Spelling suggestions: "subject:"semi–arid"" "subject:"kemi–arid""
101 |
Spatiotemporal studies of evapotranspiration in Inner Mongolian grasslandsSchaffrath, David 09 June 2015 (has links)
Inner Mongolian grasslands are part of the vast Eurasian steppe belt and were used for nomadic pastoralism for thousands of years. As a result of political and economic changes in China in the last century, this mobile grazing management has been replaced by a sedentary and intensified livestock production. Stocking rates have increased substantially, overshooting the carrying capacity of the grasslands. These land use changes have induced severe grassland degradation. The impact and causes of grassland degradation have been investigated by the Sino-German joint research group MAGIM (Matter fluxes in grasslands of Inner Mongolia as influenced by stocking rate) in the Xilin River catchment of Inner Mongolia since 2004. This work is part of subproject P6, which amongst others pursues the goal of quantifying water balance exchange by micrometeorology and remote sensing.
The dominating process of water balance losses in Inner Mongolian grasslands is evapotranspiration (ET), whereby water vapour is released into the lower atmosphere. ET is highly variable in both time and space in this semi-arid environment, as it is coupled with the typically fluctuating amount of precipitation (P). However, despite ET being the key output process of the hydrological cycle of Inner Mongolian grasslands and despite its important role as an indicator for ecosystem functioning, little is known about its spatiotemporal distribution and variability in this remote area. Recent studies on ET have demonstrated variations due to phenology, soil moisture and land use, but these studies have been limited to short periods and have been conducted on a few field sites in close proximity with debatable representativeness for the 2600 km² of grasslands in the Xilin River catchment. The development of a number of remote sensing methods in the last decades has introduced various approaches to determining spatial ET from space, but the application of remotely sensed ET in regional long-term studies is still problematic. Nevertheless, a variety of surface parameters are provided by the sensor MODIS (moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer) at a resolution of approx. 1km.
The aim of this work was (1) to close the gap between the limitations of available local ET measurements and the need for long-term studies on spatial ET in Inner Mongolian grasslands and (2) to analyse the spatiotemporal variability of ET and its implications on livestock management in this area. Therefore, micrometeorological data, remote sensing products and hydrological modelling with BROOK90 were integrated to model spatial ET for the grasslands of the Xilin River catchment over 10 years. The hydrological model BROOK90 calculates ET based on a modified Penman-Monteith approach including the separation of energy into transpiration and soil evaporation. The spatial application of the model was based on a land use classification restricted to the land use unit typical steppe. BROOK90 was parameterised from eddy covariance measurements, soil characteristics and MODIS leaf area index (LAI). Location and canopy parameters were provided individually, as well as the essential daily model input, including P and air temperatures for each pixel. Minimum and maximum air temperatures were calculated based on a relationship between measured air temperatures and MODIS surface temperatures (R²=0.92 and R²=0.87, n=81). Spatial P was estimated from a relationship found between the measured cumulative P of six rain gauges within the grasslands and the increase of MODIS LAI around these measurements (R²=0.80, n=270).
Modelled ET is plausible and fits in the range of published results. ET was demonstrated to be highly variable in both time and space: the high spatiotemporal variability of eight-day ET is reflected by the coefficients of variation, which varied between 25% and 40% for the whole study area and were up to 75% for individual pixels. Soil evaporation reacts considerably more sensitively to precipitation pulses than transpiration. Modelled annual ET sums approached or exceeded precipitation sums in general; however, P exceeded ET in 2003, when exceptionally high precipitation occurred. The strong dynamics and the high spatiotemporal variability of ET clearly demonstrate that the current static livestock management is not adapted to the conditions of Inner Mongolian grasslands. New concepts for a sustainable livestock management could be developed in consideration of the intrinsic long-term patterns of spatial ET distribution and spatiotemporal variability identified in this work. Moreover, as this method for modelling spatial ET is not restricted to the grasslands of the Xilin River catchment, livestock management in other semi-arid grasslands could benefit from it as well. / Die Grasländer der Inneren Mongolei sind Teil des riesigen eurasischen Steppengürtels und wurden seit Tausenden von Jahren für die nomadische Weidewirtschaft genutzt. Als Folge der politischen und wirtschaftlichen Veränderungen in China im letzten Jahrhundert ist diese mobile Weidewirtschaft durch eine ortsgebundene und intensivierte Tierhaltung ersetzt worden. Besatzdichten wurden erheblich erhöht und die Tragfähigkeit der Grasländer wurde deutlich überschritten. Diese Landnutzungsänderungen haben schwerwiegende Degradationserscheinungen der Grasländer induziert. Die Ursachen und Auswirkungen der Degradation sind von der Deutsch-Chinesischen-Forschungsgruppe MAGIM (Matter fluxes in grasslands of Inner Mongolia as influenced by stocking rate) im Einzugsgebiet des Xilin-Flusses in der Inneren Mongolei seit 2004 untersucht worden. Diese Arbeit wurde im Rahmen des Teilprojektes P6 erstellt, welches unter anderem das Ziel verfolgt, Wasserhaushaltsprozesse mit Mikrometeorologie und Fernerkundung zu quantifizieren.
Der dominierende Prozess der Wasserbilanz-Verluste in den Grasländern der Inneren Mongolei ist die Verdunstung (ET), wobei Wasserdampf in die untere Atmosphäre freigesetzt wird. ET ist in diesem semi-ariden Ökosystem in Zeit und Raum sehr variabel, da an die in der Regel schwankenden Niederschläge (P) gekoppelt. Trotz der Schlüsselrolle, die ET im Wasserkreislauf der Inneren Mongolei einnimmt, und der wichtigen Rolle als Indikator für die Funktionsweise des Ökosystems, ist wenig über die raum-zeitliche Verteilung und Variabilität von ET in dieser abgelegenen Region bekannt. Neuere Studien haben ET-Schwankungen aufgrund von Phänologie, Bodenfeuchte und Bodennutzung dargestellt, aber diese Studien sind auf kurze Zeiträume beschränkt und wurden auf nur wenigen Standorten, die sich in unmittelbarer Nähe befinden, durchgeführt. Dies stellt ihre Repräsentativität für die 2600 km² an Grasland im Xilin-Einzugsgebiet in Frage. Die Entwicklung von Fernerkundungsmethoden in den letzten Jahrzehnten hat verschiedene Ansätze zur Bestimmung der räumlichen ET hervorgebracht, jedoch ist die Anwendung von ET aus Fernerkundungsdaten in regionalen Langzeitstudien immer noch problematisch. Dennoch werden eine Vielzahl von Oberflächenparametern durch den Sensor MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) bei einer Auflösung von ca. 1km zur Verfügung gestellt.
Das Ziel dieser Arbeit war (1) die Lücke zwischen den verfügbaren lokalen ET-Messungen und dem Bedarf an langfristigen Untersuchungen zu räumlicher ET im Grasland der Inneren Mongolei zu schließen und (2) die räumlich-zeitliche Variabilität von ET vor dem Hintergrund des Beweidungsmanagements zu analysieren. Daher wurden mikrometeorologische Daten, Fernerkundungsprodukte und hydrologische Modellierungen mit BROOK90 integriert, um die räumliche ET für die Grasländer des Xilin-Einzugsgebietes über 10 Jahre zu modellieren. Das hydrologische Modell BROOK90 berechnet ET auf Basis eines modifizierten Penman-Monteith-Ansatzes einschließlich der Aufteilung in Transpiration und Bodenverdunstung. Die räumliche Anwendung des Standortmodells basiert auf einer Landnutzungsklassifikation und wurde für die Landnutzungsklasse typical steppe durchgeführt. Eddy-Kovarianz-Messungen, Bodeneigenschaften und MODIS-Blattflächenindex (LAI) wurden zur Parametrisierung von BROOK90 verwendet. Sowohl Lage- und Pflanzenparameter, als auch die notwendigen Modelleingangsdaten (Tageswerte von P und Lufttemperaturen), wurden für jeden Pixel individuell zur Verfügung gestellt. Minimum- und Maximum-Lufttemperaturen wurden mittels einer Beziehung zwischen gemessenen Lufttemperaturen und MODIS-Oberflächentemperaturen berechnet (R²=0.92 und R²=0.87, n=81). Räumliche P wurden aus einem Zusammenhang zwischen gemessenen kumulierten P von sechs Niederschlagsmessern im Untersuchungsgebiet und der Erhöhung des MODIS-LAI im Bereich dieser Messungen abgeleitet (R²=0.80, n=270).
Die modellierte räumliche ET ist plausibel und liegt im Wertebereich der publizierten Ergebnisse. Es wurde gezeigt, das ET sehr variabel in Raum und Zeit ist: die raum-zeitlichen Schwankungen der achttägigen ET wurden durch den Variationskoeffizienten dargestellt, welcher zwischen 25% und 40% für das gesamte Untersuchungsgebiet variiert und für einzelne Pixel bis auf 75% ansteigt. Die Bodenverdunstung reagiert wesentlich empfindlicher auf Niederschlagsereignisse als die Transpiration. Modellierte Jahres-ET-Summen erreichen oder überschritten die Niederschlagssummen in der Regel, jedoch übertraf P die ET im Jahre 2003, als außergewöhnlich hohe Niederschläge aufgetreten sind. Die starke Dynamik und die hohe raum-zeitliche Variabilität der ET zeigen deutlich, dass die aktuelle statische Tierhaltung nicht an die Bedingungen in den Innermongolischen Grasländern angepasst ist. Neue Konzepte für eine nachhaltige Viehwirtschaft könnten unter Berücksichtigung der inhärenten langfristigen Muster der räumlichen Verteilung von ET und ihrer raum-zeitlichen Variabilität, die in dieser Arbeit identifiziert wurden, entwickelt werden. Außerdem ist die Anwendung der entwickelten Methode für die Modellierung räumlicher ET nicht auf die Grasländer des Xilin-Einzugsgebietes beschränkt; die Weidewirtschaft in anderen semi-ariden Grasländern könnte ebenfalls davon profitieren.
|
102 |
Étude des relations surface-souterrain du système aquifère d'El Haouareb (Tunisie centrale) sous contraintes climatiques et anthropiques. / Impacts of climatic fluctuations and human activities on surface-groundwater relationship of the El Haouareb aquifer (central Tunisia).Alazard, Marina 12 February 2013 (has links)
Dans les environnements semi-arides la ressource en eau est soumise aux irrégularités du climat. Les eaux de surface sont très irrégulièrement réparties dans le temps et dans l'espace. Le cumul annuel des précipitations est généralement faible et les évènements sont rares et intenses, causant des crues violentes et une forte érosion. Les eaux souterraines constituent souvent la principale ressource pérenne utilisable et elles sont largement mises à contribution. Pour pallier aux conséquences néfastes de ces régimes hydrologiques, des projets de grands barrages ont été menés dans ces zones pour favoriser le stockage d'eau. Paradoxalement, la mise en place de ces ouvrages crée un déficit en eau dans certaines zones en induisant des pertes par évaporation et la diminution de la recharge des nappes. Des situations complexes nouvelles sont ainsi créées, nécessitant des modes de gestions adaptés. En Tunisie centrale, le bassin versant du Merguellil fournit un exemple de processus hydrologique profondément modifié par la construction d'un grand barrage. Le bassin revêt une importance stratégique pour la région. Il alimente la plaine de Kairouan qui constitue le plus fort potentiel de développement agricole du pays et dont la nappe alluviale est surexploitée. Les écoulements intermittents de l'oued rechargeaient autrefois la nappe phréatique de la plaine. Le barrage d'El Haouareb construit en 1989 bloquant désormais les écoulements de surface, la recharge se produit plus en amont via le socle calcaire fissuré de l'ouvrage. Cette modification du fonctionnement hydrologique entraine une perte significative d'eau par évaporation et concentre la recharge à l'extrême amont de la plaine, au pied du barrage. Le but de cette thèse est d'identifier les mécanismes de recharge qui s'opèrent au niveau du seuil d'El Haouareb. L'infiltration depuis le lac de barrage a été quantifiée d'après le bilan hydrologique de la retenue et cet état de 56 % de perte par infiltration, 24 % de perte par évaporation, 14 % utilisés pour l'irrigation et 6 % relâchés depuis 1989. Le bilan a été fait à des pas de temps plus fin pour permettre de modéliser les entrées dans le système aquifère.L'identification des flux transitant à travers le seuil calcaire a été menée en croisant des approches hydrodynamiques (analyse du signal) et géochimiques (profils et chronique de CE et températures, chimie des ions majeurs, isotopes stables de la molécule de l'eau). La confrontation des différentes méthodes a permis de consolider les résultats et de pallier aux imperfections de certaines données de terrain dans un contexte hydrologique et hydrogéologique complexe. Un modèle simplifié de l'aquifère fracturé et un schéma de fonctionnement du seuil ont ainsi pu être établis, permettant d'anticiper l'évolution des mécanismes de recharge dans le bassin du Merguellil sous des contraintes climatiques futures. / In semi-arid environment, surface waters are unevenly distributed in time and space and particularly vulnerable. The total annual rainfall is generally low and the rain events are rare and intense, causing severe flooding and erosion. Therefore, the groundwater resource is widely exploited, often inducing overexploitation problems.To overcome the negative consequences of these hydrological regimes, large dam have been built to increase the water storage. These structures can paradoxically create a water deficiency in some areas by inducing evaporation losses and reducing aquifer recharge. In central Tunisia, the Merguellil catchment provides an example of hydrological processes profoundly changed by the construction of a large dam. The basin is of strategic importance for the region. It feeds the great agricultural plain of Kairouan which suffers f overexploitation for decades. Before the building of the El Haouareb dam, the Merguellil intermittent flows were the main source of recharge to the Kairouan plain aquifer. Dam El Haouareb built in 1989 now blocking surface runoff, recharge occurs further upstream through the cracked limestone base of the structure. This modification of the hydrological causes a significant loss of water by evaporation and concentrate recharge of the plain at the foot of the dam.The purpose of this thesis work is to identify the recharge mechanisms occurring at the threshold of El Haouareb. Infiltration from the lake was quantified calculating the water budget of the reservoir. The total water budget between 1989 and 2006 was made up by: infiltration 56%, evaporation 24%, abstraction 14% and dam releases 6%. Calculations had been conducted for smaller time scale to allow the quantification of the entries in the aquifer system.The identification of flows passing through the calcareous threshold was conducted by crossing hydrodynamic approaches (signal analysis) and geochemical (profiles and records of electrical conductivity and temperature, major ions, stable isotopes of the water molecule). The comparison of different methods helped to consolidate the results and to overcome the imperfections of some field data in a hydrological and hydrogeological complex context.A basic model and a simplified diagram of the El Haouareb aquifer have been established and allow anticipating the evolution of recharge in the Merguellil catchment under future climatic pressure.
|
103 |
Variabilidade espacial do carbono e outros atributos do solo em uma área destinada ao reflorestamento no Rio Grande do Norte / Spatial variability of soil carbon and other attributes in an area destined to reforestation in Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil.Reina Sánchez, Gilma Amparo 23 August 2010 (has links)
O solo é um importante sumidouro de carbono (C) atmosférico, uma vez que concentrações de CO2 da atmosfera podem ser atenuadas através de mecanismos de sequestro de C no solo. Nesse contexto, solos sob clima semi-árido estão sendo atualmente avaliados como potenciais sequestradores de C, sobretudo no processo de recuperação de áreas degradadas. No entanto, ainda há carência de informações referentes aos mecanismos envolvidos no sequestro de C. Adicionalmente, há incertezas nas estimativas dos estoques de C pela falta de conhecimento sobre sua variabilidade espacial devido à complexidade dos processos físicos, químicos e biológicos que influenciam o ciclo do referido elemento. As variações espaciais do C no solo estão relacionadas a fatores naturais e induzidos pelo homem e essas variações apresentam-se em diferentes escalas espaciais. Por tais motivos a presente pesquisa teve como objetivo avaliar a variabilidade espacial do C e de outros atributos físicos, químicos e biológicos do solo numa área de 100 ha destinada ao reflorestamento na região semi-árida do Rio Grande do Norte. Para tanto, foi estabelecida uma grade regular de 644 pontos amostrais espaçados de 40 m numa área localizada no município de Angicos (RN), pertencente à Universidade Federal Rural do SemiÁrido. Foram coletadas 1932 amostras de solo nas profundidades 0-0,1; 0,1-0,2; e 0,2-0,3 m para determinações de C, areia, silte, argila, pH, Na, P, Ca, Mg e K. Para determinar o C da biomassa microbiana (Cmic) foram utilizadas 156 amostras referentes à camada 0-0,1m. Com relação à densidade do solo (Ds) foram coletadas 246 amostras nas três profundidades mencionadas anteriormente. Adicionalmente, foram efetuados os seguintes cálculos: estoques de C, saturação por bases (V %), CTC (CTC(T)), saturação por Al (m) e soma de bases (SB). Os resultados foram submetidos à análise estatística descritiva clássica, seguida de análise geoestatística. O solo da área apresenta predominância de textura muito arenosa, baixa CTC e teores de C e Cmic; altos valores de Ds, acidez elevada e médios teores P e bases disponíveis. Estes resultados são comuns em solos de região semi-árida sob Caatinga em decorrência das condições climáticas desfavoráveis. Na análise descritiva a maioria dos atributos avaliados apresentou normalidade na sua distribuição. Os coeficientes de variação (CV) foram classificados como médios para a maioria dos atributos, a dependência espacial foi moderada com média geral dos alcances de 135 m. A maioria dos atributos ajustou-se ao modelo esférico. Na avaliação da eficiência dos modelos ajustados, tanto a validação interna como a externa apresentaram comportamentos semelhantes. A modelagem aplicada permitiu estimar o alcance e a magnitude das dependências espaciais. Por meio da krigagem foi efetuada a interpolação dos dados e gerados os mapas de variabilidade espacial para os atributos físicos, químicos e biológicos estudados. Os resultados obtidos nesta pesquisa ressaltam a importância do entendimento da variabilidade espacial do C e outras propriedades do solo, informações que servem como ponto de referência inicial (linha de base) e tem implicações importantes para futuras avaliações do impacto no sequestro de C e do potencial produtivo de Jatrofa na região semi-árida do Nordeste Brasileiro. / Soil is an important carbon (C) sink, since atmospheric CO2 concentrations can be attenuated by soil C sequestration. In this context, soils under semi-arid conditions are being evaluated as potential soil C sinks, mainly considering the process of rehabilitation of degraded areas. However, little information is available on the mechanisms associated with soil C sequestration. Moreover, there are uncertainties on soil C stocks estimates because of the lack of knowledge about its spatial variability due to the complexity of physical, chemical and biological processes that directly influence soil C cycle. Soil C spatial variability is associated with a series of natural and human-induced factors and those variations can be expressed in different spatial scales. Therefore, the main objective of the present study was to evaluate the spatial variability of C and soil physical, chemical and biological attributes in a 100 ha area destined to reforestation in the semi-arid region of Rio Grande do Norte (RN), Brazil. In order to do that, a regular grid (40 x 40 m) of 644 sampling points was defined in an area located in the city of Angicos (RN) that belongs to the Universidade Federal Rural do Semi-Árido. Samples from the 0-0,1; 0,1-0,2; e 0,2- 0,3 m soil layers were collected in each sampling point totalizing 1932 soil cores that were used for the following analyses: C, sand, silt, clay, pH, Na, P, Ca, Mg and K. For microbial biomass C, 156 samples were used from the 0-0,1 m soil depth. Samples for soil bulk density (total of 246 samples) were collected in the three mentioned soil layers. Additionally, the following calculations were performed: soil C stocks, base saturations, cation exchange capacity and aluminum saturation. The results were analyzed using classical descriptive statistics and geostatistics. The soil at the studied area is very sandy and presented low values of cation exchange capacity, C content and microbial biomass; high values of bulk density and soil acidity and medium values of P content and available bases. Those results are typical for soils under native vegetation at the semi-arid region due to unfavorable climatic conditions. From the descriptive analyses, the majority of the studied attributes presented normal distribution. The coefficients of variation (CV) for the majority of the studied attributes presented medium values; the spatial dependence was moderated with mean range value of 135 m. The majority of the attributes were fitted by the spherical model. Assessment of model adjustment efficiency was performed through internal and external validations and both presented similar trends. The application of modeling technique provides estimations of the range and the spatial dependence magnitude of the evaluated soil attributes. Using kriging techniques, analytical results were interpolated and maps were generated to show the spatial variability of the soil physical, chemical and biological properties. The results from the present study stressed the importance of adequately understand C and other soil properties spatial variability. Such information has important implications for future assessments of soil C sequestration and is useful for potential production of Jatropha in the semi-arid condition of the Brazilian northeast region.
|
104 |
Impacto dos meios de vida e vulnerabilidade de agricultores familiares do semiárido / Impact of livelihoods and vulnerability of semi-arid family farmersKauling, Samantha 01 August 2017 (has links)
As famílias rurais do semiárido vivem sob constante vulnerabilidade climática, cujas atividades agropecuárias são comprometidas pela instabilidade hídrica, pela produção em solos empobrecidos e também pela demanda de altos investimentos na modernização dos seus sistemas produtivos. A consequência é um povo marginalizado, pobre, sem acesso a alimentação em quantidade e qualidade suficientes, desencadeando na migração para grandes centros ou ainda, a exploração e degradação dos recursos da Caatinga na tentativa de desenvolver suas atividades e assim permanecer no campo. Diante a problemática da seca, muitas estratégias de convivência com o semiárido são promovidas, as quais favorecem o acesso à água e a inclusão social. No entanto, o cenário atual enfatiza a necessidade de medidas mais eficientes para o fortalecimento da agricultura familiar, que devem ser condizentes à realidade do agricultor e harmoniosas com o meio ambiente. Portanto, para elucidar questões sobre a realidade de agricultores familiares do semiárido e gerar informações como subsídio a atuação de agentes externos, o presente trabalho compreendeu as vulnerabilidades dos meios de vida de agricultores familiares. Bem como, a importância e o impacto dos recursos (água, produção e área consolidada) dos meios de vida de agricultores familiares. Foram realizadas entrevistas com 23 famílias distribuídas em municípios da Bacia do Jacuípe e aplicados quatros métodos multivariados, por meio da (i) análise de agrupamentos, (ii) análise de componentes principais, (iii) análise de fatores e (iv) análise de seleção das variáveis. Os resultados apontaram para a produção que aqueles com maior número de matrizes (vacas em lactação ou caprinos para carne) diversificam suas rendas com a venda de galinhas e ovos e possuem RL com entrada de animais. Enquanto aquelas com propriedades entre 0-20 ha trabalham, somente, com a produção de hortaliças, cuja fonte de renda é o próprio negócio. Famílias com propriedades entre 20-66 ha criam caprinos, não possuem APP e não utilizam equipamentos via associações ou empréstimos. Quanto as famílias com propriedades entre 66-80 ha, embora criem caprinos, sua comercialização não é a principal fonte de renda. Assim, concluiu-se que os meios de vida das famílias rurais do semiárido apresentam maior vulnerabilidade nos seguintes recursos: financeiro (devido ao baixo retorno econômico de suas atividades e à comercialização de seus produtos, bem como às dificuldades de acesso ao crédito) e social (falta de conhecimentos técnicos resultando em práticas agropecuárias defasadas e insustentáveis, desencadeando uma má utilização dos recursos locais). O acesso aos programas sociais disponíveis e a participação em associações ou cooperativas são fundamentais para viabilizar as estratégias de convivência com o semiárido. A gestão da água (acesso e bom uso do recurso) e a aplicação dos conhecimentos tradicionais favorecem a segurança alimentar das famílias rurais. As principais estratégias de convivência com o semiárido focam no acesso a água e em alternativas para suprir a falta de alimento para o animal. O tamanho da propriedade e de produção impactam a conservação da caatinga, assim como, o tamanho da propriedade influencia no foco de produção agropecuário. Por fim, o uso eficiente da água depende de tecnologias e boas práticas que permitam o seu melhor aproveitamento. / Countryside families who lives in the semi-arid region are under constant climate vulnerability, whose agricultural activities are compromised by water instability, production in impoverished soils and by the demand for high investments in the modernization of their productive systems. The consequence is a marginalized, poor people, without access to food in sufficient quantity and quality, triggering the migration to big centers or the exploitation and degradation of Caatinga resources in attempt to develop their activities and thus remain in rural areas. Faced with drought problem, many strategies for living with the semi-arid are promoted, which favor access to water and social inclusion. However, the current scenario emphasizes the need for more efficient alternatives to strengthen family farming, which must be applicable to reality of farmers and harmonious with environment. Based on the assumption that more financial resources favor the development of family agriculture, but also the awareness of use and better exploitation of local resources available in their lives, the present work understood importance and use of resources of the livelihoods (human, Social, physical, financial and natural) through the methodology Sustainable Livelihoods. interviews were conducted with 23 families included on a program called Adapta Sertão, selected with a focus on production and size of the property, distributed in municipalities of the Jacuípe Basin. To verify the impact of family farmer livelihoods, 20 factors were generated based on 99 observed variables and four multivariate methods were applied, through (i) cluster analysis, (ii) principal component analysis, (iii) analysis of factors and (iv) analysis of selection of variables. The results showed that, based on the production focus, most of the families work with milk production, and there is a direct relationship between a higher production of animals and, consequently, a lower presence of APP. Families with higher numbers of animals (lactating cows or goats for meat) are those that diversify their family income through the sale of chickens and eggs, but who have RL with animals. Families with properties between 0-20 ha are those that produce only vegetables and have their own business as main source of income (they do not work with raising goats and selling milk). Families with properties between 20-66 ha, have no APP and do not use equipment via associations or loans. However, they are those that work with the creation of goats. Regarding families with properties between 66-80 ha, although they raise goats, their commercialization is not the main source of income. Thus, it was concluded that the guarantee of food security of countryside families who lives in the semi-arid region are vulnerable in the following resources: financial (due to the low economic return of their activities and the commercialization of their products, as well as the difficulties of access to credit) and (Lack of technical knowledge resulting in lagging and unsustainable agricultural practices, triggering misuse of local resources). Access to available social programs and participation in associations or cooperatives are fundamental to enable the strategies to coexist with the semi-arid region.
|
105 |
Influência da vazão afluente do rio de Contas sobre a qualidade da água do Reservatório Pedra, estado da Bahia, Brasil / Influence of Contas river inflow on water quality of Pedra reservoir, Bahia state, BrazilCARVALHO, Lucas Brainer de 03 May 2010 (has links)
Submitted by (edna.saturno@ufrpe.br) on 2017-02-15T15:31:59Z
No. of bitstreams: 1
Lucas Brainer de Carvalho.pdf: 2127247 bytes, checksum: 494ab9eb5e7aefab43af3c982cc03d23 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-02-15T15:31:59Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1
Lucas Brainer de Carvalho.pdf: 2127247 bytes, checksum: 494ab9eb5e7aefab43af3c982cc03d23 (MD5)
Previous issue date: 2010-05-03 / Variations in water physical and chemical characteristics are more frequent in reservoirs located in semi-arid regions where rainfall is seasonal, as the Pedra reservoir. This study evaluated the influence of multi-annual inflow of the Contas River on limnological variables of Pedra reservoir and its relation with reservoir´s water level. Quarterly samples were taken in eleven stations between 2005 and 2007, during the wet and dry seasons and significant differences were analyzed using the Kruskal-Wallis test for variables (pH, conductivity, dissolved oxygen, temperature, euphotic zone, nitrate, nitrite, turbidity, inorganic phosphate, total phosphate, total phosphorus, water level, rainfall and inflow). All variables showed significant differences (p <0.05), with the exception of nitrite, turbidity, and inorganic phosphate. A principal component analysis (PCA) was performed for each month, including data for the three years. Nutrients´ concentrations showed higher values, when water level presented lower values. The PCA showed that variables presented no similar seasonal pattern, but formed distinct monthly clusters for each year, with different determining variables, such as nutrients in 2005, euphotic zone, pH and conductivity in 2006, and water level, rainfall and inflow in 2007. / Variações nas características físicas e químicas da água são mais freqüentes em reservatórios localizados em regiões semi-áridas, onde o período de chuvas é sazonal, como no reservatório de Pedra. Este trabalho avaliou plurianualmente a influência da vazão afluente do rio de Contas sobre variáveis limnológicas do reservatório de Pedra e sua relação com a cota do reservatório. Foram realizadas coletas trimestrais em onze estações de coletas, entre 2005 e 2007, durante os períodos seco e chuvoso, e as diferenças significativas foram analisadas através do teste de Kruskal-Wallis para as variáveis (pH, condutividade elétrica, oxigênio dissolvido, temperatura, zona eufótica, nitrato, nitrito, turbidez, fosfato inorgânico, fosfato total, fósforo total, cota, chuva e afluência) As variáveis apresentaram diferença significativa (p < 0,05), com exceção do nitrito, turbidez e fosfato inorgânico. Uma análise de componentes principais (ACP) foi realizada para cada mês, envolvendo os três anos. As concentrações dos nutrientes apresentaram valores elevados quando o reservatório apresentava as menores cotas. A ACP mostrou não existir um padrão sazonal semelhante para as variáveis, geralmente apresentando agrupamentos distintos para cada ano, com variáveis determinantes distintas, sendo nutrientes em 2005, zona eufótica, pH e condutividade em 2006, e cota, afluência e chuva em 2007.
|
106 |
Avaliação de clones de Panicum maximum Jacq. submetidos à suspensão hídricaLIMA, Amanda Ferreira de 22 July 2009 (has links)
Submitted by (edna.saturno@ufrpe.br) on 2017-03-17T15:56:06Z
No. of bitstreams: 1
Amanda Ferreira de Lima.pdf: 377887 bytes, checksum: fd40358a75475fdcdaedd3f5aa3cd8bc (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-03-17T15:56:06Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1
Amanda Ferreira de Lima.pdf: 377887 bytes, checksum: fd40358a75475fdcdaedd3f5aa3cd8bc (MD5)
Previous issue date: 2009-07-22 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / Conselho Nacional de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico - CNPq / The morphogenic characteristics of Panicum maximum Jacq. clones were evaluated during the regrowth period under water stress. The experiment was carried out in a greenhouse at the Animal Science Department - UFRPE, from March to September 2008. Samples collected in the of Sergipe state, municipalities of Pernambuco (São José da Coroa Grande, São Bento do Una and Itambé) and the Mombaça, Tanzania and Massai cultivars were evaluated. The seedlings were transplanted to experimental pots and fertilized with limestone and nitrogen. Two standardization cuts were performed and 27 days after the 2nd cut the clones were submitted to water stress. The establishment period until the application of water stress lasted 27 days. The experimental treatments were of 7, 14, 21 and 28 days without irrigation in order to evaluate the morphogenic characteristics in the regrowth period at 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12 and 14 days. A completely randomized design as a 4 x 7 (four periods of water stress x seven clones) factorial arrangement was used. Seven evaluations were performed in alternated days during the regrowth period. Estimates of plant height, leaf blade length, number of emerging green leaves, number of dead leaves and total number of tiller were the morphogenic characteristics evaluated during the regrowth period. Clone means were submitted to Tukey test at 5% of probability. Number of tillers, leaf blade length, plant height, number of dead leaves and number of green leaves were submitted to the analysis of variance in a repeated measure model within each stress period. No significant effect on clone regrowth under water stress from 7 to 28 days was detected. The highest water stress level favor the plant development after cutting. / Objetivou-se avaliar as características morfogênicas de clones de Panicum maximum Jacq. durante o período de rebrote após períodos de suspensão hídrica. O experimento foi realizado no Telado do Departamento de Zootecnia da UFRPE, no período de março a setembro de 2008. Foram avaliados materiais coletados nos municípios de Sergipe, São José da Coroa Grande, São Bento do Una e Itambé e os cultivares Mombaça, Tanzânia e Massai. As mudas foram transplantadas para vasos com capacidade para 7,5kg, preenchidos com solo previamente destorroado e corrigido, na proporção de 2 t/ha, fevereiro de 2008. Realizou-se adubação nitrogenada, na proporção de 50 kg/ha, em abril de 2008. Após o período de estabelecimento foram aplicados os períodos de suspensão hídrica. Foram realizados dois cortes de uniformização e 27 dias após o 2o corte os clones foram submetidos à suspensão hídrica. O período de estabelecimento até a aplicação dos períodos de estresse durou 37 dias. Os tratamentos experimentais constaram de submeter os clones a períodos de suspensão hídrica (sete, quatorze, vinte e um e vinte e oito dias sem irrigação) e avaliar as características morfogênicas no período de rebrota. O delineamento experimental utilizado foi o inteiramente casualizado, em um arranjo fatorial quatro x sete. Foram realizadas sete avaliações em dias alternados no período de rebrote. As variáveis estudadas foram altura da planta, comprimento da lâmina foliar, número de folhas verdes em expansão, número de folhas mortas e número total de perfilhos. Para comparação entre médias de clones utilizou-se o teste Tukey, a 5% de probabilidade. A rebrota dos clones avaliados pouco diferenciam após níveis de suspensão hídrica de 7 a 28 dias. O maior nível de suspensão hídrica avaliado favorece o desenvolvimento da planta após o corte.
|
107 |
Valor nutritivo de diferentes variedades de palma forrageira resistentes à cochonilha do carmimMORAES, Anidene Christina Alves de 27 August 2012 (has links)
Submitted by (edna.saturno@ufrpe.br) on 2017-03-22T14:26:40Z
No. of bitstreams: 1
Anidene Christina Alves de Moraes.pdf: 1093794 bytes, checksum: f314434eea1d9c2bf4f9ee0db1442dea (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-03-22T14:26:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1
Anidene Christina Alves de Moraes.pdf: 1093794 bytes, checksum: f314434eea1d9c2bf4f9ee0db1442dea (MD5)
Previous issue date: 2012-08-27 / Conselho Nacional de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico - CNPq / The objective of this work was to determine the nutritional value of spineless cactus varieties resistant Cochineal carmine (Dactylopius opuntiae Cockerell), “Orelha de Elefante Mexicana” (Opuntia stricta), “IPA-Sertania” (Nopalea cochenillifera), “Miuda” (Cochenillifera Nopalea Salm-Dyck), IPA-21 F (Nopalea cochenillifera). Used 24 sheep SPRD with initial weight of 21.0 ± 0.5 kg, distributed in a randomized complete block design with four treatments and six repetitions. The experimental diets were composed of cactus, soybean (Glycine max (L.)), urea and mineral salt farming. The intakes of dry matter, organic matter, neutral detergent fiber and digestible energy were, on average, 3.4% PC, 2.9% CP, 0.72% CP and 2.8 Mcal / day, respectively, and were not influenced by the variety of the palm. The digestibility of DM and OM were higher in diets composed by “Orelha de elefante Mexicana” “IPA Sertania”, compared to a diet composed by “Miuda” variety. The digestibility of NDF and energy were not influenced by the variety of palm and were, on average, 46.3% and 72.4%. The experimental diets did not influence weight gain or carcass yield, which averaged 89.0 g / day and 52.4%, respectively. The animals were given an average of 62.2 ml of water / day for two consecutive days every 3.3 days. The Mexicana varieties of “Orelha de elefante” (Opuntia stricta), “IPA-Sertânia” (Nopalea cochenillifera) and “IPA-F21” (Nopalea cochenillifera) can be fed to sheep without compromising its performance. / Objetivou-se com este trabalho determinar o valor nutricional das variedades de palma forrageira resistente à Cochonilha do carmim (Dactylopius opuntiae Cockerell): Orelha de Elefante Mexicana (Opuntia stricta), IPA-Sertânia (Nopalea cochenillifera), Miúda (Nopalea cochenillifera Salm-Dyck), IPA-F 21 (Nopalea cochenillifera). Foram utilizados 24 ovinos SPRD, com peso vivo inicial médio de 21,0±0,5 kg, distribuídos em delineamento experimental de blocos casualizados, com quatro tratamentos e seis repetições. As dietas experimentais foram compostas por palma forrageira, farelo de soja (Glycine max (L.)), uréia agropecuária e sal mineral. Os consumos de matéria seca, matéria orgânica, fibra em detergente neutro e energia digestível foram, em média, 3,4%PC; 2,9%PC; 0,72%PC e 2,8Mcal/dia, respectivamente, e não foram influenciados pela variedade da palma. Os coeficientes de digestibilidade da MS e da MO foram mais altos nas dietas compostas por Orelha-de-Elefante-Mexicana e IPA-Sertânia, em comparação a dieta composta pela variedade Miúda. Os coeficientes de digestibilidade da FDN e da energia não foram influenciados pela variedade de palma e foram, em média, 46,3% e 72,4%. As dietas experimentais não influenciaram o ganho de peso nem o rendimento de carcaça, que foram em média 89,0 g/dia e 52,4%, respectivamente. Os animais ingeriram em média 62,2 mL de água/dia, por dois dias consecutivos, e mantiveram intervalo de 3,3 dias sem consumir agua voluntariamente. As variedades Orelha de Elefante Mexicana (Opuntia stricta), IPA-Sertânia (Nopalea cochenillifera) e IPA-F21 (Nopalea cochenillifera) e Miúda (Nopalea cochenillifera Salm-Dyck) podem ser utilizadas na alimentação de ovinos sem comprometer seu desempenho.
|
108 |
Potential for revegetation of degraded soil by iron mining using leguminous trees and waste shrimp / Potencial de revegetaÃÃo de solo degradado pela mineraÃÃo de ferro utilizando leguminosas arbÃreas e resÃduo de carciniculturaIsabel Cristina da Silva AraÃjo 06 March 2012 (has links)
CoordenaÃÃo de AperfeiÃoamento de Pessoal de NÃvel Superior / Dentre as alternativas para recuperar Ãreas degradadas està a adiÃÃo de resÃduos orgÃnicos visando melhorar a estrutura e a disponibilidade de nutrientes no substrato degradado. No Estado do CearÃ, o resÃduo orgÃnico proveniente de tanques de criaÃÃo de camarÃes (carcinicultura) merece destaque por apresentar teores relevantes de nutrientes e matÃria orgÃnica. O objetivo deste estudo foi comprovar a hipÃtese de que o resÃduo de carcinicultura favorece o desenvolvimento de leguminosas arbÃreas e melhora o substrato degradado. Na etapa inicial do estudo foi feita a caracterizaÃÃo geoquÃmica e fÃsico-quÃmica do resÃduo para identificar a presenÃa de pirita e o risco potencial de acidificaÃÃo. Posteriormente, foi instalado um experimento em casa de vegetaÃÃo com delineamento experimental em blocos casualizados e esquema fatorial
5x3, com quatro repetiÃÃes. Os tratamentos foram cinco doses de resÃduo de carcinicultura (0; 2; 4; 8; 12 Mg ha-1) e trÃs espÃcies de leguminosas: Sabià (Mimosa caesalpiniaefolia Benth), Leucena (Leucaena leucocephala) e Jurema Preta (Mimosa hostilis). TrÃs meses apÃs a adiÃÃo do resÃduo de carcinicultura foi avaliado o crescimento das leguminosas, bem como a fitomassa e o acÃmulo de nutrientes na parte
aÃrea e nas raÃzes. TambÃm foi avaliada a disponibilidade de nutrientes no substrato. Por meio dos resultados da anÃlise geoquÃmica do ferro foi observado baixo grau de piritizaÃÃo e, consequentemente baixo risco de acidificaÃÃo ao utilizar o resÃduo de carcinicultura. Ao final do perÃodo de trÃs meses de avaliaÃÃo do experimento em casa de vegetaÃÃo, constatou-se que as leguminosas arbÃreas responderam positivamente Ãs
doses de resÃduo. As espÃcies que apresentaram maior crescimento em altura e maior fitomassa foram Mimosa caesalpiniaefolia e Mimosa hostilis, apresentando tambÃm
maior acÃmulo de nutrientes. Os efeitos do resÃduo de carcinicultura no solo foram: aumento na condutividade elÃtrica e no pH. Conclui-se que o resÃduo da carcinicultura
favorece o crescimento e o desenvolvimento das leguminosas arbÃreas avaliadas no presente estudo, sem prejudicar atributos quÃmicos e fÃsicos do substrato e permitindo
maior disponibilidade de nutrientes de modo a favorecer o processo de revegetaÃÃo da Ãrea degradada. / The addition of organic residues is among the alternatives to rehabilitate
degraded lands, aiming to improve the structure as well as the nutrients availability of
mining spoils. In the Cearà State, the organic residue from shrimp farms (carcinicultura)
deserves attention because it contains relevant amount of nutrients and organic matter.
The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that residue from shrimp farms
improves the development of leguminous trees as well as the degraded land. In the
initial phase of this study both geochemical and physical-chemical characterization of
the organic residue were done aiming to identify the presence of pirite, and the potential
risk of acidification. One experiment was set up under controled conditions, in the
experimental design of randomized blocks in a factorial scheme 5x3, with four
replications. The treatments were five rates of organic residue from shrimp farms (0; 2;
4; 8; 12 Mg ha-1) and three leguminous trees species: Sabià (Mimosa caesalpiniaefolia
Benth), Leucena (Leucaena leucocephala) and Jurema Preta (Mimosa hostilis). Three
months after addition of the organic residue were evaluated the growth of leguminous
trees, the fitomass, as well as the nutrients accumulation in the above ground, and
bellow ground parts of the plants. The availability of nutrients in the substrate also was
evaluated. The results of the geochemical analysis showed low amount of pirite, and
consequently the low risk of acidification by the use of organic residue from shrimp
farms. After a period of three months was observed that leguminous trees presented
positive answer to rates of organic residue. The species that presented higher growth
and fitomass production were Mimosa caesalpiniaefolia and Mimosa hostilis,
presenting also the higher nutrients accumulation. The effects of the organic residue in
the soil were: increase in soil eletric conductivity, and pH. The conclusion is that the
organic residue from shrimp farms improved the growth and development of
leguminous trees in the present study, and it did not damage soil chemical and physical
attributes, allowing higher availability of nutrients to favour plant growth in degraded
land.
|
109 |
DistribuiÃÃo espacial de carbono, nutrientes e solo em Luvissolos sob sistemas agrÃcolas tradicionais e agroflorestais no municÃpio de Sobral-CE / Spatial distribution of carbon, nutrients and soil in luvisols under traditional farming systems and agroforestry in Sobral-CE DistribuiÃÃo espacial de carbono, nutrientes e solo em Luvissolos sob sistemas agrÃcolas tradicionais e agroflorestais no municÃpio de Sobral-CERafaella da Silva Nogueira 27 January 2009 (has links)
Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento CientÃfico e TecnolÃgico / O objetivo desse estudo foi avaliar os teores e estoques de carbono orgÃnico nas formas: total (COT), particulada (COP), associada (COA) e solÃvel em Ãgua (CSA), P disponÃvel, K e Na trocÃveis, assim como a possÃvel redistribuiÃÃo destes elementos e das partÃculas do solo pela erosÃo hÃdrica em sistemas agroflorestais, comparativamente ao sistema de cultivo tradicional e intensivo. O estudo foi desenvolvido em Ãrea experimental localizada na Fazenda Crioula, pertencente ao Centro Nacional de Pesquisa de Caprinos da EMBRAPA, no municÃpio de Sobral-CE. A partir de projeto desenvolvido desde 1997 foram selecionadas as seguintes Ãreas: Agrissilvipastoril (AGP), Silvipastoril (SILV), Tradicional 1 (TR1), Tradicional 2 (TR2), Cultivo Intensivo em Pousio (CIP), VegetaÃÃo Natural 1 (VG1) e VegetaÃÃo Natural 2 (VG2). A Ãrea estudada foi georeferenciada, nos transectos as amostras foram coletadas a profundidade de 0-5 cm a cada 20, 10 ou 5 m de acordo com o relevo. Os teores de COT foram determinados por oxidaÃÃo Ãmida, o CSA por centrifugaÃÃo seguida de oxidaÃÃo Ãmida, o fÃsforo (P) disponÃvel, K+ e Na+ trocÃveis por extraÃÃo com Mehlich I e colorimetria. Determinou-se tambÃm a densidade e a textura do solo, onde na fraÃÃo areia o COP foi quantificado por oxidaÃÃo Ãmida enquanto que o COA foi obtido por diferenÃa entre o COT e o COP. Os resultados foram avaliados atravÃs de medidas descritivas e tÃcnicas geoestatÃsticas. As Ãreas sob manejo agroflorestal apresentaram teores e estoques de carbono e nutrientes superiores, mesmo em condiÃÃes de relevo favorÃveis a perdas por processo erosivo. A fraÃÃo areia foi comumente alterada pela aÃÃo dos agentes erosivos nos sistemas conservadores, enquanto que nos sistemas mais intensivos a argila foi mais afetada devido à erosÃo està promovendo perdas do horizonte Bt nestas Ãreas. As estimativas de perdas e incrementos de solo e nutrientes confirmaram a eficiÃncia do SAFâs em reduzir os efeitos da erosÃo enquanto que as Ãreas tradicionais promoveram maiores perdas de nutrientes e solo. AlÃm disso, observou-se o predomÃnio de uma maior variabilidade espacial nos SAFâs, quando comparado as Ãreas manejadas de forma convencional que apresentaram um aspecto uniforme devido à maior aÃÃo dos agentes erosivos. / The objective of this study was to evaluate the content and stocks of: organic carbon in
the form total (TOC), particulate (COP), associated (COA) and soluble in water (CSA),
available P, K and Na exchangeable, as well as possible redistribution of these elements
and soil particles by water erosion in agroforestry systems, compared to the traditional
system of cultivation and intensive. The study was developed in an experimental area
located at the Crioula Farm, CNPC â EMBRAPA, in Sobral County, CE. The following
systems were evaluated: Agrisilvipastoril (AGP), Silvipastoril (SILV), Traditional
1(TR1), Traditional 2(TR2), Fallow Intense Cropping (CIP), Natural Vegetation 1 (VG1)
and Natural Vegetation 2 (VG2). The studied field was georeferenced in transects and
soil samples were collected to a depth of 0-5 cm every 20, 10 or 5 m, according to the
condition of terrain. The TOC content was determined by wet oxidation, the CSA for
centrifugation followed by wet oxidation, phosphorus (P) available, K and Na
exchangeable was extracted by Mehlich-1 and determined colorimetrially. Was
determined also the soil density and texture, where it was determined in the sand
fraction COP by wet oxidation while the COA was obtained by the difference between
the TOC and COP. The results were analyzed using descriptive statistic and geostatistic
technique. The areas under management and agroforestry showed content of carbon
stocks and superior nutrients, even under conditions favorable for significant losses for
the erosion process. The sand fraction was commonly altered by the action of agents in
erosive systems conservatives, while more intensive systems in the clay was most
affected due to erosion is causing great losses of Bt horizon in these areas. Estimates of
losses and gains of soil nutrients and confirmed the efficiency of the SAF's to reduce the
effects of erosion while the traditional areas promoted stronger loss of nutrients and soil.
Moreover, there is predominance bigger spatial variability in the SAF's, compared the
areas managed in a way that presented a conventional uniform appearance due to
greater erosive action of the agents.
|
110 |
Modelo de PrevisÃo Sazonal de Chuva Para o Estado do Cearà Baseado em Redes Neurais Artificiais / SEASONAL FORECASTING MODEL OF RAIN FOR THE STATE OF CEARA BASED ON ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKSThiago Nogueira de Castro 15 September 2011 (has links)
nÃo hà / Sistemas climatolÃgicos sÃo caracterizados por apresentarem modelagem complexa e de baixa previsibilidade. Em regiÃes de clima semiÃrido, como o Nordeste Brasileiro, informaÃÃes de previsÃo climatolÃgicas sÃo de interesse para um melhor aproveitamento dos recursos hÃdricos. O Estado do CearÃ, localizado no norte do Nordeste Brasileiro, sofre periodicamente com os problemas de estiagem. Atualmente a FundaÃÃo Cearense de Meteorologia e Recursos HÃdricos (FUNCEME), ÃrgÃo pertencente ao governo do Estado do CearÃ, à responsÃvel por gerar pesquisas voltadas a trazer um melhor entendimento fenomenolÃgico do clima do Estado e com isso efetuar uma melhor previsÃo de como serà o perÃodo de chuvas. Hoje a FundaÃÃo utiliza-se de modelagem numÃrica composta por dois modelos regionais, Modelo Regional Espectral 97 (MRE) e o Regional Modeling Atmospheric System (RAMS), aninhados por uma tÃcnica de downscaling ao modelo dinÃmico de grande escala ECHAM4.5, para efetuar suas previsÃes. Os modelos dinÃmicos sÃo caracterizados por apresentarem elevado custo computacional, grande quantidade de dados para sua entrada e alta complexidade na utilizaÃÃo. O desenvolvimento de modelos de previsÃo baseados em Redes Neurais Artificias (RNA) abrange diversas Ãreas do conhecimento e tem apresentado resultados promissores. Modelos baseados em redes neurais sÃo capazes de reproduzir deferentes tipos de sistemas atravÃs da sua capacidade de aprendizado. Nesta dissertaÃÃo foi desenvolvido um modelo de previsÃo de chuvas para as oito regiÃes homogÃneas do Estado do CearÃ, que apresenta um baixo custo computacional e de fÃcil utilizaÃÃo. Para atingir este desenvolvimento foi utilizada uma RNA baseada na tÃcnica Neo-Fuzzy Neuron (NFN). Apesar de ser proposto um novo modelo de previsÃo, nÃo se deseja a substituiÃÃo dos atuais modelos, o novo modelo proposto nesta dissertaÃÃo tem por finalidade enriquecer as informaÃÃes geradas atravÃs de modelos de previsÃo para que assim possa ser gerada uma melhor prediÃÃo de como serà o perÃodo de chuvas no Estado do CearÃ. O modelo proposto foi comparado ao modelo MRE que à atualmente utilizado pela FUNCEME para suas previsÃes. Nesta comparaÃÃo utilizou-se como indicadores de desempenho: tempo de execuÃÃo, valor da raiz quadrada do erro mÃdio quadrÃtico (REMQ) e a correlaÃÃo com os valores observados. Ao final pode-se concluir que o modelo desenvolvido apresentou um melhor desempenho com menor tempo de processamento em relaÃÃo ao modelo dinÃmico MRE para efetuar a previsÃo de chuvas. / Climatological systems are characterized by complex modeling and having low predictability. In semi-arid regions, as the Brazilian Northeast, weather forecast information are necessary for the maintenance of life and a better use of water resources. The State of CearÃ, located on the north of Brazilian Northeast, is a region that suffers with drought for a long time. The FundaÃÃo Cearense de Meteorologia e Recursos HÃdricos (FUNCEME), which belongs to the state government, is responsible for generating research to bring a better phenomenological understanding on the weather of the State of Cearà and thus make a better prediction on how the rainy season will be. Today the foundation makes use of numerical modeling consisting of two regional models, the Regional Spectral Model (RSM) and the Regional Modeling Atmospheric System (RAMS), nested by a downscaling technique to the large scale dynamic model ECHAM4.5, in order to do its predictions. Dynamic models are characterized by their high computational costs, large amounts of information on its input and high complexity usage. The development of forecasting models based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) covers various areas of knowledge showing promising results. Neural network based models are capable of reproducing different types of systems through its learning capability. In this thesis it was developed a model for predicting rain for the eight homogeneous regions of the state of Cearà that presents low computational cost and easy use. In order to achieve this development it was used an ANN base on a Neo-Fuzzy Neuron (NFN) technique. Despite being offered a new prediction model, this thesis aims to enrich the information generated by forecast models and do a better prediction on the rainy season of the State of CearÃ. The proposed model was compared to the RSM model that is currently in use by FUNCEME in its predictions. In this comparison, as performance indicators, it was used: the execution time, value of the root mean square error (RMSE) and the correlation with the observed values. At the end, it is concluded that the proposed model had a better performance and was faster than the RSM dynamic model in its predictions.
|
Page generated in 0.0816 seconds