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Yes / Temporal fault trees (TFTs), an extension of classical Boolean fault trees, can model time-dependent failure behaviour of dynamic systems. The methodologies used for quantitative analysis of TFTs include algebraic solutions, Petri nets (PN), and Bayesian networks (BN). In these approaches, precise failure data of components are usually used to calculate the probability of the top event of a TFT. However, it can be problematic to obtain these precise data due to the imprecise and incomplete information about the components of a system. In this paper, we propose a framework that combines intuitionistic fuzzy set theory and expert elicitation to enable quantitative analysis of TFTs of dynamic systems with uncertain data. Experts’ opinions are taken into account to compute the failure probability of the basic events of the TFT as intuitionistic fuzzy numbers. Subsequently, for the algebraic approach, the intuitionistic fuzzy operators for the logic gates of TFT are defined to quantify the TFT. On the other hand, for the quantification of TFTs via PN and BN-based approaches, the intuitionistic fuzzy numbers are defuzzified to be used in these approaches. As a result, the framework can be used with all the currently available TFT analysis approaches. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is illustrated via application to a practical system and through a comparison of the results of each approach. / This work was supported in part by the Mobile IOT: Location Aware project (grant no. MMUE/180025) and Indoor Internet of Things (IOT) Tracking Algorithm Development based on Radio Signal Characterisation project (grant no. FRGS/1/2018/TK08/MMU/02/1). This research also received partial support from DEIS H2020 project (grant no. 732242).

Safety risk assessment forms an integral part of the design and development of Safety Critical Systems. Conventionally in these systems, standards and policies have been developed to prescribe processes for safety risk assessment. These standards provide guidelines, references and structure to personnel involved in the risk assessment process. However, in some of these standards, the prescribed methods for safety decision making were found to be deficient in some respects. Two such deficiencies have been addressed in this thesis. First, when different safety metrics are required to be combined for a safety related decision, the current practices of using safety risk matrices were found to be inconsistent with the axioms of decision theory. Second, in the safety risk assessment process, when multiple experts are consulted to provide their judgment on the severity and/or likelihood of hazards, the standards were lacking detailed guidelines for aggregating experts' judgements. Such deficiencies could lead to misconceptions pertaining to the safety risk level of critical hazards. These misconceptions potentially give rise to inconsistent safety decisions that might ultimately result in catastrophic outcomes. This thesis addresses both these concerns present in SRM processes. For the problem of combining safety metrics, three potential approaches have been proposed. Normative Decision Analysis tools such as Utility Theory and Multi-attribute Utility Theory were proposed in the first and second approaches. The third approach proposes the use of a Multi-Objective Optimization technique - Pareto Analysis. For problems in Expert Aggregation, behavioral and mathematical solutions have been explored and the implications of using these methods for Safety Risk Assessment have been discussed. Two standard documents that contain the Safety Risk Management Processes of the Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) and the U.S. Navy were used to structure the case studies. This thesis has two main contributions. First, it evaluates the use of decision analysis in safety decision process of Safety Critical Systems. It provides guidelines to decision makers on how to meaningfully use and/or combine different safety metrics in the decision process. Second, it identifies the best practices and methods of aggregating expert assessments pertaining to safety decision making. / Master of Science / Safety risk assessment forms an important part of the design and development of Safety Critical Systems. Safety Critical Systems are those systems whose failure could potentially result in the loss of human life. Commonly in these systems, standards and policies have been developed to prescribe processes for safety risk assessment. These standards provide guidelines, references and structure to personnel involved in the risk assessment process. However, in some of these standards, the prescribed methods for safety decision making were found to be deficient in some respects. Two such deficiencies have been addressed in this thesis. First, when different safety metrics are required to be combined to provide information for a safety related decision, the current practices of the safety risk assessment do not yield consistent recommendations. Second, in the safety risk assessment process, often multiple experts are consulted to provide their judgment on the criticality of a potential safety risk of the system. The standards and policies that are currently being used, do not provide clear instructions on how to synthesize the judgements of multiple experts. This lack of clear guidelines could potentially lead to an incorrect final judgement on the criticality of the risk and ultimately result in choosing an improper method to reduce the safety risk. This thesis addresses both these concerns present in safety risk assessment process of Safety Critical Systems. For the problem of combining safety metrics, three approaches have been proposed. Two of the proposed approaches make use of normative decision analysis practices and therefore the recommendations reached using these methods will be consistent with the safety objective of the decision maker. The third approach makes use of a traditional concept called -Pareto Analysis which provides a visual method to analyze the advantages and drawbacks of a given safety concern for a system. For problems in combining the judgements of multiple experts a variety of methods was studied. The methods include group consensus and mathematical techniques and the implications of using these methods in safety risk assessment was discussed. The FAA and the U.S. Navy's standard documents and policies were used to frame the discussions. This thesis has two main contributions. First, it evaluates the use of Normative Decision Analysis methods in safety decision process of Safety Critical Systems. It provides guidelines to decision makers on how to meaningfully use and/or combine different safety metrics in the decision process. Second, it identifies the best practices and methods of aggregating expert assessments pertaining to safety decision making.

No / Multi-disciplinary team members predict each patient’s rehabilitation potential to maximise best use of resources. A lack of underpinning theory about rehabilitation potential makes it difficult to apply this concept in clinical practice. This study theorises about rehabilitation potential drawing on everyday decision-making by Health Care Professionals (HCPs) working in stroke rehabilitation services. Methods: A clinical scenario, checked for face validity, was used in two focus groups to explore meaning and practice around rehabilitation potential. Participants were 12 HCPs working across the stroke pathway. Groups were co-facilitated, audio-recorded and fully transcribed. Analysis paid attention to data grounded in first-hand experience, convergence within and across groups and constructed a conceptual overview of HCPs’ judgements about rehabilitation potential. Results: Rehabilitation potential is predicted by observations of “carry-over” and functional gain and managed differently across recovery trajectories. HCPs’ responses to rehabilitation potential judgements include prioritising workload, working around the system and balancing optimism and realism. Impacts for patients are streaming of rehabilitation intensity, rationing access to rehabilitation and a shifting emphasis between management and active rehabilitation. For staff, the emotional burden of judging rehabilitation potential is significant. Current service organisation restricts opportunities for feedback on the accuracy of previous judgements. Conclusion: Patients should have the opportunity to demonstrate rehabilitation potential by participation in therapy. As therapy resources are limited and responses to therapy may be context-dependent, early decisions about a lack of potential should not limit longer-term opportunities for rehabilitation. Services should develop strategies to enhance the quality of judgements through feedback to HCPs of longer-term patient outcomes.Implications for Rehabilitation Rehabilitation potential is judged at the level of individual patients (rather than population-based predictive models of rehabilitation outcome), draws on different sources of often experiential knowledge, and may be less than reliable. Decisions about rehabilitation potential may have far reaching consequences for individual patients, including the withdrawal of active rehabilitation in hospital or in the community and eventual care placement. A better understanding of what people mean by rehabilitation potential by all team members, and by patients and carers, may improve the quality of joint decision making and communication.

Esta dissertação apresenta a concepção de juízo político de Hannah Arendt. Afastando-se de uma leitura ortodoxa dos textos kantianos, Arendt vislumbra no juízo reflexionante estético de Kant a estrutura do juízo político. Em um constante diálogo com a obra kantiana a autora se apropria de vários conceitos, tanto conceitos constantes na Crítica da faculdade do juízo, que é a obra que ela afirma conter a verdadeira filosofia política de Kant, como conceitos de outras importantes obras kantianas. No decorrer deste texto, quando entendemos que ocorre uma apropriação conceitual buscamos situar minimamente o conceito no contexto da obra kantiana para compreendermos a concepção e o gesto interpretativo de Arendt. Através da análise de seus escritos mostramos como ela compreende o modo de funcionamento da faculdade humana de julgar os eventos políticos, por meio da exposição e discussão dos principais conceitos envolvidos em sua teoria. Assim, apresentamos as condições de possibilidade do juízo representadas pelas faculdades da imaginação e do senso comum, bem como as duas perspectivas pelas quais essa faculdade se manifesta no mundo público, o juízo do ator e o juízo do espectador. Depois, analisamos a conexão entre as faculdades de pensamento e juízo para extrair as implicações éticas da faculdade humana de julgar. Estas reflexões são uma tentativa de compreender como, para Arendt, opera a faculdade de julgar; por que ela considera esta faculdade a mais política das habilidades espirituais do homem, e qual é a relevância política desta atividade do espírito. / This dissertation presents the conception of Hannah Arendt’s political judgment. Moving away from an orthodox reading of Kantian texts, Arendt glimpses in the aesthetic reflective judgment of Kant, the structure of the political judgment. In one constant dialogue with Kantian Work the author appropriates several concepts, as concepts constant in the Critique of judgment, which is the Work that she affirms that contains the true Kant’s political philosophy, as concepts of other important Kantian Works. In elapsing of this text, when we understand that a conceptual appropriation occurs, we try to situate the concept in the context of the Kantian Work to understand Arendt’s conception and the interpretation gesture. Through the analysis of her writings we show as she understands the way of functioning of the human faculty to judge the political events, by the exposition and debate of the main involved concepts in her theory. So, we present the conditions of judgment possibility represented by the faculties of the imagination and the common sense, as well as the two perspectives for which manifests this faculty in the public world, the judgment of the actor and the judgment of the spectator. After that, we analyze the connection between the faculties of thought and judgment to extract the ethical implications of the human faculty to judge. These reflections are an attempt to understand how does the faculty of judge operate for Arendt; why does she consider this faculty the most political of men’s mental abilities, and what is the politic relevance of this spirit’s activity.

Esta dissertação apresenta a concepção de juízo político de Hannah Arendt. Afastando-se de uma leitura ortodoxa dos textos kantianos, Arendt vislumbra no juízo reflexionante estético de Kant a estrutura do juízo político. Em um constante diálogo com a obra kantiana a autora se apropria de vários conceitos, tanto conceitos constantes na Crítica da faculdade do juízo, que é a obra que ela afirma conter a verdadeira filosofia política de Kant, como conceitos de outras importantes obras kantianas. No decorrer deste texto, quando entendemos que ocorre uma apropriação conceitual buscamos situar minimamente o conceito no contexto da obra kantiana para compreendermos a concepção e o gesto interpretativo de Arendt. Através da análise de seus escritos mostramos como ela compreende o modo de funcionamento da faculdade humana de julgar os eventos políticos, por meio da exposição e discussão dos principais conceitos envolvidos em sua teoria. Assim, apresentamos as condições de possibilidade do juízo representadas pelas faculdades da imaginação e do senso comum, bem como as duas perspectivas pelas quais essa faculdade se manifesta no mundo público, o juízo do ator e o juízo do espectador. Depois, analisamos a conexão entre as faculdades de pensamento e juízo para extrair as implicações éticas da faculdade humana de julgar. Estas reflexões são uma tentativa de compreender como, para Arendt, opera a faculdade de julgar; por que ela considera esta faculdade a mais política das habilidades espirituais do homem, e qual é a relevância política desta atividade do espírito. / This dissertation presents the conception of Hannah Arendt’s political judgment. Moving away from an orthodox reading of Kantian texts, Arendt glimpses in the aesthetic reflective judgment of Kant, the structure of the political judgment. In one constant dialogue with Kantian Work the author appropriates several concepts, as concepts constant in the Critique of judgment, which is the Work that she affirms that contains the true Kant’s political philosophy, as concepts of other important Kantian Works. In elapsing of this text, when we understand that a conceptual appropriation occurs, we try to situate the concept in the context of the Kantian Work to understand Arendt’s conception and the interpretation gesture. Through the analysis of her writings we show as she understands the way of functioning of the human faculty to judge the political events, by the exposition and debate of the main involved concepts in her theory. So, we present the conditions of judgment possibility represented by the faculties of the imagination and the common sense, as well as the two perspectives for which manifests this faculty in the public world, the judgment of the actor and the judgment of the spectator. After that, we analyze the connection between the faculties of thought and judgment to extract the ethical implications of the human faculty to judge. These reflections are an attempt to understand how does the faculty of judge operate for Arendt; why does she consider this faculty the most political of men’s mental abilities, and what is the politic relevance of this spirit’s activity.

Esta dissertação apresenta a concepção de juízo político de Hannah Arendt. Afastando-se de uma leitura ortodoxa dos textos kantianos, Arendt vislumbra no juízo reflexionante estético de Kant a estrutura do juízo político. Em um constante diálogo com a obra kantiana a autora se apropria de vários conceitos, tanto conceitos constantes na Crítica da faculdade do juízo, que é a obra que ela afirma conter a verdadeira filosofia política de Kant, como conceitos de outras importantes obras kantianas. No decorrer deste texto, quando entendemos que ocorre uma apropriação conceitual buscamos situar minimamente o conceito no contexto da obra kantiana para compreendermos a concepção e o gesto interpretativo de Arendt. Através da análise de seus escritos mostramos como ela compreende o modo de funcionamento da faculdade humana de julgar os eventos políticos, por meio da exposição e discussão dos principais conceitos envolvidos em sua teoria. Assim, apresentamos as condições de possibilidade do juízo representadas pelas faculdades da imaginação e do senso comum, bem como as duas perspectivas pelas quais essa faculdade se manifesta no mundo público, o juízo do ator e o juízo do espectador. Depois, analisamos a conexão entre as faculdades de pensamento e juízo para extrair as implicações éticas da faculdade humana de julgar. Estas reflexões são uma tentativa de compreender como, para Arendt, opera a faculdade de julgar; por que ela considera esta faculdade a mais política das habilidades espirituais do homem, e qual é a relevância política desta atividade do espírito. / This dissertation presents the conception of Hannah Arendt’s political judgment. Moving away from an orthodox reading of Kantian texts, Arendt glimpses in the aesthetic reflective judgment of Kant, the structure of the political judgment. In one constant dialogue with Kantian Work the author appropriates several concepts, as concepts constant in the Critique of judgment, which is the Work that she affirms that contains the true Kant’s political philosophy, as concepts of other important Kantian Works. In elapsing of this text, when we understand that a conceptual appropriation occurs, we try to situate the concept in the context of the Kantian Work to understand Arendt’s conception and the interpretation gesture. Through the analysis of her writings we show as she understands the way of functioning of the human faculty to judge the political events, by the exposition and debate of the main involved concepts in her theory. So, we present the conditions of judgment possibility represented by the faculties of the imagination and the common sense, as well as the two perspectives for which manifests this faculty in the public world, the judgment of the actor and the judgment of the spectator. After that, we analyze the connection between the faculties of thought and judgment to extract the ethical implications of the human faculty to judge. These reflections are an attempt to understand how does the faculty of judge operate for Arendt; why does she consider this faculty the most political of men’s mental abilities, and what is the politic relevance of this spirit’s activity.

Der wiederholte Kontakt mit einem neutralen Stimulus kann nach Zajonc (1968) zu einer Einstellungsverbesserung führen. Insbesondere die Häufigkeit der Exposition wurde intensiv untersucht und stellt eine zentrale Größe für den Mere Exposure Effect (MEE) dar. Uneindeutige Ergebnisse liegen dagegen für die Expositionsdauer vor (Bornstein, 1989). In einem Online-Experiment mit gemischtem Design (N=105) wurde der Einfluss der Gesamtdauer auf den MEE in Abhängigkeit von der Aufmerksamkeit untersucht. Die Aufmerksamkeitsmanipulation erfolgte im Sinne des Paradigmas von Betsch et al. (2010), durch eine Tastendruckbedingung, wodurch die Zeitverarbeitung gesteigert werden sollte. In den Ergebnissen zeigte sich kein Interaktionseffekt zwischen Gesamtdauer und Aufmerksamkeit. Außerdem konnte der Effekt des bloßen Kontakts nicht eindeutig identifiziert werden. Die höchste Anzahl sowie die längste Dauer der Exposition waren jedoch mit der stärksten Stimuluspräferenz assoziiert. Für die Aufmerksamkeit zeigte sich eine Einflusstendenz auf den untersuchten Effekt. Das Ergebnis einer Nebenhypothese deutet außerdem auf eine Bedeutung des Persönlichkeitsmerkmals Neurotizismus im MEE hin.:Zusammenfassung Abstract 1 Einleitung 2 Theorie 2.1 Mere Exposure Effect 2.1.1 Definition und Historie 2.1.2 Affective Primacy Model 2.1.3 Representation-Matching Model 2.1.4 Relevante Ergebnisse und Einflussfaktoren 2.2 Verarbeitung von Zeit und Häufigkeit 2.2.1 Definition und Merkmale 2.2.2 Relevante Forschungsergebnisse 2.3 Theoretische Ableitung der Hypothesen 3 Methodische Vorgehensweise 3.1 Rekrutierung und Stichprobe 3.2 Versuchsdesign 3.2.1 Unabhängige Variablen 3.2.2 Abhängige Variable 3.3 Material und Skalen 3.4 Umsetzung 3.5 Durchführung und Ablauf 3.6 Empirische Hypothesen 3.7 Auswertung und statistische Verfahren 3.8 Vorstudie 3.9 A-priori Poweranalyse 4 Ergebnisse 4.1 Deskriptive Statistik 4.2 Überprüfung der Aufmerksamkeitsmanipulation 4.3 Testung der Hypothesen 4.4 Zusätzliche Analysen 5 Diskussion 5.1 Interpretation der Ergebnisse 5.2 Einordnung der Ergebnisse 5.3 Limitationen und Probleme 5.4 Forschungsausblick 5.5 Fazit 6 Literaturverzeichnis Anhang / Repeated exposure to neutral stimuli is associated with an increase in preference (Zajonc, 1968). While the frequency of exposures is extensively researched and was found to be relevant in the mere exposure effect, the data for exposure duration is far from conclusive (Bornstein, 1989). In this study, a mixed design was used in an online-experiment (N=105) to investigate the relationship between total duration and stimulus preference depending on attentional variation. The manipulation of attention followed the paradigm of Betsch et al. (2010), in which pressing a key while the stimulus is being presented increased attention and therefore temporal processing. The results showed no interaction between total duration of exposure and attention. Moreover, there was no correlational effect of mere exposure found in this study. But both the most frequent exposure as well as the longest total duration condition where associated with the highest affective rating. In the absence of statistical significance, attention was related to the MEE. The testing of a secondary hypothesis revealed a possible importance of neuroticism in the liking of familiar versus unfamiliar stimuli.:Zusammenfassung Abstract 1 Einleitung 2 Theorie 2.1 Mere Exposure Effect 2.1.1 Definition und Historie 2.1.2 Affective Primacy Model 2.1.3 Representation-Matching Model 2.1.4 Relevante Ergebnisse und Einflussfaktoren 2.2 Verarbeitung von Zeit und Häufigkeit 2.2.1 Definition und Merkmale 2.2.2 Relevante Forschungsergebnisse 2.3 Theoretische Ableitung der Hypothesen 3 Methodische Vorgehensweise 3.1 Rekrutierung und Stichprobe 3.2 Versuchsdesign 3.2.1 Unabhängige Variablen 3.2.2 Abhängige Variable 3.3 Material und Skalen 3.4 Umsetzung 3.5 Durchführung und Ablauf 3.6 Empirische Hypothesen 3.7 Auswertung und statistische Verfahren 3.8 Vorstudie 3.9 A-priori Poweranalyse 4 Ergebnisse 4.1 Deskriptive Statistik 4.2 Überprüfung der Aufmerksamkeitsmanipulation 4.3 Testung der Hypothesen 4.4 Zusätzliche Analysen 5 Diskussion 5.1 Interpretation der Ergebnisse 5.2 Einordnung der Ergebnisse 5.3 Limitationen und Probleme 5.4 Forschungsausblick 5.5 Fazit 6 Literaturverzeichnis Anhang