盈餘品質與價格持續性及盈餘持續性的關係。
盈餘品質(EQ)高的投組通常表現會比較好,但不論EQ高低,短期價格及盈餘持續性現象都存在。而EQ較低的股票,之後一但股票報酬持續表現良好,投資人也會修正對該公司的評價,有過度反應的情形發生,導致未來的報酬率較高。
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股票報酬決定因素及股票報酬與盈餘間關係之研究 / The Determinants of Stock Returns and the Relationship between Stock Returns and Earnings彭火樹, Peng, Huo-Shu Unknown Date (has links)
台灣早期有關系統風險(β)的研究皆指出β不能解釋台灣股票報酬的變異,故控尋更能解釋股票報酬的風險因素為本文的主要目的之一。
本研究分析民國71年7月至85年5月股票上市公司資料(排除金融、保險、及變更交易方式的公司)。因民國79年股價指數從2月的最高點12,495急遽下滑至10月的2,560,故分析上將79年度予以排除。在71年7月至78年12月的時段中,整體市場因素(RM-RF)不能解釋股票報酬的變異。此點發現與台灣早期研究的結論一致。其他變數顯著者僅有與規模有關的因素(SZSMB),或與負債比率有關的因素(DEHML),其中以 SZSMB的解釋能力最強。在民國80年1月至85年5月的時段中,所有模式中整體市場因素( RM-RF)的係數皆顯著,並且是所有因素中最顯著者。這點發現與前時段(71年7月至78年12月)的結果有很大的不同。其他的變數顯著者,有代表成長機會的BMHML(與淨值市價比有關的因素)、EPHML(與益本比有關的因素)、或CPHML(與營運現金市價比有關的因素),及代表利率結構有關的風險因素TERM(與利率期間結構有關的風險溢酬)、或DFT(與利率違約風險有關的風險溢酬)。其中以(RM-RF)、EPHML、CPHML及TERM的風險組合最能解釋股票報酬的變異。
應用更完整的股票報酬解釋變數,探討股票報酬與盈餘間的關係,亦為本文主要目的之一。經分析以(1)各時段最能解釋股票報酬的因素組合為基礎,計算異常報酬;(2)單獨的以整體市場因素(RM-RF)為基礎計算異常報酬,然後再分別估出盈餘反應比較係數(ERC)比較之。結果顯示,以各時段最能顯著解釋股票報酬的因素組合為基礎的ERC為正的顯著,且其ERC大於只以整體市場因素(RM-RF)為基礎所算出的ERC。
另外,關於盈餘品質假說之測試,經以公司規模大小為虛擬變數放入迴歸式中,結果顯示,代表大公司的虛擬變數之係數時而為正,時而為負,且都不顯著,故盈餘品質假說未獲得支持。
再者,關於成長機會與ERC關係之測試,經以公司成長機會大小為虛擬變數放迴歸式中,結果顯示,代表成長機會的虛擬變數之系數時而為正,時而為負,且大都不顯著,故成長機會大的公司之ERC大於成長機會小的公司之ERC的假說,未獲得實證的支持。 / Earlier studies (Chen 1990; Chiu 1990; and Wang 1992) found that systematic risk (β) could not explain the variance of stock returns in Taiwan. The findings were inconsistent with the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). One of the major purposes of this paper is to examine the factors that have higher explanatory power of stock returns.
To test the hypotheses, this study uses the data of Taiwanese listed companies covering the period from July 1982 to may 1996. The 1990 data are excluded because the stock market index climbed to a record high of 12,495 in February 1990 and then fell sharply to allow level of 2,560 in October 1990. The "crash" might cause structural changes in stock market, so the analyses are conducted separately for the periods before and after the crash, namely the prior-crash period (from July 1982 to December 1989) and the post-crash period (from January 1991 to May 1996).
The empirical results show that for the prior-crash period the overall market factor (market returns minus risk free rate, RM-RF) can not explain the variance of stock returns. The findings are consistent with those of previous studies. However, we find that the factor-related to size (SZSMB) and the factor related to debt/equity ratio (DEHML) have significant association with stock returns. Furthermore, SZSMB has higher explanatory power. In contrast, the overall market factor is the most significant factor for the post-crash period. Other factors that are significant consisted of (1) proxies for growth opportunities, including book-to-market equity (BMHML), earnings/price ratio (EPHML), and cash flow/price ratio (CPHML), and (2) the factors related to interest structure, including term structure (TERM) and default risk (DFT). Among these factors, the set of RM-RF, EPHML, CPHML, and TERM explains the variance of stock returns most.
Another purpose of this paper is to use the aforementioned findings to study the relationship between stock returns and earnings. The results show that the earnings response coefficients based on the most explanatory factor portfolio of each period are positive and significant, and are greater than those based on the traditional systematic risk (β).
The tests for earnings quality hypothesis indicate that the coefficients of the dummy variable proxies for big companies are insignificant. The earnings quality hypothesis is not supported.
The tests regarding the relationship between growth opportunities and earnings response coefficients show that the coefficients of the dummy variable proxies for high growth companies are unstable. The hypothesis that the earnings response coefficients of high growth companies are greater than those of low growth companies is not supported by empirical evidence.
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