The diploma thesis focuses on description and analysis of the global crisis that began in 2007. It also evaluates measures taken by the European Central Bank and the Czech National Bank in response to this crisis. Thesis contains evaluation of used measure. It includes dealing with the crisis by two selected banks in the Czech Republic.

The past few decades have seen a veritable explosion of investment treaty and other arbitration claims brought against States. Many of these claims have been heard through ICSID arbitration. In comparison to other arbitration frameworks, the ICSID regime has its own self-contained rules for enforcement. Thus, given the significant increase in arbitration claims against States, on the one hand, and States’ not too seldom invoking of the defence of sovereign immunity, on the other hand, this treatise is timely in addressing various outstanding issues that award-creditors have and will continue to encounter when dealing with defaulting States.   The doctrine of sovereign immunity translates into the conventional wisdom that a State cannot be sued without its consent in foreign courts. This doctrine derives from the practical consequence that the sovereign makes the law, and consequently can break it too. This idea is an extension of primarily the common law doctrine to the international plane, which emerged largely as a result of international comity.[1] This concept is also based upon principles ‘equality’ in terms of ‘equal sovereign status’. Some authors even call it ‘independence’ and ‘dignity’ etc., In this respect, the ICJ has also held that it was equality, that is the basis, i.e. justification for the general rule of immunity.   The theory of immunity has gradually shifted from absolute to restrictive immunity, making it significantly easier for award-creditors to enforce an arbitral award. However, the barrier vis-à-vis immunity from execution makes the last link in ITA vulnerable. This evolution has made substantially an easier task for award-creditors in ITA and ISDS holding an arbitration award against a sovereign State. In view of this relatively at ease syndrome that award-creditors now possess, the immunity protections granted to State and its assets will be accessed albeit the proportionality test of acta jure imperii (i.e. sovereign or government purpose) &amp; acta jure gestionis (i.e. commercial or mixed purpose) and the measurement standard applied to such tests is UNSCI 2004, which are now largely constituting States customary international law.   Ultimately, to the author’s opinion, the value of international arbitration (‘ITA and ISDS’) as a means and ends of solving disputes is dependent upon the extent to which arbitral awards are honoured and enforced. In this light, the author can vociferously say that sovereign immunity remains a significant impediment against award-creditors seeking to enforce arbitral awards against unwilling States. The barrier is not one that will fade away. Thus, outstanding award-creditors could be advised to exercise some pressure through alternate and viable forms of enforcement measures. Therefore, the States should not stand-alone to shield their commercial assets from enforcement, attachment and execution, especially for de minimis sovereign purposes.[2]  [1] R Doak Bishop (ed), Enforcement of Arbitral Awards against Sovereigns (JurisNet, LLC Publ 2009). [2] R Doak Bishop (ed), Enforcement of Arbitral Awards against Sovereigns (JurisNet, LLC Publ 2009). / <p>My thesis opposition was done through virtual presentation in Zoom. </p>

The past few decades have seen a veritable explosion of investment treaty and other arbitration claims brought against States. Many of these claims have been heard through ICSID arbitration. In comparison to other arbitration frameworks, the ICSID regime has its own self-contained rules for enforcement. Thus, given the significant increase in arbitration claims against States, on the one hand, and States’ not too seldom invoking of the defence of sovereign immunity, on the other hand, this treatise is timely in addressing various outstanding issues that award-creditors have and will continue to encounter when dealing with defaulting States.   The doctrine of sovereign immunity translates into the conventional wisdom that a State cannot be sued without its consent in foreign courts. This doctrine derives from the practical consequence that the sovereign makes the law, and consequently can break it too. This idea is an extension of primarily the common law doctrine to the international plane, which emerged largely as a result of international comity.[1] This concept is also based upon principles ‘equality’ in terms of ‘equal sovereign status’. Some authors even call it ‘independence’ and ‘dignity’ etc., In this respect, the ICJ has also held that it was equality, that is the basis, i.e. justification for the general rule of immunity.   The theory of immunity has gradually shifted from absolute to restrictive immunity, making it significantly easier for award-creditors to enforce an arbitral award. However, the barrier vis-à-vis immunity from execution makes the last link in ITA vulnerable. This evolution has made substantially an easier task for award-creditors in ITA and ISDS holding an arbitration award against a sovereign State. In view of this relatively at ease syndrome that award-creditors now possess, the immunity protections granted to State and its assets will be accessed albeit the proportionality test of acta jure imperii (i.e. sovereign or government purpose) &amp; acta jure gestionis (i.e. commercial or mixed purpose) and the measurement standard applied to such tests is UNSCI 2004, which are now largely constituting States customary international law.   Ultimately, to the author’s opinion, the value of international arbitration (‘ITA and ISDS’) as a means and ends of solving disputes is dependent upon the extent to which arbitral awards are honoured and enforced. In this light, the author can vociferously say that sovereign immunity remains a significant impediment against award-creditors seeking to enforce arbitral awards against unwilling States. The barrier is not one that will fade away. Thus, outstanding award-creditors could be advised to exercise some pressure through alternate and viable forms of enforcement measures. Therefore, the States should not stand-alone to shield their commercial assets from enforcement, attachment and execution, especially for de minimis sovereign purposes.[2] [1] R Doak Bishop (ed), Enforcement of Arbitral Awards against Sovereigns (JurisNet, LLC Publ 2009). [2] Bishop (n 1).

Frequent incidences of bank failures in Nigeria resulting in enormous losses of investments and jobs have raised questions about the level of banks' compliance with the code of corporate governance. This single exploratory case study shifted attention from the banks to the regulators of banks in Nigeria, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), to find out the problems they may be encountering in getting the banks to be fully compliant. Purposeful sampling was used to select 25 senior participants who were directly involved with the monitoring of banks from CBN. The agency theory served as the conceptual framework. The sources of data were semistructured interviews and focus group interviews. The use of member checking and triangulation improved the credibility of the data. Thematic analysis was used in data analysis. Findings showed that the CBN might have identified the shortcomings in their supervision processes and have put measures in place to ensure full compliance. Some of the measures included recruitment of skilled IT personnel to conduct monthly e-examinations of the books of banks, application of steep penalties for noncompliance, the reduction of percentage holding by investors, and continuous training of the staff. Full implementation and continuous evaluation of these measures should make the issue of bank distresses and the attendant loss of depositors' funds and means of livelihood outdated. This will result in positive social change by increasing public confidence in the banks resulting in a growth in the economic activities, more job creation, and greater wealth creation for shareholders.

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Over the last couple of years, Machine Learning has seen a very high increase in usage. Many previously manual tasks are becoming automated and it stands to reason that this development will continue in an incredible pace. This paper builds on the work in Topic Classification and attempts to provide a baseline on how to analyse the Swedish Central Bank Minutes and gather information using both Latent Dirichlet Allocation and a simple Neural Networks. Topic Classification is done on Monetary Policy Minutes from 2004 to 2018 to find how the distributions of topics change over time. The results are compared to empirical evidence that would confirm trends. Finally a business perspective of the work is analysed to reveal what the benefits of implementing this type of technique could be. The results of these methods are compared and they differ. Specifically the Neural Network shows larger changes in topic distributions than the Latent Dirichlet Allocation. The neural network also proved to yield more trends that correlated with other observations such as the start of bond purchasing by the Swedish Central Bank. Thus, our results indicate that a Neural Network would perform better than the Latent Dirichlet Allocation when analyzing Swedish Monetary Policy Minutes. / Under de senaste åren har artificiell intelligens och maskininlärning fått mycket uppmärksamhet och växt otroligt. Tidigare manuella arbeten blir nu automatiserade och mycket tyder på att utvecklingen kommer att fortsätta i en hög takt. Detta arbete bygger vidare på arbeten inom topic modeling (ämnesklassifikation) och applicera detta i ett tidigare outforskat område, riksbanksprotokoll. Latent Dirichlet Allocation och Neural Network används för att undersöka huruvida fördelningen av diskussionspunkter (topics) förändras över tid. Slutligen presenteras en teoretisk diskussion av det potentiella affärsvärdet i att implementera en liknande metod. Resultaten för de olika modellerna uppvisar stora skillnader över tid. Medan Latent Dirichlet Allocation inte finner några större trender i diskussionspunkter visar Neural Network på större förändringar över tid. De senare stämmer dessutom väl överens med andra observationer såsom påbörjandet av obligationsköp. Därav indikerar resultaten att Neural Network är en mer lämplig metod för analys av riksbankens mötesprotokoll.

The emergence of stablecoins and their current implementations share many similarities to the American free banking era. This was an era with economically inefficient money and payment systems, where banks issued private money that were fully redeemable in theory but not always in practice. As of today, parts of the monetary and payment systems can also be considered inefficient, and a digital currency such as a stablecoin could provide significant improvements in areas such as cross-border payments, financial inclusion, as well as contribute to a more robust monetary system.  This thesis aims to help contribute insights into how the future payment systems may look like, with a specific focus on stablecoins and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). The emergence of the two technologies are closely interlinked, and are currently in an early state of coexistence. This qualitative study investigates the sentiment regarding the future development of stablecoins and their possible continued coexistence with CBDCs. Semi-structured interviews were held with participants from three categories of the Swedish corporate landscape; cryptocurrency innovators and investors, state representatives, and corporate representatives. The main conclusions were was that in the short term, regulations will be a key enabler for continued stablecoin development. There is currently a lack of clarity and guidelines which is making it hard for generally accepted stablecoins to be established. Furthermore, the general consensus is that stablecoins and central bank digital currencies will co-exist in the future monetary system in the long-term, where each technology will have different use cases. / Framväxten av stablecoins och dess nuvarande implementationer delar många likheter med den amerikanska ”free-banking” eran. Detta var en tidsepok med ekonomiskt ineffektiva pengar och betalsystem, där banker emitterade pengar som skulle vara fullt inlösningsbara teorin, men inte alltid i praktiken. Även idag kan delar av penga- och betalsystemen anses vara ineffektiva, och en digital valuta såsom en stablecoin skulle kunna bidra med betydande förbättringar inom områden såsom utrikesbetalningar, finansiell inkludering, samt bistå i utvecklingen av ett mer robust pengasystem. Denna uppsats ämnar bidra med insikter om hur framtidens betalsystem kan se ut, med ett specifikt fokus på stablecoins och centralbanksvalutor (eng. central bank digital currencies, CBDCs). Framväxten av de två teknologierna är nära relaterade, och för närvarande samexisterar dessa i ett tidigt stadie. Denna kvalitativa studie undersöker sentimentet kring den framtida utvecklingen av stablecoins och dess möjliga fortsatta samexistens med centralbanksvalutor. Semi-strukturerade intervjuer hölls med deltagare från tre kategorier av svenskt näringsliv: innovatörer och investerare inom kryptovalutor, företrädare för staten, samt bolagsrepresentanter. De huvudsakliga slutsatserna var att på kort sikt kommer regleringar vara viktiga för att möjliggöra fortsatt utveckling av stablecoins. I dagsläget saknas det klarhet och riktlinjer vilket gör det svårt för en generellt accepterad stablecoin att utvecklas. Vidare så är den generella uppfattningen att stablecoins och centralbanksvalutor kommer samexistera i framtidens betalsystem, då de båda teknikerna kommer ha olika användningsområden

Even though major advances in economic theory and modelling have in some cases furthered our understanding of how the economy works, the system as a whole has become more complex. If policymakers had perfect knowledge about the actual state of the economy, the various transmission mechanisms as well as the true underlying model, monetary intervention would be greatly simplified. In reality, however, the monetary authorities have to contend with considerable uncertainty in relation to the above-mentioned factors. This said, uncertainty has mostly been neglected in both the theoretical and empirical literature focusing on monetary policy analysis. Nonetheless, findings from a review of theoretical literature that does exist on this topic suggest that optimal central banks act more conservatively when faced with uncertainty. Similarly, empirical findings from the literature also favour conservatism. However, there is some evidence to suggest that this is not always the case. These results suggest that central banks do not always act optimally when faced with uncertainty. The limited number of industrial country cases examined prevents any generalised view from emerging. If anything, the literature findings suggest that central bank behaviour differs across countries. This thesis aims to contribute to the empirical literature by studying the effects of uncertainty on monetary policy in the developing country case of South Africa. In simplest terms, the thesis seeks to establish whether or not the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) responded optimally to uncertainty as suggested by theoretical models thereof. To this end, the thesis employs a theoretical model which resembles a structural rule-based approach. The optimal interest rate rule was derived given a set of structural equations relating to demand, the Phillips curve and the real exchange rate. To incorporate uncertainty, it is assumed that the coefficients are dependent on the variances of the exogenous variables, namely inflation, the output gap and the exchange rate. The uncertainty adjusted model allows us to investigate whether monetary policy is more aggressive or passive when uncertainty about the relevant exogenous variable increases. Inflation, output gap and exchange rate uncertainty estimates were derived through GARCH-model specifications related to the structural equations as defined in the theoretical model. The investigation considered both indirect and direct uncertainty effects with a sample period stretching from 1990 to 2011. The findings reported in this thesis provide strong evidence in support of the notion that uncertainty plays a significant role within the South African monetary policy landscape and contributes towards explaining the SARB’s actions. Furthermore, the results suggest that the SARB did in fact act optimally in responding more conservatively to target variable fluctuations on average. Also, the findings could potentially strengthen the case for inflation targeting as a monetary policy regime, as the results indicate a marked decline in the effects of uncertainty under inflation targeting than before. / Economics / D. Com. (Economics)

Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2011. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The effectiveness of monetary policy depends importantly on the expectations of the private sector, as it is largely through this channel of the transmission mechanism that policy changes are transmitted to long-term interest rates. This has increased the emphasis on the role of central bank communication as a monetary policy tool. Successful communication is essential both to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy and to build support for the institutional framework within which monetary policy is implemented. While the large and growing literature on central bank communication over the past decade has delivered strong support for the important role of central bank communication, there is less agreement about what the optimal communication strategy is. Furthermore, research has been limited mainly to studies of communication between central banks and the financial markets. In an evaluation of progress in the literature, Blinder et al. (2008) highlight the need to examine the interaction between central banks and the rest of the private sector (the general public) as well. The objective of this PhD dissertation is to evaluate the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB’s) use of communication as a monetary policy tool. Special focus is given to communication with the inattentive general public, who set prices in the labour market and the market for goods and services. Different aspects of the SARB’s communication were studied, including the consistency of the South African Reserve Bank’s communication, the transmission of this communication via the media to the general public, and the process by which the general public gathers and processes the information on inflation. An evaluation of the SARB’s communications (its original messages) provided some evidence that the SARB has succeeded in communicating consistently over the inflation targeting period. This was followed by an assessment of the role of the media in transmitting the original communications to the general public. The results suggest that South African media reports generally show a lack of critical assessment of monetary policy decisions and that the inter-meeting communication by the SARB is ineffective at influencing these. An important challenge is for the SARB to consider how it can participate more actively in the economic discussion at this level and how it can build productive strategic relationships with the media. The final section of this dissertation explores the process by which the general public forms its inflation expectations, relying on epidemiological models to describe the spread of inflation information and to estimate the speed at which the general public, in aggregate, updates their inflation expectations. This estimate of the speed of adjustment will be valuable to future research that aims to build a Phillips curve in a new way for South Africa. A well-modelled Phillips curve will both improve the monitoring of the impact of monetary policy and inform future policy design and implementation. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die doeltreffendheid van die monetêre beleid is beduidend afhanklik van die verwagtinge in die privaat sektor, aangesien beleid hoofsaaklik deur hierdie kanaal langtermyn rentekoerse beïnvloed. Hierdie bewustheid het die klem op die rol van sentrale bank kommunikasie as ‘n monetêre instrument versterk. Suksesvolle kommunikasie is noodsaaklik om beide die effektiwiteit van monetêre beleid te verseker sowel as om ondersteuning vir die institusionele raamwerk waarbinne die monetêre beleid geïmplimenteer word, te bou. Hoewel daar ‘n groot en groeiende literatuur is wat die belangrikheid van sentrale bank kommunikasie oor die afgelope dekade beklemtoon, is daar nie eenstemmigheid oor wat die optimale kommunikasie strategie behels nie. Daarbenewens is meeste studies beperk tot die kommunikasie tussen monetêre owerhede en die finansiële sektor. In ‘n evaluering van die literatuur het Blinder et al. (2008) die noodsaaklikheid beklemtoon om die wisselwerking tussen monetêre owerhede en die res van die privaat sektor (die publiek) te bestudeer. Die doel van hierdie proefskrif is om die Suid-Afrikaanse Reserwebank (SARB) se gebruik van hierdie kommunikasie instrument te evalueer. Spesiale aandag word geskenk aan kommunikasie met die onoplettende publiek wat pryse bepaal in die arbeidsmark en markte vir goedere en dienste. Verskillende aspekte van die SARB se kommunikasie strategie word bestudeer, insluitende die konsekwentheid van kommunikasie, die oordrag van hierdie kommunikasie via die media aan die publiek, asook die proses waarmee die publiek informasie rakende inflasie versamel en verwerk. ‘n Evaluering van die SARB se kommunikasie (die oorspronklike boodskappe) lewer bewys dat die SARB daarin geslaag het om konsekwent te kommunikeer tydens die inflasie teikeningsperiode. Dit word gevolg deur ‘n evaluering van die rol van die media om oorspronklike informasie suskesvol aan die publiek oor te dra. Die resultate dui daarop dat berigte in die Suid Afrikaanse media oor die algemeen aan kritiese evaluering van die monet.re beleidsbesluite ontbreek en die SARB se kommunikasie tussen monetêre beleidsvergaderings is ook oneffektief gevind. ‘n Belangrike uitdaging vir die SARB is dus om te bepaal hoe dit op hierdie vlak tot die ekonomiese debat kan toetree en hoe dit produktiewe strategiese verhoudings met die media kan bou. Die laaste afdeling van die proefskrif bestudeer die proses waarvolgens die publiek hul inflasieverwagtinge formuleer deur gebruik te maak van epidemiologiese modelle wat die verspreiding van inflasie verwagtinge, asook die spoed waarteen die publiek oor die algemeen hul inflasieverwagtinge opdateer, beskryf. Die snelheid waarmee die publiek hul verwagtinge opdateer behoort veral van waarde te wees vir toekomstige studies wat poog om ‘n Phillips kurwe met ‘n nuwe aanslag vir Suid Afrika te skort. ‘n Goed geformuleerde Phillips kurwe sal monitering van monetêre beleide se impak verbeter, en sal ook as ‘n goeie riglyn vir toekomstige beleidsontwerp en -implimentering dien.

在這篇文章裡我們採用了White所提出的真實檢驗法(Reality Check)來解決探勘資料偏誤(Data-snooping bias)的問題，結果顯示從1980年到2008年間，技術分析法則的確可以幫助投資人在日圓兌美元及英鎊兌美元這兩個外匯市場獲利；我們也發現在外匯市場最普遍的技術分析方式─移動平均法(moving average)表現不如其他的技術分析法則，而通道突破法(channel break-out)的表現則明顯優於其他技術分析法則。 除了檢驗技術分析方法的獲利性之外，我們也嘗試著探討技術分析方法的獲利性與央行干預之間的關係，追隨Szacmary與Mathur在1997年所發表的論文，我們把技術分析法則擴充為在真實檢驗法中所使用到的所有法則，並且盡可能加長分析的期間。結果顯示技術分析法則的獲利與央行干預並不存在任何特定的關係。 / In this paper we construct a huge universe of simple trading rules and apply White’s Reality Check to mitigate data-snooping bias then detect the profitability of technical trading rules. We find that technical analysis is useful no matter in the full sample time or each subsample period. The channel break-out method outperforms the other methods in our finding while the profitability of the most commonly used moving average method is worse than the others. Furthermore, we inspect the relationships between the returns of technical trading rules and central bank intervention. The results suggest that there’s no evident relationship between the return series of trading rules and central bank intervention and are not consistent with the view of our following previous study.