Dans le cadre d’une réflexion sur la mobilité internationale, nous nous intéressons dans cette thèse aux motivations des cadres français dans leur intention d’accepter une affectation internationale. Notre étude nous permet de soutenir que cette intention ne dépend pas uniquement des attitudes. Le contrôle comportemental perçu contribue également à la détermination de cette intention. Ce travail s’appuie sur la Théorie du Comportement Planifié (TCP). L’apport théorique de notre recherche est d’appliquer le modèle de la TCP auprès des cadres français pour savoir dans quelle mesure ils ont l’intention d’accepter une affectation internationale. L’apport managérial est de proposer aux entreprises des clés de compréhension leur permettant d’améliorer leurs pratiques de mobilité en identifiant les motivations des cadres pour une affectation internationale. L’apport méthodologique est la proposition de scénarios en fonction du pays de destination pour mettre en évidence la contribution des trois déterminants de cette intention en termes d’attitudes, de normes sociales et de contrôle perçu. / In the context of international mobility, we aim to explore in this thesis the motivations of the French executives regarding their intentions to accept an international assignment.Our study is based on the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) and enabled us to conclude that the intentions to accept international assignment does not depend solely on the attitudes. The perceived behavioral control also contribute to the determination of this intention. The theoretical contribution of our research is to apply the model of TPB on the French executives who have the intention to accept an international assignment. The managerial contribution is to offer the firms some key guidelines to broaden their understanding pertaining to the improvement in their practices of mobility by identifying the motivations of the executives for an international assignment.The methodological contribution is the proposition of scenarios based on country of destination for exhibiting the contribution of three determinants of this intention in terms of attitudes, social norms and perceived control.

Fire debris analysis currently relies on visual pattern recognition of the total ion chromatograms, extracted ion profiles, and target compound chromatograms to identify the presence of an ignitable liquid. This procedure is described in the ASTM International E1618-10 standard method. For large data sets, this methodology can be time consuming and is a subjective method, the accuracy of which is dependent upon the skill and experience of the analyst. This research aimed to develop an automated classification method for large data sets and investigated the use of the total ion spectrum (TIS). The TIS is calculated by taking an average mass spectrum across the entire chromatographic range and has been shown to contain sufficient information content for the identification of ignitable liquids. The TIS of ignitable liquids and substrates were compiled into model data sets. Substrates are defined as common building materials and household furnishings that are typically found at the scene of a fire and are, therefore, present in fire debris samples. Fire debris samples were also used which were obtained from laboratory-scale and large-scale burns. An automated classification method was developed using computational software that was written in-house. Within this method, a multi-step classification scheme was used to detect ignitable liquid residues in fire debris samples and assign these to the classes defined in ASTM E1618-10. Classifications were made using linear discriminant analysis, quadratic discriminant analysis (QDA), and soft independent modeling of class analogy (SIMCA). The model data sets iv were tested by cross-validation and used to classify fire debris samples. Correct classification rates were calculated for each data set. Classifier performance metrics were also calculated for the first step of the classification scheme which included false positive rates, true positive rates, and the precision of the method. The first step, which determines a sample to be positive or negative for ignitable liquid residue, is arguably the most important in the forensic application. Overall, the highest correct classification rates were achieved using QDA for the first step of the scheme and SIMCA for the remaining steps. In the first step of the classification scheme, correct classification rates of 95.3% and 89.2% were obtained using QDA to classify the crossvalidation test set and fire debris samples, respectively. For this step, the cross-validation test set resulted in a true positive rate of 96.2%, a false positive rate of 9.3%, and a precision of 98.2%. The fire debris data set had a true positive rate of 82.9%, a false positive rate of 1.3%, and a precision of 99.0%. Correct classifications rates of 100% were achieved for both data sets in the majority of the remaining steps which used SIMCA for classification. The lowest correct classification rate, 69.2%, was obtained for the fire debris samples in one of the final steps in the classification scheme. In this research, the first statistically valid error rates for fire debris analysis have been developed through cross-validation of large data sets. The fire debris analyst can use the automated method as a tool for detecting and classifying ignitable liquid residues in fire debris samples. The error rates reduce the subjectivity associated with the current methods and provide a level of confidence in sample classification that does not currently exist in forensic fire debris analysis.

No description available.

McMaster University DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY (2019) Hamilton, Ontario (Health Research Methods, Evidence, and Impact) TITLE: Measuring International Health Inequalities and Socioeconomic Status Using Household Survey Data AUTHOR: Mathieu J.P. Poirier, B.Sc., M.P.H. (McMaster University) SUPERVISOR: Dr. Michel Grignon NUMBER OF PAGES: xii, 231 / The methods underlying the quantification of health inequalities have profound consequences for measuring progress in achieving health for all. In Chapter two, associations between household wealth indices, income, and consumption were systematically compiled and different methods of wealth index calculation were evaluated for appropriateness of use in a variety of settings. Researchers are presented with a synthesis of existing evidence about the appropriateness of use of wealth indices in urban and rural areas, their robustness to changes in the asset mix, future applications, and advantages and disadvantages of primary competing methods of quantifying SES using household survey data. In Chapter three, international microdata were analyzed to evaluate how magnitudes of health inequality are affected by different methods of quantifying household socioeconomic status (SES), including income, consumption, and asset wealth. In Chapter four, the need for a transnational approach to measuring health inequalities was justified and the new method was developed using an empirical example. Substantively, these chapters develop the most complete evaluation of the association between the asset wealth, consumption, and income using both critical interpretive synthesis and microdata analysis, as well as the first meta-analysis evaluating changes in health inequality magnitudes according to the SES measure used over time and across country-income levels. The transnational analysis of health inequalities uncovered previously hidden health disparities in the island of Hispaniola, and detailed instructions for all methodological aspects of the new method were presented. The distribution of disease between nations, subnational regions, and urban-rural areas in Hispaniola were analyzed from 1994 to 2013, and the first relative geospatial wealth ranking between Haiti and the Dominican Republic was presented. Global health researchers should strive to measure the equity of health between people, and this sometimes requires analyzing populations that are not neatly contained by national boundaries. / Thesis / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) / This thesis investigates social inequalities in health and how to measure socioeconomic status (SES) using household surveys in a way that is robust across jurisdictions. It examines how wealth indices compare to income and consumption, and develops a new method to calculate transnational health inequalities. Chapter two conducts a comprehensive evaluation of evidence surrounding the use of wealth indices in urban and rural areas, robustness to changes in assets, future applications, and the advantages and disadvantages of the primary competing methods for quantifying household SES. The third chapter systematically evaluates how health inequality magnitudes evolve over time and across country-incomes according to SES measure. Finally, a transnational measurement of health inequalities was calculated for the island of Hispaniola in chapter four, uncovering the distribution of disease between nations, subnational regions, and urban-rural areas. Detailed instructions for all methodological aspects of the new transnational method are presented.

Den större ischiasskåran (incisura ischiadica major) är en inskärning i höftbenet som karakteriseras av morfologier, användbara för att estimera biologiskt kön. Slutsatser gjorda från okulära observationer kan variera beroende på utövare och därmed kan morfologiska metoder anses vara mindre tillförlitliga gentemot metriska metoder. Tillvägagångssättet för denna uppsats bestod av en jämförande studie mellan en metod som använder formanalys och en som använder vinkelgrad för att bedöma biologiskt kön, på den större ischiasskåran. I denna uppsats användes ett praktiskt tillvägagångssätt för att observera 33 höftben från Sankt Hans medeltida kyrkogård. Det osteologiska materialet var inlånat från Gotlands museum och det praktiska arbetet utfördes på plats på magasinet, under våren 2024. Undersökningsmaterialet avgränsades till att inkludera endast vuxna individer av både manligt och kvinnligt kön. Resultaten visade att det finns en korrelation mellan kurvan på inskärningen och biologiskt kön. I diskussionsdelen av uppsatsen diskuterades tillförlitlighet och användarvänlighet för de två metoderna samt hur de kan nyttjas i osteologiska sammanhang. / The greater sciatic notch (incisura ischiadica major) is an incision in the hip bone that is characterized by morphologies, useful to assess biological sex. Conclusions that are made from visual observations may vary between practitioners, and therefore, morphological methods can be less reliable than metric methods. The approach of this essay consisted of a comparative study between a method using shape analysis and one using angle degree to assess biological sex, on the greater sciatic notch. In this essay, a practical approach was applied to observe 33 hip bones from Sankt Hans medieval cemetery. The material was borrowed from Gotland’s Museum, and the practical work was performed on site, during spring of 2024. The studied material was delimitated to include only adult individuals consisting of both males and females. The results showed that there is a correlation between the curve of the incision and biological sex. In the discussion, the essay explored the reliability and user-friendliness of the two methods, along with their potential applications in osteological contexts.

Une taxonomie révisée et une connaissance des limites d’espèces demeurent toujours importantes dans les points chauds en biodiversité comme les Antilles où de nombreuses espèces endémiques sont retrouvées. Des limites d’espèces divergentes impliquent un différent nombre d’espèces retrouvées dans un écosystème, ce qui peut exercer une influence sur les décisions prises face aux enjeux de conservation. Les genres Gesneria et Rhytidophyllum qui forment les principaux représentants de la famille des Gesneriaceae dans les Antilles comprennent plusieurs taxons aux limites d’espèces ambigües et quelques espèces qui ont des sous-espèces reconnues. C’est le cas de Gesneria viridiflora (Decne.) Kuntze qui comprend quatre sous-espèces géographiquement isolées et qui présentent des caractères végétatifs et reproducteurs similaires et variables. Une délimitation d’espèces approfondie de ce complexe d’espèce est effectuée ici à partir d’une approche de taxonomie intégrative considérant des données morphologiques, génétiques et bioclimatiques. Les données morphologiques quantitatives et qualitatives obtenues à partir de spécimens d’herbier sont utilisées pour délimiter des groupes morphologiques à l’aide d’une analyse en coordonnées principales. Ces groupes sont ensuite testés à l’aide de séquences d’ADN de quatre régions nucléaires en utilisant une méthode bayesienne basée sur la théorie de la coalescence. Finalement, les occurrences et les valeurs de variables de température et de précipitation qui y prévalent sont utilisées dans une analyse en composantes principales bioclimatique pour comparer les groupes délimités morphologiquement et génétiquement. Les résultats de l’analyse morphologique multivariée supportent la distinction entre les groupes formés par les sous-espèces actuellement reconnues de G. viridiflora. Les résultats, incluant des données génétiques, suggèrent une distinction jusqu’ici insoupçonnée des populations du Massif de la Hotte au sud-ouest d’Haïti qui sont génétiquement plus rapprochées des populations de Cuba que de celles d’Hispaniola. Bioclimatiquement, les groupes délimités par les analyses morphologiques et génétiques sont distincts. L’approche de taxonomie intégrative a permis de distinguer cinq espèces distinctes plutôt que les quatre sous-espèces acceptées jusqu’à aujourd’hui. Ces espèces sont : G. acrochordonanthe, G. quisqueyana, G. sintenisii, G. sylvicola et G. viridiflora. Une carte de distribution géographique, un tableau de la nouvelle taxonomie applicable et une clé d’identification des espèces sont présentés. La nouvelle taxonomie déterminée dans cette étude démontre un endémisme insoupçonné dans plusieurs régions du point chaud en biodiversité des Antilles et souligne l’importance d’investiguer les limites d’espèces dans les groupes diversifiés comprenant des taxons aux limites d’espèces incomprises. / An accurate taxonomy and knowledge of species limits is of great importance in endemic species-rich biodiversity hotspots like the Caribbean. Indeed, conflicting species limits can alter biodiversity estimates and influence the decisions taken on conservation issues. The genera Gesneria and Rhytidophyllum constitute the main representatives of the Caribbean Gesneriaceae and comprise a few species with unclear boundaries as well as species having several recognized subspecies. Gesneria viridiflora (Decne.) Kuntze is a good example of the latter and consists of four geographically isolated subspecies that possess similar but variable vegetative and reproductive characters. We conducted a thorough investigation of species delimitation in this species complex using an integrative taxonomic approach that includes morphology, genetics and bioclimatic data. Qualitative and quantitative morphological data obtained from herbarium specimens were used to circumscribe morphologically distinct groups using a principal coordinates analysis. These groups were then tested at the genetic level using a Bayesian Phylogenetics and Phylogeography (BPP) species delimitation approach based on four nuclear regions. Bioclimatic multivariate analyses of temperature and precipitation variables obtained from occurrence data were used to compare the groups delimited by morphological and genetic data. The results suggest the presence of five distinct species in this complex. Four of these broadly correspond to the actually defined subspecies: G. quisqueyana, G. sintenisii, G. sylvicola and G. viridiflora. An additional highly endemic species was recognized, G. acrochordonanthe, that consists of the populations found at the Massif de la Hotte in Southwestern Haiti. A distribution map, a table of the new taxonomy and an identification key to the species are provided. The new taxonomy proposed in this study shows an unsuspected species endemism in some regions of the Caribbean biodiversity hotspot and underlines the importance of investigating species boundaries in diversified groups containing taxa with poorly understood boundaries.

Cette thèse concerne la modélisation de la dynamique des courbes des taux internationales avec prise en compte de plusieurs canaux de dépendance. A l’aide d’une nouvelle base de données des taux souverains internationaux, nous observons que le critère de la variabilité expliquée, proposé par la littérature, n’est pas capable de sélectionner une meilleure combinaison des facteurs décrivant la dynamique jointe des courbes des taux. Nous proposons une méthode nouvelle de section des facteurs fondée sur la maximisation de vraisemblance d’un modèle espace-état linéaire gaussien avec facteurs communs et locaux. Le problème d’identification associée est résolu d’une façon novatrice. En estimant différents combinaisons de pays, nous sélectionnons des deux facteurs globaux et trois locaux ayant un pouvoir prédictif des variables macro-économiques (activité économique et taux d’inflation) dans chaque économie considérée. Notre méthode nous permet aussi de détecter des facteurs cachés dans les rendements obligataires. Ils ne sont pas visibles à travers une analyse classique en composant principales des rendements obligataires et ils contribuent à la prévision du taux d’inflation et du taux de croissance de la production industrielle. / The aim of this thesis is to model the dynamics of international term structure of interest rates taking into consideration several dependence channels.Thanks to a new international Treasury yield curve database, we observe that the explained variability decision criterion, suggested by the literature, is not able to select the best combination of factors characterizing the joint dynamics of yield curves. We propose a new methodology based on the maximisation of the likelihood function of a Gaussian state-space model with common and local factors. The associated identification problem is solved in an innovative way. By estimating several sets of countries, we select two global (and three local) factors which are also useful to forecast macroeconomic variables in each considered economy.In addition, our method allows us to detect hidden factors in the international bond returns. They are not visible through a classical principal component analysis of expected bond returns but they are helpful to forecast inflation and industrial production. Keywords: International treasury yield curves, common and local factors, state-space models, EM algorithm, International bond risk premia, principal components.

From the Proceedings of the 1971 Meetings of the Arizona Section - American Water Resources Assn. and the Hydrology Section - Arizona Academy of Science - April 22-23, 1971, Tempe, Arizona / Statistical analyses of existing hydrologic records suffer from the problem that such records are of relatively short duration, and therefore may not necessarily be random samples of the infinite population of events. On the hypothesis that tree-ring series and runoff series respond to a common climatic signal or signals that permit prediction of annual runoff from annual ring-width index, tree-ring data are used to extend available runoff records backwards in time to permit more accurate estimates of the 3 most common statistics used in hydrology: the mean, the variance and the 1st order correlation. It is assumed that both series are generated by the climatic parameters of precipitation, temperature, evapotranspiration, seasonal regime and spatial distribution. Of major concern in the reconstruction of annual runoff series from tree-ring records was the difference in persistence within each of the 2 series. A matrix of the tree-ring data was constructed, lagged up to 3 times and principal components were extracted. The covariation in this matrix was then decomposed by extracting the Eigen-vectors, and multiple regression was then used to weight the respective series and the differences in persistence were determined. This method was applied to watersheds of diverse characteristics and improved estimates of the mean and variance were obtained.

No description available.

In der Arbeit wird eine Methodik einer zusammenhängenden Analyse und modellhaften Beschreibung der Verkehrssicherheit in städtischen Hauptstraßennetzen am Beispiel der Stadt Dresden entwickelt. Die dabei gewonnenen Modelle dienen der Abschätzung von Erwartungswerten von Unfallhäufigkeiten mit und ohne Personenschaden unter Berücksichtigung der Verkehrsbeteiligungsart. Die Grundlage bilden multivariate Regressionsmodelle auf Basis verallgemeinerter linearer Modelle (GLM). Die Verwendung verallgemeinerter Regressionsmodelle erlaubt eine Berücksichtigung von Verteilungen, die besser geeignet sind, den Unfallentstehungsprozess wiederzugeben, als die häufig verwendete Normalverteilung. Im konkreten Fall werden hierzu die Poisson-Verteilung sowie die negative Binomialverteilung verwendet. Um Effekte im Hauptverkehrsstraßennetz möglichst trennscharf abbilden zu können, werden vier grundsätzliche Netzelemente differenziert und das Netz entsprechend zerlegt. Unterschieden werden neben Streckenabschnitten und Hauptverkehrsknotenpunkten auch Annäherungsbereiche und Anschlussknotenpunkte. Die Kollektive der Knotenpunkte werden ferner in signalisierte und nicht-signalisierte unterteilt. Es werden zunächst Modelle unterschiedlicher Unfallkollektive getrennt für alle Kollektive der vier Netzelemente berechnet. Anschließend werden verschiedene Vorgehensweisen für eine Zusammenfassung zu Netzmodellen entwickelt. Neben der Verwendung verkehrstechnischer und infrastruktureller Größen als erklärende Variable werden in der Arbeit auch Kenngrößen zur Beschreibung der Umfeldnutzung ermittelt und im Rahmen der Regression einbezogen. Die Quantifizierung der Umfeldnutzung erfolgt mit Hilfe von Korrelations-, Kontingenz- und von Hauptkomponentenanalysen (PCA). Im Ergebnis werden Modelle präsentiert, die eine multivariate Quantifizierung erwarteter Unfallhäufigkeiten in Hauptverkehrsstraßennetzen erlauben. Die vorgestellte Methodik bildet eine mögliche Grundlage für eine differenzierte Sicherheitsbewertung verkehrsplanerischer Variantenabschätzungen. / A methodology is developed in order to predict the number of accidents within an urban main road network. The analysis was carried out by surveying the road network of Dresden. The resulting models allow the calculation of individual expectancy values for accidents with and without injury involving different traffic modes. The statistical modelling process is based on generalized linear models (GLM). These were chosen due to their ability to take into account certain non-normal distributions. In the specific case of accident counts, both the Poisson distribution and the negative binomial distribution are more suitable for reproducing the origination process than the normal distribution. Thus they were chosen as underlying distributions for the subsequent regressions. In order to differentiate overlaying influences, the main road network is separated into four basic elements: major intersections, road sections, minor intersections and approaches. Furthermore the major and minor intersections are additionally subdivided into signalised and non-signalised intersections. Separate models are calculated for different accident collectives for the various types of elements. Afterwards several methodologies for calculating aggregated network models are developed and analysed. Apart from traffic-related and infrastructural attributes, environmental parameters are derived taking into account the adjacent building structure as well as the surrounding land-use, and incorporated as explanatory variables within the regression. The environmental variables are derived from statistical analyses including correlation matrices, contingency tables and principal components analyses (PCA). As a result, a set of models is introduced which allows a multivariate calculation of expected accident counts for urban main road networks. The methodology developed can serve as a basis for a differentiated safety assessment of varying scenarios within a traffic planning process.