A quantidade de investimento público em projetos de Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação tem aumentado nos últimos anos no contexto das nações em desenvolvimento. Como resultado, é necessário verificar quais os benefícios que a sociedade está ganhando em troca dos recursos públicos que são investidos neste campo. Esta dissertação apresenta os resultados de uma pesquisa que teve por objetivo propor um método para a identificação de resultados e impactos indiretos de projetos tecnológicos no contexto brasileiro através da abordagem da Design Science Research. A primeira etapa do estudo contemplou uma revisão sistemática de literatura com o objetivo de identificar quais são os métodos existentes de avaliação ex-post de projetos que buscam identificar resultados e impactos indiretos. A partir das lacunas e oportunidades de pesquisa encontrada na literatura, a segunda etapa propõe um novo método para identificação dos resultados e impactos indiretos gerados por projetos tecnológicos. Ainda nesta segunda etapa, o método proposto é aplicado em dois projetos distintos para avaliação. Como resultados, destacam-se a identificação das lacunas de abordagem dos métodos existentes e o método proposto como forma de suprir algumas destas lacunas. Os resultados da aplicação do método proposto indicaram que o mesmo supre as lacunas de abordagem existentes nas metodologias ex-post identificadas. Um dos diferenciais do método proposto em relação aos existentes é contemplar uma compreensiva relação de tipos de impactos indiretos de projetos. A principal contribuição acadêmica e empírica do método é que pode ser aplicado em projetos tecnológicos de diversas áreas além de ser de simples aplicação. / The amount of public investment in Science, Technology and Innovation projects has increased in recent years in the context of developing nations. As a result, it is necessary to check what benefits society is gaining in exchange for the public resources that are invested in this area. This thesis presents the results of a research wich objective is propose a method for the identification of indirect results and impacts of technological projects in the Brazilian context through the approach of Design Science Research. The first stage of the study contemplated a systematic review of the literature in order to identify the existing methods of ex-post evaluation of projects to identify indirect results and impacts. From the gaps and research opportunities found in the literature, the second step proposes a new method to identify the indirect results and impacts generated by technological projects. Still in this second stage, the proposed method is applied in two distinct projects for evaluation. The results of the application of the proposed method indicated that it fills the gaps of approach existing in the ex-post methodologies identified. One of the differentials of the proposed method in relation to the existing ones is to contemplate a comprehensive relation of types of indirect impacts of projects. The main academic and empirical contribution of the method is that it can be applied in technological projects in several areas besides being simple to apply.

A quantidade de investimento público em projetos de Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação tem aumentado nos últimos anos no contexto das nações em desenvolvimento. Como resultado, é necessário verificar quais os benefícios que a sociedade está ganhando em troca dos recursos públicos que são investidos neste campo. Esta dissertação apresenta os resultados de uma pesquisa que teve por objetivo propor um método para a identificação de resultados e impactos indiretos de projetos tecnológicos no contexto brasileiro através da abordagem da Design Science Research. A primeira etapa do estudo contemplou uma revisão sistemática de literatura com o objetivo de identificar quais são os métodos existentes de avaliação ex-post de projetos que buscam identificar resultados e impactos indiretos. A partir das lacunas e oportunidades de pesquisa encontrada na literatura, a segunda etapa propõe um novo método para identificação dos resultados e impactos indiretos gerados por projetos tecnológicos. Ainda nesta segunda etapa, o método proposto é aplicado em dois projetos distintos para avaliação. Como resultados, destacam-se a identificação das lacunas de abordagem dos métodos existentes e o método proposto como forma de suprir algumas destas lacunas. Os resultados da aplicação do método proposto indicaram que o mesmo supre as lacunas de abordagem existentes nas metodologias ex-post identificadas. Um dos diferenciais do método proposto em relação aos existentes é contemplar uma compreensiva relação de tipos de impactos indiretos de projetos. A principal contribuição acadêmica e empírica do método é que pode ser aplicado em projetos tecnológicos de diversas áreas além de ser de simples aplicação. / The amount of public investment in Science, Technology and Innovation projects has increased in recent years in the context of developing nations. As a result, it is necessary to check what benefits society is gaining in exchange for the public resources that are invested in this area. This thesis presents the results of a research wich objective is propose a method for the identification of indirect results and impacts of technological projects in the Brazilian context through the approach of Design Science Research. The first stage of the study contemplated a systematic review of the literature in order to identify the existing methods of ex-post evaluation of projects to identify indirect results and impacts. From the gaps and research opportunities found in the literature, the second step proposes a new method to identify the indirect results and impacts generated by technological projects. Still in this second stage, the proposed method is applied in two distinct projects for evaluation. The results of the application of the proposed method indicated that it fills the gaps of approach existing in the ex-post methodologies identified. One of the differentials of the proposed method in relation to the existing ones is to contemplate a comprehensive relation of types of indirect impacts of projects. The main academic and empirical contribution of the method is that it can be applied in technological projects in several areas besides being simple to apply.

A quantidade de investimento público em projetos de Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação tem aumentado nos últimos anos no contexto das nações em desenvolvimento. Como resultado, é necessário verificar quais os benefícios que a sociedade está ganhando em troca dos recursos públicos que são investidos neste campo. Esta dissertação apresenta os resultados de uma pesquisa que teve por objetivo propor um método para a identificação de resultados e impactos indiretos de projetos tecnológicos no contexto brasileiro através da abordagem da Design Science Research. A primeira etapa do estudo contemplou uma revisão sistemática de literatura com o objetivo de identificar quais são os métodos existentes de avaliação ex-post de projetos que buscam identificar resultados e impactos indiretos. A partir das lacunas e oportunidades de pesquisa encontrada na literatura, a segunda etapa propõe um novo método para identificação dos resultados e impactos indiretos gerados por projetos tecnológicos. Ainda nesta segunda etapa, o método proposto é aplicado em dois projetos distintos para avaliação. Como resultados, destacam-se a identificação das lacunas de abordagem dos métodos existentes e o método proposto como forma de suprir algumas destas lacunas. Os resultados da aplicação do método proposto indicaram que o mesmo supre as lacunas de abordagem existentes nas metodologias ex-post identificadas. Um dos diferenciais do método proposto em relação aos existentes é contemplar uma compreensiva relação de tipos de impactos indiretos de projetos. A principal contribuição acadêmica e empírica do método é que pode ser aplicado em projetos tecnológicos de diversas áreas além de ser de simples aplicação. / The amount of public investment in Science, Technology and Innovation projects has increased in recent years in the context of developing nations. As a result, it is necessary to check what benefits society is gaining in exchange for the public resources that are invested in this area. This thesis presents the results of a research wich objective is propose a method for the identification of indirect results and impacts of technological projects in the Brazilian context through the approach of Design Science Research. The first stage of the study contemplated a systematic review of the literature in order to identify the existing methods of ex-post evaluation of projects to identify indirect results and impacts. From the gaps and research opportunities found in the literature, the second step proposes a new method to identify the indirect results and impacts generated by technological projects. Still in this second stage, the proposed method is applied in two distinct projects for evaluation. The results of the application of the proposed method indicated that it fills the gaps of approach existing in the ex-post methodologies identified. One of the differentials of the proposed method in relation to the existing ones is to contemplate a comprehensive relation of types of indirect impacts of projects. The main academic and empirical contribution of the method is that it can be applied in technological projects in several areas besides being simple to apply.

This paper presents empirical evidence about the ability of event studies to capture mergers' ex-post profitability as measured by accounting data. We use a sample of large horizontal concentrations during the period 1990-2002 involving 482 firms either as merging firms or competitors, and contrast a measure of the mergers' profitability based on stock market event studies with one based on balance sheet profit data. We show that using a long window around the announcement date (25 or 50 days before the event) increases the ability to capture the ex-post merger effect: the pairwise correlation coefficient is positive and highly significant.

Cette thèse est une évaluation des deux premières phases du Système Communautaire d’Echange de Quotas d’Emission (SCEQE). Il s'articule autour de la construction progressive d'un modèle de simulation, ZEPHYR-Flex, qui vise à reproduire les évolutions du prix et des émissions observés entre 2005 et 2012, et à les projeter jusqu'en 2020 sous différentes séries d'hypothèses. L'analyse ex post des huit premières années du système révèle que, pour comprendre son évolution, il est nécessaire d'étudier en détail le rôle joué par trois mécanismes de flexibilité: les échanges de quotas, la flexibilité spatiale (crédits carbone), et la flexibilité temporelle (banking/borrowing). Dans un premier temps, nous construisons un cadre technico-économique servant de base au mécanisme simulant les échanges de quotas dans le modèle. Le rôle des crédits carbone est ensuite examiné et un scénario pour leur utilisation jusqu'en 2020 est calculé sur cette base. Ensuite, la flexibilité temporelle est introduite dans le modèle qui, une fois les trois mécanismes de flexibilité réunis, peut reproduire la trajectoire passée du prix et des émissions. Le modèle et les leçons tirées des deux premières phases sont ensuite utilisés dans différents scénarios prospectifs à l'horizon 2020. Parmi les scénarios testés, seul un renforcement du plafond d’émission en ligne avec l'objectif européen de 2050 est en mesure de restaurer la confiance et les anticipations associées au système, deux facteurs qui conditionnent l'efficacité du SCEQE à long terme. La nécessité d’articuler correctement le SCEQE avec les autres politiques climat-énergie est également soulignée / This thesis is an evaluation of the first two phases of the EU ETS. It is articulated around the progressive construction of a simulation model, ZEPHYR-Flex, which aims at being able to replicate the observed price and emissions trajectories between 2005 and 2012, and to project them until 2020 under different sets of assumptions. The ex post analysis of the first eight years of the system reveals that to understand its development, it is necessary to study in details the role played by three flexibility mechanisms: trading, spatial flexibility (offsets), and time flexibility (banking/borrowing). In a first stage, we build a technical-economic framework for the core trading mechanism of the model. The role of offsets is then scrutinized and a scenario for their use up to 2020 is calculated on this basis. Next, the time flexibility and the related banking and borrowing behavior are introduced into the model which can then replicate the past price and emission trajectory. The model and the lessons from the first two phases are then used in different prospective scenarios to 2020. Among the scenarios tested, only a strengthening of the cap in line with the 2050 European reduction target is able to restore confidence and anticipations, two factors needed for the efficiency of the EU ETS in the long term. The issue of correctly articulating the EU ETS with other climate-energy policies is also underlined

Submitted by Tatiana Lima (tatianasl@ufba.br) on 2015-10-19T21:26:08Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Souza, Danillo Teixeira.pdf: 2113134 bytes, checksum: 131158397c3a594f5836171e36fedab0 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Tatiana Lima (tatianasl@ufba.br) on 2015-10-19T21:27:48Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Souza, Danillo Teixeira.pdf: 2113134 bytes, checksum: 131158397c3a594f5836171e36fedab0 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-10-19T21:27:48Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Souza, Danillo Teixeira.pdf: 2113134 bytes, checksum: 131158397c3a594f5836171e36fedab0 (MD5) / Esta pesquisa tem como tema a avaliação ex post (ou pós-implementação) do Projeto Novo Siafi com base na satisfação dos usuários finais do sistema de informação desenvolvido por este projeto – o Novo Siafi, como vem sendo chamado –, buscando inserir tal avaliação no âmbito dos processos de Gerenciamento de Stakeholders (ou Gerenciamento das Partes Interessadas), matéria estabelecida pela quinta edição do guia Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK), publicada em 2013, como uma das áreas de conhecimento de Gerenciamento de Projetos (GP). O GP, embora não se restrinja à Tecnologia da Informação (TI), é uma das áreas de atuação mais importantes da governança deste setor e, dentro do campo de conhecimentos associados à área, o Gerenciamento de Stakeholders tem sido considerado, atualmente, como uma das suas atividades mais importantes. O Projeto Novo Siafi, gerenciado pela Secretaria do Tesouro Nacional (STN) mediante contratação da empresa pública Serviço Federal de Processamento de Dados (Serpro), visa a reconstrução de maneira gradual, em uma nova plataforma tecnológica, do Siafi Operacional – sistema estruturante desenvolvido pelo Governo Federal brasileiro, implantado em 1987, e que já fora adotado, inclusive, por outros países do mundo. Para empreender a avaliação ex post aqui pretendida, realizou-se uma pesquisa de levantamento ou survey dividida em duas etapas: a primeira para avaliar a satisfação dos usuários finais – com a aplicação de um instrumento disponível na literatura – e a segunda, como etapa complementar, com o intuito de verificar a percepção dos usuários finais quanto ao seu envolvimento no desenvolvimento do novo sistema. Os resultados permitiram concluir que, de maneira geral, os usuários, em relação ao sistema, se sentem indiferentes – considerando as duas metodologias adotadas para cálculo da satisfação: análise fatorial e média das respostas –, além de perceberem que não foram envolvidos no seu processo de desenvolvimento. No entanto, como constatado junto a gestor da STN que participou da pesquisa, houve, de fato, o envolvimento dos usuários na construção do Novo Siafi, que ocorreu diretamente, na fase de homologação do sistema e indiretamente, por meio das pesquisas de satisfação sobre o Siafi Operacional, que foram realizadas no período de 1993 a 2009, gerando, como consequência, a implementação de diversas melhorias naquele sistema, que vieram a ser utilizadas para a construção da nova plataforma tecnológica. A presente pesquisa apontou ainda pontos positivos e negativos na visão dos usuários do sistema, evidenciando oportunidades de melhoria. Assim, conclui-se que o feedback dos usuários, que nessa pesquisa fora colhido com auxílio dos dois questionários aplicados, pode ser adotado na efetivação dos processos de Gerenciamento de Stakeholders do Projeto Novo Siafi, por meio do diálogo contínuo entre as partes interessadas, de modo a contribuir para a melhoria do projeto. / This research has as subject the ex post (or post-implementation) evaluation of the Novo Siafi Project based on the satisfaction of end users of the information system developed by this project – the Novo Siafi, as it is currently named – seeking to insert this assessment in the scope of the processes related to Project Stakeholder Management, a field established by the fifth edition of the Project Management Body of Knowledge Guide (PMBOK), published in 2013, as one of the knowledge areas of Project Management (PM). PM, although not restricted to Information Technology (IT), is one of the most important areas of governance in this sector and, within the field of knowledge associated with the area, Project Stakeholder Management has been considered, nowadays, as one of its most important activities. The Novo Siafi Project, managed by Secretaria do Tesouro Nacional (STN) through the hiring of the public company Serviço Federal de Processamento de Dados (Serpro), aims to rebuild gradually, in a new technology platform, the Siafi Operacional – a structuring system developed by Brazilian Federal Government, implanted in 1987, and that has already been adopted by other countries. To undertake the ex post evaluation here intended, a divided survey was conducted in two stages: the first to assess the satisfaction of end users – through the application of an instrument available in the literature – and the second, as a stage further, in order to verify the perception of end users and their involvement in the development of the new system. The results showed that, in general, users feel indifferent with regard the system – considering the results of the both methodologies adopted to calculate the average satisfaction level: the factor analysis and the average responses – as well as they realize that they were not involved in the system development process. However, as answered by a STN manager who participate in this research, there was, in fact, the users involvement in Novo Siafi development, which occurred directly in the system homologation phase, and indirectly, through satisfaction surveys about Siafi Operacional, which were carried out in the 1993-2009 period, bringing, as a result, the implementation of several improvements in this system, which were used for the construction of the new technological platform. This research also pointed out strengths and weaknesses of the system in the view of its users, showing improvement opportunities. Thus, one can conclude that the feedback from users, which in this study was collected with the help of both applied questionnaires, can be adopted in the execution of the Project Stakeholder Management processes of the Novo Siafi Project, through continuous dialogue between stakeholders, in order to contribute to promote improvements in the project.

Cette thèse de doctorat s’intéresse à deux thèmes distincts : la prise de décision en situation de risque et l’efficacité économique. Ces deux questions sont traitées dans un cadre empirique en utilisant des bases de données uniques. Le premier chapitre teste les modèles théoriques de décision en situation de risque sur des données réelles de paris hippiques pour identifier la théorie qui permet la meilleure description des choix des individus. Ce chapitre montre que les théories comportementales de la décision en situation de risque (théorie des perspectives cumulées et modèle de l’utilité dépendante du rang) sont mieux adaptées pour expliquer le comportement des parieurs observé dans les données que la théorie de l’utilité espérée. Le second chapitre estime l’effet d’une concentration entre deux grandes entreprises du secteur des transports urbains en France sur leurs coûts. Les résultats obtenus mettent en évidence que la fusion n’a pas entraîné de gains d’efficacité pour les parties à la fusion. Ce résultat s’explique notamment par le contexte dans lequel la fusion a été menée, en particulier les raisons du choix de la cible, la perception des clients et des employés de la fusion, les différences de culture entre les entreprises et la préparation opérationnelle de l’opération. Le troisième chapitre examine l’impact d’une plus grande discrétion dans les procédures d’appels d’offres sur la sélection des opérateurs, en particulier leur productivité. Le résultat principal est que la procédure qui accroît potentiellement le pouvoir discrétionnaire des acheteurs publics conduit à la sélection d’entreprises moins efficaces qu’une procédure n’impliquant pas ou peu de discrétion. Nos analyses complémentaires suggèrent que le résultat s’explique par l’effet d’une plus grande discrétion à l’étape de sélection des entreprises. / This doctoral thesis focuses on two distinct themes: decision-making in situations of risk and economic efficiency. These two questions are treated in an empirical framework using unique databases. The first chapter tests the theoretical models of decision under risk on bets on horseraces to identify the theory that allows the best description of individuals’ choices. This chapter shows that behavioral theories of decision under risk (cumulative prospect theory and rank-dependent utility) are better suited to explain the behavior of bettors observed in the data than the expected utility theory. The second chapter estimates the effect of a merger between two large companies in the urban transport sector in France on their costs. The results show that the merger did not result in efficiency gains for the merging parties. This result can be understood in light of the context in which the merger was conducted, in particular the reasons for the choice of the target, the perception of customers and employees of the merger, the differences in culture between the companies and the operational preparation of the merger. The third chapter examines the impact of greater discretion in tendering procedures on the selection of operators, particularly their productivity. The main result is that the procedure that potentially increases the discretion of public purchasers leads to the selection of less efficient companies than a procedure involving little or no discretion. Further analyzes suggest that the result is due to the effect of greater discretion at the screening stage.

Since its implementation in 2002, the Better Regulation agenda for improved policy-making aimed at closing the gap in the policy cycle in the European Union. The gap in the policy cycle is said to be due to a lack of compliance with evaluations of existing regulations through ex-post evaluations before starting new policy processes with impact assessments. With a point of departure in the effect of the external shock from Covid-19 on the EU policy process, the thesis analyzes if and how the usage of ex-post evaluation in impact assessments has differed before and during Covid-19. This comparative case study focuses on the qualitative use of ex-post evaluations in impact assessments during crises, the study contributes with a new crisis-oriented focus on the research on Better Regulation as well as new data on the cyclical policy process in the EU. The analysis tests two explanatory theories for non-compliance by linking ex-post evaluations with impact assessments under Better Regulation. The theory of regulatory reactivity can explain non-compliance tied to the external shock of Covid-19 and the inherent variation in DG capacity to produce cyclical and evidence-based impact assessments in line with the Better Regulation guidelines can explain if the non-compliance is systematic. The results contradict the somewhat pessimistic picture from previous research and the theoretical expectations of compliance with Better Regulation. A stronger compliance over time with Better Regulation was found which was not visibly impacted by the external shock from Covid-19 nor connected to the variation in DG capacity.

I dagens stadsplanerings saknas det allmänt erkännande metoder för hur utvärdering av social hållbarhet i planering ska gå till. Forskning inom planering belyser att det även finns en brist på utvärdering efter genomförandeskedet i stadsplaneringen. Det finns även en insikt inom forskningen att resultat av planer kan få oväntade effekter, denna insikt har ökat efter att de sociala aspekterna integrerats mer i planeringen. En positiv aspekt av utvärdering i efterhand är att den ger nytta i form av ett lärande, planeringsteorin har visat ett behov av effektanalys för att förklara resultat. Vidare lever vi i en komplex föränderlig värld som således påverkar stadbyggnadsprocessen, det finns en komplexitet som kommer av projektets omfattning över tid.  Dessa problemformuleringar ligger till grund för denna studie. Syftet är således att skapa ökad förståelse för hur svenska kommuner arbetar med utvärdering av stadsbyggnadsprojekt i relation till mål kring social hållbarhet. Vidare undersöks även vad som sker efter att en utvärdering ägt rum - det vill säga om det finns ett lärande i samband med utvärdering. Studien åskådliggör hur utvärderingar genomförs genom att exemplifiera fyra kommuner som arbetar med utvärdering i olika omfattning. Kommunernas metoder för att utvärdera framhävas samt deras sätt att arbeta med lärande i organisationen. Studien belyser även sambandet mellan sociala projektspecifika mål i relation till utvärdering. Vidare berörs temat om utmaningar med utvärdering, detta framgår både från kommuner som intervjuats samt via enkät. De vanligaste utmaningarna är främst: vem som bär ansvaret för en utvärdering, att det är svårt att mäta, att kommuner har hög arbetsbelastning, ekonomiska hinder, att politiken ej lagt resurser eller inte visar intresse samt utmaningar med lärandet efter en utvärdering.  Studiens empiriska material grundar sig i en kvalitativ ansats bestående av åtta intervjuer och tolv enkätsvar från svenska kommuner. Samt en intervju med tjänsteperson från Boverket, intervjun med Boverket berör frågor inom samma tema som kommunerna besvarar. Det empiriska materialet kompletterats med relevanta dokument från kommunerna och Boverket vid behov.  I denna studie framgår även förbättringspotential för framtida arbete med utvärdering av social hållbarhet i stadsbyggnadsprojekt. Det första förslaget handlar om att kommuner bör arbeta med tydliga konkreta sociala hållbarhetsmål för att veta vad de ska utvärdera. Det andra förslaget berör en gemensam syn på utvärdering, att den följaktligen inte bör uppfattas som bestraffning. Det tredje temat nämner indikatorer, dessa bör fokusera på den lokala kontexten samt finnas med avsikt att leda till reflektion och förbättring. Den fjärde åtgärden belyser att goda exempel i stadsplaneringen bör framhävas samt att ett strategiskt urval av projekt bör väljas ut vid utvärdering. Slutligen beskrivs lärandet som en gemensam process som bör ske kollektivt istället för endast individuellt. Avslutningsvis redogörs värdet av lärande utvärdering inom projekt samt i relation till framtida projekt. / Modern urban planning lacks generally recognized methods for evaluating the social sustainability of urban development projects. Research has also shown there is also a lack of evaluation after the implementation stage in urban planning. There is an insight within research that the results of plans can have unexpected effects. This insight has increased after the social aspects were integrated more into the planning. Evaluation can be valuable to planners by providing benefits in forms of shared experiences and learning. Planning theory has shown a need for impact analysis to explain unexpected results in planning projects. Furthermore, we live in a complex changing world which thus affects the urban planning process. These processes are usually very long and can affect projects in various unexpected ways. These problems form the basis of this study. The aim of the study is to create an increased understanding of how Swedish municipalities work with evaluation of social sustainability in urban development projects, furthermore, what happens after an evaluation is also examined - that is, whether there are any learning elements in relation to evaluation in practice. The study illustrates how evaluations are carried out with four examples of municipalities that work with evaluation to different extents, the study highlights the municipalities’ evaluation methods, as well as the municipalities’ ways of working with learning in the organization. The study also highlights the connection between evaluation and social project-specific goals. Furthermore, the study emphasizes the challenges municipalities often face with evaluation through a qualitative approach combining interviews and surveys. The most common challenges the study found were: difficulty determining who is responsible for an evaluation, difficulty determining evaluation criteria, high municipal workload, financial cost, lack of resource allocation or political interest, and difficulty communicating knowledge received after an evaluation. The study is based on eight interviews and twelve survey responses from Swedish municipalities, as well as an interview with an person from the Housing Agency Boverket. The interview with Boverket contains the similar questions as those asked to the municipalities. The material has been supplemented with relevant documents from the municipalities and the Swedish Housing Agency where necessary. The study shows potential for improvement in evaluation of social sustainability in urban development projects and provides six proposals for steps municipalities can take to accomplish this. The proposals are: that municipalities should work with clear and concrete social sustainability goals in order to know what to evaluate; that municipalities should create a shift in the mentality towards evaluation away from the common perception of evaluation as a form of punishment; that chosen indicators in a project should focus on the local context and exist with the intention of leading to reflection and improvement; that good examples in urban planning should be highlighted and that a strategic selection of projects should be selected during evaluation; that learning should be emphasized as a joint process which must take place collectively rather than just individually; and that the municipality should emphasize value of learning evaluation within projects and in relation to future projects.

En France, les rénovations énergétiques en résidentiel, et ceci tout particulièrement pour les maisons individuelles, font peu l'objet après réalisation d'une évaluation ex-post permettant de quantifier la performance atteinte.Cette thèse se propose donc d'effectuer une évaluation ex-post de l'efficacité de solutions de rénovation énergétique en résidentiel, à partir de données (environ 100 cas par échantillon étudié) provenant d'enquêtes menées auprès de ménages, propriétaires occupants de maison individuelle, ayant participé à des opérations de maîtrise de la demande en énergie conduites à l'échelle régionale dans le nord-est et le sud-est de la France. Une approche statistique tant descriptive que de modélisation est principalement employée pour aborder ce travail.Le premier volet de l'évaluation ex-post consiste en une quantification des économies unitaires obtenues associée à un calcul d'incertitude. Pour chacune des opérations, la modélisation statistique de la consommation énergétique après travaux permet l'étude de l'influence des actions elles-mêmes mais aussi de certains facteurs tels que le changement de la gestion du chauffage ou l'utilisation après travaux de la climatisation.Le second volet de cette évaluation ex-post a pour but d'identifier les causes des écarts entre les consommations observées et celles simulées par un modèle de calcul ex-ante (dit d'ingénieur). Ainsi, nous étudions l'évolution des écarts des états avant à après travaux. Tout d'abord, une quantification et une modélisation statistique des écarts en situation avant travaux est réalisée. Puis, les écarts en situation après travaux sont à leur tour quantifiés et modélisés statistiquement en intégrant notamment l'erreur commise initialement (avant travaux). Les différences entre économies d'énergie observées et simulées sont également étudiées.Enfin, dans la dernière partie de la thèse, sur la base des sources d'écart identifiées, nous proposons des pistes de perfectionnement du modèle de calcul d'ingénieur utilisé. Plus largement, à partir d'un retour critique quant aux limites des modèles statistiques établis pour étudier les causes des écarts, des pistes sont avancées pour permettre de les améliorer. / In France, ex-post evaluations of energy retrofits in residential buildings, allowing to quantify the performance achieved, are rarely realized, particularly for the dwelling houses.This thesis is an ex-post evaluation of energy efficiency measures for retrofit in residential buildings from surveys data (around 100 cases by studied sample) of households, house owners, that participated in regional energy efficiency operations (northeast and southeast of France). This work is mainly tackled by descriptive statistics and statistical models.The first part of the ex-post evaluation is a quantification of unitary energy savings associated to an uncertainty assessment. For the two operations, a statistical model of energy consumption after retrofitting studies the effect of energy efficiency measures and also the effects of factors as space heating management modification or air conditioning use after refurbishment.The second part of the ex-post evaluation has for aim to identify the sources of gaps between observed consumptions and ones simulated by an ex-ante engineering model. Thus, we study gaps evolution from before retrofitting to after retrofitting situations. In the first time, we realise a quantification and a statistical modelling of gaps before retrofitting. Then, we repeat the method for gaps after retrofitting, in taking into account gap before retrofitting in the statistical model. Deviations between observed energy savings and calculated ones are also studied.In the last part of the thesis, we propose some improvements of the engineering model on the base of the gaps sources identified. From a critical analysis of statistical models realised to study gaps, some propositions are did to improve them.