觀光事業素有無煙囪工業之稱，自政府於民國四十八年全力推動發展以來 ，來華觀光旅客人數即不斷地成長，此對促進國民外交與增加政府的外匯 收入上有莫大的幫助。觀光旅客人數的多寡，直接影響本地觀光業者與政 府相關單位對觀光業軟硬體設施的投資，像是觀光旅館的興建、導遊人員 的培訓以及整體策略的規劃。不當的評估或不正確的需求預測，都將導致 大量觀光資源的閒置或浪費。本研究計劃主要應用簡算法、時間趨勢模式 、時間序列模式、計量經濟模式，尋找並建立來華觀光旅客長短期需求預 測模式，並針對總體或各主要市場的需求，利用各種模式評估準則提出一 最佳預測模式，以供政府相關單位與觀光業者作為往後政策釐定以及投資 計劃擬定時的參考。

Partendo dalla constatazione della sempre maggiore complessità del contesto economico e sociale nazionale ed internazionale, imputabile da un lato al processo di integrazione economico e monetario europeo, e dall'altro alla progressiva decentralizzazione dei poteri a livello regionale, la tesi intende proporsi come uno strumento analitico di supporto al decisore. A tal fine, in base a dati annui di fonte ISTAT-SVIMEZ per il periodo 1970-2003, viene sviluppato un modello econometrico regionale 'globale' per il mercato del lavoro italiano, estendendo un precedente modello mono-regionale proposto da Baussola (2003), ad un contesto pluri-regionale. Il modello conduce non solo a rappresentare soddisfacentemente i mercati regionali italiani, ma opera altresì efficacemente nel ricostruire i valori delle variabili a livello nazionale. Il modello si conferma robusto ed efficace nel rappresentare le realtà regionali, anche nell'ottica di analisi propria dell'econometria delle serie storiche. / The starting point of this thesis is the remark that recent decades have been characterized by a rising complexity in the economic and political context both at the national and international level. This is due both to the European economic and monetary integration process and to the regional decentralisation process. With the aim of providing a useful tool of analysis for the decision-maker,. a 'global' regional model for the Italian labour market has been constructed on the basis of annual data from ISTAT-SVIMEZ over the 1970-2003 period. This model could be viewed as an extension to a multi-regional framework of the previous one-region model developed by Baussola (2003). The model shows good performance not only in representing regional labour market specificities, but also in reproducing national variable values. It is also robust and effective in a time-series context.

Attualmente i prezzi agricoli sono evidenziate in combinazione con i presunti effetti collaterali, come la fame e la malnutrizione nell’Africa sub-sahariana (SSA), tuttavia, oggi, SSA ha circa 47,5 per cento della popolazione rurale in condizioni di povertà e tra il 1990 e il 2005 quando i prezzi dei prodotti alimentari erano stabile e con prezzi bassi l'estrema povertà rurale in SSA è stato circa 64,6 per cento. Abbiamo ipotizzato che la malnutrizione o fame continuano in SSA perché li, la miseria persistono. La riduzione della povertà è l'unico modo per porre fine alla fame in Africa. Altresì per un paese agricolo in SSA – senza significative riserve di risorse minerarie – il modo migliore per risolvere la povertà è attraverso lo sviluppo agricolo. Nel nostro campione, sono nove paesi in SSA - Burundi, Ghana, Malawi, Mozambico, Ruanda, Uganda, Tanzania, Zambia e Zimbabwe – il cosiddetto SSA – 9. Abbiamo utilizzato un modello ricorsivo nel periodo tra 1990 e il 2005. Come risultato si è visto che gli strumenti principali che hanno avuto forte relazione con la riduzione della povertà in SSA - 9 sono alcune implicazioni politiche come; il diritto di proprietà, l'accesso al sistema di crediti, il capitale umano e le infrastrutture. / Nowadays, agricultural prices are highlighted combined with, as alleged collateral effects, hunger and malnutrition in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). However, today, SSA has around 47,5 percent of rural population in extreme poverty and between 1990 and 2005 when the food prices was stable and with low prices, extreme poverty in SSA involved around 64.6 percent. We assumed that the undernourishment or starvation continued in SSA because there the misery persisted. Poverty reduction is the only way to the end the hunger in Africa. Also, for an agricultural country in SSA – without significant mineral resources – the best way to solve the problem of poverty is through agricultural development. Our sample are nine countries in SSA – Burundi, Ghana, Malawi, Mozambique, Rwanda, Uganda, United Republic of Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe – the so called SSA – 9. Thus, we built up a recursive model that answered how the agricultural gears in SSA – 9 were moving between 1990 and 2005, as well as assessed how the agriculture could reduce rural poverty. As a result we saw that the main tools that had a strong relation with poverty reduction in SSA – 9 are some policies implications as; property rights, access to the credit system, human capital and infrastructure.

Energy is central to economic development. It has been established that there is a clear correlation between energy consumption and living standards. Nigeria is a country of very industrious and enterprising people. However, due to non availability of adequate energy in the country, especially in the remote, off grid locations, the entrepreneurial inclination of the average Nigerian living in these locations has been largely stunted. Over the years, successive governments in the country, in realisation of the pivotal role of energy in national development, have explored various options to improve energy supply and availability, but the situation has not experienced any remarkable improvement. This has forced many businesses and households to resort to self provision through generators, often at exorbitant costs. This research work addresses the challenge of energy in remote, off grid locations by appraising the techno economic potential of renewable energy, using Obudu Ranch as a case study. This ranch is the foremost tourism resort in Nigeria, and has played host to a number of international events over the years. Presently, electricity is being generated through the use of diesel powered generating sets. The adjoining communities are currently without electricity, although a few of the residents have acquired generators for self provision, mostly for their domestic use. Aside the high cost associated with this, the discharge of noxious contaminants into the atmosphere is undesirable. The research entailed a working collaboration with some notable Non Governmental Organisations (NGOs) that have done extensive ground work in the area for access to some secondary data, as well as a number of corporate and governmental agencies that are relevant to the study. Further, the ranch was visited to establish hands-on, the existing renewable energy sources. A trade-off of these sources was carried out with reference to a number of relevant evaluation parameters to identify the most suited option for addressing the energy challenge. A comparative analysis of this selected source was then made to establish its techno economic potential against the existing source of power generation- diesel powered generating sets, which currently costs R1.5 million annually in running expenses. The findings from this research have established that a Renewable Energy source (mini hydro) is a more cost effective option than the diesel powered gen set, providing a 43% reduction in cost of energy generation, and a 42% reduction in the life cycle cost over the five year of analysis, compared to the status quo. In addition, it is also more environmentally friendly. Conclusively, the findings and recommendations of this research effort, if well implemented, will be beneficial to the ranch, the adjoining communities and other relevant stakeholders. / Thesis (M.Ing. (Development and Management Engineering))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2009.

Energy is central to economic development. It has been established that there is a clear correlation between energy consumption and living standards. Nigeria is a country of very industrious and enterprising people. However, due to non availability of adequate energy in the country, especially in the remote, off grid locations, the entrepreneurial inclination of the average Nigerian living in these locations has been largely stunted. Over the years, successive governments in the country, in realisation of the pivotal role of energy in national development, have explored various options to improve energy supply and availability, but the situation has not experienced any remarkable improvement. This has forced many businesses and households to resort to self provision through generators, often at exorbitant costs. This research work addresses the challenge of energy in remote, off grid locations by appraising the techno economic potential of renewable energy, using Obudu Ranch as a case study. This ranch is the foremost tourism resort in Nigeria, and has played host to a number of international events over the years. Presently, electricity is being generated through the use of diesel powered generating sets. The adjoining communities are currently without electricity, although a few of the residents have acquired generators for self provision, mostly for their domestic use. Aside the high cost associated with this, the discharge of noxious contaminants into the atmosphere is undesirable. The research entailed a working collaboration with some notable Non Governmental Organisations (NGOs) that have done extensive ground work in the area for access to some secondary data, as well as a number of corporate and governmental agencies that are relevant to the study. Further, the ranch was visited to establish hands-on, the existing renewable energy sources. A trade-off of these sources was carried out with reference to a number of relevant evaluation parameters to identify the most suited option for addressing the energy challenge. A comparative analysis of this selected source was then made to establish its techno economic potential against the existing source of power generation- diesel powered generating sets, which currently costs R1.5 million annually in running expenses. The findings from this research have established that a Renewable Energy source (mini hydro) is a more cost effective option than the diesel powered gen set, providing a 43% reduction in cost of energy generation, and a 42% reduction in the life cycle cost over the five year of analysis, compared to the status quo. In addition, it is also more environmentally friendly. Conclusively, the findings and recommendations of this research effort, if well implemented, will be beneficial to the ranch, the adjoining communities and other relevant stakeholders. / Thesis (M.Ing. (Development and Management Engineering))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2009.

Submitted by ALEXANDRE CONCEICAO (alemgc@gmail.com) on 2017-09-14T01:37:47Z No. of bitstreams: 1 dissertacao-alexandre-conceicao.pdf: 2127579 bytes, checksum: 809d5da780c4b1ae1c60b356b8ef1fbf (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Thais Oliveira (thais.oliveira@fgv.br) on 2017-09-14T17:48:55Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 dissertacao-alexandre-conceicao.pdf: 2127579 bytes, checksum: 809d5da780c4b1ae1c60b356b8ef1fbf (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-09-15T12:16:46Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 dissertacao-alexandre-conceicao.pdf: 2127579 bytes, checksum: 809d5da780c4b1ae1c60b356b8ef1fbf (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-08-23 / Using dynamic factor models, one can analyse stocastic processes having multiple dimensions, that being the case on financial markets when considering the series formed by the stock prices. By using the model predictions it is possible to create trading strategies and measure their performance. With the closing prices of the stocks belonging to the IBX100 index from 2010 till 2016, the model parameters were estimated and trading strategies were proposed. The performance indicators of some strategies were superior than those of the IBOVESPA index on the given period of time, offering anualized returns of 27% and a 48% maximum drawdawn against 1.12% anualized return and 48% maximum drawdawn on the IBOVESPA. Therefore, those models are capable of capturing the price dynamic in such a way that their predictions can be used to create trading strategies having a performance higher than that of the IBOVESPA index. / O uso de modelos de fatores dinâmicos permite analisar processos estocásticos com grande número de dimensões, sendo exatamente esse o caso do mercado financeiro quando se consideram as séries formadas pelos preços de ações. Ao se utilizar as previsões feitas pelos modelos, é possível criar estratégias de trading cuja performance pode ser aferida. De posse dos preços de fechamento de ativos pertencentes ao IBX100 no período de 2010 até 2016, os parâmetros do modelo foram estimados e estratégias de trading foram propostas. Os indicadores de performance de algumas das estratégias superaram aqueles do índice IBOVESPA no período estudado, oferecendo retorno anualizado de até 27% e máximo drawdawn de 21%, contra um retorno de 1.12% e max drawdawn de 48% do IBOVESPA. Portanto, esses modelos são capazes de capturar a dinâmica dos preços de ações na medida em que suas previsões podem ser utilizadas para criar estratégias de trading com performance superior à do Índice IBOVESPA.

El presente trabajo de investigación tiene como objetivo evaluar la fuente de energía (renovable y no renovable) que fomente en mayor medida el crecimiento económico en el Perú. Para ello, se observó la relación entre el crecimiento económico y las diferentes fuentes de energía en el corto plazo y el largo plazo. Además, se utilizó el método autorregresivo con retardos distribuidos (ARDL) para confirmar la relación a largo plazo de las series. El modelo ARDL confirmó la cointegración entre las variables y con ello, la relación a largo y corto plazo. Los hallazgos que arrojó la estimación afirman que el consumo de energía renovable se relaciona positivamente con el PBI en el corto y largo plazo. Por lo tanto, se concluye que la economía peruana debería invertir aún más en la exploración y explotación de recursos de energía renovable. / The objective of this research work is to evaluate the source of energy (renewable and non-renewable) that promotes economic growth in Peru to a greater extent. For this, the relationship between economic growth and different energy sources in the short and long term was observed. In addition, the autoregressive distributed lag method (ARDL) was used to confirm the long-term relationship of the series. The ARDL model confirmed the cointegration between the variables and with it, the long- and short-term relationship. The findings that the estimation yielded affirm that the consumption of renewable energy is positively related to the GDP in the short and long term. Therefore, it is concluded that the Peruvian economy should invest even more in the exploration and exploitation of renewable energy resources. / Trabajo de investigación

本論文主在以計量經濟的方法研究廣告費用與市場占有率的關係，廣告的延續效果(c arryover offect)及持續時間(duration interval) 為本文的研究重點。由此而衍伸 出的政策涵意則為本論文的最後目的。由敘述性(descriptive) 的了解事實真象到規 範性(normative) 的理智決策過程，即為本論文的貢獻所在。 論文架構分為下列章節：一、前言：包括研究目的、動機二、相關文獻探討：分為( 一) 事前模式(A Priori Model)( 二) 計量經濟模式(Econometric Model) 三、廣告 研究上的一些計量經濟方法四、汽水產業的實證研究：包括( 一) 模式的建立( 二) 模式的估計(三)模式的檢定，五、政策上的涵意六、建議事項，初步估計約三萬字。

保險公司清償能力一直是保險監理的重心，在所有現行的制度中風險基礎資本是最重要的，但此項制度仍有其缺點，因此其他動態分析模型被許多學者所提出，如涉險值及情境分析。雖然這些動態分析模型被學者所偏好，但監理機關仍須對這些模型的精確程度加以了解，這也是本篇論文所要研究的目的。 基於此，本篇論文以模擬方式及經濟模型加以分析風險基礎資本、情境分析及涉險值等方法的破產預測的相對精確性。其中風險基礎資本完全採用現有NAIC的年報資料，情境分析及涉險值則採用我們所建立的模型，基於此也可以確認現有監理制度是否有缺失。 我們的結果發現風險基礎資本的預測能力很低，動態模型-情境分析及涉險值皆優於風險基礎資本，且在不同動態模型中涉險值的預測能力較好。因此可知被學者所偏好的動態分析模型應是未來保險監理的方向希望藉由本篇提供監理機關一個參考的依據。 / Solvency prediction of insurers has been the focus of insurance regulation. Among the solvency regulation systems, risked-based capital (RBC) is the most important but RBC still has some drawbacks. Thus, the dynamic financial analyses-scenario analysis and Value at Risk have been developed to be the regulation tool. Although, the scholars prefer the dynamic financial analysis, the regulators still want to make sure the accuracy of dynamic financial analysis. That is the purpose of our paper. Therefore, we use the simulation result and the econometric model to analyze the relative effectiveness of RBC, scenario and Value at Risk (VaR). The RBC is from the annual statement and the scenario and VaR come from our simulation model. Our result shows that the RBC has very low explanatory power, the dynamic financial analysis is better than RBC, and VaR outperform scenario analysis. Thus, we conclude that VaR is the way to go for property-casualty insurance regulators.

Submitted by Carlos Aurélio Bustamante Gonçalves (carlos.a.b.goncalves@gmail.com) on 2016-12-01T22:33:16Z No. of bitstreams: 1 carlos gonçalves - Dissertação - o mercado de caminhões no brasil -01122016.pdf: 3390001 bytes, checksum: df0eedc2484f2a8784dda76039181601 (MD5) / Rejected by Fabiana da Silva Segura (fabiana.segura@fgv.br), reason: Boa Noite, Prezado Carlos Peço corrigir alguns itens de formatação conforme segue: - Excluir o acento do nome Getulio nas páginas - Nome deve ser em maiúsculo (alternar, nas páginas que tiver o nome) - Titulo também em fonte maiúscula (alterar nas páginas que contém o título) - No rodapé permanece somente São Paulo - excluir o - SP - Linha de Pesquisa: Finanças e Economia de Empresas, alterar nas páginas que contém a lnha - Excluir na contra capa abaixo no nome do orientado FGV - EAESP - Folha de Assinaturas, alterar a linha de pesquisa e colocar a data de aprovação: 17/11/2016 Peço proceder com as alterações e submeter o trabalho novamente on 2016-12-01T23:28:13Z (GMT) / Submitted by Carlos Aurélio Bustamante Gonçalves (carlos.a.b.goncalves@gmail.com) on 2016-12-02T02:34:57Z No. of bitstreams: 1 carlos gonçalves - Dissertação - o mercado de caminhões no brasil -02122016.pdf: 3391454 bytes, checksum: 7cdcde7e62ecc28be15ec876866cca96 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Fabiana da Silva Segura (fabiana.segura@fgv.br) on 2016-12-02T14:03:17Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 carlos gonçalves - Dissertação - o mercado de caminhões no brasil -02122016.pdf: 3391454 bytes, checksum: 7cdcde7e62ecc28be15ec876866cca96 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-12-02T18:40:07Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 carlos gonçalves - Dissertação - o mercado de caminhões no brasil -02122016.pdf: 3391454 bytes, checksum: 7cdcde7e62ecc28be15ec876866cca96 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-11-17 / Este estudo trata do comportamento da demanda por caminhões novos no Brasil no período de 1996 a 2015 e da investigação dos fatores que a influenciam. Tal questão é relevante devido à escassez de estudos acerca deste tema, ainda que se trate do modo historicamente predominante de transporte de carga no país. O objetivo de pesquisa é determinar e quantificar os fatores que provocam o aumento ou diminuição das vendas de caminhão no Brasil. Para atingir este objetivo, foram construídos modelos econométricos a partir de dados secundários. Proxies utilizadas em outros modelos de demanda automotiva foram confirmadas e refinadas, enquanto novas proxies foram introduzidas com sucesso. Quanto aos resultados, este estudo inovou ao identificar três tipos de determinantes, e ao detalhar os efeitos e defasagens de suas influências: variáveis relacionadas especificamente ao mercado de caminhões, variáveis relacionadas ao PIB e variáveis relacionadas à confiança do comprador. Adicionalmente, realizou-se uma verificação da causalidade entre crédito e vendas, com o surpreendente resultado de que a influência ocorre no sentido de vendas para crédito. Com estes resultados, este estudo dissemina o conhecimento a respeito do comportamento do mercado a toda a cadeia produtiva, melhorando a qualidade das decisões e proporcionando aumento da eficiência para o sistema como um todo. / This is a study on the demand for new trucks in Brazil from 1996 to 2015, and an investigation on the factors that influence it. This topic is relevant due to the scarcity of studies concerning the subject, and due to the overwhelming domination of trucks in cargo transport in Brazil. It aims identify and quantify the variables that drive the sales of trucks. To reach this goal, econometric models were constructed based on secondary data. Variables usually adopted in other studies on automotive demand were confirmed and even refined and new variables were successfully introduced. This study innovates by identifying three groups of variables, and by detailing the effects and the lags of their influence: variables specific to the truck market, variables related to GDP, and variables related to the decision maker’s confidence. Additionally, a causality analysis involving credit and truck sales was performed, unexpectedly resulting in sales causing credit. Through these results, this study disseminates knowledge about the behavior of the truck market to the entire productive chain, contributing to evolve the quality of decisions and the efficiency of the entire system.