Undersökningens syfte är att redogöra för hur den svenska aktiemarknaden reagerarvid förändringar av reporäntan under hög- respektive lågkonjunktur. Undersökningen kommer även att granska hur olika företag baserat på företagens omsättning på Stockholmsbörsenreagerar på förändringar av reporäntan.De teorier som används i undersökningen är teori om reporäntan och den effektivamarknadshypotesen. Studien behandlar den kvantitativa metoden med deduktiva inslag. Studien tillämpar även MacKinlays eventstudie metod för finansiering och ekonomi. Undersökningens resultat består av två perioder med 14 observationer av reporäntan under högkonjunktur och 9 observationer under lågkonjunktur.Resultatet påvisade inget samband mellan en höjning av reporänta och sänkning i aktiekursen i enighet med teori. Däremot går resultatet i enighet med teori för en sänkning av reporäntanoch en uppgång i kursen. / The purpose with this study is to disclose how Swedish stock market reacts to changes in discount rate during different cycles of economy. This study will also examine how different industries react on discount rate changes made by the Swedish Central Bank. The theories used in this study are the efficient market hypothesis theory and theory about the federal funds rate. In this study we use a quantitative research method with a deductive strategy. This study also includes MacKinlays event study methodology for finance and economics. The study includes two different time intervals, where one period has 14 observations on fund rate changes during booms and 9 observations during recession. The results for booms didn’t show any correlation between a hike in discount rate and a decline in stock market. Where as in recession period, there was a correlation between a decrease in discount rate and hikes in stock market

The South African white maize market is considered to be significantly more volatile than any other agricultural product traded on the South African Futures Exchange (SAFEX). This accentuates the need to effectively manage price risk, by means of hedging, to ensure a more profitable and sustainable maize production sector (Geyser, 2013:39; Jordaan, Grové, Jooste, A. & Jooste, Z.G., 2007:320). However, hedging at lower price levels might result in significant variation margins or costly buy–outs in order to fulfil the contract obligations. This challenge is addressed in this study by making use of technical analysis, focusing on the development of a practical and applicable composite technical indicator with the purpose of improving the timing of price risk management decisions identified by individual technical indicators. This may ultimately assist a producer in achieving a higher average hedge level compared to popular individual technical indicators. The process of constructing a composite indicator was commenced by examining the prevailing tendency of the market. By making use of the Directional Movement Index (DMI), as identified in the literature study, the market was found to continually shift between trending prices (prices moving either upwards or downwards) and prices trading sideways. Consequently, implementing only a leading (statistically more suitable for trading markets) or lagging (statistically more suitable for trending markets) technical indicator may generate false sell signals, as demonstrated by the application of these technical indicators in the white maize market. This substantiated the motivation for compiling a composite indicator that takes both leading and lagging indicators into account to more accurately identify hedging opportunities. The composite indicator made use of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic oscillator as leading indicators, and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) as lagging indicators. The results validated the applicability of such a composite indicator, as the composite indicator outperformed the individual technical indicators in the white maize market. The composite indicator achieved the highest average hedge level, the lowest average sell signals generated over the entire period, as well as the highest average hedge level as a percentage of the maximum price over the entire period. Hence, the composite indicator recognised hedging opportunities more accurately compared to individual technical indicators, which ultimately led to higher achieved hedging levels. / MCom. (Risk management), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2014

The South African white maize market is considered to be significantly more volatile than any other agricultural product traded on the South African Futures Exchange (SAFEX). This accentuates the need to effectively manage price risk, by means of hedging, to ensure a more profitable and sustainable maize production sector (Geyser, 2013:39; Jordaan, Grové, Jooste, A. & Jooste, Z.G., 2007:320). However, hedging at lower price levels might result in significant variation margins or costly buy–outs in order to fulfil the contract obligations. This challenge is addressed in this study by making use of technical analysis, focusing on the development of a practical and applicable composite technical indicator with the purpose of improving the timing of price risk management decisions identified by individual technical indicators. This may ultimately assist a producer in achieving a higher average hedge level compared to popular individual technical indicators. The process of constructing a composite indicator was commenced by examining the prevailing tendency of the market. By making use of the Directional Movement Index (DMI), as identified in the literature study, the market was found to continually shift between trending prices (prices moving either upwards or downwards) and prices trading sideways. Consequently, implementing only a leading (statistically more suitable for trading markets) or lagging (statistically more suitable for trending markets) technical indicator may generate false sell signals, as demonstrated by the application of these technical indicators in the white maize market. This substantiated the motivation for compiling a composite indicator that takes both leading and lagging indicators into account to more accurately identify hedging opportunities. The composite indicator made use of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic oscillator as leading indicators, and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) as lagging indicators. The results validated the applicability of such a composite indicator, as the composite indicator outperformed the individual technical indicators in the white maize market. The composite indicator achieved the highest average hedge level, the lowest average sell signals generated over the entire period, as well as the highest average hedge level as a percentage of the maximum price over the entire period. Hence, the composite indicator recognised hedging opportunities more accurately compared to individual technical indicators, which ultimately led to higher achieved hedging levels. / MCom. (Risk management), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2014

Corn production is scattered geographically over various continents, but most of it is grown in the United States. As such, the world price of corn futures contracts is largely dominated by North American corn prices as traded on the Chicago Board of Trade. In recent years, this market has been characterised by an increase in price volatility and magnitude of price movement as a result of decreasing stock levels. The development and implementation of an effective and successful derivative price risk management strategy based on the Chicago Board of Trade corn futures contract will therefore be of inestimable value to market stakeholders worldwide. The research focused on the efficient market hypothesis and the possibility of contesting this phenomenon through an application of a derivative price risk management methodology. The methodology is based on a combination of an analysis of market trends and technical oscillators with the objective of generating returns superior to that of a market benchmark. The study found that market participants are currently unable to exploit price movement in a manner which results in returns that contest the notion of efficient markets. The methodology proposed, however, does allow the user to consistently achieve returns superior to that of a predetermined market benchmark. The benchmark price for the purposes of this study was the average price offered by the market over the contract lifetime, and such, the efficient market hypothesis was successfully contested. / Business Management / D. Com. (Business Management)

Die studie ondersoek die inligtingswaarde van dividende as 'n moontlike verldaring van die waargenome aandeleprysreaksie op dividendaankondigings. Twee algemene hipoteses is getoets, naamlik dat 'n betekenisvolle verandering in 'n maatskappy se dividendbeleid inligting oor daardie maatskappy se toekomstige verdienste per aandeel bevat, en tweedens dat hierdie inligting in die reaksie van aandelepryse na die aankondiging van die verandering gereflekteer word. Die belangrikste bevindinge is soos volg: • Die inligting vervat in huidige dividendaankondigings kan nie deur beleggers gebruik word om die volgende jaar se verdienste per aandeel van 'n maatskappy te voorspel nie. Die aandeleprysreaksie op positiewe, negatiewe en neutrale nuus is statisties beduidend, maar vind hoofsaaklik in dieselfde rigting plaas. Beleggers sou dus nie die inligting vervat in dividendaankondigings kan gebruik om bogemiddelde opbrengskoerse te genereer nie. • Die inligtingswaarde van dividende is dus 'n onwaarskynlike verldaring van die invloed van 'n maatskappy se dividendbeleid op die waarde van sy gewone aandele. / This research investigates the information content of dividends as a possible explanation for the observed share price reaction to dividend announcements. Two hypotheses were tested, namely that a significant change in a company's dividend policy contains information on that company's future earnings per share, and secondly, that this information is reflected in the share price reaction after the announcement of the change. The most important findings are as follows: • Investors cannot use the information contained in current dividend announcements to predict a company's earnings per share for the next year. • Share price reactions to positive, negative and neutral news are statistically significant, but will be in the same direction. Hence investors cannot use this information to generate above-normal returns. The information content of dividends is therefore an unlikely explanation of the influence a company's dividend policy has on the value of its ordinary shares. / Business Management / MCom (Sakebestuur)

Title: Credit Rating Impact on Information Environment – A study on the informational impact of credit ratings in financial markets using equity analysts’ performance as proxy. Introduction: The credit rating agencies provide risk assessment for a massive amount of financial assets around the world. These risk assessments are in turn used by numerous different market participants. The general idea behind this industry is that the credit ratings provide additional information or alternatively increase the quality of information in financial markets. Recent studies (most of which is written after the financial crisis of 2008) argue that there are several issues in the rating processes leading to failure to provide accurate ratings. Other studies still claim that credit rating agencies still provide useful information or alternatively increase the quality of information by sorting and ranking public knowledge of assets. We see the need for an investigating study examining the informational benefits of credit rating in the information environment of markets. Research Approach: How does the issuing of credit ratings impact the information environment in financial markets? Purpose: The study aim to contribute to the understanding of the current and historical effects that credit ratings have, and have had, on the information quality of markets and hence the efficiency of markets. Method: Our study takes a deductive research approach where the methodology is one of a quantitative and explanatory character. To analyze the effects on market information we use the BKLS model (Barron, Kim, Lim & Stevens, 1998), which uses equity analysts’ performance as proxy for the information environment. These data are then used in a long-term time-series study looking for long-term changes in analysts’ performance with yearly observations. Furthermore we test the instant market effects on stock prices from the issuing of a credit rating in a secondary short-term time-series study with daily observations. Conclusions: We find that the issuing of a credit rating in fact decreases the amount/quality of information available in financial markets (both public and private information). We contribute these effects to conflicts of interest in the rating processes and agency problems in the relationship between issuer and credit rating agency. Several practical examples of this are found such as ratings shopping, solicitation of ratings issuing, agencies offering consultant services and the lack of regulatory measures taken by regulators such as ESMA and SEC. We propose several ways of developing the research in this field; most importantly we want to see future studies on the differences between solicited/unsolicited issuing of ratings.

過去國內文獻大致指出投資人難以依靠券商的投資建議獲利，此與大部份國外文獻的發現相異。本文參考Barber et al. (2001)，建構一個適用於台灣股票市場的研究方法，再以四因子模型做實證。本文以2007年3月至2015年12月，共48987筆卷商個股報告為研究樣本，來探討券商報告的投資建議能否獲利。本文研究結果發現，台灣的券商報告擁有額外的資訊價值，此與Barber et al. (2001)及其他國外文獻大致相同。 本研究依券商的推薦強度建構四個投資組合。發現推薦程度高的投資組合平均月報酬為正，且高於大盤；而推薦程度低的投資組合平均月報酬顯著低於大盤，且擁有顯著的負超額報酬。本文進一步建構買進賣出策略，即買進推薦股票高的投資組合並賣出推薦程度低的投資組合，發現此策略報酬顯著高於零及大盤，且存在顯著的正超額報酬。另外在台股多頭期間，本研究的實證結果更加顯著，推薦程度高的投資組合平均月報酬增加至顯著高於大盤，且超額報酬顯著為正；推薦程度低的投資組合之大盤調整報酬及負超額報酬的顯著程度提高；而買進賣出策略獲得超額報酬的顯著程度也大幅提高。 / Past Taiwanese literatures generally indicated that it is difficult to obtain profit from Taiwanese stock recommendations of brokerage, which is different from most of foreign literatures. Referring to Barber et al. (2001), we improve and build a research methodology applied to Taiwanese stock market, conducting empirical analysis with four-factor model. From March 2007 to December 2015, we use total 48987 brokers’ stock recommendations as sample to investigate whether inventors could earn profit from the broker recommendations. Our empirical results show that Taiwanese broker reports hold additional information, which is consistent with Barber et al. (2001) and most of foreign literatures. According to the strength of recommendation, we construct four portfolios and find that the return of the most favorable portfolio is higher than market, while the return of the least favorable portfolio is significantly smaller than market and holds significantly negative access return. We further construct a long-short strategy, which buys the most favorable portfolios and shorts the least favorable portfolios. The return of this strategy is significantly higher than market, and excess return is significantly positive. During Taiwanese bull market, the significance of our empirical result improves. The significance level of market-adjusted return and access return for both the most favorable and least favorable portfolio is higher. In addition, the significance level of excess return for long-short strategy also greatly improves.

Bakgrund: Tidigare studier har påvisat möjligheter till riskjusterad överavkastning genom tillämpandet av multiplar i konstruerandet av portföljer med målsättning att fånga mean-reversal effekten. De genomförda studierna har dock inte beaktat teoretiskt bakomliggande fundamentala variabler. Följaktligen är det av intresse att undersöka i vilken utsträckning en portfölj, sammansatt med hjälp av regression på en multipel, kan härleda avvikelser från jämvikt i aktiepriser och därmed generera högre avkastning än berättigat av risknivån på en effektiv marknad. Syfte: Studien ämnar empiriskt undersöka om aktiers framtida avkastning kan relateras till det värde som härleds genom relationen mellan deras fundamentala multiplar och marknadens faktiska multiplar. Genomförande: Studien härleder med hjälp av regressioner på multiplar aktiers jämviktspris och tillämpar avvikelser från dessa vid konstruktion av portföljer. Slutsats: Resultaten visar att en strategi baserade på regressioner av EV/EBITDA-multipeln kan generera en högre avkastning än berättigat av den effektiva marknadshypotesen under perioden 2006-2016. Liknande resultat har påvisats för P/E-multipeln men dessa kan inte statistiskt säkerställas på 95 % signifikansnivå. När det gäller EV/S-multipeln har inga indikationer på riskjusterad överavkastning påvisats. / Background: Previous studies has presented evidence of abnormal stock returns when applying valuemultiple based strategies in assembling portfolios. The previous studies has not consideredthe fundamental theoretical values that determine the value multiple. As a consequence, it isof interest to examine the performance of portfolios assembled with respect to thesefundamental value drivers. With the use of regression analysis, it is of interest to find out ifportfolios can be constructed that outperform the market portfolio in a sense of risk adjustedreturns. Purpose: This study aims to empirically examine if future stock returns can be derived from therelationship between their fundamentally determined multiples and the market multiple. Implementation: With the help of regression analysis of value multiples this study derives their equilibriumprice of stocks and apply deviation from equilibrium in construction of portfolios. Conclusion: The results indicate that a strategy based on regressions of the EV/EBITDA multiple maygenerate superior risk adjusted portfolio returns than suggested by the efficient markethypothesis during the period between 2006-2016. Similar results was found using the P/Emultiple however these results could not be statistically confirmed. Using the EV/S multipleno risk adjusted abnormal returns could be proven.

Few areas of research in the finance literature have received greater attention than the efficient market hypothesis. Much of the research has been directed toward the securities market while very little research has been done in the real estate markets. The existing research on real estate market efficiency has been either descriptive or illustrative with very little empirical testing being performed. The major reason for the lack of empirical testing has been the inability to develop an adequate data base. The results of the empirical work that has been done do not support the widely held belief that real estate markets are inefficient. This study, using the autoregressive-integrative-moving average (ARIMA) time series analysis technique, tests the weak-form efficiency of the Dallas-Fort Worth office properties real estate market. According to the weak-form efficient market hypothesis, all price information should be capitalized into current real estate prices and not provide the basis for earning abnormal returns in trading. Price data formed from office building sales dating from January, 1979 to January, 1985 are used to test the market. The data was gathered from the files of several professional appraisal firms located in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. The transaction information includes (1) transaction price; (2) location of the property; (3) net rentable area; (4) gross income multiplier (GIM); (5) net income multiplier (NIM); and (6) net operating income. The results of the study indicate a lack of significant autocorrelation. This suggests that the Dallas-Fort Worth office properties real estate market is weak-form efficient. As further evidence of weak-form market efficiency, ARIMA models are estimated to predict future sales prices but they are unable to outperform a simple mean series forecast. The results indicate that a change in traditional real estate theory concerning market efficiency may be warranted.

The aim of this thesis is to verify and analyse presumed relations between selected macro-fundamentals, namely USD exchange rate, production index, interbank offered rate, inflation, money supply and two exogenous indices ( Standard & Poor's 500 and EURO STOXX 50), and CEE (Austria, Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary) or SEE (Bulgaria, Croatia, Slovenia, Romania) financial markets over the period from December 1995 to December 2015. In order to test the long-run cointegration relationships between studied markets and the set of macroeconomic variables, the Engle-Granger and Johansen tests are applied. The vector error correction model is used to confirm the long-run equilibrium interlinkages and the results show similar trend tendencies between stock indices and some of the macro-fundamentals in Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania. To verify the short-run causal linkages, the Granger causality test is employed. Based on retrieved findings, the efficiency of studied markets with respect to Efficient Market Theory is reviewed. Our findings reveal several pairwise short-run causal impacts between studied macroeconomic indicators and stock indices. The only indicator which does not impact any stock market is the interbank offered rate. Moreover, according to our results, all CEE&SEE stock...