Proefschrift--Letteren--Nijmegen, 1990.

Thesis (M.A.)--Ball State University, 2009. / Title from PDF t.p. (viewed on June 07, 2010). Includes bibliographical references (p. 127-134).

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Wisconsin--Madison, 1970. / Typescript. Vita. Description based on print version record. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 220-227).

abstract: At present, the ideological bias in the human enhancement debate holds that opponents to human enhancement are primarily techno-conservatives who, lacking any reasonable, systematic account of why we ought to be so opposed, simply resort to a sort of fear-mongering and anti-meliorism. This dissertation means to counteract said bias by offering just such an account. Offered herein is a heuristic explanation of how, given a thorough understanding of enhancement both as a technology and as an attitude, we can predict a likely future of rampant commodification and dehumanization of man, and a veritable assault on human flourishing. / Dissertation/Thesis / Ph.D. Philosophy 2012

Submitted by Maria Medeiros (maria.dilva1@ufcg.edu.br) on 2018-08-15T13:02:14Z No. of bitstreams: 1 ROBERTA ARAÚJO E SILVA - TESE (PPGMet) 2018.pdf: 3397527 bytes, checksum: d7b0de649c1e410cbeabdeea5fe40e82 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-15T13:02:14Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ROBERTA ARAÚJO E SILVA - TESE (PPGMet) 2018.pdf: 3397527 bytes, checksum: d7b0de649c1e410cbeabdeea5fe40e82 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-01-30 / CNPq / Neste estudo foram avaliadas as condições atuais e os efeitos das mudanças climáticas sobre a produtividade e pegada hídrica da soja cultivada na região de Matopiba. Para simular a produtividade da cultura foi usado o modelo AquaCrop versão 5.0 da FAO, calibrado com dados do ano de 2016 e validado com os de 2014, usando parâmetros de clima, solo, cultura e manejo coletados em duas campanhas experimentais realizadas entre os meses de junho e outubro nos anos de 2014 e 2016 em Palmas, TO. O desempenho do modelo foi avaliado utilizando os indicadores estatísticos: erro de previsão (Ep), coeficiente de determinação (R2), raiz quadrada do erro médio (RMSE), erro médio absoluto (EMA), eficiência de Nash e Sutcliffe (NSE), e o índice de concordância de Willmontt´s (d). A calibração e validação da produtividade da cultura de soja estimada pelo modelo AquaCrop, apresentaram resultados satisfatórios, ilustrando a robustez e a aplicabilidade geral do modelo. O modelo AquaCrop subestima a produtividade de grãos de soja, para condições de estresse hídrico severo durante todo o ciclo de cultivo. Após a calibração e validação, o AquaCrop foi utilizado como ferramenta de simulação de produtividade da cultura da soja para o cenário atual (2016) e de mudanças climáticas a médio (2045/2046; 2055/2056) e longo prazo (2075/2076; 2064/2095), alimentado por dados de dois modelos climáticos (HadGEM2-ES e MIROC5) e considerando as RCP 4.5 e 8.5. Em seguida, calculou-se a pegada hídrica (verde, azul e cinza) de soja atual dos principais municípios produtores, de cada estado que compõem a região do Matopiba. Posteriormente, avaliaram-se os efeitos das possíveis mudanças climáticas sob a produtividade e pegada hídrica da soja, considerando as variações climáticas com foco na temperatura, precipitação e CO2. Os modelos climáticos projetaram aumento da produtividade em ambas as RCP consideradas, porém mais acentuado sob a RCP 8.5, em decorrência do aumento da temperatura e concentração de CO2 e a precipitação, que mesmo sofrendo redução nos totais pluviométricos ao longo do tempo, ainda atendendo a necessidade hídrica da soja. As PHsoja atuais da região do Matopiba, variaram de 2036,60 m³t-1 a 2584,12 m³t-1, valores similares aos encontradas na literatura. Sob cenários de mudanças climáticas, a PHsoja decresce ao longos os anos. A PHsoja futura decresce, especialmente a componente verde, devido ao aumento menos acentuado da evapotranspiração, resultando em maior rendimento final. As PHverde diminuem ao longos dos anos, as PHazul aumenta na mesma proporção e as PHcinza apresentam comportamento praticamente continuo. Os resultados deste estudo podem ser usados para quantificar a produtividade futura da soja, a demanda de água e a sua utilização, bem como obter informações úteis para a gestão dos recursos hídricos na região de estudo. / This study evaluated the current conditions and effects of climate change on the productivity and water footprint of soybean cultivated in Matopiba region. To simulate crop productivity, the FAO AquaCrop version 5.0 model was used, calibrated with data from 2016 and validated with 2014, using climate, soil, crop and management parameters collected in two experimental campaigns conducted between the months of June and October in the years 2014 and 2016 in Palmas, TO. The performance of the model was evaluated using the statistical indicators: prediction error (Ep), coefficient of determination (R2), square root mean error (RMSE), mean absolute error (EMA), Nash efficiency and Sutcliffe (NSE) and Willmontt's agreement index (d). Calibration and validation of soybean crop productivity estimated by the AquaCrop model presented satisfactory results, illustrating the robustness and general applicability of the model. The AquaCrop model underestimates soybean grain yield for severe water stress conditions throughout the growing cycle. After calibration and validation, AquaCrop was used as a simulation tool for soybean crop productivity for the current scenario (2016) and medium-term (2045/2046; 2055/2056) and long-term (2075/2076; 2064/2095), fed by data from two climatic models (HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5) and considering RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. Then, the water footprint (green, blue and gray) of the current soybean of the main producing municipalities of each state that compose the Matopiba region was calculated. Subsequently, the effects of possible climatic changes under soybean productivity and water footprint, considering the climatic variations with focus on temperature, precipitation and CO2, were evaluated. The climatic models projected increase of productivity in both RCP considered, but more accentuated under RCP 8.5, due to the increase in temperature and concentration of CO2 and precipitation, that even undergoing a reduction in rainfall totals over time, still taking into account water requirement of soybeans. The current PHsoja of the Matopiba region, ranged from 2036.60 m³t-1 to 2584.12 m³t-1, values similar to those found in the literature. Under scenarios of climate change, the PHsoja decreases over the years. The future PHsoja decreases, especially the green component, due to the less accentuated increase of the evapotranspiration, resulting in greater final yield. PHverde decreases over the years, PHazul increases in the same proportion and PHcinza show practically continuous behavior. The results of this study can be used to quantify future soybean yield, water demand and utilization, as well as to obtain useful information for the management of water resources in the study region.

We introduce a new methodological framework, called Bewextra, for the creation of the knowledge of needs in organizations. The development of our framework builds on theoretical engagement with literature from several disciplines including visioning and philosophy of needs as well as empirical data from vision development processes we have accompanied. To the best of our knowledge it is the first theoretical work that describes learning from an envisioned future and the generation of need knowledge as an abductive process in a methodologically replicable way. The advantages and practical implications of our method introduced are discussed in detail.

O presente trabalho emprega Redes Bayesianas para a previsão da rentabilidade de empresas. Define-se como rentabilidade superior as empresa que obtiveram retorno para os acionistas classificados acima de 81,5% em relação às demais. Adota-se a metodologia de seleção dos indicadores proposta por Sun e Shenoy (2007), que seleciona as variáveis explicativas segundo suas correlações com a variável classificadora. Obtêm-se, ao final, dois modelos sendo o primeiro com dois estados de classificação de empresas, superior e inferior; o segundo com três estados (superior mediano e inferior). Assim como Sun e Shenoy (2007), tenta-se validar o modelo Bayesiano com a regressão logística. Constata-se que não é possível afirmar que as média das taxas de sucesso dos dois modelos sejam diferentes ao se prever rentabilidade superior, entretanto a regressão tem melhor desempenho ao se prever rentabilidade baixa. A variável mais significativa tanto para o primeiro quanto para o segundo modelos foi a classificação atual da empresa, ou seja, empresas que figuram em um determinado ano no estado de rentabilidade superior são as mais propensas a repetir o resultado do que as demais. Os resultados apontam taxas de acerto que vão de 14,70% em 1999 (ano da crise cambial quando a rentabilidade média das empresas foi de 2,74%) a 52,94% em 1997 (ano cuja rentabilidade média foi de 11,76%) para o primeiro modelo e de 11,76 % (1999) a 56,60 % (2004, rentabilidade média de 10,76%) para o segundo modelo. Apesar dos modelos ainda não conseguirem alcançar uma estabilidade nas previsões os resultados são animadores quando se desenvolve a hipótese de utilidade para um possível investidor e a expectativa de retorno acumulado, ao longo dos dez anos, passa de 70,37%, que é a rentabilidade média acumulada do período, para 357,07% e 410,10 % para o primeiro e o segundo modelo respectivamente. / This work use the knowledge obtained from Bayesian networks studies of bankruptcy prediction and applied it for forecasting companies' profitability. Higher profitability is defined as the company that had returns for shareholders classified over 81.5% compared to the others. Adopting the methodology of selection of the explanatory variables proposed by Sun and SHENOY (2007) based on correlations among them with the classification variable. As a result it is obtained two models, the first one with two classification states for de classification variable, upper and low, and the second one with three states (upper, middle and low). As Sun and SHENOY (2007), the Bayesian model was compared with a logistic regression. It cannot be say that the average success rates of the two models are different for forecasting higher profitability; otherwise, for low profitability forecasts the regression model was superior. The most significant variable for both the first and for the second model was the previous company's return for the shareholders, i.e. companies that are in a given year in the state of upper profitability are more likely to repeat the resulting the next year. The results show success rates ranging from 14.70% in 1999 (year of the currency crisis when the average profitability of the companies was 2.74%) to 52.94% in 1997 (average return rate was 11.76 %) for the first model and from 11.76% (1999) to 56.60% (2004, average return rate was 10.76%) for the second model. Although the models still fail to achieve stability in the estimates the results are encouraging when developing the hypothesis of possible investor profitability when the expectation of return accumulated over the ten years, range from 70.37%, which is the average profitability accumulated in the period to 357.07% and 410.10% respectively for the first and second model.

p. 1-106 / Submitted by Santiago Fabio (fabio.ssantiago@hotmail.com) on 2013-03-05T19:59:09Z No. of bitstreams: 1 dissertacao_jose_augusto_rios_bastos.pdf: 1095317 bytes, checksum: efefcedfbf349cf8a2bb202fe88e6122 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Tatiana Lima(tatianasl@ufba.br) on 2013-03-14T18:36:15Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 dissertacao_jose_augusto_rios_bastos.pdf: 1095317 bytes, checksum: efefcedfbf349cf8a2bb202fe88e6122 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-03-14T18:36:15Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 dissertacao_jose_augusto_rios_bastos.pdf: 1095317 bytes, checksum: efefcedfbf349cf8a2bb202fe88e6122 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2006 / A procura das organizações por modelos de gestão estratégica, durante as últimas décadas, visando um desempenho superior e vivenciando experiências mal sucedidas, tem suscitado questões estratégicas vitais que se encontram em aberto, como a da construção de visão de futuro. Com foco na análise da experiência do Serviço Nacional de Aprendizagem Industrial – Departamento Regional da Bahia – SENAI-BA, na construção de visão de futuro, no período entre 1993 e 2005, esta pesquisa objetiva contribuir com os esforços empreendidos pelas entidades que pretendem chegar a um futuro desejado, e com os estudos acadêmicos sobre o assunto. O SENAI-BA, experimentando de forma empírica e científica idéias propostas pelas escolas do pensamento estratégico, acabou desenvolvendo um importante aprendizado sobre formulação estratégica. Misturando, proposital ou casualmente, idéias e métodos existentes, a entidade buscou encontrar um modelo ideal. Conseguiu, assim, a elaboração do planejamento de futuro, superando dificuldades, cometendo equívocos e amadurecendo no tempo, mostrando capacidade de transformação e de adaptação às mudanças tão presentes hoje em dia. Essa experiência serve como exemplo de que é possível propor novos e desafiadores rumos para organizações sem fins lucrativos, como também de como se utilizar as mais variadas idéias de concepção em planejamento e delas extrair o que é de mais proveitoso e favorável, fazendo da concepção de visão de futuro um sonho que pode se transformar em realidade para as organizações. / Salvador

The study of foresight methodology has traditionally focused on the anticipation and development of future scenarios. It is somewhat surprising that, despite the impact that the advice generated with foresight may have had on Research and Innovation(R&I) policy action, the analysis of the process whereby foresight actually creates policy recommendations has so far been ignored in the literature. This thesis explores this process, trying to identify those elements that have a greater influence in the final advice characteristics. The research draws on the study of two European cases, which are analysed with very different methods. The first case is addressed with critical discourse analysis, which constitutes a methodological innovation in the area of foresight evaluation. The second case is explored through action research, which facilitated an in-depth examination of the foresight process and an exhaustive tracking of the activities that gave rise to the final recommendations. In both cases special attention is paid to the role and utility of future anticipation. The combination of these methods helped in understanding: the effect that repositioning advisors’ mindsets in highly transformed futures has in the volume and originality of the insights generated, the importance of achieving a balanced representation of the R&I actors in the discussion groups, and the relevance that argumentation has in the formation of final advice. Understanding these factors would contribute to improve the quality and consistency of foresight advice discourses, thus augmenting their possibilities for acceptance and implementation by policy makers.

Vers la fin de leurs études de premier cycle, les jeunes sont appelés à se pencher sur eux-mêmes, sur leur identité, afin de se projeter dans leur avenir et de choisir parmi une vaste étendue des possibles, ce qui peut engendrer une prise de risques. La prise de décisions que les individus ont à assumer à ce moment de leur vie les place dans un rapport à l’avenir pouvant également influencer les choix qu’ils font et comment ils se positionnent face à l’institution du travail, cela à partir de leurs expériences antérieures de socialisation. Cela peut avoir des répercussions sur leurs identités professionnelles et, par extension, entrepreneuriales. Avec le symbole de l’entrepreneur porté par les universités – ce qui est particulièrement pertinent à l’aune de certaines compétences léguées par le programme de développement international et mondialisation de premier cycle à l’Université d’Ottawa – ainsi que la marchandisation du soi présente sur le marché du travail, il semble pertinent de poser la question : comment la socialisation à l’école et au travail ainsi que le rapport à l’avenir contribuent-ils ou non à la formation des identités entrepreneuriales de jeunes finissants et de diplômés de premier cycle en développement international et mondialisation à l’Université d’Ottawa? Puis, il semble pertinent de poser la sous-question suivante : comment les groupes d’appartenance et de référence des individus ciblés contribuent-ils ou non à la formation de leurs identités entrepreneuriales ? Neuf finissants et diplômés de premier cycle en développement international et mondialisation ont été rencontrés dans le cadre de cette recherche afin de répondre à ces questions. Une typologie a conséquemment été développée en utilisant une approche méthodologique qualitative. Chez certains étudiants, l’identité entrepreneuriale n’est tout simplement pas nécessaire puisque la conciliation vie-travail est saillante, cela en raison d’un attachement très profond à un groupe d’appartenance non professionnel. D’autres étudiants, particulièrement valorisés à l’école comme à l’université, endossent une identité entrepreneuriale non professionnelle. Ils sont inspirés par divers entrepreneurs et par diverses valeurs entrepreneuriales, mais en marge de leurs ambitions de carrière. D’autres, plus préoccupés par leur avenir en raison de valeurs familiales axées sur la prospérité financière, l’épargne ainsi que le travail acharné, arborent une identité entrepreneuriale mitoyenne, n’osant pas se tremper pleinement dans l’univers entrepreneurial. Cela dit, certains étudiants mettent une identité entrepreneuriale instrumentale de l’avant, laquelle devient pour eux un véritable vecteur social. / Toward the end of their undergraduate studies, young people have to look at themselves, at their identity, to think about their future and to choose from a wide range of possibilities, which can lead to risks. The decision-making that individuals have to make at this point in their lives places them in a reflection about the future. That may also influence the choices they make and how they position themselves against the institution of work based on their previous experiences of socialization. This can have repercussions on their professional identities and, by extension, their entrepreneurial identities. With the entrepreneurial symbol worn by universities – which is particularly relevant with the set of skills left behind by the undergraduate program of International Development and Globalization offered at the University of Ottawa – as well as the commodification of the self in the labor market, it seems pertinent to ask the question: how do socialization at school and work and the relationship with the future influence or not to the formation of entrepreneurial identities of young graduate students in the undergraduate program of International Development and Globalization at the University of Ottawa? Then, it seems pertinent to ask the following sub-question: how do the groups of belonging and reference of the targeted individuals contribute or not to the formation of their entrepreneurial identities? Nine undergraduate students in International Development and Globalization were interviewed as part of this research to answer these questions. A typology was consequently developed using a qualitative methodology. For some students, the entrepreneurial identity is simply not necessary because the balance between life and work is salient, given that there is a deep attachment to a group of non-professional membership. Other students, particularly valued at school and at university, endorse an unprofessional entrepreneurial identity. They are inspired by various entrepreneurs and entrepreneurial values, but on the fringes of their career ambitions. Others, more preoccupied with their future because of family values focused on financial prosperity, savings and hard work, display an intermediate entrepreneurial identity, not daring to be fully involved in the entrepreneurial world. That said, some students put an instrumental entrepreneurial identity forward, which becomes for them a true social vector.