Thesis (MBA (Graduate School of Business))--University of Stellenbosch, 2010. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This present study investigates the directional link between stock market development and economic growth in Zambia for the period 2002-2009, using quarterly data. While there is numerous empirical research conducted on this topic, none of it constitutes an in-depth study of the causal relationship of stock market development and economic growth in Zambia. The investigation of the causal relationship is conducted by using two methods: the recent and better Toda and Yamamoto Causality Test, and the older and popular Granger causality test. As highlighted by recent studies, the results of the Toda and Yamamoto Causality Test approach are more reliable than those of the Granger Causality Test approach, and are therefore preferred for this study. The Granger Causality Test is employed in the study for comparison purposes with the new Toda and Yamamoto approach, as well as comparison with the only study done on Zambia on the topic. Results of the Toda and Yamamoto approach support the demand following hypothesis that economic growth causes stock market development. The Granger Causality Test results lend support to the Independent view that stock market development and economic growth are independent of each other. The Granger Causality Test results support the prior study done on Zambia using the same technique but based on panel data instead of time series data as is the case for the present study. However, as the Granger Causality Test approach inherently has a number of problems, its results are unreliable. Based on the result of the Toda Yamamoto approach, the study argues that the Zambian stock exchange could help promote further economic growth in the country and should therefore be integrated in the whole economic system. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie studie ondersoek die ooreenkoms tussen aandeelmarkontwikkeling en ekonomiese groei in Zambia vir die periode 2002-2009 met die gebruik van kwartaallikse data. Die ondersoek om die verhouding te bepaal word deur twee metodes gedoen naamlik die onlangse en beter “Toda and Yamamoto” toets en die ouer en populêre “Granger” toets. Soos onlangs uitgewys is die uitslae van die “Toda and Yamamoto” toets meer akkuraat as die “Granger” toets en word derhalwe verkies vir hierdie studie. Die Granger toets word gebruik vir vergelykings met die “Toda and Yamamoto” benadering asook vergelyking met die enigste studie wat in Zambië gedoen is op hierdie vakgebied. Resultate van die Toda benadering ondersteun die stelling dat ekonomiese groei veroorsaak aandelemarkontwikkeling terwyl die Granger toets die siening dat markontwikkeling en ekonomiese groei onafhanklik van mekaar is ondersteun. Die Granger toets ondersteun die vorige studie op Zambië wat dieselfde metodiek gebruik het maar wat gebaseer is op “panel data” in plaas van tyd series data soos in die huidige studie. Die Granger studie het 'n aantal inherente probleme en die resultate is daarom onbetroubaar. Gebaseer op die Toda benadering word in die studie geargumenteer dat die Zambiese beurs verdere ekonomiese groei kan bevorder en behoort derhalwe geïntegreerd te word in die hele ekonomiese stelsel.

Thesis (MBA (Business Management))--Stellenbosch University, 2008. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This research studies the relationship between economic growth and commodity-market volatility in South Africa. The mining industry, largely supported by gold, diamonds, coal, iron ore and platinum-group metals, has played a central role in South Africa's economic development. The commodities that were selected for the study are the five major minerals, namely gold, coal, iron are, platinum-group metals and diamonds. It investigates two central questions, the first of which is whether the mining of the above commodities still makes a significant contribution to the South African economy in terms of employment, revenue and foreign-currency earning. The second is whether there is a link that reflects a statistically and economically significant association between commodity-price volatility and economic growth in South Africa. The economic environment in South Africa has been extremely positive, with a growth averaging around 5% for the period 2004-2006. An important contributing factor to this favourable environment has been the behaviour of mineral commodity prices. Mining makes a direct and indirect contribution of approximately 15% to GOP, accounts for around 50% of merchandise exports (including primary and beneficiated mineral exports), 12% of fixed investment, 30% of the market value of the JSE limited and 20% of formal-sector employment. Therefore, mining remains a key foundation of the South African economy. Time series data analysis confirms that the volatility of the major foreign currency-earning commodities - gold, platinum, coal, diamonds and iron ore - are negatively or weakly related. This relationship actually reflects the harmful effect of the volatility of these commodities on economic growth. Until recently, South Africa was heavily dependent on exports of primary commodities. Since the commodity prices are highly volatile, South Africa has to cope with large shocks, both positive and negative. Commodity cycles used to be determined by the growth cycle in the United States, but more recently, with the emergence of the Asian economies and China, in particular, the dominant influence of the United States economy on the commodity cycle has waned. The continuing instability in commodity prices and export earnings of South Africa has to be addressed by diversifying the exports towards more dynamic products; particularly manufactured goods and services. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die verwantskap tussen ekonomiese groei in Suid-Afrika en die mynbedryf, wat hoofsaaklik ondersteun word deur goud, diamante, steenkool, ystererts en die platinumgroepmetale, het 'n sentrale rol in Suid-Afrika se ekonomiese ontwikkeling gespeel. Die kommoditeite wat vir hierdie navorsing gebruik word, is die vyf belangrikste minerale, naamlik goud, steenkool, ystererts, die platinumgroepmetale en diamante. Twee sleutelvraagstukke word hier ondersoek, waarvan die eerste dit bevraagteken of die ontginning van bogenoemde kommoditeite nog steeds 'n belangrike bydrae tot die Suid-Afrikaanse ekonomie lewer wat indiensneming, inkomste en buitelandse valuta betref. Tweedens word daar ondersoek of daar enige skakel is wat 'n statistiese en ekonomies betekenisvolle verwantskap tussen kommoditeitsprysonbestendigheid en die ekonomiese groei van Suid-Afrika weerspieel. Die ekonomiese omgewing in Suid-Afrika was besonder positief, met 'n groeikoers van ongeveer 5% gedurende die 2004-2006-tydperk. Die gedrag van mineraalkommoditeitspryse het 'n belangrike bydrae tot die gunstige ekonomiese omgewing gelewer. Mynwese lewer 'n direkte en indirekte bydrae van ongeveer 15% tot die algemene binnelandse produk, is verantwoordelik vir ongeveer 50% van die uitvoer van handelsware (insluitend primere en veredelde mineraaluitvoere), 12% van vaste beleggings, 30% van die markwaarde van die Johannesburgse Aandelebeurs en 20% van die werksgeleenthede in die formele sektor. Daarom is mynwese 'n sentrale deel van die Suid-Afrikaanse ekonomie. Die ontleding van tydreeksdata bevestig dat die onbestendigheid van die belangrikste kommoditeite wat buitelandse valuta verdien, naamlik goud, platinum, steenkool, diamante en ystererts, negatief of swak verwant is. Hierdie verwantskap weerspieel eerder die skadelike uitwerking van hierdie kommoditeite se onbestendigheid op ekonomiese groei. Tot onlangs was Suid-Afrika grootliks afhanklik van die uitvoer van primere kommoditeite en die pryse van hierdie kommoditeite is baie onbestendig. Suid-Afrika moes dus groot skokke, positief sowel as negatief, die hoof bied. Die groeisiklus in Amerika het in die verlede die kommoditeitsiklusse bepaal, maar meer onlangs het die Asiatiese ekonomiee en veral China die dominante invloed van ekonomiese Amerika laat afneem. Die voortdurende onstabiliteit in kommoditeitspryse en buitelandse inkomste vir Suid-Afrika moet meer aandag geniet deur uitvoere te diversifiseer na meer dinamiese produkte, veral vervaardigde produkte en dienslewering.

This paper presents a theoretical growth model that extends the Mankiw-Romer-Weil [MRW] model by accounting for technological interdependence among regional economies. Interdependence is assumed to work through spatial externalities caused by disembodied knowledge diffusion. The transition from theory to econometrics leads to a reduced-form empirical spatial Durbin model specification that explains the variation in regional levels of per worker output at steady state. A system of 198 regions across 22 European countries over the period from 1995 to 2004 is used to empirically test the model. Testing is performed by assessing the importance of cross-region technological interdependence, and measuring direct and indirect (spillover) effects of the MRW determinants on regional output. (author's abstract)

This paper presents a theoretical growth model that extends the Mankiw-Romer-Weil [MRW] model by accounting for technological interdependence among regional economies. Interdependence is assumed to work through spatial externalities caused by disembodied knowledge diffusion. The transition from theory to econometrics leads to a reduced-form empirical spatial Durbin model specification that explains the variation in regional levels of per worker output at steady state. A system of 198 regions across 22 European countries over the period from 1995 to 2004 is used to empirically test the model. Testing is performed by assessing the importance of cross-region technological interdependence, and measuring direct and indirect (spillover) effects of the MRW determinants on regional output. (author's abstract)

This dissertation consists of three essays on capital controls and exchange rate regimes. The first essay, under the background of international monetary policy trilemma, empirically investigates the validity of the proposition that holding the degree of exchange rate stability constant, a decrease in capital mobility through imposition of capital controls will enhance monetary independence. Using a panel dataset covering 88 countries for the 1995-2010 period and system GMM estimation, this paper finds that 1) capital controls help improve a country’s monetary independence; 2) the effectiveness of capital controls depends on the types of assets and the direction of flows they are imposed; 3) the choice of exchange rate regime has important impact on the effectiveness of capital controls on monetary independence. The second essay examines the role of capital controls on economic growth. Conventional wisdom suggests that allowing international capital flows improves domestic investment and growth by providing extra resources through international capital market, yet the flows can be misallocated to finance speculative or low-quality domestic investments. Using a panel dataset covering 78 countries over 1995-2009, this paper finds that 1) capital control policies promote economic growth after taking into account a country’s de facto level of capital flows; 2) controls on capital inflows helps a country’s economic growth, but not controls on outflows; 3) restrictions on different asset types affect growth differently. Capital controls on equity type flows are less effective than controls on debt type flows or direct investment. The third examines the role of exchange rate flexibility on current account balances. Global imbalances have become an important issue for economists and policy makers. Greater exchange rate flexibility is often suggested as a means to achieve faster and more efficient adjustment in the current account. However, previous empirical studies show little support for this hypothesis. This essay revisits this issue with a large panel dataset and Threshold VAR model and finds that 1) the speed of the current account adjustment is higher in a regime with greater exchange rate variability; 2) some existing popular exchange rate classifications may not capture actual exchange rate variability as well as expected.

近年來中國在經濟上的成就是有目共賭的，並儼然成為帶動世界經濟成長的重要推動力。為因應社會主義市場經濟的建立和發展，並解決原稅制與市場經濟發展不相配合的問題，中國自1980年起進行多次的財政改革，將中央政府的財政權力下放給地方政府。也由於此一「財政分權」的設計，加強地方政府發展經濟的財政誘因，不但帶動了地方經濟的發展，也因地方財政收入增加而提高了地方公共財的投資，更進一步的促進經濟成長。然而，隨著地方經濟的發展和勢力的壯大，「先發地區」政府利用其經濟優勢，向中央或上級政府爭取更多的政策優惠和發展資源；但對於「後發地區」政府，由於經濟落後，因而與中央談判的籌碼不多，致使各地方政府分配到的財政資源殊異。 本篇文章之主要研究目的，即為探討改革開放後中國地方財政不均度對經濟成長的影響。本研究將利用1979年至2006年的時間序列資料來分析，中國地方財政分配不均度對於其經濟成長是否呈現正向的貢獻。於本研究中，將回顧現有文獻中，關於地方財政分配不均度對經濟成長影響之相關理論與實證文獻。其次，本文也將清楚地介紹與說明，改革開放以來中國地方財政分配不均度與其經濟成長間關係之現況。再者，本研究將建立九組實證模型，並透過共整合ARDL模型來試圖捕捉到更全面性的中國地方財政不均度與其經濟成長之關係。本文主要發現可分為長期與短期兩部分。先就長期而言，中國地方財政不均度對其經濟成長有著顯著且為正向的關係。再就短期而言，中國地方財政不均度對其經濟成長則呈現不顯著或顯著且為正向的關係。最後，為了降低實證模型發生錯誤的機會，並使研究過程更為嚴謹，本研究將對實證模型和估計結果使用更多方法檢定。 / The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of regional fiscal distribution inequality on the economic growth in post-reform China. By using of the time-series data during the period of 1979-2006, this study analyzes whether or not China’s regional fiscal distribution inequality provides a positive effect for economic growth. Both theoretical papers and empirical papers related to the relationship between regional fiscal distribution inequality and economic growth are reviewed. This study establishes nine empirical models and are estimated by ARDL with cointegration model which attempts to catch the relationship more comprehensively between regional fiscal distribution inequality and the economic growth in China. The main finding of this study is that China’s regional fiscal distribution inequality has the significantly positive effect on its economic growth in the long run. In the short run, China’s regional fiscal distribution inequality has the significantly positive effect or not has an effect on its economic growth. Finally, in order to reduce the mistakes occurred in positive models and enable the study more rigorous, this study uses more methods to test the models and the result.

無 / Since 1980, due to the reform and opening door policies, the economy has developed rapidly and the demand for energy has greatly increased in China. Nowadays China needs to continue economic growth to last the survival of CCP regime. Therefore economic growth is the core of China. Since Chinese economic growth depends on its energy supplies. To sustain economic growth, China not only tries to acquire offshore oil deposits, but also must rely upon oversea oil. China has become heavily reliant on foreign oil supplies and also becomes the highly competitive country in oil resource on the world. The majority of China’s oil import is through sea transportation. This over-reliance on sea lanes of communication (SLOC) causes China to fall into face great risks. Beijing feels vulnerable in its Oil transporting lanes and therefore attempts to maintain the stability of its imported oil supplies by securing SLOC to sustain its economic growth. Under these circumstances, the development of the PLA Navy thus becomes a key factor of Chinese prosperity. Beijing becomes aware that a strong navy could protect its oil transporting lanes. However, China does not have a strong navy to acquire its oil transporting lanes. However, China does not have a strong navy to acquire its oil transporting lanes and offshore oil deposits. For this reason, the development of PLA Navy is a natural trend for Chinese expanding national interests. China wants to defend its SLOC far away from its coast to sustain oil supplies stability so that conducts its naval” far sea defense” policy to build a blue-water navy.

對一開放經濟體系而言，當面臨國際經濟波動的衝擊時，經濟成長率會受到國際經濟波動的衝擊幅度以及其外債負擔額度所影響。本論文第二章建立一個開放經濟的貨幣內生成長模型，在爬行釘住匯率制度下，生產技術以實物資本作為生產要素投入，加上貨幣進入交易成本的設定，從最適均衡的角度來探討當一國經濟體系遭受國際經濟波動的衝擊時，如何透過風險貼水管道來影響經濟成長的表現，以及探討國際金融危機傳遞的過程，同時並探究外債減輕政策的成效。我們發現在最適均衡成長下，當一國面臨國際經濟波動的衝擊時，不但會使長期外債−資本比率下降與實質貨幣−資本比率上升外，同時也伴隨者對國內實質資本需求的減少，進而降低經濟成長率。國際經濟波動所帶來的不利影響會因外債的減輕而獲得紓緩，而有助於經濟成長。 第三章利用亞洲及拉丁美洲20個國家的追蹤資料，檢定過度債務假說的存在以及外債對金融部門發展與經濟成長的影響。實證結果顯示，外債對GDP比率對一國經濟成長具有顯著的負面影響效果，過度債務假說成立；過度債務會透過抑制金融部門的發展，進而妨礙一國的經濟成長。此外，本章的實證結果也顯示一國金融部門的發展與經濟成長，彼此間存在顯著的雙向交互影響關係。 在第四章中，我們同樣利用亞洲及拉丁美洲國家的追蹤資料，藉以衡量外債、國外直接投資、及經濟成長之間的交叉影響效果。實證結果顯示，在這些國家中，國外直接投資對經濟成長具有正面的貢獻，但是過度債務會不利於這些國家的經濟成長。最後，我們也發現一國金融部門發展的健全程度在這之間扮演了重要的角色，即金融市場愈健全的國家，其國外直接投資所帶來對經濟成長的貢獻程度也就愈大。 / For a small open economy, sovereign debt and default have important effects on both economic fluctuations and growth. The instability caused by high levels of external debt may adversely affect economic growth. Consequently, the purpose of chapter 2 is to set out a framework for developing countries embedding nominal money balances to facilitate transactions cost model. Output is produced using a stock of broad-concept productive capital, the international financial externality, and investment expenditures involving adjustment costs. We provide a theoretical formalization that is the base for and explanation of the contagion of financial crises, and find that debt relief is expected to stimulate growth by releasing resources from debt service to investments in infrastructure and reduce the risk of spread. Such investments, in turn, enhance domestic investment, besides attracting private foreign investment. Moreover, we have also found that debt relief will raise the real output capital ratio, the market value of capital, and the real balance-capital ratio, and promote economic growth in the long run. In chapter 3, we use panel data of 20 high external debt countries selected from Asia and Latin-America to investigate the financial sector development-debt-growth nexus within the framework of an endogenous growth and financial development mechanism. First, we found that among 20 high external debt countries, the external debt-to-GDP ratio is significantly negatively correlated with economic growth rates, indicating that excessive debt is detrimental to the growth of an economy. Second, we introduced the simultaneous GMM equations between financial sector development and economic growth to evaluate the interaction effects among economic growth, external debt, and financial sector development. In empirical results, we find that the negative impact of high debt on growth appears to operate through a strong negative effect, in terms of compulsion to resort to financially repressive policies. In addition, we also find a two-way relationship between financial sector development and economic growth. Further, this dissertation also aims to investigate how the link between FDI and economic growth in developing countries. Chapter 4 explores the interplay between foreign direct investment (FDI), external debt and economic growth using panel data analysis for a sample of Asian and Latin American countries. First we use several different panel data models to investigate the determinants of economic growth. Our results suggest that FDI contribute positively to long-term economic growth in these countries, and the percentage of external debt to GDP is negatively correlated with the economic growth rate, indicate that debt overhang impeded growth in Asia and Latin America. Secondly, we introduced the simultaneous GMM equation between FDI and economic growth to examine the various linkages among the relevant determinants of FDI, external debt and economic growth. In empirical results, we find financial development plays an important role in influencing the effects of FDI on output, countries with well-developed financial markets gain significantly from FDI in terms of their growth rates. Furthermore, the negative impact of the short-term debt to external debt ratio, on growth appears to operate through a negative effect on FDI inflows. In addition, we also find evidence that the hypotheses of growth-driven FDI and FDI-led growth are developed on the basis of recent studies on economic effects of FDI in both regions.

The aim of this thesis is to describe and analyse the adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) in the Chinese accounting standards and its possible effects on the accounting quality in financial reports and the economic growth of China. The accounting quality will be examinedthrough five chosen quality aspects: value relevance, faithful representation, comparability, earnings management and transparency. In addition, the view on the level of foreign direct investments will indicate if there has been any effect on economic growth. In order to fulfil thisaim a field study has been conducted, which involves interviews with people within the Chinese accounting industry. The theoretical framework contains an introduction to accounting and its connection to economic growth; background on IFRS and PRC GAAP; an outline of the chosen quality aspects;and finally a commentary on previous research and evidence in IFRS adoption and its effects on accounting quality and foreign direct investments. The empirical findings include the respondents’ view on the adoption of IFRS, accounting quality aspects, FDI and economic growth. The analysis deals with the respondents’ views in the empirical findings, and shows that these views differ on some of the quality aspects such as earnings management and are more consistent when it comes to other aspects such as value relevance. There is belief in the adoption of IFRS and its effects on the accounting quality and economic growth. However, the analysis further demonstrates current obstacles within the new PRC GAAP, such as the use of the fair value, which may problematize the accounting quality. The conclusion demonstrates that the majority of the respondents have experienced an improved overall accounting quality, which they believe has contributed to an enhanced level of foreign direct investment. Moreover, the results reveal a general view among the respondents that the adoption of IFRS also has contributed to the economic growth of China, through the increased level of foreign direct investments.

This thesis addresses the question, whether the impact of financial development on the relative and absolute indicators of poverty is dependent on the levels of the human capital present in an economy. To answer this question, first we develop a theoretical framework to explain the growth process in the context of financial development assuming that human capital is heterogeneous in terms of the skills and education people have. Then, by using the data sets based on five-year averages over 1960-2010 and 1980-2010, covering 107 developed and developing countries, we empirically investigate the extensions of the theoretical framework developed earlier. These extensions cover the relationships between: 1. Income inequality and economic growth 2. Financial development, human capital and income inequality, and 3. Financial development, human capital and poverty We provide empirical evidence using modern panel data techniques of dynamic and static GMM. The findings elucidate that income inequality and economic growth are inter-dependent on each other. There exists an inverse relationship between initial inequality and economic growth. The changes in income inequality follow the pattern identified by Kuznets (1955) known as Kuznets’ hypothesis. The results also show that financial development helps in reducing income inequalities and in alleviating poverty, only when there is a sufficient level of human capital available. On the basis of our findings we develop the term "effective financial development" which means that financial development is effective in accelerating growth levels, reducing income inequalities and alleviating poverty only if there is a sufficient level of human capital available. The empirical study covers multiple aspects of financial development like private credit extended by banks and other financial institutions, liquid liabilities and stock market capitalization. The results of the empirical investigations are robust to multiple data sets and various indicators of income inequality, financial development, poverty and human capital. The study also provides marginal analysis, which helps in understanding the impact of financial development on inequality and poverty at different levels of human capital. This research study of effective financial development can be a useful learning paradigm for the academics and researchers interested in growth economics and keen to learn how poverty and income inequality can be reduced effectively. This study can also be useful for the policy makers in the financial institutions, because it provides robust empirical evidence that shows that financial development cannot help in alleviating poverty and in reducing inequalities unless there is a sufficient level of human capital available. The findings can be useful for policy makers, particularly in the developing countries where high levels of income inequalities and poverty are big problems. This study explains the mechanism of how effective financial development can be used to reduce income inequalities and to alleviate poverty. It also explains the process of inter-linkages between financial development, human capital, inequality, economic growth and financial instability. The policy makers can also take advantage from the marginal analyses that illustrate the minimum levels of private credit and primary and secondary schooling above which the effects of financial development and human capital become significant in reducing inequalities and poverty.