Submitted by Simone Maisonave (simonemaisonave@hotmail.com) on 2016-11-30T12:03:40Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Bruno Souza Garcia_Dissertacao.pdf: 1798886 bytes, checksum: 146bb3a31b5258bc40dfc93e35435b7e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-11-30T12:03:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Bruno Souza Garcia_Dissertacao.pdf: 1798886 bytes, checksum: 146bb3a31b5258bc40dfc93e35435b7e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-07-08 / Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul - FAPERGS / Esta dissertação tem como objeto de pesquisa as eleições suplementares ocorridas nos munícipios brasileiros entre os anos de 2013 a 2015. O objetivo geral é analisar se esses pleitos estão relacionados com um determinado perfil socioeconômico dos municípios, e, concomitantemente, como afetam o comportamento do eleitorado e dos partidos dessas localidades. A metodologia utilizada consiste em um trabalho exploratório sobre as eleições suplementares, com a intenção de coletar, organizar e analisar dados sobre esses processos. As fontes pesquisa foram as seguintes: o banco de dados do site da Justiça Eleitoral (especialmente, o do Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) e em outras fontes de informação, como o Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE) e o Atlas Brasil. / This dissertation research subject supplementary elections held in Brazilian municipalities between the years 2013 to 2015. The overall objective is to analyze whether these claims are related to a particular socio-economic profile of the municipalities, and, concomitantly, to affect voter behavior and parties these locations. The methodology consists of an exploratory work on supplementary elections, with the intent to collect, organize and analyze data on these processes. Sources survey were the following: the Electoral Court website database (especially the Supreme Electoral Tribunal, TSE) and other sources of information, such as the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and the Atlas Brazil.

Este trabalho busca analisar a trajetória do Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) nas eleições para prefeito de São Paulo no período de 1996 a 2012, tendo como foco seu desempenho nos diversos estratos socioeconômicos do eleitorado paulistano. Ao longo das eleições municipais disputadas, o partido cresceu e assumiu a posição de principal protagonista nas disputas, vencendo em 2000 e 2012. Entretanto, a consolidação desse crescimento não se manifestou de maneira uniforme nos diversos estratos socioeconômicos da cidade. A hipótese sugerida é a de que houve mudanças significativas no perfil do eleitorado petista. A partir da análise da literatura sobre o comportamento eleitoral na cidade, procurou-se reconstituir as características iniciais do eleitor do PT, a fim de verificar quais eram seus principais aspectos. Para essa análise, foram utilizados os dados dos surveys eleitorais das eleições paulistanas de 1996 a 2012 e, para verificar a existência de padrões geográficos na votação da agremiação nos distritos da cidade, foi empregada a técnica de análise espacial. Com isso, foi possível observar que: (1) nas primeiras eleições disputadas, o PT apresentava uma base popular, embora de pouca expressão, localizada geograficamente em uma região especifica: os distritos próximos ao ABC paulista; (2) houve mudanças na composição da base eleitoral do PT a partir das eleições de 2000, passando de um partido com um perfil de classe média (de 1985 a 2000) para um partido com apelo mais popular (de 2004 em diante). Se até então o voto petista estava localizado em uma periferia geográfica determinada da cidade, ele passa a acompanhar essa transformação, ganhando expressão na periferia socioeconômica do eleitorado paulistano. / This dissertation aims at analyzing the trajectory of the Workers Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT) in the municipal elections for the post of Mayor of the city of São Paulo over the period comprising the years between 1996 and 2012 and it focuses on the partys performance with regard to the various socio-economic strata in São Paulo citys electoral roll. In the course of the municipal elections held over that period, the party was able to expand to the point of reaching the position of main protagonist in election fights, beating its opponents both in 2000 and 2012. Nevertheless, consolidation of such growth has not taken place in a uniform manner concerning the citys various socioeconomic strata. The hypothesis investigated herein is that there have been significant changes in the profile of PT voters. Departing from careful analysis of the available literature on the citys electoral behavior, one has sought to reconstruct the initial characteristics of PT voters so as to obtain their main features. So as to draw up this analysis, data from electoral survey researches of the São Paulos 1996-2012 municipal elections were closely examined. Additionally, the spatial analysis method was used in order to verify the existence of any geographic patterns related to the voters choice of this political organization in the various districts of the city. As a result, the following elements were found: 1) in the early elections taken, PT showed a popular power base, which, despite being of limited scope, was geographically situated within a specific area, i.e., the districts close to the so-called São Paulos ABC (the neighboring towns of Santo André, São Bernardo and São Caetano); 2) since the elections held in 2000, there have been changes in the make-up of PTs electoral base, seeing that it has moved from a party which had a middle-class profile (between 1985-2000) to one having a wider popular appeal (from 2004 onwards). Up until 2004 PTs winning ballots could be located in and around a certain geographic periphery of the city, but since then they have undergone the transformation described above and thus have gained volume in the socioeconomic periphery of São Paulos electoral body as a whole.

Research on political parties and their organizational stability presents one of the most important research agendas in modern comparative politics. Especially among newly democratized countries of the Central and Eastern Europe, the consolidation of democratic political institutions used to be considered as a key factor for the successful finishing of the whole transitional process. Despite the fact that most of the transitologists optimistically perceived the consolidation of the new democracies as a one-way process, the most of party systems in the eastern countries experienced serious changes and periods of instability within the last ten years. The most notable change was definitely the unexpected electoral success of genuinely new political parties and movements usually led by a political entrepreneur and formed without solid organizational background or solid ties to society. This tendency further turned into a new wave of unpredictability even within the party systems commonly perceived as fully stabilized and consolidated. Based on such new conditions, the contemporary party researchers turn their attention towards possible interpretations of this unprecedented phenomenon. This dissertation contributes to this discussion by the attempt to operationalize and explain the level of...

[pt] Apesar de não ser um fenômeno recente, os protestos políticos tem ocorrido mais frenquentemente em diversas democracias do mundo. Neste contexto, é importante analisar se eles de fato são um instrumento efetivo através do qual os cidadãos podem afetar variáveis políticas e garantir que suas preferências sejam refletidas no âmbito político. Neste trabalho I estudo os efeitos dos protestos que ocorreram no Brasil em junho de 2013, olhando tanto para o comportamento de eleitores e de políticos. Primeiramente, usando dados das eleições a nível municipal, eu mostro que os protestos estão associados com uma diminuição nas taxas de comparecimento e um aumento no percentual de votos de protestos (votos nulos). Além disso, os protestos afetaram a distribuição de votos: há uma correlação negativa entre votos em incumbentes e a incidência de protestos. Com respeito ao efeito nos políticos, eu foco minha análise na Câmara dos Deputados e analiso se os protestos tiveram algum efeito sobre o comportamento ds deputados federais. Usando uma abordagem de diferença-em-diferença não tradicional, eu mostro que os protestos não afetaram todas as dimensões relevantes da performance dos legisladores, como presença em plenário, alocação de emedas parlamentares e elaboração de leis. No entanto, há evidência de efeitos heterogêneos com relação a incentivos à reeleição e posição relativa na coalizão. / [en] Although political protests are not a new political phenomenon, they are happening more frequently in democracies all over the world. In this context, it is important to study whether they are an effective instrument through which citizens can affect political outcomes and ensure that their preferences are reflected in politics. In this work, I analyze the effects of the protests that took place in Brazil in 2013, looking both of voters and politicians behavior. First, using data on elections at the municipal level, I show that the protests are associated with a decrease in turnout rate and an increase in the share of protest votes (the null votes). Moreover, the protests affected the distribution of votes: there is a negative correlation between incumbents vote share and the incidence of protests. With respect to the effects on politicians, I focus my analysis in the Chamber of Deputies of Brazil to I analyze whether the protests had any effects in the legislators behavior. Using a difference-in-difference approach, I show that the protests did not affect all relevant dimensions of the legislators performance, such as presence in plenary sessions, allocation of federal budget amendments and proposal of bills. However, I find evidence of heterogeneous effects regarding reelection incentives and relative position in the coalition.

This thesis examines public opinion towards membership in the EU, before and after the 2008 global economic crisis, in the newest member states to join the institution in 2004 (the Czech Republic, Cyprus, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia) and 2007 (Bulgaria and Romania). Prior to the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1989, socialist economies and communism maintained a citizenry that never experienced unemployment and that did not have a political voice. Because free-market economic policies and democratic values are new to these countries, public opinion regarding membership in a supranational organization that promotes and fosters these ideals is important to study. Data from the Eurobarometer Public Opinion Survey spring waves 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2010, the Inter-Parliamentary Union, the World Bank, and Eurostat are used to measure multiple indicators of support for membership in the EU. Ordered logistic regression and means comparison analyses are employed to measure the effect of national-level economic prospects, economic winner/loser status, political party power, age, national identity, gender, and individual-level political ideology on public opinion toward membership. The results demonstrate that multiple indicators affect attitudes toward membership and that a negative shift in public opinion is apparent following the 2008 global economic crisis. At the individual-level of analysis, economic winner/loser status and national identity are significant in the predicted direction in all five models. Age is a significant indicator of support only in 2008, 2009, and 2010. At the aggregate-level, means comparison analyses and t-test statistics indicate that GDP annual growth rates have a positive effect on attitudes toward membership in the EU. As GDP annual growth increases, approval of membership in the EU increases. Eurozone membership and unemployment rates indicate varied support for membership in the EU, and the results of means comparison analyses of political party power at the national-level are inconclusive and exploratory in nature. With all findings considered, future studies can further examine the implications and long-term effects of global financial crises on public opinion towards membership in various international economic organizations.

L'objectif de cette thèse est la comparaison de deux partis politiques en France et en Grèce,de l'UMP et de la ND, tous les deux membres du PPE au parlement européen. Ils représentent dans les deux cas le centre droit et couvre la période de 2002 à 2009.Elle comprend quatre volets : celui de la création de l'UMP et de la ND ; celui de leur organisation ; leur volet idéologique, et ces deux partis face à des échéances électorales, en insistant à chaque fois sur leurs similitudes et leurs différences.En même temps, par le biais de ces deux partis politiques, elle permet la comparaison de deux régimes politiques : de la Ve République Française et de la IIIe République Hellénique, ainsi que les systèmes des élites en France et en Grèce. / The subject of this thesis is the comparison of two political parties in France and in Greece, the UMP and the ND, from 2002 until 2009, both members of the EEP in the European parliament and representing, in both cases, the centre-right.This comparison of similarities and differences between the UMP and the ND is based on four main issues: their creation, their organization, their ideology as well as some electoral campaigns.In the same time, the study of two political parties allows the comparison of two political regimes: the Fifth French Republic and the Third Hellenic one, as well as the elite systems in France and in Greece.

No description available.

Au cours des 22 dernières années, lorsque les présidents latino-américains au pouvoir ont aspiré à se faire réélire, ils y sont toujours arrivés à moins que leur pays ne connaisse une débâcle économique. Entre 1994 et 2016, dans les 18 démocraties qui composent l’ensemble appelé « Amérique latine », il y a eu 21 tentatives de réélection présidentielle immédiate dont 20 furent couronnées de succès. La seule exception à cette tendance électorale s’est présentée en République Dominicaine en 2004, lorsque le président HIPÓLITO MEJÍA a perdu la réélection car son pays était plongé dans une profonde crise économique. L’interprétation de ces données indique que l’autorisation de la réélection présidentielle consécutive a annulé dans la région la compétitivité électorale, qui est une des conditions fondamentales pour que la démocratie puisse exister. La principale cause de ce phénomène antidémocratique est l’abus du pouvoir présidentiel à des fins électorales, qui fait du chef d’État qui aspire à être réélu un candidat invincible à cause des ressources exorbitantes dont il dispose pour manipuler le résultat des élections. On peut en outre constater une corrélation entre autorisation de la réélection présidentielle immédiate et détérioration progressive de la qualité de la démocratie au cours des deuxièmes et troisièmes mandats du même président, selon le « Electoral Democracy Index ». En définitive, la réélection présidentielle immédiate en Amérique Latine constitue un poison pour la démocratie qu’il convient de proscrire de manière renforcée dans les textes constitutionnels, par le biais de clauses immuables qui puissent garantir l’alternance dans l’exercice du pouvoir présidentiel. / In the last 22 years, whenever Latin American presidents in office sought reelection they always achieved it save in cases of national economic collapse. Between 1994 and 2016, in the 18 democracies that make up the cluster denominated “Latin America”, 21 immediate presidential reelections were attempted out of which 20 resulted in success. The only exception to this electoral pattern took place in Dominican Republic, when in 2004 president HIPÓLITO MEJÍA lost his reelection amidst a profound economic crisis. The interpretation of this data indicates that the exercise of consecutive presidential reelections in the region has ruined electoral competitiveness, which is one of the basic preconditions for the existence of democracy. The chief cause of this antidemocratic phenomenon is the abuse of presidential power for electoral gain, which turns the head of State seeking reelection into an invincible candidate because of the exorbitant amount of resources that he has at his disposal to manipulate electoral results. There is also a correlation between the exercise of immediate presidential reelections and the progressive deterioration of democratic quality during the second and third terms of reelected presidents, as noted by the “Electoral Democracy Index”. In sum, the practice of consecutive presidential reelection in Latin America is a poison for democracy that is advisable to proscribe in a reinforced manner in constitutional texts, by means of eternity clauses that guarantee alternation in the exercise of presidential power.

Submitted by Franciele Moreira (francielemoreyra@gmail.com) on 2018-04-18T17:42:15Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Alessandro Melo da Silva - 2014.pdf: 1438856 bytes, checksum: d223339f5a7659894fef73d78b90fec7 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Luciana Ferreira (lucgeral@gmail.com) on 2018-04-19T12:25:11Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Alessandro Melo da Silva - 2014.pdf: 1438856 bytes, checksum: d223339f5a7659894fef73d78b90fec7 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-04-19T12:25:11Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Alessandro Melo da Silva - 2014.pdf: 1438856 bytes, checksum: d223339f5a7659894fef73d78b90fec7 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-08-22 / This study aims to investigate the relationship between public policy and electoral behavior. Specifically, the policy of tax incentives, which was implemented aggressively in the last twenty years. Our object is the case of the State of Goiás and from the volume of funds invested in the policy in question, we will assess the election results in the 246 municipalities in the State in four electoral cycles. To this end, we use quantitative methods to identify the correlation between the variables related to the policy of fiscal incentives and the election results. Three statistical models were built with the objective of clarifying how this governmental action can influence in electoral behavior. Finally, we present estimates of this impact. The results clearly indicate that the tax incentive policy and the election results in Goiás have high statistical relevance. ln the case studied, the electoral cycles in 2006, 2008 and 201 O, the policy benefits may have been a variable fairly representative. However, further studies should be developed, because the electoral behavior is a complex theme, where numerous variables and various theories are relevant and cannot be ignored. / Esta dissertação tem o objetivo de abordar e investigar a relação entre políticas públicas e comportamento eleitoral. Especificamente, a política de incentivos fiscais que foi implementada de forma agressiva nos últimos vinte anos. Estudaremos o caso do Estado de Goiás e a partir do volume de recursos aplicados na política em questão, iremos avaliar os resultados eleitorais nos 246 municípios do Estado em quatro ciclos eleitorais, 2004, 2006, 2008 e 2010. Para tanto, utilizaremos métodos quantitativos para identificar a correlacão entre as variáveis relacionadas com a política de incentivos fiscais e os resultados eleitorais. Três modelos estatísticos foram construídos com o objetivo de clarear como essa ação governamental pode influenciar no comportamento eleitoral. Por fim, apresentaremos estimativas desse impacto. Os resultados alcançados indicam claramente que a política de incentivo fiscais e os resultados eleitorais em Goiás possuem elevada relevância estatística. Nos ciclos eleitorais analisados a política de benefícios foi uma variável bastante representativa. Contudo, mais estudos devem ser desenvolvidos, pois o comportamento eleitoral é um tema complexo, onde inúmeras variáveis e diversas teorias são relevantes e não podem ser ignoradas.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T19:14:53Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2538.pdf: 3718258 bytes, checksum: 4f8124ece498120473e681a7a6c716e0 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009-04-28 / The objective of this work is to analyze the partisan vote in elections for the Executive in the State of São Paulo, as much with the vote for Governor how much for President. The clipping that was made for this work is the period that understands the elections of 1998, 2002 and 2006, being that the analyzed parties are: PSDB (Brazilian Social democracy Party) and PT (Labor Party). The studied data had been collected in TSE (Electoral Superior Court) e, from them, made crossings between candidate the President for a party and candidate the Governor for the other party and vice versa, in order to observe the coherence of the vote in the parties in distinct disputes. From this maps of the vote in the State was made, having shown where each party gets better resulted and also to verify if in such a way in the dispute for the government of the State how much for the Presidency it has coherence in the partisan vote. / O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar o voto partidário em eleições para o Executivo no Estado de São Paulo, tanto com o voto para Governador quanto para Presidente. O recorte que foi feito para este trabalho é o período que compreende as eleições de 1998, 2002 e 2006, sendo que os partidos analisados são: PSDB (Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira) e PT (Partido dos Trabalhadores). Os dados estudados foram coletados no TSE (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral) e, a partir deles, feitos cruzamentos entre candidato a Presidente por um partido e candidato a Governador pelo outro partido e viceversa, de modo a observar a coerência do voto nos partidos em disputas distintas. A partir disso foi feito um geoprocessamento do voto no Estado, mostrando onde cada partido obtém melhor resultado e também verificar se tanto na disputa para o governo do Estado quanto para a Presidência há coerência no voto partidário.