Valutamarknaden är världens största marknad och en nödvändig del av dagens globala samhälle, som gör det möjligt för företag att göra affärer i olika valutor och mellan olika gränser. Marknaden utgör en stor handelsplattform för både små och stora aktörer, för vilka det är viktigt att prognostisera valutakurser med gott resultat. Att modellera finansiella instrument i form av tidsserier är en av de vanligaste investeringsstrategierna och dess användningsområde sträcker sig från valutamarknaden till bland annat aktiemarknaden och råvarumarknaden. I denna uppsats undersöks fyra olika statistiska metoder för att modellera valutakursen Euro-US Dollar givet historisk data, och prognoser görs med de framtagna modellerna. Dessa metoder är slumpvandring, ARIMA, ARIMA-GARCH och VAR. Vidare undersöks för den dynamiska VAR-modellen hur valutamarkanden påverkar, och blir påverkad av, långa och korta räntan. Resultaten visar att ARIMA(3,1,2) förklarar valutakursen bäst medan VAR(2) med valutakursen och skillnaden mellan långa räntor som ingående variabler ger de bästa prediktionerna. / The foreign exchange market is the world’s largest market and is an essential part of the global society of today. The FX market enables companies to trade with different currencies across country borders. It is also a large trade-platform for both big and small financial actors, who greatly benefit from the advantages of good predictions. Modeling of financial instruments is one of the most commonly used investment strategies and its area of application ranges from the FX market to markets suchas the stock market and the commodity market. In this paper, four different statistical models are used to model the currency pair Euro-US Dollar. These methods are random walk, ARIMA, ARIMA-GARCH and VAR. Besides investigating which method that gives the best forecasts, the method that best describes the training datais also found. Furthermore, for the dynamic VAR model, it is explored how the FX market affects, and is affected by, the long term and short term interest. The results show that ARIMA(3,1,2) is the best at describing the exchange rate while VAR(2) with the exchange rate and the difference between long term interests as variables gives the best predictions.

As linhas de distribuição de energia estão freqüentemente expostas a sobretensões causadas por descargas atmosféricas diretas e indiretas. As formas de onda dessas sobretensões têm uma faixa de variação muito ampla e podem diferir bastante do impulso atmosférico normalizado utilizado em ensaios para verificação da adequação dos projetos das isolações dos equipamentos frente a sobretensões atmosféricas (1,2 / 50 microssegundos). É fato conhecido que a suportabilidade das isolações depende não só da amplitude como da forma de onda das solicitações. Diferentes modelos têm sido propostos para se estimar o desempenho das isolações frente a impulsos não normalizados, sendo o modelo do efeito disruptivo (disruptive effect model) um dos mais utilizados. Existem, contudo, diferentes métodos de aplicação desse modelo, ou seja, diferentes formas de se estimar os parâmetros necessários para a sua aplicação. Este trabalho visa avaliar o comportamento dielétrico de isoladores de média tensão e analisar os principais métodos para estimativa da suportabilidade desses equipamentos frente a sobretensões atmosféricas com formas de onda diferentes da normalizada. Para essa avaliação foram realizados ensaios em um isolador tipo pino, de porcelana, com tensão nominal de 15 kV, nos quais foram utilizadas, além do impulso atmosférico normalizado, outras ondas selecionadas com base em resultados de medição e de cálculo. Modificações realizadas no circuito de um gerador de impulsos de alta tensão convencional permitiram a geração de tensões com formas de onda bastante semelhantes às de sobretensões induzidas por descargas atmosféricas tanto em linhas de tamanho natural como em experimentos realizados com modelo reduzido. São apresentados e discutidos os resultados dos ensaios de tensão disruptiva de impulso atmosférico a 50 % e as curvas tensão-tempo (U x t) obtidas para cada impulso, considerando ambas as polaridades. A avaliação dos métodos de aplicação do modelo do efeito disruptivo foi realizada com base em comparações entre as curvas tensão-tempo obtidas nos ensaios e as curvas previstas por cada modelo, para cada uma das ondas selecionadas. / Overhead distribution lines are often exposed to lightning overvoltages, whose waveshapes vary widely and can differ substantially from the standard impulse voltage waveshape used to test electric equipment insulation against lightning surges (1.2 / 50 microseconds wave). It is well known that the voltage withstand capability of insulation depends not only on the amplitude but also on the voltage waveshape. Different models have been proposed for predicting the strength of insulation subjected to impulses of non-standard waveshapes. One of the most commonly used is the \"disruptive effect model\". There are, however, different methods of applying this model, that is, different ways of estimating the parameters needed for its application. This thesis aims at evaluating the dielectric behavior of medium voltage insulators subjected to impulses of non-standard waveshapes, as well as at evaluating the main methods for predicting their dielectric strength against such impulses. For the analysis, tests were performed on a pin type porcelain insulator with rated voltage of 15 kV, using, besides the standard lightning impulse voltage waveshape, other s waveshapes selected based on the characteristics of measured and calculated lightning overvoltages. Modifications made to the circuit of a conventional impulse voltage generator allowed to obtain voltage waveshapes very similar to those of lightning-induced voltages measured in experiments conducted both in lines of natural size and in reduced model. The test results relative to the critical lightning impulse flashover voltage (U50) and the volt-time characteristics obtained for the positive and negative polarities of each waveshape are presented and discussed. The evaluation of the methods of determining the parameters of the disruptive effect model was based on comparisons between the volt-time curves obtained from the laboratory tests and those predicted by each method, for each of the selected voltage waveshapes.

Submitted by Celso Magalhaes (celsomagalhaes@ufrrj.br) on 2017-06-20T15:28:09Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2016 - Pablo Vieira dos Santos.pdf: 2713237 bytes, checksum: 034b9528933152d64f409aa5701ceba6 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-06-20T15:28:09Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2016 - Pablo Vieira dos Santos.pdf: 2713237 bytes, checksum: 034b9528933152d64f409aa5701ceba6 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-02-26 / Coordena??o de Aperfei?oamento de Pessoal de N?vel Superior - CAPES / Forest restoration is an important mechanism which can recover anthropized environments. In this context, the use of native species in order to wood production has become a very positive alternative in the economic viability of this activity, so that, know information about native species with potential for production of high quality wood, used in forest restoration, is an important task. Concerning this, the objective of this study was to evaluate the quality of the wood Cariniana legalis (Mart.) Kuntze from forest restoration plantings, through non-destructive methods. Were selected 20 individuals in the field through a silvicultural assessment and then were determined dendrometric characteristics: diameter at breast height (DBH), total height, tree standing volume and bark thickness. Four different non-destructive methods of assessing wood quality based on the DBH (1.30 m from the base of the tree): extensometry, resistograph, impulse tomograph and x-ray densitometry (pulling out wood samples by Pressler probe). The longitudinal residual strain (LRS) average of wood was 0.054 mm, a value lower than that found in the literature for many species, as for the Eucalyptus genus. The amplitudes generated by resistograph allowed the estimation the basic density values of wood Cariniana legalis, presenting a positive and significant correlation (r = 0.68) at 1% significance level. The average apparent density average, obtained by X-ray densitometry, was 0.528 g / cm3. In general, Cariniana legalis threes were homogeneous, with good sanity wood (without internal rot or hollow) and moderately dense density being easy workability and suitable for the furniture industry. / A restaura??o florestal ? um importante mecanismo, no qual se consegue recuperar ambientes antropizados. Neste contexto, o uso de esp?cies nativas visando a produ??o madeireira tem se tornado uma alternativa bastante positiva na viabiliza??o econ?mica desta atividade, de modo que, conhecer informa??es a respeito de esp?cies nativas com potencial na produ??o de madeira de alta qualidade, utilizadas na restaura??o florestal, ? uma tarefa de grande import?ncia. Nesse sentido, o objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a qualidade da madeira de Cariniana legalis (Mart.) Kuntze proveniente de plantios de restaura??o florestal, atrav?s de m?todos n?o destrutivos. Foram selecionados 20 indiv?duos no campo por meio de uma avalia??o silvicultural e em seguida determinou-se as caracter?sticas dendrom?tricas (di?metro ? altura do peito (DAP), altura total, volume da ?rvore em p? e a espessura da casca). Quatro diferentes m?todos n?o destrutivos de avalia??o da qualidade da madeira foram utilizados, sendo eles a extensometria, resistograf?a, tomografia de impulso e densitometria de raios X (retirando-se amostras do lenho por meio da sonda de Pressler), todos os ensaios tiveram como refer?ncia a altura do DAP (1,30m a partir da base da ?rvore). A deforma??o residual longitudinal (DRL) m?dia da madeira foi de 0,054 mm, valor este inferior ao encontrado na literatura para muitas esp?cies, como para o g?nero Eucalyptus. As amplitudes geradas pelo resist?grafo permitiram estimar os valores de densidade b?sica da madeira de Cariniana legalis, apresentando uma correla??o positiva e significativa (r = 0,68) ao n?vel de 1% de signific?ncia. A densidade aparente m?dia, obtida por meio da densitometria de raios X, foi de 0,528 g/cm3. De maneira geral os indiv?duos de Cariniana legalis se mostraram homog?neos, apresentando boa sanidade do lenho (sem ocos internos ou podrid?es) e densidade moderadamente densa, sendo de f?cil trabalhabilidade e indicada para a ind?stria moveleira

Submitted by Karla Malafaia (karlamalafaia@gmail.com) on 2013-02-26T23:31:57Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_Karla_Malafaia_VF_posbanca.pdf: 730119 bytes, checksum: 82ceecb815ca22f5f1e5fee680caf839 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Vera Lúcia Mourão (vera.mourao@fgv.br) on 2013-02-27T13:25:04Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_Karla_Malafaia_VF_posbanca.pdf: 730119 bytes, checksum: 82ceecb815ca22f5f1e5fee680caf839 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-02-27T13:29:38Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_Karla_Malafaia_VF_posbanca.pdf: 730119 bytes, checksum: 82ceecb815ca22f5f1e5fee680caf839 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-01-29 / Este trabalho se propõe a testar e quantificar a importância do investimento de longo prazo, captado pela série de desembolsos da linha BNDES Finem, na produção industrial brasileira. Através dos modelos de causalidade de Granger e Função resposta ao impulso, podemos verificar as respostas acumuladas ao longo de três anos da linha Finem a choques positivos de um desvio padrão nas variáveis inflação, produção industrial, spread, e, da mesma forma um choque na variável Finem com resposta nas variáveis acima descritas. Além disso, é possível identificar a importância do BNDES como um ator anticíclico em períodos de crise como na economia brasileira. Como resultado, encontramos que apesar dos desembolsos Finem não Granger causarem a produção industrial brasileira, se testadas em conjunto com dados de inflação e a diferença entre a Selic e a TJLP rejeita-se a hipótese nula de não causalidade a 1% de significância. Já os testes de funções de resposta ao impulso indicam que a taxa de crescimento da produção industrial tem resposta positiva a um choque de desvio padrão nos desembolsos de Finem. Contudo, se testada em conjunto um choque no Finem apesar de impactar positivamente a produção industrial acaba pressionando a inflação. / This work is to test and quantify the importance of a long-term investment captured by the series of disbursements of BNDES Finem line in brazilian industrial production. Through Granger causality and impulse-response function, it was possible to check the Finem line accumulated answers along three years to positive shocks of a standard deviation on the variables inflation, industrial production, spread, and a shock on Finem variable with answer on the previous described variables. Furthermore, it's possible to identify the BNDES's importance as a countercyclical tool in crisis period as in brazilian economy. As a result, we found that despite causing the brazilian industrial production, if the no Granger Finem's disbursements are tested with inflation data and the difference between Selic and TJLP, the null hypothesis of no causality at 1% of significance is rejected. Yet, the tests of impulse-response function indicate that the industrial production growth rate has positive answer to a shock of standard deviation on Finem's disbursements. However, despite impacting the industrial production positevely, it pressures the inflation if it's tested with a shock on Finem.

Fusion frames and block sparse recovery are of interest in signal processing and communication applications. In these applications it is required that the fusion frame have some desirable properties. One such requirement is that the fusion frame be tight and its subspaces form an optimal packing in a Grassmannian manifold. Such fusion frames are called Grassmannian fusion frames. Grassmannian frames are known to be optimal dictionaries for sparse recovery as they have minimum coherence. By analogy Grassmannian fusion frames are potential candidates as optimal dictionaries in block sparse processing. The present work intends to study fusion frames in finite dimensional vector spaces assuming a specific structure useful in block sparse signal processing. The main focus of our work is the design of Grassmannian fusion frames and their implication in block sparse recovery. We will consider burst error correction as an application of block sparsity and fusion frame concepts. We propose two new algebraic methods for designing Grassmannian fusion frames. The first method involves use of Fourier matrix and difference sets to obtain a partial Fourier matrix which forms a Grassmannian fusion frame. This fusion frame has a specific structure and the parameters of the fusion frame are determined by the type of difference set used. The second method involves constructing Grassmannian fusion frames from Grassmannian frames which meet the Welch bound. This method uses existing constructions of optimal Grassmannian frames. The method, while fairly general, requires that the dimension of the vector space be divisible by the dimension of the subspaces. A lower bound which is an analog of the Welch bound is derived for the block coherence of dictionaries along with conditions to be satisfied to meet the bound. From these results we conclude that the matrices constructed by us are optimal for block sparse recovery from block coherence viewpoint. There is a strong relation between sparse signal processing and error control coding. It is known that burst errors are block sparse in nature. So, here we attempt to solve the burst error correction problem using block sparse signal recovery methods. The use of Grassmannian fusion frames which we constructed as optimal dictionary allows correction of maximum possible number of errors, when used in conjunction with reconstruction algorithms which exploit block sparsity. We also suggest a modification to improve the applicability of the technique and point out relationship with a method which appeared previously in literature. As an application example, we consider the use of the burst error correction technique for impulse noise cancelation in OFDM system. Impulse noise is bursty in nature and severely degrades OFDM performance. The Grassmannian fusion frames constructed with Fourier matrix and difference sets is ideal for use in this application as it can be easily incorporated into the OFDM system.

This paper considers the linkages between output growth and output volatility for the sample of G7 countries over the period 1958M2-2011M7, thereby paying particular attention to spillovers within and between countries. Using the VAR-based spillover index approach by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012), we identify several empirical regularities: i) output growth and volatility are highly intertwined, with spillovers taking place into all four directions; ii) the importance of spillovers has increased after the mid 1980s and reached unprecedented levels during the recent financial and economic crisis; iii) the US has been the largest transmitter of output and volatility shocks to other countries. Generalized impulse response analyses point to moderate growth-growth spillovers and sizable volatility-volatility spillovers across countries, suggesting that volatility shocks quintuplicate in the long run. The cross-variable effects turn out negative: volatilty shocks lead to lower economic growth, growth shocks tend to reduce output volatility. Our findings underline the increased vulnerability of the G7 countries to destabilizing shocks and their detrimental effects on economic growth, which are sizeably amplified through international spillover effects and the associated repercussions. / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Globalization provoked in financial markets by means stock exchanges an interchange among the markets over the world. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship of the ten major main economic index of the world represented in New York (DJIA, S&P500 e Nasdaq), Tokyo (NIKKEI 225), London (FSTE 100), São Paulo (IBOV), Shanghai (SSE180), Paris (CAC-40), Frankfurt (DAX-30) and Buenos Aires (Merval) and looking for its co-integration, to demonstrate the behavior of these indexes and the long run equilibrium, from January of 2010 to March of 2011. To investigate the equilibrium and the long rum behavior the error correction model was used jointly with co-integration test and impulse response based on Cholesky decomposition. The results of this study show that the index of stock markets has long term equilibrium, and American markets, Argentina and English showed a strong influence over other markets. With this research we can infer that a relationship exists between the stock markets under study, confirming that the economy in a country can influence the others. In this sense, the contribution of this study, given this range of discussions involving the interconnection of economies with respect to trades made on the stock exchanges, was to show the relationships and influences in the world. / A internacionalização somada à abertura dos mercados financeiros transformou as economias antes fechadas em economias abertas, provocou um intercâmbio entre as economias mundiais por meio das bolsas de valores. O objetivo deste estudo é examinar a relação entre os dez principais índices econômicos do mundo, sendo eles: Nova York (DJIA, S&P500 e Nasdaq), Tóquio (Nikkei 225), Londres (FSTE 100), São Paulo (IBOV), Shangai (SSE180), Paris (CAC), Frankfurt (DAX-30) e Bueno Aires (Merval), por meio da análise de co-integrações para demonstrar o comportamento desses índices e seus equilíbrios no período de janeiro de 2010 a março de 2011. Para investigar e verificar o comportamento em longo prazo, foi utilizado o modelo de correção de erros e teste de impulso-resposta baseado na decomposição de Cholesky. Os resultados deste estudo mostram que existe equilíbrio em longo prazo entre os índices do mercado de ações. Os mercados americano, argentino e inglês mostraram forte influência sobre os demais mercados. Com esta pesquisa, verifica-se que existe uma relação entre os mercados de ações estudados, confirmando que a economia de um país influencia as demais. A contribuição deste estudo é verificar a assertiva das discussões atuais sobre a dependência das economias mundiais com as negociações por meio da bolsa de valores.

Abstract Impulse radio ultra-wideband (IR-UWB) technology, due to its baseband signaling, potentially offers a low cost, low complexity and low power consumption option for different short range sensor network applications. These sensor networks can be applied to many kinds of future implementations, including the Internet of Things (IoT) applications. In the medical and healthcare context, the term wireless body area network (WBAN) is often used, but, as mentioned, the wireless technology itself can be applied to any kind of body, e.g., to car or robot body networks. This thesis studies IR-UWB receivers’ performances in different hospital environment channel models by means of computer simulation. The main focus is on receivers that are capable of detecting the signals specified either in the IEEE 802.15.4-2015 or in the IEEE 802.15.6-2012 standards. The used channel models from two independent research groups include both on-body to on-body and on-body to off-body scenarios in different hospital environments. The evaluations and comparisons of various receivers include energy detector (ED) and rake receivers, the latter with both selective- and partial-rake structures. One of the studied receiver structures is further analyzed as it was noticed that the simulation results did not correspond to the assumed theoretical bit error probability (BEP) curves. Along the standards based studies, some modifications are also suggested for the two existing IR-UWB standards for increased compatibility and improved performance. One of the propositions resulted a Patent Cooperation Treaty (PCT) patent application. Additionally, an extensive survey is provided offering a compilation which includes presentations of IR-UWB research by other researchers, existing standards’ IR-UWB physical layer (PHY) specifications and the main global regulations concerning UWB. / Tiivistelmä Erittäin laajakaistainen impulssiradioteknologia (IR-UWB) tarjoaa potentiaalisen vaihtoehdon yksinkertaisille, edullisille ja matalan tehonkulutuksen omaaville lähetin-vastaanotin-ratkaisuille, jotka soveltuvat lyhyen kantaman sensoriverkkoihin. Nämä sensoriverkot ovat monikäyttöisiä soveltuen esimerkiksi tulevaisuuden esineiden internetin (IoT) tiedonsiirtoratkaisuiksi. Esimerkiksi sairaanhoidon ja terveydenhuollon asiayhteyksissä käytetään monesti termiä langaton kehoverkko (WBAN), joka voidaan asentaa monenlaisiin eri sovelluskohteisiin kuten autoon tai vaikkapa robotin "keholle". Tässä väitöskirjassa on tutkittu tietokonesimulaatioiden avulla erilaisten IR-UWB vastaanotinrakenteiden suorituskykyä sairaalaympäristöä mallintavissa radiokanavissa. Tutkimuksen painopiste on vastaanottimissa, jotka kykenevät vastaanottamaan joko IEEE 802.15.4-2015- tai IEEE 802.15.6-2012-standardeissa määritellyn signaalin. Sairaalaympäristöä mallintavat radiokanavat perustuvat kahden toisistaan riippumattoman tutkijaryhmän mallinnuksiin, jotka sisältävät sekä keholta-keholle että keholta-kehon ulkopuolelle -radiokanavamallit. Energiailmaisin (ED) ja erilaiset harava-vastaanottimet ovat niitä vastaanotinrakenteita, joita tähän väitöskirjaan kuuluvissa artikkeleissa on arvioitu ja vertailtu. Yhtä vastaanotinrakennetta on myös analysoitu tarkemmin, kun havaittiin, etteivät kyseistä rakennetta koskevat simulaatiotulokset vastanneet oletettuja teoreettisia bittivirhetodennäköisyyksiä. Tutkimuksessa kehitettiin lisäksi olemassa olevien standardien ratkaisuihin liittyviä parannusehdotuksia, joita esitettiin muutamissa tähän väitöskirjaan sisällytetyissä artikkeleissa. Yhdestä ehdotuksesta tehtiin myös PCT-sopimuksen alainen patentointihakemus. Lisäksi yhdessä tähän väitöskirjaan sisällytetyssä artikkelissa on paitsi laaja kirjallisuuskatsaus sisältäen katsauksen muiden tekemiin IR-UWB- tutkimuksiin, myös olemassa olevien standardien fyysisten kerroksien määritykset koskien IR-UWB-teknologiaa ja tärkeimmät maailmanlaajuiset UWB-tekniikkaa koskevat signaalin tehotiheysmääräykset.

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Economics / Wayne Nafziger / This dissertation constructs three empirical essays. The first essay illustrates the causality on the relationship between output (GDP) growth and exports. By using the Modified Wald (MWald) test we observe unidirectional causality from exports to GDP. More specifically, for the robustness we use a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) model and the Generalized Impulse Response Function Analysis (GIRA). The VECM and the GIRA yield bidirectional causality between exports and GDP, which weakly supports the unidirectional result of the to MWald test. Meanwhile, we confirm that there is structure break by using the structural break test. These results are plausible and consistent with the expectations of our study for the Export Led Growth Hypothesis (ELGH). However, compared with previous studies on the ELGH for Korea, our results are different. Other studies show a bidirectional causality relationship but this study only has unidirectional causality. These differences may be caused from different observation data, various variables, and use of different econometric methodologies. Also, model selection and omitting variables can also significantly change the results of causality testing. The second essay investigates a degree of competition between Korea's and China's exports in the U.S. market by using the substitute elasticity on a simple demand model. The market share of Korean exports has been decreasing while that of China's has been increasing. The results of this study are as follows. First, we find that Korea has a dominant market share of only goods group code 27 in commodity groups over that of China, otherwise having China's dominant market shares over those of Korea for other export sections by using historical trade data. Second, most estimates of substitute elasticity between both countries' exports in the U.S. market are small (inelastic). However, 61 (apparel articles and accessories, knit or crochet), 62 (apparel articles and accessories, not knit etc) and 85 (electric machinery etc, sound equipments, TV equipment, parts) commodity groups' substitute elasticities are large (elastic) and are competitive in the U.S. market compared with those of China. A small value of the elasticity of substitution may be due to an identification problem for a simple standard model as well as measurement errors in prices as a unit value in this study. So, in order to avoid problems such as these, we may need to use appropriate instrumental or proxy variables in the simple standard model, which highly correlate with the independent (unit price) variables and are uncorrelated with measurement error terms. In practice, it is not easy to find good instrumental variables. The final essay evaluates the roles of price and income as important factors that affect Korea's exports by using the most recent monthly data. By using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach we find the long-run relationship of variables and estimate the long-run price and income elasticities. However, the estimates of these long-run elasticities are statistically insignificant. This may be due to some misspecifications or measurement errors in our model. Meanwhile, due to the existence of the long-run relationship between variables, we construct the Error Correction Model (ECM) in order to observe the short-run dynamics of the elasticities. Specifically, we add a dummy variable into our export demand model to achieve more efficient estimations since the dummy variable reflects a shock in Korea's export; Korea's economic crisis in 1997. In contrast to the long-run elasticity, we find that the short-run elasticities' estimates are more statistically significant. When we use the structure break test to check the structural stability of Korea's export demand, we find that there is no structural break point of 1997. Therefore, a shock of Korea's economic crisis in 1997 might not significantly affect Korea's export demand in a given sample. However, the Information Technology (IT) bubble of the world economy in 2001 and the entry of Korea into the OECD had triggered an increase in Korea's export demand due to existing structural break points of both events. In addition, we find that income elasticities are larger than price elasticities in the short run. This implies that income has more of an impact than that of price for the export demand model in the short run. This also implies that the change of Korea's exports in the short run is more sensitive to changes in foreign income (industrial production) compared with that of price (exchange rate). An interesting result, thus, is that Korea's exports in the short run may have higher export performance on income than that of price (exchange rate). This might be a consequence of the dependence of an increase in foreign income in recent years. In recent years, developing countries have greatly increased their economic growth compared with that of developed countries and Korea's exports have increased into these developing countries. Thus, we confirm that an increase in Korea's exports is mainly affected by income compared with price, specifically in the short run by using recent data.

Ce travail est consacré au développement de composés polyazotés de la famille des tétrazènes, pour des applications dans le domaine de la propulsion spatiale. Compte tenu de la forte toxicité des hydrazines utilisées actuellement dans les systèmes à biergols stockables, il devient absolument nécessaire de les remplacer par de nouveaux ergols verts, performants au niveau propulsion, et ne présentant pas d'impact significatif sur la santé humaine et l'environnement. Aujourd'hui, le candidat idéal pour remplacer les hydrazines spatiales n'a pas été identifié, mais un premier candidat a été proposé par le CNES en raison de ses performances théoriques et d'une toxicité moindre, il s'agit du 1,1,4,4-tétraméthyl-2-tétrazène (TMTZ). Dans cette thèse, une caractérisation complète de ce composé a été effectuée, afin de valider son intérêt en tant qu'ergol. Une étude cinétique et thermodynamique a permis de proposer un procédé de synthèse du TMTZ propre, performant en continu, intégrant les phases de synthèse, d'extraction et de purification. Pour aller plus loin dans cette démarche, de nouvelles cibles polyazotées ont été identifiées, dans le but d'atteindre des performances plus importantes en élaborant des structures tétrazènes plus riches en atomes d'azote que le TMTZ. Les différentes voies de synthèse de ces tétrazènes densifiés sont présentées, ainsi que la réactivité de leurs précurseurs potentiels. En appui de ces recherches, des outils théoriques et expérimentaux de prédiction et de détermination des performances énergétiques des composés polyazotés sont présentés / This work aims at the development of polynitrogen-based compounds of the tetrazene family for space propulsion applications. Due to the high toxicity of hydrazines used currently in stockable bipropellant systems, there is a need to replace them by new green propellants with high propulsion performance and low impact towards human health and the environment.So far, the ideal candidate to replace space-use hydrazines has not been identified. However, the French Space Agency (CNES) proposed a first candidate, namely, 1,1,4,4-tetramethyl-2-tetrazene (TMTZ), which has a high theoretical performance and exhibits lower toxicity. In this work the latter compound was fully characterized in order to validate its interest as a propellant. Kinetic and thermodynamic studies allowed to propose a continuous synthesis process for pure TMTZ, which involves a synthesis, an extraction and a purification steps. In this context, new polynitrogen-based target molecules were identified in order to achieve higher performances than TMTZ and tetrazene derivatives with a higher nitrogen content were synthesized. Herein, the different synthesis pathways of these tetrazene derivatives with higher density as well as the reactivity of their potential building blocks are presented. To complete the above research, theoretical and experimental methods for the prediction and measurement of the energetic performance of the polynitrogen-based compounds are also presented