nÃo hà / O presente trabalho analisa a dinÃmica da liquidez da economia brasileira no perÃodo de janeiro/1995 a junho/2014, considerando os possÃveis efeitos das crises internacionais e de calendÃrio eleitoral sobre os meios de pagamento disponÃveis. Aplicando um modelo autorregressivo com valor limite endÃgeno aos dados das sÃries temporais de moedas e crÃditos buscadas no Banco Central do Brasil, foram obtidas estimativas que permitem inferir que a dinÃmica da liquidez da economia segue uma tendÃncia explosiva e que, muito embora nÃo esteja consistentemente relacionada a choques de crises internacionais e de cenÃrio polÃtico, a sensibilidade desses agregados monetÃrios aos choques macroeconÃmicos à perceptÃvel apenas em seus meios com maior liquidez, os quais apresentaram mudanÃa de regime no perÃodo estudado. Em conjunto, os resultados sugerem ainda que a situaÃÃo econÃmica esperada no longo prazo à estÃvel e que sÃo fracos os indÃcios de que a liquidez da economia seja afetada pelo calendÃrio eleitoral. / This paper analyzes the Brazilian economy liquidity dynamics from January 1995 and June 2014, taking into consideration the possible effects of international crisis and elections around available payment vehicles. Applying an endogenous threshold autoregressive model of cash time series and credits from Brazilian Central Bank, estimates were captured so that allows conclude that the economic liquidity dynamic given that tends to explode, however is not tied to the international crisis and the political scenario, the sensitivity around macroeconomics scenarios is perceived among its vehicles with more liquidity which shows regime change to the studied time. The results show that it is expected a stable economic scenario in long term and that there is a very low probability that the economy liquidity will be affected by the elections.

No description available.

No description available.

本文目的在於探討喬治亞、烏克蘭與吉爾吉斯等三國，其政權替換的經過。政權替換為什麼會發生？這三個國家政權替換發生的情況有何不同？而反對勢力又是如何出現？一些共同的成功因素在個別國家有無程度上的不同？經由文獻回顧，作者指出這一波政權替換發生的主要因素：選舉競爭性的來源、反對勢力與政權正當性危機的出現、外國影響與獲得資訊能力。 本文認為這三個國家在面臨不同的背景條件與政治環境之下，透過選舉的舉行，使各個國家出現不同的反對勢力起源，形成對當權者的挑戰。而選舉舞弊造成統治者的正當性危機，加上在不同程度的資訊獲得能力影響下的群眾示威，導致政權危在旦夕。最後，示威群眾的策略與統治者的個人決斷，促成了政權替換。 / The purpose of this study is to explore the process of regime change in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan. Why did regime change happen? What are the differences between these three cases? How did the opposition emerge? Did the common factors of successful regime change have varied degree in each country? Through a literature review, the author points out the main factors of this wave of regime change: the source of election competitiveness, the emergence of opposition vis-à-vis the regime legitimacy crisis, and foreign influence of information accessibility. The thesis argues that the elections held in these three countries with different backgrounds and political environments contributed to various origins of opposition forces against the authorities. Electoral frauds led to the crisis of regime legitimacy. In addition, under the influence of different level of information accessibility, public demonstration put the ruling regime into an imminent crisis. Finally, the strategies of mass protest and the incumbents’ decisions resulted in regime change.

A dissertação analisa as reformas no setor de inteligência governamental promovidas após a chamada Primavera Árabe em três países árabes e norte-africanos – Egito, Argélia e Tunísia –, especialmente aquelas empreendidas no âmbito das agências de inteligência reconhecidas enquanto polícias políticas: aquelas responsáveis pela repressão interna, as quais atuam politicamente, contando com margens de autonomia e com capacidade de penetração entre os quadros da sociedade civil. O objetivo é contrariar o argumento levantado por diversos analistas, que afirmam que tais países conheceram, no pós-Primavera, a verdadeiras mudanças de regime. Nossa hipótese de pesquisa é justamente a manutenção dos principais elementos definidores dos regimes anteriores às manifestações populares de 2010 e 2011, notadamente do papel político a cargo das forças de segurança e da atuação política das agências de inteligência, os quais não permitem que argumentemos pela mudança dos regimes. Para tanto, promovemos uma análise das dinâmicas históricas destes países, atentando especialmente para os momentos de criação e de mutação/reforma destas agências. Metodologicamente, portanto, nos inscrevemos em uma abordagem histórico-comparativa. Finalmente, a maneira como as agências analisadas foram reformadas, sem o estabelecimento de medidas de transparência, ou de controles externos aos serviços de inteligência, parece confirmar nossa hipótese de pesquisa. / The monograph analyzes the reform in the intelligence sector promoted after the so-called Arab Spring in three Arab and North African countries – Egypt, Algeria and Tunisia – especially those undertaken within the framework of the intelligence agencies recognized as political polices: those responsible for internal repression, who acted politically, counting on marginal autonomy and with the capacity for penetration among the cadres of civil society. Our aim is to contradict the argument put forward by several analysts, who affirm that those countries experienced, in the post-Arab Spring, real processes of regime changes. Our hypothesis is precisely the maintenance of key elements which defined the regimes prior to the popular demonstrations of 2010 and 2011, notably the political role of the security forces and the politicization of the intelligence agencies, which do not allow us to argue for the regime‟s changes. To do so, we promote an analysis of the historical dynamics of these countries, paying special attention to the creation and mutation/reform of the intelligence agencies. Methodologically, therefore, we subscribe to a historical-comparative approach. Finally, the way in which the agencies analyzed have been reformed, without the establishment of transparency measures or external controls of the intelligence services, seems to confirm our hypothesis.

A dissertação analisa as reformas no setor de inteligência governamental promovidas após a chamada Primavera Árabe em três países árabes e norte-africanos – Egito, Argélia e Tunísia –, especialmente aquelas empreendidas no âmbito das agências de inteligência reconhecidas enquanto polícias políticas: aquelas responsáveis pela repressão interna, as quais atuam politicamente, contando com margens de autonomia e com capacidade de penetração entre os quadros da sociedade civil. O objetivo é contrariar o argumento levantado por diversos analistas, que afirmam que tais países conheceram, no pós-Primavera, a verdadeiras mudanças de regime. Nossa hipótese de pesquisa é justamente a manutenção dos principais elementos definidores dos regimes anteriores às manifestações populares de 2010 e 2011, notadamente do papel político a cargo das forças de segurança e da atuação política das agências de inteligência, os quais não permitem que argumentemos pela mudança dos regimes. Para tanto, promovemos uma análise das dinâmicas históricas destes países, atentando especialmente para os momentos de criação e de mutação/reforma destas agências. Metodologicamente, portanto, nos inscrevemos em uma abordagem histórico-comparativa. Finalmente, a maneira como as agências analisadas foram reformadas, sem o estabelecimento de medidas de transparência, ou de controles externos aos serviços de inteligência, parece confirmar nossa hipótese de pesquisa. / The monograph analyzes the reform in the intelligence sector promoted after the so-called Arab Spring in three Arab and North African countries – Egypt, Algeria and Tunisia – especially those undertaken within the framework of the intelligence agencies recognized as political polices: those responsible for internal repression, who acted politically, counting on marginal autonomy and with the capacity for penetration among the cadres of civil society. Our aim is to contradict the argument put forward by several analysts, who affirm that those countries experienced, in the post-Arab Spring, real processes of regime changes. Our hypothesis is precisely the maintenance of key elements which defined the regimes prior to the popular demonstrations of 2010 and 2011, notably the political role of the security forces and the politicization of the intelligence agencies, which do not allow us to argue for the regime‟s changes. To do so, we promote an analysis of the historical dynamics of these countries, paying special attention to the creation and mutation/reform of the intelligence agencies. Methodologically, therefore, we subscribe to a historical-comparative approach. Finally, the way in which the agencies analyzed have been reformed, without the establishment of transparency measures or external controls of the intelligence services, seems to confirm our hypothesis.

A dissertação analisa as reformas no setor de inteligência governamental promovidas após a chamada Primavera Árabe em três países árabes e norte-africanos – Egito, Argélia e Tunísia –, especialmente aquelas empreendidas no âmbito das agências de inteligência reconhecidas enquanto polícias políticas: aquelas responsáveis pela repressão interna, as quais atuam politicamente, contando com margens de autonomia e com capacidade de penetração entre os quadros da sociedade civil. O objetivo é contrariar o argumento levantado por diversos analistas, que afirmam que tais países conheceram, no pós-Primavera, a verdadeiras mudanças de regime. Nossa hipótese de pesquisa é justamente a manutenção dos principais elementos definidores dos regimes anteriores às manifestações populares de 2010 e 2011, notadamente do papel político a cargo das forças de segurança e da atuação política das agências de inteligência, os quais não permitem que argumentemos pela mudança dos regimes. Para tanto, promovemos uma análise das dinâmicas históricas destes países, atentando especialmente para os momentos de criação e de mutação/reforma destas agências. Metodologicamente, portanto, nos inscrevemos em uma abordagem histórico-comparativa. Finalmente, a maneira como as agências analisadas foram reformadas, sem o estabelecimento de medidas de transparência, ou de controles externos aos serviços de inteligência, parece confirmar nossa hipótese de pesquisa. / The monograph analyzes the reform in the intelligence sector promoted after the so-called Arab Spring in three Arab and North African countries – Egypt, Algeria and Tunisia – especially those undertaken within the framework of the intelligence agencies recognized as political polices: those responsible for internal repression, who acted politically, counting on marginal autonomy and with the capacity for penetration among the cadres of civil society. Our aim is to contradict the argument put forward by several analysts, who affirm that those countries experienced, in the post-Arab Spring, real processes of regime changes. Our hypothesis is precisely the maintenance of key elements which defined the regimes prior to the popular demonstrations of 2010 and 2011, notably the political role of the security forces and the politicization of the intelligence agencies, which do not allow us to argue for the regime‟s changes. To do so, we promote an analysis of the historical dynamics of these countries, paying special attention to the creation and mutation/reform of the intelligence agencies. Methodologically, therefore, we subscribe to a historical-comparative approach. Finally, the way in which the agencies analyzed have been reformed, without the establishment of transparency measures or external controls of the intelligence services, seems to confirm our hypothesis.

Diploma thesis Relation between the concepts of humanitarian intervention and regime change: the case of Libya is concerned with the study of military interventions after 1989 in the context of current theoretical discourse. It's main goal is assessing the 2011 NATO operation Unified Protector. The key question of thesis is, whether the intervention, due to the extensive reading of UNSC Resolution 1973, mandate still can be described in the terms of humanitarian intervention concept (in accordance with international law paradigm of R2P), or whether it rather had been a regime change. Based on primary data analysis, the paper shows that actors (most significantly the USA, France and Great Britain) contributing with a theoretically impartial military force, despite the immediate positive humanitarian outcome, helped significantly to overthrow the regime of Muammar Gaddafi. Due to the specifics of the operation, it can rather be described as a hidden regime change - a definition is also offered in the thesis. Based on the theoretical framework created by Michael Reisman, the author also assesses legitimacy of such deeds. The text is divided into three main chapters. Chapter one gives an account of broader context of just war theories, humanitarian intervention and regime change concepts. In the second...

Thesis (Ph.D. (Political Science)) -- University of Limpopo, 2022 / Much of the literature on the recent Libyan conflict is framed through a Westernised lens. This is an epistemic and ontological setback for Africa. Hence, the transition from the Organisation of African Unity (OAU) to African Union (AU) with the principle of, “African solution to African problems,” seemed to be a plausible one after a number of imported solutions and western powers’ interventions that often left the continent worse off than before. Syria shared a similar situation with Libya but the intervention from the western powers differed significantly. Against this setback, this study employs Afrocentricity as an alternative theoretical lens to examine the incompatibilities of North Atlantic Treaty Organisation’s (NATO) involvement in the Libyan conflict within the context of the African Agenda. The objectives of the study were to evaluate the relations between AU and UNSC on the Libyan crisis, how the UNSC Res 1973 was understood and implemented AU and NATO and to reflect on the implications of NATO led military intervention under the pretext of Responsibility to Protect civilians in Libya. The involvement of NATO’s military force sealed not only the fate of Libyans with no long term plan to the resolution of the crisis but also severely restricted and undermined the efforts of AU in Libya. The efforts of AU and its roadmap were completely negated when NATO forces started their air raids. Divisions were clearly evident within NATO members with Germany and Netherlands opposing the motives of NATO. The intervention by NATO facilitated regime change and flooded the region with illicit trade in arms and goods, harboured armed extremists’ groups, and terrorists. The cauldron of all of the above effectively destabilised the region. It also exposed deep divisions within AU members, lack of coordination and the effects of limited resources on operations that could be handled continentally to avoid unsavoury interventions. In relation to the Libyan crisis, AU and NATO had divergent interests and could not cooperate in finding long lasting solutions. AU should in the future be proactive in resolving conflicts with the continent and should be prepared to fund its own operations in order to reduce dependence on foreign assistance in similar situations in the future.

2003年，喬治亞民眾因不滿政府選舉舞弊而爆發玫瑰革命，翌年，烏克蘭同樣因民眾不滿選舉舞弊而爆發橙色革命，兩者革命性質成因相同，且都成功推翻舊有領導人，被學者認為是第三波民主化浪潮之一，稱為顏色革命；2010年，中東國家突尼西亞爆發茉莉花革命，翌年，這把革命之火延燒到臨近國家埃及，造成原有領導人下台。兩波革命發生的時間、地點和成因都不同，但兩波革命發生過程中，大眾媒介皆扮演了重要角色，本文先探討大眾媒介跟政權更替的關聯性，從而探討大眾媒介如何對政權更替造成影響。 　　顏色革命國家跟阿拉伯之春國家的政權體制、文化、宗教等背景等全然不同，但同樣發生民眾不滿現況而上街抗議，最後促成執政者下台，本文認為，革命之所以成功，大眾媒介是重要推手，因其傳播速度快、無時效性、無地域性，特別是社群媒體，透過社群媒體，民眾動員更迅速，消息的傳播也更為快速。 / This thesis focus on the role of media in the series of revolutions in 2003-2004, which are called “Color Revolution” and the Arab Spring, which had had been broke out from 2010. Some scholars call the revolution in Georgia is “Rose Revolution”, in Ukraine – Orange Revolution, those people successfully overthrow their leader, for this reason, most of them deeply believe that to be the one of the Third Waves of Democratization. 　　In 2010, Tunisia burst into a revolution and the fire spreads Egypt, the regime also had been overthrow by people. Although the causes of these revolutions are totally different, they have a common point – mass media. 　　This thesis argues that mass media play an important role in these revolutions, first of all interpret the relationship between mass media and regime, and then analyze that the mass media how to lead to regime change.