The marine biological carbon pump (BCP) leads to the transfer of carbon from the atmosphere to the ocean interior through the growth of photosynthetic plankton in the euphotic zone and subsequent sinking of particulate matter to depth. In the subarctic northeast Pacific Ocean, the BCP is limited by the availability of the micro-nutrient iron (Fe) in the offshore, high nutrient, low chlorophyll (HNLC) region and by the macronutrient nitrate in the coastal region. In the last decade, two atmospheric events led to anomalously high sea surface temperatures, or marine heatwaves, in 2014-2015 and 2019 that were related to changes in the phytoplankton community composition and the BCP. Given that the bioavailability of trace metals can control microbial community composition, and important rate processes related to the BCP, we studied the spatial and temporal variation in the distribution of dissolved trace metals manganese, iron, cobalt, nickel, copper, and cadmium and macronutrients nitrate, phosphate, and silicic acid from 5 stations along the Line P Time Series transect in the subarctic northeast Pacific Ocean from winter (February) and summer (August) 2012-2019. In 2014 the mixed layer shallowed by diminished winter storm mixing, resulted in lower trace metal and macronutrient concentrations, but sustained dissolved iron and net community production (NCP) in the offshore, while the coastal region biogeochemistry remained similar to previous years (2012-2013). In 2015, further mixed layer shallowing allowed for similarly diminished trace metal (most notably iron), macronutrient concentrations, and NCP in the offshore and coastal regions. The phytoplankton community in the offshore shifted towards a higher relative abundance of pico-nano size species in both 2014 and 2015, with biomass sustained in 2014 and reduced in 2015. During the second marine heatwave event in 2019, the offshore was subject to similar winter mixed layer shallowing, warming, and reduced macronutrient concentrations. In the summer, surface trace metal and macronutrient concentrations were greatly diminished, resulting in nitrate limitation in the offshore. As the oceans continue to warm in response to anthropogenic CO2, a likely consequence may be more frequent, and severe, marine heatwaves that can have internal and external effects on micro-macronutrient distributions, phytoplankton production, and the efficiency of the biological carbon pump. / Graduate

Heatwave studies typically estimate heat-related mortality and morbidity risks at the city level; few have addressed the heterogeneous risks by socioeconomic status (SES) and location within a city. This study aimed to examine the impacts of heatwaves on mortality outcomes in Memphis, Tennessee, a Mid-South metropolitan area top-ranked in morbidity and poverty rates, and to investigate the effects of SES and urbanicity. Mortality data were retrieved from the death records in 2008–2017, and temperature data from the Applied Climate Information System. Heatwave days were defined based on four temperature metrics. Heatwave effects on daily total-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality were evaluated using Poisson regression, accounting for temporal trends, sociodemographic factors, urbanicity, and air pollution. We found higher cardiovascular mortality risk (cumulative RR (relative risk) = 1.25, 95% CI (confidence interval): 1.01–1.55) in heatwave days defined as those with maximum daily temperature >95th percentile for more than two consecutive days. The effects of heatwaves on mortality did not differ by SES, race, or urbanicity. The findings of this study provided evidence to support future heatwave planning and studies of heatwave and health impacts at a coarser geographic resolution.

Hermatypic, or reef-building, corals (Order Scleractinia) are the foundation of coral reefs, providing a diversity of structurally complex habitats for the myriad species in these biologically diverse ecosystems. However, both local and global anthropogenic stressors threaten the persistence of these corals. For this thesis, thirty 16m2 permanent photoquadrats at 10 shallow forereef sites around Kiritimati (Christmas Island, Republic of Kiribati) were monitored across a four-year study encompassing the 2015-2016 El Niño derived marine heatwave, and subsequent mass coral mortality event. Sites were exposed to either low, medium, or high levels of local anthropogenic disturbance. My objective herein was to examine the effects of a mass coral mortality event on reef structural complexity, from the end of the event to three years afterwards. To do so, I digitally quantified six metrics of structural complexity for each photoquadrat sampled across three resolution scales for each of the five expeditions. Plots from 2015, 2017, and 2019 were later annotated based on the morphological structure present. I found that while significant declines in multiple of habitat metrics occurred by the end of the heatwave, no further significant declines occurred thereafter. However, this trend was lost as resolution scale increased, indicating the trends seen in the habitat metrics at 1.0 cm were likely documenting the shift from live coral towards abiotic dominated reefs. Anthropogenic disturbance compounded the El Niño’s effect, ensuring high disturbance sites had the lowest structural complexity values throughout the study. Lastly, live branching, tabulate, foliose, and submassive coral morphologies were found to be most closely associated with the different habitat complexity metrics. These results highlight the importance live coral structure has on reef structural complexity, illustrate the importance of model resolution when quantifying trends in structural complexity, pinpoint coral morphologies creating reef structural complexity, and further emphasize the need to limit the effects of local anthropogenic disturbance on coral reefs. / Graduate / 2023-04-15

Mankind is facing major challenges with climate change. Heatwaves are one of the biggest climate risks in Sweden in the future, in terms of how serious the consequences will be and the probability that it will occur. Heatwaves can affect all individuals, but mainly affects different risk groups like young children. To reduce children's vulnerability to climate risks, adults like preschool educators assumes to take responsibility and protect children. The purpose of the study is to investigate the educators' risk perception regarding heatwaves and whether adaptation measures is used to reduce vulnerabilities with heatwaves in preschools.To investigate this, a questionnaire study with open and closed questions was used, and answered by educators working in Forshaga Municipality. The results shows that the respondents have a good knowledge, the majority believe that the risk is likely to occur in pre-schools within 5 years and in a ranking with other climate-related risks, heatwaves is the highest risk. A few differences in risk perception have been identified. But there is a consensus about the risk among the respondents. Vulnerabilities exist in preschools due to exposure to the risk, sensitivity arises through increased workload and lack of recovery and adaptability is deficient. A few minor adaptation measures are available, but the results show that adaptions are partly or completely missing. An example is that there is no organizational readiness and there is a great potential for improvement within adaptation measures, so that preschools in Forshaga Municipality will be able to handle heatwaves in the future / Mänskligheten står inför stora utmaningar med klimatförändringarna. Värmebölja anses i framtiden vara en av de största klimatriskerna i Sverige, sett till allvarliga konsekvenserna är och sannolikheten att det inträffar. Värmebölja kan påverka alla individer, men drabbar främst olika riskgrupper som exempelvis småbarn. För att minska barns sårbarhet inför klimatrisker,förutsätts vuxna som till exempel pedagoger i förskolan ta ansvar och skydda barnen. Syftet med studien är att undersöka pedagogernas riskuppfattning om värmebölja och om anpassningsåtgärder vidtas för att minska sårbarheter med värmebölja i förskolan. För att undersöka detta har en enkätstudie med öppna och slutna frågor genomförts, med pedagogersom arbetar inom Forshaga Kommuns förskolor.Resultatet visar på en god upplevd kunskap hos respondenterna, majoriteten anser att riskensannolikt kommer inträffa på förskolan inom 5 år och i en rangordning med andra klimatrelaterade risker värderas värmebölja högst. Några få skillnader inom riskuppfattninghar identifierats, men finns generellt en samsyn om risken hos respondenterna. Sårbarheter finns i förskolorna genom att exponering av risken sker, känslighet kan uppstå av faktorer som ökad arbetsbelastning och avsaknad av återhämtning samt anpassningsförmåga är bristfällig. Vissa enklare anpassningsåtgärder finns att tillgå, men resultatet visar att åtgärder saknas delvis eller helt. Exempel är att organisatorisk beredskap inte finns etablerat och finns en stor förbättringspotential inom anpassningsåtgärder, för att förskolor i Forshaga Kommun ska kunna hantera värmeböljor i framtiden.

Marine aquaculture is already vital to global food security and will continue to become more important in the coming years. Crassostrea gigas (Pacific oysters) is the primary oyster species cultivated worldwide. The FAO and IPCC predict that climate change will create uncertainty and challenges for marine aquaculture. Baynes Sound, British Columbia, is a productive region for aquaculture, producing >50% of British Columbia’s total annual bivalve production by live weight and value. Major summer mortality events have been documented in farmed Crassostrea gigas globally since the 1950’s. These events are believed to be caused by a multiplicity of factors including changes induced by anthropogenic climate change. One of the major contributors to summer mortality is the proliferation of Vibrio bacteria, specifically Vibrio aestuarianus, which has been shown to increase in abundance and virulence when seawater temperatures rise. Despite this connection and the economic importance of oyster farming in the region, little is known about the presence of V. aestuarianus in Baynes Sound. Our 17-month study sampled 7 sites in Baynes Sound on 33 occasions from May 2019 to September 2020. We found a positive correlation between seawater temperature and total Vibrio detected in water samples in Baynes Sound, an association that was stronger when the overall temperature regime was warmer. We found no significant correlation between any of the bacterial assays tested and salinity, pH, or Ωarag saturation. We also did not identify a geographic pattern to bacterial abundance or virulence amongst test C. gigas in the field. Understanding that flagellates are the predominant type of microalgae present in Baynes Sound when summer mortality events occur, in lab trials, we found that incorporating V. aestuarianus into marine aggregates with flagellate microalgae caused higher mortality than aggregates with diatoms or planktonic V. aestuarianus. These results were not statistically significant but led us to look at how exposure to husbandry stress pre and post inoculation with V. aestuarianus incorporated into marine aggregates affects mortality. We found that stress was a significant driver of mortality, particularly when administered 24h post inoculation, suggesting that farmers should avoid sorting or tumbling their oysters in the summer, and particularly immediately after a marine heatwave. Oysters lack adaptive immune systems and are grown in an open ocean environment where it is not possible to eliminate their exposure to pathogens. These factors make it impossible to use vaccines or antibacterial disinfectants to combat diseases. Therefore, breeding genetic resistance to V. aestuarianus may be the most effective way to fight summer mortality. Creating a repeatable and accurate protocol for inoculating oysters with marine bacteria is key to accurate heritability measurements and the estimation of breeding values of different families. Key factors include controlling for dose per animal, laboratory efficiency, and inoculation via a mechanism that mimics real-world infection and does not bypass the animal’s immune defenses. We designed a protocol which controls for these factors, separating each animal into individual containers and adding a controlled dose of planktonic bacteria to each. Previously used methods of injection or using an infected “donor” animal in a group tank do not control for dose or bypass parts of the oysters’ natural immune system, potentially creating inaccuracies in survival data generated with these methods. After designing this protocol, we tested 32 full-sib families and estimated the heritability of survival to V. aestuarianus on the observed and underlying liability scales to be 0.095 (SE = 0.043), and 0.15 (SE = 0.068) respectively. We also found a strong negative correlation between oyster size and survival, with a gram of additional weight creating a 73% increase in the risk of death. Fast growth and large size are two traits which have been explicitly bred into C. gigas stock. Our work suggests that breeding a slower-growing, smaller animal may reduce summer mortality. / Graduate / 2022-09-15

Global biodiversity losses are being driven by human actions, and coral reef communities are not immune. Local anthropogenic stress and global climate change are rapidly changing coral reefs, through coral bleaching and mortality. How these stressors impact the biodiversity and community structure of corals on tropical reefs will not only affect the communities of fish and invertebrates that rely on coral reefs, but they could have lasting impacts on ecosystem functioning. The record-breaking marine heatwave caused by the 2015/2016 El Niño was superimposed on a strong local human disturbance gradient on Kiritimati, Kiribati, allowing for the investigation of how these combined disturbances affect coral communities. In Chapter 2, I investigated how soft coral cover varies with these disturbances and natural environmental factors, using benthic photoquadrats collected on Kiritimati’s forereefs from 2007 to 2019. Additionally, I conducted a literature review to establish what is already known about soft coral and disturbances, to compare Kiritimati data to that found in the literature. I show that soft corals are grossly understudied, with only a fifth (19/94) of coral studies presenting any results of heat stress effects on soft corals, and even fewer (5%) presenting taxonomic-specific results. On Kiritimati, prior to the 2015/2016 El Niño, soft corals were more common at sheltered sites with lower net primary productivity, but no effect of local disturbance was found. Soft corals were, however, highly vulnerable to heat stress, with a documented complete loss after the heatwave. I also show that soft coral skeletons persisted for years after the heatwave and provided substrate for hard coral recruitment. In Chapter 3, I examined how local and global stressors affected coral diversity, using community composition photoquadrat data collected from 2013 to 2017, and developed a conceptual framework for understanding effects of multiple stressors, when there are both discrete and continuous stressors. Coral alpha diversity (assessed as Hill diversity) exhibited a non-linear relationship with local anthropogenic stress, peaking at intermediate levels, and was negatively impacted by the marine heatwave, such that sites tended to decrease in both coral richness and evenness. Coral beta diversity (assessed as community composition turnover) was significantly impacted by both stressors, but sites exposed to higher levels of anthropogenic stress tended to experience less turnover during the heatwave. Explicitly considering the relationships between the two stressors, I found that it varied depending on the intensity of anthropogenic stress and the diversity metric (i.e., richness vs. composition) examined. For Hill-Richness, I found a tipping point at moderate levels of local anthropogenic stress, below which there was an additive response and above which the response tended towards synergy. In contrast, for Hill-Shannon and Hill-Simpson the responses were additive and there was an antagonistic effect between stressors for community composition. By using the frameworks outlined in this thesis for reporting changes to soft coral due to disturbances, and examining relationships between discrete and continuous stressors, we may better predict how reefs will look in the future and what actions will conserve and assist in the recovery of coral reef ecosystems. / Graduate / 2022-08-10

Heatwave events as a kind of extreme climate event, have plagued the human race for the past few years. It severely influences people’s life quality, sometimes even leads to some serious diseases. In order to alleviate the possible damages heatwave events can do, some targeted actions are necessary and forecasting heatwaves is one of them. This study focuses on predicting potential heatwave events in Sweden, replying on the correlations between multiple meteorological and surface-related features, with the help of machine learning techniques. The related remote sensing data of 21 features are extracted and implemented with features selection using a correlation heatmap and 16 of them are finally determined to be used for prediction. Five types of classifiers LR, Gaussian NB, KNN, RF and XGBoost are utilized on the training and validation datasets with hyperparameter tuning and threshold tuning methods to choose the model that has the best performance to predict heatwaves using the test dataset. The results show that RF and XGBoost both perform well on the validation set, but XGBoost is more suitable applying on the test set since XGBoost possesses a higher generality. / Värmeböljor som en sorts extrem klimathändelse har plågat mänskligheten under de senaste åren. Det påverkar allvarligt människors livskvalitet, ibland till och med leder till några allvarliga sjukdomar. För att lindra de möjliga skadorna som värmeböljor kan orsaka är några riktade åtgärder nödvändiga och att förutse värmeböljor är en av dem. Denna studie fokuserar på att förutsäga potentiella värmeböljshändelser i Sverige, svara på sambanden mellan flera meteorologiska och ytrelaterade egenskaper, med hjälp av maskininlärningstekniker. De relaterade fjärravkänningsdata för 21 funktioner extraheras och implementeras med funktionsval med hjälp av en korrelationsvärmekarta och 16 av dem bestäms slutligen att användas för förutsägelse. Fem typer av klassificerare LR, Gaussian NB, KNN, RF och XGBoost används på tränings- och valideringsdataseten med hyperparameterjustering och tröskeljusteringsmetoder för att välja den modell som har bäst prestanda för att förutsäga värmeböljor med hjälp av testdatauppsättningen. Resultaten visar att RF och XGBoost båda presterar bra på valideringssetet, men XGBoost är mer lämpligt att applicera på testsetet eftersom XGBoost har en högre generalitet.

This thesis investigates the impact of Green Infrastructure (GI) and Local Climate Zones (LCZs) on air temperature at 2 meters above the ground (T2m) in Norrköping and Linköping, Sweden, with a focus on urban planning and climate resilience strategies. Two concepts of LCZ and the newly developed “3-30-300” GI rule are applied. Two concepts are evaluated under summer 2018 strong heatwave conditions and project future scenarios with a 3°C rise in global temperatures during extreme heatwaves. The results show an increase in mean temperature of about 2.9 °C and an extended duration of heatwaves in 17 days from the summer of 2018 to the possible future. Findings indicate that urban areas adhering to 30% tree canopy coverage and within 300 meters or less of a park show a 0.7°C reduction in median T2m during heatwaves. LCZs with more natural environments and less paved surfaces, such as open low-rise, sparsely built, and open midrise, exhibit lower air temperatures, while densely built areas (compact high-rise) show higher temperatures at night, and wide-open paved areas (large low-rise, heavy industry) show higher temperatures during days. The study underscores the necessity of increasing GI coverage and parks in both cities, highlighting the challenges of equitable GI distribution. Recommendations for future research include selecting cooling-effective indigenous tree species and expanding the scope to additional climate variables. This work provides crucial insights for urban areas in Nordic countries and similar climates, contributing to sustainable urban planning and enhanced climate resilience.

学位プログラム名: 京都大学大学院思修館 / 京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(総合学術) / 甲第25460号 / 総総博第36号 / 新制||総総||6(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院総合生存学館総合生存学専攻 / (主査)教授 IALNAZOVDimiter Savov, 教授 山敷 庸亮, 准教授 関山 健, 寶 馨 (防災科学技術研究所) / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy / Kyoto University / DFAM

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