Bas van Fraassen argues that inference to the best explanation (IBE) is a probabilistically incoherent rule (1989). Anyone following IBE is open to being Dutch booked. According to one of the most interesting and popular responses to van Fraassen’s argument, van Fraassen misrepresents IBE in probabilistic terms. With the proper probabilistic representation, it is claimed, IBE is not inconsistent with Bayesian rationality constraints. Building on the work of IBE’s proponents, I first propose a minimal account of what makes one explanation better than another. I then argue that, even on this minimal account, the alternative probabilistic model of IBE does not work, and hence fails to successfully respond to van Fraassen’s argument.

Denna uppsats har till syfte att studera den debatt som uppstod efter den 9:e december, då en rapport om CIA:s användning av tortyr som del av kriget mot terrorismen släpptes. Detta sker igenom en kritisk diskursanalys av amerikansk media, specifikt med en metod kallad förklarande kritik, med fokus på vad politiker citeras säga och vad opinionsskribenter själva säger gör tortyr rätt eller fel att använda. Igenom analys av sådant material ges här både en inblick i de ställningstaganden som görs i debatten, där censur av rapporten bidrar till att en debatt där båda parter kan göra starka sanningsanspråk om effektivitet och politisering, samt även förklaringar av de pragmatiska och affektiva argument som används i media för att legitimera CIA:s tortyranvändning. / This essay has as its purpose to study the debate that occurred after the 9th of December, when a report about CIA’s use of torture as part of the war against terror was released. This is done through a critical discourse analysis of American media, specifically through a method called explanatory critique, focusing upon what politicians are cited to say, and what various opinion writers say make torture right or wrong to employ. Through analysis of such material, a glimpse is given into the positions that are taken in the debate, where redactions contribute to a debate where both parties can make strong claims of truth about efficacy and politisation, along with explanations of the pragmatic and emotional arguments used in media to legitimize CIA’s use of torture.

Work context has many consequences for the psychological outcomes of employees. These outcomes also have consequences for the employer through possible loss of productivity, impaired health of employees which may be associated with absenteeism and turnover intention, among others. The literature also shows that these outcomes are not always the same even under similar working conditions. Theorising in cognitive psychology indicates that the way in which an individual appraises a situation may be more important to psychological outcomes than the actual presence of a stressor. Recently, personal resources have been hypothesised to influence these individual differences. Few if any studies have explored such personal resources as moderators in the relationship between work context and psychological outcomes, especially in the South African public service context. Thus, the general aim of this study was to determine whether personal resources (emotional intelligence, self-efficacy and explanatory styles) are moderators in the relationship between work context Gob demands and job resources) and psychological outcomes (psychological well-being and work engagement) in a sample of government employees. A cross-sectional survey research design was implemented. Data were collected from 459 participants with the following measuring instruments, the Job-Demands Resources (JD-R) Scale, the Satisfaction with Life Scale (SWLS), the Affectomemter-2 Short-form (AFM.), the Utrecht Work Engagement Scale (UWES) , the Emotional Intelligence Scale (ElS), the General Self-efficacy (GSE) scale, and the Explanatory Style (ES) Questionnaire. A demographic questionnaire was developed by the first author to capture diverse information from the participants relating to gender, turnover intention, post level and so forth. Analyses were conducted mainly in 2 steps. Firstly, multiple regression analyses were used to test the main effects of work context variables on psychological outcomes. Secondly, two-step hierarchical regression analyses were used to test whether personal resources (emotional intelligence, self-efficacy, and explanatory styles) moderated the relationship between work context variables and psychological outcomes. Before testing the moderation, all independent variables and moderator variables (dimensions of personal resources) were centred so as to exclude the possibility of any multicollinearity in the regression equation. The results of the study, reported in three articles/manuscripts, showed significant main effects for work context and the personal resources as predictors of psychological outcomes. In the second place, the results also showed that the personal resources used in this study moderate the relationship between work context and psychological outcomes. In the first article, it was concluded that emotional intelligence is of potential value, especially in the public sector that is focussed on optimal service delivery, and where emotional encounters are stock-in-trade. Emotional intelligence is a valuable personal resource to cultivate for establishing, developing, and maintaining positive outcomes in psychological well-being in the workplace. In the second article, it was concluded that as self-efficacy beliefs facilitate actions and behaviour taken by individuals, it is important that feedback and modelling could play an important role especially in service-oriented work contexts that may need self-regulation of emotions. In the third article, it was concluded that as attributional feedback can induce change in how individuals perceive their success or failure in a task, the role of explanatory styles in psychological outcomes could be cultivated through active feedback given to employees on their performance and possibilities of future growth in the organisation. Overall it was concluded that a lack of job resources in the presence of high job demands will undermine psychological outcomes even in the presence of personal resources. Therefore, the consequences for health impairment and negative outcomes cannot be over-emphasised in a situation where job demands outstrip job resources. Employees in the public service require skills such as social and emotional competency, self-efficacy and optimism as these are important tools in dealing with the public. Employees must have initiative, flexibility, motivation to achieve, empathy, self-esteem and confidence, self-control, and group management among fellow employees and the public that is served by them. Although the limitations for this study are related to the fact that it was a cross-sectional research design and data was collected using self-reports, insights were gained about the role of personal resources in the relationship between work context and psychological outcomes. Based on all three articles, it was recommended that cross lagged panel studies may be useful in further clarifying the role of personal resources in longitudinal studies about the relationship between job resources and psychological outcomes and possible upward spirals arising from facilitating these relationships. Aspects of such studies may also include a qualitative assessment of what participants perceive as job resources and personal resources and these help them to achieve their goals. / Thesis (Ph.D. (Psychology))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2010.

I evaluate the methods of cladistic parsimony and maximum likelihood in phylogenetic systematics by their affinity to Popper‘s degree of corroboration. My work analyzes an important recent exchange between the proponents of the two methods. Until this exchange, only advocates of cladistic parsimony have claimed a basis for their method on epistemological grounds through corroboration. Advocates of maximum likelihood, on the other hand, have based the rational justification for their method largely on statistical grounds. In Part One I outline corroboration in terms of content, severity of test and explanatory power. In Part Two I introduce the two methods. In Part Three I analyze three important debates. The first involves the appropriate probability interpretation for phylogenetics. The second is about severity of test. The third concerns explanatory power. In Part Four I conclude that corroboration can decide none of these debates, and therefore cannot decide the debate between cladistic parsimony and maximum likelihood.

Work context has many consequences for the psychological outcomes of employees. These outcomes also have consequences for the employer through possible loss of productivity, impaired health of employees which may be associated with absenteeism and turnover intention, among others. The literature also shows that these outcomes are not always the same even under similar working conditions. Theorising in cognitive psychology indicates that the way in which an individual appraises a situation may be more important to psychological outcomes than the actual presence of a stressor. Recently, personal resources have been hypothesised to influence these individual differences. Few if any studies have explored such personal resources as moderators in the relationship between work context and psychological outcomes, especially in the South African public service context. Thus, the general aim of this study was to determine whether personal resources (emotional intelligence, self-efficacy and explanatory styles) are moderators in the relationship between work context Gob demands and job resources) and psychological outcomes (psychological well-being and work engagement) in a sample of government employees. A cross-sectional survey research design was implemented. Data were collected from 459 participants with the following measuring instruments, the Job-Demands Resources (JD-R) Scale, the Satisfaction with Life Scale (SWLS), the Affectomemter-2 Short-form (AFM.), the Utrecht Work Engagement Scale (UWES) , the Emotional Intelligence Scale (ElS), the General Self-efficacy (GSE) scale, and the Explanatory Style (ES) Questionnaire. A demographic questionnaire was developed by the first author to capture diverse information from the participants relating to gender, turnover intention, post level and so forth. Analyses were conducted mainly in 2 steps. Firstly, multiple regression analyses were used to test the main effects of work context variables on psychological outcomes. Secondly, two-step hierarchical regression analyses were used to test whether personal resources (emotional intelligence, self-efficacy, and explanatory styles) moderated the relationship between work context variables and psychological outcomes. Before testing the moderation, all independent variables and moderator variables (dimensions of personal resources) were centred so as to exclude the possibility of any multicollinearity in the regression equation. The results of the study, reported in three articles/manuscripts, showed significant main effects for work context and the personal resources as predictors of psychological outcomes. In the second place, the results also showed that the personal resources used in this study moderate the relationship between work context and psychological outcomes. In the first article, it was concluded that emotional intelligence is of potential value, especially in the public sector that is focussed on optimal service delivery, and where emotional encounters are stock-in-trade. Emotional intelligence is a valuable personal resource to cultivate for establishing, developing, and maintaining positive outcomes in psychological well-being in the workplace. In the second article, it was concluded that as self-efficacy beliefs facilitate actions and behaviour taken by individuals, it is important that feedback and modelling could play an important role especially in service-oriented work contexts that may need self-regulation of emotions. In the third article, it was concluded that as attributional feedback can induce change in how individuals perceive their success or failure in a task, the role of explanatory styles in psychological outcomes could be cultivated through active feedback given to employees on their performance and possibilities of future growth in the organisation. Overall it was concluded that a lack of job resources in the presence of high job demands will undermine psychological outcomes even in the presence of personal resources. Therefore, the consequences for health impairment and negative outcomes cannot be over-emphasised in a situation where job demands outstrip job resources. Employees in the public service require skills such as social and emotional competency, self-efficacy and optimism as these are important tools in dealing with the public. Employees must have initiative, flexibility, motivation to achieve, empathy, self-esteem and confidence, self-control, and group management among fellow employees and the public that is served by them. Although the limitations for this study are related to the fact that it was a cross-sectional research design and data was collected using self-reports, insights were gained about the role of personal resources in the relationship between work context and psychological outcomes. Based on all three articles, it was recommended that cross lagged panel studies may be useful in further clarifying the role of personal resources in longitudinal studies about the relationship between job resources and psychological outcomes and possible upward spirals arising from facilitating these relationships. Aspects of such studies may also include a qualitative assessment of what participants perceive as job resources and personal resources and these help them to achieve their goals. / Thesis (Ph.D. (Psychology))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2010.

ITSs (Intelligent Tutoring Systems) provide a way of addressing some of the issues that the more traditional CAI (Computer Aided Instruction) systems do not address - the individual learning needs and individual learning abilities and levels of users - so that the user is in control of their learning experience. An ITS needs to be able to provide an explanation, for a real world situation, that successfully meets the needs of the user. To ensure relevant explanation content requires the ITS be based on sound planning principles and tutoring knowledge as well as knowledge of the domain and the user. To ensure a coherent explanation structure requires that the tutoring knowledge be applied with full recognition of the knowledge of the domain and the user. For a model of the user's knowledge to be effective, the system should be able to use it to enhance the flexibility and responsiveness of explanations generated. A user model should guide the generation of explanations so they are pitched at the correct level of the user's existing knowledge; models should be able to actively support the needs of the user so that the user's efforts in seeking out information are minimised. The aim of this research is to generate effective, flexible and responsive explanations, in educational software systems, through developing better explanation facilities than exist in currently available ITS software. In achieving this aim, I am advancing research into dialogue planning and user modelling. The explanation facilities described meet the requirements of an explanation that is tailored to the user's needs, a sound theory from which particular explanations are constructed, and a user model that can accurately represent the behaviour and beliefs of the user. My research contributions include explicitly and formally representing discourse planning / reasoning, from both the user's view and the tutor's view so that they can be clearly understood and represented in the ITS. More recent planners have adopted approaches that can be characterised as using adaptations of the classical planning approach, with informally specified planning algorithms and planning languages. Without clear, explicit and full descriptions of actions and the planning algorithm we can not be certain of the plans that such planners produce. I adopt a theoretically rigorous approach based on classical planning theory - the actions available to the planner, the planning language and algorithm should be explicitly represented to ensure that plans are complete and consistent. Classical regression planning uses dynamic planning thus enabling the system to be flexible in a variety of situations and providing the responsiveness required for an ITS. I take a theoretically rigorous approach in constructing a well specified model of discourse, building upon existing research in the area. I present a tutoring module that is able to find a way to motivate the user to take a recommended action, by relating the action to the user's goals, and that is able to reason about the text structure to generate an effective explanation - putting together several clauses of text whilst maintaining coherency. As part of developing such constructs for motivating, enabling and recommending, as well as constructs for structuring text, I use a pedagogic model based on the principled approach of (i) advising the user to take an action (ii) motivating the user to want to take the action and (iii) ensuring the user knows how to do the action. I take a clear and realistic approach to user modelling, making explicit models of the user's behaviour and beliefs. I adopt a theoretically rigorous approach, formally distinguishing between the user's reasoning and their actions, so they can be focused on separately. Formally making this distinction, more easily enables models of the user's reasoning to be tailored to the individual user. To enable the tutor to consider the full impact on the user, of the information to be delivered to the user, I use different plan spaces. I explicitly identify the different perspectives of the user and the tutor so that they can be focused on separately to generate an explanation that is tailored to the user. In my approach, reasoning about the user's skills, rules and knowledge is independent from reasoning about those of the tutor.

abstract: The current study employs item difficulty modeling procedures to evaluate the feasibility of potential generative item features for nonword repetition. Specifically, the extent to which the manipulated item features affect the theoretical mechanisms that underlie nonword repetition accuracy was estimated. Generative item features were based on the phonological loop component of Baddelely's model of working memory which addresses phonological short-term memory (Baddeley, 2000, 2003; Baddeley & Hitch, 1974). Using researcher developed software, nonwords were generated to adhere to the phonological constraints of Spanish. Thirty-six nonwords were chosen based on the set item features identified by the proposed cognitive processing model. Using a planned missing data design, two-hundred fifteen Spanish-English bilingual children were administered 24 of the 36 generated nonwords. Multiple regression and explanatory item response modeling techniques (e.g., linear logistic test model, LLTM; Fischer, 1973) were used to estimate the impact of item features on item difficulty. The final LLTM included three item radicals and two item incidentals. Results indicated that the LLTM predicted item difficulties were highly correlated with the Rasch item difficulties (r = .89) and accounted for a substantial amount of the variance in item difficulty (R2 = .79). The findings are discussed in terms of validity evidence in support of using the phonological loop component of Baddeley's model (2000) as a cognitive processing model for nonword repetition items and the feasibility of using the proposed radical structure as an item blueprint for the future generation of nonword repetition items. / Dissertation/Thesis / M.A. Educational Psychology 2011

Ante a demanda do mercado por profissionais com formação integral, transposta por competências abrangentes, também se adicionam ao contexto o alto grau de envolvimento dos estudantes com tecnologias, o papel das instituições de ensino e dos docentes na formação dos indivíduos e as evidências de que o processo de ensino-aprendizagem focado no estudante produz experiência de aprendizagem significativa. Esse cenário enseja identificar quais são as competências necessárias à formação integral. A literatura mostra estruturas que contribuem para o desenvolvimento de competências sem contemplar aquelas da formação integral, por completo, o que ensejou o delineamento do MAI, o qual se funda sobre os princípios do construtivismo e se apropria de modelos, estratégias e tecnologias para ensino-aprendizagem eficaz, com elementos aproveitados de forma sinérgica. O objetivo desta pesquisa foi avaliar um modelo instrucional para a formação integral do indivíduo por meio do ensino de contabilidade. O Modelo concebido foi transposto ao Moodle, em um curso sobre notas explicativas com a finalidade de constatar o alcance da formação integral e, ainda, verificar indícios de sua validade. Sua avaliação se deu por meio de duas edições do curso, nas modalidades semipresencial e online. Os dados foram obtidos por meio de levantamentos e analisados com base em estatística descritiva, testes não paramétricos e análises de conteúdo. Os resultados demonstraram a efetividade do MAI em conduzir ao desenvolvimento de comunicação, pensamento crítico, colaboração e solução de problemas no processo instrucional contábil, ao que se considera formação integral. O MAI acrescenta-se à literatura como alternativa viável ao ensino de contabilidade. Suas contribuições alcançam os estudantes, por proporcionarem experiência de formação integral, bem como os docentes, por migrarem de transmissões de conhecimentos para facilitadores, e as instituições de ensino superior, por demonstrarem como se pode realizar uma formação contextualizada pelo perfil digital dos estudantes e demandas do mercado. Com base nos achados, recomenda-se que disciplinas, cursos de contabilidade e áreas relacionadas sejam planejados, considerando o uso de modelos instrucionais como o MAI. / Given the market demand for fully educated professionals transposed by comprehensive competences, the high degree of student engagement with technology, the role of teaching institutions and teachers in the training of individuals, and the evidence that the process of student-centered teaching-learning produces meaningful learning experience. This scenario identifies the competences required for integral training. The literature shows structures that contribute to the development of competences, without contemplating those of integral formation, in full, which led to the design of the ILM, which is based on the principles of constructivism and appropriates models, strategies and technologies for teaching and learning, with elements used synergistically. The objective of this research was to evaluate an instructional model for the integral training of the individual through the teaching of accounting. The designed Model was transposed to Moodle, in a course on explanatory notes, with the purpose of verifying the scope of the integral formation, and still verify indications of its validity. His evaluation was made through two editions of the course, in the mixed and online modalities. The data were obtained through surveys and analyzed based on descriptive statistics, non-parametric tests and content analyzes. The results demonstrated the effectiveness of the ILM in leading to the development of communication, critical thinking, collaboration and problem solving, in the accounting instructional process, which is considered integral formation. ILM is added to literature as a viable alternative to accounting education. Their contributions reach the students, by providing full training experience, the teachers, by migrating from transmissions of knowledge to facilitators, to higher education institutions, for demonstrating how a contextualized training can be carried out by students\' digital profile and market demands. Based on the findings, it is recommended that disciplines and accounting courses and related areas be planned considering the use of instructional models such as MAI.

Uppsatsen syftar till att förklara de drivkrafter som fanns bakom den intensiva utveck-lingen av svenska flottans ubåtsjaktförmåga under den senare halvan av 1940-talet. Detta sker genom att utvecklingen studeras ur två olika perspektiv med avsikten att finna vilket av dem som har den starkaste förklaringskraften. Perspektivstudien bygger på två statsvetenskapliga modeller vilka har utvecklats av Graham Allison i boken ”Essence of Decision”. Denna studieväg har tidigare använts av andra forskare i liknande syfte med gott resultat. I detta arbete benämns de bägge perspektiven för det ”rationella aktörs-perspektivet” respektive för det ”interna maktkampsperspektivet”. För de respektive perspektiven finns av Allison rekommenderade frågeställningar, dessa är översatta och omformulerade för att passa uppsatsens ämne. Frågeställningarna får också bilda analytiska nät, vilka används för att undersöka empirin och skapa ett underlag där svar på uppsatsens frågeställning återfinns.    Resultatet av arbetet är att det rationella aktörsperspektivet har den starkaste förklarings-kraften och kan i huvudsak stå ensamt för förklaringen bakom drivkrafterna. Det interna maktkampsperspektivet kan inte ensamt stå bakom några drivkrafter, men däremot finns här den igångsättande kraften som leder till att ubåtsjaktförmågeutvecklingen igångsätts. Den bästa förklaringskraften erhålls om de bägge perspektiven tillåts att gemensamt förklara drivkrafterna. Medvetna val och en vilja till att ge Marinen en god förmåga att i såväl fred som i neutralitet och krig, kunna hävda Sveriges territorium är drivkraften bakom ubåtsjaktförmågeutvecklingen. / The aim of this study is to explain the driving forces behind the development of Swedish Anti-Submarine Warfare skills during the late 1940s. The study of the development is conducted using two different perspectives and comparing them to determine which one of them that has the best explanatory power. The approach has been made with two separate scientific explanations from Graham Allison’s book “Essence of Decision”, they are called the “rational actor” and “governmental politics”. Allison has stated a number of questions for each of the two different perspectives. These questions have been translated and adapted to the purpose of this study. The questions have been used to develop two different analytical nets, one for each perspective and these nets have been used to analyse the empirical data and answer the question of the study.   The result of the study is that the perspective of the rational actor has a strong possibility to explain the course of events which led to the development of Swedish ASW-capability. In the perspective of governmental politics the starting factor of the development can be found but it is not enough to explain the development on its own. The two perspectives together give an even stronger explanation of the driving forces behind the development. There are some deliberate choices made by people in charge and a strong will to create a capable Navy which will be able to claim the right of Swedish territorial waters during peace, neutrality and war, which creates the starting factors leading towards the build-up of the modern Swedish ASW-capability.

This diploma thesis deals with credibility models and bankruptcy models as tools for evaluating financial health of company. The aim of this work is an evaluation of credibility models and bankruptcy models. The evaluation is focused on suitability, reliability and predictive ability for use the models in Czech environment. The main body of work constitutes a case study containing an application of eight models on Czech engineering company.The case study is supplemented with professional studies evaluating explanatory power of some models. On the basis of studies' results, the comparison of models was done and were identified their strengths and weaknesses.