Mercado Preditivo (MP) é uma ferramenta que utiliza o mecanismo de preço de mercado para agregar informações dispersas em um grande grupo de pessoas, visando à geração de previsões sobre assuntos de interesse. Trata-se de um método de baixo custo, capaz de gerar previsões de forma contínua e que não exige amostras probabilísticas. Há diversas aplicações para esses mercados, sendo que uma das principais é o prognóstico de resultados eleitorais. Este estudo analisou evidências empíricas da eficácia de um Mercado Preditivo no Brasil, criado para fazer previsões sobre os resultados das eleições gerais do ano de 2014, sobre indicadores econômicos e sobre os resultados de jogos do Campeonato Brasileiro de futebol. A pesquisa teve dois grandes objetivos: i) desenvolver e avaliar o desempenho de um MP no contexto brasileiro, comparando suas previsões em relação a métodos alternativos; ii) explicar o que motiva as pessoas a participarem do MP, especialmente quando há pouca ou nenhuma interação entre os participantes e quando as transações são realizadas com uma moeda virtual. O estudo foi viabilizado por meio da criação da Bolsa de Previsões (BPrev), um MP online que funcionou por 61 dias, entre setembro e novembro de 2014, e que esteve aberto à participação de qualquer usuário da Internet no Brasil. Os 147 participantes registrados na BPrev efetuaram um total de 1.612 transações, sendo 760 no tema eleições, 270 em economia e 582 em futebol. Também foram utilizados dois questionários online para coletar dados demográficos e percepções dos usuários. O primeiro foi aplicado aos potenciais participantes antes do lançamento da BPrev (302 respostas válidas) e o segundo foi aplicado apenas aos usuários registrados, após dois meses de experiência de uso da ferramenta (71 respostas válidas). Com relação ao primeiro objetivo, os resultados sugerem que Mercados Preditivos são viáveis no contexto brasileiro. No tema eleições, o erro absoluto médio das previsões do MP na véspera do pleito foi de 3,33 pontos percentuais, enquanto o das pesquisas de opinião foi de 3,31. Considerando todo o período em que o MP esteve em operação, o desempenho dos dois métodos também foi parecido (erro absoluto médio de 4,20 pontos percentuais para o MP e de 4,09 para as pesquisas). Constatou-se também que os preços dos contratos não são um simples reflexo dos resultados das pesquisas, o que indica que o mercado é capaz de agregar informações de diferentes fontes. Há potencial para o uso de MPs em eleições brasileiras, principalmente como complemento às metodologias de previsão mais tradicionais. Todavia, algumas limitações da ferramenta e possíveis restrições legais podem dificultar sua adoção. No tema economia, os erros foram ligeiramente maiores do que os obtidos com métodos alternativos. Logo, um MP aberto ao público geral, como foi o caso da BPrev, mostrou-se mais indicado para previsões eleitorais do que para previsões econômicas. Já no tema futebol, as previsões do MP foram melhores do que o critério do acaso, mas não houve diferença significante em relação a outro método de previsão baseado na análise estatística de dados históricos. No que diz respeito ao segundo objetivo, a análise da participação no MP aponta que motivações intrínsecas são mais importantes para explicar o uso do que motivações extrínsecas. Em ordem decrescente de relevância, os principais fatores que influenciam a adoção inicial da ferramenta são: prazer percebido, aprendizado percebido, utilidade percebida, interesse pelo tema das previsões, facilidade de uso percebida, altruísmo percebido e recompensa percebida. Os indivíduos com melhor desempenho no mercado são mais propensos a continuar participando. Isso sugere que, com o passar do tempo, o nível médio de habilidade dos participantes tende a crescer, tornando as previsões do MP cada vez melhores. Os resultados também indicam que a prática de incluir questões de entretenimento para incentivar a participação em outros temas é pouco eficaz. Diante de todas as conclusões, o MP revelou-se como potencial técnica de previsão em variados campos de investigação. / Prediction Market (PM) is a tool which uses the market price mechanism to aggregate information scattered in a large group of people, aiming at generating predictions about matters of interest. It is a low cost method, able to generate forecasts continuously and it does not require random samples. There are several applications for these markets and one of the main ones is the prognosis of election outcomes. This study analyzed empirical evidences on the effectiveness of Prediction Markets in Brazil, regarding forecasts about the outcomes of the general elections in the year of 2014, about economic indicators and about the results of the Brazilian Championship soccer games. The research had two main purposes: i) to develop and evaluate the performance of PMs in the Brazilian context, comparing their predictions to the alternative methods; ii) to explain what motivates people´s participation in PMs, especially when there is little or no interaction among participants and when the trades are made with a virtual currency (play-money). The study was made feasible by means of the creation of a prediction exchange named Bolsa de Previsões (BPrev), an online marketplace which operated for 61 days, from September to November, 2014, being open to the participation of any Brazilian Internet user. The 147 participants enrolled in BPrev made a total of 1,612 trades, with 760 on the election markets, 270 on economy and 582 on soccer. Two online surveys were also used to collect demographic data and users´ perceptions. The first one was applied to potential participants before BPrev launching (302 valid answers) and the second was applied only to the registered users after two-month experience in tool using (71 valid answers). Regarding the first purpose, the results suggest Prediction Markets to be feasible in the Brazilian context. On the election markets, the mean absolute error of PM predictions on the eve of the elections was of 3.33 percentage points whereas the one of the polls was of 3.31. Considering the whole period in which BPrev was running, the performance of both methods was also similar (PM mean absolute error of 4.20 percentage points and poll´s 4.09). Contract prices were also found as not being a simple reflection of poll results, indicating that the market is capable to aggregate information from different sources. There is scope for the use of PMs in Brazilian elections, mainly as a complement of the most traditional forecasting methodologies. Nevertheless, some tool limitations and legal restrictions may hinder their adoption. On markets about economic indicators, the errors were slightly higher than those obtained by alternative methods. Therefore, a PM open to general public, as in the case of BPrev, showed as being more suitable to electoral predictions than to economic ones. Yet, on soccer markets, PM predictions were better than the criterion of chance although there had not been significant difference in relation to other forecasting method based on the statistical analysis of historical data. As far as the second purpose is concerned, the analysis of people´s participation in PMs points out intrinsic motivations being more important in explaining their use than extrinsic motivations. In relevance descending order, the principal factors that influenced tool´s initial adoption are: perceived enjoyment, perceived learning, perceived usefulness, interest in the theme of predictions, perceived ease of use, perceived altruism and perceived reward. Individuals with better performance in the market are more inclined to continue participating. This suggests that, over time, participants´ average skill level tends to increase, making PM forecasts better and better. Results also indicate that the practice of creating entertainment markets to encourage participation in other subjects is ineffective. Ratifying all the conclusions, PM showed as being a prediction potential technique in a variety of research fields.

Submitted by Simone Maisonave (simonemaisonave@hotmail.com) on 2016-11-30T12:03:40Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Bruno Souza Garcia_Dissertacao.pdf: 1798886 bytes, checksum: 146bb3a31b5258bc40dfc93e35435b7e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-11-30T12:03:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Bruno Souza Garcia_Dissertacao.pdf: 1798886 bytes, checksum: 146bb3a31b5258bc40dfc93e35435b7e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-07-08 / Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul - FAPERGS / Esta dissertação tem como objeto de pesquisa as eleições suplementares ocorridas nos munícipios brasileiros entre os anos de 2013 a 2015. O objetivo geral é analisar se esses pleitos estão relacionados com um determinado perfil socioeconômico dos municípios, e, concomitantemente, como afetam o comportamento do eleitorado e dos partidos dessas localidades. A metodologia utilizada consiste em um trabalho exploratório sobre as eleições suplementares, com a intenção de coletar, organizar e analisar dados sobre esses processos. As fontes pesquisa foram as seguintes: o banco de dados do site da Justiça Eleitoral (especialmente, o do Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) e em outras fontes de informação, como o Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE) e o Atlas Brasil. / This dissertation research subject supplementary elections held in Brazilian municipalities between the years 2013 to 2015. The overall objective is to analyze whether these claims are related to a particular socio-economic profile of the municipalities, and, concomitantly, to affect voter behavior and parties these locations. The methodology consists of an exploratory work on supplementary elections, with the intent to collect, organize and analyze data on these processes. Sources survey were the following: the Electoral Court website database (especially the Supreme Electoral Tribunal, TSE) and other sources of information, such as the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and the Atlas Brazil.

This study aims at describing if discrepancies can be found between the rhetoric in Swedish political parties’ electoral campaigns to the European Parliament elections in 2004 and their representatives’ actual behavior in the European Parliament and to develop plausible explanations to these possible discrepancies. The research method that is being used is content analysis, aiming to answer four research questions regarding the electoral campaigns to the European Parliament elections in 2004 and the behavior by the parties’ representatives during the following term of office. The main findings are that some discrepancies can be found regarding which questions are raised most frequently in the electoral campaigns and in the European Parliament, but that no discrepancies can be found regarding the positions taken in questions in the electoral campaigns and in the European Parliament. The plausible explanations that are presented are that the parties raise certain questions in the campaigns with the purpose of maximizing the number of votes and then raise other questions in the European Parliament, that size of the party group matters and that the individuals representing the parties might effect the coherence between rhetoric and actual behavior.

Within the fields of electoral studies and legislative politics, the interest of this study is the Brazilian electoral system and the unity of the parties it produces. Specifically, I ask how post-electoral intraparty rank affects party unity. I determine post-electoral intraparty rank by comparing deputies’ vote share of the total national vote count. By compiling a database of 48 roll-call votes of 37 Federal Deputies from São Paulo, I compare how often the deputies toe the party line to their vote share. I also test for the geographical concentration of votes in cases where I find it relevant. My hypothesis is that deputies elected with a low vote share will vote according to their party’s recommendation to a larger degree than those deputies with a strong electoral base. I find that, based only on roll-call vote analysis, the complete sample does not demonstrate a strong relationship between voting agreement and vote share (or post-electoral rank). However, by analyzing significant cases individually, I do find a basis for my hypothesis, as well as indicators of theoretical consistency in the sample. The basis is for the most part strengthened when controlling for vote concentration. I conclude that deputies whose largest electoral base is centered in cities seem to be more autonomous in their voting, most likely for ideological reasons rather than reasons motivated by pork-barrel spending.

Elective participation varies considerably among domestic and foreign born young adults. In 2014, there was a difference of 16,1 percentage among domestic and foreign born men in electoral participation and between women there was a difference of 19,3 percentage. In democracies, political equality is important where all citizens have the same political right. The purpose is to answear how political acts are seen among young adults (18-25 years old) domestic and foreign born and if there are similarities and differences and if the political acts are based on their living conditions. This is a qualitative study because I want to get the respondents’ responses at the individual level through interviews. The study showed no difference among domestic or foreign born to political acts based on their living conditions. The reason for that may be the respondents who were foreign born came to Sweden as children and had taken part in society in the same way as a native born.

La tesi analizza il contemporaneo declino elettorale del Partito Laburista israeliano in relazione agli eventi storici, ai cambiamenti sociali e demografici che hanno portato ad un effettivo cambiamento del sistema politico. In particolar modo la ricerca si sofferma sulla lettura dei risultati elettorali, cercando di sottolineare come le dinamiche sopra indicate abbiano influenzato i trend elettorali e l'offerta politica del partito stesso. Fino a giungere agli anni Novanta, passaggio fondamentale in cui cogliere le ragioni per le quali il Partito Laburista sembra tutt'ora non riuscire invertire il trend negativo degli ultimi quindici anni. / This thesis analyzes the contemporary electoral decline of the Israeli Labor Party in relation to historical events, social and demographic changes that have led to an effective change in the Israeli political system. In particular, the research focuses on the electoral results, trying to underline how the dynamics indicated above have influenced the electoral trends and the political offer of the party itself. The Nineties represent a fundamental passage in which it is possibleto understand the reasons why the Labor Party seems unable, still today, to reverse the negative trend of the last fifteen years.

Le comportement électoral dans les communautés mixtes (Résumé)<p><p>Andreea ZAMFIRA<p><p><p>\ / Doctorat en sciences politiques / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

The influence of sociodemographic characteristics on election results in the municipal elections in the Czech Republic in 2014 Abstract This thesis is focus on the sociodemographic structure of the voters and its influence in municipal elections in the Czech Republic in 2014. The main aim of this thesis is to analyze and evaluate electoral behavior of the population in local politics. The aim is also to define which characteristics are the most important for their decision. The thesis is focused on the parties which are the current members of Czech Parliament. Then the parties were divided into three groups of the political spectrum (left, right and center). The thesis will gradually focus on the subdiscipline of electoral geography (its definition and the development), on the municipal elections and on the development of the Parliamentary parties in the three theoretical chapters. The analysis will examine the relationships between sociodemographic characteristics and the election results. The relationships will be examined using the Pearson correlation coefficient and the Multiple Regression. Spatial issue will then explore IDW method. Keywords: electoral geography, election, election results, municipality, age, nationality, level of education, religion, unemployment

For his study, the author determines whether the Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) and the Federal Elections Commission (FEC) are sovereign entities, or if they are pawns of the Democratic and Republican parties (Political Duopoly) aimed to prevent smaller candidates from participating in the CPD’s Presidential Debates. The author’s rationale for his research is based on the fact that, despite a large majority of American voters want to hear other voices in the CPD debates, the CPD has not allowed other voices to participate in the debates since 1992, through use of the CPD’s fifteen-percent support requirement. Every time an entity questions the CPD’s requirements, the FEC dismiss the challenges. This has led to lawsuits against the commissions from Level the Playing Field (LPF) and Gary Johnson. The author completed a literature review and case view analysis related to this matter, introduces the Marketplace of Ideas Theory, and the theory’s fallacies. Results from research indicates that both the CPD and FEC have behaved questionably, keeping the threshold at a level that outside candidates cannot breach, and that the lawsuits against the commissions are valid. In conclusion, the American voters are largely limited to the status quo parties despite increasingly looking for other options. This thesis will elaborate upon the misdeeds of the Political Duopoly have also reduced other freedoms and liberties once protected by the United States Constitution

Magister Legum - LLM / South Africa