Understanding the functional impact of physical interactions between proteins and DNA on gene expression is important for developing approaches to correct disease-associated gene dysregulation. I conducted a systematic, functional genetic analysis of protein-DNA interactions in the promoter region of the yeast ribonucleotide reductase subunit gene RNR3. I measured the transcriptional impact of systematically perturbing the major transcriptional regulator, Crt1, and three X-box sites on the DNA known to physically bind Crt1. This analysis revealed interactions between two of the three X-boxes in the presence of Crt1, and unexpectedly, a significant functional role of the X-boxes in the absence of Crt1. Further analysis revealed Crt1- independent regulators of RNR3 that were impacted by X-box perturbation. Taken together, these results support the notion that higher-order X-box-mediated interactions are important for RNR3 transcription, and that the X-boxes have unexpected roles in the regulation of RNR3 transcription that extend beyond their interaction with Crt1.

Given the overall increase in the availability of computational resources, and the importance of forecasting the future, it should come as no surprise that prediction is considered to be one of the most compelling and challenging problems for both academia and industry in the world of data analytics. But how is prediction done, what factors make it easier or harder to do, how accurate can we expect the results to be, and can we harness the available computational resources in meaningful ways? With efforts ranging from those designed to save lives in the moments before a near field tsunami to others attempting to predict the performance of Major League Baseball players, future generations need to have realistic expectations about prediction methods and analytics. This thesis takes a broad look at the problem, including motivation, methodology, accuracy, and infrastructure. In particular, a careful study involving experiments in regression, the prediction of continuous, numerical values, and classification, the assignment of a class to each sample, is provided. The results and conclusions of these experiments cover only the included data sets and the applied algorithms as implemented by the Python library. The evaluation includes accuracy and running time of different algorithms across several data sets to establish tradeoffs between the approaches, and determine the impact of variations in the size of the data sets involved. As scalability is a key characteristic required to meet the needs of future prediction problems, a discussion of some of the challenges associated with parallelization is included. / Graduate / 0984 / erickson@uvic.ca

Den Europeiska Unionen är en mångfacetterad samling länder med ett brett spektra av historisk bakgrund, geografisk placering och ekonomiska förhållanden. I denna uppsats undersöks huruvida en gemensam europeisk identitet kan bidra till en ökad tillit från medborgarna i unionen till EU som institution. Uppsatsens teoretiska underlag består av tidigare forskning. Denna forskning skapar ett fundament för den statistiska modell som används för att besvara frågeställningen. Med hjälp av data samlad ur bland annat Eurobarometerrapporter tar uppsatsen, via multipel linjär regression, fram en modell som förklarar förhållandet mellan den beroende variabeln ”förtroende för EU” och de oberoende variablerna ”uppfattning av gemensam europeisk identitet”, ”avstånd till Bryssel”, ”BNP per capita” och ”antal år som medlem i EU”. Resultatet visar en koppling mellan en högre grad av upplevd gemensam identitet hos medborgarna i ett land och ett ökat förtroende för EU. Vidare visar modellen ett negativt samband mellan förtroendet för EU och ett stigande värde på var och en av de övriga förklaringsvariablerna. Med andra ord: ju längre avstånd till Bryssel, ju högre BNP per capita och ju längre medlemskap i unionen desto lägre förtroende känner den genomsnittlige medborgaren för EU. / The European Union is a diverse group of countries characterized by a wide spectra of historical background, geographical location and economic situation. The topic of this essay is whether a common European identity can contribute to an increased level of trust from the citizens towards the EU as an institution. Previous research constitute the theoretical basis of the essay. Using this research, I create the foundation for the statistical model used to answer the question at issue. Using multiple linear regression on data gathered from Eurobarometer reports and other sources, I create a statistical model that explains the relationship between the dependent variable “trust in EU” and the independent variables “feeling of being an EU-citizen”, “distance to Brussels”, “BNP per capita” and “number of years as member of EU”. The results shows a connection between a higher level of feeling of being an EU-citizen and a higher level of trust in EU. Moreover, the model shows a negative connection between trust in EU and an increasing value on each of the other independent variables. In other words: the further away the average citizen is from Brussels, the higher level of BNP per capita her country has and the longer her country has been a member of the EU, the lower trust she has in the EU.

Thesis (MScFor)--Stellenbosch University, 2012. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Site Index is used extensively in modern commercial forestry both as an indicator of current and future site potential, but also as a means of site comparison. The concept is deeply embedded into current forest planning processes, and without it empirical growth and yield modelling would not function in its present form. Most commercial forestry companies in South Africa currently spend hundreds of thousands of Rand annually collecting growth stock data via inventory, but spend little or no money on the default compartment data (specifically Site Index) which is used to estimate over 90% of the product volumes in their long term plans. A need exists to construct reliable methods to determine Site Index for sites which have not been physically measured (the socalled "default", or indirect Site Index). Most previous attempts to model Site Index have used multiple linear regression as the model, alternative methods have been explored in this thesis: Regression tree analysis, random forest analysis, hybrid or model trees, multiple linear regression, and multiple linear regression using regression trees to identify the variables. Regression tree analysis proves to be ideally suited to this type of data, and a generic model with only three site variables was able to capture 49.44 % of the variation in Site Index. Further localisation of the model could prove to be commercially useful. One of the key assumptions associated with Site Index, that it is unaffected by initial planting density, was tested using linear mixed effects modelling. The results show that there may well be role played by initial stocking in some species (notably E. dunnii and E. nitens), and that further work may be warranted. It was also shown that early measurement of dominant height results in poor estimates of Site Index, which will have a direct impact on inventory policies and on data to be included in Site Index modelling studies. This thesis is divided into six chapters: Chapter 1 contains a description of the concept of Site Index and it's origins, as well as, how the concept is used within the current forest planning processes. Chapter 2 contains an analysis on the influence of initial planted density on the estimate of Site Index. Chapter 3 explores the question of whether the age at which dominant height is measured has any effect on the quality of Site Index estimates. Chapter 4 looks at various modelling methodologies and compares the resultant models. Chapter 5 contains conclusions and recommendations for further study, and finally Chapter 6 discusses how any new Site Index model will effect the current planning protocol. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hedendaagse kommersiële bosbou gebruik groeiplek indeks (Site Index) as 'n aanduiding van huidige en toekomstige groeiplek moontlikhede, asook 'n metode om groeiplekke te vergelyk. Hierdie beginsel is diep gewortel in bestaande beplanningsprosesse en daarsonder kan empiriese groeien opbrengsmodelle nie in hul huidige vorm funksioneer nie. SuidAfrikaanse bosboumaatskappye bestee jaarliks groot bedrae geld aan die versameling van groeivoorraad data deur middel van opnames, maar weinig of geen geld word aangewend vir die insameling van ongemete vak data (veral groeiplek indeks) nie. Ongemete vak data word gebuik om meer as 90% van die produksie volume te beraam in langtermyn beplaning. 'n Behoefte bestaan om betroubare metodes te ontwikkel om groeiplek indeks te bereken vir groeiplekke wat nog nie opgemeet is nie. Die meeste vorige pogings om groeiplek indeks te beraam het meervoudige linêre regressie as model gebruik. Alternatiewe metodes is ondersoek; naamlik regressieboom analise, ewekansige woud analise, hibriedeof modelbome, meervoudige linêre regressie en meervoudige linêre regressie waarin die veranderlike faktore bepaal is deur regressiebome. Regressieboom analise blyk geskik te wees vir hierdie tipe data en 'n veralgemeende model met slegs drie groeiplek veranderlikes dek 49.44 % van die variasie in groeiplek indeks. Verdere lokalisering van die model kan dus van kommersiële waarde wees. 'n Sleutel aanname is gemaak dat aanvanklike plantdigtheid nie 'n invloed op groeiplek indeks het nie. Hierdie aanname is getoets deur linêre gemengde uitwerkings modelle. Die toetsuitslag dui op 'n moontlikheid dat plantdigtheid wel 'n invloed het op sommige spesies (vernaamlik E. dunnii en E. nitens) en verdere navorsing kan daarom geregverdig word. Dit is ook bewys dat metings van jonger bome vir dominante hoogtes gee aanleiding tot swak beramings van groeiplek indekse. Gevolglik sal hierdie toestsuitslag groeivoorraad opname beleid, asook die data wat vir groeiplek indeks modellering gebruik word, beïnvloed. Hierdie tesis word in ses hoofstukke onderverdeel. Hoofstuk een bevat 'n beskrywing van die beginsel van groeiplek indeks, die oorsprong daarvan, asook hoe die beginsel tans in huidige bosbou beplannings prosesse toegepas word. Hoofstuk twee bestaan uit ń ontleding van die invloed van aanvanklike plantdigtheid op die beraming van groeplek indeks. In hoofstuk drie word ondersoek wat die moontlike invloed is van die ouderdom waarop metings vir dominante hoogte geneem word, op die kwaliteit van groeplek indeks beramings het. Hoofstuk vier verken verskeie modelle metodologieë en vergelyk die uitslaggewende modelle. Hoofstuk vyf bevat gevolgtrekkings en voorstelle vir verdere studies. Afsluitend, is hoofstuk ses ń bespreking van hoe enige nuwe groeiplek indeks modelle die huidige beplannings protokol kan beïnvloed.

Submitted by Johnny Rodrigues (johnnyrodrigues@ufcg.edu.br) on 2018-04-11T14:50:08Z No. of bitstreams: 1 CAIO SANTOS BEZERRA NÓBREGA - DISSERTAÇÃO PPGCC 2014..pdf: 983246 bytes, checksum: 5eca7651706ce317dc514ec2f1aa10c3 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-04-11T14:50:08Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 CAIO SANTOS BEZERRA NÓBREGA - DISSERTAÇÃO PPGCC 2014..pdf: 983246 bytes, checksum: 5eca7651706ce317dc514ec2f1aa10c3 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-07-30 / Capes / Sugerir os produtos mais apropriados aos diversos tipos de consumidores não é uma tarefa trivial, apesar de ser um fator chave para aumentar satisfação e lealdade destes. Devido a esse fato, sistemas de recomendação têm se tornado uma ferramenta importante para diversas aplicações, tais como, comércio eletrônico, sites personalizados e redes sociais. Recentemente, a fatoração de matrizes se tornou a técnica mais bem sucedida de implementação de sistemas de recomendação. Os parâmetros do modelo de fatoração de matrizes são tipicamente aprendidos por meio de métodos numéricos, tal como o gradiente descendente. O desempenho do gradiente descendente está diretamente relacionada à configuração da taxa de aprendizagem, a qual é tipicamente configurada para valores pequenos, com o objetivo de não perder um mínimo local. Consequentemente, o algoritmo pode levar várias iterações para convergir. Idealmente,é desejada uma taxa de aprendizagem que conduza a um mínimo local nas primeiras iterações, mas isto é muito difícil de ser realizado dada a alta complexidade do espaço de valores a serem pesquisados. Começando com um estudo exploratório em várias bases de dados de sistemas de recomendação, observamos que, para a maioria das bases, há um padrão linear entre a taxa de aprendizagem e o número de iterações necessárias para atingir a convergência. A partir disso, propomos utilizar modelos de regressão lineares simples para predizer, para uma base de dados desconhecida, um bom valor para a taxa de aprendizagem inicial. A ideia é estimar uma taxa de aprendizagem que conduza o gradiente descendenteaummínimolocalnasprimeirasiterações. Avaliamosnossatécnicaem8bases desistemasderecomendaçãoreaisecomparamoscomoalgoritmopadrão,oqualutilizaum valorfixoparaataxadeaprendizagem,ecomtécnicasqueadaptamataxadeaprendizagem extraídas da literatura. Nós mostramos que conseguimos reduzir o número de iterações até em 40% quando comparados à abordagem padrão. / Suggesting the most suitable products to different types of consumers is not a trivial task, despite being a key factor for increasing their satisfaction and loyalty. Due to this fact, recommender systems have be come an important tool for many applications, such as e-commerce, personalized websites and social networks. Recently, Matrix Factorization has become the most successful technique to implement recommendation systems. The parameters of this model are typically learned by means of numerical methods, like the gradient descent. The performance of the gradient descent is directly related to the configuration of the learning rate, which is typically set to small values, in order to do not miss a local minimum. As a consequence, the algorithm may take several iterations to converge. Ideally, one wants to find a learning rate that will lead to a local minimum in the early iterations, but this is very difficult to achieve given the high complexity of search space. Starting with an exploratory study on several recommendation systems datasets, we observed that there is an over all linear relationship between the learnin grate and the number of iterations needed until convergence. From this, we propose to use simple linear regression models to predict, for a unknown dataset, a good value for an initial learning rate. The idea is to estimate a learning rate that drives the gradient descent as close as possible to a local minimum in the first iteration. We evaluate our technique on 8 real-world recommender datasets and compared it with the standard Matrix Factorization learning algorithm, which uses a fixed value for the learning rate over all iterations, and techniques fromt he literature that adapt the learning rate. We show that we can reduce the number of iterations until at 40% compared to the standard approach.

Submitted by Johnny Rodrigues (johnnyrodrigues@ufcg.edu.br) on 2018-04-12T20:38:00Z No. of bitstreams: 1 IURY DEWAR CRUZ DE OLIVEIRA NUNES - DISSERTAÇÃO PPGCC 2014..pdf: 1148640 bytes, checksum: 9e084516af4065804bc3489d60d75384 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-04-12T20:38:00Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 IURY DEWAR CRUZ DE OLIVEIRA NUNES - DISSERTAÇÃO PPGCC 2014..pdf: 1148640 bytes, checksum: 9e084516af4065804bc3489d60d75384 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-08-28 / As Redes Sociais Baseadas em Localização (RSBL) surgiram com o propósito de permitir que os usuários possam compartilhar com sua rede de amigos informações a respeito dos pontos de interesse (POIs) que eles visitaram. Neste contexto, a capacidade de recomendar novos lugares para que os usuários possam visitar é importante, pois pode, eventualmente, melhorar a experiência destes usuários ao utilizar o sistema. O contexto geogr´afico certamente influencia os usu´arios na hora de escolher os locais a serem visitados. Sendo assim, inicialmente analisamos este contexto de forma isolada, através de recomendadores de POIs puramente baseados em informacões geográficas. Além disso, propomos um novo recomendador puramente geográfico baseado em Kernels Gaussianos. Os resultados dos nossos experimentos demonstraram que o modelo proposto consegue alcançar uma maior acurácia que os recomendadores puramente geográficos presentes no estado-da-arte na maioria dos casos avaliados. Porém esta mesma análise demonstrou que o contexto geográfico isoladamente não é capaz de gerar recomendações com alta acurácia de forma geral. Logo, ao modelar um recomendador de POIs é necessário combinar as informações geográficas com outros contextos a fim de melhorar sua acurácia. Sendo assim, também propomos um novo recomendador de POIs que consegue capturar as preferências de usuários (de forma similar às técnicas de filtragem colaborativa) e informações geográficas em um único modelo baseado em difusão de grafos. Este recomendador visa aprender um ranking personalizado de lugares a serem recomendados para cada usuário levando em consideração os lugares visitados por outros usuários com preferências similares, as distâncias entre os lugares visitados e os lugares candidatos à recomendação, e as regiões as quais o usuário visita mais frequentemente. Os nossos experimentos mostraram que este modelo consegue ser mais eficiente que os modelos de recomendações de POIs presentes no estado-da-arte, além de conseguir alcançar uma acurácia igual ou superior às abordagens comparadas. todos os experimentos foram realizados utilizando dados reais de uma das RSBL mais populares atualmente: o Foursquare. / Location-Based Social Networks (LBSN) emerged with the purpose of allowing users to share, with their friends, information about points of interest (POIs) they visited. In this context, the ability to recommend new places for users to visit is important because it can eventually improve the overall user experience while using the system. The geographical context certainly influences the locations that the users choose to visit. Therefore, initially we analyzed this context separately, through the recommenders of POIs purely based on geographical information. Furthermore, we propose a new geographicaware recommender based on Gaussian Kernels. The results of our experiments demonstrated that the proposed model can achieve higher accuracy than the state-of-the art recommenders solely based on geographical information, in most of the cases evaluated. However, this same analysis showed that the geographical context alone is not able to generate recommendations owith high accuracy. So to model a new recommender of POIs, it is necessary to combine geographic information with other contexts in order to achieve high accuracy. Thus, we also propose a new recommender of POIs that can capture the preferences of users (similar to collaborative filtering techniques) and geographical information in a single model based on diffusion on graphs. This recommender aims to learn a personalized ranking of places to be recommended for each user taking into consideration the places visited by other users with similar preferences, the distances between the places visited and places candidates for recommendation, and the regions which the user visits more often. Our experiments showed that this model can be more efficient than state-of-the-art recommenders of POIs, also achieving an accuracy equal to or greater than the compared approaches. All experiments were conducted using real data from one of the most popular RSBL nowadays: Foursquare.

[pt] Este trabalho apresenta um estudo comparativo de três técnicas de melhoria das taxas de reconhecimento de voz em ambiente adverso, a saber: Normalização da Média Cepestral (CMN), Subtração Espectral e Regressão Linear no Sentido da Máxima Verossimilhança (MLLR), aplicadas isoladamente e em concomitância, duas a duas. Os testes são realizados usando um sistema simples: reconhecimento de palavras isoladas (dígitos de zero a nove, e meia), modo dependente do locutor, modelos ocultos de Markov do tipo contínuo, e vetores de atributos com doze coeficientes cepestrais derivados da análise de predição linear. São adotados três tipos de ruído (gaussiano branco, falatório e de fábrica) em nove razões sinal-ruído diferentes. Os resultados experimentais demonstram que o emprego isolado das técnicas de reconhecimento robusto é, em geral, vantajoso, pois nas diversas razões sinal-ruído para as quais os testes são efetuados, quando as taxas de reconhecimento não sofrem um acréscimo, mantém-se as mesmas obtidas quando não se aplica nenhum método de aumento da robustez. Analisando-se comparativamente as implementações isoladas e simultânea das técnicas, constata-se que a simultânea nem sempre é atraente, dependendo da dupla empregada. Apresentam-se, ainda, os resultados decorrentes do uso de modelos ruidosos, observando-se que, embora sejam inegavelmente melhores, sua utilização é inviável na prática. Das técnicas implementadas, a que representa resultados mais próximos ao emprego de modelos ruidosos é a MLLR, seguida pela CMN, e por último pela Subtração Espectral. Estas últimas, embora percam em desempenho para a primeira, apresentam como vantagem a simplicidade e a generalidade. No que concerne as técnicas usadas concomitantemente, a dupla Subtração Espectral e MLLR é a considerada de melhor performance, pois mostra-se conveniente em relação ao emprego isolado de ambos os métodos, o que nem sempre ocorre com o uso de outras combinações das técnicas individuais. / [en] This work presents a comparative study of three techniques for improving the speech recognition rates in adverse environment, namely: Cepstral Mean Normalization (CMN), Spectral Subtraction and Maximum Likelihood Linear Regression (MLLR). They are implemented in two ways: separately and in pairs. The tests are carried out on a simple system: recognition of isolated words (digits from zero to nine, and the word half), speaker-dependent mode, continuous hidden Markov models, and speech feature vectors with twelve cepstral coefficients derived from linear predictive analysis. Three types of noise are considered (the white one, voice babble and from factory) at nine different signal-to-noise ratios. Experimental result demonstrate that it is worth using separately the techniques of robust recognition. This is because for all signal-to-noise conditions when the recognition accuracy is not improved it is the same one obtained when no method for increasing the robustness is applied. Analyzing comparatively the isolated and simultaneous applications of the techniques, it is verified that the later is not always more attractive than the former one. This depends on the pair of techniques. The use of noisy models is also considered. Although it presents better results, it is not feasible to implement in pratical situations. Among the implemented techniques, MLLR presents closer results to the ones obtaneid with noisy models, followed by CMN, and, at last, by Spectral Subtraction. Although the two later ones are beaten by the first, in terms of recognition accuracy, their advantages are the simplicity and the generality. The use of simultaneous techniques reveals that the pair Spectral Subtraction and MLLR is the one with the best performance because it is superior in comparison with the individual use of both methods. This does not happen with other combination of techniques. / [es] Este trabajo presenta un estudio comparativo de tres técnicas de mejoría de las tasas de reconocimiento de voz en ambiente adverso, a saber: Normalización de la Media Cepextral (CMN), Substracción Espectral y Regresión Lineal en el Sentido de la Máxima Verosimilitud (MLLR), aplicadas separada y conjuntamente, dos a dos. Las pruebas son realizados usando un sistema simple: reconocimiento de palabras aisladas (dígitos de cero al nueve, y media), de modo dependiente del locutor, modelos ocultos de Markov de tipo contínuo, y vectores de atributos con doce coeficientes cepextrales derivados del análisis de predicción lineal. Se adoptan tres tipos de ruido (gausiano blanco, parlatorio y de fábrica) en nueve razones señal- ruido diferentes. Los resultados experimentales demuestran que el empleo aislado de las técnicas de reconocimiento robusto es, en general, ventajoso, pues en las diversas relaciones señal ruido para las cuales las pruebas son efetuadas, cuando la tasa de reconocimiento no aumenta, manteniendo las mismas tasas cuando no se aplica ningún método de aumento de robustez. Analizando comparativamente las implementaciones aisladas y simultáneas de las técnicas, se constata que no siempre la simultánea resulta atractiva, dependiendo de la dupla utilizada. Se presentan además los resultados al utilizar modelos ruidosos, observando que, aunque resultan mejores, su utilización em la práctica resulta inviable. De las técnicas implementadas, la que presenta resultados más próximos al empleo de modelos ruidosos es la MLLR, seguida por la CMN, y por último por la Substracción Espectral. Estas últimas, aunque tienen desempeño peor que la primera, tienen como ventaja la simplicidad y la generalidad. En lo que se refiere a las técnicas usadas concomitantemente, la dupla Substracción Espectral y MLLR es la de mejor performance, pues se muestra conveniente en relación al empleo aislado de ambos métodos, lo que no siempre ocurre con el uso de otras combinaciones de las técnicas individuales.

[pt] Segundo o INEP/MEC, nos últimos 20 anos, o número de matrículas da educação superior de graduação no Brasil cresceu mais de duas vezes, com uma taxa de crescimento anual verificada a partir de 2001 em torno de 5,7 por cento ao ano. Ainda segundo esta instituição, em 2008 houve o ingresso de 1.505.819 novos estudantes nos cursos presenciais, ao mesmo tempo em que 1.479.318 vagas não foram ocupadas, sendo que 54,6 por cento do total de vagas ofertadas pelo setor privado. Tendo em conta que São Paulo é o maior estado do Brasil, é muito importante que o Ministério da Educação tome conhecimento de como se dará a dinâmica da oferta de educação superior nos próximos 20 anos para que suas ações (políticas públicas, sobretudo) possam ser realizadas com êxito. O objetivo deste trabalho é aplicar modelagem estatística para estimar a oferta do ensino superior do Estado de São Paulo no período de 2015 a 2035, considerando dados da INEP de educação superior. A motivação para este trabalho é melhorar o planejamento da oferta de curso superior e fazer a replicação do modelo preditivo para outros estados do Brasil. A metodologia usada é modelagem estatística (modelos de regressão linear) e séries temporais (Holt). Como resultado, têm-se as áreas e/os cursos onde o governo federal deve investir no futuro aprimorando seu planejamento. / [en] According to INEP/MEC, in the last 20 years, the number of undergraduate higher education enrollments in Brazil has grown more than twice, with an annual growth rate of 5,7 percent per year since 2001. According to this institution, in 2008 there were 1.505.819 new students enrolled in presential courses, while 1.479.318 vacancies were not filled, with 54.6 percent of the total number of vacancies offered by the private sector. Given that São Paulo is the largest state in Brazil, it is very important that the Ministry of Education becomes aware of the dynamics of the offer of higher education in the next 20 years so that its actions (mainly public policies) can be successfully executed. The objective of this study is to apply statistical modeling to estimate the offer of higher education in the State of São Paulo in the period from 2015 to 2035, considering data from INEP about higher education. The motivation for this work is to improve the planning of the offer of higher education and to replicate the predictive model for other Brazilian states. The methodology used concerns statistical modeling (linear regression models) and time series (Holt). As a result, it is obtained the areas and/or courses where the federal government should invest in the future, improving its planning. / [es] Según el INEP/MEC, en los últimos 20 años, el número de matrículas de educación superior en Brasil creció más de dos veces, con una tasa de crecimiento anual verificada a partir de 2001 en torno al 5,7 por ciento por año. Según esta institución, en 2008 hubo un ingreso de 1.505.819 nuevos estudiantes en los cursos presenciales, al mismo tiempo que 1.479.318 vacantes no fueron ocupadas, siendo el 54,6 por ciento del total de vacantes ofrecidas por el sector privado. Dado que São Paulo es el mayor estado de Brasil, es muy importante que el Ministerio de Educación tome conocimiento de cómo se dará la dinámica de la oferta de educación superior en los próximos 20 años para que sus acciones (políticas públicas, sobre todo) puedan realizarse con éxito. El objetivo de este trabajo es aplicar modelos estadísticos para estimar la oferta de educación superior del Estado de São Paulo en el período de 2015 a 2035, considerando datos de INEP de educación superior. La motivación para este trabajo es mejorar la planificación de la oferta de curso superior y hacer replicación del modelo predictivo para otros estados de Brasil. La metodología utilizada es modelos estadístico (modelos de regresión lineal) y series tiempo (Holt). Como resultado, se tienen las áreas y/o cursos donde el gobierno federal debe invertir en el futuro mejorando su planificación.

Les îles tropicales sont soumises à un ennuagement hétérogène et changeant rapidement. Par ailleurs, elles ont une ressource solaire importante mais significativement variable d’un jour à l’autre. Dans le sud-ouest de l’océan indien (SWIO), La Réunion fait partie de ces îles tropicales ayant un potentiel solaire colossal mais fortement intermittent. Dans cette étude, nous proposons une nouvelle approche de prévision déterministe des cartes journalières rayonnement solaire (SSR), basée sur quatre modèles de régression linéaire : une régression linéaire multiple (MLR), une régression en composantes principales (PCR), une régression des moindres carrés (PLSR) et une régression pas à pas (stepwise--SR). Ces quatre régressions sont appliquées sur les données satellites SARAH-E (CM SAF) à 5km de résolution entre 2007 et 2016, en vue d’en effectuer la prévision. Pour obtenir de meilleures performances, nous proposons d'inclure les paramètres multi-fractale (H,C_1 et α) comme nouveaux paramètres prédictifs. Ceux-ci sont obtenus à partir de l'analyse de l'intermittence du SSR basée sur la méthode d’analyse d’ordre spectral arbitraire de Hilbert. Cette analyse qui est une extension de la transformation d’Hilbert Huang (HHT) est utilisée afin d’estimer l’exposant d’échelle ξ(q). On effectue la combinaison d’une décomposition en mode empirique et de l’analyse spectrale de Hilbert (EMD + HSA). Dans une première étape, l’analyse multi-fractale est appliquée sur une mesure du SSR d'une seconde échelle à partir d'un pyranomètre SPN1 à Moufia en 2016. La moyenne infra journalière, journalière et saisonnière de la structure multi-fractale a été dérivée, et la loi d’échelle d’exposants ξ(q) a été analysée. Dans une seconde partie, l’analyse de l’intermittence est effectuée sur les mesures du SSR, d'une période d’une minute, à partir le réseau de SPN1 contenant 11 stations en 2014. Les modèles spatiaux pour toutes les stations avec les paramètres multi-fractales H,C_1 et α sont mis en évidence. La variabilité de la largeur du spectre de singularité est considérée pour étudier l'intermittence spatiale et la multi-fractalité dans l'échelle quotidienne et l'échelle saisonnière. Sur la base de ces analyses d'intermittence faites sur les mesures de plusieurs stations, les paramètres multi-fractaux universels (H,C_1 et α) pourraient être choisis comme de nouveaux prédicteurs afin d’indiquer les propriétés multi-fractales du SSR. / Due to the heterogeneous and rapidly-changing cloudiness, tropical islands, such as Reunion Island in the South-west Indian Ocean (SWIO), have significant solar resource that is highly variable from day-to-day. In this study, we propose a new approach for deterministic prediction of daily surface solar radiation (SSR) maps based on four linear regression models: multiple linear regression (MLR), principal component regression (PCR), partial least squares regression (PLSR), and stepwise regression (SR), that we have applied on the SARAH-E@5km satellite data (CM SAF) for the period during 2007-2016. To improve the accuracy of prediction, the multifractal parameters (H,C_1 and α) are proposed to include as new predictors in the predictive model. These parameters are obtained from the analysis of SSR intermittency based on arbitrary order Hilbert spectral analysis. This analysis is the extension of Hilbert Huang Transform (HHT) and it is used to estimate the generalized scaling exponent ξ(q). It is the combination of the Empirical Mode Decomposition and Hilbert spectral analysis (EMD+HSA). In a first step, the multifractal analysis is applied onto one-second SSR measurements form a SPN1 pyranometer in Moufia in 2016. The mean sub-daily, daily and seasonal daily multifractal patterns are derived, and the scaling exponent ξ(q) is analyzed. In a second step, the intermittency study is conducted on one-minute SSR measurements from a SPN1 network with 11 stations in 2014. The spatial patterns for all the stations with the multifractal parameters H,C_1 and α are shown. The variability of singularity spectrum width is considered to study the spatial intermittency at the daily and seasonal scale. Based on this intermittency analysis from measurements at several stations, the universal multifractal parameters (H,C_1 and α) could be taken as new predictors for indicating the multifractal properties of SSR.

Deux méthodes d’assistance opératoire, pour le positionnement du composant glénoïdien d’une prothèse d’épaule, sont explorées. Elles ont pour dénominateur commun une reconstruction 3D première de la glène pathologique à implanter. Une approche essentiellement clinique, avec des travaux d’application pratique, est proposée pour la technologie des Patients Specific Implants (PSI), dont l’utilisation en orthopédie est croissante. Une approche davantage technologique est ensuite proposée, de type Réalité Augmentée, jusqu’à maintenant encore inexploitée dans le champ de la chirurgie orthopédique. La faisabilité de cette approche, les conditions d’emploi des technologies inhérentes, ont été étudiées. En amont, un nouveau type d’information pour implémenter, sur le support connecté (lunettes électroniques), l’application de réalité, est proposé, avec la modélisation mathématique par régression linéaire multiple d’une glène normale. L’objectif secondaire est d’obtenir une banque de données dites de glènes génériques normales, pouvant servir de référence à la reconstitution d’une glène pathologique à traiter, après un processus de morphing. / In this thesis, two methods of operating assistance for the positioning of the glenoid component of a shoulder prosthesis, are addressed. They have in common a preliminary 3D reconstruction of the pathological glenoid to implant. A main clinical approach, with practice studies, is proposed for the Patient Specific Implants technology, which is currently used in orthopaedics. Then a main prospective and technological approach is proposed with the Augmented Reality, while it is so far untapped in the field of orthopaedic surgery. The feasibility of this last technology, as well as the tools and the manual for its use, were studied. Upstream, a new type of information to implement the augmented reality connected application support is offered, with mathematical modeling by multiple linear regression of a normal glenoid. The second goal is to build a normal generic glenoids database. It can be used as reference to the reconstruction of a pathological glenoid to treat, after a morphing process step.