本研究共壹冊，預計四萬至六萬字，分五章：第一章、導論；第二章、文獻探討；第 三章、研究方法；第四章、研究結果；第五章、結論與建議。 內容提要 內容主要在探討大台北地區兒童才藝班消費行為，包括： 一、瞭解兒童才藝班之市場。 二、探討兒童才藝班購買者之購買行為、購買動機、對各兒童才藝班之評價、如覺與 偏好。 三、從購買者人口統計變數、生活型態來分析購買行為的差異性，以作為市場區隔的 基礎。 四、探討上述分析結果對於主辦兒童才藝班之機構在行銷策略上之涵義，並且希望能 對家長在選擇兒童才藝班時有所助益。

À partir des observations Z(n) = {(Xi, Yi), i = 1, ..., n} satisfaisant Yi = f(Xi) + ζi, nous voulons reconstruire la fonction f. Nous évaluons la qualité d'estimation par deux critères : le risque Ls et le risque uniforme. Dans ces deux cas, les hypothèses imposées sur la distribution du bruit ζi serons de moment borné et de type sous-gaussien respectivement. En proposant une collection des estimateurs à noyau, nous construisons une procédure, qui est initié par Goldenshluger et Lepski, pour choisir l'estimateur dans cette collection, sans aucune condition sur f. Nous prouvons ensuite que cet estimateur satisfait une inégalité d'oracle, qui nous permet d'obtenir les estimations minimax et minimax adaptatives sur les classes de Hölder anisotropes. / From the observation Z(n) = {(Xi, Yi), i = 1, ..., n} satisfying Yi = f(Xi) + ζi, we would like to approximate the function f. This problem will be considered in two cases of loss function, Ls-risk and uniform risk, where the condition imposed on the distribution of the noise ζi is of bounded moment and of type sub-gaussian, respectively. From a proposed family of kernel estimators, we construct a procedure, which is initialized by Goldenshluger and Lepski, to choose in this family a final estimator, with no any assumption imposed on f. Then, we show that this estimator satisfies an oracle inequality which implies the minimax and minimax adaptive estimation over the anisotropic Hölder classes.

Dans cette thèse, nous proposons des modèles probabilistes et statistiques d’analyse de données multidimensionnelles pour la prévision de l’incertitude sur les trajectoires d’aéronefs. En supposant que pendant le vol, chaque aéronef suit sa trajectoire 3D contenue dans son plan de vol déposé, nous avons utilisé l’ensemble des caractéristiques de l’environnement des vols comme variables indépendantes pour expliquer l’heure de passage des aéronefs sur les points de leur trajectoire de vol prévue. Ces caractéristiques sont : les conditions météorologiques et atmosphériques, les paramètres courants des vols, les informations contenues dans les plans de vol déposés et la complexité de trafic. Typiquement, la variable dépendante dans cette étude est la différence entre les instants observés pendant le vol et les instants prévus dans les plans de vol pour le passage des aéronefs sur les points de leur trajectoire prévue : c’est la variable écart temporel. En utilisant une technique basée sur le partitionnement récursif d’un échantillon des données, nous avons construit quatre modèles. Le premier modèle que nous avons appelé CART classique est basé sur le principe de la méthode CART de Breiman. Ici, nous utilisons un arbre de régression pour construire une typologie des points des trajectoires des vols en fonction des caractéristiques précédentes et de prévoir les instants de passage des aéronefs sur ces points. Le second modèle appelé CART modifié est une version améliorée du modèle précédent. Ce dernier est construit en remplaçant les prévisions calculées par l’estimation de la moyenne de la variable dépendante dans les nœuds terminaux du modèle CART classique par des nouvelles prévisions données par des régressions multiples à l’intérieur de ces nœuds. Ce nouveau modèle développé en utilisant l’algorithme de sélection et d’élimination des variables explicatives (Stepwise) est parcimonieux. En effet, pour chaque nœud terminal, il permet d’expliquer le temps de vol par des variables indépendantes les plus pertinentes pour ce nœud. Le troisième modèle est fondé sur la méthode MARS, modèle de régression multiple par les splines adaptatives. Outre la continuité de l’estimateur de la variable dépendante, ce modèle permet d’évaluer les effets directs des prédicteurs et de ceux de leurs interactions sur le temps de passage des aéronefs sur les points de leur trajectoire de vol prévue. Le quatrième modèle utilise la méthode d’échantillonnage bootstrap. Il s’agit notamment des forêts aléatoires où pour chaque échantillon bootstrap de l’échantillon de données initial, un modèle d’arbre de régression est construit, et la prévision du modèle général est obtenue par une agrégation des prévisions sur l’ensemble de ces arbres. Malgré le surapprentissage observé sur ce modèle, il est robuste et constitue une solution au problème d’instabilité des arbres de régression propre à la méthode CART. Les modèles ainsi construits ont été évalués et validés en utilisant les données test. Leur application au calcul des prévisions de la charge secteur en nombre d’avions entrants a montré qu’un horizon de prévision d’environ 20 minutes pour une fenêtre de temps supérieure à 20 minutes permettait d’obtenir les prévisions avec des erreurs relatives inférieures à 10%. Parmi ces modèles, CART classique et les forêts aléatoires présentaient de meilleures performances. Ainsi, pour l’autorité régulatrice des courants de trafic aérien, ces modèles constituent un outil d’aide pour la régulation et la planification de la charge des secteurs de l’espace aérien contrôlé. / In this thesis we propose probabilistic and statistic models based on multidimensional data for forecasting uncertainty on aircraft trajectories. Assuming that during the flight, aircraft follows his 3D trajectory contained into his initial flight plan, we used all characteristics of flight environment as predictors to explain the crossing time of aircraft at given points on their planned trajectory. These characteristics are: weather and atmospheric conditions, flight current parameters, information contained into the flight plans and the air traffic complexity. Typically, in this study, the dependent variable is difference between actual time observed during flight and planned time to cross trajectory planned points: this variable is called temporal difference. We built four models using method based on partitioning recursive of the sample. The first called classical CART is based on Breiman CART method. Here, we use regression trees to build points typology of aircraft trajectories based on previous characteristics and to forecast crossing time of aircrafts on these points. The second model called amended CART is the previous model improved. This latter is built by replacing forecasting estimated by the mean of dependent variable inside the terminal nodes of classical CART by new forecasting given by multiple regression inside these nodes. This new model developed using Stepwise algorithm is parcimonious because for each terminal node it permits to explain the flight time by the most relevant predictors inside the node. The third model is built based on MARS (Multivariate adaptive regression splines) method. Besides continuity of the dependent variable estimator, this model allows to assess the direct and interaction effects of the explanatory variables on the crossing time on flight trajectory points. The fourth model uses boostrap sampling method. It’s random forests where for each bootstrap sample from the initial data, a tree regression model is built like in CART method. The general model forecasting is obtained by aggregating forecasting on the set of trees. Despite the overfitting observed on this model, it is robust and constitutes a solution against instability problem concerning regression trees obtained from CART method. The models we built have been assessed and validated using data test. Their using to compute the sector load forecasting in term to aircraft count entering the sector shown that, the forecast time horizon about 20 minutes with the interval time larger than 20 minutes, allowed to obtain forecasting with relative errors less than 10%. Among all these models, classical CART and random forests are more powerful. Hence, for regulator authority these models can be a very good help for managing the sector load of the airspace controlled.

Made available in DSpace on 2017-07-21T14:19:22Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Rodrigo Souza.pdf: 360141 bytes, checksum: 6bf9d8f9ce30fb6fa717ad9798736d1e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-07-22 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / The competition of water in different regions of the world, between agriculture and the human needs, has led to restrictions in the increase of food production, resulting in search for alternative sources. The use of effluent from secondary treatment of sewage (ETSE) has been a common practice in several seasonal situations. The aims of this work were: (i) create regression models to assist in the understanding of the dynamics of acidity (current, exchangeable and total), the exchangeable bases and the exchangeable sodium percentage (ESP) in the soil, through the use of multiple linear regression (RLM), considering variables of soil, soil solution, plant, ETSE, weather and complementary variables, and (ii) compare the generated models with the standard method and the models generated from selecting variables. For the construction of the MLR models, the method of stepwise variable selection, forward and backward were used and compared with the standard method through the index adjusted determination coefficient (R2adj) and the variance inflation factor (VIF). The models developed from the method of variables selection were the most indicated. All the attributes in the scenarios and layers of the studied soils were not explained by the same group of variables. In general the results were consistent as far as the pH increased, the H + Al (total acidity) and Al (potential acidity) concentration decreased and Ca (calcium), Mg (magnesium) were increased. Because of the low-K (potassium) in the soil, the contribution of this nutrient by irrigation with ETSE cause little influence in the concentrations of this element. Due to the high sodium absorption ratio (SAR) in the effluent concentrations of this element, as well as PST were increased over time in soil. The accumulation and export of Na (sodium) by plants was not sufficient to prevent the increase in the concentrations of exchangeable Na and ESP in all studied scenarios and layers. / A concorrência de água entre o setor agrícola e as necessidades humanas em diversas regiões do mundo tem ocasionado restrições no incremento da produção de alimentos, implicando em buscas por fontes alternativas. A utilização de efluente de tratamento secundário de esgoto (ETSE) tem sido uma prática comum em várias situações sazonais. Objetivou-se neste trabalho:(i) criar modelos de regressão para auxiliar no entendimento da dinâmica da acidez (trocável e total), bases trocáveis e percentual de sódio trocável (PST) no solo, através do uso de regressão linear múltipla (RLM), considerando variáveis de solo, solução no solo, planta, ETSE, meteorológicas e variáveis complementares; e (ii) comparar os modelos gerados com método padrão e os modelos gerados com seleção de variáveis. Para construção dos modelos de RLM foram utilizados o método de seleção de variáveis stepwise, forward e backward e comparados com o método padrão, através dos índices de coeficiente de determinação ajustado (R2adj) e do fator de inflação de variância (FIV). Os modelos desenvolvidos a partir do método de seleção de variáveis foram os mais indicados. Todos os atributos nos cenários e camadas de solos estudados não foram explicadas por um mesmo grupo de variáveis. De modo geral, os resultados foram coerentes, pois na medida em que o pH aumentou, as concentrações H+Al e Al diminuíram e as de Ca e Mg foram incrementadas. O baixo teor de K no solo, evidenciou que o aporte desse nutriente pela irrigação com ETSE pouco influência as concentrações desse elemento. Devido à alta razão de adsorção de sódio (RAS) no ETSE as concentrações deste elemento, bem como PST foram aumentadas ao longo do tempo no solo. O acúmulo e a exportação de Na pelas plantas não foi suficiente para evitar o incremento nas concentrações de Na trocável e PST em todos os cenários e camadas estudados.

O carcinoma basocelular (CBC) é tumor constituído por diferentes tipos histológicos, que demonstram diverso potencial de agressividade. Sabe-se que a correlação entre os tipos histológicos de CBC encontrados no material de biópsia pré-operatória e no material da peça cirúrgica excisional não é total. Na literatura esta correlação varia de 42,7 a 80,0% quando analisados os tipos histológicos predominantes (THP). No presente estudo foi feita análise retrospectiva de 70 casos de CBC primário submetidos a biópsia préoperatória e cirurgia excisional. A amostra foi analisada estatisticamente quanto ao gênero e idade dos doentes e localização anatômica dos CBC, demonstrando ser comparável aos demais estudos da literatura. Também foram avaliados o tamanho médio tumoral e o tipo de reconstrução utilizado. A média do maior eixo dos CBC foi de 20 mm e 54% dos casos necessitaram reconstrução complexa, como retalhos e enxertos, mostrando ser amostra representativa de tumores de médio a grande porte. A avaliação histológica foi feita de modo padronizado, determinando tanto o THP quanto os tipos histológicos acessórios (THA) encontrados no material das biópsias pré-operatórias e nas peças cirúrgicas excisionais. Houve 78,3% de correlação entre THP da biópsia e peça cirúrgica, 87,0% de correlação entre THP e/ou THA da biópsia e THP da peça cirúrgica e 92,7% de correlação entre tipos agressivos ou não agressivos. Conclui-se que a biópsia préoperatória é útil para predizer o THP de CBC da peça cirúrgica excisional na maioria dos casos. No entanto, é importante ressaltar que, quando descrito apenas o THP encontrado na biópsia, ocorre 21,7% de falha no diagnóstico. Quando descritos THP e THA encontrados na biópsia a falha diagnóstica cai para 13%. Quando a intenção da biópsia for a determinação da presença de tipos de CBC agressivos ou não, a falha no diagnóstico é de apenas 7,3% / Basal cell carcinoma (BCC) is a tumor presenting many histological types, each one possessing a specific aggressivity potential. It\'s known that correlation between histological types found in preoperative biopsy specimens and excisional surgery specimens is not total. When correlation between predominant histological types (PHT) is analyzed, concordance value varies from 42,7 to 80,0% in the literature. In the present study 70 primary BCC submitted to preoperative biopsy and excisional surgery were retrospectively analyzed. The sample was statistically analyzed in terms of patients\' gender and age and anatomical location of the tumour and was found to be similar to other reports in the literature. Average size of tumors and type of surgical reconstruction employed were also evaluated. Average size of the largest tumour axis was 20 mm and 54% of the cases needed complex reconstructions, such as flaps and grafts, demonstrating that the sample was represented by medium to large sized tumors. Histological evaluation was made in a patterned way, determining PHT and accessory histological types (AHT) in both preoperative biopsies and excisional surgery specimens. Results obtained were: 78.3% correlation between biopsy PHT and excisional surgery PHT, 87.0% correlation between biopsy PHT and/or AHT and excisional surgery PHT and 92.7% correlation when BCC were classified as \"aggressive\" or \"non aggressive\" . Conclusion: preoperative biopsy is useful to predict BCC\'s PHT of excisional surgery specimen in most cases. However, it\'s important to note that when biopsy findings are limited to the description of the PHT , there is a 21.7% diagnostic failure. When both PHT and AHT found in biopsy are described, diagnostic failure falls to 13%. When the intention is determining the presence of aggressive or non aggressive types of BCC, diagnostic failure is only 7.3%

A hanseníase, doença crônica estigmatizante com potencial de causar danos neurológicos, resulta da infecção pelo Mycobacterium leprae. Análises epidemiológicas atuais têm utilizado ferramentas clínicas e de análise espacial para o mapeamento dos principais focos de ocorrência de doenças e de áreas de alto risco. Analisar os municípios maranhenses quanto à distribuição dos casos de hanseníase torna-se uma ferramenta a mais na prevenção e controle da Hanseníase no estado por inúmeros fatores: comporta-se como área hiperendêmica de hanseníase; apresenta fluxo migratório intenso com outras cidades de forma interestadual; e tem grandes contrastes sociais marcados por pouca, ou nenhuma, infraestrutura básica em algumas áreas dos vários municípios deste. Objetivos: Analisar a distribuição espaço-temporal da hanseníase para o estado do Maranhão, no período de 2001 a 2013. Identificar a ocorrência de agrupamentos espaços-temporais de provável alta transmissão (risco) e verificar se há associação dessa distribuição de taxas de detecção de risco relativo (RR) da doença com as variáveis do contexto geográfico como socioeconômicas e ambientais. Metodologia: A fonte de coleta dos dados clínicos e epidemiológicos foi o Sistema de Informação Nacional de Agravos Notificáveis do Ministério da Saúde e dos dados demográficos, ambientais e bases cartográficas digitais do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. Foi adotada uma abordagem ecológica sobre tendências dos padrões espaçostemporais de transmissibilidade, com utilização dos métodos: varredura espacial (scan), para a identificação dos agregados (clusters) de risco, considerando o modelo de distribuição de probabilidade Discreto de Poisson; Estimador Bayesiano Empírico para a suavização local de taxas, a partir de informações de municípios vizinhos tendo como estratégia de construção o critério da contiguidade; regressão múltipla espacial considerando uma modelagem com distribuição de Poisson no contexto Bayesiano, levando em conta a dependência espacial, com o propósito de avaliar a relação entre a ocorrência da variável dependente com as variáveis demográficas, socioeconômicas e ambientais. Resultados: A taxa média de detecção foi de 6,73 casos por 10.000 hab., com 53.826 casos notificados no período. O estudo revelou que a distribuição dos casos de sexo masculino (57,75%) apresentou maior proporção em relação ao feminino (42,25%), havendo predominância da doença na faixa etária >15 anos (89,87%). A alta ocorrência na classificação operacional multibacilar (60,10%) é um forte indicativo decorrente do longo período de incubação da doença somado ao não diagnóstico precoce. A análise da distribuição dos agregados espaciais identificou 14 (7 de risco alto e 7 de risco baixo) e 6 (3 de risco alto e 3 de risco baixo) agrupamentos espaciais, considerando-se 10% e 50% da população em risco, respectivamente, em áreas com taxas de detecção alta e que possuem baixa qualidade de vida. O estimador Bayesiano empírico local possibilitou gerar índices corrigidos e com menores instabilidades. A análise de regressão múltipla espacial mostrou que as variáveis índice Gini, bioma predominante cerrado/caatinga e percentual de população urbana tiveram associação positiva e significativa para explicar o risco relativo (RR) no estado do Maranhão. Conclusões: O estudo mostrou que existem aglomerados com elevado risco para transmissão da hanseníase no estado do Maranhão. A associação entre o risco relativo da hanseníase e o percentual de população urbana indica que a hipótese que associa o M. leprae e a população que vive em condições de acentuada desigualdade socioeconômica ainda é forte. Essa hiperendemicidade pode demonstrar que o crescimento da população urbana é um preditor de incidência da hanseníase, face à urbanização descontrolada e ao fluxo de migrantes advindos de diferentes espaços rurais. Foi possível identificar áreas prioritárias para implementação de programas eficazes de controle de hanseníase no estado do Maranhão. / Leprosy, a chronic stigmatizing disease with the potential to cause neurological damage resulting from infection by Mycobacterium leprae. Current epidemiological studies have used clinical and spatial analysis for mapping of the main occurrence of disease outbreaks and high-risk areas. Analyze the municipalities of Maranhão state regarding the distribution of leprosy cases becomes another tool in the prevention and control of leprosy in the state by numerous factors like behaves as hyper-endemic area of leprosy; It presents intense migration to other interstate cities; and has great social contrasts marked by little or no basic infrastructure in some areas of several municipalities.. Objectives: To analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of leprosy in the Maranhão state, from 2001 to 2013. To identify the spatiotemporal clusters occurrence of probable high transmission (risk) and check for association of this distribution of relative risk (RR) detection rates of the disease with the variables of geographic context as socioeconomic and environmental. Methodology: Clinical and epidemiological data was obtained from the Ministry of Healths Disease Reporting System and demographic data, environmental and digital cartographic bases were obtained from the Brazilian Geography and Statistics Institute. An ecological approach to trends transmissibility of spatiotemporal patterns, using the methods: spatial scan to identification the clusters of risk, considering the Discrete Poisson probability distribution model; empirical Bayesian method was applied for local rate flattening, using data from municipalities having as building strategy the criterion of contiguity; ecological regression modeling with considering a Poisson distribution in the Bayesian context, taking into account the spatial dependence, in order to evaluate the relationship between the occurrence of the dependent variable with demographic, socioeconomic and environmental variables. Results: The mean detection rate was 6.73 cases per 10,000 inhabitants, with 53,826 reported cases. The study revealed that the distribution of male cases (57.75%) showed a predominance over female (42.25%), with predominance of the disease in the age group upper than 15 years (89.87%). The high occurrence in operational classification multibacillary (60.10%) is a strong indication due to the long incubation period of the disease added to no early diagnosis. The analysis of the distribution of spatial clusters identified 14 (7 high risk and 7 low risk) and 6 (3 high risk and 3 low risk) spatial clusters, considering 10% and 50% of the population at risk in areas with high detection rates and which have low quality of life. Local empirical Bayes estimator allowed to generate fixed and minor instabilities indexes. The best results of modeling to spatial multiple regression analysis for the relative risk (RR) presented for the variables Gini index, cerrado/caatinga biome and percentage of urban population. Conclusions: The study showed that there are clusters at high risk for transmission of leprosy in the Maranhao state. The association between the relative risk of leprosy and the percentage of urban population indicates that the hypothesis that associates M. leprae and the population living in severe socioeconomic inequality is still strong. This hyperendemicity can demonstrate that the growth of the urban population is a predictor incidence of leprosy due to uncontrolled urbanization and the influx of migrants coming from different rural areas.It was possible to identify priority areas for implementation of effective leprosy control programs in the Maranhão state.

Este trabalho apresenta uma proposta para o ensino da Estatística e Probabilidade nas séries finais do Ensino Fundamental II. Seu objetivo é mostrar que a metodologia aqui adotada possibilita a aquisição de conceitos estatísticos e probabilísticos, assim como o desenvolvimento de habilidades pessoais e interpessoais. Trata de um projeto fundamentado em Planejamento de Experimentos com respaldo na aprendizagem ativa. Na sequência didática do projeto os alunos realizaram um experimento com aviões de papel no qual tiveram que responder, na prática, a seguinte questão \"Quais alterações podem ser feitas em um modelo de avião de papel para que ele permaneça mais tempo no ar?\". Para atestar a efetividade da sequência didática, foi construído e validado um Teste de Proficiência em Estatística e Probabilidade (TEPEP) com base nos fundamentos da Psicometria. A análise das características do teste foi feita por meio da Teoria Clássica dos Testes e da Teoria de Resposta ao Item. Foram sujeitos da pesquisa 391 alunos de escolas públicas e particulares da região do Vale do Paraíba, Estado de São Paulo. Desse total, 374 auxiliaram na validação do instrumento e os 17 alunos restantes participaram do projeto. Os resultados deste trabalho mostraram que o uso de Planejamento de Experimentos favoreceu a aprendizagem da Estatística e Probabilidade, desenvolvendo também outras competências. Em relação à validação do TEPEP, concluiu-se que os métodos psicométricos empregados têm grande potencial e devem ser mais explorados. Esta pesquisa apresenta, como produtos finais, a metodologia desenvolvida e o teste de proficiência construído, oferecendo ambos a professores e pesquisadores. / This work presents a proposal for teaching of Statistics and Probability, for the last years of Elementary School. Its objective is to show that the methodology adopted here allows the acquisition of statistical and probabilistic concepts, as well as the development of personal and interpersonal skills. It\'s a project with a didactic sequence grounded in Designs of Experiments, supported in active learning. In the didactic sequence of the project the students carried out an experiment with paper airplanes in which they had to answer, in practice, the following question \"What changes can be made to a paper airplane model so that it stays longer in the air?\". To attest the effectiveness of the didactic sequence, it was developed and validated a Proficiency Test in Statistics and Probability (PTSP), this using Psychometry. The analysis of the characteristics of the test was made through the Classical Test Theory and the Item Response Theory. The research subjects were a total of 391 students from public and private schools in the Vale do Paraíba region, State of São Paulo. Of this total, 17 students participated in the project. The other students (374) assisted in the test validation. The results of this research showed that the use of Design of Experiments favored the learning of Statistic and Probability, also to develop others competences. Regarding the validation of PTSP, it could be concluded that the psychometric methods used have potential and they should be more explored. This research acclaims, as final products, the developed methodology and the Proficiency test validated, both offered to teachers and researchers.

Les aquifères fissurés de type karst contiennent d'importantes ressources en eau. Ces aquifères sont complexes et hétérogènes sur une gamme d'échelles importantes. Leur gestion nécessite l'utilisation d'outils et de méthodologies adaptés. Dans le cadre de cette étude, différents outils et méthodologies numériques d'étude ont été développés pour la modélisation des aquifères karstiques, et plus généralement, des milieux poreux très fissurés 2D et 3D - en mettant l'accent sur la morphologie et sur le comportement hydrodynamique du milieu à travers la notion de changement d'échelle ("second changement d'échelle", reposant sur un modèle d'écoulement local de type Darcy et/ou Poiseuille avec quelques généralisations). Plusieurs axes sont explorés concernant la morphologie du milieu poreux fissuré (milieux aléatoires, milieux booléens avec réseaux statistiques de fissures, mais aussi, modèles morphogénétiques). L'étude du changement d'échelle hydrodynamique tourne autour du concept de macro perméabilité. Dans un premier temps, l'étude porte sur un modèle de perte de charge linéaire darcien. Les perméabilités effectives sont calculées numériquement en termes des fractions volumiques de fissures et du contraste de perméabilité matrice/fissures. Elles sont analysées et comparées à des modèles théoriques (analytiques). Une étude particulière des effets de quasi-percolation pour les grands contrastes aboutit à la définition de trois fractions critiques liées à des seuils de percolation. Pour tenir compte des effets inertiels dans les fissures, l'étude est étendue au cas d'une loi locale comprenant un terme quadratique en vitesse (Darcy/Ward-Forchheimer). Une perméabilité macroscopique équivalente non linéaire est définie et analysée à l'aide d'un modèle inertiel généralisé (linéaire/puissance). Enfin, l'anisotropie hydraulique à grande échelle du milieu fissuré est étudiée, en termes de perméabilités directionnelles, à l'aide d'une méthode numérique d'immersion. / Karstic aquifers contain large subsurface water resources. These aquifers are complex and heterogeneous on a large range of scales. Their management requires appropriate numerical tools and approaches. Various tools and numerical methodologies have been developed to characterize andmodel the geometry and hydraulic properties of karstic aquifers, more generally, of highly fissured 2D and 3D porous media. In this study, we emphasize morphological characterization, and we analyze hydrodynamic behavior through the concept of upscaling ("second upscaling"). Concerning the morphology of fissured porous media, several axes are explored : random media, composite random Boolean media with statistical properties, and morphogenetic models. Hydrodynamic upscaling is developed using the macro-permeability concept. This upscaling method is based on either Darcy's linear law, or on a linear/quadratic combination of Darcy's and Ward-Forchheimer's quadratic law (inertial effects). First, the study focuses on Darcy's linear head loss law, and Darcian effective permeabilities are calculated numerically in terms of volume fractions of fissures and "fissure/matrix" permeability contrasts. The results are analysed and compared with analytical results and bounds. A special study of percolation and quasi-percolation effects, for high contrasts, leads to defined three critical fractions. These critical fractions are "connected" to percolation thresholds. Secondly, in order to consider inertial effect in fissures, the study is extended to a local law with a quadratic velocity term (Darcy/Ward-Forchheimer). Then, an equivalent nonlinear macroscopic permeability is defined and analysed using a generalized inertial model (linear/power). Finally, the large scale hydraulic anisotropy of fissured medium is studied, in terms of directional permeabilities, using an "immersion" numerical method.

Predictive power of classification models can be evaluated by various measures. The most popular measures in data mining (DM) are Gini coefficient, Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic and lift. These measures are each based on a completely different way of calculation. If an analyst is used to one of these measures it can be difficult for him to asses the predictive power of a model evaluated by another measure. The aim of this thesis is to develop a method how to convert one performance measure into another. Even though this thesis focuses mainly on the above-mentioned measures, it deals also with other measures like sensitivity, specificity, total accuracy and area under ROC curve. During development of DM models you may need to work with a sample that is stratified by values of the target variable Y instead of working with the whole population containing millions of observations. If you evaluate a model developed on a stratified data you may need to convert these measures to the whole population. This thesis describes a way, how to carry out this conversion. A software application (CPM) enabling all these conversions makes part of this thesis. With this application you can not only convert one performance measure to another, but you can also convert measures calculated on a stratified sample to the whole population. Besides the above mentioned performance measures (sensitivity, specificity, total accuracy, Gini coefficient, Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic), CPM will also generate confusion matrix and performance charts (lift chart, gains chart, ROC chart and KS chart). This thesis comprises the user manual to this application as well as the web address where the application can be downloaded. The theory described in this thesis was verified on the real data.

O carcinoma basocelular (CBC) é tumor constituído por diferentes tipos histológicos, que demonstram diverso potencial de agressividade. Sabe-se que a correlação entre os tipos histológicos de CBC encontrados no material de biópsia pré-operatória e no material da peça cirúrgica excisional não é total. Na literatura esta correlação varia de 42,7 a 80,0% quando analisados os tipos histológicos predominantes (THP). No presente estudo foi feita análise retrospectiva de 70 casos de CBC primário submetidos a biópsia préoperatória e cirurgia excisional. A amostra foi analisada estatisticamente quanto ao gênero e idade dos doentes e localização anatômica dos CBC, demonstrando ser comparável aos demais estudos da literatura. Também foram avaliados o tamanho médio tumoral e o tipo de reconstrução utilizado. A média do maior eixo dos CBC foi de 20 mm e 54% dos casos necessitaram reconstrução complexa, como retalhos e enxertos, mostrando ser amostra representativa de tumores de médio a grande porte. A avaliação histológica foi feita de modo padronizado, determinando tanto o THP quanto os tipos histológicos acessórios (THA) encontrados no material das biópsias pré-operatórias e nas peças cirúrgicas excisionais. Houve 78,3% de correlação entre THP da biópsia e peça cirúrgica, 87,0% de correlação entre THP e/ou THA da biópsia e THP da peça cirúrgica e 92,7% de correlação entre tipos agressivos ou não agressivos. Conclui-se que a biópsia préoperatória é útil para predizer o THP de CBC da peça cirúrgica excisional na maioria dos casos. No entanto, é importante ressaltar que, quando descrito apenas o THP encontrado na biópsia, ocorre 21,7% de falha no diagnóstico. Quando descritos THP e THA encontrados na biópsia a falha diagnóstica cai para 13%. Quando a intenção da biópsia for a determinação da presença de tipos de CBC agressivos ou não, a falha no diagnóstico é de apenas 7,3% / Basal cell carcinoma (BCC) is a tumor presenting many histological types, each one possessing a specific aggressivity potential. It\'s known that correlation between histological types found in preoperative biopsy specimens and excisional surgery specimens is not total. When correlation between predominant histological types (PHT) is analyzed, concordance value varies from 42,7 to 80,0% in the literature. In the present study 70 primary BCC submitted to preoperative biopsy and excisional surgery were retrospectively analyzed. The sample was statistically analyzed in terms of patients\' gender and age and anatomical location of the tumour and was found to be similar to other reports in the literature. Average size of tumors and type of surgical reconstruction employed were also evaluated. Average size of the largest tumour axis was 20 mm and 54% of the cases needed complex reconstructions, such as flaps and grafts, demonstrating that the sample was represented by medium to large sized tumors. Histological evaluation was made in a patterned way, determining PHT and accessory histological types (AHT) in both preoperative biopsies and excisional surgery specimens. Results obtained were: 78.3% correlation between biopsy PHT and excisional surgery PHT, 87.0% correlation between biopsy PHT and/or AHT and excisional surgery PHT and 92.7% correlation when BCC were classified as \"aggressive\" or \"non aggressive\" . Conclusion: preoperative biopsy is useful to predict BCC\'s PHT of excisional surgery specimen in most cases. However, it\'s important to note that when biopsy findings are limited to the description of the PHT , there is a 21.7% diagnostic failure. When both PHT and AHT found in biopsy are described, diagnostic failure falls to 13%. When the intention is determining the presence of aggressive or non aggressive types of BCC, diagnostic failure is only 7.3%