This thesis aims to identify main driving market risk factors of different strategies implemented by hedge funds by looking at correlation coefficients, implementing Principal Component Analysis and analyzing "loadings" for first three principal components, which explain the largest portion of the variation of hedge funds' returns. In the next step, a stepwise regression through iteration process includes and excludes market risk factors for each strategy, searching for the combination of risk factors which will offer a model with the best "fit", based on The Akaike Information Criterion - AIC and Bayesian Information Criterion - BIC. Lastly, to avoid counterfeit results and overcome model uncertainty issues a Bayesian Model Average - BMA approach was taken. Key words: Hedge Funds, hedge funds' strategies, market risk, principal component analysis, stepwise regression, Akaike Information Criterion, Bayesian Information Criterion, Bayesian Model Averaging Author's e-mail: aleksaradosavcevic@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail: mp.princ@seznam.cz

This diploma thesis deals with external audit of banks in Czech Republic. The main objective of this thesis is to describe in detail the techniques, strategy and methods which are used by the external auditor during the engagement and to compare them with those used in internal audit. The main emphasis during the stage of interim audit is put on control of risk management activities. The first part of this diploma thesis is devoted to theoretical issues and legal aspects of audit profession. Specific characteristics of banking institutions audit including major risks and the scope of external auditor's activities are described in the second chapter of the thesis. Third part describes the main stages, used methodology and the process of external audit of banking institutions. Last chapter is devoted to a brief description of the internal auditor's activities in the bank and their comparison with the external audit.

The goal of my thesis "Audit of a bank" is to identify and describe the area of external and internal audit in banking and to focus on specifics of bank audit in comparison to external audit of commercial enterprise. The first part is focused on audit of financial statements. In the second part are described the specifics of banking segment. Third part describes internal audit and cooperation between external and internal audit. In the last part there are described methods applied during the audit of the bank.

This diploma thesis introduces the measures of network connectedness in the context of asset pricing. It proposes an asset pricing model in which the factor of connectedness is included as one of the risk factors together with the three Fama-French factors. The goal of the analysis is to examine whether the con- nectedness represents a signifcant risk factor that should be considered while determining the risk premium of the portfolio in diferent sectors in the market. Using the realized volatilities and returns of 496 assets of SP 500 index over the period 2005 - 2018, that are divided into 11 sectors, we frstly determine the linkages of connectedness between the assets in the same sector. Applying Fama-MacBeth two-step regression model, we explore the signifcance of the connectedness factor for the determination of the risk premium. We argue that the sector overall connectedness represents a signifcant risk in most of the sec- tors and should be therefore taken into account by the investors in all sectors. Moreover, the total directional connectedness that captures the spillover of shocks to one asset from the other assets in the sector, is a signifcant risk fac- tor that should increase the risk premium of the portfolio, especially in sectors such as the fnancial, health care, consumer...

Since the financial crisis of 2008, the risk awareness has increased in the -financial sector. Companies are regulated with regards to risk exposure. These regulations are driven by the Basel Committee that formulates broad supervisory standards, guidelines and recommends statements of best practice in banking supervision. In these regulations companies are regulated with own funds requirements for market risks. This thesis constructs an internal model for risk management that, according to the "Capital Requirements Regulation" (CRR) respectively the "Fundamental Review of the Trading Book" (FRTB), computes the regulatory capital requirements for market risks. The capital requirements according to CRR and FRTB are compared to show how the suggested move to an expected shortfall (ES) based model in FRTB will affect the capital requirements. All computations are performed with data that have been provided from a power trading company to make the results fit reality. In the results, when comparing the risk capital requirements according to CRR and FRTB for a power portfolio with only linear assets, it shows that the risk capital is higher using the value-at-risk (VaR) based model. This study shows that the changes in risk capital mainly depend on the different methods of calculating the risk capital according to CRR and FRTB respectively and minor on the change of risk measure. / I samband med finanskrisen 2008 har riskmedvetenheten ökat i den finansiella sektorn. Företag regleras mot riskexponering av föreskrifter som drivs av Baselkommittén, de utformar tillsynsstandarder och riktlinjer samt rekommenderar åtgärder av bästa praxis. I dessa föreskrifter regleras företag av kapitalbaskrav mot marknadsrisker. I det här examensarbetet beskrivs processen för att ta fram en intern riskmodell, enligt "Capital Requirements Regulation"(CRR) respektive Fundamental Review of the Trading Book"(FRTB), för att beräkna de lagstadgade kapitalkraven mot marknadsrisker. Kapitalbaskraven enligt regelverken jämförs för att förstå hur det föreslagna bytet till en expected shortfall (ES) baserad modell i FRTB kommer att påverka kapitalbaskraven. I alla beräkningar anv änds data från ett elhandelsföretag för att göra resultaten mer intressanta och verklighetsanpassade. I resultatdelen, vid jämförelse av riskkapitalkraven enligt CRR och FRTB för en energiportfölj med endast linjära tillgångar kan det ses att riskkapitalet blir högre med en value-at-risk (VaR) baserad modell. Den viktigaste upptäckten med detta är att skillnaden i riskkapitalkraven inte främst beror på de olika riskmåtten utan snarare de olika metoderna för att beräkna riskkapitalet enligt CRR och FRTB.

The Own Risk and Solvency Assessment, ORSA, is referred to as the heart of the regulation to be for European insurance companies - Solvency II. The aim of the ORSA process is to provide an overall and holistic view of the insurer’s risks by analyzing their current financial status and business strategy at hand. There is no predefined way to implement this process, which means that the companies are forced to develop a model themselves, as they see fit. In collaboration with a regional insurance company in Sweden we develop a structure and framework for an ORSA-model, flexible enough to be used by similar insurers yet standardized enough to overcome the issue of constrained resources within these smaller organizations. We apply a risk-factor based approach and tie together a balance sheet projection and stress testing, designed to be further developed as the individual insurer see fit. The suggested approach yields partially satisfying results and we consider the model to be particularly well-suited for assessing risk in the context of the small, non-life insurer. / Den egna risk- och solvensutvärderingen, ORSA, kallas hjärtat av det kommande regelverket för europeiska försäkringsbolag - Solvens II. Syftet med ORSA-processen är att ge en övergripande helhetsbild av försäkringsgivarens risker genom att analysera deras finansiella ställning och affärsstrategi. Det finns inget fördefinierat sätt att genomföra denna process, vilket innebär att företagen tvingas att utveckla en modell på egen hand, på ett sätt som de finner lämpligt. I samarbete med ett regionalt försäkringsbolag i Sverige utvecklar vi en struktur och en grund för en ORSA-modell. En modell som är tillräckligt flexibel för att kunna användas av liknande försäkringsgivare men samtidigt standardiserad nog att lösa problemet med begränsade resurser i dessa mindre organisationer. Vi tillämpar en riskfaktor-baserad metod, prognostiserar resultat- och balansräkning för bolaget och utför stresstester. Metoden är utformad för att utvecklas vidare av den enskilde försäkringsgivaren så som de finner lämpligt. Den föreslagna metoden ger delvis tillfredsställande resultat och vi anser att det är en grund väl lämpad att använda som utgångspunkt för att konstruera riskmätningsmetoder för små, skadeförsäkringsbolag.

The risk management within a bank is an important part given its status as a pivotal component within the capital adequency framwork stipluated in the Basel Accords. To proficiently be assessing, monitoring and managing market risk that the bank undertakes is therefore a part of the daily activities at Swedbank. For the majority of the measures and models, the bank is employing a full revaluation approach, implying a revaluation of each position under diverse market conditions specified across various scenarios to estimate risk. Prior to this thesis, Swedbank has been missing the full revaluation approach for the product commodity futures in their portfolio. The commodity futures needs to be treated differently from other futures due to their underlying being a physical product being produced, stored and transported. To help Swedbank being able to calculate and measure a diversified set of risk measures for commodity futures with high accuracy and according to market practise and implement the valuation model with results closest to market practise into their risk system, various valuation models have been replicated and compared in Python. The focus has been on investigating different variations of a model derived from the theory of storage and no arbitrage (Cost of Carry model) as well as a more advanced model developed from a belief of mean reverting short-term prices and an uncertain long-term equilibrium price (Schwartz and Smith Two Factor model). These models were replicated on three different commodity types in Swedbanks portfolio, Wheat, Rapeseed and Gasoil, to determine which valuation model that could estimate prices closest to the real prices on the market. The findings revealed that one variation of the Cost of Carry model could be matched exactly to the mark-to-market price due to the real price being known. The Schwartz and Smith Two Factor model was clearly the second best model, estimating prices very well but not always exactly. The most suited model that could match the price exactly, was chosen to be implemented into the risk system of Swedbank and had identified risk factors as interest rate, exchange rate and underlying spot price. With VaR simulations shifting the chosen risk factors, it could be proved that the commodity futures are traded back-to-back since all positions were offsetting each other. Since Swedbank is an intermediary and the business is about providing access to the market for Swedbanks customers, the back-to-back trading was something that Swedbank assumed but earlier not could prove. Furthermore, the back testing revealed that the special characteristic convenience yield could potentially be considered a risk factor in the future and that it would be relevant if the business model of commodity futures at Swedbank would change. / Riskhanteringen inom en bank är en viktig del med tanke på dess roll som en avgörande komponent inom kapitaltäckningsramverket som föreskrivs i Basel-avtalen. Att noggrant bedöma, övervaka och hantera den marknadsrisk som banken åtar sig är därför en del av de dagliga aktiviteterna på Swedbank. För de flesta åtgärder och modeller använder banken en fullständig omvärderingsmetod, vilket innebär en omvärdering av varje position under olika marknadsförhållanden specificerade över olika scenarier för att uppskatta risken. Innan det här projektet har Swedbank saknat den fullständiga omvärderingsmetoden för produkten råvaruterminer i sin portfölj. Råvaruterminer måste behandlas annorlunda än andra terminer på grund av att deras underliggande är en fysisk produkt som produceras, lagras och transporteras. För att hjälpa Swedbank att kunna beräkna och mäta en diversifierad uppsättning riskmått för råvaruterminer med hög noggrannhet och enligt marknadspraxis samt implementera värderingsmodellen med resultat som ligger närmast marknadspraxis i deras risksystem har olika värderingsmodeller replikerats och jämförts i Python. Fokuset har legat på att undersöka olika variationer av en modell som härstammar från teorin om lagring och inget arbitrage (Cost of Carry-modell) samt en mer avancerad modell som utvecklats från en tro om ett genomsnittligt återgående kortsiktigt pris och ett osäkert långsiktigt jämviktspris (Schwartz och Smith Two Factor-modell). Dessa modeller replikerades för tre olika typer av råvaror i Swedbanks portfölj: Vete, Raps och Gasol, för att avgöra vilken värderingsmodell som kunde uppskatta priser närmast de verkliga priserna på marknaden. Resultaten visade att en variation av Cost of Carry-modellen kunde matchas exakt med marknadsvärdet eftersom det verkliga priset var känt. Schwartz och Smith Two Factor-modellen var tydligt den näst bästa modellen, vilket uppskattade priserna mycket bra men inte alltid exakt. Den mest lämpade modellen som kunde matcha priset exakt valdes för att implementeras i Swedbanks risksystem och hade identifierade riskfaktorer som ränta, växelkurs och underliggande spotpris. Genom VaR-simuleringar som skiftade de valda riskfaktorerna kunde det bevisas att råvaruterminerna handlas back-to-back eftersom alla positioner neutraliserade varandra. Eftersom Swedbank är en mellanhand och affärsmodellen handlar om att ge Swedbanks kunder tillgång till marknaden, var back-to-back-handel något som Swedbank antog men tidigare inte kunde bevisa.  Vidare visade backtestingen att den särskilda karaktären convenience yield eventuellt skulle kunna betraktas som en riskfaktor i framtiden och att detta skulle vara aktuellt om affärsmodellen för råvaruterminer på Swedbank skulle förändras.

In dieser Arbeit werden in vier Kapiteln vier Themen der Weltwirtschaft behandelt: (1) Weshalb konzentrieren sich intra-industrieller Handel und intra-industrielle Investitionen auf Industrieländer? (2) Wieso ist es für ein multinationales Unternehmen wichtig, dauerhaft Technologieführer zu sein? (3) Weshalb sind multinationale Unternehmen in Bezug auf risikoaverses Verhalten erfolgreicher? (4) Weshalb ist freie Faktormobilität nicht ausreichend, um eine Produktionskonvergenz zwischen Industrie- und Entwicklungsländern herzustellen? Die wichtigsten Ergebnisse der Arbeit zeigen, dass die traditionelle Außenhandelstheorie neue Phänomene in Bezug auf Handel und Investitionen erklären kann. Es wird gezeigt, dass eingeschränkter Technologietransfer einen minimalen Effekt auf die Zielmärkte hat, dass ein multinationales Unternehmen das aus verschiedenen Märkten resultierende Risiko besser bewältigen kann und dass freie Faktormobilität nicht ausreicht, um eine Konvergenz in der Produktion zwischen multinationalen Unternehmen - und damit eine wirtschaftliche Annährung - zu erzielen. / This thesis is mainly aimed to explain four topics in the world economy in four chapters respectively: 1) why intraindustry trade or investment concentrates in developed countries; 2) Why it is important for a multinational corporation to hold technological leadership; 3) why being a multinational can be more superior in terms of risk aversion; 4) why free factor mobility is not sufficient to help production convergence between developed and developing firms. The major findings show that traditional trade theory can accommodate new phenomena of trade and investment; restrained technological transfer has trivial effect on the transferees' markets; being a multinational corporation can more conformably bear the risks variously sourced from different markets; and free factor movement is not sufficient to promote production convergence among multinational corporations and thus economic convergence among countries.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-25T18:39:30Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissert_CFaR_JM.pdf: 425630 bytes, checksum: 678183a4d0bf40cbf1b65565fa0c92dc (MD5) Previous issue date: 2005-07-11 / The main goal of this dissertation is the study of the utilization of CFaR Cash Flow at Risk. CFaR is market risk assessing tool that is intended to simulate the value at risk of a future cash flow, operational and financial, given a confidence interval. The main idea is to present CFaR model applied to a non-financial company from the electrical sector a GENCO, Generation Company - , where either the rates and indexes of its financial assets and liabilities as well the demand for its services can be assumed random variables, in a process of statistical modeling for measurement of its cash flow s likely range of variation in the following fiscal year. Besides CFaR itself, other risk numbers will take part in the analysis, as EaR - Earnings at Risk - , that is the P&L of the company, with a given probability of occurrence. EBITDA at Risk, the minimum statistical value for the EBITDA figure with a given probability of occurrence, will be also calculated. / O objetivo geral da pesquisa é o estudo da utilização do CFaR, uma ferramenta de controle de risco de mercado que busca simular o valor em risco do fluxo de caixa futuro, tanto operacional como financeiro de uma empresa, dentro de um intervalo de confiança pré-definido. A idéia é apresentar o modelo CFaR aplicado a uma empresa não financeira, em especial uma empresa do setor elétrico geradora de energia, onde tanto os indexadores de seus ativos e passivos financeiros como a demanda por seus serviços podem ser tratados como variáveis aleatórias, num processo de modelagem estatística para mensuração da possível faixa de variação de seu fluxo de caixa no(s) exercício(s) subseqüentes. Além do CFaR propriamente dito, farão parte da análise o EaR (do inglês Earnings at Risk), que é o lucro líquido da empresa com dada probabilidade de ocorrência e o EBITDA em risco, que é o mínimo estatístico para a variável EBITDA (Receita antes de Juros, Imposto de Renda, Depreciação e Amortização) também com determinada probabilidade de ocorrência.

This master thesis deals with the area of external audit of the bank in the Czech Republic. Its goal is to identify and describe the specifics making the procedures during bank's financial statements audit different from those applied by non-financial commercial subjects. The first part is focused on the general framework of the external audit. The second part describes main features of the bank identifying several risks connected with the business which have a significant influence on the approach used by the auditors. The third part describes the methodology applied by auditors during the audit of the bank.