A questão da securitização das migrações, enquanto problema de pesquisa, surgiu no contexto dos debates acerca da ampliação do conceito de segurança que tomou corpo no pós-Guerra Fria, dadas as grandes transformações que se sucederam a este evento-chave da política internacional contemporânea. No caso da fronteira Estados Unidos-México, este é um fenômeno que, de fato, pode ser observado desde o final dos anos 1970, tendo atingido o seu ápice no pós-Onze de Setembro. A partir deste cenário, o objetivo do presente trabalho de pesquisa é o de analisar a dinâmica da securitização dos fluxos migratórios no contexto da fronteira Estados Unidos-México; em especial, o caso dos imigrantes indocumentados, que são o alvo primário das práticas securitizantes. Para tanto, será empregado o ferramental teórico desenvolvido pela Escola de Copenhague; em especial, a teoria de securitização e o conceito de segurança societal. Ao final, buscar-se-á problematizar a questão, tendo-se em vista as reflexões desenvolvidas ao longo do trabalho, bem como avaliar as possibilidades de desenvolvimento da mesma, assumindo como pressuposto que o ideal seria a progressiva desecuritização do tema e a adoção de uma política migratória, por parte dos EUA, mais moderna, pragmática e humana, e que a questão da segurança fosse tratada separadamente, considerando a questão migratória mas sem elevá-la ao nível do excepcional, que é o que justifica a securitização, a qual tem um enorme potencial para gerar, nesta seara, graves consequências de caráter humanitário. / The securitization of migrations issue as a research problem has arisen in the context of the debates on broadening the concept of security in the post-Cold War era, taking in consideration the significant changes that followed this key-event in the contemporary international politics. In the case of the United States-Mexico border, this is a phenomenon that, in fact, can be observed since the late 1970s, having reached its apex in the post-09/11. In this scenario, the aim of the current research work is to assess the dynamics of the securitization of migrations flows in the context of the United States-Mexico border; mainly, the case of the undocumented immigrants, who are the primary targets of the securitization practices. Theoretical methodology developed by the Copenhagen School; mainly the securitization theory and the concept of societal security, will be utilized as assessment tools in the current research work. At the end, the objective will be to problematize the question, taking in consideration the reflections raised during the research work, as well as evaluating the development possibilities, assuming as an ideal scenario the progressive desecuritization and the adoption of a more modern, pragmatic, and human migratory policy by the United States; and that the security issue be treated separately, considering the migratory issue but without elevating it to the exceptional level, which justifies the securitization, and has an enormous potential of generating severe humanitarian consequences in this field.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:47Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ECO - Rogerio A Santana.pdf: 613532 bytes, checksum: b583de22e59a71fe696c639f9b08a63e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2006-10-20 / This paper has the objective to investigate in which extension the securitization made through Receivables Investment Fund ( Fundo de Investimento em Direitos Creditórios FIDC ) could be considered as a viable alternative for enterprises to gather financing resources. It is essential for the development of any economy the existence of private financing mechanisms that allows companies to supply their financial needs in favorable conditions, either regarding costs or operations deadlines, and the securitization is one of these mechanisms. In order to support the proposed analysis, some contributions from authors that have contributed for the comprehension of the questions that involved financing operations will be presented, who are either aligned to post-Keynesian schools of thought, which emphasizes the Theory of Monetary Circuit and the Theory of Financial Fragility; or are disciples of new-Keynesianism, with particular relevance to the Theory of Credit Rationing. In order to achieve the initially proposed objective, it will be performed an empirical data collection concerning FIDC established in the Market over a period of time that ranges from 2002, the year in which the first fund was established, until the end of 2005, whose results will therefore be displayed with the assistance of descriptive statistics, and will summarize the main characteristics of the operations performed over this period of time, those which will be compared to the collected data regarding other existing financing mechanisms from Credit and Capital Markets / O presente trabalho tem como principal objetivo verificar até que ponto a securitização de recebíveis, por meio dos Fundos de Investimento em Direitos Creditórios FIDC, pode ser considerada uma alternativa viável de captação de recursos para o financiamento das empresas. A existência de mecanismos privados de financiamento que permitam às empresas captar os recursos de que necessitam em condições favoráveis, tanto no que diz respeito aos custos como também aos prazos das operações, é de fundamental importância para desenvolvimento de qualquer economia do mundo e os Fundos de Investimento em Direitos Creditórios colocam-se como um desses mecanismos. Para fundamentar a análise proposta, serão apresentadas algumas contribuições de autores que contribuíram para o entendimento da problemática que envolve as operações de financiamento, os quais estão alinhados às correntes do pensamento econômico póskeynesiana, destacando as teorias do circuito monetário e da fragilidade financeira, e novokeynesiana, com destaque para a teoria do racionamento de crédito. Buscando atingir o objetivo inicialmente proposto, será realizado um levantamento de dados empíricos sobre os fundos constituídos no mercado durante o período que vai de 2002, ano em que foi lançado o primeiro fundo, até o final do ano de 2005, cujos resultados serão apresentados com o uso de estatística descritiva e trarão as principais características das operações realizadas durante esse período, as quais serão confrontadas com informações coletadas sobre outros mecanismos de financiamento existentes nos mercados de crédito e de capitais

The state of Arizona became the main corridor for unauthorised migration into the United States in the early 2000s. A security approach to the issue at the state and local levels of policymaking became increasingly marked later in that decade. This escalation challenged the longstanding settlement in the United States that immigration was an exclusively federal matter, but occurred during a time when, by traditional measures, the unauthorised entry problem was easing. Such a development raises important questions about why security is chosen as a policy approach, highlighting the need to understand the securitization of immigration as a matter of political rationality. This thesis uses recent immigration politics in Arizona as a case study in order to examine why policymakers treat an issue like immigration as a security issue, when other interpretations are available. This thesis provides a detailed historical narrative of the evolution of migration and border-security politics at these levels of government in Arizona from 2004, when a broad political consensus began to emerge that there was a security problem on the international border which the state had to act to address, to 2011, when the then-years-long trend of securitizing immigration at the state level was abruptly halted. Taking an interpretivist approach to understanding policymaking, this thesis employs semi-structured elite interviews with state and local-level policymakers in Arizona, and extensive analysis of media and government documents. This research contributes originally to knowledge in two main ways. First, it furthers the migration politics field by advancing its understanding of the securitization of migration, and particularly the phenomenon of parties across the political spectrum coming to support security approaches towards, and restriction of, immigration. This thesis thoroughly explains the occurrence of this phenomenon in a major case, identifying the elite political logics, strategies, and understandings that were instrumental in the decisions that composed this process. Second, this thesis contributes to a developing security-studies literature that conceptualises securitization not as an “exceptional” form of politics, but as driven by “normal” political considerations. This research identifies how competitive democratic political logics produced phenomena usually ascribed by securitization theory to exceptionalism, including the narrowed field of contestation around security issues, and the adoption of policies that would previously have been considered extreme. It also examines how, in this case, securitization was successfully contested democratically. In this way, this thesis contributes toward the development of a concept of “security politics.”

Submitted by Filipe dos Santos (fsantos@pucsp.br) on 2018-07-05T12:38:31Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Cláudio de Araujo Ferreira.pdf: 7145517 bytes, checksum: 8c7b326ce9b38909db38bf44d6195f4c (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-07-05T12:38:32Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Cláudio de Araujo Ferreira.pdf: 7145517 bytes, checksum: 8c7b326ce9b38909db38bf44d6195f4c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-04-25 / This paper aims to discuss the transactions of securitization of Overdue Public Tax Debt and its challenges. It discusses initially the role of State; the main authors and philosophers about this subject; and also applicates it to the Brazilian State. Additionally it is discussed the deterioration of the Brazilian public debt; the potential amount of Overdue Public Tax Debt of the public entities and to present a “Project of Law” that seeks to solve the existing conflicts of Law in the Brazilian legislation that do not permit the public entities to proceed with it that could be an important source of funds to the Brazilian public entities. We shall discus along it topics such as the role of the Governments, formation of Brazilian Estate, dylema of Moral Hazard due to the non charge of overdue taxes, securitization of assets among others / A presente pesquisa possui como objetivo tratar das operações de securitização de dívida ativa e seus desafios. Para tanto, trata inicialmente da visão de Estado e seu papel, abordando os principais autores e filósofos sobre o assunto; discute também esse tema no âmbito do Estado brasileiro. Antes de adentrar no escopo descrito inicialmente acima, é desenvolvido o tema da deterioração das contas públicas brasileiras nos últimos anos; do potencial de dívida ativa dos entes púbicos; dos conceitos de dívida ativa e securitização e por fim busca apresentar como conclusão um projeto de lei que consiga equacionar a antinomia de norma existente em nosso ordenamento jurídico que inviabiliza as operações de securitização de Dívida Ativa, as quais poderiam ser uma importante fonte de geração de riqueza para o Estado brasileiro. Para tal, aborda temas como o papel do Estado, formação do Estado brasileiro, dilema de Moral Hazard pela não cobrança de tributos, conceito de Dívida Ativa, securitização de ativos, entre outros

Apesar de a moradia ser um dos direitos do cidadão esboçados na constituição, parte da população não tem condições de alocar parte de sua renda para o pagamento do encargo mensal requerido num financiamento. No Brasil, o mercado de crédito é prejudicado pelo ambiente legal. Em função da desconexão entre a produção do bem imobiliário e a capacidade de poupança do adquirente, é fundamental que o adquirente possa contar com um financiamento pós-produção, permitindo a adequação de sua capacidade de pagamento. Para tal, foi criado em 1964 o Banco Nacional da Habitação (BNH) juntamente com o Sistema Financeiro Habitacional (SFH). Para consolidar o crédito imobiliário foi realizada a implantação do Sistema Financeiro Imobiliário (SFI) que, em 1997, criou de forma estruturada, pela primeira vez no Brasil, o mercado secundário de crédito imobiliário. Esta dissertação é iniciada com o levantamento de dados e enfocando as técnicas e os modos de mensuração do problema habitacional brasileiro. Também é analisada a evolução do sistema de crédito imobiliário no Brasil, desde 1964 com o início do SFH até o começo do século XXI com a implantação do SFI. Comparando a evolução do sistema brasileiro, é mostrada a experiência referente ao crédito imobiliário nos EUA, México e Chile, por se tratarem de modelos e situações correlacionadas ao processo brasileiro. Finalmente é enfocado o processo de securitização onde são verificados aspectos legais e de riscos inerentes ao sistema em questão. É realizado o estudo para a implementação de um mercado secundário imobiliário mais líquido através de metodologia de pesquisa baseada em bibliografia, regressão univariada e regressão multivariada que verificam a manutenção do atual funding imobiliário, o direcionamento obrigatório dos depósitos em poupança do SBPE, a quantidade de crédito imobiliário tomado e o saldo de CRIs emitidos em função da atual conjuntura econômica e jurídica brasileira. Observou-se que havendo a manutenção do direcionamento obrigatório e a manutenção das taxas de crescimento do PIB e rendimento médio dever-se-á diminuir as taxas trabalhadas pelo governo para que haja necessidade de um novo funding. Como o México, a taxa que irá tornar o mercado secundário brasileiro imobiliário mais atraente será por volta dos 8,5% ao ano. / Although housing is one of citizens rights set forth in the Brazilian Constitution, part of the population cannot afford the monthly interest payments on a housing loan. The Brazilian credit market is crippled by the countrys legal environment. Due to the disparity between the production of housing units and buyers saving capacity, it is essential for buyers to be able to count on a post-production financing system that can adequate their capacity of maintaining their payments. The Banco Nacional da Habitação (BNH) (National Housing Bank) and the Sistema Financeiro Habitacional (SFH) (Housing Finance System) were created in 1964 with this end in view. To consolidate housing credit, the Sistema Financeiro Imobiliário (SFI) (Real Estate Finance System), which was created in 1997 launched the secondary market of real estate credit, for the first time in Brazil. This dissertation is structured on the basis of a data research focusing the techniques and methods employed to measure the Brazilian housing deficit. It also analyses the evolution of the real estate credit system in Brazil from 1964, when the SFH was implanted, to the start of the 21st century, with the adoption of the SFI. The experiences of the real estate credit systems of the US, Mexico and Chile are compared to the evolution of the Brazilian system, since these models and situations are correlated. To conclude, we analyze the process of securitization, touching on some of the systems legal aspects and inherent risks. We undertake a study for the implementation of a more liquid secondary real estate market, using research methodology based on bibliography review, univariate regression model and the multivariate regression model, that verify the maintenance of the current real estate funding, the compulsory sending of savings deposits to the SBPE, the amount of housing loans made and the balance of Brazilian MBSs (CRIs) emitted due to the current economic and legal status of Brazil. We observe that, if the compulsory sending is maintained, as well as the GDP growth and average yield figures, the government-set rates should decrease so that new funding becomes necessary. As is the case in Mexico, the rate that will make the Brazilian secondary real estate market more attractive will be around 8,5% per annum.

Submitted by Filipe dos Santos (fsantos@pucsp.br) on 2016-10-28T08:58:16Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Rafael Correia Fuso.pdf: 2205546 bytes, checksum: 3a137f59ba3669e2627d43fba893edf2 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-10-28T08:58:16Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Rafael Correia Fuso.pdf: 2205546 bytes, checksum: 3a137f59ba3669e2627d43fba893edf2 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-08-29 / This paper aims to study two taxation regimes for the activities of bonds or securities securitization: taxable income and presumed profit, taking into account these two regimes as liable to be adopted for this kind of securitization. We followed a path that seeks to define the securitization concept, investigated its legal nature, identified the legal relationships established between the parties involved in the process involving securitization companies, pointing out the securitization types that basically differ for each type of credit right. Leaving this generic part behind, we segregated sections of the legal regime, using the Law Science and the Legal Dogmatic to study in depth the bonds and securities securitization companies. We faced the problem of comparing the bonds and securities security companies with the factoring companies, indispensable to challenge the Brazilian Internal Revenue Service (Receita Federal do Brasil ) Regulatory Opinion number 5/2014. We identified all the differences between the business assets security companies and the factoring companies, concluding that only their means of acquisition and the credit rights are identical. Narrowing this paper’s focus, we analyzed in a generic way the taxes levied and not levied on the bonds and securities security companies. In order to use a scientific and useful criterion to discuss these taxes, not meaning that a different one could not be capable and important to investigate the tax levying, we built up the tax levying matrix rules. This tax investigation served as a premise to go on to the purposes of this paper, which is to analyze the taxation regime of the bonds and securities security companies, specifically the way of calculating taxes under the taxable income and presumed profit regimes integrating the calculation basis of the Corporate Income Tax (IRPJ), of the Net Profit Social Contribution (CSLL), of the Social Integration Program (PIS) and of the Social Security Financing Contribution (COFINS). This thesis main point relates to the tax regimes liable to be applied by the bonds and securities security companies through exploiting the problem of the federal tax authorities classifying these companies as being a species of the factoring activity, compelling them to submit to the taxable income regime, as provided by Law 9.718/1998, article 14, bringing legal uncertainty throughout the sector. We identified that during nine years the Brazilian IRS repeatedly stated and confirmed that the bonds and security securitization companies could (faculty) adopt collecting taxes under the presumed profit regime, as opposed to the federal tax authorities understanding in relation to the classification now being mentioned. Nevertheless, in April 2014 with the issuance of Ruling Opinion 5/2014 the IRS ended up changing its opinion, ignoring its past actions, interpreting Law 9.718/1998 art. 14, sub-item VI under the premise that as of the enactment of the mentioned law the business assets or bond and security securities companies should be submitted to the Taxable Income regime. We would like to emphasize that the consequence of this change was the write up of tax assessment notices against the bond and securities security companies, that started to face legal uncertainties. Notwithstanding this move to constitute tax credits, we found out that there were unconstitutionalities on the mentioned Ruling Opinion. In light of this legal instability caused by the Federal Government organ, many bond and security securities companies migrated to Credit Rights Investment Funds (FIDC). As a kind of securitization FIDC enjoys a simplified taxation way, keeping in its essence a similarity with the acquisition and assignment of credit rights submitted to rigid and specific legal rule and thus avoiding tax surprises perpetrated by the Public Power. Finally, due to growth, to tax simplifications and to the legal and operational feasibility to use receivables securitization through FIDC, legal movements and issuance of rules seeking the securitization of the delinquent tax debt recently started throughout the country. In light of the above, we investigated the legal feasibility of this securitization, pointing out the obstacles on its legal and underlying principles that in the present format without the necessary change of the legal regime, hamper the securitization of the delinquent tax debt of the political organs / O presente estudo busca tratar de dois regimes de tributação na atividade das securitizadoras de títulos ou valores mobiliários: lucro real e lucro presumido, considerando essas duas formas como passíveis de serem adotadas por essa modalidade de securitização. Percorremos um caminho que procura definir o conceito de securitização, investigamos a sua natureza jurídica, identificamos as relações jurídicas que se formam entre as partes envolvidas no processo que envolve a atividade das securitizadoras, apontamos as modalidades de securitização, que diferem basicamente em razão do tipo de direitos creditórios. Saindo dessa parte genérica, fizemos cortes no sistema jurídico, utilizando a Ciência do Direito e a Dogmática Jurídica para se aprofundar no estudo das securitizadoras de títulos e valores mobiliários. Enfrentamos o problema da equiparação da atividade das securitizadoras de títulos e valores mobiliários com as factorings, que será imprescindível para contestarmos o disposto no Parecer Normativo n.º 5/2014 editado pela Receita Federal do Brasil. Identificamos todas as diferenças entre as securitizadoras de ativos empresariais e as factorings, concluindo que apenas a forma de aquisição e os direitos creditórios são idênticos entre eles. Estreitando o foco deste estudo, analisamos de forma genérica os tributos incidentes e não incidentes sobre a atividade das securitizadoras de títulos e valores mobiliários. Como forma de utilização de critério científico e útil para tratar desses tributos, não que outra não seja hábil e importante para se investigarem as incidências tributárias, construímos as regras-matrizes de incidência tributária. Essa investigação sobre os tributos serviu de premissa para avançarmos no objetivo deste trabalho, que é analisar os regimes de tributação na securitização de títulos e valores mobiliários, especificamente a forma de apuração de tributos no lucro real e lucro presumido, que integram a base de cálculo do IRPJ, da CSLL, do PIS e da Cofins. O ponto central desta tese refere-se aos regimes tributários passíveis de aplicação pelas securitizadoras de títulos ou valores mobiliários, explorando o problema da classificação feita pelo fisco federal da atividade dessas empresas como espécie de atividade de factoring, obrigando-as a se submeterem ao lucro real disposto no artigo 14 da Lei n.º 9.718/1998, gerando insegurança jurídica em todo o setor. Em contraponto ao entendimento do fisco federal em relação à classificação ora mencionada, identificamos que ao longo de nove anos a Receita Federal do Brasil, reiteradamente, afirmou e confirmou que as securitizadoras de títulos e valores mobiliários poderiam (faculdade) adotar o regime de recolhimento dos tributos pelo lucro presumido. Contudo, em abril de 2014, com a edição do Parecer Normativo n.º 5/2014, a Fazenda acabou por mudar de opinião, ignorando os seus atos pretéritos, interpretando o disposto no inciso VI do artigo 14 da Lei n.º 9.718/1998, sob a premissa de que as securitizadoras de ativos empresariais ou de valores mobiliários deveriam se submeter ao regime do lucro real desde a edição da referida lei. Destacamos que a consequência dessa mudança foi a lavratura de autos de infração em face das securitizadoras de títulos e valores mobiliários, passando a submeter a incertezas jurídicas. Não obstante esse movimento de constituição de créditos tributários, constatamos a existência de inconstitucionalidades no referido Parecer Normativo. Em razão dessa instabilidade jurídica provocada pelo órgão da União, muitas securitizadoras de títulos e valores mobiliários migraram para os Fundos de Investimento em Direitos Creditórios (FIDC). Tratando-se de uma espécie de securitização, o FIDC possui simplificada forma de tributação, mantém na essência similaridade no processo de aquisição e cessão de direitos creditórios, submete-se a regras jurídicas rígidas e específicas, evitando, com isso, as surpresas fiscais praticadas pelo Poder Público. Por fim, em razão do crescimento, da simplificação fiscal e da viabilidade jurídica e operacional de se praticar a securitização de recebíveis por meio do FIDC, iniciaram-se recentemente no País movimentos jurídicos e edição de regras objetivando a securitização da dívida ativa. Diante disso, investigamos a viabilidade jurídica dessa securitização, apontando os obstáculos legais e principiológicos, que de forma atual, sem a mudança necessária no sistema jurídico, impedem a securitização da dívida ativa dos entes políticos

Nigeria has seen an upsurge in violent conflicts leading to insurgency and terrorism since it returned to civilian government in 1999, following sixteen years of military rule. The Niger Delta and Boko Haram insurgencies stand out among conflict groups in Nigeria as they have produced global consequences, hence provoking domestic and international counter-insurgency efforts. Military responses remain primary, but development responses are being increasingly employed. Addressing issues of poverty, exclusion, injustice and underdevelopment is considered to be more fundamental to solving contemporary conflicts. In this sense, development and security are linked, and human, rather than state security is seen to be prioritised. However, the nexus between development and security is fraught with contradictions and the notion of human security is vague. Development intervention appears to be securitized such that it becomes a tool for protecting the strategic interests of external interveners and a tool of control by domestic interveners. Therefore, this thesis explores the prospect of a human rights approach to development as a means of mediating the tension between development and security. It attempts to intellectually consider the triad among the three concepts in relation to the Niger Delta and Boko Haram conflicts. The study explores how the internal and external development interventions towards the Niger Delta and Boko Haram conflicts have been developed and the issues that have arisen concerning their effectiveness. The exploratory study uses a triangulation method that includes interviews, focus group, documentary analysis and observation. The thesis finds evidence of a paradigmatic shift towards a rights based approach to development in the internal and external interventions, but one that still yields to securitization and corruption and adversely affects sustainable development. Nonetheless, responses to the Niger Delta and Boko Haram conflicts produce ramifications that justify general as well as specifically targeted responses to individual conflicts. More so, the study shows that the relationship between Nigeria and its external development partners seem to be less vertical.

This thesis analyses the impacts of global financial crisis 2007 - 2009 on capital markets and investment banking industry. The aim of this work is to find the most important causes of the financial crisis, their relations and sequence as well as the role of investment banking industry in this crisis. First chapter gives a theoretical framework and overview of investment banking and institutional models. Second chapter then analyses the key causes of financial crisis. Third chapter analyses impacts of the crisis on selected capital markets and individual investment banks.

This thesis deals with the current financial crisis and its solutions. In the first part of this work are analyzed the main causes underlying the emergence of contemporary global crisies. Described are also the methods and financial products through which the crisies spread from the United States of America to the rest of the world, mentioned are main negative impacts of the crisis in the Czech Republic and anti-crisis measures taken by the czech government in context of crisis. In the second part of the work proposed recommendations that could reduce the likelihood of further crises in the future or measures, which could help to solve the current economic crisis. The conclusion summarizes the results of the analysis and answer the question if it is possible to avoid a financial crisis and the resulting economic recession or will come again and again?

Made available in DSpace on 2015-09-25T12:22:41Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 PDF - Carlos Augusto Lopes de Oliveira.pdf: 2407806 bytes, checksum: 63ef80ed25120c04a6834768517b0a5e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-06-07 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / This work describes the territorial formation process and the social organization of the countries that constitutes the Ferghana Valley in Central Asia and analyses the violent and non-violent conflict scenarios from 1999 to 2010. From that, it is evaluated the causes of conflict in the region of Batken province, which covers the enclaves of Vorukh and Sokh, pointing as driving variables the disputes for water, fertile land and the ethnic clashes, while it is identified regional and local threats of separatism, organized crime and terrorism as potential agents of intra-regional cooperation and with foreign powers. It is described the great powers USA, EU, Russia and China presence in the region and it is evaluated their roles in the establishment of security, under the prism of the Security Regional Complex theory, and in the conflict prevention, being by direct actions among central governments, or being by government agencies in the studied scenarios. It is concluded that the political and security scenario of Ferghana Valley changed deeply after the year of 1999 and that the securitization of non-traditional themes and the nationalism are the causes of conflict in the region. / Este trabalho descreve o processo de formação territorial e organização social dos países que constituem o Vale Fergana, na Ásia Central e analisa os cenários de conflitos violentos e não-violentos de 1999 a 2010. A partir disto, avalia-se as causas de conflitos na região da província de Batken, a qual abarca os enclaves de Vorukh e Sokh, apontando como variáveis impulsionadoras as disputas por água, terra e os confrontos étnicos, ao passo que identifica-se as ameaças regionais e locais do separatismo, o crime organizado e o terrorismo como agentes potenciais de cooperação intra-regional e com potências externas à região. É descrita a presença de grandes potências os EUA, a UE, a Rússia e a China e avalia-se o papel destas no estabelecimento da segurança, sob o prisma do Complexo Regional de Segurança, e na prevenção de conflitos, seja por ações diretas entre governos centrais, seja por agências governamentais nos cenários estudados. Conclui-se que o cenário político e de segurança do Vale Fergana transformou-se profundamente após o ano de 1999 e que a securitização de temas não tradicionais e o nacionalismo são causas de conflito na região.