O objetivo dessa tese é realizar uma análise geopolítica das operações militares empreendidas no primeiro mandato do Governo George Walker Bush, posterior aos ataques terroristas do Onze de Setembro em 2001. Entendemos que as estratégias adotadas nestes eventos foram resultantes do documento Orientação de Planejamento de Defesa produzido pelo Pentágono em 1992, logo após o fim da Guerra Fria. A hipótese que procuramos defender é de que as formulações geopolíticas que orientaram a Doutrina Truman durante a Guerra Fria estão presentes neste documento e foram mantidas como guias para planos de ação ao longo de toda a década de 90 e utilizadas como ferramentas analíticas na grande estratégia do Governo George Walker Bush. Para demonstrar esta hipótese realizamos primeiramente o resgate do pensamento geopolítico de Halford J. Mackinder e Nicholas J. Spykman, em seguida fizemos as conexões das idéias estratégicas existentes em vários documentos que estavam vigentes na década de 90; e por fim, verificamos como estas idéias puderam ser implementadas nas Operações Liberdade Infinita, na Guerra do Afeganistão, em 2001; e Operação Iraque Livre, na Guerra do Iraque, em 2003. A metodologia utilizada foi a pesquisa em fontes primárias apoiadas em documentos originais do Governo dos Estados Unidos e na literatura bibliográfica das obras basilares de Halford. J. Mackinder, Nicholas J. Spykman e Zbigniew Brzezinski para uma análise crítica dos modelos teóricos geopolíticos. / The objective of this thesis is to achieve a geopolitical analysis of the military operations undertaken in the first mandate of George Walker Bush government immediately after the terrorist attacks on september 11th, 2001. It is understood that the strategies adopted in those events were a result of the document Defense Planning Guidance by Pentagon in 1992, right after the end of the cold war. The hypothesis we intend to defend is that the geopolitical formulations that orientate the Truman Doctrine. In the period of the cold war are present in this document and were maintained as guides for action plans during all the decade of 90 and used as analytical tools in the great strategy of George Walker Bush government. In order to demonstrate this hypothesis, first of all we performed the redemption of the geopolitical thought of Halford J. Mackinder and Nicholas J. Spykman, followed by connections of the strategical existing ideas in several documents which were in effect in the decade of 90 and we finally verified how those ideas could be implemented in Operation Enduring Freedom in the Afghanistan war in 2001; and Operation Iraq Freedom in the war of Iraq in 2003. The used methodology was a research in primary sources sustained by original documents of The United States of America government and in the bibliografic literature of the basiliary work by Halford J. Mackinder, Nicholas J. Spykman and Zbigniew Brzezinski for a critical analysis of the theoretical geopolitical models.

O objetivo deste trabalho foi analisar a projeção geopolítica do Brasil na América Latina, destacando o espaço e posição do país no quadro geoestratégico mundial e sua relação com a integração regional sul-americana. O tema é importante porque embora existam trabalhos sobre a política externa brasileira em escala regional, o debate teórico sobre a relação entre os conceitos de América do Sul e América Latina ainda são raros. A hipótese que procuramos sustentar é a de que o recorte espacial sul-americano adotado pelo Itamaraty é decorrente do projeto brasileiro de ser uma potência regional com vistas a obter um maior protagonismo nos processos decisórios internacionais. Contudo, somente a América Latina, do ponto de vista geopolítico, conta com excedentes de recursos suficientes para gerar poder em escala mundial. Na história recente do Brasil, a América do Sul passou a ser entendida como um espaço mais operacional, do ponto de vista político-diplomático para levar adiante o projeto de liderança regional. Origina-se na ALCSA, lançado pelo presidente Itamar Franco em 1993, logo após a entrada do México no NAFTA e essa diretriz foi mantida ao longo das próximas décadas como uma das linhas de continuidade da política externa brasileira, especialmente no governo Lula, que a materializou com a criação da UNASUL em 2008. A metodologia utilizada foi uma pesquisa qualitativa com base em fontes primárias apoiadas em documentos do Itamaraty e na literatura bibliográfica das obras basilares de Friedrich Ratzel, Halford J. Mackinder, Mario Travassos e André Martin. Ao final o trabalho contribuiu para a compreensão de que a América Latina é um espaço vital para a projeção mundial do Brasil, sobretudo no contexto do meridionalismo que advoga um sexto player global em torno de um bloco no Hemisfério Sul. Como sugestão de continuidade de pesquisa entendemos que será relevante analisar quais ações da chancelaria brasileira influenciam na formação e no desenvolvimento de um bloco meridional com objetivo de buscar um maior protagonismo internacional do Brasil. As aporias da política externa brasileira sobretudo nos últimos anos estariam, portanto, relacionadas a esta imprecisão geopolítica. / The aim of this work is to analyse Brazilians geopolitical presence in Latin America, highlighting space and position of the country in the global geostrategic board and its relationship with South American regional inclusion. The theme is relevant given that, although works on Brazilian foreign policy on a regional scale exist, the theoretical debate regarding the relationship between the concepts of \"South America\" and \"Latin America\" are still rare. The sought hypothesis is that the South American spatial clipping adopted by Itamaraty is a result of the Brazilian project of becoming a regional power seeking a larger protagonism in international decisive processes. Nevertheless, only Latin America, from the geopolitical perspective, counts on enough resource surpluses to generate global scale power. In Brazilians recent history, South America has begun to be understood as a more operational space, from the political-diplomatic point of view, in order to proceed with the regional leadership project. It was originated in ALCSA, introduced by former president Itamar Franco, in 1993, following Mexicos insertion in NAFTA and this guideline was kept throughout the following decades as one of the continuity lines of Brazilians foreign policy, especially during Lulas presidency, which has materialized it with UNASULs creation, in 2008. The used methodology was a qualitative research based on primary sources backed by Itamaratys documents and bibliographical literature of fundamental works from Friedrich Ratzel, Halford J. Mackinter, Mario Travassos and André Martin. Finally, the work has contributed to the comprehension that Latin America is a vital space for global projection in Brazil, especially in the meridionalism context, which advocates a sixth global player around a Southern Hemisphere block. As a suggestion of continuity of research, we understand that it will be relevant to analyse which actions from Brazilians chancellery have an influence over the formation and development of a southern block aiming to seek a larger international protagonism in Brazil. The difficulty of the Brazilian external policy, especially in the last years, would be, therefore, related to this geopolitical imprecision.

Mihajlo Kopanja Conceptualizing Location - One Term, Many Meanings, a Lot of Problems Master thesis Supervisor: Nuno Morgado, M. Pol. Sc., Ph.D. Abstract Location as a geopolitical concept is one of the most fundamental variables being used in research since the beginning of geopolitics itself. Yet, usages of the concept in geopolitical literature point to different conceptualizations of location which, in turn, provide different explanations of causal properties this concept has on the state's behavior. This logical inconsistency imbedded in the concept of location sets up a fundamental question: what location, as a concept, is and how does it produce causal effect onto a state? Following that another question arises: can this inconsistency be resolved through reconceptualization? By identifying the set of different attributes assigned to the concept of location in existing literature determination of inconsistency has been made and used as a basis for reconceptualization of location. Through the introduction of a model with four secondary concepts using the radial approach to concept formation an attempt has been made to resolve internal inconsistencies of location as a concept and as a variable while increasing its explanatory power in understanding and analyzing its effects on states as shown in the...

The Paris Agreement aims to limit the global temperature to below 2°C above the pre-industrial level. In order to achieve this target, almost 200 countries committed to Nationally Determined Contributions to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. Diverse strategies are applied to achieve the necessary emissions reductions. One such strategy is large-scale renewable energy deployment. Certain key minerals are needed to produce green technologies such as electric vehicles and wind turbines. This thesis is concerned with the minerals cobalt, lithium and rare earths which are key components of lithium-ion batteries and/or permanent magnets used in many green technology applications. The academic community is aware that these critical materials are largely found in fragile and undemocratic states. The question is how the energy transition may be impacted by the fragile state of critical mineral producing countries. Therefore, this thesis aimed to investigate the supply and geopolitical risks on the critical materials market in the short- and medium-term. An analysis of the markets and a projection of their future development were conducted through maximum depletion rate modelling, the calculation Herfindahl-Hirschman indexes and risk-weighting country index scores. The results showed that the mineral markets are projected to remain highly concentrated which points to a continued vulnerability to risks emanating from individual production countries. The study found that the kinds of risk categories impacting a market depend on the distribution of market shares among countries. As production constraints arise in individual countries, the risk portfolio of the market changes. The study also concluded that countries like China that invest in mining projects abroad can contribute to the risks of a mineral that they are not producing themselves.

The subject of discourse in this study is ‘leadership and governance imperatives for development in the Democratic Republic of the Congo’. The qualitative research method was deemed the most suitable in attaining the objectives of the study. The study comprises six chapters. The main objective of the study is to contribute to an understanding of the challenges that constitute a stumbling block for the establishment of a system that promotes good governance and places the DRC on the path to development. Beyond the analysis of challenges, the study also examines the environment in which leaders evolve and it focuses on leadership challenges and governance imperatives that prevail in the current setting of the country. In this context, the study formulates a framework for leadership development. The study aims at proposing a perspective for leadership development considering the fact that the DRC urgently requires leaders who are competent and effective, and who can consider modern principles of management and governance as provided by the case studies of Brazil and Botswana in order to offer the much needed leadership in the nation-building process. Considering the crises the DRC has endured throughout the years, leadership’s role is of great importance as leaders have the ability to transform the adverse circumstances that Congolese people have faced since the inception of independence. The study insists that is possible only if leaders can inspire hope and change the patterns of how things have been done in the country. The DRC needs leaders who are able to help unleash its potential and allow the country to regain and to maximise its strategic position as a significant player in the continental geopolitical affairs. The thesis argues that the success of any leadership mainly depends on the kind of social order that prevails in the DRC and on the type of the political arrangement adopted by its leaders. The main challenge facing the DRC is establishing an effective leadership. The legacy of colonisation coupled with the misrule by Congolese cadres have made it difficult for the DRC to secure a system that promotes good governance and creates conditions for economic development. An effective and purposeful leadership has the ability to provide a clear policy guideline that might bring about change in the functioning of the country’s institutions. In the case of the DRC, an effective leadership will be the one that will create an environment that promotes the reforms much needed in the political and administrative structures of the country and, consequently, enhance conditions for a successful implementation of policies for the betterment of all. This study proposes that Congolese people deserve a civilised nation and a set of capable leaders who can maximise the country’s abundant resources so that citizens can benefit from the country’s wealth. As soon as the DRC finds the path to prosperity and development, it will be possible for the country to also impact positively on its neighbouring countries and the whole continent at large. / Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2012. / gm2013 / School of Public Management and Administration (SPMA) / unrestricted

In an era where digital platforms play a crucial role, companies often encounter challenges associated with the digital geopolitical landscape. This thesis focuses on investigating the impact of digitalization on global companies operating in China, with an emphasis on the risks and challenges emerging from the digital geopolitical landscape. The thesis further aims to provide mitigations to avoid the threats posed to companies. Interviews with experts and stakeholders from FOI, Microsoft, and Atlas Copco were conducted, and additional internal data regarding competence development from Atlas Copco was used to support the results. The research findings highlighted that technology-related threats pose significant risks to distributed companies operating in China. These threats manifest in various forms, such as the constant need to adapt to the evolving Chinese regulatory environment and constraints on technology transfers. In response, several mitigations were identified, including the establishment of a dedicated team responsible for monitoring and complying with Chinese regulations and diversifying the supply chain. The thesis also examined the impact of these threats on the IT competence within Atlas Copco, bringing attention to concerns regarding knowledge gaps in advanced training specifically in China.

Wars are moments of significant rupture for states, societies, and economies. Wars where one state suffers significant territorial losses can be particularly challenging for states, their power structures, and the prevailing visions and identities in their geopolitical cultures. How states react to territorial losses is a compelling area for research. The recent experiences of the Republic of Armenia present a rich case study in how states adjust to territorial change. The collapse of the Soviet Union and the establishment of an independent Armenian state was accompanied by war over a disputed territory with neighbouring Azerbaijan. By the time of the cease-fire of the First Karabakh War in 1994, Armenia held its own territory and strongly supported the Armenian-populated unrecognised Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. "Karabakh is ours", which served as a long-standing slogan of the geopolitical culture of Armenia, was shattered as a result of the Second Karabakh War of 2020, during which Azerbaijani forces gained control over considerable territory. The status quo after the war had notable impact on the province of Siunik in southern Armenia as well. This dissertation is a study in the aftermath of territorial shock, looking to the framework of geopolitical culture and the category of the geo-body to account for the developments in Armenia generally and in Siunik in particular since 2020. Drawing on the literature of critical geopolitics as well as fieldwork conducted in Armenia, the dissertation argues that the shock and trauma of the war has caused deep disruption and fragmentation in the geopolitical culture of Armenia, which remains in crisis. There are disputed and competing territorial visions of the country, some of which are manifested as centre-periphery distinctions between the capital Yerevan and the province of Siunik. The strong local identity of the province serves as a basis to look to ideological tropes of nationalist imaginations as a coping mechanism while facing precarious circumstances. Material geographical realities and discursive or ideological imaginations continue to be in tension in Armenia, especially in Siunik. / Doctor of Philosophy / Wars are moments of significant disruption for states and societies. Wars in which a state suffers significant territorial losses can be particularly challenging for governments and the people, and how they think of themselves. How states react to territorial losses is a compelling area for research. The recent experiences of the Republic of Armenia present a rich case study in how states adjust to territorial change. The collapse of the Soviet Union and the establishment of an independent Armenian state was accompanied by war over a disputed territory with neighbouring Azerbaijan. At the time of the cease-fire of 1994, the Armenian side emerged with consolidated territorial gains. Following years of peace negotiations and some escalations, Azerbaijani forces launched a large-scale offensive in 2020, as a result of which much territory changed hands. The status quo after the war had notable impact on the province of Siunik in southern Armenia as well. This dissertation is a study in the aftermath of territorial changes. It looks to how states and societies think about themselves and their territories. To say that a territory is disputed between two or more parties is a straightforward observation. But it is worth asking more nuanced questions: how is territory framed, how does that framing inform disputes, and how might a better understanding of those framings help resolve them? In the case of Armenia, this dissertation argues that the government and people remain in a state of shock and trauma two years after the end of the war. There is a disconnect between framings, future visions, and prospects as expressed by the central government of Armenia and the experiences and expectations of people on the ground in Siunik. Many studies of conflicts focus on politics, diplomacy, and international affairs. They may bring to the surface humanitarian issues, questions of public international law, art, justice, or history. This dissertation invites the reader to think more about the geography of conflicts, both as a material reality and as an ideological value.

No / This paper examines the effects of geopolitical risks on renewable energy demand in 20 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member countries from 1970 to 2019. The renewable energy demand function includes carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, economic globalisation, natural resources rents, and per capita income as control variables. It is found that geopolitical risks reduce the demand for renewable energy and threaten climate change mitigation policies. Degrading the environment in terms of rising CO2 emissions is detrimental to the renewable energy demand. Natural resource rents also decrease renewable energy consumption. However, higher per capita income and economic globalisation significantly increase renewable energy consumption. These findings bear crucial policy implications for the Russia-Ukraine War era, suggesting that geopolitical risks discourage renewable energy demand. Therefore, policymakers in the OECD countries should focus on geopolitical harmony among economic agents, groups, and regions.

Yes / This paper analyses the impact of geopolitical risk on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions inequality in the panel dataset of 38 developed and developing economies from 1990 to 2019. At this juncture, the empirical models control for the effects of globalisation, capital-labour ratio, and per capita income on CO2 emissions inequality. The panel cointegration tests show a significant long-run relationship among the related variables in the empirical models. The panel data regression estimations indicate that geopolitical risk, capital-labour ratio, and per capita income increase CO2 emissions inequality. However, globalisation negatively affects CO2 emissions inequality in the panel dataset of 38 developed and developing countries. The pairwise panel heterogeneous causality test results align with these benchmark results and indicate no reverse causality issue. Potential policy implications are also discussed. / The authors acknowledge the grant from the Major Project of Philosophy and Social Science Research in Colleges (Grant Number: 2023SJZD027).

This thesis aims to reveal the underlying reason behind the recent Rohingya conflict. This paper argues that, instead of only focusing on the ethnic and religious view of the Rohingya conflict, the geopolitical economic view of the conflict also needs to be addressed sincerely as the conflict has a long history and occurred in different political and economic conditions. From that purpose, this research analyses the recent Rohingya conflict from the perspective of the geopolitical economy of resources. It examines the role and activities of the Government of Myanmar and military force concerning the recent conflict. Besides that, this paper also examines the geopolitical economic interests of China and India in Rakhine state regards to their unwillingness to stop the conflict. In this study, secondary sources such as books, academic articles, reports of government and non-government organisations and the UCDP database have mainly been used for data collection, which is based on textual analysis. This thesis applies the concept of Resource, Resource curse, Resource war and Intrastate conflict along with the analytical framework ‘Vulnerability, risk and opportunity’ by Philippe Le Billon as a tool to explain and analyse the conflict. The research shows that the recent violent conflicts which forcedly displaced hundreds of thousands of the Rohingyas from their houses and destroyed many Rohingya villages in Rakhine state have a possible connection with the resources and economic opportunities that are present in the Rakhine state. There is a strong possibility that the resource and economic opportunities influence the GoM and military force to become involved in this conflict. Also, the resource and economic opportunities might prevent China and India from playing an active role to stop the conflict. The Rohingya crisis has been going on for decades now, yet it has not been solved. Also, there is no sign of solving the crisis soon. The geopolitical economic perspective of the conflict might be the answer to why the Rohingya crisis has not yet been solved.