O desafio para a área de monitoramento de processos, em indústrias químicas, ainda é a etapa de detecção, com a necessidade de desenvolvimento de sistemas confiáveis. Pode-se resumir que um sistema é confiável, ao ser capaz de detectar as situações anormais, de modo precoce, e, ao mesmo tempo, de minimizar a geração de alarmes falsos. Ao se ter um sistema confiável, pode-se empregá-lo para auxiliar o operador, de fábricas, no processo de tomada de decisões. O objetivo deste estudo é apresentar uma metodologia, baseada na técnica, modelo oculto de Markov (HMM, acrônimo de ?Hidden Markov Model?), para se detectar situações anormais em caldeiras de recuperação química. As aplicações de maior sucesso de HMM são na área de reconhecimento de fala. Pode-se citar como aspectos positivos: o raciocínio probabilístico, a modelagem explícita, e a identificação a partir de dados históricos. Fez-se duas aplicações. O primeiro estudo de caso é no ?benchmark? de um sistema de evaporação múltiplo efeito de uma fábrica de produção de açúcar. Identificou-se um HMM, característico de operação normal, para se detectar cinco situações anormais no atuador responsável por regular o fluxo de xarope de açúcar para o primeiro evaporador. A detecção, para as três situações abruptas, é imediata, uma vez que o HMM foi capaz de detectar alterações, abruptas, no sinal da variável monitorada. Em relação às duas situações incipientes, foi possível detectá-las ainda em estágio inicial; ao ser o valor de f (vetor responsável por representar a intensidade de um evento anormal, com o tempo), no instante da detecção, próximo a zero, igual a 2,8% e 2,1%, respectivamente. O segundo estudo de caso é em uma caldeira de recuperação química, de uma fábrica de produção de celulose, no Brasil. O objetivo é monitorar o acúmulo de depósitos de cinzas sobre os equipamentos da sessão de transferência de calor convectivo, através de medições de perda de carga. Este é um dos principais desafios para se aumentar a eficiência operacional deste equipamento. Após a identificação de um HMM característico de perda de carga alta, pôde-se verificar a sua capacidade de informar o estado atual e, por consequência, a tendência do sistema, de modo similar à um preditor. Pôde-se demonstrar também a utilidade de se definir limites de controle, com o objetivo de se ter a informação sobre a distância entre o estado atual e os níveis de alarme de perda de carga. / The greatest challenge faced by the area of process monitoring in chemical industries still resides in the fault detection task, which aims at developing reliable systems. One may say that a system is reliable if it is able to perform early fault detection and, at the same time, to reduce the generation of false alarms. Once there is a reliable system available, it can be employed to help operators, in factories, in the decisionmaking process. The aim of this study is presenting a methodology, based on the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) technique, suggesting its use in the detection of abnormal situations in chemical recovery boilers. The most successful applications of HMM are in the area of speech recognition. Some of its advantages are: probabilistic reasoning, explicit modeling and the identification based on process history data. This study discusses two applications. The first one is on a benchmark of a multiple evaporation system in a sugar factory. A HMM representative of the normal operation was identified, in order to detect five abnormal situations at the actuator responsible for controlling the syrup flow to the first evaporator. The detection result for the three abrupt situations was immediate, since the HMM was capable of detecting the statistical changes on the signal of the monitored variable as soon as they occurred. Regarding to the two incipient situations, the detection was done at an early stage. For both events, the value of vector f (responsible for representing the strength of an abnormal event over time), at the time it occurred, was near zero, equal to 2.8 and 2.1%, respectively. The second case study deals with the application of HMM in a chemical recovery boiler, belonging to a cellulose mill, in Brazil. The aim is monitoring the accumulation of ash deposits over the equipments of the convective heat transfer section, through pressure drop measures. This is one of the main challenges to be overcome nowadays, bearing in mind the interest that exists in increasing the operational efficiency of this equipment. Initially, a HMM for high values of pressure drop was identified. With this model, it was possible to check its capacity to inform the current state, and consequently, the tendency of the system (similarly as a predictor). It was also possible to show the utility of defining control limits, in order to inform the operator the relative distance between the current state of the system and the alarm levels of pressure drop.

O conhecimento das tendências temporais da qualidade das águas é importante no diagnóstico ambiental de bacias hidrográficas, permitindo avaliar como os corpos d’água vem respondendo ao longo dos anos, em termos qualitativos, à crescente intervenção antrópica. O objetivo deste trabalho é caracterizar a qualidade das águas dos rios das bacias do Piracicaba, Mogi-Guaçu, Turvo Grande, Peixe, Aguapeí, São José dos Dourados e Alto Paranapanema utilizando postos monitorados pela CETESB (Companhia de Tecnologia de Saneamento Ambiental), no período entre 1979 e 2001. Os parâmetros biogeoquímicos avaliados quanto a sua tendência temporal e magnitude foram: oxigênio dissolvido (OD), demanda bioquímica de oxigênio (DBO), nitrogênio total, nitrato, fósforo total, cloreto, amônio e coliformes fecais. A análise de tendência temporal exige uma metodologia específica, uma vez que as séries temporais obtidas não seguem uma distribuição normal, as amostragens são realizadas irregularmente, os dados apresentam sazonalidade e são dependentes da vazão dos rios. Essa metodologia é dividida em análise gráfica e aplicação de testes de tendência, onde inicialmente realiza-se uma análise exploratória dos dados, seguida da confirmação através de testes estatísticos. Os resultados mostraram que de uma maneira geral existe uma degradação da qualidade das águas na maior parte das bacias, representado pelas tendências positivas nos parâmetros (DBO, nitrogênios, fósforo total, cloreto e coliformes fecais) e negativa no parâmetro (OD). Dentre as bacias hidrográficas analisadas a bacia do rio Piracicaba é a mais severamente afetada com variações mais acentuadas na magnitude representada pelo coeficiente de regressão, seguida pelas bacias dos rios Mogi-Guaçu, Turvo Grande, Peixe e Aguapeí, sendo que por outro lado, as bacias do Alto Paranapanema e São José dos Dourados são as menos afetadas. / The knowledge of time trends of water quality is important for the environmental diagnosis of hydrographic basins, allowing the evaluation of how water bodies are responding through the years, in qualitative terms, to the growing antropogenic interventions (actions). The aim of this work is to characterize the water quality of rivers of the Piracicaba, Mogi-Guaçu, Turvo Grande, Peixe, Aguapeí, São José dos Dourados and Alto Paranapanema basins using stations monitored by CETESB (Companhia de Tecnologia de Saneamento Ambiental), in the period from 1979 to 2001. The biogeochemical parameters evaluated concerning its time trend and magnitude were: dissolved oxygen (DO), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), total nitrogen, nitrate, total phosphorus, chloride, ammonia and fecal coliforms. Time trend analysis demands a specific methodology, since the time series obtained are not normally distributed, the sampling are performed irregularly, it can present seasonal periodicities and dependence on the rivers discharges. This methodology is divided in graphical analysis and application of trend tests, where initially an exploratory analysis of data is performed, followed by confirmation through statistical tests. The results showed that in a general there exists degradation of the water quality in most of the basins, represented by the positive trends of the parameters (BOD, nitrogens, total phosphorus, clorate and fecal coliforms) and negative trend of the parameter (DO). Among the analysed hydrographic basins, the Piracicaba river basin is the most severely affected with higher variations in the magnitude represented by the regression coeficient, followed by the basins of the Mogi-Guaçu, Turvo Grande, Peixe and Aguapeí rivers. On the other hand, the Alto Paranapanema and São José dos Dourados basins are the least affected.

In order to understand the dynamics of desertification after the 1980s droughts, the trends and changes of photosynthetically active fraction of the vegetation cover of the semi-arid region of West Africa have been analyzed across three ecoclimatic entities. This study focuses on six countries (Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina-Faso, Niger and Benin) that reflect quite well the human and environmental context of semi-arid regions. The main objective of this thesis is to check in the before-mentioned biophysical and human context, if the state of the vegetation improves because of more favourable rainfall conditions, or if, conversely, the long environmental deterioration during recent decades has a healthy dose of irreversibility for several years. The process of investigation proceeds in three stages defined by geographical scales and a geoclimatic gradient. At the regional level, we compared vegetation productivity data from 1982-1999 time series of NOAA-AVHRR NDVI data to rainfall data. We analyzed data from 315 rain gauges distributed across five countries (Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina-Faso and Niger) with annual average isohyets ranging from 100 to 900 mm. For trends analysis, we used the ratio of the integrated vegetation index (iNDVI) during the crop-growth period (June to October) to the May to October sum of rainfall (RR). This ratio (iNDVI/RR), a proxy of the Rain Use Efficiency, is widely used by ecologists as an indicator for detecting desertification processes. Overall, our results show a significant increase of the net primary production as a response of post-drought rainfall increase. However, the trends of iNDVI/RR ratio suggest that most of the studied stations (54%) in sahelian and sahelo-sudanese belts were stable and 31.4% showed strong to very strong negative change in iNDVI/RR ratio, while 13.3% of the stations showed a moderate decrease and only 1.3% showed a positive trend. At the country level, similar trends were recorded throughout 128 stations in Burkina Faso located between the 500 mm and 1100 mm isohyets. In fact, more than half the studied stations showed a stability of iNDVI/RR ratio. However, 39.8% of them show a negative trend from low to high, while only 2.4% of them show a slight positive trend. In addition, a comparison with more detailed local case studies confirmed these observed trends. However, the obtained results for wetter stations in the southern part of the country should be taken with precaution, as the relationship between NDVI and rainfall tends to weaken when annual rainfall is higher than 1000 mm. Overall, the negative trends highlight a gradual decline in plant productivity. These results recorded in 44.7% of the analyzed stations may reflect ongoing desertification processes in the sahelian and sahelo-sudanian zones over the past two decades. At the local level, a structural characterization of woody units in three bioclimatic regions of the sudanian zone (900 mm 1200 mm) in the north of Benin was conducted to assess their degradation status. We recorded the structural characteristics of stands (basal area, density), species diversity as well as disturbances type and intensity. Multivariate analysis revealed a gradient of productivity between the three regions: there was a high diversity of woody stands in the south-sudanian sector, while the north-sudanian and sudano-sahelian sectors were dominated by savannas and shrub, which had low productivity. The productivity gradient is influenced by a disturbance gradient suggesting that the decline in productivity is stronger from south-sudanian to the sudano-sahelian region. In addition, the spatial component of the observable changes in vegetation cover has been mapped by remote sensing in a restricted area of the sudanian zone in northern Benin with SPOT-XS data over the period 1986-2005. Over the past two decades, 19.6% of the woody stands have completely disappeared; 12.9% of this extinction of woody stands was due to deforestation, and 13.9 % due to degradation processes. In contrast to these trends, 21.8% of the study area were stable, while less than a third (31.7%) of the area were experiencing woody recovery (reforestation). The analysis also reveals significant disparities in the rates of change of the identified land use class units. These variations are more pronounced for the woody units and agricultural land than in villages. These results suggest that land cover degradation throughout the study area is primarily due to anthropogenic factors (livestock and agricultural expansion, logging, breeding). In fact, this area is a preferred destination for agricultural migrants fleeing the unpredictable climatic conditions of the drier semi-arid areas. Overall, our results highlight the rapid decline of vegetation resources, challenging assumptions that the impact of ongoing desertification processes is mixed, outside of the arid and semi-arid regions of West Africa. The developed framework is easily reproducible and allows the implementation of a reliable diagnosis on the state of the vegetation cover from accessible and inexpensive data. Its implementation should facilitate the development of managerial techniques for better assistance to the poor, especially vulnerable to the gradual degradation of their environment.

Large and ever-increasing numbers of chemicals, including large quantities of a broad spectrum of organic compounds are used in modern society. More than 30 000 of the more than 100 000 chemical substances registered in the EU are estimated to be daily used, of which many will be discharged into the waste-streams handled by municipal sewage treatment plants (STPs). The main objective of the work underlying this thesis was to improve understanding of the relationships between the characteristics of sewage contaminants and their sewage treatment efficiency. Further objectives were to examine the relationships between socio-economic uses of chemicals and sludge quality, and the effects of regulatory actions on sludge quality. The quality of the sewage sludge and the levels and distribution patterns of the sludge contaminants, both within and between the STPs, seem to remain quite constant over time. The overall findings indicate that the levels of contaminants in sewage sludge seem to be largely independent of the location, size and treatment techniques applied at the STPs, and generally, of the types of human activity connected to them. The total and relative concentrations of the sludge contaminants were found to be fairly constant on a dry weight basis, with some exceptions, indicating that the pollutants originate from broad usage and diffuse dispersion rather than (industrial) point sources. The proportion of cyclic methylsiloxanes recovered in sludge seems to strongly depend on their vapour pressure, which decreases with the number of siloxane units. The higher water solubility and biodegradability of organophosphorus flame retardants and plasticizers than polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) were also reflected in lower percentages (relative to their national use) found in sludge. Significant time-trends in levels of a-third of the sludge contaminants included in the annual national measurement program were detected over a period of seven years. The levels of compounds displaying significant time-trends generally decreased following declines in the quantities used nationally. However, a quarter of these compounds showed increasing trends, of which the linear methylsiloxanes followed the same trend as used quantities. The decaBDE was also found to be increasing in sludge, probably as a result of the phase-out of pentaBDE and octaBDE. The results indicate that the STP removal efficiency of anthropogenic substances, in Sweden, is generally good and that STPs, at least those in cold climates, do not efficiently remove certain polar contaminants. A non-targeted screening (by use of environmetrics and GCxGC-TOFMS) was performed and found to fulfil the objective to assess the STP removal efficiency, with emphasis to systematically analyse which compound classes that are not efficiently removed using the current STP technology. Many polar aromatic compounds were identified to be poorly removed. The acquired data on levels, profiles and variations in sludge contaminants (sludge quality) extend both the available information and understanding of the degree and nature of sludge contamination, which should help attempts to track changes in its contaminants and revisions, if necessary, of guideline values. This thesis also contributes to improve the knowledge base for the development of future STP technologies, and that archived sewage sludge can be used in retrospective analysis of new and emerging pollutants.

During the last three decades, a number of studies based on national environmental monitoring data have found increased concentrations of total organic carbon (TOC) in surface waters in much of the northern hemisphere including Sweden. There are many hypothesis of what has been the main cause of this trend, including changes in land use, decreased atmospheric deposition of acidifying compounds and climate change. Different hypothesis may have different implications for quantifying pre-industrial levels and for future predictions of TOC concentrations, which in turn will have different implications for water classification according to the European Water Framework Directive, water management and drinking water treatment. To analyse the long term effects of industrialisation and climate change on TOC in surface waters there is a need for long term time series of data. Since environmental monitoring data in Sweden only extends back to the mid-1980s, other techniques must be used in order to reconstruct data. In this study, sediment cores from 17 lakes along a climatic and deposition gradient in Sweden were collected and analysed with visible near infrared spectroscopy (VNIRS), an analytical technique that makes it possible to reconstruct historic surface water concentrations of TOC to pre-industrial conditions. A previous study with VNIRS showed that TOC concentrations declined in response to sulfate deposition until peak sulfur deposition in 1980, and thereafter increased as a result of sharp reductions of sulfate emissions. It was noted that the rate of increase of TOC after 1980 was faster than the rate of decrease due to sulfate deposition before 1980. The purpose of this study was therefore to explore the hypothesis that increasing TOC concentrations have not only been due to recovery from acidification, but also due to changes in climate. It was possible to analyse the long term effects of industrialisation and climate change on surface water TOC by analysing the reconstructed TOC data together with climate data from the beginning of the 1900s, modelled data of atmospheric sulfate deposition and environmental monitoring data, with uni- and multivariate analysis methods. It was found that the recent increase in TOC concentrations could be explained by both decreases in acidifying atmospheric deposition and increased precipitation, while temperature may have a decreasing effect on TOC. It was also found that the rate of increase of TOC-concentrations has been faster in the colder northern parts of Sweden and slower in the warmer south. The results imply that TOC concentrations will continue to rise to unpreceded levels and should be of concern for drinking water treatment plants that will need to adapt their treatment processes in the future. / Under de senaste tre årtiondena har ett flertal studier baserade på data från nationella miljöövervakningsprogram rapporterat ökande koncentrationer av organiskt kol (TOC) i ytvatten på norra halvklotet inklusive Sverige. Det finns många hypoteser om vad som ligger bakom trenden, till exempel förändringar i markanvändning, minskad atmosfärisk deposition av försurande ämnen och klimatförändringar. Olika förklaringar till vad som ligger bakom den ökande trenden ger konsekvenser vid kvantifiering av förindustriella nivåer och för förutsägelser om framtida koncentrationer, vilket i sin tur ger konsekvenser för vattenklassificering enligt Ramvattendirektivet, vattenförvaltning och dricksvattenberedning. För att kunna analysera de långsiktiga effekterna av industrialisering och klimatförändringar på TOC i ytvatten behövs långa tidsserier av data. Då den svenska miljöövervakningen endast sträcker sig tillbaka till mitten av 1980-talet måste andra tekniker användas för att rekonstruera data. I den här studien har sedimentproppar från 17 sjöar längs en klimat- och depositionsgradient analyserats med visible near infrared spektroskopi (VNIRS), en analysteknik som gör det möjligt att rekonstruera TOC-koncentrationer i ytvatten till förindustriell tid. En tidigare studie med VNIRS visade att TOC-koncentrationer sjönk till följd av försurande nedfall fram till 1980 då nedfallet kraftigt minskade, varefter koncentrationer av TOC började öka. Det noterades i studien att ökningen av TOC efter 1980 varit snabbare än vad minskningen var före 1980 på grund av försurande nedfall. Syftet med den här studien var därför att undersöka hypotesen att den senaste tidens ökning av TOC inte bara berott på minskat nedfall av försurande ämnen, utan även på grund av klimatförändringar. Det var möjligt att undersöka de långsiktiga effekterna av industrialisering och klimatförändringar på TOC i ytvatten genom att analysera rekonstruerad TOC data, klimatdata från början av 1900-talet, modellerad sulfatdepositionsdata och miljöövervakningsdata med uni- och multivariata analysmetoder. Resultaten visade att den senaste tidens ökning av TOC kunde förklaras med både en minskande deposition av försurande ämnen och en ökad nederbörd, medan ökande temperaturer kan ha haft en minskande effekt på TOC. Resultaten visade även att förändringshastigheten av TOC-koncentrationer varit snabbare i de norra, kalla delarna av Sverige och långsammare i de varmare södra. Resultaten indikerar att koncentrationer av TOC kommer att öka till nivåer som aldrig tidigare skådats, vilket är något vattenreningsverk kommer att behöva anpassa sina reningsmetoder till i framtiden.

The Universal Declaration of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms and the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights state that everyone has the right to good health. According to the conventions, the states have obligations to prevent and combat disease, and if necessary, ensure that the conditions for treatment of the disease are appropriate (UDHR 1948, UNCESCR 1966). The broad wording in the conventions on the right to good health includes the right to care of substance use disorders. In the 1960ies the World Health Organization recommended, that people with such disorders should be seen as sick and that the legislation governing such care should be in accordance with special administrative legislations and not criminal legislation. The recommendation indicates WHO:s clear position that persons with substance use disorders primarily should be treated as persons suffering from disease and in need of care, and not primarily as disruptive individuals or criminals who should be disciplined or punished. This applies also to situations when treatment and care cannot be provided on a voluntary basis, but compulsorily. In Swedish context, the most commonly mentioned law in these cases is the social special legislation Law (1988: 870) on care of misusers, special provisions (LVM). Ever since the implementation of LVM in 1982, its legal position as well as application in institutional care has been subject of critical discussions within social work as well as in social science research. Such debate in the Nordic countries has until now mostly been marked by two important limitations. First, most comparisons are restricted to very few countries, e.g. four of the Nordic countries; secondly the notion of involuntary care is often limited to social legislation on compulsory care without taking criminal justice legislation or mental health legislation into account. The present dissertation studies legislations on compulsory commitment to care of persons with substance use problems (CCC), and compares these legislations from a larger number of countries, on global or European levels. This approach makes it possible to explore the great variation in CCC legislation between countries, i.e. type of law (criminal justice, mental health care and social or special legislation),  time limits (maximum duration) as well as levels of ambition, ethical grounds, criteria for admission, and adaption to human and civil rights.  In addition, the comparisons between many countries are used to investigate factors related to different national choices in legislations from country characteristics, e.g. historical and cultural background as well as economic and social conditions, including level and type of welfare distribution. Available datasets from different times permits trend analyses to investigate whether CCC or specific types of such are increasing or decreasing internationally.          Empirical materials: Article I is based on three reports from the WHO on existence of CCC legislation, before the millennium shift, in 90 countries and territories in all populated continents. Articles II and IV are based on own data collection from a survey in 38 European countries. Article III uses a combination of those data and additional information from country reports in scientific and institutional publications in three times of observation during more than 25 years, and including a total of 104 countries. Additional data for Articles I and II are information on various countries' characteristics obtained from different international databases.          Findings based on data from WHO reports at the eve of the millennium show that CCC legislation was very common in the world, since 82 per cent of the 90 countries and territories had such law. Special administrative (“civil”) legislation (mental health or social) was somewhat more prevalent (56 %), but CCC in criminal justice legislation was also frequent and present in half of the countries. The study shows that economically stronger countries in the western world and many of the former communist countries in Eastern Europe, the so-called "first and second worlds" in cold war rhetoric, more often had adapted to the recommendations made by WHO in the 1960ies, with CCC more often regulated in civil legislation. In the so-called "third world" countries, CCC in criminal justice legislation dominated. The new data collection from 38 European countries ten years later confirmed that legislation on CCC is very common, since 74 per cent of the explored countries have some type of legislation. The most common type was now CCC in criminal legislation (45%), although special administrative legislation (mental health or social) was almost equally common (37%). Special administrative legislation on CCC (both acute and rehabilitative), was more common in countries with historic experience of a strong influential temperance movement, and in countries with distribution of health and welfare more directed through the state, while countries with less direct government involvement in distribution of health and welfare and lacking former influence of a strong temperance movement more often had CCC in criminal justice legislation. During all the 25 years period from early 80ies up to 2009, it was more common for countries to have some type of law on CCC than not, although some reduction of CCC legislation is shown, especially during the last decade. But within countries having CCC, more cases are compulsorily committed and for longer time duration. This is related to a global shift from civil CCC to CCC in criminal justice legislation, directly in the opposite direction from what WHO recommended in the 60ies. Changes in CCC legislation are often preceded with national political debate on ethical considerations, and criticisms questioning the efficiency and content of the care provided. Such national debates are frequent with all types of CCC legislation, but ethical considerations seem to be far more common related to special administrative (civil) legislation. National legislations on CCC within Europe should conform to the human and civil rights stipulated in ECHR (1950). There seems, to be some limitations in the procedural rules that should protect persons with misuse or dependence problems from unlawful detentions, regardless type of law. The three types of law differ significantly in terms of criteria for CCC, i.e. the situations in which care may be ensured regardless of consent.        Conclusions: It is more common that societies have legislation on CCC, than not. This applies internationally – in all parts of the world as well as over time, for a period of 25 years, at least. Sweden’s legislative position is not internationally unique; on the contrary, it is quite common. Law on CCC tend to be introduced in times of drug epidemics or when drug-related problems are increasing in a society. Changes in CCC legislation are often preceded by national debates on ethics, content and benefits of such care. These findings here discussed may reflect different concurrent processes. A shift from welfare logic to a moral logic may be understood as more moralization, perhaps due to relative awaking of traditionalism related to religious movements in various parts of the world (Christian, Hindu, Muslim or other). But it may also be understood from more libertarianism that stresses both individual responsibility for one’s welfare and the state´s responsibility to discipline behaviours that inflict negatively on the lives of others. Possibly do these two tendencies work in conjunction to one another. At the same time, however, there is a stronger emphasis on care content within criminal justice CCC, especially in the Anglo-Saxon drug court system. Some shift within Civil CCC is also noticed, i.e. from social to mental health legislation. Thus drug abuse and dependence is increasingly more recognized and managed in the same way as other diseases, i.e. an increased normalization. Since social CCC has been more in focus of research and debates, this may also result in CCC turning into a more hidden praxis, which from ethical perspectives is problematic. The thesis shows that there are examples of focus on humanity and care in all three of the law types, but there are also examples of passive care, sometimes even inhumane and repressive, in all types. Thus, type of law cannot be said to in general correspond to a specific content of care. Although CCC can be delivered in accordance with human and civil rights, there is still a dissatisfying situation concerning the procedural rights that should ensure the misuser his/her rights to freedom from unlawful detention. The possibility to appeal to a higher instance is missing in about 20 percent of European CCC laws, although not differentiating one type of legislation from the others. A clear difference between the three law types concerns criteria that form the basis for who will be provided care according to the laws. This is of major importance for which persons of the needy who will receive care: addicted offenders, out-acting persons or the most vulnerable. The criteria for selecting these relate to the implicit ambitions of CCC – correction, protection, or for support to those in greatest need for care. The question is what ambition a society should have concerning care without consent in case of substance abuse and addiction problems. The trend that CCC according to special administrative legislation is declining and criminal legislation increases in the world should therefore be noticed.     Keywords: Alcohol, drugs, substance misuse, coercive care, compulsory commitment to care, involuntary care, mandatory care, legislation, human and civil rights, comparative analysis, prediction models, and trend analysis / <p>Vid tidpunkten för disputationen var följande delarbeten opublicerade: delarbete 4 inskickat.</p><p>At the time of the doctoral defence the following papers were unpublished: paper 4 submitted.</p>

Time series data are of great importance for monitoring vegetation phenology in the dry sub-humid regions where change in land cover has influence on biomass productivity. However few studies have inquired into examining the impact of rainfall and land cover change on vegetation phenology. This study explores Seasonal Trend Analysis (STA) approach in order to investigate overall greenness, peak of annual greenness and timing of annual greenness in the seasonal NDVI cycle. Phenological pattern for the start of season (SOS) and end of season (EOS) was also examined across different land cover types in four selected locations. A significant increase in overall greenness (amplitude 0) and a significant decrease in other greenness trend maps (amplitude 1 and phase 1) was observed over the study period. Moreover significant positive trends in overall annual rainfall (amplitude 0) was found which follows similar pattern with vegetation trend. Variation in the timing of peak of greenness (phase 1) was seen in the four selected locations, this indicate a change in phenological trend. Additionally, strong relationship was revealed by the result of the pixel-wise regression between NDVI and rainfall. Change in vegetation phenology in the study area is attributed to climatic variability than anthropogenic activities.

Submitted by Gisele Isaura Hannickel (gisele.hannickel@fgv.br) on 2012-04-24T18:53:49Z No. of bitstreams: 1 120423 Master Thesis FGV.pdf: 3697873 bytes, checksum: f3ccbecacf430eaee0f0606f9daa9f36 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Eliene Soares da Silva (eliene.silva@fgv.br) on 2012-04-25T15:52:36Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 120423 Master Thesis FGV.pdf: 3697873 bytes, checksum: f3ccbecacf430eaee0f0606f9daa9f36 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2012-04-25T15:54:46Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 120423 Master Thesis FGV.pdf: 3697873 bytes, checksum: f3ccbecacf430eaee0f0606f9daa9f36 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-04-23 / Internet Telephony (VoIP) is changing the telecommunication industry. Oftentimes free, VoIP is becoming more and more popular amongst users. Large software companies have entered the market and heavily invest into it. In 2011, for instance, Microsoft bought Skype for 8.5bn USD. This trend increasingly impacts the incumbent telecommunication operators. They see their main source of revenue – classic telephony – under siege and disappear. The thesis at hand develops a most-likely scenario in order to determine how VoIP is evolving further and it predicts, based on a ten-year forecast, the impact it will have on the players in the telecommunication industry.The paper presents a model combining Rogers’ diffusion and Christensen’s innovation research. The model has the goal of explaining the past evolution of VoIP and to isolate the factors that determine the further diffusion of the innovation. Interviews with industry experts serve to assess how the identified factors are evolving.Two propositions are offered. First, VoIP operators are becoming more important in international, corporate, and mobile telephony. End-to-end VoIP (IP2IP) will exhibit strong growth rates and increasingly cannibalize the telephony revenues of the classic operators. Second, fix-net telephony in SMEs and at home will continue to be dominated by the incumbents. Yet, as prices for telephony fall towards zero also they will implement IP2IP in order to save costs. By 2022, up to 90% of the calls will be IP2IP. The author recommends the incumbents and VoIP operators to proactively face the change, to rethink their business strategies, and to even be open for cooperation.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-12-17T14:08:54Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ItaloBS_DISSERT_Parcial.pdf: 1092449 bytes, checksum: 84033c6935995f4df8913ea7b715a8e5 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-01-16 / The study of complex systems has become a prestigious area of science, although relatively young . Its importance was demonstrated by the diversity of applications that several studies have already provided to various fields such as biology , economics and Climatology . In physics , the approach of complex systems is creating paradigms that influence markedly the new methods , bringing to Statistical Physics problems macroscopic level no longer restricted to classical studies such as those of thermodynamics . The present work aims to make a comparison and verification of statistical data on clusters of profiles Sonic ( DT ) , Gamma Ray ( GR ) , induction ( ILD ) , neutron ( NPHI ) and density ( RHOB ) to be physical measured quantities during exploratory drilling of fundamental importance to locate , identify and characterize oil reservoirs . Software were used : Statistica , Matlab R2006a , Origin 6.1 and Fortran for comparison and verification of the data profiles of oil wells ceded the field Namorado School by ANP ( National Petroleum Agency ) . It was possible to demonstrate the importance of the DFA method and that it proved quite satisfactory in that work, coming to the conclusion that the data H ( Hurst exponent ) produce spatial data with greater congestion . Therefore , we find that it is possible to find spatial pattern using the Hurst coefficient . The profiles of 56 wells have confirmed the existence of spatial patterns of Hurst exponents , ie parameter B. The profile does not directly assessed catalogs verification of geological lithology , but reveals a non-random spatial distribution / O estudo dos sistemas complexos tornou-se uma ?rea prestigiada da ci?ncia, apesar de ser relativamente jovem. Sua import?ncia foi comprovada pela diversidade de aplica??es que v?rios estudos j? proporcionaram para campos diversos como os da Biologia, Economia e Climatologia. Na F?sica, a abordagem dos sistemas complexos vem criando paradigmas que influenciam de forma marcante os novos m?todos, trazendo para a F?sica Estat?stica problemas de n?vel macrosc?pico n?o mais restritos a estudos cl?ssicos como os da Termodin?mica. O presente trabalho tem como objetivo fazer uma compara??o e verifica??o dos aglomerados estat?sticos de dados relativos aos perfis de S?nico (DT), Raio Gama (GR), Indu??o (ILD), Neutr?nico (NPHI) e Densidade (RHOB) por serem grandezas f?sicas medidas durante a perfura??o de po?os explorat?rios de fundamental import?ncia para localizar, identificar e caracterizar reservat?rios de petr?leo. Foram utilizados os softwares: Statistica, Matlab R2006a, Origin 6.1 e Fortran para a compara??o e verifica??o dos dados dos perfis de po?os de petr?leo da Escola Campo Namorado cedidos pela ANP (Ag?ncia nacional de petr?leo). Foi poss?vel evidenciar a import?ncia do m?todo DFA e que o mesmo mostrou-se bastante satisfat?rio no referido trabalho, chegando-se a conclus?o que os dados do H (expoente de Hurst) produzem dados espaciais com uma maior aglomera??o. Portanto, constatamos que ? poss?vel encontrar padr?o espacial usando o coeficiente de Hurst. Os perfis dos 56 po?os comprovaram a exist?ncia de padr?es espaciais dos expoentes de Hurst, ou seja, par?metro B. O perfil avaliado n?o cataloga diretamente a verifica??o da litologia geol?gica, mas revela a exist?ncia de uma distribui??o espacial n?o aleat?ria / 2024-12-31

This study aimed at describing the characteristics of daily precipitation and discharge extremes in the Adige river basin at the city of Trento. Annual maximum series for the period 1975−2014 were analyzed in terms of trends, seasonality indices and L-moments. A Mann-Kendall trend analysis showed a weak but significant signal of decreasing ex-tremes; the percentages of sites with significant negative trends were overall larger than the significance levels. Precipitation extremes were characterized primarily by autumn storms, while floods had a stronger seasonality with peaks occurring predominantly in June and July which indicated that the timing not solely explained by rainfall maxima. The Adige basin was found to be a homogenous region with respect to precipitation, but the results did not support a corresponding assumption for discharge. A regional fre-quency analysis was performed for precipitation data and found both the Pearson type III and generalized normal distributions to be adequate regional frequency distributions. The extreme daily precipitation at Trento with a 100-year return period was estimated to be between 114 and 148 mm/d. / Egenskaperna hos extremvärden av dygnsnederbörd och -vattenföring i Adigeflodens av-rinningsområde vid staden Trento undersöktes. Serier med årsmaxima för perioden 1975–2014 analyserades med avseende på trender, säsongsindex och L-moment. Trendanalys med Mann-Kendallmetod antydde en svag men signifikant signal om minskande extrem-värden, då andelen mätstationer med signifikant negativa trender överlag var större än signifikansnivån. Den extrema nederbörden karakteriserades huvudsakligen av höststor-mar, medan vattenföringen hade en starkare säsongsbundenhet då maxima inträffade främst under juni och juli. Vattenföringens extremvärden kunde därmed inte enbart för-klaras av nederbördsmaxima. Avrinningsområdet kunde betraktas som en homogen reg-ion för nederbörd, men resultaten gav inte stöd åt ett motsvarande antagande för vatten-föring. En regional frekvensanalys genomfördes för nederbördsdata och visade att Pear-son typ III och den generaliserade normalfördelningen var lämpliga regionala sannolik-hetsfördelningar. Över Trento uppskattades den extrema dygnsnederbörden med en åter-komstperiod på 100 år till mellan 114 och 148 mm/d.