Turkish Compulsory Earthquake Insurance (ZDS) introduced after the 1999 Earthquakes aimed to lower financial burdens of the State and to promote safer building construction. High earthquake risk in Turkey necessitates risk mitigation, in line with the priority of the new international policy. Yet, the ZDS system operates without regard to risk mitigation, and it is far from being a compulsory condition. The ZDS system has low penetration ratios due to expectations of State-aid in the event of a disaster, which arise from perceived attributes of ZDS, according to the findings of the Zeytinburnu household survey. The ZDS system generates social inequalities because purchase of the ZDS contracts is voluntary. This is related to higher social statuses and general insurance purchase behavior, whereas insured homeowners in middle-lower income levels are observed to differ significantly from un-insured homeowners in their perception of the ZDS purchase as &lsquo / compulsory&rsquo / and as a form of &lsquo / social solidarity&rsquo / . Operation of the ZDS disregarding risk mitigation seems to promote fatalistic attitudes andTurkish Compulsory Earthquake Insurance (ZDS) introduced after the 1999 Earthquakes aimed to lower financial burdens of the State and to promote safer building construction. High earthquake risk in Turkey necessitates risk mitigation, in line with the priority of the new international policy. Yet, the ZDS system operates without regard to risk mitigation, and it is far from being a compulsory condition. The ZDS system has low penetration ratios due to expectations of State-aid in the event of a disaster, which arise from perceived attributes of ZDS, according to the findings of the Zeytinburnu household survey. The ZDS system generates social inequalities because purchase of the ZDS contracts is voluntary. This is related to higher social statuses and general insurance purchase behavior, whereas insured homeowners in middle-lower income levels are observed to differ significantly from un-insured homeowners in their perception of the ZDS purchase as &lsquo / compulsory&rsquo / and as a form of &lsquo / social solidarity&rsquo / . Operation of the ZDS disregarding risk mitigation seems to promote fatalistic attitudes and reluctance to conform with requirements of risk mitigation. Low penetration ratio and high earthquake risk threaten efficiency of the ZDS system and does not reduce burdens of the State. Based on survey findings, a more appropriate strategy for the achievement of resilience against earthquakes could be possible through the collaboration of the ZDS system with local administrations. It is observed that by means of a &lsquo / Grant Program&rsquo / , there may be abundant reason and evidence to achieve convertion of the ZDS system from a post-disaster loss compensation mechanism to a predisaster risk reduction benefactor. Supporting municipalities to produce urban risk maps could reduce risks by more accurate estimation of potential losses, and an extended coverage of the ZDS system to urban risks. Relationship analyses between homeowners&rsquo / attributes, perceptions and tendencies toward alternative policies indicate the necessity of introducing policies based risk-rated premiums. Homeowners are observed as requiring technical and financial assistance to take mitigation measures, decisions under individualized conditions, on the other hand, seem to reinforce fatalistic attitudes and reluctance due to the disregard of risk mitigation benefits and ZDS purchase. Waste of public resources and creation of social inequalities could be prevented by enhancing the capacities of local authorities to implement urban risk mitigation plans and community-based projects via a Grant Program. &lsquo / Relationship analyses&rsquo / of the attitudes of homeowners for alternative policies with respect to their attributes and perceptions revealed that a Grant Program could result in the perception of the ZDS system as a form of social solidarity in risk mitigation. This is to reduce fatalistic attitudes, and curb reluctance compared to individualized conditions of insurance purchase. As a result, willingness to mitigate risks through active participation and purchase of ZDS contracts, particularly among homeowners in the middle-lower socio-economic statuses are likely to expand leading to a resilience society.

Submitted by Odilon Jose de Oliveira Neto (professorodilon@yahoo.com.br) on 2013-09-27T20:34:42Z No. of bitstreams: 1 TESE_ODILON.pdf: 885119 bytes, checksum: 460d85982ff9b027e21ee9ef445337e1 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Vera Lúcia Mourão (vera.mourao@fgv.br) on 2013-09-27T20:50:10Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 TESE_ODILON.pdf: 885119 bytes, checksum: 460d85982ff9b027e21ee9ef445337e1 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-09-27T21:19:03Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 TESE_ODILON.pdf: 885119 bytes, checksum: 460d85982ff9b027e21ee9ef445337e1 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-09-20 / Several attempts of negotiation of future contracts and price indexes of beef cattle in Argentina and in Uruguay were frustrated along the years. The derivatives issued failed in a short period of time due to lack of liquidity. That scenery and other particularities of the live cattle spot market turned the administration of risk of prices into a problem for the economical agents of the meat chain. In this context, the following question emerged: the cross hedging with future contracts of Brazilian live cattle in the Brazilian Securities, Commodities and Futures Exchange (BM&FBovespa) is effective for the administration of risk of prices of beef steers in the Argentinian and Uruguayan spot market? In an effort to answer this question, it was proposed to verify if it is possible to mitigate the risk of the price volatility of the spot market of Argentinian and Uruguayan beef steers through of cross hedging in the futures market for Brazilian live cattle in the BM&FBovespa. For this, it was used static and dynamic models to estimate of the optimal cross hedge ratio and effectiveness of risk mitigation. The results of the hypothesis test of risk mitigating allow to assure that there are strong empirical evidences of effectiveness of the futures market of Brazilian live cattle in protection against the prices risk of the spot market of Argentinian and Uruguayan steers. Complementarily, it was analyzed the hypothesis of the futures market efficiency. The results present empirical evidence of a stochastic relationship common in long-term between spot and futures prices, and efficiency in predicting short-term price, which suggest that the future contracts of Brazilian live cattle in the BM&FBovespa allow adequate hedge of price for the Argentinian and Uruguayan steers in spot market. / Na Argentina e no Uruguai, diversas tentativas de negociação de contratos futuros e de índice de preços de carne bovina foram frustradas ao longo dos anos, tendo os derivativos lançados fracassado, em um curto espaço de tempo, por falta de liquidez. Esse cenário, somado a outras particularidades do mercado físico da carne bovina, torna o gerenciamento de risco de preços um problema para os agentes econômicos que atuam nessa cadeia produtiva. Nesse contexto, emergiu a seguinte questão: a proteção cruzada com contratos futuros de boi gordo brasileiro da Bolsa de Valores, Mercadorias e Futuros de São Paulo (BM&FBovespa) é efetiva para a administração do risco de preços dos novilhos de corte no mercado a vista argentino e uruguaio? Com a finalidade de responder a essa questão, propôs-se a verificar se é possível mitigar o risco da volatilidade de preços no mercado a vista dos novilhos de corte argentinos e uruguaios por meio do cross hedging no mercado futuro do boi gordo brasileiro na BM&FBovespa. Para tanto, foram utilizados modelos estáticos e dinâmicos de estimação da razão de cross hedge ótima e efetividade em mitigação do risco. Os resultados do teste de hipóteses de mitigação do risco permitiram assegurar que são fortes as evidências de efetividade do mercado futuro do boi gordo brasileiro na proteção contra o risco de preços do mercado a vista dos novilhos argentinos e uruguaios. Complementarmente, verificou-se a hipótese de eficiência do mercado futuro. Os resultados apresentaram evidências de um relacionamento estocástico comum no longo prazo entre os preços a vista e futuros, e de eficiência na predição dos preços no curto prazo, o que sugere que os contratos futuros de boi gordo brasileiro da BM&FBovespa permitem uma trava adequada de cotação-preço para os novilhos argentinos e uruguaios no mercado a vista.

This thesis study explores the existing knowledge management and sharing practices in donor organizations, particularly working in the developing countries. The potentional of knowledge management and sharing to facilitate development organizations in carrying out development work has been recognised in the literature. Literature presented mix of critique and appreciation to the existing efforts of donor agencies. Knowledge sharing platforms revolves around the country initiatives and donor agencies like UNDP and World Bank which are proactive in establishing these platforms for partner organizations. This research contributes practical insight to the question of delivery of these platforms, through an empirical investigation based on the development professionals' experiences. As earlier research shows enormous amount of literature on individual, team and organizational level knowledge sharing, this study sets prime focus on community level or external knowledge sharing, an area where there exist a dearth of emperical research or contributing literature on examing the role of sharing initiatives and possible contribution in improving risk management in development projects. Literature shows the potential of knowledge management and sharing practices, as their possible contribution in the global development practices and in bridging gap between North-South stakeholders. However, cultural, technological, organizational and individual level issues escalate with external level of knowledge sharing and thesis rightly, identifies success factors from the literature alongwith their viability from the professionals. It is even more inadequate when it comes to projects of donor organizations in under developed and developing countries. With 80% of documented failure rates of knowledge sharing systems, external knowledge sharing with partner organizations or network organizations is really not adequate and do not have supporting culture. As this whole process of sharing knowledge, heavily relies on the perceived motivation and willingness to share, study has tried to identify the challenges facing wider use of these sharing systems. Study also contributes with suggestions for knowledge management and sharing system developers, policy and decision makers and system users, to improve the overall contribution of knowledge sharing in better risk management. Apart from the cultural barriers, there are technical and policy level issues which need more concerted efforts to improve the use of these sharing systems by various organizations and individuals. / House No. 174-A, St. 61, I-8/3, Islamabad, Pakistan Contact: +92-336-5666065, Email: noman-1985@hotmail.com

This diploma thesis deals with an analysis of the credit process in small and medium enterprises. First part describes financial risks, to which banks are exposed with a special emphasis on a credit risk. The next chapter describes the process of a risk management, particularly its individual phases such as identification, measurement, securing and monitoring. The third part discusses each phase of the loan process that represents the risk mitigation strategy on the level of a single trade. In the forth part a loan application of a particular applicant is being thoroughly analysed. The last, fifth part sums up a development of conditions on a credit market in small and medium enterprises.

Le virus de l’hépatite E (HEV) est un agent zoonotique dont les porcs représentent le principal réservoir dans les pays industrialisés. Le présent projet de recherche a combiné études épidémiologiques, modélisation mathématique et sciences sociales pour proposer des leviers de réduction du risque d’exposition humaine au HEV par consommation de produits à base de porc. Deux essais expérimentaux et une étude en conditions naturelles ont mis en évidence le rôle majeur des co-infections immunomodulatrices dans la dynamique de l’infection par le HEV chez le porc, ces pathogènes intercurrents conduisant à une infection chronique par le HEV et à un risque augmenté de présence du virus dans le foie, le sang et les muscles des animaux abattus. Le développement d’un modèle intra-élevage, stochastique, individu-centré et multi-pathogènes, a permis de dégager des pistes de maîtrise à la fois zootechniques et sanitaires pour réduire la prévalence du virus en élevage. En complément, la conception d’un modèle inter-troupeaux a rendu possible l’analyse des facteurs de diffusion du virus dans un réseau d’élevages français. L’ensemble de ces mesures de gestion du HEV a été soumis à l’avis des organisations publiques et privées et des acteurs individuels de la filière porcine (éleveurs, conseillers, vétérinaires) par des approches de sciences humaines et sociales. Finalement, ce projet transversal et multi-disciplinaire a permis de définir des axes d’action tangibles et réalisables de gestion du HEV dans la filière porcine tout en apportant des contributions méthodologiques significatives en épidémiologie et en modélisation. / Hepatitis E virus (HEV) is a zoonotic pathogen whose main reservoir in industrialised countries is pigs. This research project combined epidemiological studies, mathematical modelling and social sciences to propose levers for reducing the risk of human exposure to HEV through the consumption of pork products. Two experimental trials and one study under natural conditions highlighted the major role of immunomodulating co-infections on the dynamics of HEV infection in pigs, as these intercurrent pathogens led to chronic HEV infection and an increased risk of the virus in the liver, blood and muscles of slaughtered animals. The development of a within-herd, stochastic, individual-based and multi-pathogen model has made it possible to identify both zootechnical and sanitary control measures to reduce the prevalence of the virus on farms. In addition, the design of a between-herd model has enabled to analyse the factors responsible for the spread of the virus in a network of French farms. All these HEV control measures have been submitted for the opinion of public and private organisations and individual players in the pig sector (farmers, farming advisors, veterinarians) through social science approaches. Finally, this transversal and multidisciplinary project made it possible to define tangible and achievable lines of action for the management of HEV in the pig sector while making significant methodological contributions in epidemiology and modelling.

Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithms are highly popular in the robotics field to solve complex problems, learn from dynamic environments and generate optimal outcomes. However, one of the main limitations of RL is the lack of model transparency. This includes the inability to provide explanations of why the output was generated. The explainability becomes even more crucial when RL outputs influence human decisions, such as in Human-Robot Collaboration (HRC) scenarios, where safety requirements should be met. This work focuses on the application of two explainability techniques, “Reward Decomposition” and “Autonomous Policy Explanation”, on a RL algorithm which is the core of a risk mitigation module for robots’ operation in a collaborative automated warehouse scenario. The “Reward Decomposition” gives an insight into the factors that impacted the robot’s choice by decomposing the reward function into sub-functions. It also allows creating Minimal Sufficient Explanation (MSX), sets of relevant reasons for each decision taken during the robot’s operation. The second applied technique, “Autonomous Policy Explanation”, provides a global overview of the robot’s behavior by answering queries asked by human users. It also provides insights into the decision guidelines embedded in the robot’s policy. Since the synthesis of the policy descriptions and the queries’ answers are in natural language, this tool facilitates algorithm diagnosis even by non-expert users. The results proved that there is an improvement in the RL algorithm which now chooses more evenly distributed actions and a full policy to the robot’s decisions is produced which is for the most part aligned with the expectations. The work provides an analysis of the results of the application of both techniques which both led to increased transparency of the robot’s decision process. These explainability methods not only built trust in the robot’s choices, which proved to be among the optimal ones in most of the cases but also made it possible to find weaknesses in the robot’s policy, making them a tool helpful for debugging purposes. / Algoritmer för förstärkningsinlärning (RL-algoritmer) är mycket populära inom robotikområdet för att lösa komplexa problem, att lära sig av dynamiska miljöer och att generera optimala resultat. En av de viktigaste begränsningarna för RL är dock bristen på modellens transparens. Detta inkluderar den oförmåga att förklara bakomliggande process (algoritm eller modell) som genererade ett visst returvärde. Förklarbarheten blir ännu viktigare när resultatet från en RL-algoritm påverkar mänskliga beslut, till exempel i HRC-scenarier där säkerhetskrav bör uppfyllas. Detta arbete fokuserar på användningen av två förklarbarhetstekniker, “Reward Decomposition” och “Autonomous policy Explanation”, tillämpat på en RL-algoritm som är kärnan i en riskreduceringsmodul för drift av samarbetande robotars på ett automatiserat lager. “Reward Decomposition” ger en inblick i vilka faktorer som påverkade robotens val genom att bryta ner belöningsfunktionen i mindre funktioner. Det gör det också möjligt att formulera en MSX (minimal sufficient explanation), uppsättning av relevanta skäl för varje beslut som har fattas under robotens drift. Den andra tillämpade tekniken, “Autonomous Policy Explanation”, ger en generellt prespektiv över robotens beteende genom att mänskliga användare får ställa frågor till roboten. Detta ger även insikt i de beslutsriktlinjer som är inbäddade i robotens policy. Ty syntesen av policybeskrivningarna och frågornas svar är naturligt språk underlättar detta en algoritmdiagnos även för icke-expertanvändare. Resultaten visade att det finns en förbättring av RL-algoritmen som nu väljer mer jämnt fördelade åtgärder. Dessutom produceras en fullständig policy för robotens beslut som för det mesta är anpassad till förväntningarna. Rapporten ger en analys av resultaten av tillämpningen av båda teknikerna, som visade att båda ledde till ökad transparens i robotens beslutsprocess. Förklaringsmetoderna gav inte bara förtroende för robotens val, vilket visade sig vara bland de optimala i de flesta fall, utan gjorde det också möjligt att hitta svagheter i robotens policy, vilket gjorde dem till ett verktyg som är användbart för felsökningsändamål.

В сложившейся экономической ситуации организации строительной отрасли резко нуждаются в проведении работы по разработке методических рекомендаций по организации управленческого учета. Системообразующим и неотъемлемым элементом управленческого учёта является управленческая отчётность. Однако в настоящее время не существует каких-либо специальных отраслевых методических рекомендаций по организации управленческого учета в фирмах строительной отрасли, а также какой- либо универсальной модели управленческой отчётности. Необходимо сформировать новый подход к механизму формирования управленческого учёта исходя из цели организации эффективно¬го функционирования деятельности строительной фирмы. Данная проблема для строительства довольно значима, и в настоящее время необходимо постоянно совершенствовать отдельные элементы учетно-аналитической системы, основу которой составляет управленческий учёт. / Drastically need to work on the development of methodological recommendations on the organization of management accounting. The backbone and an integral element of management accounting is management accounting. However, at present there are no industry-specific methodical recommendations on the organization of management accounting in companies of the construction industry, as well as any universal model of management reporting. It is necessary to create a new approach to the mechanism of formation of management accounting based on the goals of the organization and effective functioning of the activities of the construction company. The problem for construction is quite important and currently it is necessary to continuously improve the individual elements of accounting and analytical system, which is based on management accounting.

In recent years, the frequency of disruptive events in supply chains has increased. This is partly due to the fact that supply chains are more globalized and more complex, with deeper tiering among suppliers. This makes the supply chain more vulnerable to risks. Supply chain risks that come with the dependencies of global suppliers have been evident due to unexpected global events such as the Covid-19 pandemic, the obstruction in the Suez Canal, and the Russia-Ukraine war. To mitigate supply chain risks, a company needs to have a resilient supply chain. Volvo Construction Equipment, a world-leading manufacturer of premium construction equipment, has experienced some particularly challenging years due to global occurrences with material shortages, capacity constraints, and supply routes disruption. This has built up stress in the organization, both among processes and employees. To be able to plan for the coming years of high uncertainty, Volvo CE wants to investigate how they can anticipate and mitigate various risks and resist market fluctuations to create a more resilient supply chain. Therefore the purpose of the research was formulated as: The purpose of the research is to suggest how Volvo Construction Equipment AB can mitigate supply chain risks to secure the future supply chain in a volatile market. To facilitate the fulfillment of the research’s purpose, three research questions were developed concerning risk identification, assessing resilience capabilities, and assessing risk mitigation strategies. The first research question, RQ1, identified Volvo CE’s supply chain risks and the vulnerability of the risks. The supply chain risks were identified through focused group discussions with Volvo CE employees and the most vulnerable risks were determined through a survey with responses from the participants in the group discussions. Three risks were considered the most vulnerable in Volvo CE’s supply chain; lack of raw material and component shortage, lack of labor and competence in production at supplier, and shutdown of supplier factory due to unexpected events. The second research question, RQ2, answered which resilience capabilities Volvo CE possesses today and which should be improved. The resilience capabilities were assessed qualitatively through semi-structured interviews. The interview answers were then interpreted into what SCRES elements Volvo CE possess. It was concluded that all resilience capabilities can be improved but two out of five capabilities, ability to anticipate and ability to recover, were considered to have the most improvement potential as they contain a large proportion of SCRES elements that are not fully possessed today. Through semi-structured interviews and a cross-question analysis with RQ1 and RQ2, the third research question, RQ3, regarding the assessment of risk mitigation strategies could be answered. Based on the result of all research questions, five risk mitigation strategies were suggested for Volvo CE. These aimed to improve Volvo CE’s resilience capabilities with the most improvement potential to be able to mitigate the most vulnerable supply chain risks. The suggested risk mitigation strategies were supply chain understanding, SCRM culture, supplier relationship, backup supplier, and scenario planning. By working with these strategies, Volvo CE could significantly increase its resilience and thus create an organization better able to mitigate supply chain risks to secure the future supply in a volatile market.

Hydrogeological hazards are quite diffuse rainfall-induced phenomena that affect mountain regions and can severely impact these territories, producing damages and sometimes casualties. For this reason, hydrogeological risk reduction is crucial. Mitigation strategies aim to reduce hydrogeological risk to an acceptable level and can be classified into structural and non-structural measures. This work focuses on enhancing some non-structural risk mitigation measures for mountain areas: debris-flow rainfall thresholds, as a part of an Early Warning System (EWS), multivariate rainfall scenarios with multi-hazard mapping purpose and public awareness. Regarding debris-flow rainfall thresholds, an innovative calibration method, a suitable uncertainty analysis and a proper validation process are developed. The Backward Dynamical Approach (BDA), a physical-based calibration method, is introduced and a threshold is obtained for a study area. The BDA robustness is then tested by assessing the uncertainty in the threshold estimate. Finally, the calibrated threshold's reliability and its possible forecast use are assessed using a proper validation process. The findings set the stage for using the BDA approach to calibrate debris-flow rainfall thresholds usable in operational EWS. Regarding hazard mapping, a multivariate statistical model is developed to construct multivariate rainfall scenarios with a multi-hazards mapping purpose. A confluence between a debris-flow-prone creek and a flood-prone river is considered. The multivariate statistical model is built by combining the Simplified Metastatistical Extreme Value approach and a copula approach. The obtained rainfall scenarios are promising to be used to build multi-hazard maps. Finally, the public awareness within the LIFE FRANCA (Flood Risk ANticipation and Communication in the Alps) European project is briefly considered. The project action considered in this work focuses on training and communication activities aimed at providing a multidisciplinary view of hydrogeological risk through the holding of courses and seminars.

Over the past decade, the Swedish pension funds AP1, AP2, AP3, and AP4 have significantly increased their capital allocation towards unlisted real estate. This study explores the investment strategies of these AP funds, examining the methods used in asset class investments, risk mitigation measures, responses to macroeconomic threats, and investment returns. Employing a mixed-methods approach, the research integrates semi-structured interviews with fund representatives and statistical analysis of data from annual reports.  Findings indicate that the AP funds have capitalized on post-financial crisis real estate market dynamics, particularly evident in investments initiated in the years after the crisis. Notably, AP1, AP3, and AP4 have gained good returns through sector diversification, contrasting with AP2’s less successful geographic diversification. Investments are primarily direct or joint ventures in unlisted real estate firms, avoiding PERE-funds due to their shorter holding periods and high costs. Risk is mitigated through extended holding periods, strategic partner selection, board involvement, and analysis of megatrends. The low risk-free rate environment that has been in Sweden for the last decade has significantly supported the unrealized returns from the investments. Future capital allocation should focus on non-competing sectors, reinvestments in existing assets, and identification of new trends to enhance sector investability. / Under det senaste decenniet har de svenska pensionsfonderna AP1, AP2, AP3 och AP4 ökat sin tillgångsallokering avsevärt i onoterade fastigheter. Denna studie utforskar investeringsstrategierna för dessa AP-fonder och granskar de metoder som används i investeringarna i tillgångsklassen, vilka åtgärder som görs för riskminimering samt hur makroekonomiska hot minimeras och vilka avkastningarna investeringarna gett. Genom att använda en blandad metod använder studien semistrukturerade intervjuer med fondrepresentanter och statistisk analys av data från årsredovisningar. Resultaten visar att AP-fonderna har kapitaliserat på dynamiken på fastighetsmarknaden efter finanskrisen, särskilt tydligt i investeringar som initierades åren efter krisen. Noterbart är att AP1, AP3 och AP4 har uppnått betydande avkastningar genom sektordiversifiering, i kontrast till AP2:s mindre framgångsrika geografiska diversifiering. Investeringarna sker främst direkt eller via klubbstrukturer i onoterade fastighetsföretag, där PERE-fonder undviks på grund av deras kortare hållperioder och oproportionerliga kostnader. Riskminimering uppnås genom långa investeringshorisonter, strategiskt partnerurval, styrelseengagemang och analys av megatrender. Den låga riskfria räntemiljön som varit i Sverige det senaste decenniet har avsevärt stöttat de orealiserade avkastningarna från investeringarna. Framtida kapitalallokeringar bör fokusera på icke-konkurrerande sektorer, återinvesteringar i befintliga bolag och identifiering av nya trender för att hitta sektorer som blivit investerbara.