Apresentamos duas abordagens para obter uma densidade de probabilidades para o preço futuro de um ativo: uma densidade preditiva, baseada em um modelo Bayesiano para série de tempo e uma densidade implícita, baseada na fórmula de precificação de opções de Black & Scholes. Considerando o modelo de Black & Scholes, derivamos as condições necessárias para obter a densidade implícita do preço do ativo na data de vencimento. Baseando-­se nas densidades de previsão, comparamos o modelo implícito com a abordagem histórica do modelo Bayesiano. A partir destas densidades, calculamos probabilidades de ordem e tomamos decisões de vender/comprar um ativo. Como exemplo, apresentamos como utilizar estas distribuições para construir uma fórmula de precificação. / We present two different approaches to obtain a probability density function for the stocks future price: a predictive distribution, based on a Bayesian time series model, and the implied distribution, based on Black & Scholes option pricing formula. Considering the Black & Scholes model, we derive the necessary conditions to obtain the implied distribution of the stock price on the exercise date. Based on predictive densities, we compare the market implied model (Black & Scholes) with a historical based approach (Bayesian time series model). After obtaining the density functions, it is simple to evaluate probabilities of one being bigger than the other and to make a decision of selling/buying a stock. Also, as an example, we present how to use these distributions to build an option pricing formula.

This master thesis is engaged in problematics of creation and compensation of geometric distortions in 1D agarose electrophoresis. This master thesis analyze the problematics of cause of these distortions and summarize the theory needed for compensation of these distortions. Based on acquired theory and created electrophoretic phantoms, the master thesis contains several suggestions for compensation of incurred distortions. These suggestions are recreated into functions, which are connected into a functional user interface for gel image analysis and geometric distortions compensation.

The purpose of this study was to determine the influence of dentofacial appearance on perceived social attributes of college-aged adult males and females as judged by their peers. Specifically, the objective was to determine if ideal smile esthetics positively influenced this age group’s perception of opposite-sex peers based on ratings of the following psychosocial characteristics: attractiveness, desire to spend time with, desire to date, and desire for a long-term relationship. Evaluators were shown digital photographs of subjects with ideal and nonideal smiles and asked to rate those 4 attributes using a visual analogue scale (VAS). The subjects’ photographs with ideal smile esthetics were consistently rated higher on average than the same subjects’ photographs with nonideal smile esthetics. The differences in ratings between ideal and nonideal smile images were significant for all 4 psychosocial judgments (P <.0001). These differences ranged in magnitude depending on the sex and race of the evaluator and subject.

BACKGROUND: Smile esthetics play a major role in the perception of a person’s attractiveness, as well as other social parameters. The study aim was to see if altering the gingival display of patients would affect perceptions of the aforementioned social parameters. METHODS: Smiling photographs were taken and then digitally altered so as to lengthen the teeth and reduce the amount of gingiva. These photographs were shown to a group of senior dental students, and a group of evaluators with no formal dental training. Groups were asked to rate each picture’s attractiveness, friendliness, trustworthiness, intelligence, and self-confidence. RESULTS: The digitally altered photographs were rated higher for all five social parameters than were their unaltered counterparts (p<0.0001). There were no statistically significant differences between the two groups of evaluators. CONCLUSIONS: Excessive gingival display positively affected how attractive a person’s smile is judged, and also how friendly, trustworthy, intelligent, and self-confident they are.

Bien que la perception et l’interprétation des expressions faciales soient critiques pour notre vie sociale, leurs mécanismes restent largement incompris. Le but de ma thèse a été d’essayer de comprendre ces processus en analysant le sourire, qui est la plus complexe des expressions.Dans une série de 9 études, nous avons examiné le rôle du contact visuel et du mimétisme facial dans la perception des sourires. Les résultats d’une première série d’études (Chapitre 2) ont révélé que les sourires accompagnés du contact visuel ont plus d’impact émotionnel et sont plus imités par les observateurs que les sourires sans échange de regards. De plus, les études que nous avons réalisées auprès des enfants et d’adultes (Chapitre 3) révèlent que le mimétisme facial est effectivement important non seulement pour un jugement correct de l’authenticité des sourires, mais aussi pour le développement des compétences émotionnelles en général. Afin d’estimer les effets du mimétisme facial, il est important de mieux comprendre les expressions faciales que l’on imite. Dans une deuxième série d’études (Chapitre 4) nous avons donc cherché à regarder les différentes fonctions de sourire en validant une typologie fonctionnelle des sourires, ceux de joie, d’affiliation et de domination. Les résultats montrent que l’usage de ces sourires dans 9 pays, ainsi que les normes gouvernant l’expressivité faciale dans 31 pays peuvent être prédits par l’homogénéité de la population de ces pays à travers les siècles. La morphologie des sourires de joie, d’affiliation et de domination est l’objet des expériences en cours. En somme, ce travail de recherche sur le sourire révèle l’importance de l’expérience corporelle et de la simulation des expressions faciales perçues chez l’autre dans l’interaction sociale. / Facial expressions are the core of our social life, but the exact mechanisms underlying their perception and interpretation are yet to be explained. The goal of this dissertation was to use the human smile as a case study in order to shed more light on the processing of facial expression. We first examined the role of eye contact and facial mimicry in the judgments of smiles. The findings revealed that smiles accompanied by eye contact have more emotional impact and elicit more corresponding smiling than smiles accompanied with averted gaze (Chapter 2). Moreover, studies involving children and adult participants (Chapter 3) show that facial mimicry is involved not only in perceptions of smile authenticity but also in the development of general emotional competence. Still, in order to define facial mimicry and explore its effects we need to specify what exactly is mimicked. A second series of studies (Chapter 4) provided initial support for the social-functional typology of reward, affiliative and dominance smiles and showed that the endorsement of these smiles – as well as general expressivity norms – can be predicted by a country’s demographic history, namely the homogeneity of its population over the centuries. The ongoing experiments investigate the morphology and the time course of the three functional smiles. Combined, our findings highlight the role of embodied simulation and bodily experience in the processing of smiles in particular and facial expression in general.

自1980年代後期Hull & White、Wiggins、Johnson & Shanno等人相繼發表關於隨機波動度模型的文獻後，就有諸多的文獻對於在選擇權定價中考慮隨機波動度作更深入的分析與模型探討，然而關於隨機波動度的研究，在早期大多採用蒙地卡羅模擬法來分析選擇權的價格行為，但蒙地卡羅模擬法受限於運算效率不高與缺乏彈性，故在評價新奇選擇權，如美式選擇權、障礙選擇權時，並無法應用。故本文以Leisen（2000）的二元樹狀模型出發，探討在不同相關係數及參數設定下之各類選擇權的定價、避險參數及隱含波動度曲面模擬計算等主題。 最後我們得到下面幾點結論： 1.在收斂速度與運算效率方面，我們可以發現二元樹狀模型在分割期數n大於20時，計算價格與收斂價格的差距就非常微小，而若我們計算不同切割期數的最大價格差異也會發現其實都不到百分之一，因此整體而言，收斂速度是令人非常滿意的。 2.當期初波動度提高時，會縮小價外選擇權與B-S價格之間的價格誤差。當到期期限增加時，隱含波動度曲線會有整體提高的趨勢。 3.若提高波動係數σ為2.5時，則不論相關係數的正負情形，價內外的程度，皆會大幅提高選擇權的隱含波動度。而在相關係數為-0.5的時候，可以發現實證中常觀察到的隱含波動度微笑曲線，這可能代表著市場上的波動係數比我們預期中的都還來的高。 4.在進行不同相關係數及不同價內外程度下二元樹狀與單元樹狀模型的美式選擇權價格比較時，我們可以發現，若以二元樹狀模型為正確價格，當相關係數為負的時候，在價外的時候，單元樹狀模型有價格低估的現象，在價內的時候，則有價格高估的現象，而在相關係數為正的時候，則反之。 5.Leisen二元樹狀與封閉解的歐式向上出局賣權價格比較，在特定的參數設定之下，Leisen二元樹狀模型在評價歐式向上出局賣權的時候，當相關係數為負的時候，在價外的時候，模型價格會高於封閉解，在價內的時候，模型價格則會低於封閉解，而在相關係數為正的時候，則反之。

Nous établissons les liens asymptotique entre deux catégories de modèles à volatilité stochastique décrivant le même marché dérivé: - un modèle générique à volatilité stochastique instantanée (SInsV) , dont le système d'EDS est un chaos de Wiener formel, spécifié sans aucune variable d'état. - une classe à volatilité implicite stochastique glissante (SImpV), qui est un autre modèle de marché, décrivant explicitement la dynamique conjointe du sous-jacent et de la surface d'options Européennes associées. Chacune de ces connexions est atteinte couche par couche, entre un groupe de coefficients SInsV et un ensemble de differentielles SImpV (statiques et dynamiques). L'approche asymptotique conduit à ce que ces différentielles croisees soient prises à l'expiration zéro, au point ATM. Nous progressons d'une configuration simple, bi-dimensionnelle à sous-jacent unique, d'abord vers une configuration multi-dimensionnelle, puis vers un cadre à structure par terme. Nous exposons les contraintes structurelles de modélisation et l'asymétrie entre le problème direct (de SInsV vers SImpV) et inverse. Nous montrons que cette expansion asymptotique en chaos (ACE) est un outil puissant pour la conception et l'analyse de modèles. En se concentrant sur des modèles à volatilité locale et leurs extensions, nous comparons ACE avec la littérature et exhibons un biais systématique dans l'heuristique de Gatheral. Dans le contexte multi-dimensionnel, nous nous concentrons sur des paniers à poids stochastiques, pour lesquels ACE fournit des résultats intuitifs soulignant la recurrence naturelle. Dans l'environnement des taux d'intérêt, nous etablissons la première couche de descripteurs du smile pour les caplets, les swaptions et les options sur obligations, à la fois dans un cadre SV-HJM et un cadre SV-LMM. En outre, nous montrons que ACE peut être automatisé pour des modèles génériques, à n'importe quel ordre, sans calcul formel. L'intérêt de cet algorithme est démontré par le calcul manuel des 2eme et 3eme couches, dans un modèle générique SInsV bi-dimensionnel. Nous présentons le potentiel applicatif d'ACE pour la calibration, l'evaluation, la couverture ou à des fins d'arbitrage, illustré par des tests numériques sur le modèle CEV-SABR.

Hyperspectral data is a powerful tool for mineral explorations and lithological discriminations. EO1-Hyperion is a space borne hyperspectral system for hyperspectral imaging which is capable of 220 spectral image channels within the range of 400 to 2500 nm wavelengths. It has advantages over airborne systems such as data cost and coverage area. Although it has many advantages, much more uncertainty exists in application period, of which this uncertainty does exist in all processing stages starting from the data preparation to the end of analysis stages. The aim of this thesis is to state the potential use of Hyperion data for lithological and mineralogical discriminations to further develop new hyperspectral image processing approach, and to improve existing preprocessing method in literature. The proposed algorithm is mainly based on atmospheric corrections and cross track illumination correction of Hyperion data. In order to achieve this, two test sites were selected. Site 1 located on the Central Anatolia, (Ekecek test site) is used for lithological discrimination and Site 2 located on West Anatolia (Biga test site) is used for mineralogical discrimination. The obtained results were compared and assessed with the field verifications, spectral measurements and existing spectral libraries. In the end of the study it is found that when proposed approach is followed hyperspectral data is proven to be a useful tool for mineralogical discrimination in mono minerallic outcrops and valuable for lithological mapping in relatively homogenous un-covered outcrops.

Objective: To collect data regarding Canadian laypersons perceptions of smile esthetics and compare these data to US data in order to evaluate cultural differences. Methods: Using Adobe® Photoshop® 7, a digital image of a posed smile of a sexually ambiguous lower face was prepared so that hard and soft tissue could be manipulated to alter Buccal Corridor (BC), Gingival display (GD), Occlusal Cant (OC), Maxillary Midline to Face Discrepancy (MMFD) and Lateral Central Gingival Discrepancy (LCGD). Adult Canadian laypersons (n=103) completed an interactive computer-based survey of 29 randomized images to compare smile preferences for these variable. The custom survey was developed to display fluid, continuously appearing modifiable smile variables using MATLAB® R2008 for presentation. These data were compared to previously published data for US laypersons. Statistical inference was determined using Wilcoxon Rank Sum tests. Results: Canadian laypersons were more sensitive in detecting deviations from ideal and had a narrower range of acceptability thresholds for BC, GD, OC, MMFD and LCGD. Ideal esthetic values were significantly different only for BC. Conclusions: It appears cultural differences do exist related to smile characteristics. Clinically significant differences in the preference of the smile characteristics were found between Canadian and US laypersons. Canadian laypersons, on average, were more discriminating to deviations from ideal and had a narrower range of acceptability.

Objective: To collect data regarding Canadian laypersons perceptions of smile esthetics and compare these data to US data in order to evaluate cultural differences. Methods: Using Adobe® Photoshop® 7, a digital image of a posed smile of a sexually ambiguous lower face was prepared so that hard and soft tissue could be manipulated to alter Buccal Corridor (BC), Gingival display (GD), Occlusal Cant (OC), Maxillary Midline to Face Discrepancy (MMFD) and Lateral Central Gingival Discrepancy (LCGD). Adult Canadian laypersons (n=103) completed an interactive computer-based survey of 29 randomized images to compare smile preferences for these variable. The custom survey was developed to display fluid, continuously appearing modifiable smile variables using MATLAB® R2008 for presentation. These data were compared to previously published data for US laypersons. Statistical inference was determined using Wilcoxon Rank Sum tests. Results: Canadian laypersons were more sensitive in detecting deviations from ideal and had a narrower range of acceptability thresholds for BC, GD, OC, MMFD and LCGD. Ideal esthetic values were significantly different only for BC. Conclusions: It appears cultural differences do exist related to smile characteristics. Clinically significant differences in the preference of the smile characteristics were found between Canadian and US laypersons. Canadian laypersons, on average, were more discriminating to deviations from ideal and had a narrower range of acceptability.