To handle uncertainties and variabilities in production demands, many manufacturing companies have adopted different strategies, such as varying quoted lead time, rejecting orders, increasing stock or inventory levels, and implementing volume flexibility. Make-to-stock (MTS) systems are designed to offer zero lead time by providing an inventory buffer for the organizations, but they are costly and involve risks such as obsolescence and wasted expenditures. The main concern of make-to-order (MTO) systems is eliminating inventories and reducing the non-value-added processes and wastes; however, these systems are based on the assumption that the manufacturing environments and customers' demand are deterministic. Research shows that in MTO systems variability and uncertainty in the demand levels causes instability in the production flow, resulting in congestion in the production flow, long lead times, and low throughput. Neither strategy is wholly satisfactory. A new alternative approach, multi-channel manufacturing (MCM) systems are designed to manage uncertainties and variabilities in demands by first focusing on customers' response time. The products are divided into different product families, each with its own manufacturing stream or sub-factory. MCM also allocates the production capacity needed in each sub-factory to produce each product family. In this research, the performance of an MCM system is studied by implementing MCM in a real case scenario from textile industry modeled via discrete event simulation. MTS and MTO systems are implemented for the same case scenario and the results are studied and compared. The variables of interest for this research are the throughput of products, the level of on-time deliveries, and the inventory level. The results conducted from the simulation experiments favor the simulated MCM system for all mentioned criteria. Further research activities, such as applying MCM to different manufacturing contexts, is highly recommended.

Studien har genomförts på ett företag inom fakturaservice. För att arbeta proaktivt med förbättring av fakturaprocessen har syftet med studien varit att undersöka om det fanns något samband mellan olika målgrupper av slutkunder och utebliven betalning inom ett visst kundsegment. Teorier inom ämnet kvalitetsteknik har använts med utgångspunkt inom offensiv kvalitetsutveckling, processer och processledning.Studien har en kvalitativ forskningsdesign och genomfördes som en fallstudie. Intervjuer, granskning av dokument och insamling av rådata från företagets affärssystem utgjorde studiens datainsamlingsmetoder. Genom beskrivande statistik och histogram analyserades data där målgruppernas medelvärden jämfördes för att identifiera variation i processen. Resultatet visar att det finns ett starkt samband mellan målgrupperna B2B, postalt leveranssätt och åldersgruppen 66+ som alla har en stark negativ påverkan på processens ledtid.Resultatet visar även att digitalt leveranssätt har en stark positiv påverkan på processens ledtid. En viss skillnad finns mellan man och kvinna där än har fler obetalda fakturor än kvinnor. Studiens slutsatser är att förbättra delprocessen för postalt leveranssätt genom att rikta in sig på målgrupperna B2B och 66+ för att skapa en positiv påverkan på processens ledtid. / The study has been carried out at a company within invoice services. In order to work proactively with the improvement of the invoice process, the purpose of the study has been to investigate whether there was any connection between different target groups of end customers and non-payment within a certain customer segment. Theories within the subject of quality engineering have been used with a starting point in offensive quality development, processes and process management.The study has a qualitative research design and was conducted as a case study. Interviews, review of documents and collection of raw data from the company's business system constituted the study's data collection methods. Through descriptive statistics and histograms, the data was analyzed where the average values of the target groups were compared to identify variation in the process. The result shows that there is a strong connection between the target groups B2B, postal delivery method and the age group 66+, all of which have a strong negative impact on the process lead time.The result also shows that the digital delivery method has a strong positive impact on the process's lead time. There is a certain difference between men and women where than have more unpaid invoices than women. The study's conclusions are to improve the postal delivery mode sub-process by targeting the B2B and 66+ target groups to create a positive impact on the process' lead time.

In a world driven by technological advancements and ever-changing consumer preferences, large-scale custom-driven development projects have emerged as the gateway to creating complex products and systems tailored to individual customer needs. Steering these projects to successful completion presents significant challenges, with lead time deviations being a key concern. This study investigates an industrial defense corporation's current product development process to examine systematic factors that negatively impact lead time. Therefore, semi-structured interviews wereconducted with eight interview persons with the primarily aim to identify and classify these systematic factors into three organizationalperspectives providing a comprehensive understanding of their implications.  These perspectives revealed how systematic factors shaped initial project planning expectations and potential consequences, based on the organization's priorities. Additionally, the study emphasizes the need for a flexible risk-reducing reactive project model to mitigate lead time deviations stemming from the company's existing project model. Lastly, the study reveals that large-scale custom-driven development projects require careful consideration of trade-offs related to multi-project management and resource allocation. Companies must make decisions regarding whether to prioritize efficent project execution or winning business deals.

Exploateringsområdet Barkarbystaden är Nordens nuvarande största pågående exploateringsprojekt. Här väntas 14 000 nya bostäder vara klara till 2032. En beräknad mängd på ca 488 000 leveranser förväntas under byggtiden. Under denna byggtid verkar flera kvarter och olika byggherrar samtidigt. För att lyckas hantera allt detta ställs ett stort fokus på en fungerande logistiklösning med bra planering och framförhållning.Syftet med arbetet är att undersöka hur logistiklösningar påverkar produktionens effektivitet genom att undersöka och studera hur leveransplaneringen i Barkarbystaden fungerar. Målsättningen med arbetet är att komma fram till data och studier som bidrar till en effektivare och mer lönsam produktion i Barkarbystaden och för byggbranschen i helhet.Frågeställningarna examensarbetet utgår ifrån är följande: Hur skiljer sig leveransplaneringen gentemot det verkliga utfallet, hur har entreprenören anpassat leveransplaneringen och hur kan logistikplaneringen förbättras?För att uppnå ett resultat som besvarar examensarbetets frågeställningar har det genomförts intervjuer, en litteraturstudie samt en fallstudie. Examensarbetet är genomfört i samarbete med företaget Prolog som är involverade i logistiklösningen på projektet Barkarbystaden. Prolog har givit arbetet möjligheten att komma i kontakt med relevanta nyckelpersoner för intervjuer samt delat med sig av kunskap om projektet Barkarbystaden som varit till nytta för att genomföra fallstudien.Fallstudien resulterade i att planerad ledtid är nästan fyra gånger längre än den faktiska ledtiden. Vid mätningarna noterades klockslaget när transporterna anlände och när de lämnade. 39% av leveranserna lämnar efter planerad avfärdstid.Logistiklösningen i Barkarbystaden är endast dryga ett år gammal och är inte för alla entreprenörer ett tidigare känt arbetssätt. Entreprenörerna har haft olika stora utmaningar när det gäller att anpassa sig till logistiklösningen. Vissa entreprenörer ser utmaningar med ett annat arbetssätt men det blir med tiden. Entreprenörer som jobbat med liknande logistiklösningar på andra projekt har en fördel när de ska anpassa sig till Barkarbystadens logistiklösning.Logistikansvariga bör bli mer noggranna när dom bokar in respektive leverans med avseende på vad det är för transport och lossningsmetod som ska användas. Samt att korta ned den planerade ledtiden i bokingssystemet. Då skillnaden var markant mellan planerad respektive faktisk ledtid.Vid kontraktsskrivning mellan entreprenör och leverantör bör entreprenören kravställa att de ankommer inom angivet lossningsfönster och reglera konsekvenserna av för sen ankomst parterna sinsemellan. / The Barkarbystaden development area is the Nordic countries currently largest ongoing development project. Here, 14,000 new homes are expected to be ready by 2032. An estimated amount of approximately 488,000 deliveries is expected during the construction period. During this construction period, several blocks and different contractors operate simultaneously. In order to succeed in handling all this, great focus is placed on a working logistics solution with good planning and foresight.The purpose of the work is to investigate how logistics solutions affect production efficiency by examining and studying how delivery planning in Barkarbystaden works. The aim of the bachelor’s thesis is to obtain data and studies that contribute to a more efficient and profitable production in Barkarbystaden and for the construction industry as a whole.The questions the degree project is based on are the following: How does the delivery planning differ from the actual outcome; how has the contractor adapted the delivery planning and how can the logistics planning be improved?In order to achieve a result that answers the bachelor’s thesis questions; interviews, a literature study and a case study were conducted. The bachelor’s thesis has been carried out in collaboration with the company Prolog, which is involved in the logistics solution for the Barkarbystaden project. Prologue has given the work the opportunity to get in touch with relevant key people for interviews and shared knowledge about the Barkarbystaden project that has been useful for conducting the case study.The case study resulted in the planned lead time being almost four times longer than the actual lead time. During the measurements, the time was noted when the transports arrived and when they left. 39% of deliveries leave after the planned departure time.The logistics solution in Barkarbystaden is only just over a year old and is not a previously known way of working for all contractors. This means that the contractors have had various challenges when it comes to adapting to the logistics solution. Where some have said that from the beginning it was difficult with a different way of working but that it got better and better with time. While some of the respondents said that they had worked with a similar logistics solution on previous projects, which obviously means an advantage when they have to adapt to Barkarbystaden's logistics solution.Logistics managers should be more careful when booking lead times for each delivery. By careful it is meant that logistics managers should take more account of what kind of transport and unloading method is to be used and to generally shorten the planned lead time in the booking system. This is because the difference was significant between the planned and actual lead time. When writing a contract between contractor and supplier, the contractor should require them to arrive within the specified unloading window and regulate the consequences of late arrival between the parties.

Purpose – Globalization affects all producing companies with increased complexity in production, stock management and never ending customer demands. The customers of today have a greater range of suppliers than before with even more products to choose from which puts the customer in a strong position. One of many important subjects that companies need to work with to keep their competitiveness strong against each other is to work with continuous improvements in production- and inventory management. This study therefore reviews tied up capital in stock and suggest adequate procedures, which could be applied to decrease the tied up capital.   Method –In order to fulfil the purpose a case study is conducted. Two central research questions are chosen for the study to investigate in a case company. The data collected contains of secondary data, observations and interviews. To accomplish the purpose a theoretical framework has been put together.   Findings – Reducing variations in production and re-designing of the daily production plan is presented as the two procedures with the purpose to achieve a decrease in tied up capital for stock kept units. The study describes these two procedures in general in order to make the solution applicable into various manufacturing company. Further the study claims that gaining flow efficiency should be prioritized instead of resource efficiency, which could be accomplished by the two procedures.    Implications – The study contributes to verifying production theories, foremost about variations in production, Lean manufacturing and the technique of Lead-time mapping.   Limitations – In order to apply the procedures with precision and efficiency some further data and extended studies needs to be performed. This study is performed in a generalizing point of view, which may influence the results.  The study does not capture every aspect of affecting circumstances that might be needed for a successful implementation of suggested procedures.   Keywords – Tied up capital, Lead-time, Lean, Lead-time mapping, Variations, Flow efficiency, Postponement, Just-in-Time, Make-to-stock and Make-to-order. / Syfte – Globaliseringen har gjort att kunden har ett högre utbud att välja mellan och kan därmed ställa högre krav på tillverkande verksamheter. För att fortsatt vara konkurrenskraftig måste verksamheter ständigt utveckla den interna produktion- och materialstyrningen. Studiens ämnar därmed undersöka orsaken till uppkomsten av bundet kapital i lager samt finna potentiella åtgärder som kan vidtas inom verksamheten för att på ett hållbart sätt minska bundet kapital i lager.   Metod – För att uppfylla studiens syfte tillämpas fallstudie. Studien utgår från två frågeställningar som besvaras med hjälp av data från ett fallföretag. Data som samlas är hämtad från sekundärdata, observationer och intervjuer. Därtill har ett teoretiskt ramverk upprättats vilken studien utgår ifrån.   Resultat – Minska variationer samt utförande av en mer detaljerad planering presenteras som studiens två åtgärdsförslag för att minska bundet kapital i lager. Studien beskriver övergripande potentiella tillvägagångssätt för att åstadkomma förslagen. Studien konstaterar att flödeseffektivitet med fördel bör prioriteras framför resurseffektiviteten i verksamheten, vilket uppfylls med hjälp av åtgärdsförslagen.   Implikationer – Studien bidrar inte till nya teorier men verifierar befintliga teorier främst kring variationer i tillverkning, Lean och ledtidskartläggning.   Begränsningar – För att åtgärdsförslagen i studiens resultat ska kunna tillämpas krävs ytterligare data och fördjupade studier för att garantera att samtliga aspekter ska fångas in samt att orsak och påverkan av åtgärderna ska kunna kartläggas. Studien bygger på generaliserande antaganden vilket ger ett generaliserat resultat.   Nyckelord – Lean, Ledtid, Ledtidskartläggning, Variationer, Flödeseffektivitet, Senareläggning, Just-in-Time, Make-to-order och Bundet kapital.

Ericsson has recently experienced difficulties to meet the customer demand, which has led to lost market shares. This is mainly due to the long and unpredictable lead times within their supply chains. Therefore, Ericsson seeks to increase their ability to meet the customer demand by reducing the customer order lead time. A shorter lead time would imply a greater responsiveness and improved service level towards the customers. A directive from the company was to base the study on the supply chain for the customer Algeria Telecom Mobile. The purpose of the study is to give recommendations for improvements that reduce the total lead time in a supply chain perspective in order to improve the customer service level.  To be able to fulfill the purpose, four objectives were distinguished and supported with existing frameworks for analyzing supply chains. The first step was to create a current state map, which was achieved by conducting 24 interviews with people working within the supply chain. The second step was to identify potentials for lead time reduction. This was done by categorizing the supply chain parts and the problems that were gathered during the current state mapping into meaningful groups, and thereafter prioritize the categories with the greatest potential. The third step was to generate alternative solutions by conducting a second literature review based on the potentials that was identified during the prior step. The general solutions were later modified in order to fit the current supply chain. It resulted in eight Ericsson specific solutions. The fourth step was to evaluate these solutions in combination, which led to a recommended combination of solutions that provided the greatest lead time reduction. Also the requirements for implementing these solutions were presented in this step.  The recommendation for Ericsson is to rearrange their current supply chain for the studied customer and use two different supply chains; the Regional supply chain and the Alternative supply chain. The two arrangements will both be based on the implementation of a supply hub, which implies a movement of the customer order decoupling point closer to the customer. The Regional supply chain will cover the main flow and be used when the customer orders products from a product portfolio that has been agreed within the region. The Alternative supply chain will act as a complement and cover the flow of products outside the regional product portfolio.   The estimated customer order lead time for the Regional supply chain is 17 days, which is a reduction of 80 % in the normal case for the studied supply chain. The lead time for the Alternative supply chain is more difficult to estimate precisely, but it will be reduced in comparison with the current situation. Moreover, the service level towards the customer will be increased for both the Regional and the Alternative supply chain. To summarize the recommendations that are forwarded to Ericsson, they are listed below:  <li data-listid="34" data-aria-posinset="15" data-aria-level="1">Implement a regional supply hub  <li data-listid="34" data-aria-posinset="15" data-aria-level="1">Agree on a regional product portfolio  <li data-listid="34" data-aria-posinset="15" data-aria-level="1">Implement time slots for inbound flows  <li data-listid="34" data-aria-posinset="15" data-aria-level="1">Use BPO as a payment method instead of Letter of Credit  <li data-listid="34" data-aria-posinset="15" data-aria-level="1">Use a CIP, DAP or DAT Incoterm  <li data-listid="34" data-aria-posinset="15" data-aria-level="1">Implement a product configurator and let the customer place orders on commercial descriptions or a solution id.  <li data-listid="34" data-aria-posinset="15" data-aria-level="1">Integrate processes and activities throughout the supply chain and establish a greater information exchange.

Background: Great strides have been made in combating malaria, however, the indicators in sub Saharan Africa still do not show promise for elimination in the near future as malaria infections still result in high morbidity and mortality among children. The abundance of the malaria-transmitting mosquito vectors in these regions are driven by climate suitability. In order to achieve malaria elimination by 2030, strengthening of surveillance systems have been advocated. Based on malaria surveillance and climate monitoring, forecasting models may be developed for early warnings. Therefore, in this thesis, we strived to illustrate the use malaria surveillance and climate data for policy and decision making by assessing the association between weather variability (from ground and remote sensing sources) and malaria mortality, and by building malaria admission forecasting models. We further propose an economic framework for integrating forecasts into operational surveillance system for evidence based decisionmaking and resource allocation.  Methods: The studies were based in Asembo, Gem and Karemo areas of the KEMRI/CDC Health and Demographic Surveillance System in Western Kenya. Lagged association of rainfall and temperature with malaria mortality was modeled using general additive models, while distributed lag non-linear models were used to explore relationship between remote sensing variables, land surface temperature(LST), normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI) and rainfall on weekly malaria mortality. General additive models, with and without boosting, were used to develop malaria admissions forecasting models for lead times one to three months. We developed a framework for incorporating forecast output into economic evaluation of response strategies at different lead times including uncertainties. The forecast output could either be an alert based on a threshold, or absolute predicted cases. In both situations, interventions at each lead time could be evaluated by the derived net benefit function and uncertainty incorporated by simulation.  Results: We found that the environmental factors correlated with malaria mortality with varying latencies. In the first paper, where we used ground weather data, the effect of mean temperature was significant from lag of 9 weeks, with risks higher for mean temperatures above 250C. The effect of cumulative precipitation was delayed and began from 5 weeks. Weekly total rainfall of more than 120 mm resulted in increased risk for mortality. In the second paper, using remotely sensed data, the effect of precipitation was consistent in the three areas, with increasing effect with weekly total rainfall of over 40 mm, and then declined at 80 mm of weekly rainfall. NDVI below 0.4 increased the risk of malaria mortality, while day LST above 350C increased the risk of malaria mortality with shorter lags for high LST weeks. The lag effect of precipitation was more delayed for precipitation values below 20 mm starting at week 5 while shorter lag effect for higher precipitation weeks. The effect of higher NDVI values above 0.4 were more delayed and protective while shorter lag effect for NDVI below 0.4. For all the lead times, in the malaria admissions forecasting modelling in the third paper, the boosted regression models provided better prediction accuracy. The economic framework in the fourth paper presented a probability function of the net benefit of response measures, where the best response at particular lead time corresponded to the one with the highest probability, and absolute value, of a net benefit surplus.  Conclusion: We have shown that lagged relationship between environmental variables and malaria health outcomes follow the expected biological mechanism, where presentation of cases follow the onset of specific weather conditions and climate variability. This relationship guided the development of predictive models showcased with the malaria admissions model. Further, we developed an economic framework connecting the forecasts to response measures in situations with considerable uncertainties. Thus, the thesis work has contributed to several important components of early warning systems including risk assessment; utilizing surveillance data for prediction; and a method to identifying cost-effective response strategies. We recommend economic evaluation becomes standard in implementation of early warning system to guide long-term sustainability of such health protection programs.

Business Administration, Business Process and Supply Chain Management Degree Project (master), 15 higher education points, 4FE06E, Spring 2013 Authors: Jeremy Bellina, Olegs Bodins, Soeren Krieger and Mathilde Olivier Tutor: Roger Stokkedal Title: Managing Upstream Supply Chain in Order to Decrease Inventory Level: A Case Study on the Paper Merchant Papyrus Sweden. Background: The research is based on Papyrus Sweden, a paper merchant, which is facing a decrease in the demand of paper products. It was identified that inventory level reduction is now crucial for the company in order to stay in the market. Therefore, Papyrus Sweden is focused on inventory level and tied-up capital reduction in order to decrease costs and increase net profit. Purpose: This thesis aims to analyze the current situation in Papyrus Sweden in terms of inventory level and activities related to suppliers, and prepare recommendations which could help Papyrus Sweden to reduce its inventory level. Method: The data has been collected through interviews with managers from the supply chain department as well as through a data sample from Papyrus Sweden database given to the researchers. All data was analyzed and compared with the literature review. Data received from the database was processed and transformed in Microsoft Excel in order to make the analysis. Results: The analysis identifies issues in material planning methods, safety stock calculation, ABC-XYZ classification and forecast calculation, on which Papyrus Sweden could act in order to decrease its inventory level. Furthermore, the researchers identify two solutions Papyrus Sweden could implement with its suppliers in order to reduce inventory level which are a Service Level Agreement and a Vendor Managed Inventory system. Keywords: inventory level, material planning method, safety stock, ABC-XYZ classification, forecast calculation, replenishment lead time, supplier relationship, information sharing, Service Level Agreement (SLA), Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI) and Collaborative planning, forecast and replenishment system (CPFR).

While varies of supply chains are working on moving products towardsthe end consumers, there is also an increasing amount of productsbeing sent back. This has meant an increasing importance of the returnmanagement process. As many businesses have realized that the returnprocess has little connection with their core value, the idea ofoutsourcing return management crossed the mind of many companies.Third-party logistics (3PL) provider have also sensed the opportunityand begun to explore the possibility of providing such services forcompanies in need.

Face à un environnement incertain et une internationalisation croissante de la chaîne logistique, la planification industrielle et commerciale (PIC) permet d’adapter efficacement les capacités industrielles à la demande du marché. Dans cette étude, nous présentons un modèle original de PIC utilisant des contraintes de flexibilité, pour améliorer la coordination entre les fonctions commerciales et logistiques. Un premier modèle de simulation permet d’étudier la dynamique du système ainsi que l’impact des différents paramètres sur les performances en termes de coûts et de satisfaction client. Afin d’étudier les politiques optimales, nous proposons un nouveau modèle de simulation-optimisation multi objectif. Différentes méthodes d’optimisation sont comparées, et plusieurs recommandations sont émises pour l’implémentation pratique de notre solution. Enfin, nous comparons les performances de plusieurs politiques de gestion des stocks lorsqu’elles sont couplées avec notre méthode de PIC flexible. À partir de données réelles du constructeur automobile Renault, nous présentons une étude comparative détaillée. Nous proposons plusieurs préconisations pratiques sur le type de politiques à privilégier selon les caractéristiques du système. Ces travaux de recherche sont particulièrement pertinents et applicables à d’autres industries confrontées à de fortes exigences commerciales,une faible visibilité sur la demande future et des approvisionnements longs. / Face to uncertain environment and growing globalization of the supply chains, the salesand operations planning (S&OP) aims to adapt efficiently the industrial capacities to themarket demand. In this research, we present an original S&OP model that uses flexibilityconstraints to improve the coordination between sales and logistics functions. A first simulationmodel is developed to study the system dynamics and the impact of different parameters onsystem’s performance in terms of costs and customer satisfaction. We introduce a multiobjectivesimulation-optimization model to investigate the optimal policies. Several optimization methodsare compared and recommendations are given for the practical implementation of our solution.Then, we compare the performances of several policies for managing parts inventories whenthey are coupled with our flexible S&OP. Based on real data of the automobile manufacturerRenault, we present a detailed comparative study. We present several managerial insights on thetype of policies to favor depending on the system characteristics. This research is particularlyrelevant for other industries that face strict customer requirements, uncertain demand and longprocurement lead time.