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Submitted by Felipe Dexheimer (felipe.dex@gmail.com) on 2017-08-30T17:01:27Z No. of bitstreams: 1 DissertacaoEnvio.pdf: 1900582 bytes, checksum: 347a4791d6eeac1e6b4919e40e275ffa (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Joana Martorini (joana.martorini@fgv.br) on 2017-08-30T19:13:58Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 DissertacaoEnvio.pdf: 1900582 bytes, checksum: 347a4791d6eeac1e6b4919e40e275ffa (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-08-31T12:32:24Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DissertacaoEnvio.pdf: 1900582 bytes, checksum: 347a4791d6eeac1e6b4919e40e275ffa (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-08-11 / The objective of this paper is to seek insights into the Great Recession, which started after the Financial Shock of 2008 and still casts a shadow on the growth of Developed Economies. Common features such as near zero interest rates, disappointing growth and low inflation - with a constant fear of deflation - have been observed in most of these countries in the last few years. The Secular Stagnation Hypothesis argues that the causes are a depressed demand, both for investments and finished products and services, and that to avoid a deflation trap governments should step in, helping economies reach their potential again. The Credit Supercycle Hypothesis puts the deleveraging cycle on focus: the large credit expansion that happened prior to the shock must be dealt with, through inflation, growth, restructuring or a combination of those, before economic agents go back to their normal behavior. The analysis of their main differences leads to the investigation of the credit cycle and its impact on productivity growth. Two approaches are used, with the time frame ranging from 1995 to 2014: a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) analysis focused on twenty developed countries and a Real Business Cycle analysis of the American Economy, both replicated from previous studies with similar focus, but different context. The results show the importance of credit formation to the growth of productivity, both directly and through fixed capital investment, and also that the low productivity growth on recent years may be not a symptom of slow technological improvement, but instead caused by the lack of credit access, notwithstanding the low interest rates and credit spreads. Policy makers overlooking this evidence might be surprised by an unforeseen rise in productivity growth after the financial system returns to a more normal behavior. / O objetivo deste artigo é buscar informações sobre a Grande Recessão, que começou após o Choque Financeiro de 2008 e ainda gera uma sombra sobre o crescimento das Economias Desenvolvidas. Características comuns, como taxas de juros próximas de zero, decepções de crescimento e baixa inflação - com um medo constante da deflação - foram observados na maioria desses países nos últimos anos. A Hipótese da Estagnação Secular argumenta que as causas é uma demanda deprimida, tanto para investimentos quanto para produtos e serviços finais, e para evitar uma armadilha de deflação, os governos devem intervir, ajudando as economias a alcançar seu potencial novamente. A Hipótese do Superciclo de Crédito coloca o processo de desalavancagem em foco: a grande expansão de crédito que aconteceu antes do choque deve ser tratada, por meio da inflação, crescimento, reestruturação ou uma combinação desses, antes que os agentes econômicos voltem ao seu comportamento normal. A análise das principais diferenças dessas hipóteses leva à investigação acerca do ciclo do crédito e seu impacto no crescimento da produtividade. São utilizadas duas abordagens, com o intervalo de tempo entre 1995 e 2014: um modelo Vetorial Autoregressivo (VAR) focado em vinte países desenvolvidos e uma análise de Ciclo Real de Negócios (Real Business Cycle) da economia americana, ambas replicadas de estudos anteriores que tinham foco semelhante, mas contexto diferente. Os resultados mostram a importância da formação de crédito para o crescimento da produtividade, tanto diretamente como através do investimento em capital fixo, e também que o baixo crescimento da produtividade nos últimos anos pode não ser um sintoma de melhoria tecnológica lenta, mas sim causado pela falta de acesso a crédito, não obstante as baixas taxas de juros e spreads de crédito. Ao negligenciar essas evidências formadores de políticas econômicas podem se surpreender com um aumento imprevisto do crescimento da produtividade após o sistema financeiro retornar a um comportamento mais normal.

Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI) / This study is an interpretative phenomenological analysis that explored the meanings homeowners associated with their lived experience of foreclosure. In the wake of the 2006 housing crash and 2008 Great Recession, questions have been posed about the continued efficacy of homeownership as an asset-based strategy. In addition, the conversation has been dominated by traditional economic and business interests. Discussions about housing policy and foreclosure response have marginalized the voice of vulnerable populations. The literature on housing policy reflects a positivist perspective that privileges analysis of unit production, economic costs and benefits. Secondary attention is given to exploring housing and foreclosure from a critical and constructivist standpoint. Consequently, this study intentionally engaged people who have experienced foreclosure. Depth and meaning were uncovered through interpretative phenomenological analysis. A purposive sample of five homeowners who experienced foreclosure was identified. The five homeowners participated in semi-structured interview. Transcribed interviews were analyzed using the six-step process articulated for interpretive phenomenological analysis (IPA). IPA combines three philosophical foundations—phenomenology, hermeneutics, and idiography—to approach qualitative and experiential research. The findings of this study discovered that foreclosure represents disconnection for the participants. Specifically, due to experiencing foreclosure, participants felt separated from their self-identity, from housing finance literacy, from their relationship with their mortgage lender and servicers, from the benefits of homeownership and from self-sufficiency due to their social service-based, helping-based, and/or low-wage employment. Study findings both affirm and challenge relevant theoretical frameworks. In addition, this research underscores the need for social work education to address financial literacy. Further, social work practitioners should be prepared to either provide or refer consumers to home-buyer education and training. Social workers should also challenge exploitative consumer practices and offer empowering alternatives in their place. Lastly, this research offers strategies and practices to strengthen housing policy and foreclosure response for the benefit of consumers.

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This thesis analyses whether the concept of monetary sovereignty evolves under the impact of globalization and financial integration, and provides a framework for assessing what this implies. Thereby, this thesis contributes to a better understanding of both the contemporary exercise of sovereign powers in monetary and financial matters and of the driving forces behind the evolution of international law in this field. As elaborated in chapter 1, the contemporary concept of monetary sovereignty proposed by this thesis is not static but dynamic in nature. Due to the dual nature of sovereignty as a concept having not only positive but also important normative components, monetary sovereignty cannot become eroded under the impact of legal and economic constraints. Chapter 2 examines the ongoing hybridization of international monetary law arising from changes in the sources of this complex body of law, from the unsuitability of the categories of ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ law for characterizing all normative evolutions in this field, and from the rise of private and transnational monetary law. Chapter 3 scrutinizes the phenomenon of exchange rate misalignment under monetary and trade law. Intrinsically related, it assesses which aspects of the IMF’s legal framework should be reformed in order to tackle contemporary challenges to the stability of the international monetary system, such as global current account imbalances. Chapter 4 analyses the increasing regionalization of monetary sovereignty. It argues that, to the extent that transferring sovereign powers to a monetary union is what provides a state’s population with maximum monetary and financial stability, the underlying transfers are not a surrender of monetary sovereignty, but its effective exercise under the form of cooperative sovereignty. Finally, chapter 5 assesses the implications of the contemporary concept of monetary sovereignty proposed herein for the reorganization of the international financial architecture in the wake of the Great Recession.

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Dans cette thèse, je fournis une évaluation empirique des relations entre les principales variables macroéconomiques qui animent le cycle économique. Nous traitons dans chacun des trois chapitres une question empirique en utilisant une approche économétrique bayésienne. Dans le premier chapitre nous étudions la contribution conditionnelle des taux de transition du marché du travail (le taux de retour en emploi et le taux de séparation). La littérature n'est pas parvenue à un consensus sur lequel des taux dominent la dynamique du marché du travail. Alors que Blanchard et Diamond (1990) ont conclu que la baisse de l'emploi en période de récession résulte d'un taux de séparation plus élevé, Shimer (2012), ainsi que Hall (2005), expliquent que les variations du chômage sont principalement expliqués par la variation du taux de retour en emploi. Notre résultat, obtenu grâce à une estimation d'un modèle VAR structurel, montre que l'importance de chaque taux de transition dépend des chocs qui ont frappé le marché du travail et de l'importance des institutions du marché du travail. Dans le second chapitre, nous évaluons l'impact de la réforme du marché du travail réalisée par le Président des États-Unis H. Hoover au début de la Grande Dépression. Nous montrons que ces politiques ont permis à l'économie américaine d'échapper à une grande spirale déflationniste. L'estimation d'un modèle DSGE à l'échelle agrégée, nous permet de comparer deux effets opposés que ces politiques impliquent : effet négatif dû à une baisse de l'emploi et l'effet positif dû aux anticipations inflationnistes qui sont expansionnistes quand l'économie est dans la trappe à liquidité. Les résultats dépendent de la règle de politique monétaire que nous supposons : le principe de Taylor ou le ciblage du niveau de prix. Le troisième chapitre est consacré à la relation entre le taux d'intérêt réel et l'activité économique qui dépend du nombre des participants aux marchés financiers. En utilisant un modèle DSGE et en permettant à la proportion de ces agents d'être stochastiques en suivant une chaîne de Markov, nous identifions les périodes historiques où la proportion était assez faible pour inverser la courbe IS. Pour le cas des États-Unis, nous montrons que cette relation est positive pendant la période de la Grande Inflation et pendant une courte période au début de la Grande Récession. Dans l'union européenne, la proportion de non­-participants a été augmentée pendant les années 2009-2015 mais seulement pour amplifier la corrélation négative entre le taux d'intérêt réel et la croissance de la production. / In this thesis I provide an empirical assessment of the relations between the main macroeconomic variables that drive the Business Cycle. We treat the empirical question that arises in each chapter using Bayesian estimation. In the first chapter we investigate conditional contribution of the labor market transition rates (the job finding rate and the separation rate) to unemployment. The literature did not have a consensus on which rate dominates in explaining the labor market dynamics. While Blanchard and Diamond (1990) concluded that the fall in employment during slumps resulted from a higher separation rate, Shimer (2012), as well as Hall (2005), explain unemployment variations by mainly the job finding rate. Our result, obtained through an estimation of a structural VAR model, shows that the importance of the transition rated depends on the shocks that hit an economy and hence the importance of the labor market institutions. In the second chapter, we assess the impact of the labor market reform of the US president H. Hoover implemented at the beginning of the Great Depression. We show that these policies prevented the US economy to enter a big deflationary spiral. Estimating a medium scale DSGE model, we also compare two opposite effects these policies lead to: negative effect through a fall in employment and positive effect though inflationary expectations which are expansionary when monetary policy is irresponsive to the rise in prices. The results depend on the monetary policy rule we assume: The Taylor principle or price level targeting. The third chapter is devoted to the relation between the real interest rate and the economic activity which depends on the number of asset market participants. Using a DSGE model and allowing to the proportion of these agents to be stochastic and to follow a Markov chain, we identify the historical sub-periods where this proportion was low enough to reverse the IS curve. For the US case, we report the studied relation to be positive during the Great Inflation period and for a short period at the edge of the Great Recession. In the EA, the proportion of non-participants has been increased during 2009-2015, but only to amplify the negative correlation between the real interest rate and output growth.

Les conséquences des chocs économiques négatifs sur les ménages ont été documentés extensivement, mais on en sait beaucoup moins sur la manière dont ces chocs sont transmis aux individus à travers la médiation du ménage. Le ménage contribue-il à modérer l'effet des chocs négatifs ? Dans quelle mesure le choc économique pèse-t-il dans la négociation familiale ? À partir de données sur la crise économique argentine de 2001, je montre d'abord que les femmes en couple ont une plus grande probabilité de devenir actives si leur mari a fait l'expérience d'un choc de revenu. Ensuite, je montre que le cycle économique importe dans les décisions d'investissement en capital humain. Sur le long terme, les profils de salaire et d'employabilité des hommes argentins sont affectés de manière persistante par les conditions économiques initiales au moment de l'obtention du diplôme. Enfin, je considère la dimension “man-cession” de la crise économique de 2009 en Espagne et montre que la part des ressources du ménage reçues par les femmes pour leur consommation privée augmente avec la diminution de l'écart des taux de chômage hommes-femmes, confortant l'hypothèse que les chocs négatifs modifient le pouvoir de négociation des individus au sein du ménage. / The consequences of adverse aggregate shocks on households have been repeatedly documented, but far less has been said on the way they are passed over to individuals through the mediation of the household. Does the household contribute in mitigating the effects? Or does the economic shock rather invite itself at the family negociating table? Using the Argentine 2001 economic crisis as a natural experiment, I first show that married women are more likely to enter the labor market if their husband experienced a loss in income, giving credit to the insurance mechanism. Then, I show that the business cycle matters for investments in education, and that long run labor outcomes of Argentine men are persistently affected by the initial conditions upon graduation. Finally, I consider the “Mancession” dimension of the Great Recession in Spain and demonstrate that the resource share accruing to wives for own consumption increases together with the decreasing unemployment gap, which comes in support to the bargaining hypothesis.