A methodology for the conceptual design phase risk assessment of an aerospace system was proposed. The method was designed to examine political, social, and economic risk over a systems lifecycle through the use of future scenarios to bound uncertainty. A decision support framework was developed to allow the user to visualize the differences in performance and economic metrics between design options as well as allowing the user to visualize the effects of mitigating certain risks. A historical proof of concept was developed to test the methodology. The results indicated that the new method will work to examine political, social, and economic risk during conceptual level design, and that this information can be used to aid in design down-selection and decision making. The use of scenario-based analysis as an alternative to traditional probabilistic analysis allowed for better traceability and bounding of uncertainty. Other findings regarding the use of a risk analysis early during concept design and future work are also discussed.

The focus of this dissertation is solution strategies for stochastic mixed-integer programs with special structures. Motivation for the methods comes from the relatively sparse number of algorithms for solving stochastic mixed-integer programs. Two stage models with finite support are assumed throughout. The first contribution introduces the nodal decision framework under private information restrictions. Each node in the framework has control of an optimization model which may include stochastic parameters, and the nodes must coordinate toward a single objective in which a single optimal or close-to-optimal solution is desired. However, because of competitive issues, confidentiality requirements, incompatible database issues, or other complicating factors, no global view of the system is possible. An iterative methodology called the nodal decomposition-coordination algorithm (NDC) is formally developed in which each entity in the cooperation forms its own nodal deterministic or stochastic program. Lagrangian relaxation and subgradient optimization techniques are used to facilitate negotiation between the nodal decisions in the system without any one entity gaining access to the private information from other nodes. A computational study on NDC using supply chain inventory coordination problem instances demonstrates that the new methodology can obtain good solution values without violating private information restrictions. The results also show that the stochastic solutions outperform the corresponding expected value solutions. The next contribution presents a new algorithm called scenario Fenchel decomposition (SFD) for solving two-stage stochastic mixed 0-1 integer programs with special structure based on scenario decomposition of the problem and Fenchel cutting planes. The algorithm combines progressive hedging to restore nonanticipativity of the first-stage solution, and generates Fenchel cutting planes for the LP relaxations of the subproblems to recover integer solutions. A computational study SFD using instances with multiple knapsack constraint structure is given. Multiple knapsack constrained problems are chosen due to the advantages they provide when generating Fenchel cutting planes. The computational results are promising, and show that SFD is able to find optimal solutions for some problem instances in a short amount of time, and that overall, SFD outperforms the brute force method of solving the DEP.

Med begreppet "Internet of Things" menas att ett objekt ur den riktiga världen blir en del av internet. Tunabyggen i Borlänge planerar att implementera ett sådant informationssystem som med hjälp av sensorer och en ständig internetuppkoppling håller uppsikt över temperatur och luftfuktighet i utvalda lokaler. Det är ett enkelt system som till synes inte har så stora effekter på den nuvarande verksamheten. De ekonomiska effekterna går ofta att räkna på i förhand men effekterna på personal, miljö och rutiner kan glömmas bort. Vi har därför med detta examensarbete undersökt vilka inledande effekter som kan tänkas uppkomma efter implementering av ett nytt informationssystem med "Internet of Things" funktionalitet i en verksamhet. Detta sker inom kategorierna ekonomi, arbetsmiljö, miljöpåverkan och systemförvaltning. För att kunna besvara detta har vi gjort en fallstudie baserad på en scenariometodik som består av fyra faser. Fas 1, där vi fick vårt Case och skapade en förståelse för scenariofältet. Fas 2, där vi identifierade nyckelfaktorer. Detta har gjorts genom en litteraturstudie samt intervju med berörd personal på Tunabyggen. Fas 3, där analysen av dessa nyckelfaktorer skedde genom nulägesanalys och framtidsanalys av nyckelfaktorer. Fas 4, där vi genererade scenarier av de analyserade nyckelfaktorerna. Det har sedan gjorts en SWOT-analys för att belysa styrkor, svagheter, möjligheter och hot. Resultatet visar tydliga tecken på att det kommer att bli många effekter för Tunabyggen efter implementering av det nya informationssystemet som yttrar sig i alla kategorier. Slutsatsen är att vid implementation av ett informationssystem som detta är effekterna många. Detta är något som vi anser bör beaktas av alla verksamheter som har tankar på att införskaffa ett nytt informationssystem. De bör inte bara utvärdera informationssystem rent ekonomiskt utan borde ta i beaktning att det finns ett antal andra faktorer som har en avgörande roll om implementation av informationssystem ska bli lyckad. / The term "Internet of Things" refers to when an object from the real world becomes a part of the internet. Tunabyggen in Borlänge plans to implement an information system that will monitor temperature and humidity in selected facilities using a constant internet connection and different sensors. It is a simple system that doesn't seem to have a major impact on the current operations. The economic effects is often possible to calculate in advance, but the impact on staff, environment and routines may be forgotten. We have with this thesis examined the initial effects that may occur after the implementation of a new information system with Internet of Things functionality in a business, within the categories of economy, working environment, environmental impact and system management. To answer this we made a case study which is based on a scenario methodology that consists of four phases. Phase 1, where we got our case and created an understanding of the scenario field. Phase 2, identifying the key factors. It has been done through a literature study and interviews with relevant staff on Tunabyggen. Phase 3, where the analysis of these key factors were made through the situation and future analysis. Phase 4, where we generate scenarios of the analyzed key factors. Finally we have done a SWOT analysis to highlight the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. The results clearly show signs that there will be many effects for Tunabyggen after the implementation of the new information system, which manifests itself in all categories. The conclusion is that even the implementation of a menial information system like this one, the impacts are many. This is something that we believe should be considered by all companies that are thinking of acquiring a new system so they do not only evaluate IT-systems in economic terms, but also other factors that play a crucial role for the implementation of an information system to be successful.

Près de soixante ans que la construction de l’Union européenne a commencé, se composant de six membres, au début, à vingt-sept aujourd’hui. Dans le même temps, tous les pays membres de l’UE ne s’impliquent pas au même rythme : espace Schengen à vingt-trois, Union monétaire à dix sept, coopérations renforcées et partenariats divers, « à la carte ». Face au contexte mondial, aux crises actuelles (surendettement public) et à venir (réchauffement climatique), aux problèmes juridiques soulevés par les ambiguïtés posées par la coexistence d’un marché unique, de droits nationaux concurrents et d’un droit européen en émergence, quel scénario politique est souhaitable et réalisable pour l’Union européenne en 2015 et en 2030 ? Les deux scénarii les plus probables pour 2015 semblent être le scénario d’une « Europe à géométrie variable », une fédération composée d’un noyau dur d’États membres, trois grands (Allemagne, France, Italie) et quatre petits réunis en un même sous-ensemble (le Benelux et l’Autriche) ainsi que le scénario d’une « union des États nations » correspondant au modèle institutionnel actuel régit par le traité de Lisbonne, mais ne semblant pas le plus approprié pour résoudre la crise actuelle. Pour résoudre la crise de surendettement public et les problèmes juridiques posés au sein de l’UE, le scénario « à géométrie variable » semble le plus adapté du fait de sa capacité à doter les institutions de pouvoirs d’action qui ne fonctionnent plus à l’échelle nationale et insuffisamment à l’échelle européenne (en matière budgétaire, monétaire et réglementaire). Le scénario souhaitable et potentiel pour 2030 est celui d’une Union fédérale pour l’ensemble des États membres qui le souhaitent. Le scénario le plus pessimiste demeure toutefois possible en cas de non réalisation des scénarios fédéraux si le scénario actuel ne résolve pas la crise politique actuelle, une « union économique européenne ». / Almost sixty years that the European Union began with six members’ State to twenty seven now. At the same time, each member gets involved in different step of the construction of EU, but not with the same commitments: Schengen agreement with twenty three members, Euro zone with seventeen, close European cooperation or partnerships between few countries. In the context of globalization, current crisis (public debts) and crisis coming (Global warming), legal problems raised by the coexistence of a common market, national law and a new European law, what will Europe’s future be in 2015 and 2030? Two scenarios could probably exist in 2015. The first one, “multy-dimensional geometry”, concern a federation of a few members’State, three major countries (Germany, France and Italy) and a group of four little countries (Benelux and Austria). The second one is the current one, the European Union handled by the Lisbonn Treaty, but it doesn’t seem to be the most appropriate for solve the crisis. To face the public debt crisis and the legal problems, the scenario “multy-dimensional geometry” is able to increase the capacity to act on behalf of the federation most than the nations and the European institutions are able to do today (legal, monetary and budgetary policies). In 2030, it would be desirable if scenario “federation for most of the members’State of EU” will succeed. But the scenario of a “free exchange zone in Europe” is not excluded in the case of solutions are not found to solve the crisis.

Energiöverenskommelsen 2016 innefattade ett flertal mål och implikationer för utformningenav det svenska el- och energisystemet. Sveriges energisystem ska vara ekologiskt hållbart,konkurrenskraftigt och försörjningstryggt. Utöver detta så omfattas överenskommelsen av enmålsättning om 100% förnyelsebar elproduktion år 2040, som analyserats i rapporten. Syftetmed rapporten är att belysa problematiken som kan uppkomma vid ett obalanserat elsystemmed avseende på försörjningstrygghet, ekologisk hållbarhet och konkurrenskraft. Här ämnarrapporten även att öka medvetenheten bland aktörer inom det svenska energisystemet ochsynliggöra problematik som kan uppkomma efter år 2040. Den huvudsakliga vetenskapligametoden är en formativ undersökning där intervjuer med kraftbolag genomförts för att få endjupare förståelse för det framtida kraftsystemet. Sedan har även en explorativ undersökninggenomförts genom litteraturstudier. Dessa två undersökningar har tillsammans möjliggjortförklaringar av orsakssamband. Det främsta källmaterialet i rapporten är vetenskapliga artiklarkopplade till el- och energiområdet, där KTH:s Databas Primo samt Google scholar använtssom främsta medium för sökningar. Myndigheter och organisationer som KungligaIngenjörsvetenskapsakademien (IVA) samt North European Energy Perspectives Project(NEPP) har bidragit med information. Resultaten visar att det finns problematik kopplade tilleffektbrist, svängmassa och planerbarhet i och med en nedläggning av kärnkraften, där ensamtida beskattning av avfallsbaserad kraftvärme ytterligare försämrar tillgången på effekt.Resultaten visar även att introducering av vindkraft till systemet ökar det svenskaimportberoendet av el från Tyskland med högre andel fossila inslag, men samtidigt bidrar tillen ökad export där svensk el kan trycka bort smutsig el i andra länder. Vidare beskrivslångsiktighet och ett ökat samarbete mellan systemets aktörer som av stor vikt för utvecklingenav det framtida elsystemet samt ett ökat fokus på implementering av systemtjänster somförsvinner från systemet framöver. Andelen vindkraft beräknas öka till år 2030 samtidigt somkärnkraft och värmekraft, som båda är planerbara kraftslag, beräknas minska. Att målet omförnyelsebar elproduktion införlivas 2040 är inte troligt, då kärnkraftsreaktorerna beräknasdrivas hela deras ekonomiska livslängd vilket löper ut 2045. / The Energy Agreement from 2016 is comprised of several goals for the forming of the Swedishpower system. The Swedish power system should be ecologically sustainable, competitive andbe able to supply power without interruption. Furthermore, this agreement also involves a goalof a 100% renewable power generation in 2040, which has been analyzed in this report. Theaim with his report is to highlight problems that might occur in the case of an unbalanced powersystem with respect to ecological sustainability, competitiveness and safe supply. The reportalso aims to raise awareness amongst the actors in the Swedish energy system and highlightproblems in the future. The main scientific method used in this report is a formativeexamination where interviews with the power company representatives gave a deeperunderstanding of the power system as of now, but also in the future. Another scientific methodused has been an explorative examination throughout the literature studies, where these twomethods combined has enabled explanations and causations. The foremost source ofinformation are scientific studies connected to the power system, where KTH’s database Primoand Google Scholar has been used as a primary medium for searches. Authorities and NGOs,such as the Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences (IVA) and North EuropeanEnergy Perspectives Project (NEPP), has also been used as a primary source of information.The results show problems connected to lack of effect, inertia as well as a decrease of plannablepower through the closure of nuclear power plants and thermal power plants due to newtaxation. The result also shows that an introduction of wind power to the Swedish power systemalso decrease the national independence and rely more on import of power, mainly fromGermany which have a higher share of fossil elements. In other situations, it also leads to ahigher export where Swedish power removes fossil elements in other countries. Furthermore,a long-term strategy and increased cooperation between the systems actors is crucial for thedevelopment of the future energy system with focus on implementing system services whichare decreasing with the decrease of plannable power. The share of wind power is expected torise to 2030, at the same time the plannable power, nuclear and thermal power, is expected todrop. The national goal of a renewable power generation is reached by the year 2040 is notlikely, where the current nuclear power reactors will remain their entire economic life spanwhich spans to 2045, with chance of life span extension.

En sektor som bidrar till de globala klimatförändringarna är turismen.Tidigare forskning pekar på att hotellbranschen skapar negativa effekteroch är ansvarig för 21% av turismens hela ekologiska fotavtryck. Därav har denna studie fokuserat på hotellens klimat- och miljöpåverkan. Studien syftar på att skapa helhetsperspektiv med hjälp av scenarion om vad en förändring av koldioxidutsläpp kan leda till för hotellen och för samhället. Forskningsfrågan som har besvarats är ”Hur påverkas koldioxidutsläppen om förbrukningen av fjärrvärme, vatten, handdukar och sängkläder förändras på ett hotell?”Studien genomfördes på ett utvalt hotell i Jönköping, där den primära data kommer ifrån hotellet och Nordic Choice Hotels. Vidare har scenarion använts som en metod för att visualisera och sammanställa resultatet. Två scenarion har tagits fram med hjälp av verktyget PMI GoGreen. Scenario 1, som heter ”Omställningen” utgår ifrån att hotellet väljer att implementera åtgärder för att minska sin värmeförbrukning med 30%, minska vattenförbrukningen med 10% och att minska förbrukningen av handdukaroch sängkläder med 10%. I scenario 2, ”Business as usual” utgår från att hotellet inte implementerar några åtgärder för att minska sin förbrukning,utan fortsätter verksamheten som förut. Resultat visade att i scenario 1 ”Omställningen” var koldioxid utsläppenmindre, jämfört med scenario 2 ”Business as usual”. Utsläpp från fjärrvärme var även märkbart högre än vattenförbrukningen, handdukar och sängkläder. Vidare diskuteras de miljömässiga, sociala och ekonomiska  fördelarna respektive nackdelarna i dessa två scenarios. Utifrån scenario 1kan positiva slutsatser dras då koldioxidutsläppen är mindre och omställningen i scenariot kan skapa många fördelar för både hotellet och samhället. Utifrån scenario 2 kan slutsatsen dras att fortsätta verksamheten som vanligt kan leda till ett högre koldioxidutsläpp, vilket i sin tur kommer att påverka hotellet och samhället negativt. / One sector that contributes to global climate change is tourism. Previous research points out that the hotel industry creates unprecedented negative impacts and is responsible for 21% of tourism's entire ecological footprint. Hence, this study has focused on the hotels' climate and environmental impact. The study aims to create an overall perspective with the help of scenarios about what a change in carbon dioxide emissions can lead to forthe hotel and for society. The research question that has been answered is"How are carbon dioxide emissions affected if the consumption of district heating, water, towels and bed linen changes in a hotel?". The study was conducted at a selected hotel in Jönköping, where the primary data comes from the hotel and Nordic Choice Hotels. Furthermore, scenario has been used as a method to visualize and compilethe result. Two scenarios have been developed using the PMI GoGreentool. Scenario 1, called "The transformation", assumes that the hotel choosesto implement measures to reduce its heat consumption by 30%, reducewater consumption by 10% and to reduce the consumption of towels andbed linen by 10%. In scenario 2, "Business as usual", it is assumed that the hotel does not implement any measures to reduce its consumption but continues operations as before. Results showed that in scenario 1 "The transition" carbon dioxide emissions were lower, compared to scenario 2 "Business as usual". Emissions from district heating were also significantly higher than the consumption of water, towels, and bed linen. Furthermore, the environmental, social andeconomic advantages and disadvantages of these two scenarios are discussed. Based on scenario 1, positive conclusions can be drawn as the carbon dioxide emissions are lower and the change in the scenario can create many benefits for both the hotel and society. Based on scenario 2, the conclusion can be drawn that continuing operations as usual can lead tohigher carbon dioxide emissions, which in turn will negatively affect the hotel and society. / <p>2023-06-02</p>

As a technical writer I have come to see that the collaborative media landscape has started to change the way many B2C companies work with support information. It is companies producing software based consumer products that has taken the lead in this new way of approaching the customers. More and more companies in other product segments are starting to go in the same direction. But what happens to the technical writer when more and more customers are creating their own support information? The death of the technical writer has been proclaimed for several years. It is no wonder that one asks: What is the future role of the technical writer facing the challenges with collaborative media? That is also the research question for this thesis.To investigate this I have experimented with a method called scenario planning and scenario writing. In order to get a well-grounded base of trends to create the scenarios from I’ve concluded a rigorous empirical base. The following methods where used: In-depth interviews with practitioners in the technical writer field Content analysis of a support forum Email interviews with frequent forum users.It was clear that when implementing new media structures it also involves new challenges. These challenges could potentially also lead to new roles for the technical writer. The challenges I consider to be most important were; trust, transparency, motivation and information overload. To facilitate those needs and challenges roles like community manager, content curator and content strategist are needed.With those roles in mind I created four scenarios. Each with a different take on collaborative media (and one that actually ignored this emerge). The names of the scenarios are: The outcasts The insider matter Sharing is caring The third player

Head-up display (HUD) är en beprövad teknik inom flyg och bil, vilken gör det möjligt för piloter och förare att få tillgång till information utan att uppmärksamheten avleds från omvärlden. Liknande fördelar kan uppnås genom installation av HUD i tåg. Syftet med denna studie är att utveckla ett användargränssnitt för HUD baserat på European Rail Traffic Management System (ERTMS). HUD kommer att vara en extra säkerhetsfunktion för tågen för att förhindra förare från att skifta fokus mellan instrumentpanelen och omgivningen, vilket leder till minskad förareutmattning och bättre observation av spåren framåt. Scenario Based Design-metoden har använts för att genomföra projektarbetet och i rapporten diskuteras metodens  fördelar och begränsningar. Användningen av scenarier har gjort det möjligt för designteamet att på djupet förstå de situationer som förarna står inför samt  har hjälpt till att under workshops få en bättre förståelse för drivrutinerna. Dessutom har rekommendationer för hårdvara, installation och framtida arbete beskrivits för fortsatt genomförande av projektet. / Head-up display (HUD) has a proven track record in the aviation and automobile sectors, allowing pilots and drivers to access information without diverting attention from the outside world. Similar benefits may be realized by the installation of HUD in locomotive cabs. The objective of this thesis work is to develop the user interface for HUD based on the ERTMS system. The HUD will be an added safety feature to the trains to prevent drivers from refocusing between the instrument panel and the outside view thus leading to reduced driver fatigue and better observation of the tracks ahead. Scenario Based Design method has been used to implement the project work with discussions regarding its advantages and limitations. The use of scenarios has allowed the design team to understand the scenarios that the drivers face in depth and has aided during the workshops to understand the drivers’ routine better. Additionally, recommendations for the hardware, installation and future work have been provided to support further implementation of the project.

Decarbonizing the European industry sector is a prerequisite for reaching the ‘well below’ 2 °C climate target adopted in the Paris agreement. The objective of this master thesis is to model a European energy efficiency scenario (2020 – 2050), using the Sector Model of the Industry (SmInd). This reference scenario builds the basis for comparison with extreme scenarios. Additionally, an extreme electrification scenario is assessed qualitatively for its prospective implementation into the model. SmInd Europe is obtained by adapting and expanding a German version of SmInd. The model is based on sub sector specific input data such as energy consumption and load profiles, as well as energy carrier specific data considering emission factors and energy carrier prices. The input data requires different assumptions, to account for 13 energy carriers, 11 applications, 22 processes, 13 sub sectors and 15 countries. Computing the country specific industry structure and the reference scenario reveals an overall reduction in energy consumption, as well as a reduction in CO2 emissions of e.g. 44 %, 22 % and 20 % in Germany, France and Sweden, respectively. Benchmarking the reference scenario with other country specific studies shows that the assumptions taken are a reasonable first approach for modelling an ambitious energy efficiency scenario in the European industry sector. The assessment of the heterogeneous industry structure reveals that the implementation of extreme scenarios needs a country specific approach, to account for a varying degree of decarbonization progress in the different sub sectors and countries.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-12-12T20:22:52Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Luciana Pereira de Araujo.pdf: 14609515 bytes, checksum: 389ecae83749400f1c4b8fe3e60a820a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-08-27 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / The multidisciplinary treatment in health area is the supporting to patients who need care of different health professionals. During this treatment the professionals should communicate and collaborate to solve the patient diseases. In a local study in the public health at Blumenau city, we have observed that there is a lack of communication and collaboration among these professionals. This lack of communication affects the multidisciplinary treatment. This problem occurs due to different geographic position in doctors offices and due to different availability of each professional. In this context, this work has realized an action research involving the Elderly Care Center of Blumenau city to help the development of a system that allows multidisciplinary treatment. Blumenau has a health system called PRONTO. However, this system does not allow the collaboration among health professionals during the healthcare. Thus, this work includes the multidisciplinary treatment in the actual system and allows the collaboration among the health professionals. We used the participatory design method to design the multidisciplinary treatment and its interface, in order to involve the professionals in the development. The Scenario Based Evaluation was used to evaluate the developed system. This method allows to identify the important scenarios to perform the tasks. The design, development and evaluation of multidisciplinary treatment occurred in four steps of action research. We conclude that the proposed system allows the multidisciplinary treatment in collaborative way. The system also decreased the lack of communication and collaboration problems. / O tratamento multidisciplinar na área da saúde é o tratamento prestado a pacientes que dependem da atenção de profissionais de diferentes áreas. Durante este tratamento, os profissionais devem se comunicar e colaborar para solucionar o problema do paciente. Em estudos realizados na rede pública da cidade de Blumenau, observou-se que existe falta de comunicação e colaboração entre estes profissionais prejudicando o atendimento multidisciplinar. O problema ocorre principalmente devido aos diferentes locais de trabalho e diferentes horários de atendimento destes profissionais de saúde. Nesse contexto, este trabalho realizou uma pesquisa-ação envolvendo o Centro de Saúde do Idoso da cidade de Blumenau, para auxiliar na construção de um sistema que permita o tratamento multidisciplinar. Blumenau possui um sistema de saúde denominado PRONTO, porém ele não permite a colaboração entre os profissionais de saúde durante o tratamento de um paciente. Sendo assim, o trabalho pretende incluir o atendimento multidisciplinar no sistema atual permitindo a colaboração entre esses profissionais. O método de design participativo foi utilizado para a construção do módulo multidisciplinar e de sua interface, com intuito de envolver os profissionais em sua construção e identificar as tarefas a serem realizadas. O método Scenario Based Evaluation foi utilizado para avaliar o sistema. Este método permite a identificação de cenários importantes para a realização das tarefas dos profissionais. A construção e avaliação do atendimento multidisciplinar desenvolvido ocorreu dentro de quatro ciclos de pesquisa-ação. Após o término da pesquisa-ação, podese concluir que as funcionalidades projetadas permitem o atendimento multidisciplinar de forma colaborativa com uma ferramenta computacional, reduzindo os problemas referentes à falta de comunicação e de colaboração entre os profissionais de saúde.